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Hungary's far-right President Viktor Orban called for a worldwide conservative takeover, predicting at the American Conservative Political Action Committee conference held in Budapest that "2024 will be decisive."

"We need to take back the institutions in Washington and Brussels," Orban said Thursday, delivering the opening remarks for the conference in Budapest. "We need to find friends, and we need to find allies. We need to coordinate the movement of our troops, because we have a big challenge ahead of us."

CPAC organizers chose Hungary for its first European conference because it's "one of the bastions of the conservative resistance to the ultraprogressive 'woke' revolution," according to CPAC's website. Orban is a key figure for the right wing, an example for the conservative movement of how to counter the left in western culture wars. Orban touched on some universal themes for conservatives: gender, critical race theory, cancel culture and censorship on tech platforms, among others.

Orban's biggest applause line came from boasting about a wall he ordered built after the Syrian migrant crisis of 2015, when thousands of Syrians tried to enter Hungary through Serbia.

"We decided to stop migration and build the wall on our southern border because Hungarians said that they did not want illegal immigrants," Orban told CPAC. "They said, 'Viktor, build that wall!' Three months later the border barrier was up."

Orban also railed against the media and called for a takeover, arguing "the madness of the progressive left can only be demonstrated if the media is there to help us do it."

He advised conservatives, "Have your own media. It's the only way to point out the insanity of the progressive left. The problem is that the western media is adjusted to the leftist viewpoint. Those who taught reporters in universities already had progressive leftist principles."

Orban lamented that Republicans have their "media allies," but "they can't compete with the mainstream liberal media." He spoke approvingly of "my friend, Tucker Carlson" as "the only one who puts himself out there," and opined that "programs like his should be broadcasted day and night. Or as you say 24/7."

The conference is being hosted by Hungary's Center for Fundamental Rights, which is funded by the government. Attendees came from across the world, from Europe, Australia, South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.

But the press was mostly home-grown, from state-run Hungarian media. Independent European and U.S. outlets were largely denied access, and CBS News was one of a small number allowed access to the conference. CBS Reports correspondent Adam Yamaguchi, who is in Budapest for the conference, told CBS News that he and his crew were initially turned away from the conference by local organizers, but were eventually allowed in after they contacted CPAC.

Yamaguchi said that it served as a reminder that "in spite of the polarized time we live in," when the mainstream press can be villainized by conservatives, "there's still an American recognition of an independent press. And that doesn't exist everywhere including here."

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Hungary's Orban opens CPAC by telling conservatives "we need to coordinate the movement" of allies - CBS News

With crossings expected to surge when the Covid-related closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to migrants ends, activists are pushing for a new immigration pathway for people who are impacted by climate disasters.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called climate change a threat multiplier that puts compounding pressure on people to move within or outside country borders, and the activists are calling on the Biden administration and Congress to recognize this growing reality by supporting legislation and other efforts to expand legal pathways for climate-displaced people to migrate into the U.S.

Under current law, people impacted by climate may apply for asylum or refugee status in the U.S. only if they can show that the central reason they are fleeing their home country is that they faced or have reason to fear future persecution due to race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group.

The ideal solution is a complementary system of protection in addition to refugee and asylum law enacted through Congress that would guarantee a path to citizenship for people impacted by climate disasters, said Julia Neusner, associate attorney of refugee protection at Human Rights First, a non-profit policy center based in New York City and Washington.

She notes, however, that efforts through Congress are slow and that the passage of a bill that expands refugee protections to people impacted by climate is unlikely to happen soon.

In the absence of legislation, 75 immigration policy experts asked the Biden Administration last year to use its executive authority to offer aid and protection to those fleeing the effects of climate change worldwide by granting parole to otherwise ineligible migrants and allowing them to remain in the country legally on humanitarian grounds.

It is getting to the point where, around the world, we see the climate change impacts overriding a lot of peoples ability to adapt, whether its because they dont have access to what they need, or because things are so severe that there really are not solutions to the challenges theyre facing, said Rebecca Carter, the acting director of climate resilience practice at the World Resources Institute, a global research non-profit based in Washington.

The border crisis isnt new. Central Americans, Haitians, Mexicans and others have been making their way to the U.S. border voluntarily and involuntarily due to worsening violence and persecution for years, and Covid-19 exacerbated the need for people to uproot their lives and migrate. But research shows that the conditions motivating migration to the U.S. are deepening from the impacts of climate change in migrants home countries, inevitably resulting in growing displacement across international borders.

Since the U.S. closed its land ports of entry to almost all migrants more than two years ago, the countrys backlog of pending immigration cases grew to its largest size in history. More than 1.7 million people have been expelled without due process under Title 42, a protocol that allows the Center for Disease Control and Prevention to block non-residents from entering the U.S. under certain conditions to protect public health.

The CDC announced in April that it planned to lift the order, saying that it was no longer necessary for mitigating the spread of Covid-19. After the announcement, more than 20 Republican-led states filed lawsuits in federal court in Louisiana in an attempt to keep the rule in place. On Friday, the judge blocked the Biden administration from ending the order for now.

Proponents of the rule argue that lifting it will lead to an influx of illegal immigration. Mayors in U.S. cities along the border have expressed concerns over the health and safety risks from a surge in migrants as they continue to try to recover from the pandemic as well as deal with an inability to provide shelter to the many asylum seekers they expect to settle on the U.S. side of the border.

The Department of Homeland Security is preparing for upwards of 18,000 migrants a day without Title 42 in place.

The public health order was enacted by the Trump administration in 2020 to mitigate the spread of Covid-19, despite pushback from some CDC officials citing no scientific basis to justify the order. The order prompted human rights advocates to argue that it was used as an excuse to limit immigration and that the halt in immigration doesnt align with the increasing reality of climate change, which has only exacerbated the forces driving people to seek asylum.

The number of people attempting to migrate into the U.S dipped at the beginning of the pandemic and has generally been increasing since. They reached a record high last year at the U.S.-Mexico border. Most of the migrants were from Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

Many of the people migrating north try to cross the border illegally, trekking through the increasingly hot southwestern desert. At least 650 people died last year, many from harsh environmental conditions, while attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, the highest death toll along the border since the International Organization for Migration started tracking the number in 2014.

Thousands of people from Central America and Haiti are waiting along the Mexican side of the border in makeshift campsites and migrant shelters. Some of them have been waiting for more than two years. Some have faced violence and discrimination in Mexico as they wait.

The term climate refugee refers to those displaced by climate change but isnt recognized in international law. The U.N. Refugee Agency refers to them as persons displaced in the context of disasters and climate change, and the International Organization on Migration defines them as environmental migrants or environmentally displaced people.

Their numbers are vast and growing. An IPCC report released earlier this year stated that more than 3.3 billion people live in areas highly vulnerable to climate hazards. In the most extreme climate scenarios, more than 30 million migrants would head toward the U.S. border over the course of the next 30 years, according to a 2020 report by the New York Times Magazine. East and Southeast Asia are seeing more tropical cyclones, the Pacific Islands are quickly being submerged as sea level rises and frequent, intensifying hurricanes are striking Central America. About 21.5 million people relocate as a result of suddenly onsetting weather hazards every year.

Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) reintroduced a bill last year aimed at addressing climate-driven displacement and supporting people displaced by global warming.

Women, children, Indigenous people, and people of color are the most likely to be affected by climate migration, making them even more vulnerable to conflict, violence, and persecution, said Sen. Markey in a statement introducing the proposed bill for the first time in 2019. The United States needs a global strategy for resilience and a plan to deal with migration driven by climate change. We cannot allow climate-displaced persons to fall through the cracks in our system of humanitarian protections simply because they do not meet the definition of refugee.

The bill has been sitting in committee since April, and its passage is unlikely any time soon, according to Carrie Rosenbaum, an immigration law professor at the University of California Berkeley. The immigration crisis is treated as a national security problem and not a humanitarian one, and both Republicans and moderate Democrats dont want more immigration, period, said Rosenbaum, one of the immigration attorneys who signed the letter to the Biden administration last year.

Elizabeth Keyes, the director of the University of Baltimores Immigrant Rights Clinic, said that while the proposed legislation known as the Climate Displaced Persons Act is a worthy pursuit, the challenge will be that migrants dont fit neatly into definitions of a climate displaced person.

Determining who meets that definition is complex. Research shows that peoples decisions to migrate arent sudden, said Robert McLeman, a professor of environmental studies and geography at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, noting that they often come after years of slow-onset disasters.

Most do not want to migrate. If they do end up displaced, the relocation is usually within country borders, and they often return to their homes, said McLeman, who coauthored an IPCC report released in March dealing with climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre estimated that of the 38 million displacements within country borders worldwide last year, 23.7 million of them resulted from climate disasters, including extreme temperatures, storms, cyclones, hurricanes and wildfires. The centre noted that not all of the environmental events in these categories were caused by climate change. Upwards of 216 million people around the world are expected to move within their country borders for climate-related reasons by mid-century, according to a report by the World Bank.

It is only after people try to adapt and are still left with no other options that they consider migrating abroad, researchers said. Sea level rise submerging the Pacific Islands is one of the few cases where climate change is the sole factor prompting migration into other countries, according to a report by the Brookings Institution, a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, D.C.

Hein de Haas, a Dutch sociologist and one of the founding members of the International Migration Institute at the University of Oxford, warned that there is no direct correlation between climate change and mobility. The poorest populations in the poorest countries are less likely to move than those who are slightly better off, and climate and weather are not the only factors that determine peoples decision to migrate, he told the EUobserver.

Carter, of the World Resources Institute, said that climate change is rarely the only factor for migration. Data shows that the impacts of climate change can be a real push for people and can lead to greater instability and violence, she said.

In Honduras, for example, weather extremes have caused a chain reaction of pressures to migrate. Farmers in Honduras that are part of Central Americas dry corridor are battling droughts that have disastrous impacts on cultivation, Inside Climate News reported. This leads to dwindling food supplies, creating destabilization and conflict inside the country and in surrounding countries.

Keyes, one of the 75 experts who signed the letter, said that she also sees the linkage of climate change with instability and violence in Central America, where a majority of her clients are from, as resources and arable land in the region diminish due to drought, hurricanes and other extreme climate events. She started seeing more cases that involved climate issues about three or four years ago.

Its not that people are not coming to me saying Im affected by climate, but when you dig around the context, climate is driving a lot of either general violence or specific land disputes, so land-related asylum claims are becoming much more common, said Keyes.

Organized crime heightened by tensions over natural resources is a big driver of migration in the region, said Neusner, of Human Rights First. Farmers who are extorted to give a portion of their income to violent gangs, for example, find themselves in life-or-death situations when droughts and floods devastate their farms, which is happening more frequently and more intensely as a result of climate change. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, 60 percent of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world are also affected by armed conflict, including violence from organized crime.

Because organized crime controls so much of many peoples lives, especially in the northern triangle and in Mexico, there are many people whose persecution has been made a lot worse by climate disasters, said Neusner.

In the absence of an asylum process for climate migrants, Keyes said that the U.S. could expand eligibility to more countries to apply for Temporary Protective Status, a designation that enables citizens of certain nations torn by armed conflict or devastated by hurricanes, earthquakes and other environmental disasters to legally remain in the U.S. until it is deemed that they can return home safely.

But Keyes said that while such protective status could help, it is not a solution to the bigger problem of climate-displaced migrants being unable to seek long-term protection in the U.S. in a safe and fair way. Temporary Protective Status doesnt provide a path for permanent residency or citizenship, she said, and is only available to people already in the U.S. In 1998, the U.S. designated Hondurans and Nicaraguans as eligible for Temporary Protective Status after Hurricane Mitch, a storm that killed more than 8,600 people, struck the two countries.

Biden has expanded temporary protection since he took office, and there have been legislative efforts to provide a path for permanent residency and citizenship to TPS holders, but they have been unsuccessful so far.

The 75 immigration experts who wrote to Biden last year also called for an expansion of Temporary Protective Status and a process called Deferred Enforced Departure in which climate-displaced persons would not be subject to removal from the U.S. for a specific period of time. But the experts also noted the temporary nature of Bidens executive powers under current law.

Because the U.S. refugee system was not necessarily designed to receive climate-displaced persons, existing U.S. refugee mechanisms do not adequately meet their needs, the experts wrote. In the United States, current executive powers lend themselves only to temporary solutions. These temporary solutions can help meet urgent immediate need for protection, but we emphasize that climate-displaced persons need statutory protection that recognizes the long-term nature of their displacement.

ICN provides award-winning climate coverage free of charge and advertising. We rely on donations from readers like you to keep going.

Following two executive orders by President Biden to address the climate crisis impacts in the U.S. and abroad, the National Security Council released a report in October that recognized the relationship between climate change and migration, and they highlighted the importance of supporting efforts that enable people to stay as safe as possible in their home countries.

The report mentions the need to fund resilience and adaptation projects in countries that are also those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. These also happen to be the countries that have contributed the fewest greenhouse gas emissions, and ultimately are the least responsible for the impacts of climate change.

In their letter to Biden, the 75 experts clearly focused on what the U.S. should be doing for climate migrants, as opposed to adaptation and mitigation efforts in their countries of origin. The experts called on the Biden administration to put climate migrants among others with top priority in the asylum process. And they recommended that the U.N. revise its own resettlement criteria to also give higher priority to climate migrants.

These measures would not only signal to other nations that the United States stands ready to do its part in the fight against climate change, they wrote, but they would also improve our relationships with nations disproportionately affected by climate change and related disasters.

Aydali Campa covers environmental justice as a Roy W. Howard investigative fellow at Inside Climate News. She grew up on the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona and taught third and fourth grade in Oklahoma City before pursuing a masters degree in investigative journalism from Arizona State University. As a bilingual reporter with experience in multimedia, she has covered education, Covid-19 and transborder issues. Her previous work can be seen in The Wall Street Journal, The Arizona Republic and Arizona PBS.

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Climate Migrants Lack a Clear Path to Asylum in the US - InsideClimate News

That is probably all for today.... heres our news story on the main news event of the day, president Zelenskiys speech:

And some background reading about how Davos isnt quite the same this year.

Well be back tomorrow. GW

Updated at 11.54EDT

Finishing on a positive note, David Rubenstein argues that the current crisis is a less serious economic shock than the Covid-19 crisis, the financial crisis, or the dot-com bust.

Itll be a mild recession, if its a recession, he says. [actually, hes been using banana for recession, echoing an advisor to President Carter who didnt want to scare the electorate].

Onto the crypto crash, and David Rubenstein makes a salient point:

And on the turmoil in stablecoins, Georgieva says that when a stablecoin is backed 1-to-1 with its underlying asset, then its stable. If not, then its a pyramid - and pyramids eventually collapse.

Regulating the stablecoins, ensuring interoperability of CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) is something we need to work on, she adds.

Heres a video clip of IMF chief Kristaline Georgieva warning a few minutes ago that 2022 will be a tough year (as it has been already!).

She also points out that the oil price dipped in the last week on signs of economic slowdown, but food kept rising.

Thats because you can shrink petrol use when growth slows, but people still have to eat every day.

Billionaire businessman David Rubenstein tells the Global Economic Outlook panel that the markets have overreacted this year, with Wall Street tumbling to around bear market territory.

And he denies that the slump in technology stocks this year is a repeat of the dot-com crash in 2000.

Back then, companies with little more than a business plan, without revenues let alone profits, had floated in the dot-com boom. Its not the same situation today.

IMF managing director Kristaline Georgieva adds that two countries are already in recesssion -- Ukraine (which could contract by 35% this year), and Russia.

Others, such as Sri Lanka, have been caught up in debt crisis due to the shocks from the war.

A Davos panel on the global economic outlook is also underway.

And it starts with a show of hands -- how many of the brains trust at the World Economic Forum are concerned that we are going into recession?

About half the hands in the room go up.

Q: So are we already in recession in some countries?

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva says not, but warns that the economic outlook has darkened since the IMFs last forecasts.

She cites the food crisis, saying that anxiety over access to food at a reasonable price, globally, is hitting the roof.

Plus, the climate crisis has gone nowhere and the digital money has hit a little rough spot (the slump in cryptocurrency assets).

Looking ahead, Georgieva says we may see recessions in some countries which were weak, perhaps hadnt recovered from the pandemic, or very dependent on Russian oil.

But we have not seen that yet, she insists.

However, Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup is also on the panel, and she warns that Russia, Recession and (interest) Rates are the key factors to watch.

Asked if Europe will experience a recession, Fraser replies Yes, adding that she hopes shes wrong.

[On rates, European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said today the ECB is likely to start raising interest rates in July and exit sub-zero territory by the end of September.

That made the ECN the latest central banker to turn more hawkish, in the face of high inflation].

More from the panel:

Updated at 11.28EDT

With the World Cup in Qatar looming at the end of the year, the event had its own session in Davos.

A feisty affair with over the top tackles it was not, as the panel dished out platitude after platitude.

Gianni Infantino, the president of FIFA, said five billion people would tune in and it would be the best World Cup ever.

Patrice Motsepe, president of the Confederation of African Football, said he couldnt think of a better place to hold the World Cup.

Ronaldo, the Brazilian striker, said it was marvelous he was a role model to todays superstars. Former Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger spent a couple of minutes talking about how good coaching was about getting the best out of people.

Nobody was going to get into trouble mentioning the circumstances under which Qatar was awarded the right to hold the tournament or the deaths of workers on the construction sites.

The Amir of the State of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, has hit out at criticism over its hosting of the World Cup late this year.

In a keynote speech here in Davos, the Amir says the Middle East has suffered from discrimination for decades - from people not knowing us, and in some cases refusing to get to know us.

He says:

Even today there are still people who cannot accept the idea that an Arab Muslim country would host a tournament like the World Cup.

He adds:

These individuals, including many in positions of influence, have launched attacks at a pace not seen before when a mega sporting event was hosted by other countries on different continents,

He doesnt say any particular countries, but that each had its own particular problems and challenges.

However.... concerns over human rights protections in Qatar are well documented, with Amnesty reporting that tens of thousands of migrant workers still face forced labour.

Last year, the Guardian reported that more than 6,500 migrant workers from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have died in Qatar since it won the right to host the World Cup 10 years ago.

And last week, a group of non-government organisations said Fifa should pay reparations of at least $440m (356m) to migrant workers whose human rights have been compromised by the Qatar World Cup.

Plus, there are also concerns about the safety of LGBTQ+ people in Qatar, given same-sex relationships are directly criminalised under the laws of the Gulf state.

The economic disruption caused by Covid-19 and the Ukraine war will drive up inflation, hit growth and create more food insecurity, a new survey just released show.

The World Economic Forums Community of Chief Economists predicts further declines in real wages in both high- and low-income economies, as inflation rises faster than pay.

The world faces the worst food insecurity in recent history especially in the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Developing economies face trade-offs between the risk of debt crisis and securing food and fuel, it adds, (as Sri Lanka showed by defaulting last week).

Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the World Economic Forum, warns the world is on the cusp of a vicious cycle that could impact societies for years, and erase the progress since the end of the cold war.

The pandemic and war in Ukraine have fragmented the global economy and created far-reaching consequences that risk wiping out the gains of the last 30 years.

Leaders face difficult choices and trade-offs domestically when it comes to debt, inflation and investment. Yet business and government leaders must also recognise the absolute necessity of global cooperation to prevent economic misery and hunger for millions around the world.

Gabriela Bucher, executive director of Oxfam, says developed economies are neglecting the Covid-19 crisis in emerging economies - with potentially deadly results.

Bucher tells a Davos panel that vaccine injustice is a risk.

The rich world moves on, thinking that Covid is no longer a problem as they are vaccinated. So they forget that global south still faces waves of the virus, and low vaccination rates (just 15% across Africa).

She says:

The focus moves away and that is not addressed.

Bucher explains that the vaccine isnt yet readily available globally at the scale needed. That means that...

...in six months, the complacency that is perhaps felt now could be really deadly.

Modernas CEO, Stphane Bancel, agrees that there are several reasons to worry, both in the south and the north.

In the US, only half of vaccinated people got boosted with a third dose, so he worries about the next fall (autumn) and winter as their antibody levels falls.

Chinas outbreaks are a concern too; a more infectious virus is harder to control with the measures which were very successful in 2020.

We always need to be humble with biology - and remember that a more virulent virus could emerge over time, says Bancel.

It was good news that Omicron was less virulent than Delta, but we are always a day away, a week away, a month away or a quarter away from a new variant thats more virulent.

Updated at 10.05EDT

Michael McCaul, Republican congressman, has warned that the Ukraine conflict could lead to a new hot war between Russia and the West.

Speaking on a panel here in Davos, McCaul says Russias tactics have been almost World War Two-style, and that the US military have been astonished by how incompetent Russias military have been.

Putin has totally miscalculated, he says, having lost a third of its invasion force.

But warning that the conflict could escalate, McCaul (who represents Texas 10th Congressional District) says:

Its a cold war, but its on the verge of becoming a hot war.

He points out that Putin has now brought in the Butcher of Syria (General Aleksandr Dvornikov) and put him in charge of the war.

McCaul says the biggest concern is that the Butcher of Syria could use chemical weapons, or a tactical nuclear weapon.

We need to think about how NATO, and the world, would respond if that happened, he adds.

Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group is also on the panel, which asks if a new Cold War is taking shape between major powers.

Bremmer says we are in a new cold war, and closer to a new hot war than hed like.

But while there has been a forced decoupling, putting Russia into a lot of trouble and a pariah state with the West, it is not a pariah for countries such as India, China, and Brazil.

Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze says the conflict is between world and anti-world, and that Ukraine needs more sanctions, more weapons, more backing.

Go here to read the rest:
Davos day one: Zelenskiy calls for maximum sanctions against Russia; recession fears on the rise business live - The Guardian

International refugee protections were established in the aftermath of World War II when, for the second time in a generation, Europe was reeling from a large-scale conflict that displaced millions of people across the continent. Since this system was formalized, countries have colloquially been grouped into three classifications: origin, transit, and receiving countries. While evolving crises have forced some governments to transition between categories, we are now seeing a new trend in how countries treat receiving obligations in particular. Over the past 10 years, countries that have traditionally been viewed as receiving countries have implemented various policies that aim to discharge responsibility for and dismantle refugee protections. This would create a new standard whereby receiving countries no longer participate in the care of persecuted people.

A countrys role in a migrant crisis can always change. Whether a country becomes a point of transit depends on the location of the crisis. To play the receiving role, a country must be able to resettle large numbers of people efficiently. Countries can act in multiple capacities for example, Turkey has served as both a transit and a receiving country during the Syrian crisis. Countries can also take on different roles in different crises. For example, Poland primarily acts as a transit country for Ukrainian refugees but is a receiving country for Syrians. Some countries, like Canada and Iceland, are more insulated, which allows them to act almost exclusively as receiving countries.

What scholars have referred to as The Long Peace has changed our view of these roles. The era since WWII has been defined by unprecedented peace among the great powers. When refugee protections were established in the initial aftermath of WWII, that peace was fragile. Refugee protections were seen both as a way to establish dominance in the new world order by demonstrating an economy that is strong enough to provide for a growing population and as a show of goodwill in the international community. They were also viewed as mutually beneficial should that fragile peace collapse.

As peace continued among the great powers, the international community began to view the absence of conflict among European countries as an eternal truce. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrated how precarious that peace could be. The immediate and strong condemnation of Russias actions reflected the fear from the international community that this invasion had broken the prolonged sense of peace.

The Long Peace also had detrimental effects on how the international community views refugee protections. Many established receiving countries now view refugee protections as a relic of times of conflict and a burden in times of peace. This viewpoint allows the international community to make exceptions for Ukrainians, as their crisis is seen as a rare exception to the Long Peace.

Recently, many countries have been implementing policies to deter, deny, and deport refugees and asylum seekers. The U.S. has effectively barred asylum seekers through Migrant Protection Protocols and Title 42, which the Biden administration has only madehalf-hearted attemptsto repeal. In Europe,Belarus,Greece,Denmark, and theU.K. have enacted policies to shift asylum seekers away from their borders.Japan, which accepts less than 1 percent of refugee and asylum applications, has proposed legislation that would expand the use of detention and limit access to appeals for asylum seekers.Australiahas been forcing asylum seekers into informal refugee camps in Papua New Guinea and Nauru for almost a decade to deter future migrants.

Political instability, natural disasters, and violent conflict continue to force people from their homes. However, receiving countries have settled into the misconception that they are immune from their own humanitarian crisis. They can only see themselves as a receiving country, unable to succumb to a crisis that would designate them as an origin country. These countries think they have already done their part after resettling large percentages of the refugee population each year. They have placed a metaphorical timer on how long countries need to care for their neighbors in times of crisis.

This pattern of anti-refugee policies has closed off traditional migratory pathways but has also spurred other countries to build out their immigration infrastructure to fill the gap.For example, Colombiahas not only welcomed almost 2 million Venezuelan migrants but has given them Temporary Protected Status, which allows them to live and work for 10 years freely.Germanyhosts the largest population of refugees in Europe, andRwandaseeks to expand its immigration infrastructure to accommodate asylum seekers relocated by Europe. However, these countries could follow in the footsteps of others and dismantle their systems when they decide they have done enough.

There are currently more displaced people than ever before and fewer places for refugees to be efficiently resettled and we should be prepared for more movement in years to come. There is an urgent need to hold governments to the promises they made to ensure that we have the necessary infrastructure to provide for these people. If we allow governments to decide that they no longer have to uphold the commitment to care for refugees in times of duress, we undermine the premise of protecting those most in need.

Photo credit: iStock

See more here:
The international community is failing refugees - Niskanen Center

Seeing his son with the water below his waist, standing firm on the stones of the riverbed, Pablo Cuevas ruled out using the 60-meter rope he had bought to cross the Rio Grande with his family, because it would prove more of a hindrance than a useful tool in their desperate attempt to reach American soil.

Dad! The river is calm! shouted the 22-year-old from about 30 meters away from the bank. Faced with the imminent arrival of Mexican or American border agents, the man let go of the rope, hugged his five-year-old grandson very tightly and entered the waters. It was mid-morning on April 17, less than a month ago. The Rio Grande, a treacherous river according to the migrants who have lived to tell the tale, was calm that day. It was a lucky break for this family that fled Nicaragua because of their fathers job: Pablo Cuevas is a renowned human rights defender in his country.

Accustomed to tense situations back home due to his clashes with gangs and police officers under the dictatorship of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, Cuevas concealed his fear of jumping into the river so that his wife, daughter-in-law and his other grandson would not lose the courage they had rehearsed during the 40-day journey to Ciudad Acua, in Mexicos Coahuila state. The trip had taken them across Central America and Mexico, along a road rife with robberies, kidnappings, extortion, fatigue, hunger and death that 49,738 Nicaraguans followed in the first quarter of 2022 alone, according to the United States Customs and Border Protection. That is the largest number of migrants from this country to try to cross the US border in recent history.

It was on the first week of March, as he sat inside his home in Managua, that Cuevas made the decision to join this unprecedented exodus to escape the political violence and precarious economic situation that Nicaragua has been experiencing since 2018, following social protests that were brutally repressed. by the police and paramilitary groups. The countrys sociopolitical crisis has deepened since June 2021, when the Ortega-Murillo presidential couple intensified the hunt for opponents that facilitated Ortegas re-election and perpetuation in power.

Before the government closed the CPDH (Permanent Human Rights Commission), says Cuevas, alluding to the last such organization left in Nicaragua, I received threats and intimidating messages. Someone from the government told me that I had better leave... I have never been a fan of desk jobs, I always liked to be out doing field work, but there came a point when I could no longer practice freely, and my wife was having nervous breakdowns thinking that they could arrest me at any moment. So we decided to leave, and the route through the Rio Grande seemed the best, after analyzing it with many users I had who had already crossed into the United States, he tells EL PAS.

The Cuevas familys greatest fear was drowning in the river. Between March and April 2022, news of Nicaraguans killed in those waters shocked the country: 10 people registered by the Association of Nicaraguans in Mexico, although there are other agencies that put the number at 14, such as the non-profit Comunidad Nicaragense en Texas. There were cases like that of a four-year-old girl swept away by the current, or the most recent drowning, on May 1, of Calixto Nelson Rojas, a radio host for Radio Daro, a station that was burned and attacked by the Sandinista regime. The death of the radio journalist was recorded by a Fox News reporter: it happened before the eyes of US and Mexican border agents who did not help him because they were prohibited from doing so, even as Rojas cried out for help. The reason for not saving him was that a Border Patrol officer allegedly drowned weeks ago while trying to rescue two migrants.

Cuevas, a man who was well informed thanks to his work as a human rights defender, knew about the dangers of crossing the river. We began to do introspection exercises with the family, to remember one of our camping trips to the sea in Nicaragua, specifically once an undercurrent dragged us out to sea, but we were able to swim and save ourselves, says the lawyer, who is now living in Florida, where he has started an organization to help other Nicaraguan migrants. So I told my family to remember to bury their feet firmly in the bottom so we could cross the river.

The Cuevas were able to cross without a rope and without a life jacket. However, some 3,000 kilometers south of the Rio Grande, in Nicaragua, dozens who have decided to leave the country and do not know how to swim are taking precautions before heading north: they are signing up for Mario Orozcos swimming lessons.

With no major signs of a solution to the sociopolitical crisis, Nicaragua has become a country on the run. In 2021 alone, the United States Border Patrol tallied 87,530 Nicaraguans who tried to enter the southern border without documents. An exponential increase occurred in June, when the Ortega-Murillos imprisoned all their adversaries and ended the possibility of a resolution to the conflict through transparent elections. If one asks people in Nicaragua about the best decision in this scenario, the majority, especially young people, will answer the same thing: to leave. Migrant groups leave at dawn from some gas stations in Managua, while others who feel politically persecuted, such as Pablo Cuevas, do so clandestinely across the Honduran border.

Border Patrol figures from January to March of this year provide a measure of this booming exodus: 70,066 Nicaraguans have surrendered to patrol officers. But there is an underreporting, says the Association of Nicaraguans in Mexico. There has been a change in the migratory dynamics from this country, driven by political violence that has aggravated endemic ills (a precarious economy and lack of jobs). In 2018, at least 120,000 Nicaraguans applied for asylum in Costa Rica. But the pandemic plunged this latter country into an unemployment crisis and Nicaraguans reconfigured their flight path. First, because Costa Rica has collapsed and second, because Joe Bidens immigration promises were interpreted as greater flexibility by the US government.

Suddenly, the migrant caravans in which Hondurans and Salvadorans used to predominate began to be led by Nicaraguans, who are now also prey to the mafias along the route. Among those preparing to flee the country, crossing the Rio Grande became the best option despite the dangers of its waters. That is why the post on Facebook by professional swimmer Mario Orozco offering free lessons went viral in Nicaragua.

Orozco assures that some of his friends drowned in the Rio Grande and that moved him into action. I am a professional swimmer, I know the techniques to swim in open waters. So I took one of my days off to teach and avoid these tragedies, he says, emphasizing that his work is humanitarian and not political. The swimmer is concise and prefers not to delve into details. He does not say why but, for those who live in Nicaragua, it is understood: anything that the Sandinista government views as criticism can cost jail time.

The pool where Orozco teaches is usually packed, as a reflection of the urgency to leave Nicaragua. I know it is a dangerous river, says Roberto Garca, a Nicaraguan who left the country a few weeks ago and is now in Tapachula, Mexico, where he is preparing myself mentally to ford the Rio Grande. There are those who take swimming lessons; I, for example, am watching YouTube videos, asking other friends who have already crossed where it is less deep; the current less strong I am afraid, but the situation is more critical when I am going to cross with my son, confesses Garca, an auto refrigeration technician who used to provide services to the Supreme Court of Justice.

Garca was imprisoned for seven months for participating in the 2018 protests in Nicaragua. Upon release from prison, his workshop was never able to recover due to police harassment and lack of customers. Weary, he decided to migrate. I dont even want to think about the day Im going to cross the river with my wife and son. It unsettles me. My son is 10 years old and I only think of him, especially when I see so many brothers drowning in the news like that announcer from Len. It was a horrible video. One feels powerless. I dont want a similar video of us, he says. He also doesnt want to leave one last message like that of the radio host Calixto Rojas before jumping into the waters of the Rio Grande: Today Im leaving for Piedras Negras at one in the afternoon. Tomorrow at eight I will be trying to cross the river.

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The Nicaraguans who are learning to swim to avoid drowning in US river crossing - EL PAS in English