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That is probably all for today.... heres our news story on the main news event of the day, president Zelenskiys speech:

And some background reading about how Davos isnt quite the same this year.

Well be back tomorrow. GW

Updated at 11.54EDT

Finishing on a positive note, David Rubenstein argues that the current crisis is a less serious economic shock than the Covid-19 crisis, the financial crisis, or the dot-com bust.

Itll be a mild recession, if its a recession, he says. [actually, hes been using banana for recession, echoing an advisor to President Carter who didnt want to scare the electorate].

Onto the crypto crash, and David Rubenstein makes a salient point:

And on the turmoil in stablecoins, Georgieva says that when a stablecoin is backed 1-to-1 with its underlying asset, then its stable. If not, then its a pyramid - and pyramids eventually collapse.

Regulating the stablecoins, ensuring interoperability of CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) is something we need to work on, she adds.

Heres a video clip of IMF chief Kristaline Georgieva warning a few minutes ago that 2022 will be a tough year (as it has been already!).

She also points out that the oil price dipped in the last week on signs of economic slowdown, but food kept rising.

Thats because you can shrink petrol use when growth slows, but people still have to eat every day.

Billionaire businessman David Rubenstein tells the Global Economic Outlook panel that the markets have overreacted this year, with Wall Street tumbling to around bear market territory.

And he denies that the slump in technology stocks this year is a repeat of the dot-com crash in 2000.

Back then, companies with little more than a business plan, without revenues let alone profits, had floated in the dot-com boom. Its not the same situation today.

IMF managing director Kristaline Georgieva adds that two countries are already in recesssion -- Ukraine (which could contract by 35% this year), and Russia.

Others, such as Sri Lanka, have been caught up in debt crisis due to the shocks from the war.

A Davos panel on the global economic outlook is also underway.

And it starts with a show of hands -- how many of the brains trust at the World Economic Forum are concerned that we are going into recession?

About half the hands in the room go up.

Q: So are we already in recession in some countries?

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva says not, but warns that the economic outlook has darkened since the IMFs last forecasts.

She cites the food crisis, saying that anxiety over access to food at a reasonable price, globally, is hitting the roof.

Plus, the climate crisis has gone nowhere and the digital money has hit a little rough spot (the slump in cryptocurrency assets).

Looking ahead, Georgieva says we may see recessions in some countries which were weak, perhaps hadnt recovered from the pandemic, or very dependent on Russian oil.

But we have not seen that yet, she insists.

However, Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup is also on the panel, and she warns that Russia, Recession and (interest) Rates are the key factors to watch.

Asked if Europe will experience a recession, Fraser replies Yes, adding that she hopes shes wrong.

[On rates, European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said today the ECB is likely to start raising interest rates in July and exit sub-zero territory by the end of September.

That made the ECN the latest central banker to turn more hawkish, in the face of high inflation].

More from the panel:

Updated at 11.28EDT

With the World Cup in Qatar looming at the end of the year, the event had its own session in Davos.

A feisty affair with over the top tackles it was not, as the panel dished out platitude after platitude.

Gianni Infantino, the president of FIFA, said five billion people would tune in and it would be the best World Cup ever.

Patrice Motsepe, president of the Confederation of African Football, said he couldnt think of a better place to hold the World Cup.

Ronaldo, the Brazilian striker, said it was marvelous he was a role model to todays superstars. Former Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger spent a couple of minutes talking about how good coaching was about getting the best out of people.

Nobody was going to get into trouble mentioning the circumstances under which Qatar was awarded the right to hold the tournament or the deaths of workers on the construction sites.

The Amir of the State of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, has hit out at criticism over its hosting of the World Cup late this year.

In a keynote speech here in Davos, the Amir says the Middle East has suffered from discrimination for decades - from people not knowing us, and in some cases refusing to get to know us.

He says:

Even today there are still people who cannot accept the idea that an Arab Muslim country would host a tournament like the World Cup.

He adds:

These individuals, including many in positions of influence, have launched attacks at a pace not seen before when a mega sporting event was hosted by other countries on different continents,

He doesnt say any particular countries, but that each had its own particular problems and challenges.

However.... concerns over human rights protections in Qatar are well documented, with Amnesty reporting that tens of thousands of migrant workers still face forced labour.

Last year, the Guardian reported that more than 6,500 migrant workers from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have died in Qatar since it won the right to host the World Cup 10 years ago.

And last week, a group of non-government organisations said Fifa should pay reparations of at least $440m (356m) to migrant workers whose human rights have been compromised by the Qatar World Cup.

Plus, there are also concerns about the safety of LGBTQ+ people in Qatar, given same-sex relationships are directly criminalised under the laws of the Gulf state.

The economic disruption caused by Covid-19 and the Ukraine war will drive up inflation, hit growth and create more food insecurity, a new survey just released show.

The World Economic Forums Community of Chief Economists predicts further declines in real wages in both high- and low-income economies, as inflation rises faster than pay.

The world faces the worst food insecurity in recent history especially in the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Developing economies face trade-offs between the risk of debt crisis and securing food and fuel, it adds, (as Sri Lanka showed by defaulting last week).

Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the World Economic Forum, warns the world is on the cusp of a vicious cycle that could impact societies for years, and erase the progress since the end of the cold war.

The pandemic and war in Ukraine have fragmented the global economy and created far-reaching consequences that risk wiping out the gains of the last 30 years.

Leaders face difficult choices and trade-offs domestically when it comes to debt, inflation and investment. Yet business and government leaders must also recognise the absolute necessity of global cooperation to prevent economic misery and hunger for millions around the world.

Gabriela Bucher, executive director of Oxfam, says developed economies are neglecting the Covid-19 crisis in emerging economies - with potentially deadly results.

Bucher tells a Davos panel that vaccine injustice is a risk.

The rich world moves on, thinking that Covid is no longer a problem as they are vaccinated. So they forget that global south still faces waves of the virus, and low vaccination rates (just 15% across Africa).

She says:

The focus moves away and that is not addressed.

Bucher explains that the vaccine isnt yet readily available globally at the scale needed. That means that...

...in six months, the complacency that is perhaps felt now could be really deadly.

Modernas CEO, Stphane Bancel, agrees that there are several reasons to worry, both in the south and the north.

In the US, only half of vaccinated people got boosted with a third dose, so he worries about the next fall (autumn) and winter as their antibody levels falls.

Chinas outbreaks are a concern too; a more infectious virus is harder to control with the measures which were very successful in 2020.

We always need to be humble with biology - and remember that a more virulent virus could emerge over time, says Bancel.

It was good news that Omicron was less virulent than Delta, but we are always a day away, a week away, a month away or a quarter away from a new variant thats more virulent.

Updated at 10.05EDT

Michael McCaul, Republican congressman, has warned that the Ukraine conflict could lead to a new hot war between Russia and the West.

Speaking on a panel here in Davos, McCaul says Russias tactics have been almost World War Two-style, and that the US military have been astonished by how incompetent Russias military have been.

Putin has totally miscalculated, he says, having lost a third of its invasion force.

But warning that the conflict could escalate, McCaul (who represents Texas 10th Congressional District) says:

Its a cold war, but its on the verge of becoming a hot war.

He points out that Putin has now brought in the Butcher of Syria (General Aleksandr Dvornikov) and put him in charge of the war.

McCaul says the biggest concern is that the Butcher of Syria could use chemical weapons, or a tactical nuclear weapon.

We need to think about how NATO, and the world, would respond if that happened, he adds.

Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group is also on the panel, which asks if a new Cold War is taking shape between major powers.

Bremmer says we are in a new cold war, and closer to a new hot war than hed like.

But while there has been a forced decoupling, putting Russia into a lot of trouble and a pariah state with the West, it is not a pariah for countries such as India, China, and Brazil.

Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze says the conflict is between world and anti-world, and that Ukraine needs more sanctions, more weapons, more backing.

Go here to read the rest:
Davos day one: Zelenskiy calls for maximum sanctions against Russia; recession fears on the rise business live - The Guardian

International refugee protections were established in the aftermath of World War II when, for the second time in a generation, Europe was reeling from a large-scale conflict that displaced millions of people across the continent. Since this system was formalized, countries have colloquially been grouped into three classifications: origin, transit, and receiving countries. While evolving crises have forced some governments to transition between categories, we are now seeing a new trend in how countries treat receiving obligations in particular. Over the past 10 years, countries that have traditionally been viewed as receiving countries have implemented various policies that aim to discharge responsibility for and dismantle refugee protections. This would create a new standard whereby receiving countries no longer participate in the care of persecuted people.

A countrys role in a migrant crisis can always change. Whether a country becomes a point of transit depends on the location of the crisis. To play the receiving role, a country must be able to resettle large numbers of people efficiently. Countries can act in multiple capacities for example, Turkey has served as both a transit and a receiving country during the Syrian crisis. Countries can also take on different roles in different crises. For example, Poland primarily acts as a transit country for Ukrainian refugees but is a receiving country for Syrians. Some countries, like Canada and Iceland, are more insulated, which allows them to act almost exclusively as receiving countries.

What scholars have referred to as The Long Peace has changed our view of these roles. The era since WWII has been defined by unprecedented peace among the great powers. When refugee protections were established in the initial aftermath of WWII, that peace was fragile. Refugee protections were seen both as a way to establish dominance in the new world order by demonstrating an economy that is strong enough to provide for a growing population and as a show of goodwill in the international community. They were also viewed as mutually beneficial should that fragile peace collapse.

As peace continued among the great powers, the international community began to view the absence of conflict among European countries as an eternal truce. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrated how precarious that peace could be. The immediate and strong condemnation of Russias actions reflected the fear from the international community that this invasion had broken the prolonged sense of peace.

The Long Peace also had detrimental effects on how the international community views refugee protections. Many established receiving countries now view refugee protections as a relic of times of conflict and a burden in times of peace. This viewpoint allows the international community to make exceptions for Ukrainians, as their crisis is seen as a rare exception to the Long Peace.

Recently, many countries have been implementing policies to deter, deny, and deport refugees and asylum seekers. The U.S. has effectively barred asylum seekers through Migrant Protection Protocols and Title 42, which the Biden administration has only madehalf-hearted attemptsto repeal. In Europe,Belarus,Greece,Denmark, and theU.K. have enacted policies to shift asylum seekers away from their borders.Japan, which accepts less than 1 percent of refugee and asylum applications, has proposed legislation that would expand the use of detention and limit access to appeals for asylum seekers.Australiahas been forcing asylum seekers into informal refugee camps in Papua New Guinea and Nauru for almost a decade to deter future migrants.

Political instability, natural disasters, and violent conflict continue to force people from their homes. However, receiving countries have settled into the misconception that they are immune from their own humanitarian crisis. They can only see themselves as a receiving country, unable to succumb to a crisis that would designate them as an origin country. These countries think they have already done their part after resettling large percentages of the refugee population each year. They have placed a metaphorical timer on how long countries need to care for their neighbors in times of crisis.

This pattern of anti-refugee policies has closed off traditional migratory pathways but has also spurred other countries to build out their immigration infrastructure to fill the gap.For example, Colombiahas not only welcomed almost 2 million Venezuelan migrants but has given them Temporary Protected Status, which allows them to live and work for 10 years freely.Germanyhosts the largest population of refugees in Europe, andRwandaseeks to expand its immigration infrastructure to accommodate asylum seekers relocated by Europe. However, these countries could follow in the footsteps of others and dismantle their systems when they decide they have done enough.

There are currently more displaced people than ever before and fewer places for refugees to be efficiently resettled and we should be prepared for more movement in years to come. There is an urgent need to hold governments to the promises they made to ensure that we have the necessary infrastructure to provide for these people. If we allow governments to decide that they no longer have to uphold the commitment to care for refugees in times of duress, we undermine the premise of protecting those most in need.

Photo credit: iStock

See more here:
The international community is failing refugees - Niskanen Center

Seeing his son with the water below his waist, standing firm on the stones of the riverbed, Pablo Cuevas ruled out using the 60-meter rope he had bought to cross the Rio Grande with his family, because it would prove more of a hindrance than a useful tool in their desperate attempt to reach American soil.

Dad! The river is calm! shouted the 22-year-old from about 30 meters away from the bank. Faced with the imminent arrival of Mexican or American border agents, the man let go of the rope, hugged his five-year-old grandson very tightly and entered the waters. It was mid-morning on April 17, less than a month ago. The Rio Grande, a treacherous river according to the migrants who have lived to tell the tale, was calm that day. It was a lucky break for this family that fled Nicaragua because of their fathers job: Pablo Cuevas is a renowned human rights defender in his country.

Accustomed to tense situations back home due to his clashes with gangs and police officers under the dictatorship of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, Cuevas concealed his fear of jumping into the river so that his wife, daughter-in-law and his other grandson would not lose the courage they had rehearsed during the 40-day journey to Ciudad Acua, in Mexicos Coahuila state. The trip had taken them across Central America and Mexico, along a road rife with robberies, kidnappings, extortion, fatigue, hunger and death that 49,738 Nicaraguans followed in the first quarter of 2022 alone, according to the United States Customs and Border Protection. That is the largest number of migrants from this country to try to cross the US border in recent history.

It was on the first week of March, as he sat inside his home in Managua, that Cuevas made the decision to join this unprecedented exodus to escape the political violence and precarious economic situation that Nicaragua has been experiencing since 2018, following social protests that were brutally repressed. by the police and paramilitary groups. The countrys sociopolitical crisis has deepened since June 2021, when the Ortega-Murillo presidential couple intensified the hunt for opponents that facilitated Ortegas re-election and perpetuation in power.

Before the government closed the CPDH (Permanent Human Rights Commission), says Cuevas, alluding to the last such organization left in Nicaragua, I received threats and intimidating messages. Someone from the government told me that I had better leave... I have never been a fan of desk jobs, I always liked to be out doing field work, but there came a point when I could no longer practice freely, and my wife was having nervous breakdowns thinking that they could arrest me at any moment. So we decided to leave, and the route through the Rio Grande seemed the best, after analyzing it with many users I had who had already crossed into the United States, he tells EL PAS.

The Cuevas familys greatest fear was drowning in the river. Between March and April 2022, news of Nicaraguans killed in those waters shocked the country: 10 people registered by the Association of Nicaraguans in Mexico, although there are other agencies that put the number at 14, such as the non-profit Comunidad Nicaragense en Texas. There were cases like that of a four-year-old girl swept away by the current, or the most recent drowning, on May 1, of Calixto Nelson Rojas, a radio host for Radio Daro, a station that was burned and attacked by the Sandinista regime. The death of the radio journalist was recorded by a Fox News reporter: it happened before the eyes of US and Mexican border agents who did not help him because they were prohibited from doing so, even as Rojas cried out for help. The reason for not saving him was that a Border Patrol officer allegedly drowned weeks ago while trying to rescue two migrants.

Cuevas, a man who was well informed thanks to his work as a human rights defender, knew about the dangers of crossing the river. We began to do introspection exercises with the family, to remember one of our camping trips to the sea in Nicaragua, specifically once an undercurrent dragged us out to sea, but we were able to swim and save ourselves, says the lawyer, who is now living in Florida, where he has started an organization to help other Nicaraguan migrants. So I told my family to remember to bury their feet firmly in the bottom so we could cross the river.

The Cuevas were able to cross without a rope and without a life jacket. However, some 3,000 kilometers south of the Rio Grande, in Nicaragua, dozens who have decided to leave the country and do not know how to swim are taking precautions before heading north: they are signing up for Mario Orozcos swimming lessons.

With no major signs of a solution to the sociopolitical crisis, Nicaragua has become a country on the run. In 2021 alone, the United States Border Patrol tallied 87,530 Nicaraguans who tried to enter the southern border without documents. An exponential increase occurred in June, when the Ortega-Murillos imprisoned all their adversaries and ended the possibility of a resolution to the conflict through transparent elections. If one asks people in Nicaragua about the best decision in this scenario, the majority, especially young people, will answer the same thing: to leave. Migrant groups leave at dawn from some gas stations in Managua, while others who feel politically persecuted, such as Pablo Cuevas, do so clandestinely across the Honduran border.

Border Patrol figures from January to March of this year provide a measure of this booming exodus: 70,066 Nicaraguans have surrendered to patrol officers. But there is an underreporting, says the Association of Nicaraguans in Mexico. There has been a change in the migratory dynamics from this country, driven by political violence that has aggravated endemic ills (a precarious economy and lack of jobs). In 2018, at least 120,000 Nicaraguans applied for asylum in Costa Rica. But the pandemic plunged this latter country into an unemployment crisis and Nicaraguans reconfigured their flight path. First, because Costa Rica has collapsed and second, because Joe Bidens immigration promises were interpreted as greater flexibility by the US government.

Suddenly, the migrant caravans in which Hondurans and Salvadorans used to predominate began to be led by Nicaraguans, who are now also prey to the mafias along the route. Among those preparing to flee the country, crossing the Rio Grande became the best option despite the dangers of its waters. That is why the post on Facebook by professional swimmer Mario Orozco offering free lessons went viral in Nicaragua.

Orozco assures that some of his friends drowned in the Rio Grande and that moved him into action. I am a professional swimmer, I know the techniques to swim in open waters. So I took one of my days off to teach and avoid these tragedies, he says, emphasizing that his work is humanitarian and not political. The swimmer is concise and prefers not to delve into details. He does not say why but, for those who live in Nicaragua, it is understood: anything that the Sandinista government views as criticism can cost jail time.

The pool where Orozco teaches is usually packed, as a reflection of the urgency to leave Nicaragua. I know it is a dangerous river, says Roberto Garca, a Nicaraguan who left the country a few weeks ago and is now in Tapachula, Mexico, where he is preparing myself mentally to ford the Rio Grande. There are those who take swimming lessons; I, for example, am watching YouTube videos, asking other friends who have already crossed where it is less deep; the current less strong I am afraid, but the situation is more critical when I am going to cross with my son, confesses Garca, an auto refrigeration technician who used to provide services to the Supreme Court of Justice.

Garca was imprisoned for seven months for participating in the 2018 protests in Nicaragua. Upon release from prison, his workshop was never able to recover due to police harassment and lack of customers. Weary, he decided to migrate. I dont even want to think about the day Im going to cross the river with my wife and son. It unsettles me. My son is 10 years old and I only think of him, especially when I see so many brothers drowning in the news like that announcer from Len. It was a horrible video. One feels powerless. I dont want a similar video of us, he says. He also doesnt want to leave one last message like that of the radio host Calixto Rojas before jumping into the waters of the Rio Grande: Today Im leaving for Piedras Negras at one in the afternoon. Tomorrow at eight I will be trying to cross the river.

Read more here:
The Nicaraguans who are learning to swim to avoid drowning in US river crossing - EL PAS in English

SECRETARY BLINKEN:Good afternoon. President Shahid, Director General Vitorino, thank you for your leadership at this first International Migration Review Forum. These are unprecedented times. There are more migrants on the move around the world today than at any time since World War II, some 95 million. As people leave their homes in search of safety and opportunity, undertaking perilous journeys, its critical that countries and institutions work together to make migration safer and more orderly.

Forging that common approach to managing migration and protecting vulnerable people is the intention of the Global Compact for Migration. The United States supports that vision. We seek migration policies that are grounded in human rights, human dignity, transparency, and state sovereignty. And were committed to partnering with civil society, with governments, the private sector, and international institutions like the United Nations, because this is a challenge that no one of us can solve alone.

The countries here today have taken important steps since the Global Compact was adopted in 2018. For example, several of our neighbors in the region have provided legal status and services to people fleeing repression and made education available to their children. International organizations and nongovernmental groups are providing support after climate-related disasters and training local officials in climate resilience and adaptation to help communities that are now threatened with being displaced because of the climate crisis. We also welcome efforts by civil society to keep governments focused on human rights and humanitarian assistance, because migration is not an abstract notion. Every migrant is a human being deserving of dignity and protection.

The United States will work closely with our partners to build on the progress thats being made. Next month, at the Summit of the Americas, well continuing developing a collaborative response to irregular migration throughout our hemisphere where the issue is particularly acute. Together, were working on the root causes of irregular migration, including a lack of economic opportunity, insecurity, corruption and repressive governance, climate-related emergencies, to address why people are leaving their homes in the first place. For example, Vice President Kamala Harris rallied the private sector to invest more than a billion dollars to create economic opportunities in Central America.

Were working to expand legal pathways for migration, including allocating more than 50,000 additional temporary worker visas this year, expanding family reunification programs, and funding support for vulnerable migrants and refugees around the globe.

Were also helping to improve protections for migrants worldwide, in part through our work with the International Organization for Migration and the International Labor Organization, to combat human trafficking and to promote ethical cross-border job recruitment.

Theres another migration issue that is front of mind today. Almost 13 million people have fled or been displaced in Ukraine since President Putins war began in February. I want to commend the countries that are welcoming Ukrainian refugees and supporting the humanitarian response. We remain united in supporting Ukraine and opposing this senseless war.

The United States will continue to work for safe, orderly, and humane migration around the world. As a nation built and enriched by immigrants, this issue is particularly close to our hearts. Thank you to everyone here for your commitment, and we very much look forward to our work in the months and years ahead. Thank you very much. (Applause.)

Read more from the original source:
Secretary Antony J. Blinken at the International Migration Review Forum - United States Department of State - Department of State

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Supporters of a "flagship" bill to mitigate the migrant crisis at the southern border urged Republicans Friday to bring back border security in the next Congress.

Former acting ICE Director Tom Homan, Texas Public Policy Foundation executive director Robert Henneke and Bristol County, Massachusetts Sheriff Thomas Hodgson joined "Fox & Friends First" to sound the alarm on record-high migrant encounters under the Biden administration.

"We need to secure the border because a secure border saves lives, and you can't have national security without border security," Homan said.

Homan argued current policies are "rewarding those who break our law" while images show border facilities stocked with baby formula and efforts are made to use Veterans Affairs resources to treat migrants.

KAT CAMMACK TORCHES BIDEN ADMIN. ON BABY FORMULA SHORTAGE: EXACTLY WHAT AMERICA LAST LOOKS LIKE

Homan and Henneke signed a letter first obtained by Fox News Digital urging Republican leaders to unite behind "flagship introductory legislation" in the upcoming Congress next year when they believe Republicans will have taken control of the House and Senate.

Henneke stressed the need to "turn off the magnet" encouraging illegal immigration, saying loopholes have been exploited by the Biden administration.

Immigrant men from many countries are taken into custody by U.S. Border Patrol agents at the U.S.-Mexico border on December 07, 2021 in Yuma, Arizona. Governors from 26 states have formed a strike force to address the crisis at the border. (John Moore/Getty Images)

"Our letter points out that all these loopholes need to be closed and that the first priority for lawmakers when there's a new major majority has to be solving the Biden border crisis by passing legislation to close these loopholes."

Sheriff Hodgson said border insecurity also affects his community thousands of miles away with an "overwhelming" influx of illegal immigrants and an increase in fentanyl overdoses.

"Moms and dads are walking into their kids' bedrooms to wake up, to go to work or school, and they're not waking up because they're dying of fentanyl," he said.

"Massachusetts had the highest influx of illegal aliens between 2010 and 2016. And we're 2,500 miles from the border. And now they have these distribution centers where people are told to go and report in. They get a court date nine years down the road and basically to go out into the community and commit more problems for us that we can't handle."

The letter to lawmakers calls on leaders to "exclude amnesty of any type," to create an immediate expulsion authority, clarify that migrants are ineligible for asylum if they came through a safe third country, restrict prosecutorial discretional and reform the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act (TVPRA) which has been blamed by many officials for encouraging the surge in unaccompanied children in recent years.

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The list of legislative proposals includes the completion of the border wall, the raising of the "credible fear" standard for asylum, increased resources for Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) specifically for deportation officers and detention beds. They also include a full implementation of the Trump-era "Remain-in-Mexico" policy, to clarify that gang violence and domestic violence are not grounds for asylum, and for states to be allowed to have the authority to participate in immigration enforcement.

Fox News' Adam Shaw contributed to this report

Go here to read the rest:
Biden administration's migrant 'magnet' needs to be turned off, immigration hawks warn - Fox News