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BRUZGI, Belarus Thousands of freezing, desperate migrants retreated last week from a sprawling encampment along Belaruss border with Poland but Polish security forces are still mobilized for battle along the frontier, backed by a water cannon, its turret aimed at a threat that has mostly vanished, at least from view.

Polands readiness to repel attack highlights the political calculations of a government in Warsaw that, with its support threatened by rising inflation, a lethal new surge in Covid infections and a host of other problems, is reluctant to let go of a border crisis that has boosted the nationalist governing party, Law and Justice.

This crisis suits Law and Justice and allows it to consolidate citizens around the government, as is usually the case in times of danger, said Antoni Dudek, a political science professor at Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw. Letting the crisis calm, he added, would reverse this because voters would begin to remember all the bad things Law and Justice would like them to forget.

Scenes of migrants trying to storm the border and being repelled by blasts of icy water from Poland, as happened early last week here at Bruzgi, reinforced the Polish governing partys message that only it can defend the country against what it portrays as invading foreign hordes, and they also help it to defuse a crisis with the European Union. Poland joined the bloc in 2004 but has been at loggerheads with it for months over issues like the treatment of the L.G.B.T.Q. community, womens rights and the rule of law.

Last week, Belarus shut down the huge and increasingly squalid migrant settlement flush against the Polish border, removing a key flash point and shifting the main focus of the crisis to the repatriation of asylum seekers. The European Commission estimated on Tuesday that there were up to 15,000 migrants still in Belarus, with about 2,000 near the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

Instead of declaring victory, Warsaw is insisting that the struggle rages on, with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki declaring on Sunday that at this very moment, a hybrid war is taking place on the Polish-Belarusian border.

ReadMore onthe Belarus-Poland Border Crisis

After months of denouncing the European Union as a bully whose insistence on L.G.B.T.Q. rights and judicial independence posed a threat to Polish sovereignty and Christian values, Poland now presents itself as the blocs indispensable guardian, promoting a new government slogan with its own hashtag: #WeDefendEurope.

This message, embraced by fellow members of the European Union, has largely eclipsed Polands previous image as an inveterate troublemaker whose hostility to sexual minorities and refusal to abide by the rulings of Europes top court raised questions about the countrys future E.U. membership.

At home, the Law and Justice party has used the rhetoric of war to bolster its waning popularity, with headlines like Attack on Poland and Another mass assault on the Polish border appearing in the state media. And the national bank plans to issue commemorative coins and notes to honor the defense of the Polish eastern border.

Those efforts appear to have gained traction among many Poles.

The situation of migrants makes me sad, but it is not Polands fault, said Elzbieta Kabac, 57, who owns a guesthouse in Narewka, near the border. We should praise the soldiers and the police for protecting our borders, because we are not ready to take those migrants in. She added: The European Union doesnt need any more migrants.

In one recent opinion poll, 54 percent of Poles surveyed said that the governments response to the crisis was very good or fairly good, with 34 percent saying it was very bad or fairly bad.

Opinion polls also indicate that the border crisis has slowed what had been a steady decline in the governing partys popularity, but that it could still lose power in an election. An opinion poll published Monday in Gazeta Wyborcza, a liberal newspaper, showed Law and Justice as Polands most popular party, with around 30 percent of those surveyed supporting it, but gave opposition parties a good chance of winning a majority in Parliament if they formed a united front. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2023.

Until the border crisis hit with full force this fall, Law and Justice was stumbling badly, shaken by internal quarrels and the withholding of tens of billions of euros from the European Union in aid that the party was relying on to deliver its Polish deal, a package of handouts to the poor and tax hikes for the rich.

With economic and other problems blunting the power of its promise to defend family values, the governing party seized on the border crisis to consolidate support, denouncing as traitors critics of its hard-line policy of pushing back all migrants, even legitimate asylum seekers, pregnant women and the gravely ill.

Many Poles have rallied behind the government. Soldiers of Christ, a group that supports the governments tough line on migrants, organized a mass prayer in the town of Koden on Sunday, saying they intended to defend the nearby border. And in Bialystok, the capital of the region near the Belarus border, a far-right youth organization, Mlodziez Wszechpolska, marched in support of the policy.

There have also been ugly scenes near the border in recent weeks with right-wing vigilantes attacking Polish aid workers trying to help migrants who have made it across.

Poles opposed to the hard-line policy on migrants have also taken to the streets, however, and some have been helping the few who make it into Poland. In the border town of Hajnowka on Saturday, protesters called for the opening of a humanitarian corridor for migrants, and accused border guards of having blood on their hands.

There have been numerous reports of Polish armed services pushing asylum seekers back into Belarus, most recently by Human Rights Watch. The Polish government passed a special law last month to authorize pushbacks, which are against international law.

On Thursday, The Times saw a group of asylum seekers being loaded on a military truck and being driven to the border guards office.

When asked about the group, Katarzyna Zdanowicz, the spokeswoman for the Polish border guards, responded: Eleven people did not seek asylum in Poland. They wanted to go to France or Ireland. They received an order to leave Poland. They were escorted to the border line.

Polish aid groups working in the forests that straddle the frontier have reported a sharp drop in the number of migrants crossing the border in recent days. But Polish authorities say that Belarus has merely changed its tactics and is now sending small groups to try and breach the border at night. With the Polish side of the border off limits to all news media, however, this claim is impossible to verify.

Even as European figures show the crisis peaked months ago, the Polish government has insisted it is only getting worse. The European bloc border agency, Frontex, reported this week that the number of migrants entering the bloc through Belarus rose to an all-time high of 3,200 in July but has fallen steadily since, dropping to around only 600 in October.

While the Polish governments tough stance has clearly energized its base, it is unclear whether the tactic will conjure up new support.

The jury is still out on what lies ahead for Law and Justice, said Piotr Buras, the head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. The migration crisis helped to consolidate the core electorate, but not necessarily boost its popularity outside it. And there are other problems that Poles care about, mainly inflation and the worsening Covid-19 situation.

The European Commission has held up the disbursement to Poland of $42 billion from a coronavirus recovery fund over rule-of-law violations. But if the commission freed up the funds, Mr. Buras said, it would re-establish trust of those that were drifting away from the government in recent months.

He added: In the end, it is a trap. The party is getting more and more radicalized in their policies. They are becoming hostage to their most radical voters.

Andrew Higgins reported from Bruzgi, Belarus, and Monika Pronczuk from Hajnowka, Poland. Anatol Magdziarz contributed reporting from Warsaw and James Hill from Bruzgi.

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Migrant Crisis at Polands Border Eases Pressure on Its Government - The New York Times

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riti Patel said there was no quick fix to the migrant crisis following the deaths of 27 people in the Channel on Wednesday.

France reacted furiously to a public letter released by Boris Johnson which set out five steps he thinks both sides should take to tackle the situation, including introducing joint Anglo-French patrols on French beaches and plans to tackle criminal gangs organising the crossings.

Despite millions of pounds spent and dozens of arrests, thousands of people continue to attempt to get to the UK with many paying huge sums to do so.

Here we look at why so many people are willing to risk their lives to get to Britain and where they are coming from...

How many people are crossing the Channel to get to Britain?

Small boat crossings began to surge late 2018. More than 24,000 people have made the crossing from France to the UK by boat so far this year - a sharp rise on the 8,404 in 2020.

In 2019 the number of irregular migrants, who do not come through traditional legal routes, was around 16,000 , while it was about 17,000 in 2020.

The overall number of overall asylum applications in the UK reached 35,737 in 201. It fell slightly to 29,456 last year as a result of far fewer arrivals by air and an increase in arrivals by small boat across the Channel, according to the Government. Asylum applications peaked in 2002 at 84,132.

There is no official record of how many people have died attempting the perilous Channel crossing. Research by the Institute of Race Relations, released in November last year, found 292 people had died trying to cross by vehicle, tunnel or water since 1999.

This year 34 people are believed to have died while crossing the Channel in small boats, including the 27 who drowned after their small dingy sunk on Wednesday.

Which countries are these people coming from?

An estimated half a million Syrians died when President Bashar al Assad ordered a violent crackdown on Arab Spring protesters in 2011, sparking the countrys civil war.

Many Syrians were forced to flee, resulting in the 2015 European migrant crisis, which saw up to a million people being given refuge in Germany and a large camp, that become known as the Jungle, created in Calais.

Military offensives in north-west and north-east Syria internally displaced 684,000 and 174,600 people respectively. Tens of thousands of others forced to flee their homes still live in makeshift camps that do not provide an adequate standard of living.

Many who stayed at the time are now leaving as the war continues, albeit at a lower level, and the country faces huge food shortages.

Amongst adults, Iran was the top nationality claiming asylum in the UK in the year ending September 2021.

Iranian nationals have increasingly been trying to reach the UK by crossing the Channel. The country has long been criticised by human rights groups for its treatment of people who disagree with the regime.

It is a hardline Islamic nation state where people are expected to live under its interpretation of Sharia law.

Iranian Kurds and Christians in particular say they face persecution in Iran.

The Taliban seized back control of Afghanistan earlier this year after the withdrawal of UK and US troops.

The increasingly unstable situation, and fears about a return to the hardline regime, caused many to flee even before soldiers left.

Women and non Muslims face particular suppression under the Taliban regime, Life is also highly dangerous for Afghans who worked with US and UK troops during the 20 years of occupation.

Yemen is one of the Arab world's poorest countries and has been devastated by civil war between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi rebel forces.

Air strikes are reportedly regularly launched against targets in built up areas.

The UN said the war has resulted in huge levels of suffering and, by December 2020, had caused an estimated 233,000 deaths, including 131,000 from indirect causes such as starvation, lack of health services and infrastructure.

Tens of thousands of people have also been killed or wounded as a direct result of the fighting, including more than 10,000 children.

Iraq has seen years of internal unrest and war and economic opportunities are limited. The country has a significant Kurd population and, unlike Iran, does not has its own autonomous Kurdish region.

Many Kurds fled during the period in which Islamic State advanced across the north of the country from 2014. It was US and UK-backed Kurdish fighters who eventually defeated the militant group.

The countrys Government still sees excessive use of force against protesters, arbitrary arrests, torture, enforced disappearances and attacks on freedom of expression, according to human rights groups.

Since Islamic States defeat Turkey has conducted regular military action in the north of the Kurdistan Region, according to the Foreign Office.

Eritrea is a state in northeast Africa on the Red Sea coast, which shares borders with Ethiopia, Sudan and Djibouti. It is one of the poorest countries in Africa.

According to Amnesty International thousands flee abroad because authorities violate the rights to freedom of expression, religion and freedom of movement.

The highly militarised country has indefinite military conscription, with the average soldier serving six years in the force, and imprisons government critics and pro-democracy leaders.

The large North African country that borders the Red Sea saw huge street protests after the autocratic leader Omar al Bashir was overthrown in 2019.

The Darfur region has been plagued by civil war and conflict for two decades. Some 2m people are estimated to have died in the conflicts and millions more have been driven from their homes.

In 2011 the country split in two, with South Sudan becoming a new state. The government heavily controls the media and has failed to protect the population from human rights abuses arising from armed attacks by militias, according to charities.

Arbitrary arrests of pro democracy activists and human rights offences have significantly increased in Vietnam, according to Amnesty International.

The one party Communist state is undergoing an economic boom thanks to its manufacturing industry, but opportunities are still scarce for many.

Two years ago 39 Vietnamese nationals died while making the crossing in a lorry.

Why do migrants leave France or other safe countries to risk coming to the UK?

The Government has long said refugees should seek refuge in the first safe country they reach.

While there is no legal requirement for someone to claim asylum in any particular country, there is a requirement for the first safe country in which they arrive to hear their claim.

If this does not happen, they people are free to make claims elsewhere. Charity workers in France have claimed many people seeking asylum there do not have good experiences at the hands of the authorities.

Those with family already settled in the UK often want to come here and migrants are also more likely to have some grasp of English than other European languages.

In 2020 Germany received the highest number of asylum applications (122,015), followed by France (93,475).

In the same period, the UK received the firth largest number of number applicants with 36,041, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

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Migrant crisis: Why do so many people head to the UK and where are they coming from? - Evening Standard

Acting German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss the situation in eastern Ukraine.

German government spokesperson Steffen Seibert said this at a press conference on Thursday, November 25, Ukrinform reports.

"The Chancellor and the President of Ukraine discussed the security situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border and in eastern Ukraine. Chancellor Merkel underlined her support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity and stressed that undermining them would not be left without consequences," Seibert said.

Merkel and Zelensky agreed to advance efforts in the Normandy format to implement the Minsk agreements to reach a peaceful solution to the conflict.

The politicians also exchanged their views on the situation on the border between Belarus and the European Union and between Belarus and Ukraine, Seibert added.

Earlier on November 25, Merkel said at a press conference with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki that Berlin saw it as its task to do everything possible to prevent a new wave of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, predicted on November 21 that Russia could resort to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in January or February next year.

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Merkel, Zelensky discuss situation in eastern Ukraine, migrant crisis - Ukrinform. Ukraine and world news

More than 150 people have died crossing the English Channel in the last five years according to recorded data but charities warn the true numbers could be far higher.

The number of desperate people who died trying to make it to the UK in 2021 makes up more than 25 per cent of all migrant deaths since records began.

People crossing the English Channel in boats or in the back of lorries surged this year, with over 23,000 making the treacherous crossing so far, according to the International Organisation for Migrations (IOM) Missing Migrants Project.

The organisation warned that figures must be considered to be a low count of the true number of missing migrants, due to the challenges of collecting data as well as the large number of invisibleshipwrecks that happen without witness or record.

It comes as efforts continue to identify the 27 people whose lives were lost in the Channel on Wednesday in one of the darkest days of the migrant crisis. A source at the French prosecutors office told i they included three children, seven women and 17 men. One of the women is understood to have been pregnant.

IOM confirmed the tragedy was the largest loss of life in the Channel since it began collecting data in 2014.

What makes people cross the Channel are there are no other routes to get here to claim asylum. You must be on UK soil to claim asylum here, a Refugee Action spokesman told i.

When there is no other option, people put their lives in the hands of criminal gangs and step into flimsy boats and hope for the best.

Of those who cross the Channel, 98 per cent claim asylum, according to Refugee Council.

Charities have condemned the Government for not ensuring there are safer routes for people seeking asylum that dont see people forced to put their lives and the lives of their families in danger.

Minnie Rahman, interim chief executive of the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants (JCWI), told i: What happened yesterday was a devastating but avoidable tragedy. At least 27 people with hopes, dreams, families and futures died in a cold stretch of sea because this government has been playing politics with peoples lives.

She argued that over the course of the pandemic many safe routes to people seeking asylum have been closed down, leaving no way for people to get to the UK safely.

The Government has repeatedly prioritised, cruel, unworkable and dangerous border measures like pushbacks in the Channel, which will only lead to more deaths, she said.

Experts have also pointed out that while applications for asylum have increased, the number of people resettled has dramatically fallen from the year before.

The number of people granted protection through resettlement schemes has fallen by 46 per cent in the year ending September 2021 and now stands at just over 1,000, said Marley Morris, Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) associate director.

The figures also show an overall 18 per cent year-on-year increase in asylum applications, but with total numbers still far lower than the peak in the early 2000s. Moreover, the number of asylum applications with an initial decision pending has continued to rise, in part as a result of extensive delays in asylum processing.

He added the number of asylum applications still pending an initial decision stands at around 68,000, with around two thirds taking more than six months to process.

The Refugee Council is calling on the Government to:

Meanwhile in Calais, a makeshift graveyard has been set up to remember each of the refugees who have died trying to reach Europe. One of the wooden crosses has been placed for newborn Samir Khalida, who was killed when her mother, who left Eritrea for a better life in Europe, fell from a truck, triggering her premature birth.

The graveyard is expected to grow as more and more people attempt to come to the UK over the coming months.

Home Secretary Priti Patel said Wednesdays tragedy serves as the starkest possible reminder of the dangers of these Channel crossings organised by ruthless criminal gangs.

She said the Governments new plan for immigration will overhaul our broken asylum system and address many of the long-standing pull factors encouraging migrants to make the perilous journey from France.

The Home Office said there are other safer and legal routes for people to use to come to the UK such as work and study routes, as well as family resettlement.

It added the new Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme will give 20,000 Afghans fleeing persecution a new life in the UK through a safe and legal route.

i revealed on Thursday that the Afghan Resettlement Scheme still has not opened three months after the Government announced it.

Excerpt from:
Migrant crisis: More than 150 people died crossing Channel in last 5 years and the total could be far higher - iNews

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oris Johnson has said the UK will stand shoulder to shoulder with Poland against those who would try to provoke a migrant crisis on its borders.

Meeting Mr Johnson in Downing Street on Friday, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki warned the situation affecting his country is getting crazy.

Poland has been facing a crisis on its border with Belarus for months, with thousands of migrants, mainly from the Middle East attempting to cross into the European Union.

Brussels has accused Belaruss authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko a close ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin of deliberately encouraging the migrants to breach its borders in retaliation for sanctions the EU has imposed in response to his repressive rule.

The Prime Minister said during his meeting with Mr Morawiecki: I think this is an important occasion and we are very, very grateful to you for visiting us, for coming to Number 10, to London, because this is a moment where we can reaffirm our commitment to the relationship but also to standing shoulder to shoulder with Poland against those who would try to provoke a migrant crisis, for instance, on Polish borders.

Mr Morawiecki said that things are now getting very much crazy around us.

He said the UK and Poland have almost the same priorities and are on the same hymn sheet.

He also warned of some not so good guys around the democratic world and transatlantic community.

We have to stay together in front of all those challenges, he said.

Mr Morawiecki added that he felt great sorrow over the news that 27 people died attempting to cross the English Channel.

Mr Johnson replied: That, again, underlines that this is a problem that we have to fix together.

The PM also described Poland as the UKs closest European Nato ally on matters of security and defence.

He said: This is a chance for us to reaffirm our commitment to you as I think probably our closest European Nato ally in our thinking and our commitment to our long-term security and defence relationship not to say nothing of our economic relationship.

Downing Street said the men went on to discuss the situation in Ukraine, as well as the impact of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

They noted concerning threats against Ukraine, and emphasised our unwavering support for Ukraines sovereignty and territorial integrity, it said.

Both leaders welcomed the close economic, social and cultural ties between the British and Polish people, and looked forward to boosting our trading relationship.

The Prime Minister set out the United Kingdoms ongoing concerns about the detrimental impact of the Northern Ireland Protocol, and the fact that it was creating an impediment to the east-west trade on which Northern Irelands economy depends.

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PM says UK stands shoulder to shoulder with Poland on migrant crisis - Evening Standard