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A member of Border Force staff assists a female evacuee as refugees arrive in England from Afghanistan on August 26, 2021. It is unclear whether the current crisis will necessarily result in a dramatic increase in refugee flows from Afghanistan toward Europe.

Photo: Dominic Lipinski WPA Pool/Getty Images

The swift takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban and an upcoming final August 31st deadline for all NATO troops to leave the has triggered panic among European politicians about the possibility of a new refugee emergency especially in countries that are facing elections in the coming months, such as Germany and France.

Candidates for high offices have been quick to reassure voters that 2021 wont be a repeat of 2015, when more than a million Syrian and Afghan refugees streamed into Europe and caused one of the most serious challenges that the EU has faced in recent times.

The mistakes made in the Syrian civil war must not be made again, promised Armin Laschet, the leader of Chancellor Angela Merkels Christian Democratic Union. He was echoed by Merkel herself and the chancellor candidate for the Social Democratic Party, Olaf Scholz.

Both have stressed that it is Afghanistans neighboring countries that now need support to deal with the challenge.

French President Emmanuel Macron was even blunter, stating in a televised address that France should have a robust plan to anticipate and protect itself from a wave of migrants (.), adding that dealing with those fleeing the Taliban would need a fair and organized international effort.

Greece has gone further by installing a 25 mile long fence along its borders. Most of the criticism directed at the U.S. president by European partners seems to be caused by the fear that it is they who will have to deal with the destabilizing consequences of a humanitarian crisis provoked by the sudden collapse of the pro-western government in Kabul.

Events in Afghanistan have exposed how six years after the events of 2015 there is still a lack of a clear EU framework for dealing with large inflows of migrants: How to process and, most importantly, distribute refugees still very much depends on the willingness of individual EU member countries to accept them on their territory.

The so-called Dublin EU framework that put most of the onus on first entry countries has not been replaced by anything new and durable. The EU beefed up its border police force Frontex and financially supported countries, such as Turkey and Libya, in return for their efforts to keep refugees away from Europe. But this approach was always supposed to buy time not become the only pillar of a shaky immigration framework.

The absence of any new ways of dealing with non-EU immigrants has forced the EU and its leaders to resort to the same imperfect tools employed in the wake of the last crisis. Just like in 2015, Merkel spoke to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan although both Ankara and Berlin deny that the possibility of a new deal was discussed or even mentioned. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is pushing to get the G20 involved by including China, India and Russia into any efforts to deal with the aftermath of the Taliban takeover.

The EU is discussing funding schemes for Afghanistans neighboring countries. While critics have pointed out that the EU is unnecessarily putting itself in the position of being blackmailed by potential recipients of financial aid, the aim of the exercise is clear: Once evacuation efforts are concluded, dont expect EU countries to welcome many more refugees.

Numbers of those currently entitled to resettle in western countries vary no overall official figures are available, but based on promises made by individual governments it is safe to assume around 100,000. However, these numbers pale when compared to those of the United Nations refugees organization. According to the UNHCR, there are currently 3.5 million internally displaced people in Afghanistan.

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Worldwide, there are currently around 2.5 million registered Afghan refugees. Notably, most of them 2.2 million are in neighboring Pakistan, not in Europe. It is in fact unclear whether the current crisis will necessarily result in a dramatic increase in refugee flows from Afghanistan toward Europe. The countries that will likely continue to bear the brunt of the humanitarian cost of the war are Pakistan and Iran. The potential corridors for refugee flows from Afghanistan toward Europe are currently largely choked off.

Also, the Taliban themselves seem to be determined to stop migrant outflows, at least for the time being. They seem to have concluded they can ill afford to bleed expertise when what they need are Afghans with some experience of running a bureaucracy. Much of course depends on how much and quickly the Taliban will alienate Afghan civilians and whether a bloody civil war can be avoided.

Once the current visible turmoil subsides and western witnesses have left the scene EU governments will likely try to engage with the Taliban directly to address a possible migration emergency. Merkel obliquely hinted at this before the Bundestag on August 25th when she declared that unfortunately one had to accept that the Taliban are now in charge. But much of this tentatively emerging approach of careful engagement is largely based on hope rather than sound policy.

The situation in Afghanistan has once again revealed the brittleness of Europes patchwork of migration policies. The country could represent a new wake up call or recede in politicians minds if the worst can be avoided. Unfortunately, geopolitical instability is here to stay, and will be further fueled by the impact of climate change on vulnerable societies.

As a result, migration flows will likely continue to increase, further exposing the lack of a coherent European strategy to deal with the crisis at hand.

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Is Europe Facing a New Migrant Crisis? BRINK Conversations and Insights on Global Business - BRINK

Fortress Europe is pulling up the drawbridge. The takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban is likely to being about a new wave of refugees heading west, and so walls and fences are being hastily built around the borders of the Schengen Area. As scars inflicted by the last migrant crisis re-open, the possibility of a new influx of refugees is causing deep apprehension throughout the EU.

At Usnarz Gorny, on Polands border with Belarus, the migrant crisis is already beginning. Twenty four Afghan migrants currently sit stranded in no mans land between Polish and Belarusian border guards. Left without food or clean drinking water for weeks on end, their situation has become a no-win moral dilemma for the Polish government.

The migrants are among the many thousands duped by the Belarusian authorities. As part of a hybrid warfare waged by the dictator Alexander Lukashenko against the EU, Belarus has been enticing refugees from Afghanistan and other countries and sending them across the border into Europe. Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have now seen huge increases in migrants from war-torn countries in recent months.

For Poland, there can be no good outcome from the drama unfolding in Usnarz Gorny. The government faces a choice between accepting the migrants and in so doing encouraging the hostile actions of the Belarusian regime or leaving them stranded in dire circumstances on the countrys doorstep.

In the wake of the Talibans rapid takeover of Afghanistan, the case has taken on a wider dimension. It is also being seen as a litmus test of the attitude of the country and the wider central European region towards a potential new wave of mass migration from the East.

When over a million migrants crossed the Mediterranean to reach Europe in 2015, central European countries refused to help the EU deal with the crisis. Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary bluntly refused to take in refugees. In 2020, they were found to have broken EU law in failing to fulfil their obligations as part of the blocs controversial migrant quota system.

There is little to suggest attitudes in the region have changed since then. Commenting on the situation in Afghanistan in a recent radio interview, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbn said migration is not a human right and that countries to the east of the EU should bear the responsibility of looking after refugees.

Cooperation with the Turkish government is a key issue. It is in our interests to keep prospective migrants who want to leave Afghanistan there, in the region. Lets help them there, not bring trouble here, he said.

Unfortunately for Orbn, Turkey is unlikely to accept attempts by Europe to offload responsibility for refugees. President Erdogan has warned that Turkey will not be Europes refugee warehouse as Greece put the finishing touches to a 40-kilometre fence intended to keep asylum seekers out.

Polands reluctance to take in the migrants camped at its borders may meanwhile be influenced by international tensions with Belarus. But in citing the destabilising influence of migration as the reason for its opposition to Belaruss actions, the government has set a precedent for future waves of mass movement from Afghanistan. It would be surprising if, having left two dozen Afghans without food and shelter at its border for weeks on end, it subsequently adopted a no-questions-asked stance towards migration on a far larger scale.

In the neighbouring Czech Republic, the response to the Taliban takeover has indicated a similar instinctual aversion to the idea of mass migration. Far from volunteering to accept refugees, the Czech government refused to join other EU countries in suspending deportation procedures for illegal Afghan migrants already in the country.

With elections approaching in October, all three candidates for Czech prime minister have declared themselves against any new migrant quota system imposed by the EU. Legal action over the countrys refusal to take in refugees in 2015 failed to change public opinion on the matter: a recent poll showed 63 per cent of the population does not believe the Czech Republic should volunteer to take in those fleeing Taliban rule.

Central Europes apprehension over refugees is reminiscent of attitudes seen in 2015 only this time around, similar concerns are evident in western Europe too. French President Emmanuel Macron has spoken of the need for caution in welcoming significant irregular migratory flows, while Brussels is notably less keen to criticise the erection of border fences in Poland and Lithuania than when Hungary constructed a southern barrier to keep migrants out in 2015. Indeed, Orbns arguments that migrants should be kept in the East now sound decidedly mainstream.

It is becoming clear that rather than learning lessons from its past mistakes, the scars of the 2015 crisis will only make it more difficult for the EU to deal with refugees fleeing Afghanistan. And as the walls go up around the bloc, central Europes long-held scepticism about accepting refugees seems to be catching on.

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Fortress Europe is dreading the Afghan migrant crisis - The Spectator Australia

ISTANBUL--Turkey cannot take the burden of a new migrant wave from Afghanistan, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Sunday after talks with his German counterpart, as concerns about a new migrant wave remain after the Talibans taking of power.

The events in Afghanistan have fuelled worries in the European Union of a repeat of the 2015 refugee crisis, when nearly a million people fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East and beyond crossed to Greece from Turkey before travelling north to wealthier states.

To stem the flow of refugees, the EU reached an agreement with Turkey in 2016 for it to host Syrians fleeing the war in their country in return for billions of euros for refugee projects.

Cavusoglu said on Sunday that Europe, as well as regional countries, would also be affected if migration from Afghanistan turns into a crisis and that lessons should be learned from the Syrian refugee crisis.

As Turkey, we have sufficiently carried out our moral and humanitarian responsibilities regarding migration, Cavusoglu said, speaking in a joint news conference with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas.

It is out of the question for us to take an additional refugee burden, Cavusoglu said.

Turkey currently hosts 3.7 million Syrian refugees, the worlds largest refugee population, in addition to around 300,000 Afghans. It has been reinforcing measures along its eastern border to prevent crossings in anticipation of a new migrant wave from Afghanistan.

Maas said Germany was grateful to Turkey for its offer to continue to help run Kabul airport after NATOs withdrawal and said Germany was ready to support that financially and technically.

It is in our own interests to ensure that the collapse in Afghanistan does not destabilise the entire region, he said in a statement.

Maas is on a trip to Turkey, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Qatar to show Germanys support for the countries most likely to suffer the fallout of the crisis in Afghanistan.

Turkeys neighbour Greece has completed a 40 kilometre fence and surveillance system to keep out migrants who still manage to enter Turkey and try to reach the European Union.

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Turkey rejects 'additional refugee burden' from Afghanistan | | AW - The Arab Weekly

Fearing a repeat of the 2015 refugee crisis, Greece has completed building a 40-km long wall and installed a hi-tech surveillance system on its border with Turkey to avoid the influx of Afghan migrants following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.

The development comes amid apprehensions about heavy migration of Afghan citizens into Greece via Turkey, and then further into Europe.

What is happening?

Greece built the wall stating that the country cannot let Afghan nationals penetrate their borders and enter the country. Greek Citizens Protections Minister Michalis Chrisochoidis said Our borders will remain safe and inviolable.

About the Afghanistan crisis, Greek Minister for Migration and Asylum Notis Mitarachi, in a statement, said the EU nations should collectively act towards supporting the countries in the region which will be affected by the migration wave.

Mitarachi added that there was a need to send the right messages in order to avoid a new migration crisis which Europe is unable to shoulder. Our country will not be a gateway to Europe for illegal Afghan migrants, he said as reported by The Guardian.

The completion of the wall on the Greece-Turkey border comes after a discussion on the Afghanistan crisis between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan.

Erdoan, hoping for a smooth transition in Afghanistan, in a statement he issued on Telegram on August 20, said, I pointed out that if a transitional period cannot be established in Afghanistan, the pressure on migration, which has already reached high levels, will increase even more and this situation will pose a serious challenge for everyone.

Erdoan added that he believed that the EU should help the Afghan citizens in Afghanistan and in neighbouring countries like Iran. I emphasized that cooperation on migration should be promoted based on mutual understanding and interests.

Afghan nationals enter Turkey from Iran and then via land or sea enter Greece to eventually get into Europe.

Mitsotakis said that it was important, especially in terms of refugee flows, for the EU to support the countries that were close to Afghanistan and ensure that there are no additional refugee flows to Europe. I have spoken with President Erdogan and I believe we have a common interest in ensuring that migration flows are reduced as close as possible to Afghanistan.

While Greek ministers like Mitarachi have suggested that the EU should help Turkey in dealing with Afghan migrants, they have also stated that another migration crisis like the one in 2015 cannot be afforded. The EU is not ready and does not have the capacity to handle another major migration crisis, he had told Reuters.

What was the 2015 migrant crisis faced by Greece?

The European Union faced a huge inflow of migrants from neighbouring countries, especially the middle-east, during the 2015 Syrian war.

More than 1.3 million people fled to Europe, seeking asylum in the EU, Norway and Switzerland, Pew Research stated.

Most of these people arrived in Greece and Italy, according to UNHCR. UNHCRs data on December 29, 2015 showed 1,000,573 people had reached Europe across the Mediterranean, mainly to Greece and Italy. Of these, 3,735 were missing, believed drowned, Over 75 per cent of those arriving in Europe had fled conflict and persecution in Syria, Afghanistan or Iraq.

The report stated, In addition to the sea crossings, 34,000 crossed from Turkey into Bulgaria and Greece by land.

Afghans accounted for 20 per cent of these migrants.

The data shows that while 800,000 refugees had entered Greece from Turkey via sea, which was 80 per cent of migrants arriving in Europe by the sea in 2015, only 150,000 a drop from 2014 had entered Italy.

In 2016, Greece and Turkey reached an arrangement to halt the inflow of migrants into Greece via Turkey in return for financial support for Turkey. Thereafter, according to The Guardian, any migrants who hadnt applied for asylum or whose applications were rejected were sent back to Turkey.

Last year, Turkey had opened its borders for migrants to move towards Greece, stating that it had reached its capacity.

What next?

The EU and Greece have been in talks to help each other in the possibility of massive migration from Afghanistan.

Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis met the First Vice President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. A statement from the Prime Ministers office said: Referring to the new challenges related to the situation in Afghanistan, the Prime Minister stressed that what was attempted in the past, namely the mass influx of migrants and refugees, will be prevented.

Standing with Greece, Metsola said that during the Afghan migrant crisis, if there is any in the future, Europe will continue to stand by Greece and with the front-line Member States bearing a European responsibility.

According to the New York Times, by July-end, 330,000 Afghans had been displaced in 2021. The number of Afghans illegally crossing the borders had gone up by up to 40 per cent since May this year. The report added, at least 30,000 Afghans were migrating out of the country every week.

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Explained: Why Greece has built a 40-km long wall on its border with Turkey - The Indian Express

The time to articulate a European response to the multidimensional crisis that opens in Afghanistan after the fall of Kabul is running out. With the deadline that the United States gave for the withdrawal of troops around the corner, on August 31, and with the resurgent Taliban regime pressing for the calendar to be respected, this Tuesday the Interior Ministers will meet in Brussels and Justice of the European Union to try to find a common position in the face of the foreseeable humanitarian debacle, and the consequent migratory wave that European capitals fear so much, due to its similarities with the 2015 crisis: then Syria was bleeding and they crossed the European borders more of a million people seeking asylum.

The extraordinary meeting of the Council of the EU, convened by the Slovenian presidency, which this semester leads the Union, seeks to unite the usual cacophony of 27 voices in the community bloc when it comes to border and migrant issues, and also articulate mechanisms that will prevent a repeat of the 2015 scenario, states the announcement of the call.

The member states come to the appointment with fresh memories. The images of tens of thousands of families traversing fences and barbed wire into the heart of Germany, boarding crowded trains, sleeping anywhere to save their lives are still very much present. Building on the lessons learned, the EU and its Member States are determined to act together to prevent a recurrence of the large-scale uncontrolled illegal migratory movements they faced in the past, by preparing a coordinated and orderly response, said the draft joint declaration of the EU Council meeting, to which MRT has had access.

The document, which must still be approved by the ministers during the face-to-face meeting, reflects how the EU intends to prevent the problem from reaching its borders and overflowing them, for which support should be strengthened for the countries in the immediate vicinity of Afghanistan to ensure that those in need receive adequate protection primarily in the region. Although the draft recognizes the need to provide that shelter to those who need it, in line with EU legislation and with our international obligations, it calls for strengthening support for neighboring and transit countries, which host a large number of migrants and refugees , so that they are the ones who provide that protection. On the other hand, it calls for the European Asylum Support Office to intensify its external operations for the development of asylum capacity, and suggests mechanisms such as voluntary resettlement for vulnerable people.

The EU, as reflected in the note, is also concerned about the threat to security posed by the new geopolitical theater, which is why it invites all efforts to ensure that the Taliban regime cease ties and practices with international terrorism , preventing the country from once again becoming a sanctuary of violent fanaticism. The EU even reserves the ability to respond to events on the ground that may affect its security, and invites Europol to provide a risk analysis of the situation. The timely implementation of security checks on people who are evacuated from Afghanistan remains crucial, adds the text, which underlines the European determination to protect external borders and prevent unauthorized entry into EU territory. .

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The draft also gives priority to continuing the evacuation of European and Afghan citizens from the country, and ensures that specific solutions will be sought for specific cases of people in danger. The EU, according to the document, will continue to align with the international community, in particular with the UN and its agencies, to stabilize the region and ensure that humanitarian aid reaches vulnerable populations, in particular women and children, in Afghanistan and neighboring countries , pledging to increase financial support to relevant international organizations .

We have to give international protection to those who are under immediate threat, such as womens rights and fundamental rights activists, authors and journalists, values the Interior Commissioner, Ylva Johansson, through statements sent to EL COUNTRY by mobile message. Johansson is in the United States, where he plans to discuss the Afghan situation with the Secretary of National Security, Alejandro Mayorkas, and the Secretary General of the UN, Antnio Guterres, among others, before returning to Brussels to hold the meeting with the Ministers of Justice and the Interior. We have to prevent significant numbers of people from embarking on dangerous smuggling routes into the EU and instead ensure that we protect women and girls through resettlement, Commissioner Johansson proposes.

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The EU tries to avoid a repeat of the 2015 refugee crisis - Market Research Telecast