Mediaboss Marketing

2016 Democratic National Convention Photo: Lorie Shaull

The fluid nature of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is leading to a lot of speculation. What will the party be facing when it holds its convention in Milwaukee in July? Will any candidate be able to gain enough delegates to claim the nomination outright?

According to Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight.com, the odds of none of the candidates having a majority of delegates is two in five, meaning its more likely than the odds being in favor of one candidate. (Bernie Sanders is very close at one in three.)

Related: Elizabeth Warren was asked whod be her Mike Pence: I already have a dog

The uncertainty is fueled by the screwy nature of the primary system. All the prognosticating is based in the results from Iowa and New Hampshire two small, disproportionately white states. Caucus goers in Iowa seemed to prefer Sanders and Pete Buttigieg (although the results are still a mess) while New Hampshire voters added Amy Klobuchar to the mix. Despite disappointing showings, former Vice President Joe Biden is holding on to hopes of a strong showing in South Carolina next week

Sanders success to date is driving much of the speculation. His electability is an open question, but that can be said about any of the other candidates. Then theres billionaire and former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is rising in the polls thanks to his massive ad spend. Bloomberg has emerged as the moderates savior, who see a Sanders nomination as the oath to certain defeat.

Democrats are wrestling with a split between progressives and (relative) moderates, and with the stakes so high this year, the result has been feeding the partys uncertainty about its future.

With so many tangled threads, its no wonder that media speculation about a brokered convention is ramping up. Its a little like a meteorologist looking out at a storm forming and seeing a potential blizzard coming. Of course, a lot of the time the storm turns out to be just flurries but meteorologists never lost viewers by hyping a snowpocalyse. The same is true for pundits, who like to look at politics as an opportunity for breathless projections. But the fact is, the race is still early and things can and will change.

Candidates will drop out and throw their support to someone else. People will claim certain candidates arent electable, but in a few months, voters will get used to a front runner and rally around him or her. If you need an example, just look to the Republicans in 2016. The panic around Donald Trump within the party was heavily reported, and Republicans claimed he wasnt electable. Eventually, they gave way and this proved wrong, and his opponents fell by the wayside one by one.

Yet, despite endless speculation on his electability and comparisons to him from moderates, Sanders isnt like Trump for one thing, hes sane. His policies would be far more in line with normal politics than anything Trump has done. He would govern on principle and not whim and corrupt self-interest.

Super Tuesday is in a few weeks, at which point Democrats in fourteen states will be choosing a huge chunk of delegates. Thats when well really know where the race is headed but its probably not going to prevent chaos in Milwaukee.

Read this article:
The primary chaos now won't stop Democrats from having a brokered convention - LGBTQ Nation

Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenBiden assures supporters the primary is still 'wide open' in lengthy phone call: report Former HUD secretary criticizes Bloomberg on housing policy Warren: We are watching a descent into authoritarianism MORE (D-Mass.) told a voterthat she already has a dog when the 2020 White House hopeful was askedabout her choice to replace Vice President Pence.

The voter asked Warren at a town hall in Lebanon, N.H., on Sunday if she ever whispers to her dog Bailey, Who is going to be my Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PenceRally crowd chants '46' for Donald Trump Jr. Warren on her choice to replace Mike Pence: 'I already have a dog' Buttigieg: 'I didn't set out to be the gay president' MORE?

I already have a dog, Warren responded.

The crowd cheeredin response to the senator's deadpan joke.

Warrenwent on to describe her ideal type of running mate, and Cabinet members, without naming any potential picks.

I want people who are there because they believe in public service. I want people who are gonna be good partners in this fight. I want people who are willing to pick up the tools that are already there and to use them on behalf of the public, she said. Its so easy to get discouraged and to say [Senate Majority Leader] Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellLawmakers trade insults over Trump budget cuts Overnight Defense: Trump says military may consider disciplining Vindman | Dems pick up another Republican for Iran war measure | Watchdog says over 2,000 people killed rebuilding Afghanistan Republicans scramble to avoid Medicare land mine MORE [R-Ky.] just ruins everything. There's a lot of truth in that, too, but it isn't everything. There is a lot we can still do.

Warren also said her ideal vice president is someone who is going to be in the fight with her.

I want smart people. ... I want people who have ideas. I want people who have worked in the fields, she added. I want people who believe that they can be part of putting government on the side of our citizens instead of on the sides of giant corporations.

Q: Do you whisper into Bailey's ear, "Who is gonna be my Mike Pence? Who is gonna look at me with adoring eyes?"@ewarren: I already have a dog. #WinWithWarren #Warren2020 pic.twitter.com/XwU23uUqEl

Warrens town hall in Lebanon is one of many campaign events she and her opponents are holding in New Hampshire ahead of Tuesdays first-in-the-nation primary.

Warren trailed former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegBiden assures supporters the primary is still 'wide open' in lengthy phone call: report Limbaugh on Buttigieg: 'America's still not ready to elect a gay guy kissing his husband on the debate stage' CNN announces Democratic town halls in Nevada MORE and Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersBiden assures supporters the primary is still 'wide open' in lengthy phone call: report Limbaugh on Buttigieg: 'America's still not ready to elect a gay guy kissing his husband on the debate stage' CNN announces Democratic town halls in Nevada MORE (I-Vt.) in last weeks chaotic Iowa caucuses, but she came in third, ahead of former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenLimbaugh on Buttigieg: 'America's still not ready to elect a gay guy kissing his husband on the debate stage' CNN announces Democratic town halls in Nevada Where 2020 candidates stand in Super Tuesday polls MORE, who had been regarded as the front-runner in the 2020 race.

Continue reading here:
Warren on her choice to replace Mike Pence: 'I already have a dog' | TheHill - The Hill

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) Vice President Mike Pence will be inthe Lowcountry on Thursday.

He will be speaking to the Corps of Cadets and is expectedto be honored at the Citadels Republican Society Patriot Dinner.

Every year, the Patriot Dinner honors a national, state, orlocal official who embodies the selfless leadership of Nathan Hale.

Hale was an American soldier and spy for the ContinentalArmy during the American Revolutionary War. He volunteered for anintelligence-gathering mission in New York City but was captured by the Britishand executed at the age of 21.

Pence will receive the Nathan Hale Patriot Award during thePatriot Dinner.

Duty, honor and service are central to the values we learnat The Citadel and we believe that the Vice President embodies those values forour entire nation, said Cadet Austin Burgess.

Past recipients include national figures such as PresidentTrump, Senator Tim Scott, Senator Jim DeMint and local heroes like Sheriff AlCannon and Congressman Henry Brown.

Proceeds from the dinner support sending cadets to theannual civic leadership seminars at CPAC, club scholarships, and programs,said Cadet Pierce Huff, club President.

Read more:
VP Mike Pence to speak at The Citadel on Thursday - WCBD News 2

President Donald Trump loves to brag about all the great things hes doing for black people.

His Feb. 5 State of the Union show was chock-full of boasts and grins aimed at African Americans. Our unemployment rate is at an all-time low, thanks to him. Trump is a criminal justice champion, he claimed in the speech. He lavished praise on a 100-year-old Tuskegee Airman and bestowed a scholarship on a young black girl.

Black folks wont fall for that okey-doke.

No matter. Trumps softer, gentler words were aimed at another, crucial constituency: white suburban women.

Women who swing more liberally on social issues than their male counterparts. Trump needs their votes to prevail in the November presidential election.

Women who are not amused by Trumps embrace of white nationalists and anti-immigrant crusades. Women who abhor his bombastic, misogynist ways.

In the 2020 presidential campaign, women prefer all of the leading Democratic candidates over Trump by 23 to 30 percentage points, according to a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll.

The poll was conducted Jan. 20 to 23. If held on Election Day, it would nearly double the previous record gender gap in exit polls dating to 1976, ABC News reported.

A woman will surely be on the Democratic presidential ticket, as either the nominee or the VP pick.

Talk is cheap. Trump needs a secret weapon to get alienated women voters back into his fold.

Last spring, Trump was asking his longtime friends and members of his inner circle whether keeping Pence on the ticket was a shrewd decision heading into 2020, Politico reported in December.

Trump was talking up Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador, as a possible running mate.

Would he consider replacing Vice President Mike Pence with a woman on the 2020 ticket?

I rang up Pat Brady. The former chairman of the Republican Party of Illinois said he would be surprised if Trump dumped Pence.

Pence is a very trusted and relied upon adviser to the president, said Brady, a consultant, lobbyist and attorney who keeps close tabs on political and corporate affairs.

Bradys GOP friends in Washington tell him Pence is the guy on [Trumps] schedule daily, more than almost anybody. Hes in every meeting.

Besides, abandoning Pence would create so much consternation in conservative circles and so many problems for Trump that he doesnt need.

Right now, Trump is savoring one of the best weeks of his presidency after delivering a powerful State of the Union speech and reveling in his impeachment acquittal.

But if anyone knows how to ruin a good thing, its this president.

During his acquittal celebration in the White House East Room, he berated U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and declared the investigation into Russian electoral interference was bullshit. He labeled one adversary a sleazebag.

Others scum.

Heres some unsolicited, free advice for the Trump campaign.

I guarantee your candidate will continue to alienate women, no matter how much he panders. If anything, the gender gap will grow. He may need a Plan B.

For any other president, dumping an uber-loyal vice president would be unthinkable.

It would be a cinch for Trump. He knows no allegiance beyond whatever will save his orange skin.

Trump is the ultimate transactional president. Whats good for Trump personally had better be good for everyone else.

Pence and the rest of you are highly dispensable.

Send letters to: letters@suntimes.com.

Follow this link:
To win the suburban vote, Trump might want to dump Pence and put a woman on the ticket | Laura Washington - Chicago Sun-Times

The three-week impeachment trial of President Trump came to a close last Wednesday as the Senate voted to acquit him of abusing power and obstructing justice.

The outcome wasnt unexpected; In December, Senate-majority leader Mitch McConnell publicly announced his plans to work closely with White House lawyers, dissolving hopes for an unbiased trial.

While foreseeable, the proceedings results have left many troubled with the consequences. This is best exemplified by reactions of late-night hosts, such as Samantha Bee: the Senate has set a devastating precedent. Future presidents can solicit foreign interference in an election; they can investigate private citizens. There are no rules.

Nevertheless, whether one is left disappointed by a muddied due process characterized by a tilted system of check and balances, those hoping to see a Democratic alternative to Trump in 2020 may actually find comfort in his acquittal. A Trump-free Oval Office would mean, potentially, a Mike Pence candidacy, whis is a reality that would threaten the likelihood of a liberal presidency.

In such a hypothetical situation, Pence, the current vice president, would have every reason to campaign once in office. History has revealed a pattern of vice presidents running after their term in office. Following Nixons resignation, Gerold Ford ran against Jimmy Carter in 1976. So did Al Gore after Bill Clintons impeachment, contesting against Bush in 2000.

Some have already laughed at the prospect of Pence in such power, his inflexible religious views and spouse-obsessed lifestyle being the center of ridicule. Bee said, It would have been fun seeing Pence try to figure out if he wants to call his wife first lady mother or first mother lady, referring to a 2017 Rolling Stone claim that Pence calls his wife mother.

The idea of Mike Pence who has remained largely out of the scandal spotlight throughout Trumps reign as the nations top executive feels so foolish that theres even a satirical website for his campaign, proclaiming, among other things that Jesus Christ is his running mate.

Yet, whatever his caricature, a Pence candidacy would overturn much of the current Democratic drive against Trump. Most of the competitors run on the promise of dismantling President Trumps provoking policies in essence, a promise to bring the nation back to a familiar normality.

A normality Pence represents.

Even during the 2016 election, Pences status quo persona provided much to appreciate. In an New Yorker article, Steve Bannon, a former White House chief strategist, said, Trumps got the populist nationalists, but Pence is the base. Without Pence, you dont win.

As a politician with experience and a cool temperament an immense contrast to Trump Pence would spell trouble for those Democrats who pride themselves on being just that. One example is Joe Biden, who has proven to be the most conventional of the runners.

In addition to President Trumps base, Pence could rally the few on the right who disapprove of Trump but feel uneasy or at odds with the Democratic campaigns, especially the more progressive ones. For instance, in the words of a Politico article, as long as Pence is perceived as having restored honor and dignity, to the White House, Warrens crusade against corruption might feel outdated.

Moreover, though less obviously, president-want-to-be Pence would have the financial backing to jump-start his campaign, something of significance in modern elections. In the same New Yorker article mentioned previously, much was also revealed about Pences profound ties with the Koch family, for whom he pursued certain policies in exchange for financial backing.

The two are so deeply connected that, in 2014, a Republican strategist told Politico that the whole Koch operation had become the shadow headquarters of Pence for President, according to the New Yorker.

With the impeachment trial wrapped up and President Trump continuing on with his first term, Democratic candidates have sustained their increased chance of placing one of their own in the oval office. Though upsetting to many, Trumps acquittal means avoiding a greater threat that of candidate Pence, a would-be serious runner with far-reaching financial backing and a far less stained past. Democrats can now safely continue with their arranged objectives.

At least until 2024.

Filip De Mott is a sophomore Journalism and International Affairs major. Contact Filip at demottfs@dukes.jmu.edu.

Read more:
Opinion | Would Pence Make a Tougher Candidate? - The Breeze