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Im an enormous admirer of Pence, and no one can doubt the sincerity and honor of Danforth, but this is too simplistic and runs counter both to the history of conservatism and to its present.

One problem with the all-or-nothing formulation is that, based on the current correlation of political forces,itwould mean nothing for conservatives. Certainly, if this question is being litigated in the 2024 primary, the hope for conservatism with Trump currently stomping the rest of the field is not high.

But its never been an all-or-nothing proposition before. Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush all had broad populist streaks.

Consider Reagan, obviously a hero and exemplar for conservatives. Ina signature 1977 speech to CPAC, he pushed back against the idea that conservatives were a small group of ideological purists trying to capture a majority. No, they were a majority trying to assert its rights against the tyranny of powerful academics, fashionable left-revolutionaries, some economic illiterates who happen to hold elective office and the social engineers who dominate the dialogue and set the format in political and social affairs.

Ronald Reagan had deep-seated views that ran counter to contemporary populism. | Doug Mills/AP Photo

He referred to a New Republican party that will not be, and cannot, be one limited to the country club-big business image that, for reasons both fair and unfair, it is burdened with today. The New Republican Party I am speaking about is going to have room for the man and the woman in the factories, for the farmer, for the cop on the beat and the millions of Americans who may never have thought of joining our party before, but whose interests coincide with those represented by principled Republicanism. If we are to attract more working men and women of this country, we will do so not by simply making room for them, but by making certain they have a say in what goes on in the party.

Reagans position on the Panama Canal We built it, we paid for it, its ours was meant to pull emotional strings. He criticized crime, welfare and affirmative action in sometimes harsh terms that shocked polite opinion. He identified with the rising social conservatives, who were, according to their elite critics, the great unwashed of American politics, the way Tea Party activists and Trump enthusiasts would be portrayed decades later.

In his book, The Right, Matt Continetti notes that the supply-sider journalist Jude Wanniski predicted a Reagan landslide in 1980 because he is a conservative populist where Goldwater was a conservative elitist.

Now, of course, Reagan had deep-seated views that ran counter to contemporary populism he was a dyed-in-the-wool free marketer, who supported free trade and immigration and a vigorous, if prudent, American posture abroad.

Needless to say, Trump is much more of a pure populist, but even he wasnt all or nothing as president. He pursued and achieved a number of significant traditional conservative policy goals, whether tax cuts, deregulation, more exploitation of fossil fuels, destroying a terrorist enemy overseas, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and appointing conservative justices, among others.

On many specific issues, theres overlap between the two supposedly irreconcilable sides of the Republican Party. There are conservative and populist reasons to disdain and counter the elites who want to impose ESG on companies, who run our system of higher education, who seek to force a green-energy revolution and who were advocates for lockdowns and mandates during the pandemic.

Everyone on the right is hostile to the permanent governing apparatus in Washington, D.C., whether they call it the bureaucracy, the administrative state or the deep state. And everyone distrusts the press whether they call it the mainstream media, the legacy media or the corporate media. Those terms can have different nuances of meaning, with the favored populist phrases deep state and corporate media having more edge and a greater flavor of anti-elitism.

Former Sen. John Danforth says populists stoke anus v. them division. | Jeff Roberson/AP Photo

A basic issue in this discussion is how to define populism, which is a nebulous concept. Perhaps the most basic populist idea is that the people should be trusted more than the elites and are better than the elites something most post-World War II conservatives, certainly those in elective politics, have believed, too.

Populism is also simply a mode of politics in a democracy. Success usually requires identifying with the broad mass of the public and having an identity markedly distinct from the governing elite for instance, both Reagan and George W. Bush were brush-clearing cowboys in their spare time.

Danforth says populists stoke anus v. them division and contrasts them with Abraham Lincoln, who sought to preserve the Union.

The weakness in this contrast is that Lincoln himself had populist appeal thats what the branding as a rail-splitter was about (in reality, the politically ambitious, upwardly mobile attorney had zero fondness for rail-splitting). And perhaps our most populist president, Andrew Jackson, was a confirmed Unionist.

Also, the substantive content of populism changes over time. In Lincolns day, support for tariffs and industrial policy key elements of Lincolns policy constituted elitist economics. Now, of course, the opposite is true.

Theres a genuine debate between conservatives and populists over trade, industrial policy, levels of federal spending and foreignaffairs. These are consequential questions, but its easy to imagine shades-of-gray outcomes in all of these policy debates that fall within or close to the practical Republican consensus over the years.

The deeper problem with populism is that its suspicion of elites can curdle into conspiracy theories. Its belief in the importance of the democratic will can express itself in an impatience with constitutional constraints. Its natural combativeness canleadto an effort to find, and create, enemies that knows no bounds.

All of which brings us to Donald Trump. Danforth writes, Populists have relentlessly undermined our Constitution. They have falsely asserted that elections are rigged, that President Biden is illegitimate, and that we should ignore our courts. They have opposed the peaceful transfer of power and encouraged a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol.

If Donald Trump wins, his style of politics will be further vindicated in the GOP and lead to yet more imitators. | Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo

But Ron DeSantis is a populist-inflected Republican who hasnt, say, encouraged mobs to attack the Capitol. What Danforth is talking about here is the most fervent Trump supporters, which is why his qualifier elsewhere in the piece of Trumpian populism is important.

Its possible to favor greater regulation of freight rail an early legislative priority of the populist Republicansenatorfrom Ohio, J.D. Vance without buying into any of Trumps lunatic rants on Truth Social.

The crux of the matter is that if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, the GOP will have embraced or looked past his unworthy conduct and sentiments that in any other Republican Party would have been considered disqualifying. Mike Pence and John Danforth are right to warn against that and fight to keep it from happening.

If Trump wins, his style of politics will be further vindicated in the GOP and lead to yet more imitators. Already, Vivek Ramaswamy has seemed to go out of his way to make people think he believes in conspiracy theories in order to gain street cred, and the performative outlandishness of Arizonas Kari Lake has made her a political celebrity.

The stakes are indeed large, even if this isnt really a fight between conservatism and populism.

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Opinion | Since When Is Populism the Enemy of Conservatism? - POLITICO

Mike Pence sat on Wednesday in a cavernous machine shop that was humming with activity as he preached old-time Republican religion: the dangers of the swelling national debt, the need to overhaul Social Security and Medicare, the perils of price controls on prescription drugs and the necessity of projecting military might across the globe.

No more than two dozen Iowans had come to C & C Machining in Centerville to hear the last Republican vice president as he pursues his partys nomination for president. And the ones who showed werent so sure how many G.O.P. voters still believed in a gospel that his former running mate, Donald J. Trump, has spent eight years rendering largely obsolete.

The old conservative Republicanism, those are my ideals, Art Kirchoff, 53, an insurance agency owner, said approvingly to explain why he would vote for Mr. Pence in the Iowa caucuses this January. He had come at the behest of the machine shops owner, Gaylon Cowan, a friend, and, Mr. Kirchoff conceded, he wasnt sure how many of his kind are left in the party. Thats a good question.

Mr. Pence says often that there is no one more qualified to be the nominee and more battle tested than him, a former House member, former Indiana governor and former vice president. There is, of course, a former president in the race: Mr. Trump, the man Mr. Pence stood behind and supported for four tumultuous years. But when Mr. Trump asked his loyal vice president to violate his oath of office, Mr. Pence says, he stood by the Constitution.

By force of will, Mr. Pence grabbed the microphone at the first Republican primary debate this month more than anyone else onstage, speaking for 12 minutes and 37 seconds, much of that time devoted to his actions on Jan. 6, 2021, the day he certified his own defeat at the hands of Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Kamala Harris after a pro-Trump mob had ransacked the Capitol and called for his death. At the debate in Milwaukee, the former vice president stretched his airtime by demanding the other seven candidates onstage to his left and right attest to his righteousness.

It was a fun night, Mr. Pence said on Wednesday.

And by dint of his time in the White House, he holds real celebrity status on the hustings. On Thursday, at the Old Threshers Reunion, a sprawling fair and farm-equipment showcase in Mount Pleasant, Iowa, he was mobbed by well-wishers.

But then there was Jamison Plank, a 25-year-old pastor, who grabbed Mr. Pences hand and demanded to know whether he would vote for Mr. Trump if the former president was the nominee. Mr. Pence demurred, saying he was confident the question was moot, that Mr. Pence would win.

Mr. Plank was not.

Im worried that the Republican establishment is going to destroy Trump, he said. I appreciate Mike Pence. I appreciate his faith. I just dont see him winning.

The former vice presidents time in the spotlight at the debate did not lift his position in the polls, where he continues to languish in the low-single digits. He is far behind Mr. Trump, but also behind Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and a political newcomer, Vivek Ramaswamy, whose position on the issues and perhaps in national polling averages seems to inspire Mr. Pence on the attack.

Hes wrong on foreign policy. Hes wrong on American leadership in the world. Hes wrong on how we get this economy moving again, Mr. Pence said on Wednesday of his 38-year-old rival, adding, Ive been in the room in the West Wing, and I can tell you, the president doesnt get to decide what crises he faces.

The crisis he was referring to was the debt and Mr. Ramaswamy's refusal to grapple with the cost of Social Security and Medicare, entitlement programs groaning under the weight of the retiring Baby Boom generation. But Mr. Trump has said he too will not touch the popular social benefit programs for retirees, as has Mr. DeSantis.

And those three brawlers, who have elevated their battles with deep state bureaucrats, left-wing socialists and globalist hawks far above the green eyeshade concerns of federal budgeting, have for now captured the allegiance of 75 percent of Republican primary voters, leaving the more traditional Republicans in the race like Mr. Pence fighting over the crumbs.

If they started listening to the message and not just the hoorah, maybe traditional conservatism could rise again, Mr. Cowan, 53, said of Republican voters after Mr. Pence spoke at his factory.

Mr. Pence likes to say he was conservative before it was cool, a low-tax, small-government Republican willing to fight his own party. Mr. Pences positions have the same throwback feel as his pleated khakis, blue blazers and light-blue broadcloth shirts. In Iowa this week, Mr. Pence railed against the Biden administrations landmark legislation to allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices the same policy Mr. Trump endorsed, though failed to achieve.

In a survey late last year by KFF, a health policy research organization, 89 percent of Democrats and 77 percent of Republicans said they favored the plank of the Inflation Reduction Act that authorizes negotiations.

His warnings against overspending come as companies like C & C brace for a huge infusion of new work funded by Mr. Bidens infrastructure law, another achievement that the Trump-Pence administration promised but did not secure. Mr. Cowan said once repair and replacement orders started rolling in from the companies building new roads, bridges, tunnels and rail lines, its going to help our business tremendously.

On Thursday morning at Weaton Companies in Fairfield, Iowa, Cory Westphal, an executive at Dexter Laundry, an industrial washer and dryer maker, fretted that aggressive union negotiators could drive up wages and labor costs. Mr. Pence answered that he cut the corporate income tax rate to 15 percent, from 21 percent.

Beyond the issues is a more existential question dogging Mr. Pences candidacy: If a majority or at least a strong plurality of Republican primary voters believe the lie that the 2020 election was stolen, how can the man who certified it secure their support? Mr. Pence has tried to turn the liability of his certification into an asset, a profile in courage on the fateful day of Jan. 6, 2021.

It works for some.

Everything he went through with Trump, I just admire that he did the right thing, Julie Vantiger Hicks, 58, said after getting her picture with Mr. Pence at Threshers Reunion. Hes an admirable man.

But Mr. Pence was hardly outspoken among the few Republican leaders in the weeks and months before and after the attack on the Capitol who tried to dispel the conspiracy theories around the election that continue to divide the nation.

My objective once the violence was quelled, the Congress reconvened and finished our work under the Constitution of the United States, and after the president denounced the riot and committed to a peaceful transfer of power was to see to that orderly transition, Mr. Pence answered when asked if he could have done more to head off the division that he now faces.

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In Iowa, Pence Preaches Old-School Conservatism to a Dwindling Flock - The New York Times

The fundraiser was held at Lucas sprawling Indiana estate in Carmel, Pences adopted hometown since moving back from Washington, D.C., in 2021. Tickets to a private roundtable sold for $6,600 per person, while reception tickets went for $1,000. The host committee included Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb, Rep. Larry Bucshon and Fred Klipsch, the stereo magnate, among others.

Hes now redefining who he is, said Smith, a Pence backer who has maxed out to the Hoosier candidate. He just needs to stay under the hoop.

In a memo to donors following the debate, Pence campaign manager Steve DeMaura wrote that even after weathering two years of attacks from Trump, Our strategy is not sexy. It does not take $150 million today. And does not involve trying to be a Trump clone or single-mindedly running to repudiate him. The campaign did not disclose whether Pence saw a post-debate bump among small-dollar donors.

Pences allied super PAC, Committed to America, also saw a spike in fundraising. The PAC saw an additional $250,000 flow in the day after the debate, Mike Ricci, a spokesperson, told POLITICO.

Pence has been polling in single digits in the primary, though post-debate polling has yet to be released. In Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucus state, he was bunched up at 6 percent with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the recent Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll. But the fundraising bump is noteworthy for a candidate some pundits have left for political dead.

Pence, among the later candidates to announce, has already qualified for the second GOP debate, surpassing the donor and polling thresholds not long after he qualified for the first. Pences Advancing American Freedom nonprofit built a pool of 140,000 donors prior to his presidential campaign, many of whom are donating to him now.

Some dire headlines just last month raised concerns about his fundraising ability, but some of Pences biggest donors say they expected the timing of his candidacy would mean he would qualify for the first debate later than other candidates.

He raised a substantial amount of money in a short period of time and did it in a couple of weeks, but it took Nikki Haley and the other candidates months, said Art Pope, the former chair of Americans for Prosperity and a Raleigh, N.C.-based Pence donor.

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'Where did that guy come from?' Pence nets post-debate fundraising bump - POLITICO

Former Vice President and current Republican presidential candidate Mike Pence on Tuesday said that if elected, he would immediately end Biden-era telework policies,institute a spending freeze for non-defense federal agenciesand ban all federal funding of gender affirming care for minors. The proposals werepart of a laundry list of executive actions Pence said hewould undertake on his first day in the White House.

The former vice president remains a distant fifth place for the Republican presidential nomination at 4.5%,according to FiveThirtyEights national polling average. Former President Trump retains a commanding lead in the raceat 49.9%, based onFiveThirtyEight's polls.

President Biden weakened us at home and he weakened our place in the world, Pence said. With all humility, I believe Im the most qualified, best prepared candidate in this field, and we will be ready on Day One to move policies that will turn this country around, and our Day One executive action plan is an attempt to lay out a vision for those initial actions we believe will begin to set our nation right.

First, Pence vowed to reverse an automatic 1% decrease in defense spending that would take hold if lawmakers cannot reach a full-year appropriations deal by May 2024 and, conversely, freeze non-defense spending, which he argued has contributed to inflation. However, inflation has been on the decline since last fall.

Well get runaway spending under control by freezing non-defense federal spending on Day One of my administration, he said. Well also reverse all of the Biden administrations energy executive orders and unleash American energy and open up access to all of Americas reserves and through leasing programs for oil and natural gas.

Pence also suggested that he would roll back the telework policies developed during the COVID-19 pandemic and continued during the Biden administration, saying he would end work from home for federal workers. Pences plan was light on details, however.

Americans around the country have gotten back to work since the pandemic ended and are working to get this economy moving again, his campaign wrote in a blog post Tuesday. Meanwhile, federal employees are still working from home at record rates . . . Federal bureaucrats should be working just as hard as the American workers they are supposedly serving. Thats why President Pence will issue an executive order to get federal employees back to work immediately.

A number of proposals Pence revealed Tuesday on health care issues could also have ramifications for federal workers. The former vice president said he would end policies within the Defense and Veterans Affairs departments aimed at preserving federal workers and veterans access to abortions, as well as endthe Justice Departments work in support of litigation challenging state abortion bans. And he said the federal government would cease funding of programs that help transgender minors receive gender-affirming care.

I would end any fundingdirect or indirectfor child transgender procedures anywhere in the United States, and we would block funding to schools that promote child transgender chemical or physical procedures. We simply have got to protect our kids from the radical gender agenda of the American left, as well as reinstate protections for religious groups of any persuasion in federal contracting.

Once again, the details of Pences plan remained vague, but such a measure could endanger federal workers and their families access to gender affirming care through their employer-sponsored insurance, the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program.

Today, the Department of Health and Human Services official guidance to medical providers states that early gender affirming care is crucial to overall health, the Pence campaign wrote. President Pence will reverse these misguided policies on Day One and make it clear that government health agencies will never advocate for radical transgender ideology. President Pence will also issue executive orders directing all agencies to defund any programs that accept federal money and provide surgical or chemical gender reassignment on children in the U.S. or around the world.

Transgender advocates argue that conservatives vastly overestimate the number of people receiving gender affirming care, and in fact, the process to gain access to treatments is often long and arduous.

Notably absent from Pences Day One agenda is any mention of a systematic effort to make it easier to fire federal workers or target the so-called deep state, such as Schedule F, an abortive effort at the end of the Trump administration to make federal workers in policy-related positions effectively at-will employees. Both Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have said they would reinstitute the proposal immediately upon taking office, and the Heritage Foundation has endorsed the idea as part of its 1,000-page presidential transition handbook.

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Pence 'Day 1' plan includes a telework rollback, spending freeze ... - GovExec.com

Former Vice President Mike Pence sought once more on Wednesday to define himself as the staunchest opponent of abortion in the Republican field, citing his faith and taking a swipe at the former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, who has tried to pull off a difficult balancing act on the issue.

To be honest with you, Nikki youre my friend, but consensus is the opposite of leadership, Mr. Pence said, criticizing Ms. Haley for saying there needed to be congressional consensus between Republicans and Democrats before the federal government could play a role in restricting abortion. Its not a states-only issue. Its a moral issue.

Ms. Haley, who often calls herself unapologetically pro-life, fired back that Mr. Pence was being dishonest about what was politically possible. When youre talking about a federal ban, be honest with the American people, she said, arguing that the 60-vote filibuster threshold in the Senate meant that no Democratic or Republican president would be able to set abortion policy. Do not make women feel like they have to decide on this issue.

The exchange underscored the deep and emotional divide that has emerged among Republicans since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Since that ruling last year, Republican-led states have rushed to outlaw or impose stringent restrictions on abortion, to a fierce electoral backlash. Surveys show record numbers of Americans support at least some level of access to abortion, and some of the top Republican presidential candidates have waffled or struggled with their positions in light of that fact.

On the debate stage, candidates insisted they were pro-life but did not agree on whether to support a federal ban at 15 weeks gestation. Still, some tried to use the moment to break out.

We cannot let states like California, New York, Illinois have abortions on demand, said Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina, who also claimed falsely that those states allow abortion without limits until birth.

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Mike Pence and Nikki Haley Clash Over Abortion at GOP Debate - The New York Times