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Yet, three days after that poll hit, Democrats took Republicans behind the woodshed, enshrining the right to make reproductive decisions in the Ohio constitution, taking control of the Virginia legislature, taking a state supreme court seat in Pennsylvania, and reelecting a popular Democrat as governor in the deep-red state of Kentucky.

This all gave me whiplash. Just like in 2011, we have an early poll screaming doom and gloom for a Democratic incumbent. Yes, we are officially in the Democratic bedwetting era for the 2024 presidential election. But heres some advice from someone whos been here before: Dont panic. Heres why.

Silvers 2011 analysis did not age well: A year later, Obama wiped the floor with Mitt Romney. But Silver wasnt alone. In this publication, polling done a year out had Obama tied with Romney in 10 battleground states; we ended up winning 9 of them. In December 2011, a Gallup poll had Obama losing to Romney by 5 percent across 12 battleground states; we won 11. Bill Clinton trailed about this same time in his reelection cycle. A year before a presidential election, it is just too early to get an accurate read on how the people will actually vote. There are a few reasons for this.

The people who take the time to answer pollster questions right now are already politically engaged. They are either die-hard partisans or trying to make a point. But swing voters arent tuned in yet and may not decide who to back until very late, and they are the ones who will decide this election.

You cant predict what hasnt happened yet. Think of all the election-shattering news that happened in the year before. In 2008, the subprime bubble popped, cratering the economy. In Obamas reelection, the economy rebounded and then Hurricane Sandy hit, focusing attention on the presidents empathy and effectiveness in a crisis. In 2016, we all got sick of the phrase, But Her Emails! and in 2020, a global pandemic turned the election on its head. Next year, what will it be? Will Trump go to prison? Its possible. (Can you campaign from behind bars?) I wouldnt even call these October surprises you can almost guarantee that something big and unexpected will happen next year.

Elections are a choice, and we havent formalized that choice yet. Once voters know their options, their opinions change. While I dont see any likely alternative than a rematch between Biden and Trump in 2024, thats not what voters see. There is still a GOP primary going on, and several candidates left for Trump to officially beat.

Instead of fretting about early polls, Democrats should follow real data like voter registration, special elections, and turnout and concentrate on what matters:

Focus on the economic message. Back in 2011, we were in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and unemployment was historically high. But I believed then and I still believe that the economy is what voters care about most, so we focused our energy on building up Obamas economic message. Specifically, we talked about how the president saved the American auto industry and how it created hundreds of thousands of jobs. That work paid off, with approval of Obamas handling of the economy rising from 35 percent in November 2011 to 48 percent right before the election. The Biden campaign has a much better economy than we did in 2011, and its individual policies are very popular; there is still plenty of time to break through with voters the policies they like are actually Bidenomics.

Double down on the battleground states. In 2011, the data told us that working class voters in battleground states would decide the election. The Biden campaign knows that there are just seven battleground states this time, with a few paths to victory. Biden can win if he holds onto the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; he can hold onto his gains from 2020 in the Sunbelt; and he can try to expand the map by winning North Carolina. And Biden has smartly already begun this work, with the campaign increasing its $25 million advertising spend in these key states.

Get ready for the GOP opponent that Biden has already defeated once. In 2011, we didnt know who wed face in the general election. We also didnt know how formidable Romney would be. But very likely, this is going to be a choice between Biden or Trump. With Biden, you get a president who has passed historic legislation, running on popular policies with little-to-no drama in the White House. With Trump, you have a candidate charged with 91 felony counts and a different court date every week. Trump means right-wing extremism, everyday chaos, criminal behavior, fundamental freedoms stripped away, and a rejection of democratic norms. While some will argue that Trump is already defined in voters minds, many Americans still arent paying close attention to the election. I believe voters will move in Bidens direction when they hear what the president has done, and get reminded (by Democrats and Biden himself) of the chaotic, lawless circus that was Trumps presidency.

This will be a very close election, and there will be plenty more times Democrats will feel nervous. But what will make a difference is the work itself, engaging voters and spreading a positive message about his accomplishments, economic policies, and views on issues like abortion and freedoms. Biden has been counted out time and time again, and hes proved pollsters and pundits wrong. His campaign (along with the rest of us) needs to ignore the noise and build the strong campaign it needs to win just like in 2020. And Democrats need to remember what I learned back in 2011: Voters decide elections, not polls.

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Consider the many questions. How do you regulate AI without stifling innovation? How do you ensure global cooperation and standards? How do you protect vulnerable industries and job markets? How do you make sure tight controls at home dont result in geopolitical rivals like China surging ahead? It will take a leader of exceptional talent to even begin to tackle all or any of that. Obama is uniquely qualified and seems invigorated by the challenge.

While Donald Trump is often viewed as the Twitter president, it was Obama who was the first to be elected thanks to the then-emerging medium of social media. With a tech-savvy young campaign staff, Obama was able to secure many small donations from a vast number of people, raising his profile in a way that might have proved more difficult with traditional media outlets alone.

In office, he was an extremely digitally literate president. He appointed the federal governments first chief technology officer and later directed the creation of the US Digital Service a department, inspired by a similar outfit in the UK, that was responsible for revamping many of the governments online services. If youve visited government websites that dont look like relics from the mid-1990s, you can often thank the service. While it had a troubled launch, Healthcare.gov went on to enroll tens of millions of Americans in health care.

These feats were only possible thanks to Obamas concerted effort to get capable technology brains into government jobs and to make public service a more appealing prospect for those who could otherwise pursue better pay in Silicon Valley. The government had been leveled up. We are far better equipped to handle the AI revolution because President Obama laid those foundations, said Jennifer Pahlka, who served as US deputy chief technology officer under Obama, when I spoke to her this week. Obama seems ready to do it again, telling The Verge the country needs hotshot young people who are interested in AI to do a stint outside of the companies themselves and go work for government for a while.

Pahlkas new book, Recoding America, isnt ostensibly about artificial intelligence, but it does highlight the work that needs to be done within government to overcome some of the bureaucracies that might slow down progress as America seeks to adopt and contain AI. Encouragingly, the book appeared recently on Obamas shared reading list in which he detailed some sources he had used to shape my perspective over the past year. Hes trying to say something with that list, Pahlka suggests, noting Obamas careful balance of material highlighting AIs harms but also sources that speak of its potential.

His respect of technology companies and the work they do made Obama a mostly popular figure in Silicon Valley, so much so that when he left the White House, some speculated that he might become a venture capitalist. During his time in office, he held town halls at top companies such as LinkedIn and Meta Platforms Inc. and was the star draw at 2016s South by Southwest Festival in Austin, Texas, one of the premier technology events of the year. When Obama made a historic trip to Cuba, he took with him Brian Chesky, the chief executive officer of Airbnb Inc. (Following a stint at Amazon.com Inc., Jay Carney, Obamas former press secretary, is now Airbnbs head of policy one of several former Obama figures to find roles in tech.) Bidens relationship with big tech is rockier.

But Obama knows where Silicon Valley thinking hits its limits. Government will never run the way Silicon Valley runs because, by definition, democracy is messy, he said in 2016. This is a big, diverse country with a lot of interests and a lot of disparate points of view. And part of governments job, by the way, is dealing with problems that nobody else wants to deal with.

Obamas record on tech is not without its blemishes, however. As president, he oversaw some of the most egregiously harmful use of cutting-edge tech, with drone warfare and the NSAs dragnet of surveillance. And those who think technology companies have become too powerful point to Obama upholding an antitrust status quo that failed to challenge big tech deals, such as Facebooks acquisitions of WhatsApp and Instagram.

It must also be said that one technology that can be enormously harmful, social media, exploded under his watch. As he benefited from the enormous boost it gave to his campaigning and reputation, he was perhaps less focused on the emerging harms of hate speech and misinformation.

These are subjects he seems to be thinking about deeply now. At a recent event held in Chicago to commemorate the 15th anniversary of his election victory, Obama was in a reflective mood, one of his former staffers told me, discussing his time in office and the current state of the world, then asking: Was there something else I could have done?

Well, if Obama is feeling regret, then he should channel that energy toward dealing with AI, which will come to encompass many issues we know Obama cares deeply about. It will affect fairness in policing, in voting rights, in job creation and workforce diversity. It will transform education and access to it. It is already upending creative industries (the Obamas own a production company) and the legal profession (he used to be a lawyer). He has been deepfaked perhaps more than any other individual.

You wont find a more capable figure who can harness the best of Silicon Valley while understanding how vital it is to keep such advancements under sensible control.

Link:
Obama is the AI czar we need for global cooperation - Deccan Herald

The Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policys will host a discussion with Cody Keenan, former White House director of speech writing when Barack Obama was president of the U.S. This event will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 14, at 7 p.m. in the Bazarsky Lecture Hall in OHare Academic Building. To register, go here.

Cody Keenan will discuss the ten most dramatic days of Obamas presidency when a hate-fueled massacre happened at a Black church in 2015 and looming Supreme Court decisions put the character of the country on the line and how a presidents words can bring a nation together or tear it apart. The discussion will be based on a book hes written entitled Grace: President Obama and Ten Days in the Battle for America.

Keenan wrote with Barack Obama for nearly fourteen years, rising from a campaign intern in Chicago to director of speechwriting at the White House and Obamas post-presidential collaborator. Hes been named the Springsteen of the Obama White House, Obama calls him Hemingway, and British GQ once listed him as one of the 35 Coolest Men under 38 (and a Half).

Keenan got his start in public service as a young aide to the legendary senator Edward M. Kennedy. He holds a masters degree from Harvard Universitys John F. Kennedy School of Government and a B.A. from Northwestern University, where he teaches a course on speechwriting.

A sought-after expert on politics, messaging and current affairs, he is now a partner at leading speechwriting firm Fenway Strategies and teaches a popular course on political speechwriting to undergraduates at Northwestern University.

To register for the event on Tuesday, Nov. 14, at 7 p.m, go here.

Featured image by Shane Collins

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Attend discussion with Cody Keenan, former speech writer for ... - SALVEtoday

The tower of the Obama Presidential Center is getting a lot of attention as it rises in Jackson Park on the South Side. Meanwhile, Louise Bernard is trying to build the centerpiece museums interior: balancing former President Barack Obamas philosophy and his namesake foundations mission with historical accuracy in a time of corrosive partisanship.

While plans for the centers outer shell have been known (and litigated over) for years, its insides and the narrative Obamas team plans to present over four floors of distinct exhibits have largely been unknown.

The woman leading that narrative charge is Bernard, a native of the United Kingdom who was named museum director in the spring of 2017.

During an exclusive interview, Bernard said she has grappled with how to approach Obamas history and the controversies and challenges from his two terms in office, and present them at an institution critics worry will turn into yet another of the presidential temples of spin instead of an unbiased reflection of the time.

Among those Obama-era controversies: the rise of drone warfare, occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, failure to close Guantnamo Bay, and the more fragile aspects of the landmark Affordable Care Act and nuclear agreement with Iran.

Bernard said while the center has an emphasis on the values-based leadership of the president and Michelle Obama, her team leaned hard into using primary source documents that help show the Obamas thinking at the time they made decisions in the White House. And she noted the historical interpretation is almost certain to shift and evolve with time.

Of drones, for instance, Bernard said the museum team sought to place them in the context of the administrations goals for national security certainly there was critique from both the left and the right. The president wanted for us, in terms of exhibit-making, to engage around the complexities of decision-making, the differing perspectives and the idea that work always remains beyond one given president or the work of administration.

There are things that he simply couldnt accomplish during his time in office, and hes very open in acknowledging that and tasking people to continue the work, she said.

Obviously, were telling the story of a particular president and no museum is ever neutral in its storytelling. Theres a particular point of view, Bernard said.

But the fact-checking and sourcing have been rigorous, she said. Every single word is weighed, every date is checked, every name, every face in an image is checked for accuracy. And at the end of the day, the history is still playing itself out. Its still very recent history.

Bernard is no stranger to big, complex public exhibits that invite scrutiny.

Louise Bernard at the Barack Obama Foundations headquarters in Hyde Park on Oct. 26, 2023. Bernard was named museum director in 2017. (Terrence Antonio James/Chicago Tribune)

Plucked from her spot as director of exhibitions at the New York Public Library, Bernard is an Americanist with a Ph.D. in African American studies and American studies from Yale and a masters in English from Indiana University.

She was previously on the design team for the national Smithsonian Museum of African American History and Culture in Washington and advised on the International Museum of African American History in Charleston, South Carolina.

She and the president a Harvard grad praised and derided as an intellectual speak a similar language, Bernard said.

I come out of a cultural, literary kind of background, academically, and so engaging with a president who is himself a writer, in the best tradition of American letters, is something that sits very well with me, she said. She also understands the global dynamics of his thinking and how its brought to bear on this particular project, even though its rooted in Chicago and in this idea of the Black metropolis.

Bernard said the foundation has worked with a series of subject matter experts, including presidential historians Doris Kearns Goodwin (author of the Abraham Lincoln biography Team of Rivals) and Douglas Brinkley, also a history professor at Rice University. They are part of a Storytelling Council that has advised the museums narrative.

President Obama has been engaged with reading the script, so to speak, the narrative that we tell in the museum, providing feedback but also deferring to other subject matter experts in the field and certainly to the historians who he respects and admires, Bernard says.

Obama has not vetoed any content, foundation spokesperson Courtney Williams said.

While Bernard describes their consultants as a Team of Rivals of sorts, there are friendly faces among the ranks: The fact-checking firm the museum is using, Silver Street Strategies, was founded by former leaders in the Obama White Houses research department.

Another historian on the team, Kenneth Mack, was an Obama classmate at Harvard Law who the president appointed to the Permanent Committee for the Oliver Wendell Holmes Devise, which documents the history of the Supreme Court.

NYU history professor Nikhil Singh was also tapped to advise on museum content in 2021. He considers himself one of the more critical voices from Obamas time: For one, he thinks the former president failed to be as transformative on the foreign policy stage as his supporters hoped and was an ambivalent figure, in a way when it came to the issues of policing and mass incarceration that ignited the Black Lives Matter movement. He hopes the museum grapples with that.

Singh was not asked to consult on any of the floors that involve Obamas presidency directly, but did weigh in on the sections that deal with American history pre-Obama, including the anti-Vietnam War, civil rights and student movements of the 1960s, what Obama considers a very formative period for him, Singh said.

Singh pressed for an emphasis on the importance of the labor movement at the time, which he said foundation officials were receptive to.

Clearly they werent afraid to consult broadly, I appreciate that Team of Rivals would be Obamas style, Singh told the Tribune. I think he does believe in history, more than a lot of other American presidents. Not just the kind of canned American history as myth, American exceptionalism, city on a hill ... but a history from below, of ordinary people making history.

I think thats what theyre trying to do with the museum, that he himself is a product of history, or a set of histories. Thats interesting, potentially, and instructive ... how it exists within a historical context rather than on high, Singh said. The idea of a history museum is one they took seriously and as a historian, I appreciate that.

Obama already eschewed the tradition of privately-funded but publicly-maintained presidential libraries, opting in 2017 not to build a library for the National Archives and Records Administration to house the presidencys paper records and physical artifacts. Instead, his private foundation is paying NARA to digitize the paper records from his presidency and simultaneously amassing its own collection of artifacts.

The break from NARA spurred worries from some historians and a former presidential museum director about the ease of access to information and potential partisanship in storytelling. Others argued it was better that complexes with a reputation for presidential propaganda were no longer propped up by federal taxpayers.

NARA will lend documents and artifacts from Obamas time in the White House for the museums exhibits, according to a foundation spokesperson. That includes paper documents for display as well as gifts from heads of state, objects from state dinners and other White House events, and Mrs. Obamas garments.

Bernard said interested historians will be able to access information online, including at the small Chicago Public Library branch that will be part of the OPCs campus.

The Obama Presidential Center under construction in the 6000 block of South Stony Island Avenue on Aug. 10, 2023. (Trent Sprague/Chicago Tribune)

The lantern-shaped building that will house the museum, meant to evoke four hands coming together, will be wrapped in a screen of text from Obamas speech marking the 50th anniversary of the police attacks on civil rights protesters in Selma, Alabama, known as Bloody Sunday.

Its the first of several references on the campus and museum to those on whose shoulders we stand, Bernard said. President Obamas story was only made possible because of the people who went before him, she said, a reflection about the power of everyday people willing to put their lives on the line for American democracy.

The museum itself will be housed in the middle of the building. Visitors will start on the ground floor and ascend through four floors of exhibits before reaching a sky room atop the structure, looking through the screen toward the South Side or north east to the lake and the Museum of Science and Industry.

In between will be a private presidential suite, where the President and Mrs. Obama can host VIPs, donors, world leaders and foundation program participants. Unlike the Clinton library, the building will not have a living space or apartment for the former first family.

The first floor exhibit will be Toward a More Perfect Union, Bernard said, referring to the building blocks of American democracy that would lead to the election of the nations first Black president ... the founding contradictions, abolition and reconstruction, the Progressive Era, womens suffrage, the New Deal, Great Society, and the modern civil rights movement.

Moving upward, next will be Working for the Common Good, recapping the Obama administration across two terms, tackling domestic and foreign policy, the push and pull of progress and key initiatives that the administration was working through, Bernard said.

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It will touch on the fallout from the Great Recession, the Affordable Care Act, Obamas immigration and education policies, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Obamas vision for foreign policy as it connects to a broader understanding of security and peace, Bernard said.

The third level will be the palate cleanser known as The Peoples House. It will have the replica of Obamas Oval Office (which visitors will be able to walk through and touch) as well as other replica White House rooms shrunk down and in the style of the Thorne Miniature Rooms at the Art Institute of Chicago.

The final level, We the People, picks up some of the key storytelling around the administrations work for the common good, including tribal, disability and LGBTQ rights; gender equity; criminal justice and policing reform; science, innovation and climate change.

The floor also revisits Obamas farewell address in Chicago, where he spoke about the importance of civic engagement and passing the baton back to the people to continue the work.

The idea is embedded throughout the space, Bernard said.

For people who are coming to the center and are coming to the museum, and they want to see the replica of the Oval Office, and they want to see Mrs. Obamas dresses, and they want to learn more about the Affordable Care Act, or whatever it may be, we want them to think about the change that they can make, however small. It really is those kind of small radical acts that add up to something bigger.

aquig@chicagotribune.com

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Obama center museum director talks about balance in the exhibits - Chicago Tribune