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DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) Few states have changed politically with the head-snapping speed of Iowa. Heading into 2020, the question is whether its going to change again.

In 2008, its voters propelled Barack Obama to the White House, as an overwhelmingly white state validated the candidacy of the first black president. A year later, Iowas Supreme Court sanctioned same-sex marriage, adding a voice of Midwestern sensibility to a national shift in public sentiment. In 2012, Iowa backed Obama again.

All that change proved too much, too fast, and it came as the Great Recession punished agricultural areas, shook the foundations of rural life and stoked a roiling sense of grievance.

By 2016, Donald Trump easily defeated Hillary Clinton in Iowa. Republicans were in control of the governors mansion and state legislature and held all but one U.S. House seat. For the first time since 1980, both U.S. Senate seats were in GOP hands.

What happened? Voters were slow to embrace Obamas signature health care law. The recession depleted college-educated voters as a share of the rural population, and Republicans successfully painted Democrats as the party of coastal elites.

Those forces combined for a swift Republican resurgence and helped create a wide lane for Trump.

The self-proclaimed billionaire populist ended up carrying Iowa by a larger percentage of the vote than in Texas, winning 93 of Iowas 99 counties, including places like working-class Dubuque and Wapello counties, where no Republican since Dwight D. Eisenhower had won.

But now, as Democrats turn their focus to Iowas kickoff caucuses that begin the process of selecting Trumps challenger, could the state be showing furtive signs of swinging back? Caucus turnout will provide some early measures of Democratic enthusiasm, and of what kind of candidate Iowas Democratic voters who have a good record of picking the Democratic nominee believe has the best chance against Trump.

If Iowas rightward swing has stalled, it could be a foreboding sign for Trump in other upper Midwestern states he carried by much smaller margins and would need to win again.

Theyve gone too far to the right and there is the slow movement back, Tom Vilsack, the only two-term Democratic governor in the past 50 years, said of Republicans. This is an actual correction.

Iowans unseated two Republican U.S. House members and nearly a third in 2018 during midterm elections where more Iowa voters in the aggregate chose a Democrat for federal office for the first time in a decade.

In doing so, Iowans sent the states first Democratic women to Congress: Cindy Axne, who dominated Des Moines and its suburbs, and Abby Finkenauer, who won in several working-class counties Trump carried.

Democrats won 14 of the 31 Iowa counties that Trump won in 2016 but Obama won in 2008, though Trumps return to the ballot in 2020 could change all that.

We won a number of legislative challenge races against incumbent Republicans, veteran Iowa Democratic campaign consultant Jeff Link said. I think that leaves little question Iowa is up for grabs next year.

Theres more going on in Iowa that simply a merely cyclical swing.

Iowas metropolitan areas, some of the fastest growing in the country over the past two decades, have given birth to a new political front where Democrats saw gains in 2018.

The once-GOP-leaning suburbs and exurbs, especially to the north and west of Des Moines and the corridor linking Cedar Rapids and the University of Iowa in Iowa City, swelled with college-educated adults in the past decade, giving rise to a new class of rising Democratic leaders.

I dont believe it was temporary, Iowa State University economist David Swenson said of Democrats 2018 gains in suburban Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. I think it is the inexorable outcome of demographic and educational shifts that have been going on.

The Democratic caucuses will provide a test of how broad the change may be.

I think it would be folly to say Iowa is not a competitive state, said John Stineman, a veteran Iowa GOP campaign operative and political data analyst who is unaffiliated with the Trump campaign but has advised presidential and congressional campaigns over the past 25 years. I believe Iowa is a swing state in 2020.

For now, that is not a widely held view, as Iowa has shown signs of losing its swing state status.

In the 1980s, it gave rise to a populist movement in rural areas from the left, the ascent of the religious right as a political force and the start of an enduring rural-urban balance embodied by Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley and Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin.

Now, after a decade-long Republican trend, there are signs of shifting alliances in people like Jenny OToole.

The 48-year-old insurance industry employee from suburban Cedar Rapids stood on the edge of the scrum surrounding former Vice President Joe Biden last spring, trying to get a glimpse as he shook hands and posed for pictures.

I was a Republican. Not any more, OToole said. Im socially liberal, but economically conservative. Thats what Im looking for.

OToole is among those current and new former Republicans who dot Democratic presidential events, from Iowa farm hubs to working-class river towns to booming suburbs.

Janet Cosgrove, a 75-year-old Episcopal minister from Atlantic, in western Iowa, and Judy Hoakison, a 65-year-old farmer from rural southwest Iowa, are Republicans who caught Mayor Pete Buttigiegs recent trip.

If such voters are a quiet warning to Trump in Iowa, similar symptoms in Wisconsin and Michigan, where Democrats also made 2018 gains, could be even more problematic.

Vilsack has seen the stage change dramatically. After 30 years of Republican dominance in Iowas governors mansion, he was elected in 1998 as a former small-city mayor and pragmatic state senator.

An era of partisan balance in Iowa took hold, punctuated by Democratic presidential nominee Al Gores 4,144-vote victory in Iowa in 2000, and George W. Bushs 10,059-vote re-election in 2004.

After the 2006 national wave swept Democrats into total Statehouse control for the first time in 50 years, the stage was set for Obamas combination of generational change, his appeal to anti-Iraq War sentiment and the historic opportunity to elect the first African American president.

We were like a conquering army, prepared to negotiate terms of surrender, said Cedar Rapids Democrat Dale Todd, an early Obama supporter and adviser.

Todd was one of a collection of Iowa Democratic activists who gathered at a downtown Des Moines sports bar last year to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of Obamas historic caucus campaign.

Just across the Des Moines River in the state Capitol, there was a reminder of how much the ground had shifted since those heady days.

Republicans control all of state government for the first time in 20 years. Part of their wholesale conservative agenda has included stripping public employee unions of nearly all bargaining rights, establishing new voter restrictions and outlawing abortion six weeks into a pregnancy.

It was in line with Republican takeovers in states such as Wisconsin that were completed earlier, but traced their beginnings to the same turbulent summer of 2009.

On a Wednesday in August that year, throngs flocked to Grassleys typically quiet annual county visits to protest his work with Democrats on health care legislation.

Thousands representing the emerging Tea Party forced Grassleys last event from a community center in the small town of Adel to the town park, where some booed the typically popular senator and held signs stating, Grassley, youre fired.

The events became a national symbol for uneasiness about the new presidents signature policy goal.

The previous April, Iowas nine-member Supreme Court Democratic and Republican appointees had unanimously declared same-sex marriage legal in the state. A year later, Christian conservatives successfully campaigned to oust the three Supreme Court justices facing retention, waving the marriage decision as their cause.

Four years later, Democrats had high expectations of holding the retiring Harkins Senate seat. But Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley lacked Harkins populist appeal, and was beaten by state Sen. Joni Ernst, an Iraq War veteran from rural Iowa who painted Braley as an elitist lawyer.

By 2016, Republicans had completed their long-sought statehouse takeover, in part by beating longtime Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal.

We tried in many cases to win suburbia, but we just couldnt lay a glove on it, Gronstal said. We just could not figure out how to crack it in Iowa.

The answer for Democrats in Iowa is much the same as the rest of the country: growing, vote-rich suburbs.

Dallas County, west of Des Moines, has grown by 121% since 2000, converting from a checkerboard of farms into miles of car dealerships, strip malls, megachurches and waves of similarly styled housing developments.

It had been a Republican county. However, last year, long-held Republican Iowa House districts in Des Moines western suburbs fell to Democrats.

It was the culmination of two decades of shifting educational attainment with political implications.

Since 2000, the number of Iowans with at least a college degree in urban and suburban areas grew by twice the rate of rural areas, according to U.S. Census data and an Iowa State University study.

Last year, a third of urban and suburban Iowans had a college diploma, up from 25% at the dawn of the metropolitan boom in 2000. Rural Iowans had inched up to just 20% from 16% during that period.

The more that occurs, the more you get voter participation leaning toward Democratic outcomes than has historically been in the past, Swenson said, noting the higher likelihood of college-educated voters to lean Democratic.

Since 2016 alone, registered Democrats in Dallas County have increased 15%, to Republicans 2%. Republicans still outnumber Democrats in the county, but independent voters have leaped by 20% and for the first time outnumber Republicans.

There is now a third front, Gronstal said. We can fight in those toss-up rural areas, hold our urban base, but now compete in those quintessentially suburban districts.

Though Trumps return to the ballot in 2020 shakes up the calculus, his approval in Iowa has remained around 45% or lower. A sub-50 rating is typically problematic for an incumbent.

Another warning for Trump, GOP operative Stineman noted, is The Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Polls November finding that only 76% of self-identified Republicans said they would definitely vote to re-elect him next year.

With no challenger and 10 months until the election, a lot can change.

Still, thats one in four of your family thats not locked down, Stineman said.

There are also signs Iowa Democrats have shaken some of the apathy that helped Trump and hobbled Clinton in Iowa in 2016.

Democratic turnout in 2018 leaped from the previous midterm in 2014 from 57% to 68%, according to the Iowa Secretary of State. Republican turnout, which is typically higher, also rose, but by a smaller margin.

Overall turnout in Iowa, as in more reliably Democratic-voting presidential states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, was down in 2016, due mostly to a downturn in Democratic participation.

The trend was down, across the board, said Ann Selzer, who has conducted The Des Moines Registers Iowa Poll for more than 25 years. So it doesnt take much to create a Democratic victory in these upper Midwestern states.

I think the success in the midterms kind of made people on the Democratic side believe that we can do it, Selzer said.

Perhaps, but Trump has his believers, too.

Read more:
Iowa swung fiercely to Trump. Will it swing back in 2020? - The Associated Press

It wasa decade of progress.

Former President Barack Obama, the nations first black president, was elected for a second term.

Protesters and professional athletes took a stand against police killings of black men.

Social media becametheplatform for calls for racial justice,sparking the launch of the Black Lives Matter social justice movement.

The 2010s were, by all means, monumental for black activism, giving many Americans hope that their voices might be heard.

It was a decade, however, that also saw theelection of President Donald Trumpwho pledged to support tougher law enforcement and limitimmigrationas well as renewed activity from thewhite nationalist movement, resultingin mass shootings and other incidents of domestic terrorism against people of color.

Civil rights activists now say more must bedone in the new decade to advance the rights of black people in the U.S. and build on the progress made since 2010.

Weseem to have taken significant steps forward, but it alsofeels like we havetaken significant steps backward," said Martin Luther King III, the son of Martin Luther King Jr. The policy changes that we need have not yet been manifested."

Martin Luther King speaks in Atlanta in 1960.(Photo: AP Photo)

King said movements such as Black Lives Matter motivated young organizers across the country to protestagainst violence and systemic racism towardblack people. In many ways, thatactivism was a continuation of the work civil rights leaders started in the 1960s.But while the Black Lives Mattermessage resonated for much of thedecade,Kingsaid, not much has changed in how police officers treat people of color.

Since 2012, when George Zimmerman, a white Hispanic, shot and killed17-year-old Trayvon Martin, who was black,in Sanford, Florida, sparking activism that would become the Black Lives Matter movement, manyblack men and women continue to die at the hands ofpolice.According to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences this year, about 1 in 1,000 black men and boys in the U.S.can expect to be killed by police. That makes them 2.5 times more likely than white men and boys to die during interactions with law enforcement. Meanwhile, black women are 1.4 times more likely than white women to be killed by police.

The nation is also struggling to overcomeinjustices such as voter suppression, disparities in the education systemand housing inequalities that targetpeople of color, activists say.

A survey released earlier this year by the non-partisan Pew Research Center revealed nearly 6 in 10 Americans saidrace relations in the country were bad. And 56% said Trump maderace relationsworse.Conversely, in 2009, 41% of Americans saidrace relations had gotten better with Obama's presidency, while 22%said they had gotten worse, according to a Gallup Poll.

Martin's slayingfollowed by the acquittal of Zimmerman in 2013 marked a pivotal point for race relations in this decade.Millions were protesting across the country, demanding an end to the racial profiling of black men. Some wore hoodies to the protestssymbolizing what Martin wore the night Zimmerman shot him as the teenager walked to his father'sfiance's house from a nearby convenience store.

Protestors, Lakesha Hall, 32, of Sanford, center, and her son, Calvin Simms, 12, right, gather early for a rally for Trayvon Martin, the black teenager who was fatally shot by a neighborhood watch captain last month, at Fort Mellon Park in Sanford, Florida, on March 22, 2012.(Photo: Julie Fletcher, AP)

Soon after the shooting, Obama acknowledged that Martin's death proved theUnited Stateswas still not a post-racial society."You know, if I had a son, he'd look like Trayvon," Obama said during a news conference at the White House. "All of us as Americans are going to take this with the seriousness it deserves."

On July 13, 2013, Zimmerman was found not guilty of second-degree murder. That same day, the Black Lives Matter organization was officiallylaunched.

Patrisse Cullors, co-founder of Black Lives Matter, said the movement exposed what was already happening to black people in black communities.It also inspired a new generation of activists millennials and Gen Zers to fight for equality, she said.

Their efforts, however,have been challengedby a growing white supremacy movement. In 2018, there was an almost 50%increase in total white nationalist groups, jumping to 148 from 100, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center.

"The rise of white nationalism has everything to do with the backlash against the black uprising," Cullors said. "It iscritical that we situate what has happened in the last 10 years as part of a longer history of this happening."

Two years after Martin's death, the nation became divided once again when Ferguson, Missouri, police officer Darren Wilson fatally shotunarmed black teenager Michael Brown.The St. Louis suburb became the center of unrest when demonstrations, violence and looting erupted.

The crowds wanted police to stop racial profiling.Ferguson police had a history of unfairly targeting black people, but the Obama administration'sDepartment of Justice ultimately concluded that Wilson shot Brown in self-defense.

Demonstrators raise their arms and chant, "Hands up, Don't Shoot", as police clear them from the street as they protest the shooting death of Michael Brown on Aug. 17, 2014, in Ferguson, Missouri.(Photo: Joe Raedle, Getty Images)

The next five years would bring more controversial deaths of black people. Activists maintain that racism motivatedeveryincident:

Experts say some of these incidents were better documented in the 2010s because of advancements in technology.Police body cameras, dash camerasand cellphone videos from witnesses provided unprecedentedevidence for law enforcement officials, as well as the American public.

For example, a police dash cam video recorded Yanez shooting Castile during thetraffic stop. Castile's girlfriend, Diamond Reynolds, who was sitting in the passenger seat,also recorded the moments after the shooting on a Facebook Live video.Yanez was acquitted of all charges in the shooting, despite protests from the community.

Castile's mother, Valerie Castile, said she was not surprised when the jury acquitted Yanez. Castile saidshe has watched police get away with shooting black men her entire life.

With hopes of saving lives, Castile said she is working with the state of Minnesotato distribute a manual that tells drivers what to do if they are carrying a gun and get pulled over by police.

Valerie Castile, mother of Philando Castile, listens on during a press conference on Nov. 16, 2016 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Ramsey County Attorney John Choi filed charges today against St. Anthony Police Officer Jeronimo Yanez, who shot and killed Castile during a traffic stop.(Photo: Stephen Maturen, Getty Images)

There is never a reason why the police kill our black men," Castile said."But there are a hell of a lot of excuses, and we are trying to eliminate some of the excuses."

Robert Bennett, a Minneapolis-based attorney for the Castile family, said he remains hopeful that with "hard evidence" from cameras and publicawareness, morepolice will be convicted of shooting black men when appropriate.

One sign of progress was in October 2018 when Chicago police officerJason Van Dykewas convicted of second-degree murder for shooting Laquan McDonald, 17, as he walked away from police.

Police initially reported that McDonald, who was black, refused to put down a knife he was carryingand lunged at them. But when the court ordered police to release the dash cam video, it showed McDonald walking away from police when he was shot.

"It doesnt give the police as much room to wiggle," Bennett said ofthe cameras. Theres some reason to think they might be held accountable at some point."

The fight for equality also showed up in sports and entertainment this decade.

One of the most discussed events came in August 2016 when Colin Kaepernick, then the San Francisco 49ers quarterback, refusedto stand for The Star-Spangled Banner before a preseason game against the Green Bay Packers. Kaepernick said he could not show pride for a flag in a country that oppresses black people.

San Francisco 49ers' Eli Harold, Colin Kaepernick and Eric Reid kneel in protest during the playing of the national anthem before a NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi's Stadium on Oct 6, 2016.(Photo: Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports)

Critics blastedKaepernick for his stance, characterizing him as a divisive figure. In August 2016, Trump said maybe Kaepernick "should find a country that works better for him.In September 2017, Trump said NFL owners should "get that son of a bitch off the field" when any players protest during the national anthem.Kaepernick has gone unsigned since2017 and has accusedthe NFL of blackballing him because of his political statements.

Kenneth B. Nunn, professor of law at the University of Florida, said the backlashtowardKaepernick hurts the movement for equality because a black man is being punishedfor speaking out against police brutality.

"It seems to be a social message of rejection and sort of ostracizes Kaepernickand members of the Black Lives Matter movement," Nunn said. We are looking at decades of asetback for AfricanAmerican progress."

Black celebritiesalso spoke out against the Academy Awards in 2016 when, for the second year in a row,no actors of color received an acting nomination.Spike Lee, Jada Pinkett Smith and other actorsthreatened to boycott the show.

A year later, in 2017,"Moonlight" becamethe first film with an all-black cast to win the Academy Award for best picture.

Other milestones for black America this decade included Beyonce being the first black woman to headline Coachella in California in April 2018, andMeghan Markle, a mixed black and whitewoman from Los Angeles, marryingPrince Henry in the United Kingdom in May 2018.

These high-profile moments in black history, as well asracial anxiety among some white voters from having a black president for the first halfof the decade,might have contributed to Trump winning his election in 2016, Nunn said.

President Donald Trump talks with former President Barack Obama on Capitol Hill in Washington, prior to Obama's departure to Andrews Air Force Base, Maryland, on Jan. 20, 2017.(Photo: Rob Carr, AP)

Obama often defended the Black Lives Matter movement andmet with young civil rights activists at the White House in 2014.Under his administration, the Department of Justiceinvested in training and research tohelp reduce implicit bias in police departments. It also provided millions of dollarsto agencies with community policing initiatives.

In 2017, Trump's administration ended the program and announced it would instead focus on providing support forofficersfighting gangs, drugs and violent crime. Trump would later tell police they didn't have to be nice to suspects.

Trump, meanwhile, has at timesbeen labeled a racist for his comments and tweets toward Latinos, black people and Muslims during his time in office.In January 2018, the presidentreferred to Haiti andblack-majority nationsin Africaas "shithole countries" during a meeting to discuss the U.S.visa lottery.

In July,he told four minority, liberal congresswomen,known as "the Squad," togo back and help fix the totally broken and crime-infested places from which they came."Trump also drew criticism when he called a majority-black congressional district inBaltimore "a disgusting, rat and rodent-infested mess."

Not only has hemade race relationsworse, but he has done so in ways that are both explicit and subtle," Nunn said.

Despite making little progress with racial equality in the 2010s, activists say they are still optimistic.

Cullors said she hopesthe nation is seeing the last vestiges of white nationalism in the Trump era. To make more progress, young activists needto engage in politics and prepare to run for office, Cullors said.

"I think racism has to die off with structures, too," Cullors said. "We have to change these policies the systems in place, the policies that hold people back."

Castile said policymakers are more likely to listen to people sitting at the table with them compared withprotesters.

We have a long way to go because once you turn social issues into politicalissues, then you have a bunch of red tape," Castile said. "But I've got so much hope, and I spend a lot of time talking to leaders."

King said progress in the next decade will require drastic changes to law enforcement practices, including training for police, community policing and civilian review boards.He is also working to end voter suppression and encouraging more voter registration and voter education efforts.

King acknowledged that these changes likely won't happen soon. But he hopesfuture leaders will move the nation forward.

We have to believe the best is yet to come," King said.I have great hope for the generations behind me."

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End of a decade: What the 2010s, Obama, Trump and Black Lives Matter meant for Americans - USA TODAY

Former PresidentBarack Obama is spending the holidays as he usually does golfing in Hawaii. But this year, hehugged a few babies along the way.

It started Friday whenObama approacheda family and asked if he could hold their 3-month-old daughter, Riley Lewis. In a video that has since racked up over 1 million views on Twitter, Obama is heard saying,"Who is this cutie pie?"

The former president thenholds Riley in his arms and gives her a kiss.

"I was just in awe," Riley's mom Tiffany Lewis told Good Morning America. "I look back at the pictures and I look so crazy because my mouth was just wide open in shock."

Andrea Jones,Riley's aunt, posted an additional photo of the president with Riley and her parents.

"Im convinced President Obama has baby fever,"Jones said.

Jones just might be right because as if that moment wasn't sweet enough, Obama managed to find another baby to hold on Sunday.Krystle Ilar told HuffPostshe and some friends were at Mid-Pacific Country Club in Lanikai when they got word that Obama was on the 18th hole.

They made their way to where he was and to Ilar's surprise, he asked to hold her 2-month-old son, Levi.

In a video shared on Instagram, Obama is seen holding Levi and cooing at the baby. He says hello and even shakes his hand.

"As I watched him hold my son, my heart overflowed. He was so genuine and so gentle with my son, Levi," Ilar told HuffPost. "Its an amazing experience and one that well all cherish for a lifetime!"

"When Levi gets older, my husband and I will share with him about how he got to be held and loved on by the 44th president,"she added.

Obama's trip isn't over just yet, so there may be more baby-holding moments before the year ends.Fingers crossed.

More from Aol.com: Dad shocked by daughter's reaction to 'worst Christmas gift ever' White Sands monument re-designated as US national park Boy kidnapped from hospital in 1964 found through ancestry sites

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Barack Obama is spending the holidays golfing and holding babies - AOL

KEY POINTS

Michelle Obama talked about one of the many Christmases she has celebrated with her husband, Barack Obama.

In her memoir Becoming, the ex-FLOTUS revealed that she, Barack, and their then-18-month-old daughter Malia, were scheduled to fly to Hawaii to celebrate the holidays. While there, they were also supposed to meet with Baracks grandmother, Toot.

Their tickets have already been booked, and they were all set on going but politics got in the way. The ex-POTUS called his wife and told her that the Illinois senate was hung up on a marathon debate amid a major crime bill.

The former president of the United States told Michelle that they would have to postpone their trip to Hawaii. The former first lady wasnt pleased with what her husband told her, but she was more than understanding of the situation.

After all, the trip will only be postponed and not canceled.

I didn't want Toot spending Christmas alone, and beyond that Barak and I needed the downtime. The trip to Hawaii, I was figuring, would separate both of us from our work and give us a chance to simply breathe, she said.

Barack, Michelle, and Malia flew to Hawaii two days before Christmas, and they spent the holidays at Toots apartment. But while opening their presents and chatting, Barack received another phone call from Illinois informing him that the senate was going back to session.

With a sinking heart I watched as Barack jumped into action, rebooking out flights to leave the following day pulling the plug on our vacation, she said.

Meanwhile, the ex-FLOTUS also talked about another devastating incident in her life years ago. After the Sandy Hook shooting in 2012 in Newtown, Connecticut, Michelle clung to her daughters.

Her husband, Barack, spoke at a prayer vigil being held for the victims two days after the tragic incident. But the former first lady said that she couldnt bring herself to join her husband.

Michelle was so shaken by the shooting that she felt she had no strength left. Instead of trying to comfort other mourning parents, she simply clung to Malia and Sasha with fear and love intertwined.

Barack and Michelle Obama greeted each other on Valentine's Day on Twitter. Pictured: Barack and Michelle kiss as they wait for President-elect Donald Trump and wife Melania at the White House before the inauguration on Jan. 20, 2017 in Washington, D.C. Photo: Getty Images/Kevin Dietsch

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Michelle Obama Heartbreakingly Postponed Christmas Plans; Ex-FLOTUS Husband Barack Obama To Blame - International Business Times

Thursdays debate, like the collisions that preceded it, pitted a leftist lane led by Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren against a moderate lane led by former Vice President Joe Biden and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. The former believe in big, structural change, going to battle with billionaires, and eliminating private insurance; the latter believe in incremental progress, courting the wealthy, and building on Obamacare. The seemingly massive differences between these two factions represent a fierce ideological fight for the future of the Democratic Party.

The rhetoric of this clash is obscuring a deeper truth: All the lead contenders are running on the most progressive agendas to ever dominate a Democratic primary. Indeed, by the standards of the Democratic Party in 2008, the moderates look like leftists. As a result, if Biden or Buttigieg actually win the nomination, they will be running on the most progressive platform of any Democratic nominee in history.

We reviewed the details of the policy positions held by the four top 2020 Democratic contenders (Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren) across a handful of key issue areas. When you compare the ideas of the leftists and the moderates against Obamas 2008 campaign positions, the overall shift toward the left is undeniable. The point here isnt to offer a comprehensive rundown of where each candidate stands on every issue, but to illustrate the way the center of gravity in the party has moved.

Health care: a consensus around insurance expansion built atop public coverage

Warren/Sanders: Implement a single-payer health care system with universal coverage, zero copays or deductibles, and government-directed pricing.

Biden/Buttigieg: Achieve at least 97 percent health care coverage via a public option open to everyone, including those with employer-sponsored insurance. Increase subsidies by tying them to Obamacares more comprehensive gold level plans and capping premiums at a maximum of 8.5 percent of income, no matter your income.

Obama 2008: Expand Medicaid to 133 percent of the poverty line, offer subsidies for private insurance up to 400 percent of the poverty line, and offer a public plan to those ineligible for employer coverage, Medicaid, or Medicare. Notably, while the 2020 candidates focus rhetorically on expanding Medicare, Obama focused rhetorically on access to private insurance.

Climate change: significant spending increases and a goal of net-zero emissions or full decarbonization by 2050

Sanders/Warren: Sanders plans to invest $16.3 trillion in federal funding over the next decade to reach 100 percent renewable energy for electricity and transportation by 2030, and complete decarbonization of the economy by 2050. Warren plans to invest $3 trillion to reach 100 percent clean energy electricity by 2035, and net-zero emissions by 2050.

Biden/Buttigieg: Invest between $1.5 and $2 trillion in federal funding over the next decade to push the US toward a 100 percent clean energy economy and hit net-zero emissions by 2050.

Obama 2008: Invest $150 billion (funded by passing the cap-and-trade bill) in clean energy research over the next decade to reduce emissions 80 percent by 2050. Notably, Obamas plan called for increasing domestic production of oil and gas in the short-term.

Immigration: a liberalization in both laws and rhetoric

Sanders/Warren: Decriminalize crossing the border, expand the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, reshape ICE and CBP, increase the number of refugees the US admits to 175,000 annually (Warren), repeal 1996 immigration laws (Sanders), and support all Biden policies below.

Biden: Reverse Trump administrations toughest anti-immigrant policies, increase the number of refugees the US admits to 125,000 annually, reinstate DACA, and provide a path to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants currently living in the US.

Obama 2008: Fund additional personnel, infrastructure, and technology to secure our borders, increase penalties on employers who hire undocumented immigrants, create a responsible path to citizenship for the undocumented immigrants who learn English and pay fines. Even this summary, though, doesnt quite do justice to the difference in rhetoric: Obamas plan is framed in terms of an enforcement-first approach, noting that the undocumented population is exploding and immigration raids only netted 4,600 arrests in 2007.

Note: Buttigieg hasnt yet released a full immigration plan, though his campaign plans to release one shortly.

Criminal justice: against the death penalty, private prisons, marijuana criminalization, and cash bail

Sanders/Warren: Both support all Buttigieg/Biden policies below (including marijuana legalization) as well as decriminalization of homelessness. Sanders also wants to give all incarcerated prisoners the right to vote as part of a Prisoners Bill of Rights.

Biden/Buttigieg: Eliminate mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent crimes, end the federal death penalty, abolish federal private prisons, get rid of cash bail, and either decriminalize (Biden) or legalize (Buttigieg) marijuana.

Obama 2008: While the Obama platform didnt even have a specific criminal justice platform, it did offer to expand the use of drug courts, work to ban racial profiling, and reduce racial sentencing disparities. When asked about the issue during a 2008 debate, Obama raised his hand to declare that he opposed decriminalizing marijuana. He also supported the death penalty for some crimes.

Higher education: some form of public higher ed should be free for almost everyone

Sanders/Warren: Make public colleges, universities, and trade-schools tuition and debt-free for all students.

Biden/Buttigieg: Make four-year public university tuition free for at least 80% of American families (Buttigieg) or make community colleges completely tuition free (Biden).

Obama 2008: Create a new American Opportunity Tax Credit to ensure that the first $4,000 of a college education is completely free for most Americans (in exchange for 100 hours of public service per year).

Student debt: recognizing student debt as a problem, and cancellation or repayment limits as an answer

Sanders/Warren: Sanders would cancel all student loan debt. Warren would cancel $50,000 of student loan debt for those making less than $100,000, and phases the benefit out at $250,000.

Biden/Buttigieg: Biden would reduce the student debt burden by implementing income-based payment programs that cap payments at 5 percent of discretionary income (Buttigiegs plan looks similar, but is vaguer on numbers). Buttigieg would cancel debt from predatory for-profit institutions. Both would automatically forgive all remaining debt after 20 years.

2008 Obama: No plan available.

While it is far from single-payer, universal student debt forgiveness, and a $16 trillion climate plan, the 2020 Democratic moderate agenda is anything but moderate by historical standards.

The Democratic Partys shift to the left is multicausal. Some of it reflects Obamas accomplishments: his achievements are a foundation the 2020 candidates are building on. Some of it reflects the changed realities the candidates are responding to climate change has accelerated since 2008, the student debt crisis has worsened, and Donald Trumps presidency has transformed the domestic political context, particularly on immigration. And some of it reflects the influence Sanders and a resurgent left have had on the entire Democratic Party.

Still, while the 2020 primary is being touted as an ideological battle for the future of the Democratic Party, in many ways, the future of the Democratic Party is already here.

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In 2020, Joe Biden and the moderates are well to Obamas left - Vox.com