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At some point Friday, President Trump will probably tweet something celebratory about the June jobs numbers. The number of people who are employed rose by 222,000, beating estimates, and while the unemployment rate rose, thats in part because more people are looking for work (and therefore the number of people working is smaller relative to the number looking).

More people working is certainly good news. But if Trumps tweet suggests that this months report is uniquely good news a word of warning. So far, Trumps economy looks an awful lot like that of his predecessor, Barack Obama.

No kidding, right? Its only been six months, and the U.S. economy turns a lot more slowly than that outside moments of crisis.

Like the moment at which Obama took office, when jobs numbers were continuing to fall, though at a slower pace than in 2008.

For the first few months of Trumps administration, the jobs numbers are easily better than those from Obamas first few months, because Obamas were totally horrible thanks to the Great Recession. Compared to2016, though, the gains in employment this year have been basically identical.

We can look at this another way: The average monthly change for each of the past eight years, both in total and year-to-date. The average from January to June of 2017 was 88,400 new jobs added. During that period in 2016, it was 88,200.

Trumps celebration of the jobs numbers will probably also include a mention of this line from the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report: In June, mining employment grew by 8,000. He may leave out what comes next: with most of the growth in support activities for mining. That is, the job growth hasnt been in actual mining as such.

No matter. Coal mining in particular is one place where Trumps economy looks different from Obamas: 2016 was actually worse for the industry in terms of percentage of employment change than the first months of Obamas administration, a trend that began to reverse in September.

The monthly average reflects a similar trend.

But notice the y-axis on that chart. Thats the average monthly change in thousands showing that the year-to-date average so far in 2017 has been a gain of about 180 jobs a month.

Coal mining is only a tiny part of the national economy. Much more significant is the health-care industry, also a focus of Trumps attention albeit for different reasons.

The health-care industry is adding an average of about 36,000 jobs year-to-date, a bit lower than in 2016.

Notice, though, that even in 2009, the industry was still adding employees. Its one of the few areas where growth has been consistently upward.

On Thursday, Eric Trump appeared on Fox News and suggested that the health of the economy could be seen in the number of people in line at Home Depot. (There are not many Home Depots in Manhattan, but well just go with the analogy.) In other words: Look to construction as a measure of economic success.

After being hammered during the recession, construction jobs have rebounded somewhat, to the presidents sons point. Growth in the industry is slightly ahead of where it was at this point last year.

The average monthly addition to construction jobs is on par with that of health care though thats largely a function of the huge increase from January to February.

After all, construction is a smaller part of the economy than is health care. In fact, its significantly smaller than, say, food service. And all of those industries dwarf coal mining.

Thats the context to bear in mind whenever Trump tweets about the economy. Were adding jobs, good but not at a particularly unusual pace. More people are going to work in mining, great but thats a very small part of the economic picture.

So far, six months in, the economic picture is a familiar one, that looks a lot like Obamas.

Trump probably wont tweet that.

Originally posted here:
So far the Trump economy looks a lot like the Obama economy - Washington Post

Quora Questions are part of a partnership between NewsweekandQuora, through which we'll be posting relevant and interesting answers from Quora contributors throughout the week. Read more about the partnershiphere.

Answer from Charlotte Lang:

Now that we know that Obama knew about Russian meddling in our election over a year ago, why didn't he say anything or try to stop it?To me this is the classic damned if you do, damned if you dont situation.

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But Obama made the right call here, as he usually does, and if people on both sides would stop and think a bit, theyd be able to see why.

Former President Barack Obama waves after speaking at the Global Food Innovation Summit in Milan on May 9. Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama are on a six-day vacation in Italy this week. Alessandro Garofalo/Reuters

Think about it a little bit.

Obama and Hilary are friendly, and Clinton used to work for Obama. They are both Democrats and its no secret that there is no love lost between Obama and the Republicans.

Obama gets information showing that the Russians are meddling in the elections to slant the election away from Hilary and toward Trump, and that the Trump team is possibly complicit in this.

So, let me ask you this simple question:

Do you believe for two minutes that a Democratic president who has had issues with the Republican party and is friendly with the Democratic nominee could possibly get away with announcing that the Republican party is benefiting from the actions of the Russians, a country that is our adversary, and not be accused of doing something unethical or unfair?

Look at all the hollering that took place when Comey stated that the FBI was conducting the investigation into additional emails they found on Huma Abedins server. Comey was pilloried for making it sound as though Clinton was still under criminal investigation when it turned out to be nothing. Of course, by the time Comey did affirm that it was a nothingburger, it was too late, Clinton didnt have enough time to build back the loss in support she suffered because of the announcement. To this day, people are convinced that announcement flipped the election to Trump (and I personally believe that it was a factor in her defeat).

If Obama had come out with what he knew, it would have been seen as a partisan move, and would either have been condemned by the Republicans or it would have been ignored and seen as another example of partisanship.

Obama, being a man who actually thinks things through before he decides to do anything, surely thought this out, and chose the best of two bad options. He chose to not publicly reveal it in order to maintain neutrality. He understood that whatever he did had the weight of the White House behind it, and throwing the election to either party would have disgraced the office.

Had he said anything, and Trump had lost the election, the following would have happened:

No. Obama did the right thing here. Trump is now President, it is possible that members of his team worked with the Russians, and now the investigation is going according to how it should go, by an independent prosecutor who will gather and analyze the situation, render a verdict, and a Congress controlled entirely by Republicans will have the responsibility of dealing with it.

If it turns out Trump is dirty and the Republicans do nothing, it will be clear that Republicans are party first, and the nation second, and they will suffer for that. If it turns out Trump is clean, then nobody gets hurt, and Obama will have had no hand in any conclusions reached or actions taken/not taken.

Now that we know that Obama knew about Russian meddling in our election over a year ago, why didn't he say anything or try to stop it? originally appeared on Quora - the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. You can follow Quora on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. More questions:

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Quora: Why Didn't Obama Share Russia Info? - Newsweek

John Bolton said the Syrian ceasefire deal President Donald Trump made in his meeting with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin sounded very much like deals made by former President Barack Obamas administration. He explained his skepticism Friday on Fox News to guest host Laura Ingraham.

Im very nervous about this for two reasons, he said of the ceasefire deal.

One, on the broad level, he explained, I think it was a mistake for Barack Obama to acquiesce in greater Russian presence militarily in Syria. I understand the physical reality now. But this deal goes a long way towards politically acquiescing and legitimizing that Russian presence, and I think thats a mistake, number one.

Number two, Im not at all sure that this ceasefire, he continued, assuming it holds, and thats a big assumption, doesnt mostly benefit the Assad regime. In other words, it gives them some column on this particular front, to enable them to move forward on another front.

Well Tillersons not gonna be rolled over on this either, Ingraham challenged, you think Tillerson or [the] secretary of defense is gonna go along with something they think is completely unworkable? I mean theyre pretty involved in all of this. Not so much Mattis, but certainly Tillerson was, and what he said was looks like we can build on this conversation for future progress.

What bothers me about it more than anything else, Bolton responded, it sounds exactly like the Obama administrations position.

The secretary of state then went on to say, we expect Assad to leave, well have a transition period, we havent quite worked out the details, how thats going to happen, Bolton laughed.

The Russians are never gonna acquiesce in Assad leaving, as they have not for the past six years, he explained, if it endangers their presence in Syria.

Bolton began the segment saying that the fact Trump opened the negotiations with Russian meddling means that the collusion issue is completely over. Bolton also pointed out that Putin looked Trump in the eye and lied to him about their meddling in our election, saying that this should be a lesson for the Trump administration moving ahead.

Its very significant as a learning experience, both for the president and the former head of Exxon, Bolton said, referring to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. You can have good talks with people who lie to you, it happens all the time.

Trump announced the Syrian ceasefire agreement after his meeting with Putin during the G-20 economic summit Friday. The administration indicated that Trump brought up the issue of election interference with the Russian president, but they differed on what was said. The Kremlin said the U.S. president accepted Putins denial of any meddling.

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John Bolton says Trump admin sounds 'exactly like' Obama in deal with Putin - TheBlaze.com

Picture: AP Pool / AFP / Getty Images

As many of the world's leaders sit down to talk policy and diplomacy in Hamburg this week, it presents a rather interesting opportunityfor some comparisons.

As every great democracy knows, change is inevitable - leaders cannot stay in power forever - so when the old guard leave and their replacements attend events such as this, it's rather fascinating to see how the rest of the pack reacts.

A prime example of this would be Angela Merkel's reaction to two US President's.

MrsMerkelhas been Chancellor of Germany since 2005, and has therefore worked closely with Barack Obama and is now set to work with Donald Trump.

Here are just a few comparisonsbetween Donald Trump withAngela Merkel and Barack Obama with Angela Merkel.

Here's Obama and Merkel shaking hands on his 2016 trip to Berlin

Here's Trump and Merkel shaking hands at the G20 summit

Here's Obama and Merkel strategising the G20 summit in China in 2016

Here's Trump and Merkel strategising at the G20 Summit in Hamburg this week

Here's Merkel listening to Trump at the G20

Picture: AFP/Getty Images

Here's Merkel listening to Obama

Here's Merkel with Trump with a group of other leaders.

Picture: AFP/Getty Images

Here's Merkel with Obama and another foreign leader

Here's Merkel listening to Trump

And here's Merkel listening to Obama

Here's Merkel and Trump at the White House.

Here's Obama and Merkel.

Picture: JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images

More: Angela Merkelmet Putin and did something amazing

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12 pictures that show the difference between Trump and Obama - The indy100

Jul. 7, 2017 at 11:04 AM

During last years presidential campaign, Donald Trump and his supporters predicted an economic boom if he won the White House; his critics warned of a recession. Instead, nearly six months into Trumps presidency, the U.S. economy is fine. Consumers report being more confident, but their actual spending hasnt accelerated. The stock market has surged, but key industries, including retailers and auto manufacturers, are struggling. Overall economic growth, sticking to its pattern of recent years, was slow early in the year but has picked up a bit more recently.

The latest jobs data, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, told a similar story. Employers added 222,000 jobs in June, more than in May and ahead of economists expectations. The unemployment rate ticked up but remained low at 4.4 percent. Average earnings rose a modest 4 cents an hour.

Overall, the June figures were improved from May, when decent headline numbers masked more troubling details. But neither months data did much to change the bigger picture: Years of steady job growth have succeeded in putting most Americans back to work after the Great Recession but havent yet translated into strong gains in workers paychecks. That was the overarching economic story under Barack Obama, and it remains the story under Trump.

It shouldnt be too surprising that the economy hasnt changed direction since the election. Presidents, despite their promises, have limited influence over the economy, especially in the short-term. And Trump, of course, has yet to enact the big policies on taxes, trade and other issues that are most likely to affect the economy, for good or ill.

The larger questions facing the job market have little to do with politics: How long can a record streak of job growth now at 81 straight months continue? When, if ever, will the falling unemployment rate spur faster growth in wages? And, crucially, how much more room does the job market have to improve?

On that last question, at least, Fridays report was encouraging. In recent months, a growing number of economists have suggested the U.S. could be at full employment, the point at which essentially everyone who wants a job has one. But the solid pace of job growth suggests that isnt the case. Instead, the strong job market appears to be pulling more Americans off the economys sidelines the labor force grew by 361,000 people in June. There are signs the recovery is spreading to hard-to-reach corners of the job market: The unemployment rate dropped sharply in June for teenagers, African-Americans and Hispanics, and there is anecdotal evidence that companies are becoming more willing to hire people with criminal records.

The downside of the expanding pool of workers is that it puts less pressure on employers to raise pay. Economists have repeatedly predicted that the low unemployment rate would lead to wage gains as companies compete to retain employees. But there has been little sign of that happening. Average hourly earnings in June were up 2.5 percent over the prior year. Thats ahead of inflation, which is averaging about 2 percent per year, but its not enough to reverse years of anemic wage growth and actually represents a slowdown from late 2016.

The good news from Fridays report, then, is that the recovery in the job market is spreading rather than slowing. The bad news is that many workers are still waiting on their long-delayed pay raises. They are no doubt hoping that the clock doesnt run out on the recovery before they get them.

Here are a few more observations from Fridays report:

A gradual slowdown: The government revised up its estimates of job growth in April and May by a combined 47,000 jobs. The economy has averaged 180,000 new jobs per month over the first half of 2017, down a bit from the 193,000-job average from the previous six months but essentially unchanged from the first half of 2016.

Over the somewhat longer term, the pace of job growth has slowed a bit from the torrid pace of 2014, when the economy added 250,000 new jobs per month. But some slowdown was probably inevitable as the huge pool of workers displaced by the Great Recession began to dry up. Employers have added more than 2 million jobs over the past year, a healthy pace by any measure.

A good increase in the unemployment rate: The government only considers people unemployed if they are actively searching for work. That means the unemployment rate can rise for bad reasons (because people lost jobs) but also for good ones (more people started looking for work). Junes increase fell into the latter category: The labor force grew as more people started looking for work. The so-called participation rate the share of adults either working or looking for work rose a tenth of a percentage point, partially reversing declines in April and May.

One way to overcome the muddy definition of unemployment is instead to focus on how many people are working. The rate of employment among adults ages 25 to 54 an age range chosen to avoid the effects of retiring baby boomers rose a tenth of a percentage point to 78.5 percent in June. Thats up substantially from a low point of 74.8 percent in the early days of the economic recovery, but still below the 80 percent mark when the recession began.

Retail rebound: Steep job losses in the retail sector in recent months have contributed to fears that Amazon and other online sellers are doing permanent damage to a key source of employment for less-educated workers. In June, however, retailers added 8,100 jobs, the first increase since January. (A similar small gain in April was wiped out by subsequent revisions, something that could happen again.) Still, the sector has lost 36,000 jobs so far this year.

Other industries posted mixed results in June. Manufacturing employment was essentially flat, and automakers cut jobs for the third straight month. But the mining sector, which includes oil and gas producers, continued its recent rebound after shedding jobs in 2015 and 2016. The health care industry added 59,100 jobs, continuing a long trend of strong growth.

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The Trump Job Market Looks A Lot Like The Obama Job Market - FiveThirtyEight