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Its progressives versus moderates in the race to be the Democratic candidate for New Yorks 16th Congressional district and both sides are pulling out all the stops.

In the moderate corner is 16-term incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY), who is facing the primary challenge of his career despite the endorsements of establishment figures like Hillary Clinton and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

On the progressive side is Jamaal Bowman, a 44-year-old former middle school principal with the backing of heavyweights like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

Bowman has seen a surge in progressive attention and support in recent weeks, most certainly thanks in part to the string of disastrous headlines Engel, 73, has faced since May.

In an effort to maintain that momentum, progressives are uniting in spite of wounds that are still healing in the wake of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, where moderates were able to get their candidate of choice across the finish line.

With Sanders and AOC behind him, Bowman was able to secure the support of fellow 2020 progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and AOCs fellow squad member Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.).

Former aides to Sanders and Warren have also publicly thrown their support behind Bowman.

Warren said of Bowman in her endorsement Tuesday that he was exactly the kind of person we need in Congress fighting for big, structural change.

Whether progressive endorsements will help Bowman land the plane remains to be seen, but the effort to oust Engel has united the recently-fractured wing of the Democratic party.

Two of the most prominent progressive organizations Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party announced earlier this month that they would be uniting to spend over half-a-million dollars to elect Bowman.

During the Democratic presidential primary, Justice Democrats endorsed Sanders, while WFP endorsed Warren.

While the united effort is likely an understandable concern for the powerful incumbent, he is not going down without a fight.

Engel, who serves as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has seen a wave of moderates stick their necks out for him during this election cycle.

Aside from Pelosi and Clinton, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) have all endorsed Engels reelection bid as his progressive challenger gains steam.

In Jeffries endorsement, he did not mince words about a recent controversy plaguing the embattled politician, calling Engels if I didnt have a primary, I wouldnt care remark from earlier this month inartful.

Jeffries went on to defend the House Democrat, saying that his words were weaponized against him and taken out of context.

Engel has defended the remarks since, arguing that he wanted voters to know he cared deeply about the unrest roiling the city.

In the context of running for re-election, I thought it was important for people to know where I stand, thats why I asked to speak, he said.

The Congressional Black Caucus came under fire with its endorsement of Engels re-election bid, due to the fact that Engel is white and Bowman is black.

The caucus, however, is a strong defender of seniority within its ranks, and has previously endorsed white incumbent lawmakers over black primary challengers.

Regardless, some Democratic insiders have noted to The Post that Bowman is a much better fit for the political moment as the nation experiences civil rights protests not seen since the 1960s in the wake of George Floyds death.

Hes following the Joe Crowley playbook, said one Democratic source, referring to the party stalwart who was infamously unseated by Ocasio-Cortez in 2018.

Clyburn spoke to that in his endorsement of Engel, saying at the time, During the South Carolina primary several months ago, I endorsed our partys presumptive nominee, Joe Biden for President, because of his long and distinguished record of standing with us. The same goes for Eliot Engel.

The New York Democrats primary race went from bad to worse when The Atlantic revealed how Engel was missing in action for over two months as his New Rochelle district battled the first COVID-19 outbreak in New York.

Instead, the magazine reported, he was hiding out at his Maryland home.

The vanishing act left political pundits scratching their heads and Bowman seized the moment to accuse Bronx-born Engel of having completely lost touch with the district he serves.

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Progressives scarred by 2020 divisions find common ground in ousting Engel - New York Post

ORLANDO Rep. Val DemingsValdez (Val) Venita DemingsThe Hill's Campaign Report: Candidates, lawmakers mark Juneteenth The Hill's 12:30 Report: DC moves toward Phase Two of reopening The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Trump under fire as SCOTUS, Bolton deal blows MORE (D-Fla.) is coming under intense scrutiny from progressives over her record as Orlando police chief a decade ago, posing a potential hurdle to her prospects of becoming Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump mocked for low attendance at rally Trump makes defiant return to campaign stage amid controversies Trump, Pence scrap planned outdoor speeches at Tulsa rally MORE's running mate.

Biden is facing growing pressure to pick an African American woman as his vice president following nationwide protests over the police killing of George Floyd.

And many Democrats have pointed to Demings, a second-term Florida congresswoman, as someone who could straddle the emotional divide over police reform: a former police chief who can speak personally about police brutality and systemic racism against blacks but who insulates Democrats from GOP charges they are soft-on-crime liberals.

But as Demingss star rises, some Black Lives Matter (BLM) and other progressive activists are taking aim at her tenure as Orlando's first female police chief, which spanned 2007 to 2011, and they are questioning whether someone who spent a decades-long career in law enforcement is right for this moment.

While she was chief of police, I felt like public policies and changes to address community policing should have been done. It was not, said Lawanna Gelzer, president of the National Action Networks Central Florida chapter. Weve had a problem here for years."

I will go vote, but I will not vote for her if shes on that ticket, Gelzer added. Biden needs to listen to the people of Orlando and of Florida and elsewhere not law enforcement at this time.

Similarly, some BLM activists told The Hill that Demings, or anyone else who wore a police uniform, is a non-starter for them as a vice presidential candidate.

Shes a cop. She was a top cop at an extremely brutal police department. She was a vocal supporter of brutal actions by police, said Hawk Newsome, who co-founded BLMs Greater New York chapter with his sister, congressional candidate Chivona Newsome.

We are working to abolish police. We are working to defund police, Hawk said in a phone interview. When you are a police officer, you are not black anymore. You are blue.

He then turned to his sister and asked if Biden should pick a police officer as his VP. Hell no! she screamed from across the room.

A 2015investigationby the Orlando Sentinel into the citys police department found that from 2010 to 2014 a period partially overlapping Demingss tenure officers used force 3,100 times, including kicking, pepper-spraying or shocking suspects.

And Orlando police used force more frequently on black suspects, the newspaper found, mirroring findings elsewhere in the country. Some 55 percent of use-of-force incidents involved blacks, though only 28 percent of the citys population is black. Seven of the 10 people shot to death by officers were black.

In one case highlighted by the Sentinel, Marcus Cull, a black man, was shot in the back by Officer Carlos Villaverde in2011 after being mistakenfor a robbery suspect.Cull sued Villaverde, the city of Orlando and another officer involved in 2014, alleging they violated his civil rights, but a judge ruled that Villaverde did not violate Culls constitutional rights.

Demings, 63, was not available for an interview, a spokesman said. But she has consistently defended her tenure as police chief, and she did so again during a call with reporters this week.

Addressing the Sentinel report, she pointed out she was chief of police during only a year anda half of the five-year period analyzed.

Demings also noted that Orlando police may have been more transparent than other agencies in reporting use-of-force incidents, leading to higher numbers. Additionally, she said the majority of officers who used force during her tenure were working in downtown Orlandos bar scene between 12 a.m. and 3 a.m., posing "unique challenges for officers.

We hired the brightest and the best, with the right mind and right heart to do the job in that they had the training, including de-escalation training so they would not have to go hands on, Demings said on the call.

And as protests have raged in Orlando and other cities, Demings has positioned herself as a strong advocate of the bold police reforms that House Democrats will bring to the floor next week.

As a former woman in blue, let me begin with my brothers and sisters in blue: What in the hell are you doing? Demings wrote in an op-ed in The Washington Post days after Floyds death.

The scrutiny of Demings comes as Biden himself faces pressure from the left to change his own policies on policing, in part over his involvement in drafting a 1994 crime bill widely seen as having led to a surge in the incarceration rates of African Americans.

Bidens teamisvetting a small group of potential running mates that includes four black women: Demings, Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisThe Hill's Campaign Report: Candidates, lawmakers mark Juneteenth Tulsa becomes battleground in latest Trump controversy 'The Senate could certainly use a pastor': Georgia Democrat seeks to seize 'moral moment' MORE (D-Calif.), former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who herself is grappling with police-brutality incidents in her city.

Harris is seen as the battle-tested front-runner for the nomination. But like Demings, Harriss own law enforcement background as San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general has come under focus as activists question her criminal justice record and the Golden State's disproportionate imprisonment of blacks.

Still, one alum from the Obama-Biden campaign called Demings an incredible talent and an excellent option. She connects well with everyday folks of all stripes." But the source added: The fly in the ointment may be her police record, particularly during these times.

Meanwhile, Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright said Demings's police background could be helpful overall.

Her being able to speak to a broad range of issues, and being able to relate to them through her sets of experiences, I think that matters, Seawright said. I definitely think her law enforcement background is a positive attribute, and definitely being a black woman from a place where its important not only for us to compete, but possibly win, and thats Florida.

Demings grew up poor, the youngest of seven children born to working-class parents in Jacksonville. Her father worked the orange groves; her mother was a housekeeper. Early on, she attended segregated schools. Demings frequently recounts thatat her first integrated school, her teacher picked for her first position of authority: safety patrol.

After college and a brief stint as a social worker, Demings joined the Orlando Police Department in 1984 and climbed the ranks to become police chief in 2007. Her husband, Jerry Demings, whoheld the position before her, went on to win election as sheriff of Orange County and in 2018 became the first black mayor of that county. They have three children.

Progressives have voiced concerns over the central Florida power couples close ties to law enforcement.

Not only do I think a lot of misconduct happened on her watch, I also believe that that standard went into the policing that continues today, said Corrine Daly, an organizer at Orlando Revolution, an affiliate of progressive group Our Revolution.

Its clear theres been ties between the policing and our policy, Daly said. Theres definitely some heavy handed excessive police force.

To combat some of the criticism, Demingshas highlighted her personal experience with racism and her work as a social worker dealing with broken families and broken children.

Ive been on both sides of this issue, as a social worker and as a law enforcement officer, she said on the call. As a law enforcement officer, I took my social worker mind and heart to the job, quickly realizing that we could not arrest our way out of making better, stronger communities, that we had to address some of the social ills that occurred in the first place.

But activists say Demingss latest response to police brutality is no more than lip service.

Actions speak louder than words, Gelzer, of the National Action Network, said. She has yet to pick up the phone and call and talk to use about the issues that were dealing with.

Demings first ran for Congress in 2012 but was narrowly defeated by Rep. Daniel WebsterDaniel Alan WebsterFormer cop Demings faces progressive pushback in veepstakes Overnight Energy: Biden campaign says he would revoke Keystone XL permit | EPA emails reveal talks between Trump officials, chemical group before 2017 settlement | Tensions emerge on Natural Resources panel over virtual meetings Tensions emerge on Natural Resources panel over virtual meetings MORE (R-Fla.). Four years later, after redistricting, she ran again and won, taking office shortly before Trump was sworn in.

As a backbencher, Demings kept a low profile on Capitol Hill, but she burst onto the national scene in January when Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiNadler: House Judiciary Committee will open investigation into Berman firing White House says it plans to ensure Bolton gets 'no profits' from book Democrats pan Trump, Barr over dismissal of US Attorney Geoffrey Berman MORE (D-Calif.) tapped her as one of seven House impeachment managers in the historic Senate impeachment trial of Trump.

Demings is extremely popular in the House Democratic Caucus, especially among her female colleagues. Rep. Lois FrankelLois Jane FrankelFormer cop Demings faces progressive pushback in veepstakes Gloves come off as Democrats fight for House seat in California House members race to prepare for first-ever remote votes MORE, a fellow Florida Democrat who co-chairs the Womens Caucus, has been leading a group of lawmakers whove publicly and privately lobbied the Biden campaign to choose Demings.

We need people with impeccable moral clarity who are very strong and very brave, and that really defines her, Frankel, the former mayor of West Palm Beach, said. She was a sheriff in a big municipality for years so she knows the domestic issues very well, and as a member of Homeland Security and Intelligence committees, shes got her foreign-policy chops.

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Former cop Demings faces progressive pushback in veepstakes | TheHill - The Hill

Recent protests over racial injustice and police brutality are fueling an eleventh-hour surge for Kentucky state Rep. Charles Booker as he looks to overtake Amy McGrath in the race for the Democratic Senate nomination in Kentucky.

Booker, a first-term legislator from Louisville, has largely flown under the radar since launching his bid in January to challenge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellTrade groups make lobbying push to be included in small business loan program Protesters gather at McConnell's Kentucky home: 'No justice, no sleep' Republican rift opens up over qualified immunity for police MORE (R). But he has emerged as a powerful voice as protesters have taken to the streets in Louisville and across the country after the police killing of George Floyd.

A growing number of Democrats have begun lining up behind him, believing he is better suited for the political moment than the well-funded McGrath, who rose to prominence in 2018 during her close but unsuccessful bid to unseat Rep. Andy BarrAndy BarrProgressive Booker emerges as late threat to McGrath in Kentucky primary Rep. Andy Barr's wife dies suddenly at 39 McConnell's 2014 challenger endorses Charles Booker in Senate race MORE (R-Ky.).

Charles kind of met the moment, said Mark Riddle, a Kentucky-based Democratic strategist and the president of the political nonprofit Future Majority. People seem to be for Booker right now in a way that I havent really seen them for Amy.

A recent internal poll conducted for Bookers campaign showed him trailing McGrath by 10 points ahead of the June 23 primary. While thats not an insignificant margin, a similar internal survey fielded in April showed him down by more than 50 points.

At the same time, interviews with nearly a dozen political operatives in Kentucky revealed a growing consensus that Bookers late-breaking momentum could prove fatal or at least highly damaging to McGrath.

Last week, Booker scored endorsements from two of the most prominent progressives, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersFormer Sen. Kaufman to run Biden transition team Overnight Defense: Navy won't reinstate fired captain | Dems probe use of federal officers in DC | Air Force appoints woman as top noncommissioned officer Jamaal Bowman raises M, launches 0,000 ad buy ahead of New York primary MORE (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezJamaal Bowman raises M, launches 0,000 ad buy ahead of New York primary Warren endorses Booker in Kentucky Senate primary Texas lawmaker endorses Eliot Engel MORE (D-N.Y.).

And on Tuesday, Alison Lundergan Grimes, who challenged McConnell in 2014 and remains one of Kentuckys most prominent Democrats, threw her support behind Booker. Riddle said that endorsement could help introduce Booker to voters outside of Louisville, the most Democratic part of the state and the area where thelegislator is best known.

Those endorsements flew in the face of Senate Democratic leaders, who encouraged McGrath to challenge McConnell and eagerly backed her.

McGrath's high profile and early support from national Democrats has translated into unmatched fundraising success for the former combat pilot. Since January, she has raised upward of $24 million andhas more than $19 million in cash on hand, a sum matched by no other Senate candidate.

By comparison, Booker brought in less than $800,000 in that same time frame. His most recent filings, which span from April 1 to June 3, show roughly $285,000 cash on hand. But that was before Booker began picking up momentum, and since then he has raised another $1.5 million over the past two weeks, his campaign manager, Colin Lauderdale, said.

Booker has taken advantage of the last-minute cash injection with a foray into paid television advertising. Over a two-day period last week, his campaign spent more than $400,000 on cable and broadcast ads, according to Advertising Analytics. Prior to that, he had not invested in traditional paid media.

On Wednesday, his campaign unveiled a new ad spot highlighting McGraths absence from and Bookers presence at the recent protests that erupted in Louisville after the shooting of Breonna Taylor, a black woman who was killed by police at her apartment in March.

Asked during a June 1 Democratic debate why she had not appeared at the protests, McGrath said that shewas spending time with her family an explanation featured prominently in Bookers latest ad.

I think if the McGrath campaign had a do over they probably would have been front and center on this a little bit more, lets put it that way, Matt Erwin, a Democratic strategist and former communications director for the Kentucky Democratic Party, said.

Terry Sebastian, a spokesperson for McGraths campaign, noted that she has attended several events and had conversations with local leaders about police brutality and racial injustice.

Based on these conversations, shes developed ideas on what can be done federally to start addressing police violence and systemic racism in the country including incentivizing states to require an independent investigation each and every time a police officer uses force that results in serious harm or death, banning chokeholds, training to recognize and counteract racial bias and guaranteeing every officer has a functioning body camera thats actually turned on, Sebastian said.

But several political operatives in Kentucky said that part of his recent rise also owes to lingering concerns about McGrath and the fact that Democrats in Washington lined up behind her so quickly. Some Democrats complained that other contenders, like Booker, were passed over in favor of McGrath.

Some people here were rankled because there were any number of good candidates, a Kentucky Democratic operative said. The party committee in Washington sort of handpicked her.

At the same time, some Democrats criticized early unforced errors by McGrath. In one of her first interviews after launching her campaign last year, for example, McGrath said that she would have supported Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughActing DHS Secretary: Supreme Court DACA ruling 'usurps the clear authority of executive branch' Supreme Court surprises rattle disappointed right Senate confirms McConnell protege to D.C. Circuit MOREs nomination to the Supreme Court. She reneged on that statement hours later, saying she would have opposed his confirmation.

Her allies say she remains the candidate with the best chance of taking out McConnell in November, arguing that Bookers more progressive platform and endorsements from the likes of Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez are political liabilities in a state that President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump mocked for low attendance at rally Trump suggests legislation that would jail people who burn the flag for a year Trump makes defiant return to campaign stage amid controversies MORE won by 30 points. The Senate race is rated as "likely Republican" by The Cook Political Report.

"Amy McGrath has a powerful grassroots campaign and a broad coalition of support across Kentucky that have made her the strongest candidate to defeat Mitch McConnell in November, said Stewart Boss, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has endorsed McGrath.

McGrath also has some key advantages. The presence of another liberal in the race, Marine veteran and farmer Mike Broihier, could split the progressive vote. Whats more, many voters may have already mailed in their ballots prior to Bookers recent surge.

Several county Democratic Party chairs agreed Bookers surge may be a moot point if too many Democrats have already voted. Many noted enormous expansions of early absentee ballots compared to prior years.

Crimson MacDonald, the chair of the Campbell County Democratic Party in northern Kentucky, said shes received a dozen emails asking how to change a vote.

The surge is real, and it would be enough to get him over the finish line, MacDonald said. I dont know how many people have already voted. If a majority havent, Id say the odds are in his favor. If the majority have voted, that might do him in.

If Democrats want a shot at taking down McConnell, theirstrategy will run through northern Kentucky, a string of counties in the Cincinnati suburbs that have historically voted Republican but flipped last year to deliver a victory to DemocraticGov.Andy Beshear over incumbent Matt Bevin (R).

Tom Elfers, the Democratic Party chairman in Kenton County, said Beshears victory energized local Democrats, proving that an unpopular Republican can be ousted. McGrath, as a native of Lexington, has an advantage in the area, he said.

She grew up about a mile from where Im sitting right now, Elfers said. That gives her a clear advantage over the other two, just because we know her shes a hometown girl.

Ousting McConnell in November will likely be a long shot for Democrats. McConnell is widely seen as an expert campaigner and fundraiser, and Kentucky has drifted further to the right over the years. The state hasnt elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1992.

McConnells allies are also quick to note that, despite Beshears victory, Republican candidates won every other statewide office that year.

Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist and former campaign aide to McConnell, said who wins the Democratic primary matters little to his prospects, especially given that Trump will be on the ballot in November.

Ultimately, McConnell will run against someone who is hell no on Trump or hell yes on AOC and Bernie Sanders, Jennings said. So its fine either way.

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Progressive Booker emerges as late threat to McGrath in Kentucky primary | TheHill - The Hill

Already, a split has emerged in the way progressive leaders and protesters approach systemic racism and police reform, raising broader questions about whether elected officials are in sync with what is happening on the ground. While some activists have embraced the protesters rallying cry to defund the police, many progressive leaders, including Mr. Sanders, are calibrating their approach.

Unlike during the primary season, when he often took the most leftward position, Mr. Sanders has disagreed with protesters demands to eliminate funding for police departments, staking out a careful position on police reform.

Anyone who thinks that we should abolish all police departments in America, I dont agree, Mr. Sanders told The New Yorker. In keeping with his stance when he was mayor of Burlington, Vt., he supported paying police officers more.

At the same time, progressive organizations like the Sunrise Movement, a youth-led liberal environmental group that endorsed Mr. Sanders in the primary, have aggressively pushed to defund the police, adopting the policy as one of their own. When Mr. Biden released a statement last week that took a more cautious position on police overhaul, the Sunrise Movement denounced his stance on Twitter. @JoeBiden youre hurting any chance you have at defeating Trump by taking these centrist stances, the group said. We need someone fighting with us to create bold change, not someone to maintain the status-quo #DefundPolice.

But while most progressives might not have seen this revolution coming, they are catching up.

Rahna Epting, the executive director of the progressive group MoveOn, said the protests were a time for national groups like hers to listen to the grass roots. In terms of what we do, we see the people on the streets right now, this is completely organic, she said. This is beyond any one organization or institution.

She added: Were recognizing the moment is not ours, its the peoples, and we need to flank the people right now.

The protests are not directly connected to partisan politics, even though there are some similarities between their broad demands and the revolutionary sentiment embodied by Mr. Sanderss campaign. But if there is overlap, it is not yet clear whether the energy on the ground, particularly among young progressives who supported Mr. Sanders but remain dissatisfied with Mr. Biden, will translate to enthusiasm at the ballot box in November.

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Bernie Sanders Predicted Revolution, Just Not This One - The New York Times

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Its the best of times for car insurersbut not for their stocks. That could make it a good time to buy shares of Progressive.

Stay-at-home orders have forced people to stay put, which means fewer cars on the roads, fewer accidents, and fewer claims to pay. As a result, profits are soaring for auto insurers such as Geico, State Farm, and Progressive (ticker: PGR). Times are so good, in fact, that they are giving premium rebates to policyholders.

Yet Progressives stock has risen just 1% in the past three months, to a recent $76.50, even as the S&P 500 has gained 10%. Investors apparently are concerned about what the companys earnings will look like once people start driving again, and theyre worried about longer-term issues, including the rise of autonomous vehicles.

They neednt worry: At 14 times next years expected earnings and a valuation below its historical average, Progressives stock reflects a lot of bad news. The shares underperformance has given investors an opportunity to buy a growth stock at a value price.

Americans love to drive, but the coronavirus pandemic has done the seemingly impossibleforced them off the road. Miles traveled on U.S. highways fell 19% year over year in March, and 40% in April. Less travel has meant fewer crashes, and fewer claims for Progressive to cover. The companys loss ratioclaims paid, divided by insurance premiums receivedwas almost 20 percentage points lower in April than a year earlier, falling to a historically low level, says Bill Wilt, an analyst at Gordon Haskett.

As a result, earnings estimates for Progressives current quarter have risen over the past few weeks, from roughly $1.30 a share to $1.80. But earnings are expected to fall 11% next year, to $5.45 a share, as more normal levels of driving resume. That raises an obvious question: Why pay up for earnings growth that isnt likely to last?

Other changes wrought by the coronavirus are more helpful to auto insurers. For one, the widespread launch of autonomous vehicles has been pushed back as car makers try to preserve cash. With self-driving technology costing billions of dollars to develop, the timeline for fully autonomous cars likely has been delayed by a couple of years.

We called a winter for pure autonomous driving ventures a year ago, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu tells Barrons. The technological breakthrough didnt come. These businesses have made great progress, but see the goal post of a sustainable business model moving back for every step they take forward on the tech and performance front.

If a slower shift to autonomous driving means more drivers will stay behind the wheel, a societal shift could see their ranks grow in coming years. Millennials, now the largest generation in the U.S., arent getting licensed to drive at the same clip as prior generations. About 80% of U.S. residents 24 to 44 years old have a drivers license. Twenty years ago, that figure was closer to 90%. When people hit 40 and beyond, however, the vast majority in America find they need to drive. That could mean another 20 million licensed drivers, or 10% more customers for auto insurance.

Wall Street recognizes the opportunity, at least in part. Progressive is a relatively popular stock with securities analysts, and about 55% to 60% of those covering the company rate the shares the equivalent of Buy, similar to the 55% Buy ratio for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The average analyst price target for Progressive shares is about $88, or 15% above current levels. But the opportunity could be greater than that.

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Progressive has a long history of solid business execution. The stock has returned 26% a year, on average, over the past five years. Its advance has been propelled by strong earnings growth; profits have compounded by 24% a year, on average, over that span.

Progressive has a couple of positive factors working in its favor, says Credit Suisse analyst Mike Zaremski. A lot of new business is being sold with telematics [which track driver data], or as a home and auto bundle.

These are more profitable policies than more conventional auto insurance, Zaremski says. Telematics policies are priced dynamically. For example, policyholders pay less if the tracking device shows that they dont speed or brake hard frequently, which it interprets as signs of potential recklessness. Zaremski rates Progressive stock the equivalent of Buy, with an $85 price target.

Progressive has been able to grow earnings at such an impressive pace in part because of its tight control over its combined ratio. Thats an industry term for operating costs plus insurance claims, divided by premiums. The lower the combined ratio, the more profitable the insurer. Progressive has always targeted a combined ratio of about 96% on new business, according to MKM Partners analyst Harry Fong. Once people begin to go back to work, we believe the company will begin to resume its longer-term [growth] trends, he writes. Meanwhile, reported earnings will remain elevated due to lower loss frequency.

Progressive executives didnt respond to Barrons requests for comment.

Fong expects Progressive to earn $5.20 a share next year. He rates the shares Buy, with a $90 price target, and believes they should trade for about 17 times earnings.

Progressive shares now change hands below their five-year average price/earnings multiple of 15, and the S&P 500s P/E of 20 times next years expected earnings. If investors start to believe that Progressive can grow earnings off a higher base, the multiple could return at least to its historical average. The stock could gain back some of the [recent P/E] discount, says Zaremski.

Assuming Progressive could earn as much as $6 a share in the future, and trade up to 17 times earnings, the shares could hit about $100 apiece. That would be about 30% above the recent priceproviding insurance against investor disappointment.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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Autonomous-Driving Delays and Other Reasons to Buy Progressive Stock - Barron's