As Americans face Tuesdays deadline to pay their taxes, the  Trump administration is hinting that tax reform is up soon on its  agenda, with the president predicting it will be an easier  political lift than the botched GOP attempt to replace Obamacare.
    He may be optimistic, because a key aspect of the tax overhaul    would likely hurt some of the blue-collar voters who helped    Trump win the presidency. Its known as a border adjustment    tax.  
    The provision, which is used in many other nations, wouldnt    tax goods that are exported but would tax imported products at    about 20 percent. Its goal is to encourage companies to make    their products in the United States, keeping jobs here. It    would also raise up to $1 trillion in revenue over 10 years, an    inflow that will be needed as most of the GOP tax plans being    floated in Washington propose cutting the corporate tax rate    from 35 percent to at most 20 percent.  
    But critics, including big-box retailers like Costco and    Walmart that would have to pay the tax because they import most    of their products, predict the average American family would    pay $1,700 more a year to cover the resulting increase in the    price of clothes, phones and other items on their shelves.  
    That would make life even tougher for Kailey Norris, a single    mother who makes a little less than the nations median annual    household income of    $55,775. Covering that spike would wipe out the $1,000    Norris is trying to save every year.  
      Kailey Norris carries daughter Khyla Robinson, 3, into her      preschool.    
      Kailey Norris carries daughter Khyla Robinson, 3, into her      preschool.    
    I think things are pretty tight already. I would feel that,    said Norris, a case manager at a San Francisco nonprofit who    lives in Oakland with her 3-year-old daughter. Im paying for    her school, and trying to pay for dance class, saving for her    birthdays. And now Im looking at summer camps, and theyre    really expensive.  
    I get what Trumps trying to do, Norris said. And it might    not mean much to someone who makes a lot of money. But it would    mean something to me.  
    People with a lot more money than Norris are concerned about    its cost.  
    A new    nationwide TV ad funded by the conservative billionaire    Koch brothers organization rails against it: America voted for    change, economic growth and to stop wasteful spending. But now,    some members of Congress want a new, trillion-dollar ...    consumer tax that could drive up your costs and hurt our    economy. ... Tell Congress thats not the change were asking    for.  
    Said Brent Gardner, chief government affairs officer for    Americans for Prosperity, This is a tax aimed squarely at the    Trump voter, and I hope this is one the administration will    reject.  
    But Alan    Auerbach, professor of economics and law at UC Berkeley who    is known as the father    of the border adjustment tax, dismissed the $1,700    increase as silly and outside the range of economic    projections of what the tax might do. It also doesnt account    for any tax cuts Americans may see under Trump or a stronger    dollar as a result of the border tax change.  
    It would encourage companies to make their products in    America, said Auerbach, who thinks it would also convince some    Silicon Valley companies, such as Google and Apple, to stop    basing operations in countries like Ireland, which have much    lower corporate tax burdens.  
    If it sounds odd to hear somebody from Berkeley on the same    political side as border tax supporter and Republican House    Speaker Paul Ryan, it is illustrative of how the tax has    scrambled the usual partisan formations.  
    On one side are organizations backed by the free-trade-loving    Kochs, standing shoulder to shoulder with progressive Democrats    like Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Fremont, and retailers like Walmart.  
    On the other side backing the tax are major manufacturers like    Boeing, linking arms with Ryan, Rep. Wayne Brady, R-Texas,    chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, and    Trump strategist Steve Bannon.  
    Leaning toward the border adjustment tax, but not quite fully    committed to it, is Trump. Though it would seem to fit squarely    into his America First ethos, he doesnt like calling it a    border adjustment tax. To him, thats bad branding, as he    explained on the     Fox Business Network this week.  
                                 Photo: Gabrielle Lurie, The                Chronicle                               
              (l-r) Kailey Norris goofs around with her daughter              Khyla Robinson, 3, as she puts her in the car to go              home from her pre-school in the Haight in in San              Francisco, California, on Friday, April 14, 2017.            
              (l-r) Kailey Norris goofs around with her daughter              Khyla Robinson, 3, as she puts her in the car to go              home from her pre-school in the Haight in in San              Francisco, California, on Friday, April 14, 2017.            
              (r-l) Kailey Norris picks her daughter Khyla              Robinson, 3, from her pre-school in the Haight in San              Francisco, California, on Friday, April 14, 2017.            
              (r-l) Kailey Norris picks her daughter Khyla              Robinson, 3, from her pre-school in the Haight in San              Francisco, California, on Friday, April 14, 2017.            
              Khyla Robinson, 3, goofs around in her carseat as she              gets driven by her mother Kailey Norris (not              pictured) to her pre-school in Oakland, California,              on Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Khyla Robinson, 3, goofs around in her carseat as she              gets driven by her mother Kailey Norris (not              pictured) to her pre-school in Oakland, California,              on Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris stops to pet a dog named Taz (center)              with owner John Keegan (left) as she walks from her              car to her office in the Haight district of San              Francisco, California, on Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris stops to pet a dog named Taz (center)              with owner John Keegan (left) as she walks from her              car to her office in the Haight district of San              Francisco, California, on Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris walks from her car to her office in the              Haight district of San Francisco, California, on              Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris walks from her car to her office in the              Haight district of San Francisco, California, on              Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris walks from her car to her office in the              Haight district of San Francisco, California, on              Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris walks from her car to her office in the              Haight district of San Francisco, California, on              Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris sings with her daughter Khyla Robinson              (not pictured) as she drives her to pre-school in              Oakland, California, on Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris sings with her daughter Khyla Robinson              (not pictured) as she drives her to pre-school in              Oakland, California, on Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris (left) straps her daughter Khyla              Robinson, 3, (right) into her car seat as they make              their way to pre-school in Oakland, California, on              Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Kailey Norris (left) straps her daughter Khyla              Robinson, 3, (right) into her car seat as they make              their way to pre-school in Oakland, California, on              Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Below, Kailey Norris says goodbye to her daughter              Khyla Robinson, 3, at preschool in the Haight-              Ashbury. Khyla hid in a cubby and didn't want her mom              to leave.            
              Below, Kailey Norris says goodbye to her daughter              Khyla Robinson, 3, at preschool in the Haight-              Ashbury. Khyla hid in a cubby and didn't want her mom              to leave.            
              Khyla Robinson, 3, goofs around in carseat as she              gets driven by her mother Kailey Norris (not              pictured) to her pre-school in San Francisco,              California, on Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              Khyla Robinson, 3, goofs around in carseat as she              gets driven by her mother Kailey Norris (not              pictured) to her pre-school in San Francisco,              California, on Thursday, April 13, 2017.            
              How a tax plan unites progressives, the Koch brothers              and Walmart            
    I dont like the word adjustment, because our country gets    taken advantage of, to use a nice term, by every other country    in the world, Trump said. So when I hear border adjustment,    adjustment means we lose. We lose. So I dont like the term    border adjustment.  
    But when you say a reciprocal tax  and Im not saying    thats what Im doing  but there has to be a certain    reciprocal nature to it. But when you say reciprocal tax,    nobody can get angry, Trump said. Which says more about    semantics than tax policy.  
    In California, analysts say the tax would have a mixed effect    on some of the states iconic industries. Even though the    states agriculture sector is a net exporter, a spokesman for    the California Farm Bureau said the group is neutral on the    tax.  
    Thats because while California farmers export around $25    billion worth of products annually, many also import equipment    from overseas, said Dan    Sumner, a professor of agriculture and economics who    directs the University of California Agricultural Issues    Center.  
    Sumner said farmers would be hurt if the tax triggers a trade    war with some of Californias best export markets, like Mexico    or the European Union.  
    Even though the United States has a loony corporate tax    structure, we have to do this in a smart way, Sumner said. We    dont want to create a system that takes away our big export    destinations.  
    The tech industry is divided, too. As Hewlett-Packard    Enterprise CEO Meg Whitman told CNBC earlier this year:    Everything that is in our products comes from overseas. That    supply chain has taken 30 years to set up. So when all those    components come in and are taxed, its not going to be good.    This does not create jobs. It actually lowers the number of    jobs for many, many companies.  
    But the Silicon Valley Leadership Group, a public policy and    trade organization that represents 400 top tech companies,    hasnt taken a position, and wont until it sees a more    fleshed-out version of Trumps tax plan.  
    The border adjustment tax would significantly change how the    innovation economy operates, as it has the potential of    choosing winners and losers among some of the largest    contributors to our economy, said Carl Guardino, the groups    president.  
    Khanna, who represents parts of Silicon Valley and went on    trade missions when he worked at the Commerce Department,    worried about a trade war threatening global economic    stability.  
    We shouldnt be the ones throwing bombs at a financial global    stability that we stand to benefit the most from as a country,    Khanna said. We would pay more as consumers. More for our    laptops. More for clothes. Its really a tax on the middle    class.  
    Politically, Khanna didnt understand why Trump would support    it.  
    Its going to hurt many of the folks who voted for him,    Khanna said, And thats why its very, very surprising that    hes pushing this.  
    If prices for imported toys and clothes would rise, Norris    doesnt know whether she would buy from local stores. Shed    like to, but theyre usually a lot more expensive.  
    My concern is that people who can afford it are still going to    pay whatever the new price is, she said. But thats not going    to work for the rest of us who are on a budget.  
    Joe Garofoli is The San Francisco Chronicles senior    political writer. Email: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com    Twitter: @joegarofoli  
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How a tax plan unites progressives, the Koch brothers and Walmart - San Francisco Chronicle