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But in the wake of Ohio voters swatting away a recent Republican effort to make it much harder to amend the state constitution and build a roadblock in front of an effort to enshrine abortion rights protections into the state constitution this November theres been a bit of buzz about the reemergence of Ohio as a key presidential battleground.

Dont bet on it.

For starters, ballot issues are not partisan elections, and keep in mind Democratic issue positions can be more popular than Democratic candidates. That was very likely the case in the Aug. 8 Issue 1 vote in Ohio, as a broad coalition of Democrats, independents, and even some Republican voters gave a big thumbs down to a Republican effort to neuter voters power to amend the states constitution.

In 2018, we saw a similar phenomenon when Missouri voters approved a minimum wage ballot issue by 25 points in the same election that they backed now-Republican Sen. Josh Hawley over then-Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill by 6 points. Just last year, Kentuckians voted with the pro-abortion rights side, declining by about 5 points to specify that the Kentucky Constitution does not contain abortion rights protections. In the same election, they reelected Republican Sen. Rand Paul by 24 points. Be careful about extrapolating trends from an off-year ballot issue vote in Ohio to next years general election.

The unpopularity of Issue 1 was seen in almost every corner of the state. Some of the counties that stood out were the 15 collar counties that touch the states three major urban counties: Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus), and Hamilton (Cincinnati). The Issue 1 vote, which saw No (the Democratic position) beat Yes (the Republican position) by 14 points, was 20 points bluer than the 6-point margin enjoyed by Republican Sen. J.D. Vance in his victory over former Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan last year. In almost all of these collar counties, the No side ran ahead of that 20-point difference. One could argue that this is a leading indicator of a blue trend in these places.

But the actual partisan trends in the collar counties have been different and much less encouraging for Democrats.

Broadly speaking, the story of the Trump era in the Industrial North has been one of eroding Democratic presidential performance. Relative to the nation, only Illinois and Minnesota were roughly as Democratic in 2020 as they were in 2012. All of the other states in the region that Barack Obama carried at least once (Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) have gotten more Republican.

The regional movement toward the GOP at the presidential level is the upside of the Trumpian realignment, as he has pulled more white voters who generally do not have a four-year college degree into the GOP coalition a vital and large bloc in many of these states.

Amid the larger, pro-Republican trends in the Industrial North, there has been some pro-Democratic movement in the regions collar counties movement that was vital in Joe Bidens efforts to reclaim some of these states in 2020. For instance, some of the still-red Milwaukee collar counties Waukesha and Ozaukee, two of the states three so-called WOW counties both saw their GOP presidential margins drop double-digits from 2012 to 2020. In Michigan, the Detroit satellites of Oakland and Washtenaw counties got bluer, and in southeast Pennsylvania, the Democratic margin in Philadelphias northwest neighbor, Montgomery County, nearly doubled. Overall, the trade-offs were still good for Trump in this region, but his erosion from Mitt Romneys performance in some key suburban places contributed to his narrow losses in the old Blue Wall in 2020.

In Ohio, however, its much harder to find examples of Democratic growth in these kinds of suburban/exurban collar counties: 12 of the 15 that touch Cuyahoga, Franklin or Hamilton got redder from 2012 to 2020. The sole exceptions were Delaware, north of Columbus, and Warren and Butler, north of Cincinnati. Delaware has by far the highest four-year college attainment of any county in Ohio but it is still Republican, voting for Trump by 7 points, down from Romneys 23. Meanwhile, in the vast swaths of small town and rural Ohio, the Democrats have collapsed: The Republican presidential nominee went from winning just six of Ohios 88 counties with 70 percent or more of the vote in 2012 to exactly half of them in 2020.

The basic statewide story that helps explain both the sticky Republicanism of the collar counties as well as the big GOP movement in much of the rest of the state is that prior to the Trump realignment, Democrats stayed afloat in Ohio in large part because non-college whites there were less Republican than they were nationally.

But in 2016, according to a detailed and respected report from the liberal Center for American Progress comparing the 2012 election with 2016, non-college whites in Ohio actually became slightly more Republican than they were nationally, while the states college whites also remained more Republican than they were nationally. The AP/Fox News VoteCast exit poll found this same basic alignment in 2020. This combination a Republican stampede among non-college whites, paired with a college white group that retains a GOP lean is electorally deadly for Democrats in Ohio, particularly because the state is whiter than the nation as a whole.

If theres a silver lining for Democrats in these otherwise troubling trendlines, Issue 1 did provide a template for what a future Democratic victory in Ohio might look like, with the suburban/exurban collar counties either voting Democratic or at least not giving the GOP the landslide margins to which they have become accustomed.

That could matter a great deal in the 2024 battle for control of the Senate. Democratic incumbent Sherrod Browns reelection bid likely depends on finding some new votes in these places, as it seems reasonable to expect that he will continue to lose ground in rapidly reddening eastern Ohio in a presidential year. One telling sign is that even though No won by 14 points in 2023, and Brown won by 7 in his 2018 reelection, Browns margin was better than Nos in much of the region, including in Mahoning and Trumbull counties, home to the post-industrial cities of Youngstown and Warren, respectively, and poster children for the Trump realignment. This perhaps suggests that the continued erosion for Democrats in these one-time cobalt blue counties will only continue.

If Ohio did in fact vote Democratic for president in 2024, it would likely be as part of much wider improvement for the party across the region, such that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would be voting Democratic by several points apiece and the Democrats would likely be winning the presidency easily. Thats possible, of course, but the odds are against it.

Ohio is, rightly, going to remain a focus in 2023, with a looming vote coming on abortion rights in November. But regardless of what happens in that ballot measure, the Trump realignment ended at least for now the states defining role as a presidential bellwether.

See more here:
No, Ohio Is Not in Play - POLITICO - POLITICO

On Thursday, July 27, I reintroduced legislation that would clarify that the authorities of the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention (CDC), which were unlawfully expanded and abused during the COVID-19 pandemic, are limited to those expressly authorized by Congress.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, government lockdowns triggered widespread layoffs and caused many businesses to close for good. But rather than simply allowing Americans to go back to work, the CDC issued a federal rent control order.

This experience illustrates one of the most important lessons of the COVID-19 public health emergency: power-hungry bureaucrats will use any excuse they can find to expand their powers. Congress shouldnt let that happen, and my bill will prevent future overreach like we saw far too often during the pandemic.

The legislation is co-sponsored by Senators Mike Lee (R-UT) and Mike Braun (R-IN).

Specifically, the Limiting CDC to Disease Control Act would clarify that Section 361(a) of the Public Health Service Act only authorizes the agency to issue and enforce regulations addressing isolation and quarantine of infected individuals (subject to certain restrictions) and inspection, fumigation, disinfection, sanitation, pest extermination and destruction of infected animals or articles.

From the Rand Paul Newsletter

Excerpt from:
Dr. Rand Paul reintroduces legislation to prevent CDC overreach - Pmg-ky1.com

The narrative following Bronny James cardiac arrest during a USC basketball practice in late July was as predictable as it was mind-numbing. Anti-vaxxers came out in full throat, quick to blame the seemingly healthy young adults misfortune on the vaccine. Its easy to find a COVID conspiracy for all of societys ills, and its gotten so lazy that one can readily identify, and then avoid, wading into conversation with Dr. Mantis Stockton.

However, there are performance artists among us who just see things so idiotically, so completely wrong that engaging with them is unavoidable. Out of the most morbid bit of curiosity, you have to look, knowing full well that it will not only leave you speechless, but also severely dumber.

I dont believe LeBron or his family took the vaccine, wrote a silly man with a funny haton X. I believe most elite athletes faked taking the vaxx. No way men in prime physical health injected a rushed vaccine into their bodies. I refuse to believe that. Thats my conspiracy. I dont know what happened to Bronny.

So, to paraphrase, the silly man doesnt know what happened to Bronny because he believes elite athletes faked the vaccine. Look at the big galaxy brain on this guy. Not only are anti-vaxxers wrong, but so is everybody else.

Yes, all of us, the royal us, are the dumbasses, and not the guy who wears fedoras. Perhaps this silly mans signature hat is the same one used by Matt Damon in the time-traveling epic The Adjustment Bureau, and hes 17 million steps ahead of the rest of the world because hes seen every timeline.

That, or hes just a fucking moron.

See the original post:
Britney Spears, Tommy Tuberville, Rand Paul, and more: IDIOT OF ... - Deadspin

With an assist from POLITICOs Hill team

Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and Mario Daz-Balart (R-Fla.) are co-chairs of the 18-member, all-GOP Congressional Hispanic Conference. | Getty Images

ONLY GOING TO GET STRONGER

A growing group of Latino Republicans on Capitol Hill has spent the last six months trying to send a message the other CHC is on the rise.

Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and Mario Daz-Balart (R-Fla.) are co-chairs of the 18-member, all-GOP Congressional Hispanic Conference not to be confused with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, the Democratic group that has grown into a key power center inside that party since its founding in 1976.

Now Gonzales and Daz-Balart are hoping to do the same for their group, making it a more muscular player inside the House Republican Conference.

Ready to flex: The groups membership is at an all-time high, and its influence is growing thanks to swing-district freshmen members like Reps. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.). Gonzales told Huddle in an interview that while Hispanic Republicans really havent kind of voted as a bloc or to endorse things historically, he expects that to change.

The Congressional Hispanic Conference is only going to grow, its only going to get stronger, its only going to be more vocal, Gonzales said, adding that he tells other GOP members, This group will be your greatest advocates. And clearly, it can be your greatest detractors if were not on board.

At the Smithsonian: Plans for a Latino museum within the Smithsonian Institution have been in the works for years now. But a preliminary exhibit drew the ire of Hispanic Conference members who complained that it depicted Latinos in a negative light. That exhibit prompted threats to withhold support for museum funding and a meeting last month with Smithsonian Secretary Lonnie G. Bunch III to smooth those threats over.

Were not here to tell them what to do. But I am not going to stand by while Latinos in the United States are portrayed as defectors, traitors, cowards, victims, Daz-Balart said in an interview last week. I will not allow our communities to be insulted, and neither will the other members of the Hispanic Conference.

Mayorkas impeachment: The question of impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas pits two conference priorities against one another seeing Latinos in positions of power and securing the nations southern border.

The clash has put the conferences leadership undecided both Gonzales and Daz-Balart told Huddle they want to wait and see if the impeachment inquiry advances before they say if theyll support it. (Though GOP leaders remain short of the votes to impeach Mayorkas, House conservatives continue to pursue it.)

Ill cross that bridge when I get there, Gonzales said.

Future plans: More broadly, Gonzales said, the Hispanic Conference is aiming to think and act more strategically, using its leverage inside the GOPs four-seat majority to advance its aims and potentially add to Speaker Kevin McCarthys headaches. That played out earlier this year during debate on a GOP border security bill, where Gonzales won concessions on asylum language.

While past fights along these lines were led by self-minded individuals, he added, I think youre gonna see us being more organized.

In the campaign realm, Gonzales has been working with the conservative Hispanic Leadership Trust, a political action committee, to fundraise for Latino candidates and lawmakers. Outside groups, he said, are going to help Hispanic Republicans win races and stay in office and keep the conferences clout on the rise.

I am 100 percent committed to doing that, said Gonzalez.

GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Aug. 7, where college football conferences are a mess but we got you covered on the politics front.

MCCONNELL FANCY FARM VISIT

Just a couple weeks after a health episode sparked alarm among his fellow Senate Republicans, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell delivered about five minutes of remarks to an, at times, hostile crowd at the annual Fancy Farm picnic in Kentucky.

McConnell spent the bulk of his remarks on Saturday hitting incumbent Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), whos up for reelection this fall. Andy might as well be on the White House payroll, McConnell said to an audience that at times shouted retire, shame on you and lost the Senate.

McConnell shouted out Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) by name and said hes working to make sure Kentucky punches above its weight.

Speaking at an earlier breakfast event, McConnell made only a passing nod to his recent health issues.

This is my 28th Fancy Farm, and I want to assure you its not my last, the Republican leader said after entering to extended applause, according to video of the event.

VIEW FROM OLD DOMINION

Government shutdowns disproportionately affect Maryland and Virginia after all, residents of those states make up a large chunk of Washingtons federal workforce.

So lawmakers from those capital-adjacent states are always a good barometer for how sticky things are looking, shutdown wise. And surprisingly, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) isnt worried.

Sure, the House and Senate are taking highly divergent spending approaches. And yes, no appropriations bills have been signed into law. And well allow that there are only a few congressional work days before the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline. But Kaine sees a continuing resolution as the worst case scenario.

I have been concerned since the 118th Congress started about a CR risk. I knew we would figure out a way around default. I dont believe that theres going to be a legit threat of a shutdown, since we acted a few years ago to guarantee that all federal employees get paid in the event of a shutdown. Why would we lock them out of their office and tell them dont help anyone but youre still going to get paid? Kaine said.

All that being said, even the sunny Kaine is warning of an intense fall and early winter: I am worried about the negotiation around the CR. That could be complicated, although I think thats kind of a year-end thing. Im not making any big plans at Christmas time, between Christmas and New Year.

Burgess Everett

DEMOCRATS OREGON DILEMMA

Progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinners second bid for the Democratic nomination in Oregons 5th Congressional District is stirring quiet consternation among party leaders who fear a primary battle there could cost the party a shot at flipping the blue-tinged seat now held by Republican Chavez-DeRemer.

A handful of top Democrats have already lined up behind Oregon state Rep. Janelle Bynum, whos been endorsed by the Black Caucus PAC and said in June that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries encouraged her to run (though the two talked before McLeod-Skinner entered the race).

The background: McLeod-Skinner was successful last year in her primary bid to unseat seven-term centrist Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.). But McLeod-Skinner lost to Chavez-DeRemer by two percentage points after a campaign where Republicans relentlessly painted the Democrat as too liberal on crime and other issues.

Democrats see the district, which President Joe Biden won by almost nine percentage points in 2020, as a top pickup opportunity in their broader quest to claw back their majority next year. Already, some in the party are weighing in to boost Bynum and implicitly discourage McLeod-Skinner from continuing her campaign.

Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), the chair of the Black Caucus PAC, said he wasnt concerned about a messy primary but added that the PAC s members believe that Janelle is by far the best candidate. Back in Oregon, Bynum has the backing of Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.) a first-term lawmaker who squeaked through a three-point race last year and a former colleague in the state legislature.

Where are progressives?: Previous McLeod-Skinner backers are also staying out for now. The Progressive Caucus PAC backed her general election bid last time. But the groups co-chair, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), told POLITICO that the race hadnt come up yet in the PACs endorsement process. The McLeod-Skinner campaign, in a statement, said the primary will be decided by the voters in OR-05 and Jamie is proud to have a strong backing of grassroots supporters, early polling that revealed a 40 point lead in the primary, and the support of Kevin Easton, who dropped out of the race to endorse her.

Nicholas Wu

LUCAS INJURED ON HIS FARM

House Science Chair Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) was injured Friday while working on his ranch and admitted to a local hospital in Oklahoma City for treatment of non-life threatening injuries.

Congressman Lucas will be back on the ranch and in the district soon and expects to make a speedy recovery, his office said in a statement.

FIRST IN HUDDLE: SENATE GOP HITS BIDEN

Senate Republicans are out with a new video, narrated by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), hitting the Biden White House and pledging to get the country back on track. Watch that video here.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, running for the Republican nomination to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin, wished the U.S. Coast Guard a happy birthdaywith a photo of a Turkish Coast Guard boat.

A (bearded) Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) took a float down the Trinity River.

Michigan Democratic state senator Mallory McMorrow, who went viral defending herself last year against unfounded attacks of being a groomer, is endorsing Rep. Elissa Slotkin for Senate.

QUICK LINKS

Comity crumbles on Congress Covid committee, per Alice Miranda Ollstein

The Pelosi Factor: Trumps longtime antagonist played an essential role in his historic indictment, by New York Magazines Ankush Khardori

Congress has paid major campaign cash to score ads in Chinese foreign agent newspaper, by the Washington Examiners Gabe Kaminsky

TRANSITIONS

Got a new gig on the Hill? Leaving for something else? Let us know!

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House is out.

The Senate is out.

AROUND THE HILL

*crickets*

Your Huddle hosts apologize for Fridays Trivia email address it was incorrect and we have the proper email listed at the end of this section. As always, thank you for playing!

FRIDAYS ANSWER: Corey Ensslin correctly answered that Abraham Lincoln was the presidential candidate who won the popular vote but eked out the smallest plurality of voters.

TODAYS QUESTION: In what year and why did the Secret Service begin protecting the president?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [emailprotected].

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Daniella and Anthony on X at @DaniellaMicaela and @AnthonyAdragna.

Original post:
How Latino Republicans are building their clout - POLITICO

Nowadays, it's rare that anything of significance in the U.S. Senate passes on abipartisan basis never mind by a 94-4 vote.It's especially rare that anything having to do with the World Trade Center Health Program gets that kind of support.So, the Senate's near-unanimousbacking ofan amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that would add $676 million to the health program iscertainly worthapplauding.

The health program provides assistance to more than124,000 first responders and other survivors who have been sickened or still could get sickdue to the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. The amendmentimportantly helps to address loomingmonetary shortfalls, whileprovidingfunds to allow all first responders at the Pentagon and Shanksville, Pennsylvania, some of whom previously were omitted,to join.

The four Republicans who voted against the amendment Sens. Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Markwayne Mullin and Tommy Tuberville all promiseyear after yearto "Never forget." And yet,they shamefully did.

For the amendment's many supporters, there's more to do.Come September, the House and Senate will have to reconciletheir versionsof the contentious defense funding bill;hopefully, the WTC amendment will survive. But even if successful, that is still atemporary fix, justanother smallpiece of a still-unfinished puzzle.

The thousands who depend upon the health programare still waiting for Congress to make it fully funded, so that it no longer depends on temporary influxes of money to keep it whole.Efforts failed late last year to fix the funding formula to avoidgaps leftby inflation and, sadly, a higher number of participants than anticipated. Since then, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, along with Rep. Andrew Garbarino,have done what they could, piece by piece, to keep the program going, to buy time.

But time is what our first responders and other survivorsdon't have. And as more time passes, it becomes easier to forget. To forget the acrid stench,that mix of jet fuel and burning steel, concrete and plastic. To forgetthe toxic smoke and soot and debristhat filled the lungs of the residents andworkers running from the burning buildings and the first responders who ran into the fire. To forget the thousands who spent months at Ground Zeroand since became sick and died.

Advocates notethat they're now working with some congressional staffers who were infants or not even born when the attacks occurred. And as more of our 9/11 first responders get sick and die, the fight for those who are left will become more difficult.

The political battles have gone on too long. Come Sept. 11, the federal lawmakers who again will proclaim "Never Forget" should make the needed fixes and end the fight for good.

MEMBERS OF THE EDITORIAL BOARDare experienced journalists who offer reasonedopinions, based on facts, to encourage informed debate about the issues facing our community.

By The Editorial Board

Members of the editorial boardare experienced journalists who offer reasoned opinions, based on facts, to encourage informed debate about the issues facing our community.

More:
Congress should fix the 9/11 health fund for good - Newsday