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By Stuart Rothenberg Posted at 2:47 p.m. on Feb. 23

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

While the economy is a decisive topic in many presidential elections, national security looks increasingly likely to become a top issue in next years contest. And if that happens, it could dramatically affect both the direction of the race for the Republican nomination and the partys prospects in November.

While the economys slow recovery hasnt yet produced solid wage growth or the sort of good, full-time jobs that many had hoped for, President Barack Obamas job approval numbers on handling the economy have started to climb.

Americans are increasingly upbeat about the economy, and Democrats have good reason to believe economic angst wont be the albatross for them that it was during the past three elections. Thats certainly good news for the eventual Democratic ticket.

But politicians and political strategists planning on making the 2016 election about economic themes and issues may well be preparing to fight the last war.

The success of the Islamic State terror group (also known asISIL or ISIS), along with beheadings, threats aimed at the West and terrorist attacks in Europe, have damaged the president. Polls show the Islamic State is seen as a threat to the United States, and the president is getting low marks for handling that threat.

Not surprisingly, the news coverage of the Islamic State and terrorism has started to elevate national security issues, particularly for Republicans.

That development, and the likelihood that international crises whether in the Middle East or involving Vladimir Putins Russia will continue to fester creates challenges for Sen. Rand Paul.

The Kentucky Republican, who apparently is waiting until early April to announce his bid for the GOP nomination, remains an intriguing figure, if only because he isnt always in step with his own party and understands the GOP must broaden its appeal.

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U.S. Sen. Rand Paul said Friday that he is leaning toward a run for president and will likely make an announcement in his home state of Kentucky sometime in March or April.

"Anything that I do, you know I'm from Kentucky, will be in Kentucky," Paul told reporters following a speech in Louisville on Friday.

Hours later, he was in Alabama testing his pitch that the GOP's hopes depend on nominating "a different kind of Republican."

In a 30-minute speech at an Alabama Republican Party gala, Paul mixed conservative orthodoxy with positions and proposals that aren't typical themes of GOP gatherings.

"Your government has gotten so out of control that often we aren't in charge," he said. "The executive branch has become this monster with tentacles that reach into every aspect of your lives, and no one can stop it."

He called for steep cuts in taxes and spending, sidestepping details. He celebrated his role in a partial government shutdown in October 2013. "In Washington, everybody was clamoring, everybody was worrying," the senator said. "I went back home to Kentucky, and you know what they said? 'Why the hell did you open it back up?'"

Paul alluded to his repeated calls for sentencing reforms, though he didn't go into details, and told the overwhelmingly white audience that Republicans must reach more non-white voters if they want to reclaim the White House in 2016.

He also worked in blistering critiques of President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, a potential 2016 Democratic nominee to succeed Obama.

Paul seeks to distinguish himself from a crowded Republican field with a delicate balancing act. He wants to maintain the loyal following that his father, former Rep. Ron Paul, enjoyed from libertarian-leaning Republicans in his presidential bids. But the younger Paul also wants to attract traditional Republicans, including cultural conservatives and business-minded conservatives who were wary of his father.

Then there's his push to expand the GOP's reach.

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