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How Rand Paul is playing the GOP base, and what it means …

By Paul Waldman October 24 at 12:08 PM

Anyone who remembers the 2012 GOP presidential primaries knows that the 2016 contest will involve a lot of arguing about whos the most conservative candidate. Any contender who has strayed from party orthodoxy on anything will have to undergo a sustained campaign of grovelling and humiliation to prove to Tea Partiers, religious conservatives, and everybody else that he will be faithful and true forevermore. This process leaves its participants battered and bruised, diminished in the eyes of general election voters.

But what if placating the right isnt as hard as it appears? That question is right now being contemplated by Rand Paul, who is running for the White House harder than anybody.

Paul has now given a speech outlining his foreign policy vision (which every candidate is supposed to have). The speech shows just how Paul is navigating the tension between the two competing incentives that will define his candidacy. On one hand, he needs to reassure Republican voters that hes conservative enough for them, but on the other hand, he also very much wants to be the different kind of Republican who will continue to receive glowing media coverage and prove appealing to moderate general election voters.

If you took out the five Reagan references and changed some words and phrases here and there, the speech Paul gave could have been delivered by Barack Obama. The difference between a Republican and a Democrat, apparently, is that the Republican says that we should always be prepared for war, but war should be a last resort, while the Democrat says that war should be a last resort, but we should always be prepared for war. Paul also added the controversial ideas that American values lead the world, and were stronger abroad when our economy is stronger at home. And also, Reagan Reagan Reagan.

The interesting thing is that, despite the similarity of Pauls ideas to those of Obama, Pauls speech showed that it probably isnt all that hard to give GOP voters what tey want on foreign policy. All it takes is a little dexterity to push the right buttons, as Paul does in this passage:

Although I support the call for defeating and destroying ISIS, I doubt that a decisive victory is possible in the short term, even with the participation of the Kurds, the Iraqi government, and other moderate Arab states.

In the end, only the people of the region can destroy ISIS. In the end, the long war will end only when civilized Islam steps up to defeat this barbaric aberration.

He takes a policy position many Republicans will disagree with, but leavens it with the mention of the long war and civilized Islam, giving a nod to the clash-of-civilizations sentiment so common on the right. Mission accomplished.

This is a marked contrast to the domestic realm, where there are many specific positions that are beyond negotiation. You have to support tax cuts, oppose Roe v. Wade, proclaim your hatred of Obamacare, want to Drill Baby Drill, and so on. Paul has stepped outside of conservative orthodoxy on a few domestic issues, such as with his criticism of mass incarceration. But thats easy to do now, since crime rates have plummeted since then, the issue has receded and base conservatives wont be angry with him for taking a contrary position. And at any rate, for some time, Paul has been slowly stepping away from the libertarian ideas on domestic issues that GOP voters would find truly objectionable, like legalizing drugs.

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How Rand Paul is playing the GOP base, and what it means ...

Rand Paul calls for restraint in U.S. military engagement

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) outlines his foreign policy stance at a dinner hosted by the Center for the National Interest on Oct. 23, 2014 in New York City. CBS News

NEW YORK -- Echoing previous warnings against intervention abroad, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is urging the United States to be cautious about using military force and pressed instead for diplomatic settlements.

"Americans want strength and leadership, but it doesn't mean that we see war as the only solution," Paul said Thursday during a dinner hosted by the Center for the National Interest in New York City.

The comments are widely considered to be the potential 2016 Republican presidential candidate's first comprehensive outline of his foreign policy views.

"Yes, we need a hammer ready, but not every civil war is a nail," Paul said. "There is a time to eliminate our enemies but there is also a time to cultivate allies."

Paul described the use of force as "an indispensible part of defending our country" but insisted it should be a last resort and only initiated through Congress.

He called Libya an example of "the wrong way to do things," criticizing President Obama and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for engaging in war without "[anticipating] the consequences."

"Today, Libya is a jihadist wonderland, a sanctuary and a safe haven for terror groups across North Africa," Paul said.

On the U.S. strategy to combat ISIS, Paul voiced his support for airstrikes against the terrorist group but rejected supplying Syrian rebel groups with weapons, which he says wind up in enemy hands.

"The ultimate sad irony is that we're forced to fight against the very weapons we send the Syrian rebels," he said. "ISIS is stronger because of our weapons."

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Rand Paul calls for restraint in U.S. military engagement

Rand Paul spells out foreign policy

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

(CNN) -- For the first time since facing an onslaught of criticism this year over his foreign policy views, Sen. Rand Paul spelled out his national security principles Thursday in a comprehensive speech.

The Kentucky Republican, who's aggressively laying groundwork for a potential presidential campaign, sought to paint himself as a champion of "conservative realism," a doctrine that skates between the hawkish and dovish ends of the foreign policy spectrum.

"Yes, we need a hammer ready, but not every civil war is a nail," he said in New York at the Center for the National Interest, a think-tank founded by former President Richard Nixon.

"We need a foreign policy that recognized our limits, preserves our might and a common sense conservative realism of strength and action," he added.

Rand Paul: Washington's 'barnacled enablers' push for constant war

Paul attempted to address critics that characterize his views as isolationist and was aiming to approach his speech Thursday from the perspective of a major, would-be U.S. leader, rather than a lawmaker, a spokesman told CNN before the speech.

He sketched out how and when he would advocate for the use of force, saying he would only do so if he felt the United States or its interests were threatened. He said he supported the response to al Qaeda after 9/11, for example, but disagrees with the continued U.S. presence in Afghanistan.

Rand Paul takes veiled swipe at Ted Cruz

"It's hard to understand our current objective. Stalemate and perpetual policing seems to be our mission now in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria," he said. " A precondition for the use of force must be a clear end and a goal."

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Rand Paul spells out foreign policy

Paul straddles foreign policy divide

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

(CNN) -- For the first time since facing an onslaught of criticism this year over his foreign policy views, Sen. Rand Paul spelled out his national security principles Thursday in a comprehensive speech.

The Kentucky Republican, who's aggressively laying groundwork for a potential presidential campaign, sought to paint himself as a champion of "conservative realism," a doctrine that skates between the hawkish and dovish ends of the foreign policy spectrum.

"Yes, we need a hammer ready, but not every civil war is a nail," he said in New York at the Center for the National Interest, a think-tank founded by former President Richard Nixon.

"We need a foreign policy that recognized our limits, preserves our might and a common sense conservative realism of strength and action," he added.

Rand Paul: Washington's 'barnacled enablers' push for constant war

Paul attempted to address critics that characterize his views as isolationist and was aiming to approach his speech Thursday from the perspective of a major, would-be U.S. leader, rather than a lawmaker, a spokesman told CNN before the speech.

He sketched out how and when he would advocate for the use of force, saying he would only do so if he felt the United States or its interests were threatened. He said he supported the response to al Qaeda after 9/11, for example, but disagrees with the continued U.S. presence in Afghanistan.

Rand Paul takes veiled swipe at Ted Cruz

"It's hard to understand our current objective. Stalemate and perpetual policing seems to be our mission now in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria," he said. " A precondition for the use of force must be a clear end and a goal."

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Paul straddles foreign policy divide

Sen. Paul lays out foreign policy vision in New York speech

Published October 23, 2014

Oct. 22, 2014: Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., speaks at a campaign event for Republican businessman Rod Blum, who is running against Democratic state lawmaker Pat Murphy in the 1st Congressional District.(AP)

NEW YORK Charging that "America cannot disengage from the world," Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul on Thursday confronted critics who brand him an isolationist as he endorsed an American foreign policy that embraces war with limits.

The libertarian-leaning Republican is eyeing a 2016 presidential bid despite skepticism from GOP leaders over his worldview. Paul on Thursday described military action as necessary under certain conditions.

"America should and will fight wars when the consequences intended and unintended are worth the sacrifice," he said in a 20-minute speech shortly before accepting an award from the Center for the National Interest, a think tank founded by former President Richard Nixon. "America shouldn't fight wars where the best outcome is stalemate. America shouldn't fight wars when there is no plan for victory."

Paul has drawn sharp criticism from within his own party for favoring a smaller American footprint on the international stage. The first-term Kentucky senator has called for the end of all foreign aid and closing some U.S. military bases abroad.

Similar positions helped sink the presidential ambitions of his father, former Texas Rep. Ron Paul. That's a fate the younger Paul is working hard to avoid.

Polling suggests that a war-weary American public might respond well to Paul's reframing, even if his positions concern some of the Republican Party's most powerful donors and opinion leaders. New York Rep. Peter King has warned that a Paul presidency would be "disastrous" for the nation's interests and likened his views to the Republican Party's isolationist wing from the 1930s.

Paul earned a much warmer reception while facing a friendly audience Thursday night.

"I think I just heard Ronald Reagan speaking," said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform. "We just heard tonight a great deal of common sense."

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Sen. Paul lays out foreign policy vision in New York speech