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Here are five takeaways from a key primary night in Florida and New York:

It would have been easy to write Nebraska off as a fluke, after Democrats ran better than expected in a House race there last month. But then came Minnesota, where Democrats again beat expectations. And then, in New York on Tuesday, the dam broke.

Well, shit, one Republican strategist texted late Tuesday, as results from a Hudson Valley special election filtered in.

It would have been a victory for Democrats if theyd even kept it close. Instead, Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro in a district that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020, but that would have appeared to favor Republicans in a normal midterm climate.

Overall, on the last major primary night of the year, the winds appeared to be shifting in Democrats favor.

It can be tempting to read too much into special elections. Theyre not always predictive of results in the fall, and Republicans this year have overperformed in some places, too. In June, the GOP won a South Texas House seat that had been held by a Democrat.

But that was before Roe shook the political landscape. Ever since, its been nothing but one sign after another that Democrats while still widely expected to lose the House in November might not be in for the all-out drubbing once predicted.

The New York race to succeed Democrat Antonio Delgado in a New York House district is likely a better indicator than the House races in Minnesota or Nebraska. For one thing, its the most current data we have. But more than that, its a competitive district where both parties spent real money and tested their general election messaging abortion for Democrats, the economy for Republicans. It was about as close to a November test run as were going to get.

This is a Republican versus a Democrat. Theyre not crazy. No ones off the wall, said Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic strategist based in New York. Thats why its a good test.

Democrats passed and then some.

If Pat Ryan out-and-out wins, or even comes within 5 points of beating Molinaro, all projections of a red wave are completely overblown, said New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Reinish, a former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). This race is really a canary in a coal mine.

In a midterm cycle dominated by Donald Trump, it was a House race in Florida on Tuesday that laid bare more clearly than anywhere just how much Republicans are willing to stomach in their service to the former president and his fiercest allies.

Not even a federal investigation into whether Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) had sex with a 17-year-old girl and paid her for it (Gaetz has denied any wrongdoing) was enough to dent his MAGA celebrity. Not even close.

Gaetz, a Trump favorite, beat his closest opponent by more than 40 percentage points.

With the primaries all but finished now, Trumps midterm record is not without blemishes. There was his humiliation in Georgia in May. His preferred candidates lost gubernatorial races in Idaho and Nebraska. And in New Hampshire, Trump-world failed to find any prominent Republican to run against the incumbent governor, Chris Sununu. Sununu, who called Trump fucking crazy at the roast-style Gridiron Club dinner this year, is likely to easily win re-nomination in his primary next month.

But for the most part from J.D. Vances victory in the Ohio Senate primary in May to Rep. Liz Cheneys (R-Wyo.) ouster in Wyoming last week the midterms belonged to the former president.

Gaetz was the icing on the cake.

In general, probably the former president has maybe even a better win-loss record than some people would have expected, said Mark Graul, a Republican strategist who worked on George W. Bushs 2004 campaign.

If Trump-ism is ever going to flush its way through the Republican Party, he said, the lesson of this years primaries is that its going to take more than one election cycle.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis political muscle was on full display Tuesday night, as candidates he endorsed won a handful of key state legislative races and a wave of school board seats, which were a main focus for the governor in the final weeks of the 2022 midterm.

DeSantis biggest legislative win was Republican Kiyan Michael, who is running for a Jacksonville state House seat. Michael was running against more established and better funded politicians, including a former state representative.

DeSantis did not endorse until late in the race, but his support gave Michael immediate momentum to overcome her Republican rivals. She ended up securing 47 percent of the vote in a three-way primary.

DeSantis also backed Florida Senate candidate Blaise Ingoglia and Jonathan Martin, both Republicans. The impact of the governors endorsement was felt long before Election Day because it cleared a potentially crowded field in both races.

For the final weeks of primary season, DeSantis put an outsized effort, including contributions from his personal political committee, into local school boards across the state. Its part of his broader agenda to reshape Floridas education system.

It worked. Of the 30 school board candidates that got DeSantis formal support, 21 won their election bids Tuesday night.

Florida Republicans, with DeSantis taking the lead, have poured thousands of dollars into school board races this election cycle, elevating those generally sleepy races into top midterm targets for the GOP, and putting at times surprised Democrats on underfunded defense.

Defense contractor Cory Mills boasted that he would make the media shed real tears after news accounts reported on how his company sold tear gas used on Black Lives Matters demonstrators. Mills has also questioned the legitimacy of President Joe Bidens win in 2020.

Anna Paulina Luna, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, alleged last year that a handful of her rivals were engaged in a conspiracy to kill her.

Both are poised to join the Republican caucus in Congress after winning their respective primaries for Floridas 7th and Floridas 13th congressional districts. The contests in both races were noisy, bitter and expensive.

The GOP candidates are likely to win in November because the districts were reshaped to favor Republican candidates under a controversial new congressional map championed by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Currently Republicans hold a 16-11 edge in Floridas congressional delegation. After adding one seat due to population growth, the new map is projected to give the GOP a 20-8 margin in the next session of Congress.

The result was that Republicans vying for the new seats shifted even further to the right.

It didnt work for all candidates. Laura Loomer, a far-right activist who has been kicked off social media platforms for anti-Islamic posts, came close to knocking off longtime GOP incumbent Rep. Dan Webster. But Webster buoyed by votes in his home county managed to beat her by a few thousand votes in the race for Floridas 11th congressional district. Another candidate Martin Hyde said FBI agents would have wound up in a body bag if they had searched his home like they did Mar-a-Lago. But longtime incumbent Rep. Vern Buchanan soundly thrashed Hyde in the GOP primary for Floridas 16th congressional district.

Everything we know about the overturning of Roe v. Wade is that it will likely be a major motivator for Democrats in the fall.

What abortion does not appear to be given Nikki Frieds wipeout in the Florida gubernatorial primary on Tuesday night is singularly determinative.

Fried, the state agriculture commissioner once heavily promoted as the future of the Democratic Party in the state had spent much of the primary campaign casting her opponent, Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), as at best untrustworthy on the issue. Crist, a former Republican governor of the state before morphing into an independent and, eventually, a Democrat, said during his U.S. Senate run in 2010 that he would advocate for pro-life legislative efforts.

Even days before this years primary, when asked if he was pro-life, Crist responded, Im for life, arent you? before adding, Ive been pro-choice in every single decision Ive made that affects a womens right to choose.

So, whats more important to Democrats than Roe?

Electability, it seems.

I think the litmus test question in this race is who is the candidate who can best defeat DeSantis, which is a strategic question that I think most Democratic voters are applying, said Fernand Amandi, a veteran Democratic pollster and consultant in Florida.

Crist is widely considered an extreme longshot in the general election against DeSantis, even among Democrats.

But paradoxically, while Crist needed to survive the politics of abortion to win on Tuesday, its that same thing that he will need to be competitive at all in November.

If not for Roe, Amandi said, Im not certain that the Democrat would have a chance.

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Democrats gain momentum: 5 takeaways from the last big primary night of 2022 - POLITICO

Florida voters cite high stakes of primary electon

Voters trickled into the Fort Lauderdale community center Tuesday morning to vote in the primary elections of their respective parties. (Aug. 23)(AP video: Daniel Kozin)

AP

PANAMA CITY Former state Rep. Jay Trumbull wonthe Republican primaryfor the District 2 seat of the Florida Senate in Tuesday's election.

According to the Bay County Supervisor of Elections, Trumbull won ina landslidewith 79% of the voteagainstAir Force veteran and Destin local Regina Piazza, who received 21% of the vote.

Trumbull will now face sole Democratic candidate Carolynn Zoniain the Nov. 8 general election to represent District 2 which consists of Bay, Holmes, Jackson, Walton, Washington countiesand partsof Okaloosa County.

All 2022 primary election candidates: The 2022 primary elections in Bay County are Tuesday. Here's who is on the ballot

More election coverage: Two Bay County residents to battle for state House District 6 seat. What are their goals?

Live: Bay County Election results 2022

The seatwas formerly held by George Gainer, a former Bay County Commissioner and Panama City businessman, who announced his retirement June 6.

Trumbull, who representedDistrict 6 in the Florida House,announced his campaign for the District 2 state Senate seat June 7, saying he would be fighting for "the small businesses and working families of Florida."

"Our Panhandle values of faith, family, and freedom are the key to Florida's present economic boom. To sustain that prosperity long term, Ill fight to lower taxes, protect our environment, and fight for the lives of the unborn," Trumbull saidina press release. "I have and will continue to stand with Gov.(Ron) DeSantis to push back against the federal overreach that threatens our Constitutional rights and preserve our focus on freedom in our great State."

Trumbull added that his time and experiencein the Florida House will aid him, saying he helped to cut taxes, alleviate government burdens for small businesses, promote veteran-friendly initiatives and help Bay County with Hurricane Michael recovery.

He has received the endorsements of incoming state Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, R-Naples, and state Rep. Brad Drake, R-Marianna, as well as DeSantis.

"Jay Trumbull has been a strong ally for my agenda in the Legislature and a great champion for the people of NW Florida," DeSantis said."Senator Gainerleaves big shoes to fill, but I believe Jay will be a great Senator and I am happy to support him for Senate District 2."

The Panama City native attended Auburn University and received a bachelor'sdegree in small business management and entrepreneurship. Hestarted his political career in 2014,elected to the Florida House of Representatives for District 6 and served eight consecutive years.

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Trumbull wins Republican nomination for District 2 of Florida Senate - The News Herald

A registered Republican in Maines 1st Congressional District, I recently received a solicitation letter and survey from the Republican National Committee.

Each is an affront to truth and the American way. They are culture war documents designed to seed fear, hate and division. Each ignores Jan 6. Republicans use AR-15s in their advertising, resort to personal threats and issue calls for armed rebellion. They deliberately spread conspiracy theories to stir the pot of MAGA hatred.

There were no proposals to lift up those left behind or unheard, address affordable health care and drug prices, well-paying jobs, affordable housing, improve public education, a healthy economy, fair taxation, responsible gun control, our environment or being a responsible global citizen. The documents are designed to spread falsehoods and generate fear, division and money.

Donald Trump is an affront to decency, truth and moral order, a bully and a coward driven by personal interests, greed and power. We have witnessed the vitriol, hate and uninterrupted lies as he attacks anyone with courage to call him out.

You can paint every elected Republican who fails to hold him accountable for his actions and words or supports the big lie with the same brush, especially those now attacking the Department of Justice, the FBI and the IRS. They dishonor their country and oath of office. I cannot believe this is happening in America. Then I see former Gov. Paul LePage casting doubt over voting in our towns and cities.

Ed Moser IIIFreeport

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Letter to the editor: Republican Party campaigning on message of fear, division - Press Herald

She knew the price of defying Donald Trump but did it anyway. Liz Cheney, crushed in a primary election in Wyoming, was anointed by supporters and commentators as leader of the Republican resistance to the former US president.

But that invited a question: what resistance? Admirers of the three-term congresswoman who lost her House seat to a Trump-backed challenger warn that she could now find herself a general without an army.

In her concession speech in Jackson, Wyoming, on Tuesday, Cheney pointed out that if she had been willing to parrot Trumps election lies, she would have remained in Congress. Instead she voted to impeach him and, as vice-chair of the January 6 committee, eviscerated him on primetime TV.

Now, having transferred leftover campaign funds into a new entity, The Great Task, and hinted at a presidential run, she seems determined to embrace her status as the face of the Never Trump movement.

She set herself up to be that, to be the force that is going to stand up and fight because very few people have come forward and taken such a powerful stance, said Monika McDermott, a political science professor at Fordham University in New York.

It helps that she lost so shes able to do that. Thats what shes hoping to be.

The Great Task, however, may be an understatement of the challenge ahead. Trumps Republican critics did appear to have the wind at their backs just couple of months ago as his poll ratings sank, he was pummeled by the January 6 committee and candidates he endorsed lost primaries in Georgia and elsewhere.

But the 76-year-old managed to turn an FBI search for government secrets at his home in Florida into a public relations triumph with his base. Donations poured in and Republicans rallied. Even potential 2024 rivals such as Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, felt obliged to question the justice departments motives.

Meanwhile, Trump-favoured candidates surged in states such as Arizona, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Of the 10 House Republicans, including Cheney, who voted to impeach Trump for inciting the January 6 insurrection, only two remain up for re-election.

McDermott said: It seemed like he was fading from the public eye and a lot of people, especially Republicans, were glad about that. But his base is being riled up again. The FBI search was one source of that. The primary wins have been another.

He has bounced back. Hes rebounded quite a bit from where he was post-presidency. At this point he is the titular head of the Republican party, whether people want him to be or not.

Frank Luntz, a pollster who has advised many Republican campaigns, agreed that the primary wins are significant. He said: Trumps probably stronger with the GOP right now because of the Mar-a-Lago raid than in any time in the last six months.

Hes turned himself into a victim and that unites Republicans around him. So they [the US justice department] better have something, because he has a new life within the GOP.

Anti-Trump forces remain scattered. Some Republican senators, such as Mitt Romney of Utah, and governors, such as Larry Hogan of Maryland, remain willing to speak out. Disaffected conservatives have set up ventures such as the Lincoln Project, Principles First, the Republican Accountability Project and the Bulwark website.

Adam Kinzinger, Cheneys sole Republican colleague on the January 6 committee, created a group called Country First to recruit and back anti-Trump candidates. But Kinzinger himself is retiring.

With her storied name her father, Dick Cheney, was vice-president under George W Bush Cheney could emerge as the de facto resistance leader, touring the country and TV studios, prosecuting the case against Trump as an existential threat to democracy. Her work on the January 6 committee will continue until she relinquishes her seat in January. More televised hearings are promised.

On Wednesday she told NBC: I will be doing whatever it takes to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office.

She added that running for president is something Im thinking about and Ill make a decision in the coming months.

It would be tough. Cheney would have almost no chance of winning a primary and could expect the Republican National Committee to look for reasons to keep her off the debate stage. Few know the pitfalls better than Joe Walsh, a former congressman from Illinois who took on Trump in 2020.

Walsh said: There is no anti-Trump movement in the Republican party. I love Liz and shes a hero for what she did and God bless her but, as I realised two years ago, theres no room in that party for me. Theres no room in this party for her. She knows that. Shes got a bigger name so shell leverage it but shes got no army to lead.

So where do anti-Trump Republicans go from here?

What Liz Cheney is going to find is this is a difficult road because, if you play this road out all the way, you have to do what I do, which is temporarily be on Team Democrat, which is weird for a Tea Party guy like me.

I know Liz believes the Republican party right now is a threat to our democracy. If you believe that then you have to support people who will defeat Republicans and right now the only people who will defeat Republicans are Democrats. I think Liz is getting close to that point.

Walsh admitted that being on Team Democrat is still a strange sensation.

Its fucking bizarre. Once a week, I pinch myself and think, How the hell did I get here? I mean, Im out there trying to help Tim Ryan win in Ohio but this is where we are because my former party has become what theyve become.

I dont know what Liz will do. Again, shes a different animal because shes a Cheney and she can stay in that party and raise hell, but to what end? It cant be changed.

If Trump is the Republican nominee, Cheney could stand as an independent in a general election. But that would run the spoiler risk of peeling off anti-Trump Republicans from the Democrat, presumably Joe Biden, and inadvertently giving Trump a path to the White House.

Luntz predicted: She actually would take away more Biden votes than Trump votes.

Cheney has won the admiration of Democrats and independents but some observers detect hubris. In her concession speech, she raised eyebrows by drawing parallels with Abraham Lincoln, the president who steered the union through the civil war.

Cheney said: The great and original champion of our party, Abraham Lincoln, was defeated in elections for the Senate and the House before he won the most important election of all. Lincoln ultimately prevailed, he saved our union, and he defined our obligation as Americans for all of history.

Luntz said: Some Republicans who admire her tenacity and her convictions became annoyed that she compared herself to Abraham Lincoln. That was a big mistake. Whoever wrote that line really should be fired because instead of it being about Trump it became about her. And that did her irreparable damage.

The Cheneys have been players in Washington for half a century, from the time Dick Cheney first ran for Congress to the arrival of Liz Cheney in 2017. She rose to the same position as her father, No 3 Republican in the House, only to be ousted as punishment for her dissent.

Then, on Tuesday, after the highest turnout of any Republican primary in Wyomings 132-year history, Cheney lost to the conservative lawyer Harriet Hageman by 36 points. Trump acolytes gloated that it signified the final purge of the Bush-Cheney era, surpassed by his populist brand of America first and baseless conspiracy theories. The Never Trumpers were in retreat once more.

Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said: Liz Cheney certainly won the hearts of many Democrats and independents but her power in the Republican party doesnt hold a candle to Donald Trump.

We have to just be honest about that. Shes not a real threat to Donald Trump. She sees herself as kind of saviour but its in a party thats not really looking for a saviour.

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Liz Cheney is the leader of the anti-Trump Republican resistance where does it go now? - The Guardian US

If theres one thing Minnesota Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Jensen wants the voting public to know, its that he is super duper into making analogies between government efforts to mitigate an ongoing, catastrophic pandemic, and Nazi Germanys systematic eradication of European Jewry during the 1930s and 40s. With everything else going on in the world today, this is evidently what Jensen really, really wants to focus on. And folks? If nothing else, its certainly A Choice.

Heres the background: In April, Jensen a staunchly anti-choice, anti-urban, pro-COVID candidate spoke at a conservative mask off event, where he compared Minnesotas various pandemic responses to Hitlers rise to power in Germany. Specifically, he compared them to Kristallnacht, the infamous night of broken glass in which thousands of Jewish-owned stores, homes, and synagogues were destroyed by various Nazi party figures.

If you remember, go back to World War II. If you look at the 1930s and you look at it carefully, we could see some things happening. Little things that people chose to push aside. Its going to be okay, Jensen explained. And then the little things grew into something bigger. Then there was a night called Kristallnacht. The night of the breaking glass. Then there was the book burning, and it kept growing and growing, and a guy named Hitler kept growing in power, and World War II came about.

In a way, he concluded, I think thats why youre here today.

Now to be clear, this is not only a grotesquely offensive analogy that both cheapens and distorts the Nazis overt effort to eradicate a distinct ethno-religious group, but also, as far as comparisons go on a purely rhetorical level, its a pretty lousy one! There are tons of better analogies Jensen could have used here to describe governmental overreach! Theres the time Ronald Reagan shuttered federal mental hospitals, effectively dumping the residents onto the street; theres the time the Bush administration enacted a sweeping, warrantless domestic spying agenda in the name of national security; you get the idea. And yet, its Nazi Germanys industrialized extermination of Jews (to say nothing of communists, Roma communities, and queer people) that Jensen thinks is best suited to make his case. Hmm.

Shortly after Jensens comments were made public this month, a host of Jewish organizations condemned the remarks for, yknow, being incredibly offensive. The local Jewish Community Relations Counsel even offered to meet with Jensen to explain why.

All of which brings us to Tuesday afternoon, when Jensen took a good hard look at the many Jewish organizations telling him that hed offended them, and decided that, no, actually, he hadnt. Sorry, not sorry!

I want to speak to a little bit of a hubbub thats been in the media lately about whether or not I was insensitive in regards to the Holocaust, Jensen explained in a Facebook Watch video. I dont believe I was.

Jensen then solemnly recited theologian Martin Niemollers now clichd first they came for ... poem, like this was a 10th grade book report and not an official campaign statement, and reasoned that when I make a comparison that says that I saw government policies intruding on American freedoms incrementally, one piece at a time, and compare that to what happened in the 1930s, I think it's a legitimate comparison.

It may not strike your fancy, Jensen concluded. Thats fine. But this is how I think, and you dont get to be my thought-police person.

As far as statements go, this one is something of a mixed bag. On one hand, hes pulling a sort of Ricky Gervais/Dave Chappelle card by insisting that its your fault for being offended because hes just keeping it real. On the other hand, he did go with the gender-neutral thought-police person, so.

Ultimately, Jensens biggest misstep may be his obstinate insistence on being absolutely right, 100% of the time, no matter what. In the midst of the MAGAfication of the GOP, Im not sure if trivializing the Holocaust is, in and of itself, the sort of political suicide it once was. But I suspect there may be plenty of voters for whom this sort of stubborn sense of inflated self-importance is enough of a turn-off that whatever hole Jensen has chosen to dig for himself just became inescapably deep.

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Republican candidate for governor Scott Jensen is proud of his wildly offensive Holocaust analogy, actually - Mic