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There is an old saying in politics. Under promise on the campaign trail and then over deliver when you govern.

Its only mid-April. But House Republicans are certainly promising voters a great deal. In fact, Republicans are increasingly cocky about their chances of flipping the House back to GOP control. Many Republicans are pledging to voters a laundry list of both policy priorities and score-settling should they emerge in the majority after this falls midterms.

"Were going to (be in power) if we get the majority of the American people to put us there," boasted Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, on Fox News.

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Lets fillet Jordans statement a bit.

Democrats certainly face a host of electoral problems right now. History runs against them. The party of the president almost always loses seats in the first midterm of a presidency. The modern exceptions are 2002 (the first election after 9/11) and 1934. The moribund poll numbers of President Biden are suppressing the Democrats chances of holding onto the House. Inflation, gas prices, the economy and border security are significant issues for Democrats. Contrary to early concerns, Democrats may hold a minor edge over the GOP when it comes to redistricting. But if voters went to the polls today, GOPers would only have to flip seven seats to seize the majority.

In 2020, Democrats collected 77.5 million votes in House contests. The Republicans: 72.7 million votes. Still Republicans gained 14 seats and came within a whisker of unexpectedly winning the House. Democrats reclaimed the House in the 2018 midterms, pocketing 60.5 million voters compared to 50.8 million GOP votes and capturing 41 seats.

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But the party with the most votes doesnt always prevail when it comes to control of the House. Thats because one party may run up the scoreboard in a deeply blue or red district, winning with say 75% or 80% of the vote. By contrast, the other party may cling to a few seats in battleground districts by just a point or less.

A good example of that came in 2012. Democrats got shellacked in the 2010 midterm elections, losing the House and coughing up a staggering 63 seats. Voters returned President Obama to the White House in 2012. Democrats didnt get the House back in 2012 although they gained eight seats. But Democratic House candidates scored a narrow victory over Republican candidates. Republicans pocketed 58.2 million House votes. Democrats scored 59.6 million House votes. A 1.1 percentage point edge for the losing party.

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But the trick is to win more seats in the House, not a majority of aggregate votes. Midterm elections are "base vote" elections. Democrats benefited in 2018 because former President Trump wasnt on the ballot. Many voters cast their ballots in the Democratic column as a repudiation of the former president and GOP policies. Democrats won the House consistent with the historical, midterm election for a first-term president.

Former President Donald Trump speaking at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, in July 2021. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)

So, its easy to see why Republicans are bullish if not braggadocios about their chances in November.

An overpromise?

Maybe. The possibility that the House of Representatives may be in play in 2020 was on no ones radar two years ago overshadowed by the pandemic and the hurly-burly of the presidential race. Few astute political observers believe Democrats will hold the House majority in 2023. But they also know that controversial candidates could jeopardize the Republicans chances.

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Democrats held the House for 40 years from the mid-1950s until the historic 1994 midterms. Again, that first midterm of a new president didnt go so well for Democrats and President Bill Clinton. Republicans won the House in 1994, propelling Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., into the spotlight as House speaker. Many political analysts believed Republicans were in the best shape they had been in years as the midterms approached. Michael Barone, then of U.S. News and World Report and the main author of "The Almanac of American Politics," controversially predicted the GOP could win the House in 1994. Many other pundits and certainly Democrats scoffed at Barones soothsaying. But the voters proved Barone correct that fall.

So fast forward to present day.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in December 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

"Were going to win the majority," predicted House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., to Punchbowl News in late March. "And its not going to be a five-seat majority."

McCarthy has boldly prognosticated that his party would be in the majority for several months now. And if McCarthy is right, some Republicans will push the party to tick off a major checklist of campaign promises.

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Investigate Hunter Biden and his laptop. Check. Investigate the hamfisted withdrawal from Afghanistan. Check. Probe Justice Departments efforts to go after parents involved in school board meetings. Check. Explore the origins of COVID-19. Check. Go after Dr. Anthony Fauci. Check. Target Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for his handling of the border. Check.

"Give us the ability to fire (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., implored Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla.

Fair enough.

"And impeach Joe Biden," continued Gaetz.

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The Florida Republican wasnt done.

"Im going to nominate Donald Trump for speaker of the United States House of Representatives," added Gaetz.

In other words, there are some Republicans who demand more than others. Perhaps even bypassing McCarthy for speaker.

And what happens if a prospective House majority doesnt go as far as some GOPers would like them to?

Thats the problem facing Republicans and perhaps McCarthy specifically if he wishes to become speaker on Jan. 3, 2023.

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"If Kevin McCarthy keeps reiterating the fact that he's going to bring the team across the finish line and they're going to get the majority, then I guess he's the one who gets to claim the credit. He's the one in all of the private meetings. He gets to say, I did it and I get to be the speaker," said Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University. "Weve learned that even if you end up overpromising and underdelivering, theres not much consequence for that anymore."

So impeach President Biden?

"If someone breaks the law and the ramifications (are) impeachment, we would move toward that," said McCarthy on Fox. "We will take the facts to wherever the facts go."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, alongside other Senate Republicans, speaking to members of the media on Capitol Hill in August 2021. (AP Photo/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades, File)

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., believes Republicans can also win the Senate this fall. But, there is little hubris from McConnell.

"Its a perfect storm of problems for the Democrats because its an entirely Democratic government. A Democratic president. A Democratic House. A Democratic Senate," observed McConnell. "Which leads you to the question, How could you screw this up? Its actually possible and weve had some experience of that in the past."

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And so the expectations are ionospheric this November for Republicans.

The historical norms mean the GOP stands a very good chance of securing a majority in Congress. But over promising is something to watch.

Link:
Reporters Notebook: 2022 midterms and the Republicans confidence - Fox News

Video of their remarks at a private forum came to light Tuesday when a conservative group complained about being censored by YouTube.

A screenshot of police body camera footage from the Jan. 6 Capitol attack allegedly shows Reed Christensen pushing past a police barricade, according to federal court documents.

A panel of Oregon Republican candidates for governor, including one currently facing federal criminal charges for assaulting police officers at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, uniformly insisted recently that the events of that January day were a righteous protest.

Reed Christensen, Brandon Merritt, Tim McCloud, Kerry McQuisten, Amber Richardson, Bill Sizemore and Marc Thielman made their comments at a private Republican forum in Baker City in late March.

Their remarks came to light Tuesday, when a conservative organization founded by an aide on Donald Trumps 2016 campaign complained that video of the conversation had been removed from YouTube for violating the video platforms policies on misinformation.

The group, Look Ahead America, has been leading rallies throughout the country against what it refers to as political persecution of people who participated in a violent riot aimed at preventing Congress from certifying President Joe Bidens election. Five people died, nearly 140 police officers and countless rioters were injured and more than 700 people are facing federal criminal charges.

Christensen, a former Intel employee from Hillsboro, is among those facing charges. He is scheduled to appear via video in a Washington, D.C.,U.S. District Court on May 10, just a week before Oregons primary election.

According tocourt documents, Christensen struck or pushed several law enforcement officers and led a group that removed bike racks blocking people from moving closer to the Capitol. Officers sprayed him with a chemical irritant to discourage him from pushing through the bike racks, but he continued to push through, according to charging documents

Christensen told Republicans in Baker City that he was trying to wave a flag on the steps of the Capitol, though photos included in court documents dont show him with a flag. He compared himself to early Americans who participated in the Boston Tea Party.

We wanted to wave the flag on the steps of the Capitol, he said. They had bicycle racks with guards behind them, so I got a little upset. You can steal an election, break state law, federal law, I have to stay off the grass and stay behind your line and not wave the flag? So I got a little rowdy.

The audience applauded for Christensen after he told them he was facing charges.

Other candidates praised him. Merritt, a marketing consultant from Bend, said Christensen had a great story to tell before he falsely claimed that police invited rioters into the building.

January 6 was not an insurrection, he said. If the left is calling that an insurrection, what in the world are we calling whats happening in Portland? Because it certainly aint peaceful protests.

McQuisten, the mayor of Baker City, said she talked with Christensen and several eastern Oregonians who were at the Capitol on Jan. 6. They were engaged in peaceful prayer, she claimed.

None of the first-person accounts Ive heard line up with the media, McQuisten said.

News organizationsincluding the New York Timeshave obtained thousands of videos recorded by both rioters and police to reconstruct the events of the hours-long siege on the Capitol. Videos show frantic scrambles between police and protesters outside and inside the Capitol as crowds swarmed the building.

Sizemore, an anti-tax activist who was instrumental in passing several ballot measures and now owns a painting business in Redmond, referred to the Jan. 6 insurrection as an understatement.

He accused Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg of swaying election results, a theory that stems from grant money that election offices throughout the country received from a nonprofit organization supported by Zuckerberg. Local election officials used money to buy equipment, including personal protective equipment for election workers to reduce Covid infection risks, to pay staff and to adapt to changing laws, including in several states that greatly expanded mail voting because of the pandemic.

Sizemore said he was initially hesitant to believe false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, but that hes become convinced people will do whatever it takes to win.

Were going to need more protests like January 6, Sizemore said.

In an email to the Capital Chronicle, Sizemore allowed that a few bad actors engaged in wrongdoing, but said Democrats and journalists were trying to make the incident seem worse than it was.

McCloud, a Salem business development analyst, said the Capitol and all government buildings belong to the American people and they have the right to enter it at any time.

Thielman, the former superintendent of the Alsea School District, said the attempted insurrection was a response to the government failure.

When our courts wouldnt hear it, when our Congress wouldnt hear it, when our executive branch wouldnt hear it, we the people did what our Constitution allows us to do, he said. It was a wonderful patriotic protest.

He told the Capital Chronicle that the incident became a mess, and that he didnt condone behavior like storming the Capitol or sitting in House Speaker Nancy Pelosis desk, both of which rioters did.

Richardson, a licensed massage therapist from White City, said shes been part of a group canvassing elections in Jackson County, going door to door to talk to voters about fraud.

January 6 was not an insurrection, she said. November 3 was, and we know that.

She told the Capital Chronicle that she stood by her comments, and that she believes the media skewed perceptions of Jan. 6.

In November 2020, Jackson County Clerk Chris Walker found the phrase VOTE DONT WORK. NEXT TIME BULLETS painted in 6-foot letters in the parking lot across from her office. Walker and other county clerksstill receiveregular threats and angry calls and emails from people about the 2020 election, and theyre preparing to combat misinformation about the 2022 election.

Christensen, Merritt and McCloud did not immediately respond to emails Tuesday afternoon.

The Republican candidates response to questions about the Jan. 6 Capitol siege reflects a political divide in Oregon.

Recent polling from the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center found that about three-quarters of Democrats described the events as an attempted coup or insurrection, and most other Democrats thought it was best described as a riot out of control. A plurality of Republicans, 38%, said it was an out-of-control riot, but 16% described it as a reasonable protest and nearly a quarter said it was carried out by Trumps political opponents.

The Oregon Republican Party last year passed a resolution declaring the incident a false flag operation. Christine Drazan, then the House GOP leader and now a candidate for governor, led all 23 House Republicans in condemning the state party for that resolution.

Another candidate, Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam, has spent months trying to walk back comments he made to Portland alt-weekly Willamette Week shortly after Jan. 6 blaming Trump for inciting violence. He now presents himself as the only candidate willing to say that the 2020 election was fraudulent.

Oregon Capital Chronicleis part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Les Zaitz for questions:[emailprotected]Follow Oregon Capital Chronicle onFacebookandTwitter.

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Republicans running for Oregon governor defended the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. One was there - Salem Reporter

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES

Welcome to Political Outliers, a column that explores groups of Americans who are often portrayed as all voting the same way. In todays climate, its easy to focus on how a group identifies politically, but thats never the full story. Blocs of voters are rarely uniform in their beliefs, which is why this column will dive into undercovered parts of the electorate, showing how diverse and atypical most voters are.

Think you might fit the bill? Fill out this form and we might get in touch.

Jonathan M. remembers seeing the signs clearly: One for the Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-backed Greg Casar and another, near it, for Rep. Lloyd Doggett, a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus who was running for a neighboring district.

Yard placards for both progressive Democratic politicians, he said, were littered throughout his neighborhood in Austin, Texas in the lead-up to the states primary elections in March. On the one hand, this shouldnt be surprising: Austin likened to a blueberry in a bowl of tomato soup at least once by former Texas Gov. Rick Perry is known for its deep blue hue. But as a Republican, Jonathan M., who preferred to only use his first name and last initial out of privacy concerns, didnt plan to vote for either candidate.

In fact, the self-described classical conservative told me that he voted in the Republican primary in last months elections. But voters like Jonathan M. are somewhat of a rare breed in Austin. According to countywide voting records, only about 6 percent of registered voters in Travis County, where Austin primarily sits, voted in the states Republican primary, compared to almost 13 percent who cast a ballot in the Democratic one. (Turnout was low, however, like in most primaries.)

But its not just raw voting numbers that have helped Jonathan M. feel like an outlier: He said it took a drive down a major highway or perusal online to find even a handful of ads for Republican candidates. And even then, only marquee races, like the one for governor, were heavily advertised.

This primary cycle, I didnt see any Republican signs in my area, but in 2020 I saw a lot of signs for Rep. Chip Roy, he said, referencing the Austin-area Republican who once worked for Sen. Ted Cruz and has since become a conservative firebrand in the U.S. House. For big races, I feel like theres a lot more campaigning by Republicans here, but theres almost nothing happening for local races and, as a result, I feel like a lot of Democrats run unopposed.

Some of this is to be expected given just how much the U.S. sorts itself along geographic lines, with Democrats preferring to live in cities versus Republicans, who increasingly opt to call smaller towns or rural areas home. But this ideological sorting has still created a situation where many Republicans who live in the suburbs and bluer cities feel like outliers in their communities much like Democrats living in Trump country. Some of the voters we spoke with would tease their ideological preferences (through having a GOP candidates bumper sticker on their car, for instance), but most have kept their political opinions to themselves. Several expressed having trouble finding friends with similar values who live close to them, and many felt like their party had largely given up on campaigning in their area of town.

That said, there was one bright spot that helped many of the five Republicans and independent voters who have previously supported Republican candidates I spoke with feel more upbeat: the upcoming midterm elections. Expecting their party to likely flip the U.S. House, and maybe pick up a few seats in the U.S. Senate, was a way for them to reconcile their political identity even if representation wasnt going to change where they lived.

I am more excited about the national results than the local races, Charlie C., a 28-year-old self-proclaimed staunch conservative from St. Anthony, Minnesota, who only wanted to be identified by his first name and last initial, told me. I am hoping that this years results are reminiscent of the Tea Party red wave from 2014.

Its been some time, though, since Republicans like Charlie C. likely felt this way as counties including the one he currently lives in have steadily gotten bluer. In fact, thats been the case with practically all urban-suburban counties in the U.S.: From 2000 to 2020, urban-suburban counties have moved nearly 17 points toward Democrats, among them are Hennepin County and Ramsey County (where St. Anthony resides), according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of county-level election data since 2000 categorized using our Urbanization Index.

Not all suburban counties have swung so dramatically toward Democrats. For instance, mostly suburban counties have moved from about 50-50 in 2000 to just a 10-point Democratic edge in 2020. But suburban and urban areas have, on average, moved toward Democrats. Whats more, they comprise a large share of the nations voting power: In 2020, urban-suburban or mostly suburban counties made up almost 52 percent of the total vote.

I have yet to place a vote for a single political candidate at the state or national level such that my vote helped them gain office, Charlie C. admitted. I am a conservative who wonders if [Texas Sen. Ted] Cruz is far enough to the right in a district that elected [Rep.] Ilhan Omar.

Part of the issue for voters like Charlie C. is that Democrats have expanded their foothold in the suburban areas of the U.S. particularly during former President Donald Trumps tenure. According to Pew, suburbanites backed Trump narrowly over Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 2 points in 2016. But in 2018, Democrats took back control of the House thanks, in part, to the significant inroads they made in Americas suburbs and, by 2020, President Biden won suburban voters over Trump by 11 percentage points.

Jan Nijman, the director of the Urban Studies Institute at Georgia State University, told me part of the swing toward Democrats can be attributed to the changing demographics of the suburbs, including an increase in the number of college-educated and nonwhite voters living there. Weve seen most of our population growth in the U.S. in areas wed think of as suburban. And just that simple fact means theres now more diversity in those places, Nijman said. Another consequence of the suburbs becoming more economically and racially diverse, particularly in the last two decades, is that [theyve] become the most dynamic places in the electoral landscape, Nijman said.

It wasnt always like this, though. In fact, suburbs were once the desired destination for those looking to flee more diverse, urban areas especially for more conservative white voters. In the 1950s and 60s, Nijman told me, suburbia was understood as a place that was quite homogeneous and predictable, meaning that the people attracted to suburbs at the time were solidly middle-class and Republican-leaning. Thats changed over the last 20 or so years, however, as the suburbs have become more welcoming for people of color and immigrants both of whom tend to be more liberal politically. As a result, on average, the suburbs now lean toward Democrats, leaving some Republicans who live in these areas feeling neglected by the GOP. Its possible that the GOP may make some inroads in 2022, particularly in counties classified as mostly suburban, but those areas have still overwhelmingly moved toward Democrats since 2000.

I definitely feel abandoned by the state party and like theyve kind of given up on Atlanta, said Michael A., a 25-year-old who preferred to only use his first name and last initial out of privacy concerns. For the past few years or so, theyve stopped talking about issues that matter in the metro area like how high our taxes are or how the cost of living has gone up dramatically. Theyre really focused on the rural areas more now, which I understand, but there are still a lot of Republican voters in my area who feel unheard.

That said, even though their communities are moving left, some Republicans I spoke with said theyre moving further right. A handful of my interviewees pointed to the protests for racial justice in the summer of 2020 following the murder of George Floyd as a turning point. Democratic calls at the time to radically shift police policy, including a reduction in police budgets, turned off many Republicans I spoke with.

If I wasnt conservative before 2020, I wouldve been a hardcore one after that summer, said Chris Germiller, a 28-year-old from Rockville, Maryland. For many reasons, that was the worst time of my life due to the constant onslaught of everyone I knew pretending they were a criminologist and prescribing insane policy solutions toward policing. That summer pushed me, emotionally, more to the right.

Part of Germillers frustration likely stems from the fact that, on average, suburban and urban residents hold more liberal views on issues of racism and racial justice than rural Americans. According to a 2018 Pew survey, 69 percent of urban residents and 60 percent of suburban ones (compared to 47 percent of rural dwellers) said they believed that white Americans benefit from certain privileges that Black Americans dont have. And while many of the Republicans I spoke with said they believe racism still plays a prominent role in todays society, they didnt think reducing or eliminating law enforcement was the answer.

Ideas like defund the police are just crazy to me. Why would you defund the police? said Liliana S., a 49-year-old Denver, Colorado resident who was born in Venezuela and preferred to only use her first name and last initial out of privacy concerns. I come from a country where police are not funded and not respected. The result is you get a bunch of mafia and drug lords and common thieves running the country.

Of course, some of the shift to the left on policing is overstated and its possible that, while these Republicans are outliers in some of their views toward policing, they might have more in common with their liberal neighbors than they realize. For example, prominent leaders in the Democratic Party, including Biden, have emphatically dismissed calls to defund the police. Moreover, polls suggest that voters regardless of where they live dont want to cut funding to police departments. According to a June 2020 Morning Consult survey, less than half of suburban dwellers (43 percent) supported redirecting police funds to communities, while 28 percent were in favor of defund the police. A September poll from Pew also showed a significant decline in overall support for cutting police funding.

Still, defund the police has become a motivating issue for Republican voters. This is, in part, because GOP lawmakers have capitalized on the movement and successfully tied it to unsubstantiated fears regarding an increase in violent crime regardless of whether thats actually happening. In addition, several cities took steps in 2020 to change policing that Republicans said rubbed them the wrong way.

Jonathan M., for example, said he was disappointed when Austins City Council voted that year to slash part of the citys police budget, which it was later forced to refund amid pressure from the states Republican governor. For a while, though, he claimed that he heard numerous stories from neighbors who were robbed or burglarized, but who were still hesitant to call the police for assistance. Some people are against calling the cops because they think it will result in escalation of the issue, he said. I disagree, of course, but knowing how my neighbors feel about these things makes me more reserved, and I try to keep a distance from those conversations.

This has exacerbated a belief among people I spoke with that Democrats (and, in turn, their respective cities) have moved even further to the left, specifically on issues related to race and public safety. And many of the Republicans I talked to say they no longer feel like they can have constructive conversations with their neighbors and coworkers about policies they disagree on a sentiment that Democrats living in rural areas of the U.S. felt, too.

Its tough to grow a friend circle. Admittedly, Im a bit of an introvert to begin with, but even at work, its tough to talk about anything other than shop because this is a left-leaning area, Charlie C., the conservative voter in Minnesota, said.

But even though Republicans like Charlie C. might feel like outsiders now, there are signs that 2022 will likely be a good year for Republicans nationally. And because some of the areas my interviewees lived in arent as blue as some rural areas are red, its possible these Republicans will even see some political changes in their areas, especially those in more suburban or exurban areas.

You know, even if the Republican Party isnt going to win Fulton County anytime soon, there are hundreds of thousands of Republican voters in urban areas and if you get them excited, theyre going to put you over the finish line, said Michael A., who noted that hes seen a handful of bumper stickers for Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in recent weeks.

Indeed, 2022 offers prime pick-up opportunities for Republicans: According to our generic ballot average, which tracks which party people plan to vote for in the upcoming congressional election Republicans currently lead Democrats by about 2 percentage points. Moreover, since much of the previous suburban shift toward Democrats in 2018 and 2020 appears to have been driven by disdain for Trump, its not clear whether these gains will hold without him on the ballot. This is evident in polling from Reuters/Ipsos which has found that Biden is struggling to hold suburban voters since coming into office last year: Only 44 percent said they approve of his job as president as of last week down nearly 7 points since around this time last year.

Polling from Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll released in January tells a similar story. It found that 57 percent of suburban respondents were more likely to vote for a Republican candidate in the midterms, versus 43 percent who said theyd be more likely to vote for a Democratic one. Whats also working in the GOPs favor is that the party so far has capitalized on an enticing pitch to rile up voters: highlighting culture war issues and broad disapproval with the Biden administration. On top of that, Glenn Youngkins win in Virginia last year suggests that its possible for certain Republicans to win competitive states including parts of the suburbs with the right roadmap.

That means Republicans in blue cities and suburbs might have reason to be optimistic for November, especially since 2022 will likely serve as a test of sorts for how durable suburban gains have been and whether well see a lurch back to the right. Of course, that wont change the makeup of some very urban areas that have voted solidly Democratic for the last two decades or so, but it does mean that some of these Republicans might not be the outliers that they think they are.

Charlie C. put it plainly: Its less that the GOP has abandoned [my] area, and more that they are out-gunned. They dont have the ability to mobilize in every district, he said. I realize I am in enemy territory. Im just hoping to be able to minimize some of the damage.

Geoffrey Skelley contributed research.

See original here:
Why Republicans In Blue Cities Are Increasingly Outliers - FiveThirtyEight

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell after Senate Republicans weekly luncheon on Capitol Hill on April 5, 2022.Tom Brenner/Reuters

McConnell worried that angering Trump ahead of the Georgia Senate runoffs could cost his party the Senate.

He privately told Republicans to "stay focused on Georgia" even as Trump claimed he could overturn the presidential election.

"I've been calling folks in those states and they're with us," Trump boasted to senators in a December 2020 call.

Even as then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell avoided discussing his concerns about former President Donald Trump's baseless claims about the 2020 presidential election being stolen or fraudulent, he privately worried that Trump would cost their party control of the Senate by derailing two Georgia Republicans' run-off campaigns.

That's according to new details from "This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future,"a forthcoming book from New York Times reporters Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns, that were reported by CNN on Wednesday.

Trump reportedly told McConnell and other Republican senators in a December 2020 call that he'd personally been told by state officials in Pennsylvania and Michigan that they would take steps to keep him in power.

"I've been calling folks in those states and they're with us," Trump told the senators on the call, per Martin and Burns. He also reportedly believed that if he could pressure Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to de-certify President Joe Biden's election victory in Georgia, then other states would follow suit in a "domino effect."

That would've flipped Biden's 306-232 electoral college victory to a 284-254 victory for Trump, keeping him in the White House for a second term.

But McConnell was far more focused on the upcoming January 5 runoff elections in Georgia, where Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler faced close races with Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively.

On the call, Burns and Martin report that Trump also claimed that Georgia voters wouldn't tolerate Kemp's assurances about the security of the election, and that Perdue and Loeffler should speak up lest they lose their races.

Story continues

That contention was reportedly met with silence from McConnell.

Then-President Donald Trump speaking with then-Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler in Georgia ahead of a rally.Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

"We've got to stay focused on Georgia," McConnell told his colleagues right after the December 2020 call with Trump, according to Martin and Burns.

Ultimately, Ossoff and Warnock prevailed in an upset that many attributed to depressed Republican turnout due to Trump's false claims about the 2020 election.

The book also reported that McConnell sought to maintain a "strategic silence" about Trump's false claims in order to prevent him from sabotaging the party's chances in the runoffs.

"What it looks to me like he's doing is setting this up so he can blame the governor and the secretary of state if we lose," McConnell told the book's authors ahead of the 2021 runoffs. "He's always setting up somebody to blame it on."

A McConnell spokesman declined to comment to CNN, while Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich told the outlet that the former president "has been clear and consistent about the indisputable evidence of fraud in the 2020 presidential election and the need to hold those criminals accountable."

Trump and McConnell haven't spoken since December 15, 2020, when the Republican leader went to the floor of the Senate and declared that "the Electoral College has spoken."

Trump has since criticized McConnell in blistering terms while calling for him to be overthrown as the Senate Republican leader.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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McConnell told Republican senators they've 'got to stay focused on Georgia' immediately after Trump told them that he could overturn the 2020...

ITHACA, N.Y.Two candidates have filed enough petition signatures to run for the Republican nomination for Ithaca mayor, but one has challenged the others number of signatures, which could threaten their place on the ballot.

The two candidates are Ithaca conservative activist Zachary Winn, known for his vocal opposition to police reform and frequent condemnations of COVID-19 safety measures at local public meetings, as well as William Metro, best known for the phrase Do you want to see some magic? preceding his Magic Man routine on the Commons (as well as his public access television show).

Both submitted petitions for Republican mayoral runs earlier this month; their campaigns have not been previously reported. Similarly, both are expected to strike fairly hardline conservative stances during the primary: Metro is an avowed fan of former President Donald Trump and conservative icon Sean Hannity, while Winn has been seen in several confrontations with racial justice protesters in the last 18 months or so, especially in the lead-up to the 2020 election. He also runs the blog Ithaca Crime, which is about crime in Ithaca.

However, Winn has filed a General Objection with the Tompkins County Board of Elections, ostensibly contesting the validity of petitions that Metro submitted. Metro submitted 37 signatures on his designating petitions document; Winn submitted 61 signatures of his own. Board of Elections officials confirmed they are the only Republican candidates to submit designating petitions for the primary election, which takes place on June 28.

The specific nature of Winns complaint is unclear, though if he continues through the process he will have to specify his objections by next week. Signatories on petitions must be residents of the City of Ithaca and be a registered member of the same party as the candidatea glance at Metros petition shows that each of his signatures do indeed list Ithaca addresses. Some of the entries are difficult to read, though that is fairly common for designating petition submissions.

Winn, who ran for mayor at least one other time, in 2007, has not yet responded to a request for comment via email.

Winn submitted a General Objection yesterday.He now has 6 days to submit his specifications. He will need to submit his Specific Objections to our office by Monday, April 18th, said Republican Commissioner of Elections Tamara Scott.

According to the county Board of Elections, 37 petition signatures is the minimum threshold required to get on the ballot for Republicans, representing a certain percentage of the total number of registered Republicans within the City of Ithaca (for contrast, in the heavily Democratic city, 410 signatures are required for Democratic candidates). That means, technically, that if any of Metros signatures are thrown out, he will not have enough to get on the ballot unless he is granted more time.

Metro, in brief comments to The Ithaca Voice, said he does not know why his petitions would have been challenged.

Theyre all legit, Metro said. What reason does Zach have to challenge them? We are running in the same party. [] If he really wants to challenge me, he can do it on primary day at the ballot box.

Both candidates are running for the Republican nomination for Ithaca mayor, looking for the opportunity to face incumbent Democrat Laura Lewis, who is now serving as the acting mayor and is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Winn and Metro are likely to strike a very different tone from Lewis

Whoever is victorious in the November general election will serve one year to finish out former Mayor Svante Myricks term, and there will be another election in November 2023 to determine who will be the mayor for a full four-year term after that.

The last time a petition objection had a tangible impact on local politics was 2017, when Tompkins County Legislature candidate Keith Hannon was prevented from running as a Democrat because of an objection to his submitted petitions.

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Two new Republican candidates for Ithaca mayor already sparring over petition signatures - The Ithaca Voice