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Republicans have spent much of the last year trying to recruit competitive contenders for 2022 U.S. Senate races, but without much luck. There was, however, one more dream candidate the party hoped to convince: Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey.

As Republican leaders saw it, the two-term governor would be the most competitive candidate to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the fall, and so they gave Ducey the hard sell. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell helped lead the lobbying effort, though even George W. Bush got involved, as the party desperately hoped to persuade the Arizonan.

It didnt work. The Arizona Republic reported this morning:

Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey will not run for the U.S. Senate this year, he told donors in a letter obtained by The Arizona Republic, finally putting to rest whether he held aspirations for elected office this cycle. Duceys announcement to some of his closest financial allies ends the long-running effort by national and local Republican leaders and deep-pocketed donors to recruit him for the race against Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., whose reelection could decide which party controls the evenly divided chamber.

If the developments sound familiar, its not your imagination. A month ago, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan also announced he was rebuffing his partys overtures and would not launch a Republican Senate campaign. Before that, GOP leaders practically begged Gov. Chris Sununu to run in New Hampshire, and he also said no. Republicans also asked Gov. Phil Scott to run in Vermont, and he gave the same answer.

Now that Ducey has come to the same conclusion, the result is a rough tally for the National Republican Senatorial Committee: Four sitting governors were asked to run, and all four declined.

Remember, theres ample evidence to suggest this will be a very good year for GOP candidates up and down the ballot, so its not as if these governors rejected party overtures because they faced electoral headwinds.

But as we recently discussed, theres a problem Republicans have struggled to overcome: McConnell and his colleagues want to recruit the best possible candidates to run for Senate seats, but theyve also created a chamber that the best possible candidates dont want to be a part of. Sununu, in particular, very nearly launched a Senate campaign, right up until he talked to GOP senators about their governing plans at which point the New Hampshire governor quickly moved in the opposite direction.

It very likely doesn't help that the party's effective leader is a failed former president, from whom none of these governors want to take orders.

The result of these failed recruiting attempts will likely be a Republican Party stuck with several nominees in competitive races who are both far from the American mainstream and difficult to take seriously.

That doesnt necessarily mean theyll lose. It probably wouldnt be appropriate to name names, but the Senate already has some Republican members who are far from the American mainstream and difficult to take seriously, but they got elected anyway.

But GOP leaders hoped to improve the partys odds by recruiting governors whod be well positioned to succeed. That initiative hasnt worked.

Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MSNBC political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "The Impostors: How Republicans Quit Governing and Seized American Politics."

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Yet another GOP governor rejects Senate Republican overtures - MSNBC

He defended the Republican National Committee this month after it passed a resolution to censure Ms. Cheney and the other Republican member of the Jan. 6 committee, Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois; the resolution said they were involved in the persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse. In contrast, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, castigated the party.

In private talks to donors, Mr. McCarthy often does not mention Mr. Trump as he makes his aggressive pitch about the coming red wave and what Republicans would do should they reclaim the majority.

But he is often asked whether Mr. Trump intends to run for president.

Mr. McCarthy has told donors that Mr. Trump has not yet made up his mind and that he has advised the former president to see whether President Biden runs for re-election. Mr. McCarthy also often mentions former House members who he says could make for serious presidential contenders, including Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.

On Capitol Hill, Mr. McCarthys basic problem comes down to math. Leadership positions in the House can be secured with a majority vote from the members of each party. But the speaker is a constitutional official elected by the whole House and therefore must win a majority at least 218 votes.

In 2015, after the most conservative House members drove the speaker, John A. Boehner, into retirement, Mr. McCarthy, then the No. 2 Republican, was the heir apparent and he blew it. His biggest public offense was a television appearance in which he blurted out that the House had created a special committee to investigate the attack on a U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, expressly to diminish Hillary Clintons approval ratings.

I said multiple times at the time, we need a speaker who can speak, recalled former Representative Jason Chaffetz, who challenged Mr. McCarthy for the speakership after the gaffe.

Ultimately, Republicans recruited Paul D. Ryan, the Ways and Means Committee chairman and former vice-presidential nominee, for the job.

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Courting G.O.P.s Mainstream and Extreme, McCarthy Plots Rise to Speaker - The New York Times

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy expects to be a happy chappy in November unless Donald Trump pushes him aside. Photo: Shutterstock

Whatever is bad for the current Democratic-controlled federal government of the United States is good for the Republican Party as it looks forward eagerly to this Novembers midterms. There is no landscape more inviting than a narrowly held trifecta for your opponents: Democrats will bear responsibility for the mood of voters troubled by a stubborn pandemic, a sudden burst of inflation, a dangerous unstable international situation, and the inability of the governing party to deliver on many of its ambitious promises. The underwhelming nature of the Democratic victory in 2020 (especially in the House, where Democrats lost seats instead of posting the gains they expected) makes hanging on to the trifecta very difficult and historically improbable, particularly given President Bidens poor job approval ratings, which have stabilized in the low 40s for the moment.

So its not surprising to see exceptional optimism emanating from Republican circles. According to The Hill, GOP strategists are now raising their own expectations and preparing for a wave that will sweep not only contests in highly competitive territory but those that could turn blue areas red:

This year, the first midterm after a presidents been elected with both houses of Congress, it sets up really well, said one GOP strategist with experience working in Colorado. And theres been nothing, literally nothing to date, that looks to disrupt a really, really positive environment for candidates running in red, purple and blue areas. Thats why the map has a really huge opportunity to stretch.

Well, theres the little matter of a Donald Trump, who threatens to take away some of the focus that typically makes midterms a referendum on the current presidents performance while also creating unnecessary primary fights that may not result in the strongest possible general-election candidates. And Republicans need to be realistic about the possible extent of their midterm gains if they want to target their resources effectively and avoid their own disappointing election. This isnt easy at a time when hype and spin and proclamations of impending total victory seem to be part of the GOPs DNA, partly thanks to the former president.

But the stretching of the map of competitive races does seem likely if the bad economic and foreign news continues. Add in the stalling of the Democratic legislative agenda in Congress and continued Republican interference with voting rights in the states and you dont have an atmosphere likely to produce strong Democratic turnout in November.

How far could Republicans reach? Pretty far, as The Hill notes:

Republicans have already begun allocating staff and money for ad buys and touting strong candidate recruitment in states like New Mexico and Colorado, which are not at the core of the midterm fight but could be caught in a red wave if it rises high enough. Connecticuts gubernatorial race and Washington states Senate election also fall in that expansion category, as do House races against some Democrats who saw double-digit wins in 2020.

Aside from the possibility of unexpected Senate and gubernatorial gains (not to mention the secretary of State races that Trump has been eyeing with bad intent), its the House that Republicans are most focused on given how close (five seats) they already are to a majority. The fact that 30 House Democrats are retiring this year (the most since 1992) is another strong omen, much like birds in flight before a big storm. As Punchbowl News reports, the head of the House GOPs campaign committee, Tom Emmer of Minnesota, is talking pretty big:

If we win 18 seats,its a larger majority than 1994, Emmer noted. If we win 30 seats, its larger than 2010. And I think the number is 32 but correct me if Im wrong If we win 32 seats, its the largest Republican majority in 100 years.

Now, that would be a wave! But as Emmer undoubtedly knows, big House gains in years like 1994 and 2010 created less than majestic majorities because they occurred when Republicans were deep in a hole going into the cycle (they had 176 seats prior to the 1994 midterms and 179 prior to 2010; they have 213 now). Thus Democrats had more exposure to losses because they held more marginal seats. A more reasonable, if still ambitious, expectation might be something like the 13 net House seats they gained in 2014. That would still make Kevin McCarthy speaker (unless some backbench House Freedom Caucusled revolt toppled him) but not with a majority much more comfortable than Nancy Pelosis today.

So Republicans currently have a wind at their backs, but a big win wont come easily to a party as extremist and sometimes chaotic as theirs.

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Republicans See Red Wave and Look to Make It Even Bigger - New York Magazine

INSURGENCYHow Republicans Lost Their Party and Got Everything They Ever WantedBy Jeremy W. Peters

When Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on the morning of June 16, 2015, there was little indication the event would alter American political history. Pundits dismissed Trumps chances. He was polling at 4 percent; the head of Fox News, Roger Ailes, suggested Trump was really seeking a job at NBC, not the White House.

But Trump did make an impression on Steve Bannon, a voluble conservative activist plotting his own takeover of the Republican Party. Watching the reality-television star deliver remarks from the Trump Tower food court to a crowd that allegedly included actors who had been paid $50 to hold signs and cheer, Bannon couldnt contain himself. Thats Hitler! Bannon said. And, as Jeremy W. Peters writes in this spirited new history, he meant it as a compliment.

Insurgency chronicles the astonishingly swift transformation of the Republican Party, from the genteel preserve of pro-business elites to a snarling personality cult that views the Jan. 6 insurrection as an exercise in legitimate political discourse. Peters, a political reporter for The New York Times, depicts mainstream Republicans surrender to Trumpism as a form of political self-flagellation. From 1969 to 2008, Republicans occupied the White House for all but 12 years. And yet one of the more peculiar features of American conservatism is that despite decades of Republican rule, many true believers grew embittered and resentful of their party. They thought it was run by weak-willed leaders who compromised and sold out once they got in power.

The outlines of the Republicans hard-right turn are by now largely familiar. What distinguishes Insurgency is its blend of political acuity and behind-the-scenes intrigue. Much of the books opening material revolves around the first national figure to channel the bases anger: the former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who might have forestalled Trumps rise had she chosen to run for president in 2012. Trump was sufficiently concerned about Palins potential to claim the title of populist standard-bearer that he invited her to Trump Tower in 2011 to size her up in person. He concluded that while she had tremendous political appeal, she didnt know what to do about it.

Trump, of course, did. Peters is a fluid and engaging writer, and as the narrative of Insurgency unfolds and Trump inevitably, irresistibly, assumes center stage, you almost cant help admiring as Bannon did the candidates raw, demagogic genius: Devoid of empathy, incapable of humility and unfamiliar with what it means to suffer consequences, he behaved and spoke in ways most would never dare. In one luridly fascinating section, Peters details how Trump defused the furor over the Access Hollywood tape by ambushing Hillary Clinton with her husbands accusers at the second presidential debate in St. Louis. The stunt came about thanks to a norm-shattering partnership between the Trump campaign and Aaron Klein, a 36-year-old reporter for Bannons website, Breitbart News, who tracked down the women and cajoled them into attending.

In the history of modern presidential politics, no candidate had pulled off such a ruthless act of vengeance in public, Peters writes. It changed the game, proving to Trump and his allies that there was nothing off-limits anymore. So pivotal was Kleins role in Trumps upset victory that Jared Kushner later told him, My father-in-law wouldnt be president without you.

Anecdotes like these make Insurgency worth reading, though its harder to say who would want to. The book contains too many examples of Trumps manifest flaws to appeal to MAGA true believers, but not enough revelations of outright criminality to satisfy veterans of the #resistance. With the specter of a 2024 Trump candidacy looming, the rest of us could use a break while we can still get one. He just dominates every day, Bannon told Trumps advisers in 2020, warning of voters exhaustion with the president. Its like a nightmare. Youll do anything to get rid of it. Easier said than done.

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How Donald Trump Captured the Republican Party - The New York Times

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A local South Carolina council member is ditching the Democratic Party and running for reelection as a Republican.

"Some things that I had looked at, I just don't agree with any longer," Dorchester County council member Harriet Holman told "Fox & Friends First" on Wednesday.

"One of the things was that I am just totally pro-life, and I am by for capitalism, I am for funding the police. Those things are what made me make my final decision," she told host Todd Piro.

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The retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel said she believes Republicans will grow their numbers in African-American communities.

"We're born into our families, and we kind of take on the trait of what our families are, and my parents were Democrats," she explained.

Holman noted since she retired from the military, she started getting more involved in her community. She saw policies she didnt agree with and decided to become a Republican, instead.

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"It wasn't an easy decision. I talked to family, I talked to friends, I talked to my constituents, and a lot of my family members are really Republican, as well. So it was not too hard of a transition at all," she remarked.

The Dorchester County council member added she is "very happy" with her decision.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 19: Michael Bloomberg attends the 2019 American Songbook Gala at Alice Tully Hall at Lincoln Center on June 19, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg wrote in an op-ed Tuesday, warning Democrats are "headed for a wipeout" in the midterm elections this November. His argument is that Democrats need to stop focusing on "political correctness" and "culture wars."

Holman argued that one of the biggest things Democrats should be focused on is inflation.

"[This is] the highest inflation we've had since 1982, I believe, and then we're talking about gas prices, which we may see a $4 gas price here in this year, alone. So those are the things that we need to focus on," she concluded.

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"Those are the things that my constituents are focusing on, those are the things that I want to change and help my constituents get through. We need to just help them get further with not having inflation being a huge part of their life right now."

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South Carolina Democrat switches to Republican Party: 'I am pro-life and for funding police' - Fox News