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Ever since entering Congress, Marjorie Taylor Greene has been making headlines for her long history of peddling conspiracy theories, her blatant embrace of anti-Muslim bigotry and white Christian nationalism, and her aggression against political opponents. The latest escalation came last week, when she smeared her Republican colleagues in the Senate, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Mitt Romney, as pro-pedophile after they voted to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson to the US supreme court; Democrats, she added, are the party of pedophiles.

There is a calculating quality to Greenes polemics. Last fall, for instance, she recorded a campaign video in which she used a military-grade sniper rifle to blow up a car that had the word socialism written on it, promising to do the same to the Democrats socialist agenda. It was over-exaggerated campaign nonsense. But Greene knew the unsubtle insinuation of using violence against a political opponent would demand attention.

The fact that Greenes antics are so clearly designed to keep herself in the spotlight has prompted calls for the media and commentators to stop paying attention to her rather than be complicit in the amplification of far-right propaganda. And if whats on display here were just the extremist behavior of a fringe figure, it would indeed be best to simply ignore her. This, however, isnt just Greenes extremism it is increasingly that of the Republican party itself. Greene and the many provocateurs like her are not just rightwing trolls, but elected officials in good standing with their party. Ignoring them wont work, nor will making fun of them: These people are in positions of influence, fully intent on using their power.

In any (small-d) democratic party, Greenes extremism should be disqualifying. In todays Republican party, shes not being expelled, shes being elevated. Greene is undoubtedly one of the rightwing stars in the country, and thats not just a media phenomenon. Republican candidates crave her endorsement. Democrats stripped her of her committee assignments against the vote of nearly all of Greenes Republican colleagues; if the Republicans capture the House in November, shell probably get those assignments back.

It is true that occasionally, Greenes most egregious actions have led to some measure of symbolic distancing from Republican leadership. After she spoke at the white supremacist America First Political Action Conference (Afpac) in February, where she was enthusiastically introduced and embraced by the well-known far-right activist and Nazi sympathizer Nick Fuentes, minority leader Kevin McCarthy gave her a good talking to but no serious consequences followed.

Overall, Greenes position within the Republican party seems secure. Thats partly because the Republican leadership is surely aware that most of the energy and activism in conservatism is in the far-right wing that stands behind Greene. In fact, Greene is the poster child of a rising group of rightwing radicals: in Congress, she likes to present herself and like-minded allies such as representatives Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz as the future of the Republican party, and they arent shy about their intention to purge whatever vestiges of moderate conservatism might still exist within the Republican party.

Greenes rise is indicative of a more openly militant form of white Christian nationalism inserting itself firmly at the center of Republican politics. America First candidates like Greene are representing the Republican party all over the country. In Arizona, for instance, state senator Wendy Rogers proudly declared herself to stand with Jesus, Robert E Lee, and the Cleveland Indians back in December all of them supposedly canceled by satanic communists; and at the aforementioned AFPAC in February, Rogers suggested building gallows to hang political enemies. In Georgia, gubernatorial candidate Kandiss Taylor runs on a platform of Jesus, Guns, and Babies and openly advocates for the establishment of a Christian theocracy.

The Republican party doesnt just tolerate such extremists in an attempt to appease the fringe this isnt simply a matter of acquiescence out of convenience or cowardice. What we really need to grapple with is the fact that this sort of radicalism is widely seen as justified on the right. The exact language someone like Greene uses might be slightly crasser than what some conservatives are comfortable with, and some Republicans might disagree with specific aspects of the public image she projects. But its obviously not enough for them to break with her, or with any of the Christian nationalist extremists in their ranks.

If anything, most of what Greene is saying actually aligns with the general thrust of conservative politics. Republicans are currently all in on smearing anyone who disagrees with their assault on LGBTQ rights as groomers and declaring any progressive social position adjacent to pedophilia. And its really hard to tell the difference between Greenes propaganda and what much of the reactionary intellectual sphere has been producing. Rod Dreher, for instance, one of the Religious Rights best-known exponents, has called the Democrats the party of groomers and the party of child mutilators and kidnappers lately. Or take the gun-toting militancy that was on display in Greenes campaign video. Republicans have long embraced the gun cult and made it a key element of their political identity. Now candidates up and down the country have the whole family, including young children, pose for heavily armed photos, reveling in the imagery of using guns to fight off those insidious Democrats and their assault on America.

Thats precisely the key to understanding why so many Republicans are willing to embrace political extremism. Greenes central message is fully in line with what has become dogma on the right: that Democrats are a radical, Un-American threat, and have to be stopped by whatever means. Everyone suspected of holding liberal or progressive positions is a fellow traveler with the radical left, as senator Ted Cruz put it; as part of the militant left, Democrats need to be treated as the the enemy within, according to senator Rick Scott; and Florida governor Ron DeSantis declared that Stacey Abrams winning the Georgia gubernatorial election would be akin to a foreign adversary taking over and lead to a cold war between the two neighboring states.

It doesnt matter to the right that Greenes pedophilia accusations lack any empirical basis. What matters is that they adhere to the higher truth of conservative politics: that Democrats are a fundamental threat to the country, to its moral foundations, its very survival. How much more can America take before our civilization begins to collapse? Greene asked last week. There arent many conservatives left who disagree with her assessment. Thats how they are giving themselves permission to embrace whatever radical measures are deemed necessary to defeat this Un-American enemy. Once you have convinced yourself you are fighting a noble war against a bunch of pedophiles hellbent on destroying the nation, there are no more lines youre not justified to cross. Greene and her fellow extremists are perceived to be useful shock troops in an existential struggle for the survival of real America. The right isnt getting distracted by debates over whether Greenes militant extremism or Mitch McConnells extreme cynicism are the right approach to preventing multiracial pluralism. They are united in the quest to entrench white reactionary rule.

I fear that four years of Trumpism in power so inundated us with political stunts and outrageous political acts that we might have become a bit numb to how extreme and dangerous these developments are. Lets not be lulled into a false sense of security by the clownishness, the ridiculousness of it all. Some of historys most successful authoritarians were considered goons and buffoons by their contemporaries until they became goons and buffoons in power.

What we are witnessing is one party rapidly abandoning and actively assaulting the foundations of democratic political culture. Every Western society has always harbored some far-right extremists like Greene. But the fact that the Republican party embraces and elevates people like her constitutes an acute danger to democracy.

Thomas Zimmer is a visiting professor at Georgetown University, focused on the history of democracy and its discontents in the United States, and a Guardian US contributing opinion writer

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Extremists like Marjorie Taylor Greene are the future of the Republican party - The Guardian

Republicans are engaged in a furious effort to recruit election judges, guided in part by the false impression that the 2020 election was stolen, and that an army of GOP eyes will secure victory next time.

Sen. Mary Kiffmeyer, R-Big Lake, recently hosted an event in Buffalo that was advertised with a photo of Uncle Sam urging people to get involved, saying Did you know that in the 2020 election there were 20,000 Democrat election judges in MN and only 3,000 Republican judges? Do your part to restore democracy.

Its possible, and likely, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party recruited more poll workers than their Republican counterparts, but the Secretary of States Office couldnt confirm the numbers.

Kiffmeyer told the Buffalo audience of about a dozen that Secretary of State Steve Simon has been removing GOP election judges on technicalities. Peter Bartz-Gallagher, a spokesman for Simon, said state election workers not Simon check the lists and match names with precincts, but thats it.

Kiffmeyer urged people to work the polls in counties other than the one they live in.

Dont take for granted any location, she said.

A man in the audience credited another attendee for signing up to be an election judge in Hennepin County. Hes a very brave man, he said, an apparent reference to DFL dominance of the states largest county.

Kiffmeyer, a former two-term secretary of state, has also introduced legislation (SF 3469) that would require that ballot boards be recorded and livestreamed on Election Day. Shes working with city and county officials eager to dispel distrust in the electorate.

In a recent campaign email, GOP gubernatorial candidate Paul Gazelka urged people to sign up to be election judges, saying hes disheartened by the lack of trust in our voting system.

The subject line of the same Gazelka e-mail was more incendiary: Democrats will do anything to rig this election.

Republican Secretary of State candidate Kim Crockett is pushing what she calls an Eyes on Every Ballot initiative and is recruiting election judges with the help of patriot groups.

She has accused Simon of rigging the system. Shes been critical of Simons decision in 2020 to agree to a settlement with voting rights groups that sued the state to expand mail balloting due to the pandemic. Crockett crowed that if more Republicans are watching elections, more Republicans will win this year. Crockett attributes Republicans recent success in Virginia to getting more Republicans into precincts, and says she has a Virginia plan for Minnesota.

Republicans have been asleep at the wheel for years, she said at a recent event.

Claims that Republicans were cheated out of electoral victory in Minnesota in 2020 dont stand up to scrutiny.

President Joe Bidens Minnesota victory was comparable to a bevy of statewide DFL victories going back to 2006. Moreover, except for the top of the ticket, Republicans had a good election: They retained control of the state Senate, won state House seats and flipped a congressional seat that had been in DFL hands for three decades.

Election administrators say much of the GOP hullabaloo around election judges is misplaced.

Election judges are the people you see when you go to vote they greet voters, accept ballots and help voters who have questions at the polls on Election Day. Although the major parties submit lists of names to the secretary of states office, most election judges are recruited by local election officials.

Its just your friends and neighbors, Bartz-Gallagher said.

Local election authorities city and county employees then train election judges and oversee them.

Were a check to each other, and so were kind of making sure the Democrats dont cheat, and the Democrats are trying to make sure we dont cheat, said Kiffmeyer, who said she was an election judge for 11 years.

Local election officials must make sure there is party balance among the poll workers, which can be challenging in some heavily Republican or Democratic areas.

Max Hailperin, a retired computer scientist who consults on election systems, said Crockett and other Republicans seem to think eyes on every ballot as opposed to persuading more voters to support their candidates will flip Minnesota red by foiling a nefarious plot, what he called the deep magic.

This isnt the way to instill confidence in the election system, he said. Hailperins fear: Republicans win due to typical mid-term dynamics, but their victory will bolster fears among the GOP rank-and-file that the 2020 election was stolen and that victory this year is due to more Republican eyes watching.

Its not a new thing for Minnesota Republicans to wring their hands about getting more election judges, Hailperin said. The push may be more successful this year because it taps into the energy of 2020 stolen election fears, which Democrats refer to as The Big Lie.

Brian Evans, spokesman for the Minnesota DFL Party, said the GOP is outsourcing recruitment of election judges to the fringe of the party. A former military man from Texas and a former Minnesota mayor, for instance, have been drawing hundreds of Minnesotans to their presentations.

Seth Keshel of Fort Worth and former St. Bonifacius Mayor Rick Weible encourage people to sign up to be election judges during their hours-long presentations stoking fears that the 2020 election was stolen.

Other recruiters include Keith Haskall, who was convicted of pretending to be a police officer and pepper spraying a teenager he caught shoplifting in 2017. He says hes an investigator for something called the National Action Task Force, which claims to defend the U.S. Constitution.

Hailperin worries that if a bunch of conspiracy-minded people sign up to be election judges, they could easily get unduly excited about perfectly normal discrepancies. That could lead to what he called disruptive vigilantism or the spread of misinformation afterward.

For example, they may insist on being inches away from everything going on, or they may have an incorrect understanding of the law and try to improperly intervene, Hailperin said.

This all demeans the service of actual election judges from all parties, Hailperin recently tweeted of Crocketts claims. They have been working together to make democracy happen some for years, some newly so. They arent there to cheat. They arent there to stop the others from cheating. They are there so voters get to vote.

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The Republican push to get more eyes on the polls this November - Minnesota Reformer

In May, Republicans from across Wisconsin will travel to Dane County for the GOPs annual state convention. Hold onto your MAGA hat, can that be right? The same Dane County thats home to the Peoples Republic of Madison and that voted overwhelmingly for Gov. Tony Evers and President Joe Biden?

You heard right. Dane County will host the Republican Party of Wisconsins 2022 state convention at the Marriott hotel in Middleton May 20-22.

Anna Kelly, spokesperson for the Republican Party of Wisconsin, tells Isthmus that the GOP faithful arent afraid to visit the heart of the beast.

As families confront widespread inflation, historic learning loss, and failure by Democrats at all levels, Republicans message of freedom and accountability resonates with all Wisconsinites, writes Kelly in an email.

If history holds, the annual GOP convention will feature speeches from high-profile politicians like Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, who is up for re-election this year. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, businessman Kevin Nicholson, and State Rep. Timothy Ramthun all candidates vying to challenge Evers are also likely to give speeches. Kelly did not immediately respond to an email asking what speakers have been confirmed for the convention.

Kelly says that Dane, the second most populous county in Wisconsin, consistently delivers the third highest number of Republican votes in the state (behind Milwaukee and Waukesha). Thats true. In the last gubernatorial race, former Gov. Scott Walker received more total votes in Dane County than he did in the smallest 20 counties in Wisconsin combined. That, however, is more a reflection of the countys population than its politics.

In every statewide election since 2002, Democratic candidates have won Dane County by more than 30 percentage points. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson was the last GOP candidate for governor to receive a majority in the county and that was 28 years ago. The last Republican presidential candidate to win Dane was Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Scott Grabins, chair of the Republican Party of Dane County, says this will not be the first state party annual convention in Dane County. But it has been awhile, probably decades.

Its still very important for Republicans to have a presence in Dane County. Certainly over the last several years, weve seen statewide [Republican] candidates give it more attention and they have spent more time here, says Grabins. We have a lot of challenges in terms of winning local races. But in statewide elections, how a candidate performs in Dane County can make or break the campaign.

One could argue that the huge turnout in Dane County in the 2020 presidential election was critical to delivering the state to Biden, who won Wisconsin by a little more than 20,000 votes. When Trump won Wisconsin in 2016, Hillary Clinton received around 218,000 votes in Dane County. Four years later Biden received 260,000.

In general, Dane County has been trending more blue even in non-presidential election years. Walker received 31 percent of the vote in Dane County in 2010 when he ran against former Milwaukee Tom Barrett and 30 percent in 2010 when he beat back a recall effort. In 2014, when he ran against Democrat Mary Burke, he received 29 percent of the vote; in 2018, when he lost to Evers, he received 24 percent.

The only Wisconsin county which gives Democrats a higher percentage of the vote is tiny Menominee County. Its the states least populous county and its borders are essentially aligned with the Menominee peoples tribal borders. Seventy-seven percent of Menominee voters cast a ballot for Evers in 2018; 82 percent of the county voted for Biden. However with roughly 1,600 total voters in Menominee County, there are individual wards in Madison that crank out more votes than that.

Despite the consistent Democratic gains in Dane County, Grabins says Republicans havent given up on organizing locally.

Our county party is one of the most active in the state. We hold [events] every month that draw 60 to 100 people. Theres a lot of energetic Republicans in Dane County who are focused on the kind of trickle-up elections that make us competitive in statewide races and help with top-of-the-ticket victories, says Grabins. It was time for the state party to bring the convention to Dane County. We play an important role in helping elect Republicans all over Wisconsin.

Devin Remiker, executive director of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, tells Isthmus by email that he doesnt expect Dane County to roll out the red carpet for the Republicans arriving for the state convention in May.

The residents of Dane County will be less than thrilled to welcome the Republican Party of Wisconsin, which is still working overtime to try to invalidate their lawfully cast votes in their ongoing efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, writes Remiker. As Wisconsin Republicans in-fighting continues, its clear they have no plan to deliver for Wisconsinites.

State Dems have selected La Crosse for their annual convention in late June. Unlike Dane County, western Wisconsin is far less politically lopsided.

La Crosse is a thriving city in a critically important part of our state. The 3rd Congressional District voted for both Ron Kind and Donald Trump in 2020 and both Tony Evers and Tammy Baldwin in 2018, writes Remiker. We know how important this area is, and were excited to gather in this crucial part of the state to show how Democrats are moving Wisconsin forward.

Wisconsins battleground status in presidential elections could bring both the Democratic National Convention and the Republican National Convention to Milwaukee in 2024. Neither party has made a final decision yet. But Milwaukee is a frontrunner for the Democrats because the city missed out on truly hosting the convention in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Republicans have named Milwaukee and Nashville as finalists for its 2024 convention.

Whether its the city of Milwaukee or Dane County, Grabins says Wisconsin Republicans are sending a signal that were alive and well even in liberal areas.

We are doing our best to compete here, just like we are anywhere else in the state, says Grabins. Were not afraid to come to Dane County and we have just as much right to campaign here as anyone else.

View original post here:
Wisconsin Republican convention heads to 'heart of the beast' - Isthmus

Garrett Soldano released a pretty strange campaign ad last fall. The only words spoken in it came from a voice aggressively asking, WHO? and a chorus twice chanting WE THE PEOPLE! in response. The rest of the ad was 45 seconds of footage of Soldano firing various weapons at a gun range, set to a heavy, looping guitar riff.

Soldano is not running for sheriff, or even for a seat in the state House. Hes a Republican running to become the next governor of Michigan.

Soldanos ad may have been absurd, but it wasnt atypical. Republican candidates are turning to guns, guns, guns in a very big way ahead of the midterms, serving their potential constituents with a torrent of campaign ads, Instagram posts, and even Christmas cards of themselves toting and firing deadly weapons. Conservatives using guns in campaign ads is nothing new, of course, but the way in which theyre being used in the wake of Trumps term in office and particularly in the wake the violent attack on the Capitol that ended it portends a dark future for the party, and if it regains control of Washington, D.C., for the nation.

Ron Filipkowski, a researcher who tracks right-wing activity online and has highlighted several examples of Republicans going gun crazy in their campaign ads, says the use of guns in ads has absolutely ratcheted up this primary cycle compared to 2020 and 2018.

I started noticing it and was like, Whats going on?' he says. I think its almost like the [Lauren] Boebert-, [Marjorie Taylor] Greene-ization of the whole America First movement thats driving the Republican Party now. Its those candidates who are the ones that are doing it. I feel like the establishment candidates kind of feel like they have to do it too, now.

Boebert built her successful 2020 campaign largely around guns, and last year released an ad promising to carry a Glock on Capitol Hill. Greene in an ad for her 2020 campaign cocked an assault rifle as she warned antifa terrorists to stay out of her district, and last fall blew up a Prius with a 50-caliber rifle. Establishment Republicans like Lindsey Graham, who last year released a video of himself at a shooting range in khakis, are struggling to keep up, but the point is that they feel like they need to try. This is what the party is now.

Filipowski says he really started noticing the uptick in gun-centric ads, which were often the first big campaign rollout ads candidates would release, last fall. They havent stopped since.

Heres Max Miller, a former Trump aide running for the Ohio U.S. House seat left vacant by retiring Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, talking about using a rifle to protect our country.

Heres Georgia U.S. House candidate Michael Collins blowing up Nancy Pelosis Plan for America before hopping in a big rig, throwing a football, and firing another assault rifle for good measure. Im not afraid to say I was pro-Trump from Day One, he adds.

Heres Blake Masters, whos running for Senate in Arizona, with an intimate and frankly, creepy ad about his love for his Walther PPK and silencers.

Masters, a venture capitalist and favorite of Trump-loving billionaire Peter Thiel, has featured guns prominently throughout his primary campaign. He responded to President Bidens promise on Monday to crack down on ghost guns, which are homemade and untraceable, by tweeting a picture of a ghost gun he recently built himself. Very legal & very cool, he wrote.

Our founders built their own guns, Masters added. They intended us to as well its the ultimate political act, a liberty the 2A protects. Technology will not stop. With 3D printing, this is going to get easier year after year. Ill be a political check on gun control, but the technological check is inevitable.

Masters isnt the only Republican to cry that the Second Amendment is under assault while vowing to scale back gun reform policy Florida U.S. House candidate Anthony Sabatini even responded to Bidens address on Tuesday by calling for the abolition of the ATF and if the party takes back Congress in November they are likely to attempt to pass a slew of pro-gun legislation, from clearing the way for nationwide open carry to doing away with background checks. Far-right politicians in primaries are licking the boots of gun lobbyists, Moms Demand Action founder Shannon Watts told Rolling Stone in an email on Tuesday. Theyll certainly continue to do so once in office.

But theres something more insidious behind the sudden rash of pro-gun ads than protecting the Second Amendment. Its a visual reminder that the party believes Jan. 6 was a good thing, that the attack on the Capitol was a valiant effort, and that Republicans deserve candidates who is willing to implicitly or explicitly condone the use of violence to reclaim a bygone version of the United States theyve seen slip through their fingers under Democratic leadership to make America great again.

Its an extremist movement, says Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist and co-founder of The Lincoln Project. The GOP base, at least a wide swath of it, has been radicalized. There are very few things you can do to demonstrate youre more extreme and intense on tribal issues than to insinuate, tacitly or overtly, violence, that you are willing to fight for the cause. Thats what it is. Its not a Second Amendment issue. Its saying, Im this intense. Im this extreme. Im willing to go to these measures to fight for our tribe. Thats what its all about.

As Idaho gubernatorial candidate Janice McGeachin put it in an ad released Monday in which she fires an assault rifle, the Second Amendment wasnt ratified into the Bill of Rights so we could bird hunt.

The Second Amendment has always been a defensive posture, Madrid continues. Its always been dont take my guns. What we are moving into now is something foundationally different. Its now advocating that gun ownership and bearing arms is a virtue. Its not a right. Its almost an obligation. Theres a desire to see a society that is centralized on this type of weaponry. Theres a lot of paranoia involved here, but its also demonstrative of a society that a lot of these members feel is out of their control. They feel quote unquote America is gone. Its behind them. Its already been taken, and the only way to defend themselves from whatever that boogeyman is, is to have a stockpile of gold bullion, canned goods, and a ton of weaponry.

Madrid, like Filipkowski, acknowledges that the use of guns in political ads is growing, and that by 2024 Republicans are going to be blowing stuff up. Brandishing weapons and leaning into gun culture is viewed as revolutionary, and by revolutionary I mean, in their minds, the most virtuous sense, as defenders of quote unquote America, he says. Theres the 1776 rhetoric and theres the patriot rhetoric, and theres the American flag thats always waved. Its this absurd definition of what American is, and its getting more and more extreme in the Republican Party every election cycle.

The fact that its getting so extreme among Republicans, and Republicans alone, may lead some to believe that the tenor of the ads could calm down a little ahead of the general election, when candidates typically pivot to a more moderate message in an effort to court a wider swath of voters.

In last years gubernatorial election in Virginia, Glenn Youngkin hammered guns, abortion, and his love of Trump during the Republican primary, but eased up on guns and abortion and distanced himself from Trump ahead of the general election, which he went on to win convincingly over Democrat Terry McAullife.

But this new fixation on guns is not coming from savvy billionaires like Youngkin. Its coming from the hardcore MAGA set, and not only is it likely to stick around beyond the primaries, its likely hardwired into the DNA of a party now driven by extremism, conspiracy, and a belief that violence is a legitimate tool to achieve desired political outcomes.

Its not going to change, Madrid says. This is not this is not a primary tactic. This is mainstream Republicanism. So once you start to move off of that, you will start to lose the intensity of the support and turnout you need from the shrinking Republican base. Radicalization is the goal. This is about saying Im willing to go to arms to overthrow whats here or whats coming. Im willing to be violent in that cause. Its not a small fringe group. These people are winning Republican primaries.

Continued here:
The Real Reason Republicans Are Loading Their 2022 Campaign Ads With Guns - Rolling Stone

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There is an old saying in politics. Under promise on the campaign trail and then over deliver when you govern.

Its only mid-April. But House Republicans are certainly promising voters a great deal. In fact, Republicans are increasingly cocky about their chances of flipping the House back to GOP control. Many Republicans are pledging to voters a laundry list of both policy priorities and score-settling should they emerge in the majority after this falls midterms.

"Were going to (be in power) if we get the majority of the American people to put us there," boasted Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, on Fox News.

OHIO GOP SENATE CONTENDER TIMKEN TAKES AIM AT BIDEN'S 'RUNAWAY INFLATION' IN NEW AD

Lets fillet Jordans statement a bit.

Democrats certainly face a host of electoral problems right now. History runs against them. The party of the president almost always loses seats in the first midterm of a presidency. The modern exceptions are 2002 (the first election after 9/11) and 1934. The moribund poll numbers of President Biden are suppressing the Democrats chances of holding onto the House. Inflation, gas prices, the economy and border security are significant issues for Democrats. Contrary to early concerns, Democrats may hold a minor edge over the GOP when it comes to redistricting. But if voters went to the polls today, GOPers would only have to flip seven seats to seize the majority.

In 2020, Democrats collected 77.5 million votes in House contests. The Republicans: 72.7 million votes. Still Republicans gained 14 seats and came within a whisker of unexpectedly winning the House. Democrats reclaimed the House in the 2018 midterms, pocketing 60.5 million voters compared to 50.8 million GOP votes and capturing 41 seats.

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But the party with the most votes doesnt always prevail when it comes to control of the House. Thats because one party may run up the scoreboard in a deeply blue or red district, winning with say 75% or 80% of the vote. By contrast, the other party may cling to a few seats in battleground districts by just a point or less.

A good example of that came in 2012. Democrats got shellacked in the 2010 midterm elections, losing the House and coughing up a staggering 63 seats. Voters returned President Obama to the White House in 2012. Democrats didnt get the House back in 2012 although they gained eight seats. But Democratic House candidates scored a narrow victory over Republican candidates. Republicans pocketed 58.2 million House votes. Democrats scored 59.6 million House votes. A 1.1 percentage point edge for the losing party.

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But the trick is to win more seats in the House, not a majority of aggregate votes. Midterm elections are "base vote" elections. Democrats benefited in 2018 because former President Trump wasnt on the ballot. Many voters cast their ballots in the Democratic column as a repudiation of the former president and GOP policies. Democrats won the House consistent with the historical, midterm election for a first-term president.

Former President Donald Trump speaking at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, in July 2021. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)

So, its easy to see why Republicans are bullish if not braggadocios about their chances in November.

An overpromise?

Maybe. The possibility that the House of Representatives may be in play in 2020 was on no ones radar two years ago overshadowed by the pandemic and the hurly-burly of the presidential race. Few astute political observers believe Democrats will hold the House majority in 2023. But they also know that controversial candidates could jeopardize the Republicans chances.

DEMOCRATS' 2022 MIDTERM ELECTION SCARE TACTICS: THIS DESPERATE MOVE WON'T SAVE THEM

Democrats held the House for 40 years from the mid-1950s until the historic 1994 midterms. Again, that first midterm of a new president didnt go so well for Democrats and President Bill Clinton. Republicans won the House in 1994, propelling Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., into the spotlight as House speaker. Many political analysts believed Republicans were in the best shape they had been in years as the midterms approached. Michael Barone, then of U.S. News and World Report and the main author of "The Almanac of American Politics," controversially predicted the GOP could win the House in 1994. Many other pundits and certainly Democrats scoffed at Barones soothsaying. But the voters proved Barone correct that fall.

So fast forward to present day.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in December 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

"Were going to win the majority," predicted House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., to Punchbowl News in late March. "And its not going to be a five-seat majority."

McCarthy has boldly prognosticated that his party would be in the majority for several months now. And if McCarthy is right, some Republicans will push the party to tick off a major checklist of campaign promises.

SCHOOL REOPENING MESS DRIVES FRUSTRATED PARENTS TOWARD GOP

Investigate Hunter Biden and his laptop. Check. Investigate the hamfisted withdrawal from Afghanistan. Check. Probe Justice Departments efforts to go after parents involved in school board meetings. Check. Explore the origins of COVID-19. Check. Go after Dr. Anthony Fauci. Check. Target Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for his handling of the border. Check.

"Give us the ability to fire (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., implored Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla.

Fair enough.

"And impeach Joe Biden," continued Gaetz.

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The Florida Republican wasnt done.

"Im going to nominate Donald Trump for speaker of the United States House of Representatives," added Gaetz.

In other words, there are some Republicans who demand more than others. Perhaps even bypassing McCarthy for speaker.

And what happens if a prospective House majority doesnt go as far as some GOPers would like them to?

Thats the problem facing Republicans and perhaps McCarthy specifically if he wishes to become speaker on Jan. 3, 2023.

MCCONNELL SAYS DEMOCRATS 'HEADED TOWARD A PRETTY GOOD BEATING IN MIDTERMS

"If Kevin McCarthy keeps reiterating the fact that he's going to bring the team across the finish line and they're going to get the majority, then I guess he's the one who gets to claim the credit. He's the one in all of the private meetings. He gets to say, I did it and I get to be the speaker," said Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University. "Weve learned that even if you end up overpromising and underdelivering, theres not much consequence for that anymore."

So impeach President Biden?

"If someone breaks the law and the ramifications (are) impeachment, we would move toward that," said McCarthy on Fox. "We will take the facts to wherever the facts go."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, alongside other Senate Republicans, speaking to members of the media on Capitol Hill in August 2021. (AP Photo/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades, File)

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., believes Republicans can also win the Senate this fall. But, there is little hubris from McConnell.

"Its a perfect storm of problems for the Democrats because its an entirely Democratic government. A Democratic president. A Democratic House. A Democratic Senate," observed McConnell. "Which leads you to the question, How could you screw this up? Its actually possible and weve had some experience of that in the past."

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And so the expectations are ionospheric this November for Republicans.

The historical norms mean the GOP stands a very good chance of securing a majority in Congress. But over promising is something to watch.

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Reporters Notebook: 2022 midterms and the Republicans confidence - Fox News