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House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy expects to be a happy chappy in November unless Donald Trump pushes him aside. Photo: Shutterstock

Whatever is bad for the current Democratic-controlled federal government of the United States is good for the Republican Party as it looks forward eagerly to this Novembers midterms. There is no landscape more inviting than a narrowly held trifecta for your opponents: Democrats will bear responsibility for the mood of voters troubled by a stubborn pandemic, a sudden burst of inflation, a dangerous unstable international situation, and the inability of the governing party to deliver on many of its ambitious promises. The underwhelming nature of the Democratic victory in 2020 (especially in the House, where Democrats lost seats instead of posting the gains they expected) makes hanging on to the trifecta very difficult and historically improbable, particularly given President Bidens poor job approval ratings, which have stabilized in the low 40s for the moment.

So its not surprising to see exceptional optimism emanating from Republican circles. According to The Hill, GOP strategists are now raising their own expectations and preparing for a wave that will sweep not only contests in highly competitive territory but those that could turn blue areas red:

This year, the first midterm after a presidents been elected with both houses of Congress, it sets up really well, said one GOP strategist with experience working in Colorado. And theres been nothing, literally nothing to date, that looks to disrupt a really, really positive environment for candidates running in red, purple and blue areas. Thats why the map has a really huge opportunity to stretch.

Well, theres the little matter of a Donald Trump, who threatens to take away some of the focus that typically makes midterms a referendum on the current presidents performance while also creating unnecessary primary fights that may not result in the strongest possible general-election candidates. And Republicans need to be realistic about the possible extent of their midterm gains if they want to target their resources effectively and avoid their own disappointing election. This isnt easy at a time when hype and spin and proclamations of impending total victory seem to be part of the GOPs DNA, partly thanks to the former president.

But the stretching of the map of competitive races does seem likely if the bad economic and foreign news continues. Add in the stalling of the Democratic legislative agenda in Congress and continued Republican interference with voting rights in the states and you dont have an atmosphere likely to produce strong Democratic turnout in November.

How far could Republicans reach? Pretty far, as The Hill notes:

Republicans have already begun allocating staff and money for ad buys and touting strong candidate recruitment in states like New Mexico and Colorado, which are not at the core of the midterm fight but could be caught in a red wave if it rises high enough. Connecticuts gubernatorial race and Washington states Senate election also fall in that expansion category, as do House races against some Democrats who saw double-digit wins in 2020.

Aside from the possibility of unexpected Senate and gubernatorial gains (not to mention the secretary of State races that Trump has been eyeing with bad intent), its the House that Republicans are most focused on given how close (five seats) they already are to a majority. The fact that 30 House Democrats are retiring this year (the most since 1992) is another strong omen, much like birds in flight before a big storm. As Punchbowl News reports, the head of the House GOPs campaign committee, Tom Emmer of Minnesota, is talking pretty big:

If we win 18 seats,its a larger majority than 1994, Emmer noted. If we win 30 seats, its larger than 2010. And I think the number is 32 but correct me if Im wrong If we win 32 seats, its the largest Republican majority in 100 years.

Now, that would be a wave! But as Emmer undoubtedly knows, big House gains in years like 1994 and 2010 created less than majestic majorities because they occurred when Republicans were deep in a hole going into the cycle (they had 176 seats prior to the 1994 midterms and 179 prior to 2010; they have 213 now). Thus Democrats had more exposure to losses because they held more marginal seats. A more reasonable, if still ambitious, expectation might be something like the 13 net House seats they gained in 2014. That would still make Kevin McCarthy speaker (unless some backbench House Freedom Caucusled revolt toppled him) but not with a majority much more comfortable than Nancy Pelosis today.

So Republicans currently have a wind at their backs, but a big win wont come easily to a party as extremist and sometimes chaotic as theirs.

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Republicans See Red Wave and Look to Make It Even Bigger - New York Magazine

INSURGENCYHow Republicans Lost Their Party and Got Everything They Ever WantedBy Jeremy W. Peters

When Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on the morning of June 16, 2015, there was little indication the event would alter American political history. Pundits dismissed Trumps chances. He was polling at 4 percent; the head of Fox News, Roger Ailes, suggested Trump was really seeking a job at NBC, not the White House.

But Trump did make an impression on Steve Bannon, a voluble conservative activist plotting his own takeover of the Republican Party. Watching the reality-television star deliver remarks from the Trump Tower food court to a crowd that allegedly included actors who had been paid $50 to hold signs and cheer, Bannon couldnt contain himself. Thats Hitler! Bannon said. And, as Jeremy W. Peters writes in this spirited new history, he meant it as a compliment.

Insurgency chronicles the astonishingly swift transformation of the Republican Party, from the genteel preserve of pro-business elites to a snarling personality cult that views the Jan. 6 insurrection as an exercise in legitimate political discourse. Peters, a political reporter for The New York Times, depicts mainstream Republicans surrender to Trumpism as a form of political self-flagellation. From 1969 to 2008, Republicans occupied the White House for all but 12 years. And yet one of the more peculiar features of American conservatism is that despite decades of Republican rule, many true believers grew embittered and resentful of their party. They thought it was run by weak-willed leaders who compromised and sold out once they got in power.

The outlines of the Republicans hard-right turn are by now largely familiar. What distinguishes Insurgency is its blend of political acuity and behind-the-scenes intrigue. Much of the books opening material revolves around the first national figure to channel the bases anger: the former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who might have forestalled Trumps rise had she chosen to run for president in 2012. Trump was sufficiently concerned about Palins potential to claim the title of populist standard-bearer that he invited her to Trump Tower in 2011 to size her up in person. He concluded that while she had tremendous political appeal, she didnt know what to do about it.

Trump, of course, did. Peters is a fluid and engaging writer, and as the narrative of Insurgency unfolds and Trump inevitably, irresistibly, assumes center stage, you almost cant help admiring as Bannon did the candidates raw, demagogic genius: Devoid of empathy, incapable of humility and unfamiliar with what it means to suffer consequences, he behaved and spoke in ways most would never dare. In one luridly fascinating section, Peters details how Trump defused the furor over the Access Hollywood tape by ambushing Hillary Clinton with her husbands accusers at the second presidential debate in St. Louis. The stunt came about thanks to a norm-shattering partnership between the Trump campaign and Aaron Klein, a 36-year-old reporter for Bannons website, Breitbart News, who tracked down the women and cajoled them into attending.

In the history of modern presidential politics, no candidate had pulled off such a ruthless act of vengeance in public, Peters writes. It changed the game, proving to Trump and his allies that there was nothing off-limits anymore. So pivotal was Kleins role in Trumps upset victory that Jared Kushner later told him, My father-in-law wouldnt be president without you.

Anecdotes like these make Insurgency worth reading, though its harder to say who would want to. The book contains too many examples of Trumps manifest flaws to appeal to MAGA true believers, but not enough revelations of outright criminality to satisfy veterans of the #resistance. With the specter of a 2024 Trump candidacy looming, the rest of us could use a break while we can still get one. He just dominates every day, Bannon told Trumps advisers in 2020, warning of voters exhaustion with the president. Its like a nightmare. Youll do anything to get rid of it. Easier said than done.

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How Donald Trump Captured the Republican Party - The New York Times

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A local South Carolina council member is ditching the Democratic Party and running for reelection as a Republican.

"Some things that I had looked at, I just don't agree with any longer," Dorchester County council member Harriet Holman told "Fox & Friends First" on Wednesday.

"One of the things was that I am just totally pro-life, and I am by for capitalism, I am for funding the police. Those things are what made me make my final decision," she told host Todd Piro.

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The retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel said she believes Republicans will grow their numbers in African-American communities.

"We're born into our families, and we kind of take on the trait of what our families are, and my parents were Democrats," she explained.

Holman noted since she retired from the military, she started getting more involved in her community. She saw policies she didnt agree with and decided to become a Republican, instead.

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"It wasn't an easy decision. I talked to family, I talked to friends, I talked to my constituents, and a lot of my family members are really Republican, as well. So it was not too hard of a transition at all," she remarked.

The Dorchester County council member added she is "very happy" with her decision.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 19: Michael Bloomberg attends the 2019 American Songbook Gala at Alice Tully Hall at Lincoln Center on June 19, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg wrote in an op-ed Tuesday, warning Democrats are "headed for a wipeout" in the midterm elections this November. His argument is that Democrats need to stop focusing on "political correctness" and "culture wars."

Holman argued that one of the biggest things Democrats should be focused on is inflation.

"[This is] the highest inflation we've had since 1982, I believe, and then we're talking about gas prices, which we may see a $4 gas price here in this year, alone. So those are the things that we need to focus on," she concluded.

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"Those are the things that my constituents are focusing on, those are the things that I want to change and help my constituents get through. We need to just help them get further with not having inflation being a huge part of their life right now."

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South Carolina Democrat switches to Republican Party: 'I am pro-life and for funding police' - Fox News

Amid high-profile debates over a range of K-12 school policies from mask mandates to the teaching of race-related issues a declining share of Republicans in the United States say they are confident in public school principals to act in the best interests of the public.

Around half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (52%) say they have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in K-12 public school principals to act in the publics best interests, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in December 2021. Nearly as many (47%) say they have not too much or no confidence at all in principals.

In April 2020, shortly after the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S., Republicans attitudes about public school principals were much more positive. At the time, around eight-in-ten Republicans (79%) said they had a great deal or fair amount of confidence in principals to act in the best interests of the public, while 20% said they had not too much or no confidence.

This Pew Research Center analysis examines changing public attitudes about K-12 principals in the United States. It is based primarily on a survey of 14,497 U.S. adults conducted from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12, 2021. Everyone who took part in the survey is a member of the Centers American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATPs methodology.

Here is the survey question used for this analysis, along with responses, and the surveys methodology.

Other parts of this analysis are based on additional surveys by Pew Research Center and The Washington Post/ABC News. Links to these surveys including their field dates, sample sizes and methodologies are included in the text of the post.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have also become less likely to express confidence in school principals during the pandemic, but the drop-off has not been nearly as steep as among Republicans and a large majority of Democrats still voice confidence. As of December 2021, around three-quarters of Democrats (76%) say they have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in principals, down from 87% in April 2020.

Overall, 64% of U.S. adults say they have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in K-12 principals to act in the best interests of the public, down from 83% in April 2020. Public confidence in a number of other societal groups and institutions has also waned during the pandemic, with especially notable decreases among Republicans.

GOP criticism of public schools is not limited to principals, a July 2021 Center survey found. In that survey, a majority of Republicans (57%) said K-12 public schools overall were having a negative effect on the way things were going in the country. Around three-quarters of Democrats (77%) said K-12 schools were having a positive effect. That survey, too, found growing GOP negativity about a range of societal institutions, including banks and financial institutions, large corporations, tech companies and labor unions.

So whats driving the growing partisan polarization around K-12 schools? Surveys by the Center and other polling organizations indicate that pandemic-related changes to school policies, as well as recent debates over school curriculums, may be playing a role.

In March 2020, when the coronavirus outbreak first struck the U.S., the vast majority of Republicans (85%) and Democrats (94%) said closing K-12 schools was a necessary step. But as the pandemic has continued, partisan disagreements about school closures have become more pointed.

In a survey this past January when the omicron variant was spreading rapidly and some schools were again closing their doors Republican K-12 parents were much more likely than Democratic parents (55% vs. 26%) to favor schools providing in-person only instruction. Democratic parents were more likely than Republican ones (64% vs. 39%) to favor a mix of in-person and online instruction.

In the same survey, Republican and Democratic parents also differed over the factors that should be given a lot of consideration when deciding whether to keep K-12 schools open for in-person instruction. GOP parents were more likely than Democratic parents to say a lot of consideration should be given to students academic progress and their emotional well-being, while Democratic parents were more likely than Republicans to say a lot of consideration should be given to the risks that the coronavirus posed to students and teachers.

Mask mandates have also been a flashpoint in some school districts. While Pew Research Center has not recently polled about mask mandates in schools, there have long been wide partisan divides in views of masking more generally. This past January, Republicans were 40 percentage points less likely than Democrats (39% vs. 79%) to say they had worn a mask or face covering in stores and other businesses all or most of the time in the prior month.

Debates over school curriculums may be having an effect on Republicans satisfaction with public schools as well.

In a Washington Post/ABC News survey in November 2021, seven-in-ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents compared with around a quarter of Democrats and Democratic leaners (26%) said parents should have a lot of say in what their childs school teaches. Democrats were about twice as likely as Republicans (45% vs. 21%) to say parents should have some say in what their childs school teaches.

While partisan differences over K-12 schools may have grown wider during the pandemic, Republicans and Democrats had disagreements over some aspects of public schooling well before the pandemic. In a May 2019 survey by the Center, Republicans were less likely than Democrats to say K-12 schools were open to a wide range of opinions and viewpoints. Around half of Republicans (49%) said K-12 schools were very or somewhat open in this regard, compared with around seven-in-ten Democrats (71%).

Other survey questions related to K-12 schools have found no change in attitudes during the pandemic. In an October 2021 Center survey, only around one-in-five adults (22%) said the quality of K-12 education in the public schools was a major problem in their local community, unchanged from 2018. In that survey, Republicans were slightly less likely than Democrats (19% vs. 23%) to say the quality of K-12 education was a major problem where they live.

Continued here:
Republicans' confidence in K-12 principals has fallen sharply during the pandemic - Pew Research Center

JEFFERSON CITY With seven Republicans comprising a crowded primary across the aisle, a Democrat has filed to run for Congress in southwest Missouri.

John Woodman, who runs a small technical support business and was once a Christian missionary, isn't a lifetime member of the party, he said in a Tuesday interview. He was a Republican for 35 years until he took on a new personal project in 2016, spending the next five years developing a learning course called "How We Fix America."

"I would actually encourage people not just to vote for me, but to leave the Republican Party and join the Democratic Party, because the Republican Party has not been serving us well," Woodman said. "It's not been serving us well in southwest Missouri and it's not been serving us well nationally."

He argues that the GOP has no plan to address what he views as the United States' three major issues a "warped economy," a "rigged political system" and "the lack of a shared vision that's based on truth."

"A lot of this is fed by misinformation and by demagoguery, and I don't see Republicans working seriously to solve this issue," Woodman said. "In fact, in some instances, Republicans are making this worse."

Woodman, who has lived in Springfield for 20 years,said he believes the Democratic Party is the best umbrella under which to focus on improving health care, education and the climate.

He pushed back on many Republicans' portrayals of the party as "socialist" or "radical," arguing that Democratic administrations "have been much better for the economy" and for job creation.

7th district race: Who's running for U.S. Senate, House in Missouri? Candidates file to run in 2022 elections

The only Democrat to announce for the seat thus far, Woodman will face improbable odds in southwest Missouri's 7th district. U.S. Rep. Billy Long, who is vacating the seat after holding it since 2010, won re-election in 2020 with almost 70 percent of the vote.

Across the aisle is a crowded GOP field including former state Sen. Jay Wasson, Sens. Eric Burlison and Mike Moon, Dr. Sam Alexander, Alex Bryant, Audrey Richards and Paul Walker.

Galen Bacharier covers Missouri politics & government for the News-Leader. Contact him at gbacharier@news-leader.com,(573) 219-7440 or on Twitter @galenbacharier.

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Democrat running for Congress in southwest MO left the GOP and wants others to join him - News-Leader