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On the evening of July 19, several dozen Republican donors gathered for dinner in a private room at the St. Regis Aspen to hear Nikki Haley deliver a speech. The former South Carolina governor had been invited by the Republican Governors Association, which was holding its typically drama-free summer meeting at the exclusive Rocky Mountain resort. It would be a prime platform for Haley to court 27 red-state governors as she lays the groundwork for a future presidential run. But when Haley took the stage, attendees noticed that Florida governor Ron DeSantis was conspicuously absent. According to an attendee, DeSantis was holding his own fundraiser 20 miles up the road in Basalt, Colorado. Ron was pissed he didnt get asked to speak, the attendee later recalled.

Welcome to the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

At this nascent stage, its common for prospective candidates to compete fiercely for donor dollars and Fox News airtime. But the 2024 contest is playing out like no other in memory. Thats because the race is either entirely wide open or over before it begins. The outcome hinges on the whims, grievances, and obsessions of one Donald J. Trump.

The 45th president retains a psychic grip on the MAGA-fied Republican base more than six months after leaving office despite two impeachments, the horrors of the January 6 Capitol riot, and nearly 350,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths. In July, Trump dominated the Conservative Political Action Committee straw poll with 70 percent of the vote. (DeSantis came in a distant second, with 21 percent.) Its a metaphysical impossibility that anybody, even a senator named Jesus H. Christ, could beat Trump in a Republican primary if he runs, said Michael Caputo, a veteran of Trumps 2016 campaign who briefly served as spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services.

The candidates know this. Haley, who served as Trumps U.N. ambassador, told The Associated Press in April that she wouldnt run if Trump did. Others, such as DeSantis, Texas senator Ted Cruz, and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, tell reporters theyre merely focused on the midterms. But just because candidates wont openly challenge Trump doesnt mean theyre not testing the waters in the event Trump doesnt jump in. If Trump doesnt run, youre going to have 2016 on steroids. There will be 25 to 30 people running for president, a prominent Republican said. Could the field include Tucker Carlson? Sean Hannity? Even congresswoman conspiracist Marjorie Taylor Greene? Anythings possible.

The race is entirely WIDE OPEN or OVER before it begins.

Given Trumps long history of turning will-he-or-wont-he speculation into a media spectacle, theres little chance hell declare his 2024 intentions until after the midterms at the earliest. I think that people will be very happy with my decision, Trump told me when we spoke in mid-August. He was on the phone from his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. Removed from office, his mood was relaxed and upbeat. I think MAGA is stronger than its ever been before, he said. Trump particularly relished New York governor Andrew Cuomos resignation, announced two days before. I thought he was a tough guy. Maybe he wasnt, Trump said.

Mostly, though, Trump seemed to enjoy watching his potential 2024 rivals being forced to anticipate his next move. Knowing Trump, hell dangle it right up to the New Hampshire primary filing deadline, a Trump confidant told me. Which means candidates are stuck waiting for Trump to get in or get out while they pretend not to be campaigning even as they knife one another behind the scenes. Its a holding pattern, a frustrated Haley adviser said. Its unlike any previous race.

After Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama in 2012, the Republican National Committee famously commissioned an autopsy to diagnose the partys problems with voters. The internal review produced a 100-page report that advised candidates to broaden the partys appeal to Hispanics, Blacks, and women. Three years later, that blueprint was blown up when Trump descended his golden escalator and labeled Mexican immigrants rapists. The Republican Party became a cult of personality, said Sally Bradshaw, a former Jeb Bush adviser who coauthored the 2012 RNC autopsy. (Bradshaw quit the GOP in 2016. She now runs an independent bookstore in Tallahassee, Florida.)

Republicans didnt even bother with a self-assessment following Trumps loss to Joe Biden. The reason there wasnt an audit this time is the people left in the party dont care about solving problems, Bradshaw said. If anything, the partys takeaway from 2020 is that the base wants it to become more Trumpian. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in May reported that 61 percent of Republicans agree with Trumps big lie, that Biden stole the election. A Politico poll in June found that 3 in 10 Republicans subscribed to the conspiracy theory that Trump will be reinstated as president.

In July, I called Roger Stone to hear his take on which GOP candidates are best positioned to inherit the MAGA mantle. Stone, after all, was the architect of Trumps political career, which began when Trump flirted with a presidential run in 1988 to promote The Art of the Deal. Its very difficult to fill Trumps shoes in the America First movement, Stone said. It cant be handed off like a baton. Stone also believes the 2024 primary will be the first Republican contest in memory that hasnt been shaped by Fox News. The rise of more strident MAGA outlets like One America News and Newsmax have opened new avenues to connect with the base. I dont think Fox will wield the same influence that they did in the past, Stone said. The most loyal and religious Fox viewers have moved on.

If it were up to Stone, Michael Flynn would be the partys 2024 nominee, which, Stone acknowledges, is highly unlikely. (Both Stone and Flynn received pardons from Trump for felony convictions related to the Mueller investigation.) Of the other potential contenders, Stone is most impressed with DeSantis.

The people left in the party dont care about SOLVING PROBLEMS.

Since being elected Floridas governor in 2018, the 43-year-old former congressman has deftly positioned himself as a mini-Trump. He rebuffed public health guidelines during the nadir of the COVID-19 pandemic and kept Florida virtually free of a statewide lockdown in 2020. In May, he signed a restrictive voting rights bill live on Fox News. And in June, DeSantis dispatched Florida law enforcement agents to Texas to secure [the] southern border. According to one recent conservative poll, DeSantis beat Trump with a 74 percent approval rating. (Trump scored 71 percent.) One former Trump adviser recently texted me a photo of DeSantis merch: a hat that said DeSantis 2024: Make America Florida.

DeSantis has also built a powerful fundraising machine. According to the Miami Herald, his political action committee raised almost $14 million in April, bringing its total haul to about $31.6 million. Hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin made a $5 million donation. DeSantis is the most valuable player this year. Hes Trump without the negatives, said Scott Reed, the former chief strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

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The Race to Inherit Trumps MAGA Base Is Already OnAnd the Knives Are Out - Vanity Fair

A hiring sign. Illustrated | iStock

It was true in 2020 and it's true now: We're not going to be able to fix the economy until the pandemic is brought under control.

The Labor Department reported Friday that employers added just 235,000 non-farm jobs to their payrolls in August lower than expected, and a sharp drop from June and July. The problem? COVID-19 has made a big, ugly comeback, hurting the retail and hospitality sectors in particular. "Delta's fingerprints are alllll over this report," economics writer Catherine Rampell said on Twitter.

For much of the early pandemic era, Republicans told Americans we had a choice between protecting ourselves from COVID or letting the economy thrive. Who can forget when Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick urged senior citizens to "take a chance on their survival" for the sake of the country's financial well-being? And then-President Trump continually railed against his own government's lockdown recommendations and the effect they were having on his administration's economic numbers. "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself," he said last year.

But the Delta surge is proving that it's impossible to disentangle the country's economic health from its health health. While some states and locales are reimposing mask mandates particularly in schools the lockdown era in America is pretty much over. People are free to conduct business as they like. Right now, with the risk of infection still lurking, they're clearly hesitant.

Ironically, it's probably Republican governors who are now holding back the economy. Many of them ended their states' enhanced unemployment programs early research shows that action didn't really increase employment, but it did cause a $2 billion reduction in household spending. And states like Florida and Texas are prohibiting businesses from requiring "vaccine passports" that would let customers know they're entering a (literally) safe space. "Why would you prevent people from enacting policies that give their customers the assurance, the confidence that they can walk into a business, and that they'll be safe?" asked one Florida state representative. Many customers have decided to stay home instead.

Story continues

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CLEVELAND, Ohio Ohio House Republicans said Wednesday that former Rep. Doug Green died after contracting COVID-19.

Green, of Brown County near Cincinnati, was a member of the Ohio House of Representatives from 2013 through 2020. He was 66.

Green was under treatment for coronavirus for several weeks, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Doug was one of my best friends in the Ohio House of Representatives, said former state Rep. Gary Scherer, a Pickaway County Republican, in a Facebook post. He was the former Auditor of Brown County. No Matter how late of a night we had in Columbus, he always made the 2+ hour drive home every night to help with family commitments. A great guy.

Greens wife Norma said in a Facebook post the family is making arrangements for a celebration of his life at a later time.

Ohio House Speaker Bob Cupp, a Lima Republican, said green personified capable, constructive and caring public service.

He had a great spirit, warmth, and cheerfulness and connected with people in a way that was truly special, and helped make him an effective leader and state representative, Cupp said in a statement. A personal trademark was a consistent use of something green in his clothing around the Statehouse. I will miss Doug.

Andrew Tobias and Jeremy Pelzer contributed reporting.

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Republican former Ohio state representative dies after weeks of being treated for COVID-19 in hospital - cleveland.com

Republican lawmakers gave credit to the oil and gas industry for a projected boost in revenue to New Mexico and called for legislators to support growth in fossil fuel development in the upcoming 2020 Legislative Session commencing in January.

The Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) last week announced revised projections to state revenue in that showed about $8.8 billion projected for Fiscal Year 2023 an about $1 billion increase from previous budget figures.

The August report showed projected revenue grew in the last three fiscal years, at about $8.05 billion in FY 2021 compared to the February forecast of about $7.2 billion and up to $8.1 billion in FY 2022 compared with about $7.5 billion predicted previously.

More: Federal oil and leases to resume in New Mexico, BLM schedules sale for 2022

Supporters of the oil and gas industry in the New Mexico Senate argued that funding increases from federal relief dollars amid the COVID-19 pandemic were a temporary boon, while support of extraction could mean a continued boon for the states bottom line.

While extraction saw one of the highest declines in matched gross receipts tax (mgrt) returns between FY 2020 and 2021, at about 32 percent, the LFC report showed the extraction sector still brought in about $4.5 billion in mgrt.

Matched gross receipts tax conveys the amount taxes and economic activity resulting from the industry.

More: Pipeline company grows Permian Basin footprint. Oil and gas market recovery continues

The report asserted the increase in oil and gas revenue could mean a boost to public services like childcare.

Strong recovery in the oil and gas markets are pushing severance tax and federal royalty collections well above their five-year averages, resulting in large transfers to the newly created early childhood trust fund, the report read.

New Mexico Sen. Pat Woods (R-7) who represents Curry, Quay and Union counties in eastern New Mexico, an area known for energy development, commended the industrys contributions in the face of cuts brought on by the pandemic.

More: Sen. Ben Ray Lujan visits Permian Basin, pushes to fund abandoned oil well cleanup

Amid the pandemic and downturn in the oil and gas markets, when the price per barrel of oil plummeted to less than $0 per barrel for the first time in history, a $2 billion budget surplus many credited the industry with generating became a $400 million deficit in the states budget.

Lawmakers subsequently convened a special session to rebalance the budget, and the market recovered to the mid-$60 range in recent months, meaning state revenue recouped instep.

Woods worried Democrats could seek to excessively spend the revenue.

More: New Mexico Rep.: Oil and gas communities must be valued in energy transition

What we see here is our state battling adversity despite the roadblocks of the past year, Woods said. Though I am encouraged about these new projections, I am concerned about how these excess revenue dollars will be spent.

Though oil and gas will continue to fuel New Mexicos economy, the infusion of cash from the federal government is only temporary. It is up to us as stewards of the peoples money to invest in the infrastructure that will put our state on the path to recovery and long-term success.

Sen. Crystal Diamond (R-35), who represents Dona Ana, Hidalgo, Luna and Sierra counties in southwestern New Mexico said she was concerned Democrats in Santa Fe would continue to support initiatives aimed at moving the state away from heavy oil and gas production.

More: Ozone pollution at Carlsbad Caverns comes from oil and gas. State readies emissions rules

She pointed to support from her colleagues across the aisle for a temporary pause on federal oil and gas leasing enacted by President Joe Biden upon taking office in January, as particularly troubling.

Bidens halt on new federal leases was recently blocked by a federal judge in Louisiana and the federal Department of the Interior this week announced plans to resume onshore leasing.

About half of New Mexicos oil and gas production occurs on federal land, and Diamond said a reduction in such activities could devastate the states economy.

It was disheartening to see Democratic legislators push for the demise of our energy industry when they supported the Presidents ban on oil and gas leases earlier this year, Diamond said. This massive influx of revenue is proof that Republican pushback was effective, and I trust it will remind my fellow lawmakers just how important this industry is to our state.

Until we get serious about job growth, diversifying our economy, and supporting small businesses, our states success will continue to rely heavily on our hard working friends in oil and gas country.

But the LFC report warned that New Mexicos continue reliance on oil and gas revenue could subject the state to drastic up and downturns in the commodity industry and shifts toward tougher regulations imposed on the industry.

New Mexicos dependence on the energy sector makes oil market volatility one of the largest, most significant risks to the forecast on the upside and the downside, the report read.

"Any changes to the regulatory environment for oil and gas production will affect New Mexico, since over half of the states oil and gas production occurs on federal lands and most of the remaining half occurs on state lands.

Adrian Hedden can be reached at 575-618-7631, achedden@currentargus.com or @AdrianHedden on Twitter.

See the article here:
New Mexico Republicans credit oil and gas for revenue boost, report warns of volatility - Carlsbad Current Argus

Every two years, Michigan Republicans gather on Mackinac Island to hear from state and national party leaders as they gear up for the next election cycle -- an event thats proven key for some gubernatorial candidates. But candidate Garrett Soldano, the partys current fundraising leader, wont be attending.

Hes a political newcomer with grassroots clout and views the conference as being for the political elite.

Im not part of the establishment. Im part of the people, Soldano said in an interview earlier this month, citing the high price of hotels on the island as one sign of who attends the conference.

Michigan Republican Party External Affairs Director Sarah Anderson said The grassroots are a large reason we hold this eventit is an opportunity for them to hear from our policy and decision makers about the best path forward for our state and our country, as well as a great time to network, communicate, and spend tome together.

She said the party is still working on its straw poll, a survey of attendees the party typically partners with a news organization on. The straw poll usually includes questions that end up ranking primary candidates for an important office.

The non-scientific poll doesnt always predict who ultimately wins -- for example, in 2015 those polled picked Rand Paul out of the field of then-presidential candidates. But in 2009 it did pick Rick Snyder, who went on to become governor, and in 2017 it picked Bill Schuette, who got the nomination but lost to Gov. Gretchen Whtimer.

As a rule, the party doesnt get involved in primaries. But Soldano sees the party as favoring one candidate.

I think the partys actions have been crystal clear, they are pushing another typical politician. And I dont see how the party straw poll wont be rigged, Soldano said.

He didnt name names, but former Detroit Police Chief James Craig is widely considered a frontrunner in the partys primary.

Craig will attend the event, a spokesperson said. Same for candidates Michael Brown, Articia Bomer, Ryan D. Kelley, Bob Scott and Austin Chenge.

Tudor Dixon plans to attend, but a spokesperson said she would not participate in a straw poll due to concerns it would be rigged.

The only candidate who did not respond to questions about whether he planned to attend was Ralph Rebrandt.

Bomer, who recently filed a candidate committee, described herself as coming from the grassroots. But she respects the Michigan GOP, she said, and particularly party Vice-Chair Meshawn Maddock, who came from grassroots activism herself.

If Im invited somewhere for gubernatorial candidates, guess what miss, Im attending, Bomer said.

The conference takes place Sept. 24-26 on Mackinac Island. Keynote speakers include RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel; U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas; South Dakota Gov. Kristy Noem and U.S. Sen. Lindsay Graham, R- South Carolina.

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Soldano skips traditional Republican conference on Mackinac, most other gov candidates to attend - MLive.com