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This month, for the first time since April, our tracker of public opinion around the coronavirus shows that the share of Americans who say they are very concerned that they or someone they know will become infected with COVID-19 is higher than the share who say they are somewhat concerned.

That rise in concern is understandable, too, when you consider the spike in new coronavirus cases that began in mid-June, especially in the South and West. Just this past week, California, Florida and Texas, along with a handful of other states, saw record spikes in fatalities.

And the fact that the geography of the virus is changing its no longer just a blue-state virus may mean behaviors and political attitudes are shifting once again. To be clear, there are still deep political divides in how concerned people are about the virus, but there are also some signs that Republicans may be growing more concerned.

For example, as many states started lifting restrictions in April, the share of Republicans who said they were staying at home declined, while the share of Democrats saying they were staying put remained roughly the same. As you can see in the chart below, the share of Republicans who reported staying home as much as possible has ticked up by at least 10 points since the start of July. The latest poll from YouGov/Huffpost to ask this question did, however, also show a decline of 4 percentage points from the previous week, so its possible that the changes in Republican behavior could be plateauing or declining again.

The YouGov/Huffpost polls show increased support for coronavirus-related restrictions, too. In early June, only 23 percent of Americans said there were not enough restrictions where they lived, but in the latest poll, that number had grown by 14 percentage points to 37 percent. That includes an increase of more than 10 points in every region except the Northeast, where the coronaviruss spread has slowed down. And the share of Republicans who believe there are not enough restrictions, while still relatively small, has doubled from 10 percent in early June to over 20 percent in late July.

These shifts are small, as Republicans still lag behind Democrats on both of these metrics. But its significant because it comes at a time when public approval of the governments handling of the pandemic has fallen to new lows.

According to our tracker, Trumps approval rating on his response to the crisis has steadily declined since April. That even includes Republicans, whose approval of how he is handling the crisis, while still high at 78 percent, has declined roughly 5 percentage points since mid-June, when cases began spiking.

Recent polls have also shown that Republican governors are getting lower marks on how theyve handled the pandemic, especially in hard-hit states like Texas, Florida and Arizona.

To be sure, Democrats are still more concerned about the coronavirus than Republicans, but that uptick in our tracker isnt being driven by just Democrats. Republicans are also showing signs of increased concern around the virus. Some of that may be because as the virus spreads to different parts of the country, more Republicans are coming into contact with it, which may change their perceptions of it. Take what an Ipsos/Axios poll recently found. While only 35 percent of Republicans who had no personal experience with the virus said they are either very or somewhat concerned about COVID-19, concern over the coronavirus rose to 51 percent among Republicans who knew someone who died from it. Additionally, more than half of Republicans who knew someone who died from the virus said they always wore a mask, while only 38 percent of those who had no personal experience with the virus said they always wore a mask.

And perhaps that nuance underscores something Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux wrote about for FiveThirtyEight earlier this month. Republicans and Democrats are divided on how they see the virus. But theyre less divided on the actual steps they can take to stay safe whether thats social distancing, trying to stay home more or wearing masks in public places. Its possible that partisan opinion on the coronavirus isnt entirely baked in yet.

According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker, 40.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 55.1 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -14.5 points). At this time last week, 40.3 percent approved and 55.6 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -15.3 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 40.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 56.4 percent, for a net approval rating of -16.1 points.

In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 8.3 percentage points (49.1 percent to 40.8 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 8.2 points (49.4 percent to 41.2 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 9 points (49 percent to 40 percent).

Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.

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Some Republicans Have Gotten More Concerned About COVID-19 - FiveThirtyEight

WASHINGTON When it comes to the new coronavirus recovery package roiling the capital, Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana could use some detective help from the F.B.I., which has unexpectedly found itself an unwitting accomplice in a legislative meltdown.

Id like to know whats in the bill, Mr. Kennedy, who is part of the Republican majority that wrote the measure, proclaimed Tuesday afternoon as he exited a closed luncheon where his colleagues met with top Trump administration officials to unsuccessfully hash out their deep differences over new legislation that apparently remained a mystery to many.

All you need to know about the state of that measure is that Mr. Kennedy said he had set his own staff to sleuthing through it to determine what it contained and what it didnt and would decide how to proceed from there.

Approval of any rescue remains a good ways off.

I have questions, said Mr. Kennedy, who might have been more vocal than others about his dissatisfaction with the legislation, the process that produced it and the strategy to pass it. But he was certainly not alone.

Much of Washington also had questions, like: Is any legislation going to pass? Can Congress do it before a scheduled summer break at the end of next week? What will the final cost be? Will tens of millions of anxious laid-off workers continue to receive extra jobless aid, and how much? What happens, politically and practically, if nothing passes? Oh, and will President Trump get his $1.75 billion to make sure any replacement for the decrepit, Brutalist-style F.B.I. building across the street from his luxury hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue stays in its prime location, in what Democrats believe is a naked ploy to ensure that a competing hotel doesnt take its place?

Mr. Trump suggested on Wednesday that he was not all that interested in the fate of the broader package that is consuming Capitol Hill though he blasted Republicans for their queasiness about including the F.B.I. money. After calling his own partys $1 trillion proposal semi-irrelevant on Tuesday, he told reporters that he preferred a pared-down measure to a sweeping economic stabilization package that would have to be worked out with Democrats.

You work on the payments for the people, Mr. Trump said Wednesday, referring to another round of stimulus checks for Americans, and the rest of it were so far apart, we dont care.

Congress is once again careening over a cliff this time with the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits that have cushioned millions of Americans from the blow of the economic crisis and there is more than a little Thelma and Louise feel to the whole situation. Republicans are nowhere near agreement among themselves, and the various legislative proposals introduced on Monday after a three-day delay do not appear to have anything near majority Republican support, let alone backing from Democrats who instantly attacked them.

I think its a statement of the obvious that I have members who are all over the lot on this, Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, told reporters after the closed lunch session. There are some members who think weve already done enough, other members who think we need to do more. This is a complicated problem.

He left it up to Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, to work something out with Democrats.

The Republican dynamic serves only to empower Democrats who will have to provide the necessary votes to pass any legislation in the House and the Senate, meaning the resistance from conservative Republicans opposed to spending more is, ironically, only going to increase the amount of money that must be in the bill to win over Democrats.

If it is going to be passed with mainly Democratic votes, it is going to be mainly a Democratic bill, acknowledged Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas and the author of the liability protections that Republicans insist should be in any final legislation.

Months ago, House Democrats produced their own $3 trillion bill, which is three times the size of the Republican legislation, and given the state of the Republican negotiating position, they are in no hurry to cede much ground.

I think we should just hold firm, said Senator Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland.

Republicans recognize they are going to have to make some concessions, though they are scrambling to do whatever they can to hold their own line.

Id like to keep it as close to the original number as possible, said Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, the No. 3 Senate Republican.

Democrats, typically the party described as being in disarray, expressed amazement at the disorder among Republicans, considering that they had months to come up with a proposal after Mr. McConnell in May had called for a pause in sending more federal dollars out the Capitol door.

In my many years of serving in this chamber, I have never seen a Republican majority or a Senate majority of any type respond to a national emergency in such a disorganized and disoriented fashion, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, said on Tuesday. They cant agree on one bill. They cant get 51 votes for anything that is comprehensive.

Updated July 27, 2020

Adding to the Republican unease was the focus on the spending for the new F.B.I. building. After being caught off guard that the money remained in the legislation Monday, Republicans from Mr. McConnell on down seemed very uncomfortable at having been drawn so directly into what appeared to be a concerted effort to use a large amount of taxpayer dollars to protect the business interests of the president.

Some visibly winced as they hemmed and hawed about why the money was included in emergency legislation, until Mr. McConnell said during a news conference that ultimately, he wanted provisions unrelated to the pandemic, like the F.B.I. funding, to go away. Other senior lawmakers gathered with him nodded in agreement, eager to be done with the Trump-induced controversy.

The president wasnt ready to relent, though, and told reporters at the White House that any Republican allies questioning the expenditure should go back to school and learn. He said the building was dangerous and should stay in its current location because of its proximity to the main Justice Department headquarters.

The F.B.I. dispute was only a symptom of a larger problem. Republicans have made cutting the $600 in added weekly unemployment pay included in the stimulus law enacted in March a central element of their approach. They have contended that the benefit is so generous it has discouraged Americans from returning to their jobs a notion that most Democrats reject.

As a substitute, they are proposing a system where recipients would receive an extra $200 per week a two-thirds cut from what they are getting now while state unemployment offices devise a system that would ultimately allow individualized payments capped at 70 percent of what they were earning before.

The problem is that some Republicans dont want to spend any money on new aid, while others doubt the state unemployment offices will be able to technologically adapt and provide the tailored benefits. Mr. Kennedy joked on Tuesday that some of those offices just got microwaves last week and that Congress should instead come up with an acceptable flat figure.

Even with the fate of the legislation so uncertain, many lawmakers still seemed optimistic that a deal would eventually be reached. With so many Americans suffering and an election so close at hand it appears to be one of those too big to fail moments when not delivering federal relief just doesnt seem like an acceptable outcome for those in power.

Still, given the current state of things, failure remains a real possibility.

Who knows, said Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska. Maybe this place is just crazy.

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Divided and Demoralized on Virus Aid, Republicans Ask, Whats in the Bill? - The New York Times

On Tuesday, The New York Times ran a piece summarizing a new paper by the political scientists Christopher Warshaw, Lynn Vavreck, and Ryan Baxter-King on the impact local coronavirus deaths might have on Republican candidates. Reviewing survey data from the Democracy Fund and the University of California, Los Angeless Nationscape project, they concluded that a doubling of local coronavirus deaths over the last 60 days makes voters between .22-.45% less likely to support Republican House candidates and between .3-.9% less likely to support Republican Senate candidates. They found too that a county coronavirus death rate at sixteen times the national average would imply a reduction of only about 3 percentage points in the vote margin for a Republican Senate candidate. These numbers might concern vulnerable Republicans hoping to come out on the right side of thin margins in November, but they should hardly terrify most who will vote on coronavirus legislation.

One might object that even safe Republicans presumably want the party as a whole to keep the Senate and the White House and prevent Democrats from taking power. But the notion that most Republicans care about the partys fortunes as much or more than their own careers seems dubiousif this was the case, they probably wouldnt be backing ideas that might cross-pressure and endanger their vulnerable colleagues to begin with. And the most Republicans can realistically hope for are at least two more years of legislative stalemate anywayits extremely unlikely theyll be able to take back the House. In a Wednesday piece chastising moderate Republicans who plan on voting against the party in November, National Review editor Rich Lowry couldnt come up with a single policy item Republicans should look forward to enacting in another Trump term.

Its worth thinking through what purpose Republican power in Congress actually serves. Most liberal and progressive commentators take it as a given that the Republican Party lacks a constructive legislative agendatheres no real interest on the right in building new programs and institutions that would productively address Americas problems. But what many still dont realize is that the Republican Party has no real legislative agenda of any kind at allnot even a conservative one.

It shouldnt be forgotten that Republicans controlled Congress for two years under Trump. Their record of major legislative accomplishments, even from a clear-eyed conservative perspective, was fairly unimpressive. Sure, there was a massive tax cut that also eliminated Obamacares individual mandate and some financial deregulation. But Republicans also failed to fully repeal Obamacare, the central policy promise theyd made for years, and they flubbed the dismantling of SNAP in the 2018 farm bill as wellboth thanks partially to Senate moderates. Speculation that the party might finally go after Medicare and social security in the last few months before the midterms subsided once it became clear that Republican lawmakers were actually considering nothing more than another round of tax cuts. Those never passed, and many Republican candidates wound up staking their campaigns on panic over the migrant caravan and other culture war material.

If the conservative policy establishment was deeply disappointed by any of this, they showed few signs of it. The Heritage Foundation declared in early 2018 that the Trump administration, with the aid of the Republican Congress, had already embraced or accomplished 64 percent of their Mandate for Leadership platform. For reference, Ronald Reagan had evidently adopted only 49 percent of Heritages recommendations at the same point in his presidency. None of this is to say that Republicans in Congress didnt do real damagethey did. But Democrats and the left had feared the full imposition of Paul Ryans agenda. That didnt happen. Instead, Ryan himself gave up and left Congress. The Roosevelt Institutes Mike Konzcal summed the situation up well in a March 2018 blog post. At best, the Rights policy voices are all ideas and no consequences, he wrote. More likely, they form a kind of entertainment industry that only is consequential to the extent it channels business interests or mass resentment.

They arent more consequential because as much as most Republican lawmakers might support broadly unpopular legislation, they cant actually pass anything without the support of moderate Republicans in bluer parts of the country or the kinds of moderate and conservative Democrats who happily and eagerly signed onto welfare reform a generation ago. As is often said, both are now endangered speciesthanks to partisan sorting, most of those figures have either lost elections, retired, or put themselves in step with the rest of their parties. So, Republicans bent on deconstructing the welfare state have turned from real legislative battles to guerilla attacksthe White Houses hit on fair housing regulations, for instance, or the ongoing legal campaign to undermine Obamacare. These are fights that often play out in courts, which is why Senate Republicans, as little as theyve managed to accomplish legislatively, have been so doggedly determined to confirm a constellation of conservative justices to the federal bench, in addition to the two Supreme Court seats theyve filled. Mitch McConnell has pushed through over 200 judges since 2017; not a single circuit court vacancy remains. That work has alleviated some of the pressure Republicans might have to hold the Senate.

But much of that pressure is also obviated, again, by the design of the Senate itself. It should be well understood by now that even if Republicans lose the White House and the Senateand of course, neither victory is assuredthe Democrats ability to pass Joe Bidens agenda will be limited by the Senate filibuster. Although Biden has suggested in recent weeks that hes open to ditching it to overcome Republican obstruction, the decision is ultimately up to Democratic senators themselves, and pivotal moderates still oppose the move. The filibuster aside, the conservative structural advantage in the chamber will probably be in good shape for some time. Adding Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia as states would help Democrats somewhat if the party were actually invested in making it happenanother very large ifbut analyst David Shor has estimated that a slight bias toward Republicans would remain in the Senate even if Democrats added six states, including the Virgin Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa, and Guam. If Biden attempts to circumvent Republicans through executive action as Obama did, Republicans can take solace in the fact that much of what he might try could be undone by another administration or, again, gummed up in court.

All told, if it seems like Republicans are acting as though the election doesnt matter, one should consider the many ways it actually doesnt for them. Moreover, its conceivable that many Republicans are quietly hoping for a loss at the top of the ticket. A Trump defeat might repair the GOPs standing with key constituencies Trump has driven away and will almost certainly encourage the political media to craft a redemption narrative for the party. Pundits and Fox News favorites on the Hill will attract attention and campaign donors drumming up rage at what Biden and Democrats in Congress are up to. Ambitious post-Trump populists and Trump critics whove been biding their time are both spoiling for a fight over the future of the party, which is to say a fight over the future of their respective careers. None of this should console Trump and the most embattled Republican candidates. But unless Democrats get serious about disempowering it for good, the Republican Party cant really lose.

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The 2020 Election Doesn't Really Matter to Republicans - The New Republic

More than ever, our lives depend on medical science to provide reliable testing, diagnosing and mitigation of a deadly virus.

Scientists in the United States and around the world are studying the coronavirus, working day and night to uncover the secrets of this disease and develop a safe, accessible vaccine.

This breakneck research is taking place because Republican Senators in recent years shortchanged public health funding, so now were playing catch up. Heres looking at you, Senators Gardner, Tillis, Ernst and McSally, all of whom are on record in support of slashing public health budgets.

We have experienced lock downs for months because Republican leaders shut down Americas international pandemic preparedness office in 2018.

This Republican Senate prioritized tax cuts for the rich rather than pandemic preparedness.

Doctors, nurses and other front-line medical workers incur great personal debt financing their studies...for the privilege of putting their lives at risk! But Republicans in Congress have been more concerned about denying the pandemic, politicizing aid and lining their own pockets.

As a Republican former member of the House, it pains me to witness how far our Party has degenerated. The GOPs denial of science - in this moment, has had at least a dual impact - needless loss of life, and economic disruption.

To ensure long-term economic prosperity, we must thrive in a healthy, safe environment.

And thats where scientists come in! Scientists rely on cold, hard facts!

Yet todays party denies science at everyones peril.

But the pandemic is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg when it comes to ignoring science.

Republicans are also ignoring climate science, and that puts our entire planet at risk, again. A climate economist recently said:

A good way to think about the coronavirus pandemic is that it is like climate change at warp speed. What takes decades and centuries for the climate takes days or weeks for a contagious disease.

We are already seeing the danger signs of climate change: unprecedented wildfires in the United States and around the world, record heat waves, rising sea levels, increased frequency of extreme weather events, some of which also increase the risk of numerous and unknown insect-borne diseases.

Republicans have done nothing to address this climate threat that scientists have long predicted?

Actually, worse than nothing: Republican Senators stand quietly by while the Administration recklessly withdraws from international climate agreements, hides critical peer-reviewed scientific reports, and dismantles current safeguards.

As the election approaches - beware of the posturing beside wind turbines, or doublespeak about innovation and all of the above.

Suddenly you see Republican incumbents scrambling, because they too look at the polls and realize the majority of Americans know climate change is another economic and health crisis ready to happen.

And Republicans have done nothing again, to prepare us.

As a founding member of Republicans for integrity, I rely on science and data to provide new pathways for anticipating and preventing problems.

Too bad the current Republican Senate didn't start that long ago, because crisis management is always more expensive than prevention.

As the old saying goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure!"

Lets apply the lessons of this pandemic to prepare for a slower but equally serious challenge: preventing climate change from ruining our nation, and our world.

Pete McCloskey is a Republican former United States Congressman who served from 1967 to 1983. He is a founding member of Republicans for Integrity, which brings together Republican former Members of Congress who place people before partisan politics.

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First the pandemic, next the climate: the Republican threat to science - Eastern Arizona Courier

As states and local governments struggle to address Covid-19, budgets are already spread thin funding all areas of service. Without necessary additional funding from Congress, we run the risk of delayed or contested election results, long lines and crowding that threaten the safety of voters and poll workers, and limited voting access to rural voters, seniors and veterans.

Through the support of Congress and President Donald Trump, state and local governments were granted $400 million to support elections staff this year. This was a much-needed step that has already made a difference, but its clear we are going to need more help.

The GOP-proposed relief package currently being debated on Capitol Hill did not include any additional funding to ensure a smooth election in November; we strongly encourage congressional leadership to heed the concerns of local election authorities and reconsider this decision.

Most Americans share our concerns. In a recent poll from President Trumps own pollster, 78 percent of voters agreed that it was important for the federal government to provide additional funding to state and local governments to cover the increased costs of conducting elections due to the coronavirus outbreak.

This years election will have additional costs whether a state predominantly votes in-person, by absentee or mail, or a combination of both. In most states, the $400 million appropriated earlier this year has already been dedicated to purchasing personal protective equipment for poll workers, stocking cleaning supplies for polling locations, increasing poll worker compensation and covering higher mailing costs due to an uptick in voters choosing to vote absentee.

An election worker helps a person voting from her car submit a ballot on the campus of Brigham Young University. | George Frey/Getty Images

We know first-hand that that $400 million was just a down payment on what we need. In Greene County, Mo., for example, more than $50,000 is needed just to recruit additional election judges and compensate all our election judges with hazard pay. Rochester Hills, Mich., already has high-speed tabulators, but significant increases in absentee ballots, letter openers, postage, envelopes, secrecy sleeves as well as increased staff hours to verify ballots will cost the city a minimum of $60,000. Even Weber County, Utah, already a vote by mail county, exceeded its June primary budget by more than a third $50,000 to ensure the safety of those who do vote in person on Election Day.

Many local election officials need even more significant investments to replace aging voting machines and shore up absentee ballot security, but federal funding has already been exhausted. In fact, a study from the R Street Institute found that the election support provided by the CARES Act only covered a small fraction from 10 to 18 percent in states analyzed of what is required.

During the recent primary season, we saw what can happen when election officials are not given sufficient support. In Wisconsin, where the states Elections Commission reported four times as many absentee ballot requests compared to 2016, many voters did not receive their requested ballots in time. In Georgia, polling places were consolidated or moved last-minute when officials couldnt get enough poll workers. This, along with widespread issues with voting machines, resulted in long lines. Some voters waited hours to cast their ballots, and polling locations stayed open long after they were set to close.

America has held elections during wars, depressions and pandemics. And during each, we have risen to the challenge. A fair and accurate election has perhaps never been more important than in this moment. Congress and the president cannot risk compromising our elections by underfunding state and local election authorities during these unusual and challenging times. Doing so would undercut our ability to properly administer the election and threaten the foundation of our democracy.

We respectfully ask Congress to appropriate an additional round of funding with no policy or state matching strings attached. This will ensure elections can proceed forward and local election authorities can prevent harmful election scenarios that could cast doubt in the mind of voters as to the legitimacy of the election outcome.

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Opinion | Were Republican Election Officials, and We Are Worried - Politico