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On Tuesday, The New York Times ran a piece summarizing a new paper by the political scientists Christopher Warshaw, Lynn Vavreck, and Ryan Baxter-King on the impact local coronavirus deaths might have on Republican candidates. Reviewing survey data from the Democracy Fund and the University of California, Los Angeless Nationscape project, they concluded that a doubling of local coronavirus deaths over the last 60 days makes voters between .22-.45% less likely to support Republican House candidates and between .3-.9% less likely to support Republican Senate candidates. They found too that a county coronavirus death rate at sixteen times the national average would imply a reduction of only about 3 percentage points in the vote margin for a Republican Senate candidate. These numbers might concern vulnerable Republicans hoping to come out on the right side of thin margins in November, but they should hardly terrify most who will vote on coronavirus legislation.

One might object that even safe Republicans presumably want the party as a whole to keep the Senate and the White House and prevent Democrats from taking power. But the notion that most Republicans care about the partys fortunes as much or more than their own careers seems dubiousif this was the case, they probably wouldnt be backing ideas that might cross-pressure and endanger their vulnerable colleagues to begin with. And the most Republicans can realistically hope for are at least two more years of legislative stalemate anywayits extremely unlikely theyll be able to take back the House. In a Wednesday piece chastising moderate Republicans who plan on voting against the party in November, National Review editor Rich Lowry couldnt come up with a single policy item Republicans should look forward to enacting in another Trump term.

Its worth thinking through what purpose Republican power in Congress actually serves. Most liberal and progressive commentators take it as a given that the Republican Party lacks a constructive legislative agendatheres no real interest on the right in building new programs and institutions that would productively address Americas problems. But what many still dont realize is that the Republican Party has no real legislative agenda of any kind at allnot even a conservative one.

It shouldnt be forgotten that Republicans controlled Congress for two years under Trump. Their record of major legislative accomplishments, even from a clear-eyed conservative perspective, was fairly unimpressive. Sure, there was a massive tax cut that also eliminated Obamacares individual mandate and some financial deregulation. But Republicans also failed to fully repeal Obamacare, the central policy promise theyd made for years, and they flubbed the dismantling of SNAP in the 2018 farm bill as wellboth thanks partially to Senate moderates. Speculation that the party might finally go after Medicare and social security in the last few months before the midterms subsided once it became clear that Republican lawmakers were actually considering nothing more than another round of tax cuts. Those never passed, and many Republican candidates wound up staking their campaigns on panic over the migrant caravan and other culture war material.

If the conservative policy establishment was deeply disappointed by any of this, they showed few signs of it. The Heritage Foundation declared in early 2018 that the Trump administration, with the aid of the Republican Congress, had already embraced or accomplished 64 percent of their Mandate for Leadership platform. For reference, Ronald Reagan had evidently adopted only 49 percent of Heritages recommendations at the same point in his presidency. None of this is to say that Republicans in Congress didnt do real damagethey did. But Democrats and the left had feared the full imposition of Paul Ryans agenda. That didnt happen. Instead, Ryan himself gave up and left Congress. The Roosevelt Institutes Mike Konzcal summed the situation up well in a March 2018 blog post. At best, the Rights policy voices are all ideas and no consequences, he wrote. More likely, they form a kind of entertainment industry that only is consequential to the extent it channels business interests or mass resentment.

They arent more consequential because as much as most Republican lawmakers might support broadly unpopular legislation, they cant actually pass anything without the support of moderate Republicans in bluer parts of the country or the kinds of moderate and conservative Democrats who happily and eagerly signed onto welfare reform a generation ago. As is often said, both are now endangered speciesthanks to partisan sorting, most of those figures have either lost elections, retired, or put themselves in step with the rest of their parties. So, Republicans bent on deconstructing the welfare state have turned from real legislative battles to guerilla attacksthe White Houses hit on fair housing regulations, for instance, or the ongoing legal campaign to undermine Obamacare. These are fights that often play out in courts, which is why Senate Republicans, as little as theyve managed to accomplish legislatively, have been so doggedly determined to confirm a constellation of conservative justices to the federal bench, in addition to the two Supreme Court seats theyve filled. Mitch McConnell has pushed through over 200 judges since 2017; not a single circuit court vacancy remains. That work has alleviated some of the pressure Republicans might have to hold the Senate.

But much of that pressure is also obviated, again, by the design of the Senate itself. It should be well understood by now that even if Republicans lose the White House and the Senateand of course, neither victory is assuredthe Democrats ability to pass Joe Bidens agenda will be limited by the Senate filibuster. Although Biden has suggested in recent weeks that hes open to ditching it to overcome Republican obstruction, the decision is ultimately up to Democratic senators themselves, and pivotal moderates still oppose the move. The filibuster aside, the conservative structural advantage in the chamber will probably be in good shape for some time. Adding Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia as states would help Democrats somewhat if the party were actually invested in making it happenanother very large ifbut analyst David Shor has estimated that a slight bias toward Republicans would remain in the Senate even if Democrats added six states, including the Virgin Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa, and Guam. If Biden attempts to circumvent Republicans through executive action as Obama did, Republicans can take solace in the fact that much of what he might try could be undone by another administration or, again, gummed up in court.

All told, if it seems like Republicans are acting as though the election doesnt matter, one should consider the many ways it actually doesnt for them. Moreover, its conceivable that many Republicans are quietly hoping for a loss at the top of the ticket. A Trump defeat might repair the GOPs standing with key constituencies Trump has driven away and will almost certainly encourage the political media to craft a redemption narrative for the party. Pundits and Fox News favorites on the Hill will attract attention and campaign donors drumming up rage at what Biden and Democrats in Congress are up to. Ambitious post-Trump populists and Trump critics whove been biding their time are both spoiling for a fight over the future of the party, which is to say a fight over the future of their respective careers. None of this should console Trump and the most embattled Republican candidates. But unless Democrats get serious about disempowering it for good, the Republican Party cant really lose.

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The 2020 Election Doesn't Really Matter to Republicans - The New Republic

More than ever, our lives depend on medical science to provide reliable testing, diagnosing and mitigation of a deadly virus.

Scientists in the United States and around the world are studying the coronavirus, working day and night to uncover the secrets of this disease and develop a safe, accessible vaccine.

This breakneck research is taking place because Republican Senators in recent years shortchanged public health funding, so now were playing catch up. Heres looking at you, Senators Gardner, Tillis, Ernst and McSally, all of whom are on record in support of slashing public health budgets.

We have experienced lock downs for months because Republican leaders shut down Americas international pandemic preparedness office in 2018.

This Republican Senate prioritized tax cuts for the rich rather than pandemic preparedness.

Doctors, nurses and other front-line medical workers incur great personal debt financing their studies...for the privilege of putting their lives at risk! But Republicans in Congress have been more concerned about denying the pandemic, politicizing aid and lining their own pockets.

As a Republican former member of the House, it pains me to witness how far our Party has degenerated. The GOPs denial of science - in this moment, has had at least a dual impact - needless loss of life, and economic disruption.

To ensure long-term economic prosperity, we must thrive in a healthy, safe environment.

And thats where scientists come in! Scientists rely on cold, hard facts!

Yet todays party denies science at everyones peril.

But the pandemic is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg when it comes to ignoring science.

Republicans are also ignoring climate science, and that puts our entire planet at risk, again. A climate economist recently said:

A good way to think about the coronavirus pandemic is that it is like climate change at warp speed. What takes decades and centuries for the climate takes days or weeks for a contagious disease.

We are already seeing the danger signs of climate change: unprecedented wildfires in the United States and around the world, record heat waves, rising sea levels, increased frequency of extreme weather events, some of which also increase the risk of numerous and unknown insect-borne diseases.

Republicans have done nothing to address this climate threat that scientists have long predicted?

Actually, worse than nothing: Republican Senators stand quietly by while the Administration recklessly withdraws from international climate agreements, hides critical peer-reviewed scientific reports, and dismantles current safeguards.

As the election approaches - beware of the posturing beside wind turbines, or doublespeak about innovation and all of the above.

Suddenly you see Republican incumbents scrambling, because they too look at the polls and realize the majority of Americans know climate change is another economic and health crisis ready to happen.

And Republicans have done nothing again, to prepare us.

As a founding member of Republicans for integrity, I rely on science and data to provide new pathways for anticipating and preventing problems.

Too bad the current Republican Senate didn't start that long ago, because crisis management is always more expensive than prevention.

As the old saying goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure!"

Lets apply the lessons of this pandemic to prepare for a slower but equally serious challenge: preventing climate change from ruining our nation, and our world.

Pete McCloskey is a Republican former United States Congressman who served from 1967 to 1983. He is a founding member of Republicans for Integrity, which brings together Republican former Members of Congress who place people before partisan politics.

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First the pandemic, next the climate: the Republican threat to science - Eastern Arizona Courier

As states and local governments struggle to address Covid-19, budgets are already spread thin funding all areas of service. Without necessary additional funding from Congress, we run the risk of delayed or contested election results, long lines and crowding that threaten the safety of voters and poll workers, and limited voting access to rural voters, seniors and veterans.

Through the support of Congress and President Donald Trump, state and local governments were granted $400 million to support elections staff this year. This was a much-needed step that has already made a difference, but its clear we are going to need more help.

The GOP-proposed relief package currently being debated on Capitol Hill did not include any additional funding to ensure a smooth election in November; we strongly encourage congressional leadership to heed the concerns of local election authorities and reconsider this decision.

Most Americans share our concerns. In a recent poll from President Trumps own pollster, 78 percent of voters agreed that it was important for the federal government to provide additional funding to state and local governments to cover the increased costs of conducting elections due to the coronavirus outbreak.

This years election will have additional costs whether a state predominantly votes in-person, by absentee or mail, or a combination of both. In most states, the $400 million appropriated earlier this year has already been dedicated to purchasing personal protective equipment for poll workers, stocking cleaning supplies for polling locations, increasing poll worker compensation and covering higher mailing costs due to an uptick in voters choosing to vote absentee.

An election worker helps a person voting from her car submit a ballot on the campus of Brigham Young University. | George Frey/Getty Images

We know first-hand that that $400 million was just a down payment on what we need. In Greene County, Mo., for example, more than $50,000 is needed just to recruit additional election judges and compensate all our election judges with hazard pay. Rochester Hills, Mich., already has high-speed tabulators, but significant increases in absentee ballots, letter openers, postage, envelopes, secrecy sleeves as well as increased staff hours to verify ballots will cost the city a minimum of $60,000. Even Weber County, Utah, already a vote by mail county, exceeded its June primary budget by more than a third $50,000 to ensure the safety of those who do vote in person on Election Day.

Many local election officials need even more significant investments to replace aging voting machines and shore up absentee ballot security, but federal funding has already been exhausted. In fact, a study from the R Street Institute found that the election support provided by the CARES Act only covered a small fraction from 10 to 18 percent in states analyzed of what is required.

During the recent primary season, we saw what can happen when election officials are not given sufficient support. In Wisconsin, where the states Elections Commission reported four times as many absentee ballot requests compared to 2016, many voters did not receive their requested ballots in time. In Georgia, polling places were consolidated or moved last-minute when officials couldnt get enough poll workers. This, along with widespread issues with voting machines, resulted in long lines. Some voters waited hours to cast their ballots, and polling locations stayed open long after they were set to close.

America has held elections during wars, depressions and pandemics. And during each, we have risen to the challenge. A fair and accurate election has perhaps never been more important than in this moment. Congress and the president cannot risk compromising our elections by underfunding state and local election authorities during these unusual and challenging times. Doing so would undercut our ability to properly administer the election and threaten the foundation of our democracy.

We respectfully ask Congress to appropriate an additional round of funding with no policy or state matching strings attached. This will ensure elections can proceed forward and local election authorities can prevent harmful election scenarios that could cast doubt in the mind of voters as to the legitimacy of the election outcome.

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Opinion | Were Republican Election Officials, and We Are Worried - Politico

SaturdayAug1,2020at12:00PM

And the winner is ... not Kansas, for sure

All of the Republican senatorial candidates and most of the congressional candidates seem to be screaming, "I love Trump the best." They criticize each other for not toeing the line with the Trump agenda.

Heck, one candidate put himself and members of his family on a drug hawked by the president as a coronavirus preventative. This is just one womans opinion, but I find these guys to be pretty scary.

Supporting Trump is supporting racism. Supporting Trump is supporting Putin. Supporting Trump means never disagreeing with Trump. I mean, like, never ever.

Whats going to happen when that day comes where Kansas Republican Sycophant finds himself disagreeing with Trump? Maybe its on a policy matter that hurts Kansas. They surely know by now what can happen when Republicans disagree with Trump.

So, whats the point of electing any of these men to represent their state or district in Washington? If its Kansas or Trump, Kansas will come in second. Even before then, how are the Republican nominees going to appeal to independents and maybe even some Democrats in the general election?

Being squarely in the hands of the most corrupt and incompetent president in our history probably wont sell well with a lot of us. Watching them squirm might be funny if it werent so serious to our countrys very survival.

Come on, fellow Kansans, we are better than that.

Terry Larson, Topeka

Read more here:
Letter to the editor: An appeal to Republicans - Opinion - The Hutchinson News

Hagerty largely ignored Sethi most of the race seemingly confident of his lead which his internal polls had at 17 points until earlier this month, when he abruptly went on the offensive. His recent campaign speeches and interviews are chock-full of attack lines. His campaign has dubiously accused Sethi of donating money to a group "bankrolling these rioters" in an ad with a wounded veteran telling voters that Sethi can't be trusted to defend the flag.

And Hagerty has been repeatedly mispronouncing Sethi's name as "Set-ee" instead of "Seth-ee" a year into the race, even in response to reporter questions with the correct pronunciation. Hagerty told POLITICO it was inadvertent, and he didn't know which pronunciation Sethi, the son of Indian immigrants, prefers.

Bill Hagerty is Thurston Howell III without the charm," said Jordan Gehrke, Sethi's senior strategist, comparing Hagerty to the out-of-touch millionaire in the '60s-era sitcom "Gilligan's Island." "Hes desperate. He should be. Sethi's own internal poll released earlier this month showed the race within 2 points.

Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.), who endorsed Hagerty, shot back that Sethis recent attacks were fiction. I think its despair, he said.

Rep. Chuck Fleischmann arrives for a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. | AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

The outcome almost certainly has no bearing on the makeup of the Senate, with Republicans strongly favored to retain the seat in November. But the battle is a window into the changing nature of the Republican Party, in which economic populism is in vogue, and race and identity have been thrust to the fore.

Many ambitious Republicans eager to position themselves as future leaders of the party have picked sides. Last week, Cruz endorsed Sethi, joining Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. Two other 2024 presidential prospects, Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, have lined up behind Hagerty, with Cotton's super PAC set to make its first 2020 expenditure to attack Sethi.

The brawl between the two candidates escalated when Sethi went after Hagerty over his support of Romney in 2008 and 2012, branding him as a "Mitt Romney Republican" scarlet letters in Trumps GOP.

Since then, the race has devolved into a gnarly thicket of misleading attacks: Sethi's campaign is running an ad that claims Hagerty is endorsed by Mitt Romney, even though the Utah senator hasn't endorsed and Hagerty has denounced him aggressively on the trail. Hagerty's team has accused Sethi of donating money to a group supporting the rioters, a distortion of a $50 contribution in 2008 Sethi made to a Democratic congressional candidate in Virginia that was processed by ActBlue, a party-aligned payment platform that has been used recently by Black Lives Matter-linked groups and other protestors.

Hagerty, a former private equity executive and Jeb Bush delegate, was the sort of business-first conservative who donated to both Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000, mirroring some of Trump's political donating habits before his presidential run. But in 2020, he has run on a message tailored for the Trump era, telling POLITICO that Black Lives Matter is an anti-Semitic and Marxist organization thats calling for the removal of the images of Jesus Christ. In a recent direct-to-camera ad, Hagerty declared: "Burn our flag or destroy a monument, you go to prison." He's leaning heavily on Trump's endorsement, which came in a presidential tweet.

I think the very first issue is supporting President Trump, Hagerty said. That's the big issue here in Tennessee. Folks in Tennessee want a candidate that's going to support they want a senator that's going to support President Trump and his agenda.

Sethi, a physician and political newcomer, has used $1.9 million of his own wealth to amplify his message bashing the economic lockdowns and racial justice protests. Church with too many people is a crime. Thousands of people protesting is not, went one viral ad. You got a problem with any of that? Youre a racist, and you want to kill Grandma.

Hagerty has fought back with his own barrage of ads, taking loans of at least $6.5 million to fund his campaign, according to FEC records.

They have both continued in-person campaigning during the coronavirus pandemic even as many campaigns have retreated. Masks are provided and encouraged but not required at Sethi's events, many of which were packed indoors this past weekend. We try to encourage social distancing but when your crowds are growing and growing, it becomes more challenging, Sethi told POLITICO.

Your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.

Sethi has drawn attention for his unapologetic and provocative TV ads that try to ride a conservative backlash to the recent Black Lives Matter protests. One accused liberals of not really caring about Black lives because Planned Parenthood places clinics near minority communities, and asking voters if they are sick of liberals saying watching American cities get ripped apart is a chance for you to examine your privilege.

While Hagerty has brandished his Trump endorsement, Sethi has pounded him for his links to Romney. Hagerty worked with Romney in private equity and served on both of his presidential campaigns, including as national finance chair in 2008. He defends his 2012 work as an effort to defeat Barack Obama, whom he calls the worst president of his lifetime, but condemns the Utah senator's recent politics.

Hagerty's response suggests Romney, who preceded Trump as the GOP's presidential nominee, has now become toxic in Republican primary politics. Hagerty frequently bashes him on the trail and told POLITICO that Romneys disagreements with Trump negatively impacted his own job as ambassador. Unprompted, he also called Romney irresponsible for marching with Black Lives Matter protesters recently.

Sethi was unconvinced.

I just think someone like that really has no place in the Republican Party anymore, and Bill Hagerty represents that, said Sethi. Now hes trying to hide it.

Romney hasnt officially endorsed Hagerty or weighed in on his behalf, other than saying he would "love it" if Hagerty entered the race last year, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Jack Johnson, the GOP leader in the state Senate who endorsed Hagerty, said if anyone would be concerned about his past relationship with Romney, it would be Trump himself.

I think he's convinced that any past support or relationship with Mitt Romney is water under the bridge and not really relevant right now because he's obviously 100 percent supporting President Trump, and vice versa, Johnson said.

Tom Ingram, a former Alexander chief of staff, said that even with declining national approval ratings, Tennessee is still a Trump all caps, underlined, italicized state, and Romney is a frontline Trump enemy. In large part because of the presidents endorsement, Ingram added that I think it would be a pretty stunning upset if Hagerty lost.

Hagerty has support from more than a dozen senators and has long-held relationships with Tennessee Republican officials stretching back years, both before and after he served as a top adviser to former Gov. Bill Haslam. Dozens of current and former members of the state legislature endorsed him alongside the president and his allies. Hagerty also rolled out endorsements from Vice President Mike Pence and Fox News host Sean Hannity in the closing stretch of the race.

As with most other Republican primaries across the country this year, support for and from Trump has been central, although a few of his endorsed candidates have lost in recent primaries.

Fleischmann, who has endorsed Hagerty, said Trumps backing was golden, and that the president discussed Hagerty and the race with him multiple times last year. Trump keeps regular contact with Hagerty: They spoke by phone last week, and the president held a tele-conference with Hagerty the week before to rally supporters ahead of early voting. Youve got a real primary here, and the other side is spending a lot of money. But Bill is somebody that will never, ever let you down, Trump said, adding that Hagerty was one of my earliest supporters, despite his support for other primary candidates in 2016.

Hagertys campaign publicly shrugged off the challenge at first from Sethi and another self-funder, perennial candidate George Flinn and released an internal poll earlier this month showing them up 17 points. But last week, the Hagerty campaign abruptly shifted gears and began pounding Sethi as Massachusetts Manny and trying to tie him to Obama because he applied for a nonpartisan White House fellowship in 2009.

On mispronouncing Sethis last name on the stump, Hagerty says the slight is unintentional.

I'm just not sure what his preferred pronunciation is, but there's nothing underlying it, Hagerty said.

How many years of higher education at Vanderbilt does it take to properly pronounce a last name?, Jeri Thompson, the wife of the late Tennessee senator Fred Thompson who has endorsed Sethi, shot back. For shame, Ambassador Hagerty.

Asked if he thought Hagerty was deliberately mispronouncing his name to make him sound more foreign, Sethi said, I think that [voters] can make that judgment for themselves.

Fast. Short. Daily. We take you behind the headlines and help you understand the biggest stories driving politics and policy.

The attacks have trickled down to the staff level. Hagertys campaign has bought Facebook ads hitting Sethis campaign manager and top consultant for calling Trump a Manchurian candidate and a short-fingered vulgarian during the 2016 Republican primary. Primaries are messy, said Chris Devaney, Sethis campaign chairman. Fact is, Manny supported President Trump in the primary, while Hagerty was supporting Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

The winner of the primary will likely face Democrat James Mackler, an Army veteran and attorney, in the general election. Like many Democrats, Mackler hit both GOP candidates for holding events during the Covid-19 outbreak.

Real leaders put the health and welfare of those they are elected to serve ahead of their own self-interest, he said.

Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.

CORRECTION: Due to an editing error, a previous version of this story misstated the decade in which the TV sitcom "Gilligan's Island" aired. It was the 1960s.

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The nastiest Republican primary in the country - POLITICO