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My almost 50 years of experience in politics has taught me that 11 months can be a lifetime in this business. What seems inevitable today can vanish overnight.

With that caveat and unless Republicans defeat themselves every reliable political indicator today points toward overwhelming Republican victories in the 2022 midterm elections.

President BidenJoe BidenUS lawmakers arrive in Taiwan to meet with local officials Biden meets with Coast Guard on Thanksgiving Five reasons for Biden, GOP to be thankful this season MOREs poll numbers are at almost record lows in every conceivable category. Vice President Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisFive reasons for Biden, GOP to be thankful this season CIA director says there will be consequences if Russia is behind 'Havana Syndrome' attacks Biden, Harris volunteer at DC nonprofit before Thanksgiving MOREs numbers are even worse. Inflation is rising more rapidly than any time in three decades. Violent crime is steadily increasing, especially in our inner cities.

The 2021 off-year elections were an across-the-board disaster for Democrats not just losing the three top statewide offices in Virginia but being routed as well in the suburbs in several states, which had been going progressively blue, especially during the Trump years.

Nassau County, N.Y., where I live, is a prime example of the steep declines suffered by the Democratic Party.

Located just outside New York City, with a population of almost 1.4 million, Nassau grew rapidly after World War II and is generally considered to be the nations first suburb. Overwhelmingly Republican for many years, it slowly began to tilt to the Democrats in the 1990s until Republicans there took deep hits during the Trump years. Democrats Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaMissed paperwork deadline delaying Biden nomination for FDA: report Poll: Democracy is under attack, and more violence may be the future No time for the timid: The dual threats of progressives and Trump MORE, Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonPoll: Democracy is under attack, and more violence may be the future Popping the progressive bubble GOP primary in NH House race draws national spotlight MORE and Joe Biden carried Nassau in the 2012, 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Going into this years elections, Democrats held three of the top four countywide offices and controlled local municipalities within the county including the town of North Hempstead, with a population of more than a quarter-million, and the city of Glen Cove, where the Democrats held the mayors office and all six council seats.

Yet, on Election Day earlier this month, Republicans once again swept Nassau not just winning back the countywide positions of county executive, district attorney and comptroller, but also electing the North Hempstead supervisor for the first time since 1989 and winning the mayors office and five of six council seats in Glen Cove. The issues in all of these races were taxes, crime and Joe Biden.

The results were similar in neighboring Suffolk County, where Republicans won back the county legislature for the first time in years and defeated a popular Democratic district attorney.

If the suburbs are the new national political battleground, Republicans seemingly could not be better positioned for the 2022 midterms unless they take their focus off of Biden, form circular firing squads, and attempt intra-party purges similar to those in which Democrats have engaged the past year.

Democrats want to make the next race about Donald TrumpDonald TrumpFive reasons for Biden, GOP to be thankful this season Giving thanks for Thanksgiving itself Immigration provision in Democrats' reconciliation bill makes no sense MORE instead of about Biden and congressional Democrats, which makes sense since Trump polls in most opinion samplings only marginally better than Biden.

Against that backdrop, it would be political malpractice to follow the crazy idea of Mark MeadowsMark MeadowsJan. 6 organizers used burner phones to communicate with White House: report Trump allies leaning on his executive privilege claims Jan. 6 panel subpoenas Roger Stone, Alex Jones MORE, former Republican congressman from North Carolina and Trumps last chief of staff, that Republicans should support Trump for the next Speaker of the House. If they were to do so, Republicans would be lucky to break even in next years midterms instead of picking up an expected 60 to 70 House seats and taking back control of the Senate, as many political analysts now predict will happen.

Similarly, it is madness for Trump and his supporters to be threatening primaries against House Republicans who voted for an Infrastructure bill which benefits their very competitive districts and which passed the Senate with 69 votes, thanks to the support of Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellFive reasons for Biden, GOP to be thankful this season Five victories Democrats can be thankful for Bipartisan success in the Senate signals room for more compromise MORE (R-Ky.) and other conservative senators such as Roy BluntRoy Dean BluntThis Thanksgiving, skip the political food fights and talk UFOs instead It's time for Congress to guarantee Medigap Health Insurance for vulnerable Americans with kidney disease Texas Democrat Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson announces retirement at end of term MORE (R-Mo.) and Roger WickerRoger Frederick WickerSenators: US allies concerned Senate won't pass annual defense bill Overnight Defense & National Security A new plan to treat Marines 'like human beings' Republicans press Milley over perceived progressive military agenda MORE (R-Miss.).

To win and to be able to govern, Republicans must be a national party not an ideological monolith.

It is time for all Republicans to follow the Reagan admonition to not speak ill of other Republicans. If Republicans are united and focus on the core issues of inflation, crime and Bidens incompetency, they have a golden opportunity to achieve historic victories for their party and for the nation in 2022. If not, Republicans will have no one to blame but their own ideological purists.

Peter King retired in January as the U.S. representative of New Yorks 2nd Congressional District. He served 28 years in Congress, including as chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security. Follow him on Twitter @RepPeteKing.

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Republicans seem set to win the midterms unless they defeat themselves | TheHill - The Hill

Never Trump was a label embraced by a handful of Republicans who deemed Donald Trump disqualified for office by some combination of his ignorance, his mendacity, his bigotry, and/or his authoritarianism. Almost no one still affiliated with the party or the conservative movement willingly uses the label any more. The label has largely been repurposed by Trump himself as an epithet against any Republican who dares utter criticism of him, however mild. Never Trump now serves essentially the same role in right-wing discourse as Trotskyite did in Stalins Russia an all-purpose accusation of secret disloyalties, which must be fervently disavowed.

In place of Never Trumpism, the Biden-era Republican party offers up figures like Chris Christie. Christie has put himself forward as the face of Republican resistance to Trump. But it is a form of resistance so tepid as to become almost indistinguishable from support.

Christie grabbed headlines by declaring he might run for president, and unlike other contenders, who have implicitly or explicitly conditioned their candidacies on Mr. Trump not running he announced he wouldnt wait for Trumps permission. Christie has lambasted Trump for continuing to claim he legitimately won the 2020 election. But he has restricted his criticism to the exceedingly narrow ground that voters are simply tired of hearing about the past: We can no longer talk about the past and the past elections no matter where you stand on that issue, no matter where you stand, it is over.

This is the perfect distillation of Establishment Republican thinking on this issue. They dont want to dispute Trumps election lies; they just want to drop the question. Trump, of course, has no intention of dropping the argument, which is why hes winning it: He is making a case that Biden stole the election, and hardly anybody in his party is willing to contradict him. (Indeed, Republicans are actively muzzling Liz Cheney precisely because she insists on refuting Trumps election lie.)

In an interview last night with Laura Ingraham, who spoke at Trumps 2020 nominating convention, Christie assured the Fox News audience that he had no disagreement in principle with the partys leader. He agreed that Democrats cheated in 2020 We know what happened in 2020, in instances where the voting laws were changed improperly and heartily endorsed state-level voting restrictions as an appropriate, forward-looking response.

Prodded further by Ingraham, he conceded that his disagreements with Trump were limited to matters of style and personality and that he fully supported Trumps substantive positions. Laura, he announced grandly, the line of supporting Donald Trump starts behind me!

Trump appealed to the Republican base, despite his many apostasies, because he promised to crush their enemies. His attack on the Republican leadership was, and is, ideologically incoherent they are too conservative or too moderate, too hawkish or too dovish, unable to pass a trillion-dollar infrastructure bill or shamefully willing to do just that but characterologically consistent. The other Republicans are timid and weak. He is ruthless and strong.

Trumps supporters see the party as riven along the same lines: not left versus right, but weak versus strong. When conservative pundits Jonah Golderg and Stephen Hayes quit Fox News over Tucker Carlsons weeklong orgy of paranoid January 6 revisionism, an American Spectator columnist assailed them for lacking the guts to get their hands dirty in the fight: Theres a certain brand of weak-sauce conservative pundit, many of whom have populated the airwaves of cable news channels and other corporate media venues, which depends for its sustenance on remaining acceptable to those who are not conservatives Lets hope that somebody is less acceptable and more willing to accurately assess the state of America brought on by two decades of weak-sauce conservatisms constant retreating.

The weak-sauce conservatism of Goldberg and Hayes is extremely conservative. What makes it weak is its unwillingness to undermine the voting process through chaos and violence.

Supporting Trump is fundamentally a choice between being willing to abide the rules of the democratic game and doing whatever it takes to gain power. Christie is trying to elide the choice. But in so doing, he is revealing the same weakness of character that Trump used to discredit the Republican alternatives. When the choice comes again between democracy and power, they will choose power.

Analysis and commentary on the latest political news from New York columnist Jonathan Chait.

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Chris Christie and the Death of the Never Trump Republican - New York Magazine

The Republican partys vilification of members of Congress who have criticized Donald Trump or supported bipartisan legislation is ruining America, New Hampshires governor, Chris Sununu, said on Sunday, adding another tacit voice to the small but growing internal opposition to the former president.

Sununu, seen as a rising star of the post-Trump right, attacked his colleagues in an interview on CNN, insisting that House Republicans have their priorities screwed up for seeking retaliation against 13 members who voted for Joe Bidens $1.2tn infrastructure bill.

Sununu was scathing when asked about the call for those members to be stripped of their committee assignments in the same week that only two Republicans vocal Trump critics Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger voted to censure their colleague Paul Gosar for tweeting a video showing him murdering the Democratic congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Thats kind of that social media mob mentality thats built up in this country where we dont agree with one issue so were going to attack them, were going to vilify one person or one individual. Weve got to get beyond that, because culturally, its really, really ruining America, he said.

Politics in its entirety on both sides of the aisle in Washington is screwed up. They got their priorities all wrong, they focus on the wrong things. They dont talk about balancing budgets, fixing healthcare, immigration reform, social security and Medicare instead we spend all of our time focusing on these nitpicky things.

He defended Cheney, who was ousted from her leadership role earlier this year by House Republicans after she challenged Trumps lie that his election defeat by Joe Biden was fraudulent.

Regarding Republicans failure to speak out against Gosar, a Trump loyalist, Sununu added: When a congressman says those things, of course they have to be censured Were talking about kicking people off committees because they dont like one vote or the other? Again, I just think they have their priorities screwed up.

Sununu is among a small number of senior, elected Republicans with the confidence to begin pushing back (although not directly) against Trumps domination of the party.

Glenn Youngkin won a surprise victory earlier this month in Virginias governors race after a campaign during which he deliberately kept Trump at arms length, yet did tacitly echo the former presidents talking points. Some saw his win as a new Republican playbook for navigating future elections minus the specter of Trump.

Meanwhile, Chris Christie, a former governor of New Jersey and one-time Trump adviser, has told party members they needed to renounce the conspiracy theories and truth deniers, the ones who know better and the ones who are just plain nuts. Trump, who is considering another presidential run in 2024, attacked Christie while attempting to seek credit for Youngkins victory.

Friction has also been reported in Trumps relationship with his protege Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor touted in Republican circles as the former presidents heir apparent and tipped for a likely 2024 White House run of his own. Trump is increasingly irritated by DeSantis soaring popularity, according to CNN, and has become obsessed with receiving credit for his rise.

A report in the Atlantic published on Sunday suggested that Trumps once iron-clad grip on the Republican party might finally be slipping, arguing that the recent series of developments point to the early stirrings of a Republican party in which Trump is sidelined.

However, Trump continues to raise millions of dollars for an as yet undeclared presidential candidacy, and sends out regular endorsements of state and national candidates he believes embody the principles of Trumpism.

Until recently, Sununu was believed to be among them, but he reportedly upset Republican colleagues earlier this month with his announcement that he was not interested in pursuing a seat in the US Senate.

According to Politico, both the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, and Rick Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, considered him the perfect candidate to help wrest chamber control from Democratic hands in the 2022 midterm elections, but were blindsided by his decision.

You just get so much more done as governor, Sununu told CNN on Sunday. Governors are the ones that have to implement and design programs, create opportunities, and we as governors have the best opportunity to offset some of the negative things coming out of Washington. The Senate and House really dont have any power to do that.

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Republicans vilification of Trump critics is ruining the US, says governor - The Guardian

1. Representative Liz Cheney. Who would have predicted that Dick Cheneys superconservative daughter, long despised by many as a pro-torture, anti-abortion, warmongering chip off the old block, would wind up on the same side as Democrats on anything ever? Yet here we are. Ms. Cheneys vote to impeach Mr. Trump (in his second round), her service on the Jan. 6 select committee, her steady drumbeat of warnings about the threat Mr. Trumps lies pose to the nation these shouldnt be partisan issues, but in todays G.O.P. they absolutely set her apart from the sniveling herd. (Plus, her running feud with Senator Ted Cruz is a delight.) In return, she was booted from the House leadership in May, and the Wyoming G.O.P. voted this month to stop recognizing her as a Republican. She is facing a fierce primary challenge next year, enthusiastically backed by Mr. Trump and some of her MAGA colleagues.

2. Representative Adam Kinzinger. The Illinois lawmaker has been an outspoken Trump critic, voting for impeachment this year and serving on the Jan. 6 committee. Even some of his family members turned on Mr. Kinzinger for his betrayal of Mr. Trump, firing off a group letter in January proclaiming themselves disgusted and accusing him of joining the devils army of Democrats and the fake news media. Last month, after redistricting complicated his re-election prospects, Mr. Kinzinger announced his retirement from the House at the end of this term though he left open the possibility of running for higher office.

3. The impeachment backers. Ten House Republicans voted to impeach Mr. Trump last January for having incited the Jan. 6 insurrection attempt. In February, seven Senate Republicans voted to convict. These members upheld the Constitution and put country over party, so naturally they have been targeted for payback by the former president and his toadies.

4. The infrastructure package supporters. For G.O.P. lawmakers, just doing ones job has become risky business. This month, 13 Republican House members helped pass a badly needed bipartisan infrastructure package, putting constituents interests ahead of their partys desire to deny the Democrats a legislative accomplishment. For their troubles, the 13 were trashed as RINOs by Mr. Trump and declared traitors by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who posted their office phone numbers on social media. The former Trump strategist Steve Bannon similarly posted the numbers of the 19 Republican senators who voted for the plan in August. The insults, invective and death threats promptly came rolling in.

5. The Georgia vote defenders. Mr. Trump lost Georgia fair and square, but that didnt stop him from trying to persuade state leaders to overturn the results and declare him the winner. Were it not for the spinal fortitude of people like Gov. Brian Kemp, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and the election official Gabriel Sterling in resisting the former presidents machinations, America could have been plunged into a full-blown constitutional crisis.

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Opinion | The Republicans Were Thankful For - The New York Times

WESTLAKE, Ohio Michael Johns doesnt want to see Democrats destroy our school system from the inside out, which is why he ran for a seat this year on his local school board.

The majority of all the tax money goes to the schools ... thats why the Democrats want to control it, Johns, 62, said at a recent GOP meeting in this northeast Ohio suburb.

Johns, a father of two teens and owner of a manufacturing business, didnt win his race in Parma, Ohio, a Cleveland suburb. But the issues that prompted him to run what he sees as not enough parental control and too much Democratic control on public school boards arent resolved, and he predicts they will be a deciding factor in how he votes in future statewide GOP primaries that mostly have nothing to do with his school board.

Weve allowed our control to get too far away from us, Johns told HuffPost after the meeting. Everything is decided without us having any say whatsoever.

Earlier this month, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the Virginia governors race by appealing to parents and their anger toward public schools, which exploded during the pandemic. That race, and others showing a GOP resurgence in swing-prone suburbs, are seen as foreshadowing a brutal midterm election for Democrats. With the election less than a year away, Republicans are hoping to build on the conditions and messaging that worked for them this year President Joe Bidens weak poll numbers, inflation, supply chain snags and the reckoning over public education.

In GOP races up and down the ballot, broadly opposing the perceived teaching of critical race theory and mask mandates has become standard fare for Republicans. CRT has origins in academia, but Republicans have turned critical race theory into a catchall term for essentially any teachings having to do with racism and history in public schools. Districts across the country have pushed back, arguing theres no actual CRT in elementary, middle or high school curricula.

Still, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a possible 2024 presidential candidate, led a successful campaign to ban purported CRT in schools, calling it state-sanctioned racism. Nevada Senate hopeful Adam Laxalt, who is trying to oust a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, has pledged to implement a system to let parents report supposed instances of CRT directly to his office, according to Townhall, a right-wing news site.

At the same time, Democrats are trying to figure out how to counter Republicans on race issues, particularly since in Youngkins contest, the emphasis on CRT and other race-coded messaging didnt dampen his support among voters of color.

This should terrify Democrats. With our democracy on the line, we have to forge an effective counterattack on race while rethinking the false choice between mobilizing base voters or persuading swing voters, Democratic activist Tory Gavito and former Sen. Harry Reid staffer Adam Jentleson wrote in a post-election New York Times op-ed.

In Ohio, Republican Senate candidate Jane Timken made campaign contributions to more than 40 school board candidates running on conservative platforms. About half of them won. Just after this months election, Timken began a parents first listening tour aimed at prospective supporters with an eye toward education.

At a bar and grill in Westlake recently, Timken demonstrated how one candidate is trying to translate the grassroots energy around parental rights into a statewide primary win.

Timken, a mother of two adult children, said she sensed the parental uprising brewing in the spring, before it erupted nationally. At the time, many school buildings were still closed and backlash to CRT was relatively new.

Long before it became a national topic, I was listening to parents and I was talking to them. They came to me and said, Do you know whats happening in our schools? Because the pandemic opened peoples eyes. There was an awakening in parents, Timken told the group as they snacked on spicy chicken wings in the restaurants tight back room.

Let me tell you, they poked the mama and papa bears, she said. Parents want to have a say in their childrens education.

After the event, Timken brought up the clumsy debate answer that Republicans believe ultimately sank Youngkins Democratic opponent, Terry McAuliffe, in the governors race.

Terry McAuliffe said the quiet part out loud that parents shouldnt have any say in what their kids are being taught in schools, Timken told HuffPost, referring to a comment McAuliffe made about why he opposed parents removing books from school libraries. I think the Democrats have weaponized this. You see so many caring people who just want to have a say in their childrens education.

For some parents, it was the mask mandates and virtual learning that pushed them over the edge. For others, it was the teaching of anti-racist curricula and sex education, and allowing students to use bathrooms that best match their gender identity, not necessarily the gender they were assigned at birth.

These issues arent outwardly the same, but underpinning them is the tug-of-war over parental rights that has become the newest battlefront for the two parties. Republicans want more parental oversight in public education; Democrats want to empower teachers and experts. Democrats embrace diversity and inclusion efforts; Republicans view them skeptically and say they create more division.

Parental rights is a big issue, said Rick Cyngier, who has been a school board member in Brooklyn, Ohio, for the past 10 years. He was one of the candidates who ran this year with the backing of a conservative Christian group, Ohio Value Voters, whose anti-CRT, pro-parents rights slate, like others nationwide, had mixed success.

I put on my signs, No CRT. No woke culture. No cancel culture. Baseline education. People need to know where were coming from, Cyngier, a mortgage loan officer, said.

Among the things Timken said parents have complained about to her recently: students forced to answer pronoun questionnaires and learn comprehensive sex education without parental consent. Timken described a district in central Ohio where a woman named Miss Rosemary, who wasnt a certified teacher, was brought into classrooms to teach sex education to elementary school students, which shocked and angered parents, she said.

Most of the people at Timkens midday event last Thursday, who skewed older and white, had concerns that straddled local and national issues. They were worried about job prospects for graduates, student loan debt and high school graduates being steered toward expensive liberal arts degrees instead of more practical vocational training.

They complained that younger people would rather stay home and collect government money than enter the workforce even though the extra federal unemployment payment that helped people who lost their jobs during the pandemic expired in September, and unemployment is trending lower.

Were going to wake up in a nightmare eventually, said Lucy Stickan, a local GOP officer in her 50s who worries that younger generations havent been able to build wealth like their parents and grandparents. These kids better get back in trades and they better get back to work ... Sometimes people have to suffer before they learn the truth, and unfortunately thats what happened with our country.

Johns, the former school board candidate, told Timken that locally, he fears Democrats overseeing large municipal budgets and outperforming Republicans in early absentee voting.

Nationally, he objects to Bidens enhanced child tax credit which reduced child poverty by 40% in July, according to one study going to poor families that dont earn any income or dont make enough to file a federal tax return.

What good is the tax credit when you havent paid any taxes? Johns said. If youve paid no taxes, you should reserve that for the day you actually earn some money and reduce your tax bill.

Stickan encouraged school board candidates, even the ones like Johns who didnt win, to keep at it, seeing their movement as a new avenue for the party to attract voters and attention.

Ive been involved for a long time and I dont remember ever seeing this interest in schools, she said. So I kind of think we should take these lemons and make lemonade.

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The Pandemic Caused A Parental 'Awakening.' Republicans Hope They Don't Sleep On 2022. - HuffPost