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For Republicans, September is shaping up to be a month of bitter pills.

It appears increasingly likely to GOP lawmakers that they will be asked to vote for two things they hate at the end of the month.

The first is a continuing resolution that would keep the government open and funded at current spending levels.

I think were in for a long fall, White House director of legislative affairs Marc Short said at an Americans for Prosperity event Monday night.

Congress faces a Sept. 30 deadline to prevent a government shutdown, while Treasury Secretary Steven MnuchinSteven Terner MnuchinGOP chairman tells agencies to exclude info from FOIA requests 'It takes a village' to protect financial sector from cyber threats G-20 sees role reversal of US, EU leaders on protectionist measures MORE, somewhat conveniently, has set a Sept. 29 deadline for raising the nations borrowing limit.

Mnuchin says the hike should be clean, meaning it should not be tied to spending cuts or reforms demanded by conservatives.

To get the bill through the Senate, Republicans will need support from Democrats, giving the minority leverage.

Republicans loath funding the government with a continuing resolution because it blocks or postpones a slew of their priorities, including funds for President Trumps border wall, significant increases in military spending and cuts to nondefense discretionary spending.

Wed be against a continuing resolution because that wouldnt allow us to fund those priorities, White House budget director Mick Mulvaney said in June.

Republicans could avoid the continuing resolution by reaching a deal on a broader spending bill, but that would also require Democratic support in the Senate, and time is running out.

So far, the House has only managed to approve four spending bills. The Senate has not approved any, and most have not even made it out of committee.

This means the continuing resolution is a more likely outcome and one that would buy time for a longer budget deal at the end of the year.

Several prominent conservative leaders sounded resigned to a continuing resolution as House members began their recess last week.

September is going to be a very difficult month, I mean obviously all of this is coming into play right away, all the fiscal issues and deadlines are going to make it extremely difficult to get everything done in a piece-by-piece basis, said Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), the chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.

I think that there is no way to work quick enough to do a normal appropriations process, so a CR will be the result, because of inactivity in the Senate, he added.

Congress will still be under pressure this fall to secure a spending deal even with a continuing resolution.

New budget caps under a previous long-term budget deal are set to kick in in January. This would reduce spending below existing levels unless Congress passes a new law.

Without a bipartisan budget deal lifting the caps, said Patrick LeahyPatrick LeahyDigital privacy bill still abandons probable cause for our papers Overnight Tech: Driverless car bill advances in House | Bezos now world's richest person | Tech groups hail new email privacy bill Senate panel advances measure to protect medical marijuana states MORE (D-Vt.) vice chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, spending plans currently under consideration would result in a 13.2 percent sequester on national security programs in just a few months, undermining military readiness.

Then there's the problem of the debt ceiling.

Raising the borrowing limit is a difficult vote for most members of Congress, but particularly for Republicans.

A HarvardHarris Poll in June found that an astonishing 69 percent of voters were opposed to Congress raising the debt ceiling, even though the failure to do so could lead the United States to default on its debt. Even the suggestion that the government would not pay its bills could spark a new financial and economic crisis.

Under former President Barack ObamaBarack ObamaOvernight Tech: Senate panel approves FCC nominees | Dem group invests in progressive startups | Tech groups rip Trump immigration plan Russian PM: New sanctions amount to 'full-scale trade war' America's divisions: The greatest strategic vulnerability of our time MORE, conservatives tried to use the must-pass legislation to get spending reforms or other Republican priorities made into law.

With Trump in the White House and Republicans controlling both the House and Senate, however, the dynamics have shifted. Democrats may try to turn the tables and extract concessions from Republicans, who will need Democratic support to pass the debt ceiling.

To ensure that we have robust economic growth and promote fiscal discipline, the Trump administration believes its important to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, White House press secretarySarah Huckabee Sanders said on Tuesday.

Even so, some Republicans are still pushing for some sort of policy reform to hitch to the debt ceiling.

Ive been raising the issue of the debt ceiling for months now, and certainly what Id like to see is some meaningful, structural control enacted in conjunction with increasing, said Sen. Ron JohnsonRon JohnsonScrap the Senates 30-hour per nominee debate rule to clear backlog of Trump nominees GOP senators pitch rules change amid nominations backlog Republicans wonder: Can we govern? MORE (R-Wis.).

The difficult decisions come as Republicans grapple with a narrative that they are unable to govern.

In the first six months of the Trump administration, they have yet to finalize a major piece of legislation, including the healthcare bill that failed in the Senate last week.

Come autumn, the GOP will likely have to choose between allowing the government to shut down and default on its debt and making politically difficult, unpopular decisions.

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Cruel September looms for GOP - The Hill

By Zach Gibson/Getty Images.

Still reeling from last weeks health-care disaster, Republicans are scurrying back to more comfortable territory: cutting taxes. Weve had our vote, and were moving on to tax reform, John Thune, the third-ranking Republican in the Senate, said. But after months of promising to overhaul the tax code by the end of the year, the Trump administration has yet to provide a clear, detailed tax-reform plan, leaving rank-and-file Republicans in the dark and the party at risk of repeating the same mistakes that killed Obamacare repeal. There is no detail, Representative Ted Yoho said in an interview. It is a problem.

When Donald Trump unexpectedly won the Oval Office last November, the Republican Party was given the greatest opportunity in 30 years to re-write the tax code. But six months into the new administration, the G.O.P.s tax plan remains inchoate. As the health-care debate was roiling Capitol Hill, the so-called Big Six Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatchreleased a six-paragraph statement on Thursday that lacked any real policy minutiae. A few vague paragraphs isnt even a broad strokes proposalits more like finger painting, Rep. Sander Levin complained. One tax lobbyist echoed the sentiment to Politico: This literally started as principles yesterday and morphed into mindless pablum in 24 hours.

The statement did provide clarity on the controversial border-adjustment taxdefinitively stating that it will not be included in the tax-reform plan. Ryan and Brady championed the idea earlier this year, pitching it as a way to collect as much as $1 trillion in revenue to offset tax cuts elsewhere. But Ryan caved after critics blasted the policy as a tax on consumers. [Ryans] top priority is getting meaningful tax reform done, a House Republican aide told Politico. He had no interest in holding up reform over this one policy, no matter how right he believes it to be.

But beyond settling the dispute over the border-adjustment tax, it is unclear how the Trump administration and Congressional leadership intend to offset the massive tax cuts the president has insisted will be included in the tax-reform plan. There are so many other questions, Mark Meadows, the chairman of the arch-conservative House Freedom Caucus, told Bloomberg. We need a lot more level of detail before you can opine on whether its good or bad.

It remains unclear, for instance, how low the corporate tax rate can realistically go. The House Republican tax plan includes a corporate tax rate of 20 percent, while Trump had been pushing for 15 percent. Hatch, however, characterized the presidents proposal as very unlikely In an interview with Reuters. In fact, it would be kind of miraculous if we could get it down to 25 percent or less. Id like to get it down to around 20 percent. Id love to get it at 15 percent if we could, the Utah Senator added. But I think the odds are, were going to be lucky to get it down at all.

Much like they did on health care, the Republicans are not likely to have much Democratic support. In a letter to G.O.P. leadership and Trump on Tuesday, signed by 45 of the 48 members of the Democratic caucus, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote that they would not back any tax-reform bill that added to the deficit or provided tax cuts to the countrys most affluent. Tax reform cannot be a cover story for delivering tax cuts to the wealthiest, the letter reads. We will not support any tax plan that includes tax cuts for the top 1 percent.

McConnell has said that he intends to tackle tax reform through budget reconciliation, which would allow him to pass a bill along party lines. And while the Kentucky senator will likely face many of the same obstacles as he did on health careuniting the conservative and moderate factions of the Republican Partygetting to 50 votes might be slightly easier if the three Democrats who didnt sign Schumers letterSenators Joe Manchin, Joe Donnelly, and Heidi Heitkampbreak ranks. But with so few details at this stage, it is hard to say how difficult of a lift Ryan and McConnell will face. As William Gale, a tax-policy expert at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution, explained to Bloomberg, Distance is a tax reforms best friend. Once you look at it up close and see the things you have to do, people shy away from it pretty quickly.

The White House, for its part, is pressing ahead, with or without a clear idea of where its going. At a political event hosted by two conservative groups tied to the Koch brothers, Legislative Director Marc Short said a tax plan would be introduced in the House in October and make its way through the Senate in November. So that, I think, is an aggressive schedule, but that is our timetable, Short said, according to Politico. I think were in for a long fall, legislative calendar-wise.

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Republicans Still Have No Idea What the White House Is Doing on Tax Reform - Vanity Fair

By Matt Grossmann and David A. Hopkins By Matt Grossmann and David A. Hopkins August 2 at 6:00 AM

During the 2016 election, many observers from across the political spectrum saw Donald Trumps candidacy as a direct challenge to the Republican Partys ideological orthodoxy. Reporters described Trump as an insurgent populist running on a policy platform that cuts across party lines . . . [and is] anathema to movement conservatives. From Barack Obama on the left to Bill Kristol on the right, critics described Trumps brand of politics as fundamentally incompatible with conservative principles and Republican heritage.

But thats not what weve seen so far. Instead of transforming the Republican Party, Trump has assembled the most conservative administration and agenda of any modern president. Analysts overstated Trumps distance from Republican campaign orthodoxy and expected him to be able to avoid the challenges of leading his party from opposition to governing mode. As a result, they underestimated the resilience of the GOPs basiccharacter.

Many observers misread the Trump campaign, predicting a political realignment between the parties

Because Trumps campaign was so superficially unusual, journalists exaggerated its distance from ordinary conservative positions. Like previous Republicans, Trump relied on broad symbolic rhetoric rather than policy specifics. He accused the Democrats of weakness on national security and the mainstream news media of bias. He denounced Obamacare without explaining how he would replace it, proposed large-scale tax cuts, and decried government regulation.

Trump even stood to the right of other Republicans on his signature issue: immigration. He deployed nativist rhetoric and denounced international institutions. That reinvigorated the American rights tradition of nationalism and aligned the Republicans with a global trend among far-right parties.

The Washington Post's Philip Rucker, Ashley Parker and David Nakamura look at what President Trump has done over the past six months to fulfill his pledge to build a border wall. (Bastien Inzaurralde/The Washington Post)

Trumps campaign did deviate from a few conventional Republican positions particularly on free trade and entitlements. But so had previous conservative populists, like Pat Buchanan. Predictions that Trumps rise would cause the parties to realign ideologically were overstated.

In fact, Trump is governing like a firm even far-right conservative

Before the election, we predicted that Trump wouldnt redefine Republican ideology; rather, the GOPs stable congressional leadership and infrastructure would change Trump, forcing him to reconcile his ambitious campaign promises with the realities of governing without alienating conservative ideologues.

[This is why Pences voter fraud commission will almost certainly find duplicate registrations that arent really duplicates.]

And thats what has happened. Trump is not trying to redefine party orthodoxy or build coalitions with the Democrats. His executive branch appointments have tilted farther to the ideological right than previous Republican presidents (as did his Supreme Court nomination). Working with the Republican-controlled Congress, his appointees are swiftly reversing Obama-era regulations. Republican leaders have driven the congressional agenda, emphasizing ACA repeal, tax reform, and corporate deregulation rather than Trumps less conservative campaign proposals like infrastructure spending and expanded parental leave.

Speaking to conservative activists, Feb. 24, President Trump outlined his plans for tax reform, regulatory rollback and strengthening the U.S. military. (Reuters)

Trumps proposed federal budget endorses deep cuts to many domestic programs, and his positions on social issues such as his recently-announced decision to ban transgender servicemembers from the military are just as conservative.

Trumps distinctive personality continues to dominate headlines. But the presidents personnel and policy choices mostly show how hes constrained by the broader Republican infrastructure of media, interest group, and activist supporters, who were attracted to his angry denunciations of Obama policies but werent interested in a leftward tilt.

Even though some observers saw the recent departure of White House chief of staff Reince Priebus as a sign of Trumps growing independence from the Republican establishment, theres no reason to think that the presidents frustration with Priebuss performance is leading him to reconsider the rightward policy direction of his administration.

[Republicans and Democrats cant even agree about how they disagree]

Heres why the Republican Party is pulling Trump rightward

Our recent book, Asymmetric Politics, explains why the GOP cannot easily be diverted from its conservative path. The Republican Party is the agent of an ideological movement unlike the Democratic Party, which is a social coalition defending the concrete interests of its constituent groups. Democratic politicians work to achieve incremental benefits for a variety of electoral constituencies. But Republican voters, politicians, and activists are motivated instead by adherence to a single ideological doctrine. With Trumps election, Republicans are continuing their longstanding drive toward a broad rightward shift in policy.

President Trump asked House Republicans if they can "believe" that he's president, while celebrating the passage of the American Health Care Act in the House of Representatives on May 4 at the White House. (The White House)

Republicans firm and uncompromising dedication to small-government values can cause big problems for party leaders. The congressional right wing has already shown that its willing to oppose health care and budgetary proposals introduced by its own partys leadership. Disputes among Republicans over how much electoral risk the party should take in order to remain true to conservative principles can be just as difficult to resolve as typical Democratic disagreements over which party constituency should receive the most attention from officeholders.

[How different are the Democratic and Republican parties? Too different to compare.]

Many conservative Republican themes like personal liberty, American nationalism, and moral traditionalism are quite popular. But the ideology is more appealing than most specific conservative policy positions. As Republicans have discovered during frustrating debates over health care, while small government may be an attractive idea, losing government benefits or protections is not and provokes a backlash.

Why Trump still represents a conservative opportunity

Previous Republican presidents resolved these conflicts by pairing selected conservative priorities with major policy initiatives departing from ideological precepts even expanding the size and scope of government.

For instance, George W. Bush launched a new federal intervention in public education, No Child Left Behind, which included nationwide standards and testing; regulated the accounting industry; brought back agricultural subsidies; and passed a new prescription drug entitlement. His father George H. W. Bush hiked the minimum wage, raised taxes, increased environmental regulation, and expanded disability rights. Ronald Reagan hiked gas taxes to fund transportation improvements, built major job training programs, and offered amnesty to undocumented immigrants.

But Trump is sticking with a more consistently conservative path and refusing to compromise with the Democratic opposition. In doing so, Trump and his Republican congressional allies are trying to reverse a decades-long trend in which federal policymaking has drifted in a liberal direction no matter which party is in power.

If the Trump administration doesnt win any major legislative victories while hes in office, conservatives will surely be quite disappointed. Yet if Trump pursues regulatory retrenchment within the federal bureaucracy while declining to advance any major new legislative expansions of government responsibility, he will still compile the most conservative policy record of any recent administration.

Reporters and pundits like to portray political campaigns as a battle of individual personalities. But elections are mostly a competition between two partisan teams. Many Republican leaders and activists saw Trumps victory as a rare opportunity to move national policy much farther to the right. Rather than trying to squelch or redirect these ambitions, Trump has staked his presidency on fulfilling them.

Matt Grossmannis director of theInstitute for Public Policy and Social Researchandassociate professor of political science at Michigan State University. Find him on Twitter@mattgrossmann.

David A. Hopkinsis associate professor of political science at Boston Collegeand blogs about U.S.politics atHonest Graft.

Together theyare the authors ofAsymmetric Politics: Ideological Republicans and Group Interest Democrats(Oxford University Press, 2016).

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Trump isn't changing the Republican Party. The Republican Party is changing Trump. - Washington Post

Lawmakers in Congress have offered a wide range of reactions to President Donald Trumps ban on transgender people serving in the military. File photo by Joshua Roberts/Reuters

The reactions to President Donald Trumps tweets last Wednesday announcing a ban on transgender individuals from serving in the military have continued pouring in this week. On Tuesday, 56 retired military officers spoke out against the announcement, warning that the policy, if implemented, would degrade military readiness. For now, the nations top military official has said transgender troops can continue to serve until the White House issues official guidance to the Department of Defense.

(Trans troops, as NewsHours Corinne Segal reported, are weighing their options).

Meanwhile, lawmakers on Capitol Hill have also weighed in on the issue and their response could be critical. In 2010, Congress repealed Dont ask, Dont tell, the controversial Clinton-era ban on openly gay and lesbian service members. If Congress decides to challenge Trump now, it could come in the form of this years annual defense spending bill. The House has already passed its version; the Senate will ring in next. Ultimately, both chambers must agree on a final spending package, so its important to track Republicans positions on both sides of the Capitol.

Heres a look at where lawmakers stand.

Object to the ban: Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, was the only Republican who signed onto a letter from 44 Democrats voicing their opposition to the ban. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who chairs the Senate Armed Services committee, has also taken a firm stance against the ban. McCain said in a statement that there is no reason to force service members who are able to fight, train, and deploy to leave the militaryregardless of their gender identity. Other Republicans have also opposed the ban publicly in interviews or on social media, including Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., and outgoing Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., whose son is transgender.

Opposed to the ban, but in favor of cutting funding for gender reassignment surgery: Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, a veteran and a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has also come out against the ban. Last week, a spokesperson for the senator told Politico and others that while (Sen. Ernst) believes taxpayers shouldnt cover the costs associated with a gender reassignment surgery, Americans who are qualified and can meet the standards to serve in the military should be afforded that opportunity.

Waiting to hear from military leaders: Sens. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., Roy Blunt, R-Mo., Mike Enzi, R-Wyo., James Lankford, R-Okla., Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and John Thune, R-S.D., all have indicated that they want the Pentagon to weigh in on the issue.

READ MORE: After Trump announces ban, trans soldiers wonder what comes next

Respect the presidents decision: Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., said he respected Trumps decision as the commander-in-chief. Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and David Perdue, R-Ga., indicated the president was acting within his rights when he announced the ban on Twitter.

In favor of the ban: Sens. James Inhofe, R-Okla., and Luther Strange, R-La., have given some of the strongest statements of support of the transgender ban. Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., who serves on the House Armed Services Committee, put out a statement saying the president made the absolute right decision.

The no comment crowd: Rand Paul has not yet commented on the substance of the debate. Neither have Sens. Richard Burr, R-N.C., or Bob Corker, R-Tenn., though Corker said he would look into it.

Critical of the tweets: Several lawmakers in both chambers of Congress criticized Trumps use of Twitter to announce the ban, regardless of how they felt about the policy itself. McCain, for example, called it yet another example of why major policy announcements should not be made via Twitter. Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Fla., told reporters that it throws us off when the president makes surprise policy announcements on Twitter.

Read more:
Where Republican lawmakers stand on transgender troops - PBS NewsHour

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander on Tuesday made the first move by a senior Republican to work with Democrats on repairing Obamacare after his party failed to repeal and replace the healthcare law, announcing work on bipartisan legislation to stabilize the individual health insurance market.

Alexander, who chairs the Senate health committee, urged U.S. President Donald Trump to drop his threat to cut government subsidy payments to insurers that make Obamacare plans affordable and to allow the payments through September. The senator also said fellow lawmakers should fund those payments for one year.

Alexander's announcement followed the spectacular failure last week by Senate Republicans to pass their own repeal or replacement of the Affordable Care Act, former President Barack Obama's signature domestic initiative also referred to as Obamacare.

The Tennessee Republican said the Senate health committee "will hold hearings beginning the week of September 4 on the actions Congress should take to stabilize and strengthen the individual health insurance market so that Americans will be able to buy insurance at affordable prices in the year 2018."

The goal, Alexander said, would be legislation sponsored by both parties that would stabilize the insurance market and help lower premiums in 2018 for the roughly 18 million Americans who buy health insurance in the individual market, instead of getting insurance through an employer.

Trump, frustrated that he and Republicans have not been able to keep promises to repeal and replace Obamacare, has threatened to let the law implode, including by cutting off about $8 billion in subsidies that are used to make Obamacare health plans more affordable for low income Americans.

Insurers, who are finalizing their insurance premium rates for 2018, have asked Congress to guarantee that those funds will stay in place for the rest of this year and 2018. Without the subsidies, they say they will need to raise premium rates by about 20 percent.

Without an answer, insurers have filed preliminary rates based on different parameters: Some set rates that assumed the subsidies would be paid, others set rates that assumed they would not, and some submitted two different set of rates reflecting both outcomes.

Senator Patty Murray, the top Democrat on the health panel, welcomed Alexander's statement and said she looked forward to working in a bipartisan manner to stabilize the healthcare market and reduce premiums.

In the House, a bipartisan group of 43 lawmakers on Monday called for Congress to quickly stabilize the individual insurance market by appropriating money for the cost-sharing payments and creating a stability fund for states.

additional reporting by Caroline Humer; Editing by Cynthia Osterman

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Republican makes first move to work with Democrats on healthcare - Reuters