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BLACKSBURG, Va. Chris Hurst checks the dark clouds out the window of his Jeep Liberty as he barrels west up Route 460 to the crest of Brush Mountain. Rain starts, big drops, promising a heavy storm. Hurst hurtles down the far side, finds the gravel lot hes looking for and pulls off the road.

He scrambles out of the car, determined to get a picture before the rain gets too intense. How about that, he chuckles, centering the image on his iPhone: a giant billboard reading Giles County for Hurst. Vote Nov.7th.

Its solid red country over here, so Hurst running for the Virginia House of Delegates as a Democrat is making a bold statement with that sign. Just up the road is a huge banner depicting the Ten Commandments and the American flag, and beyond that a billboard with a bloody cross and the slogan Hang out with Jesus. He hung out for you.

This is home turf for his opponent, Del. Joseph R. Yost, a Republican who has represented the 12th District since 2011. One of the youngest members of the General Assembly, Yost is from an old pioneer family and chairs the local historical society.

In a state where all the races are serving as proxies for partisan wars in Washington, the 12th is a key battleground targeted by Democrats as one that can be flipped from Republican control, a beachhead in a region that once seemed untouchably red.

After his girlfriend was murdered on live television in 2015, Chris Hurst left behind a career as a local news anchor in hopes of becoming a delegate for Virginias 12th District in the state legislature. Democrats believe hecould flip the competitive seat. (Dalton Bennett,Whitney Shefte/The Washington Post)

Hurst is a political novice, but a local celebrity with a tragic backstory. He was the anchor for the evening news two years ago when reporter Alison Parker and cameraman Adam Ward were gunned down on live TV by a disturbed former colleague. Parker and Hurst had been living together with plans to marry.

His surprise decision this year to quit TV and run for office electrified the local race. He has raised the second-highest amount of all Democratic challengers in the 100 Virginia House races $232,000 as of the June reporting period. Republicans are funneling cash to Yost to keep up, raising $210,000. Their district is as polarized as any in the state one side of Brush Mountain voted for Donald Trump last fall and the other for Hillary Clinton.

But at the center of all that attention and pressure, Hurst and Yost are doing something interesting something that suggests Washington's hyperpartisan toxicity doesnt have to play out at every level: Rather than withdraw to ideological extremes, they are converging toward the middle, staking out similar positions on many issues.

Both are opposed to the huge natural gas pipeline proposed for the county. Both want to protect manufacturing jobs, support public schools and create better mental-health services.

Yost won the endorsement of the Virginia Education Association almost unheard of for a Republican. Hurst, the gun violence survivor, touts his support for gun rights.

And neither is a big fan of President Trump.

Im an unusual Republican, Yost said.

Hursts version: If there was a party that was just the No B.S. party, Id be a charter member.

A complicated district

From the outside, it would be easy to make assumptions about the 12th District. It is part of the red backcountry, the edge of Appalachia, home to the working-class whites who helped put Trump in office.

Except its more complicated than that. The crest of Brush Mountain is the line between Giles and Montgomery counties. Virginia Tech and Radford University are on the Montgomery side, which is economically diverse with upscale neighborhoods full of professors and business leaders. Occasional modest We love our Muslim neighbors signs can be spotted on the shady streets of Blacksburg.

In Giles, where the biggest employer is a factory that makes cellulose acetate and other materials for filtration devices, many of the little towns Pearisburg, Narrows, Rich Creek, Newport are struggling, their business districts darkened by empty storefronts.

In terms of natural beauty, though, Giles is wealthy beyond measure. The Appalachian Trail winds through the county for 50 miles, some of it along the spectacular New River Gorge. The 69-foot Cascade Falls draws nearly 150,000 visitors every year.

Those resources produce a pragmatic environmentalism among locals. There was little objection a few years ago to a natural gas pipeline for the Celanese plant, for instance, because it eliminated the factorys coal waste and supported jobs.

But the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline is just passing through on its way to Pittsylvania County and draws almost universal outrage in both Giles and Montgomery.

During last falls presidential election, the Giles side of the district went heavily for Trump while the Montgomery side went largely for Clinton. With its bigger population, Montgomery tipped the overall district into the Democratic column but only by about 500 votes out of more than 30,000 cast, according to an analysis by the Virginia Public Access Project.

That edge is why Democrats think they can pick up the district this year, with blue voters especially motivated to defy the party of Trump.

That, and the fact that Hurst looks like a rising star.

The importance of place

Hurst just turned 30 but has the bearing of a much older man. He had to develop his anchorman gravitas early, winning the big chair at WDBJ in Roanoke when he was only 22. The station touted him as the youngest anchor in the country.

It was something Hurst had been preparing for since his childhood in the Philadelphia area. He and his dad built sets at their house so he could stage talk shows, and he did newscasts on his high schools public-access TV channel.

He came to Roanoke in 2010, not long after graduating from Emerson College. Parker joined the station in 2015. As they fell in love their careers consumed them, but they took refuge in hiking and kayaking across the region.

Her death made headlines worldwide. She was interviewing a local economic development official on live TV when a former reporter at the station showed up and shot her, cameraman Ward and the official, Vicki Gardner, who survived.

The shooter posted his own video of the killing online before being hunted down by police and killing himself. Parker was 24, Ward was 27.

Hurst was on the air soon after, talking of his relationship with Parker. He went on living in the apartment they had shared and kept up daily phone calls with her father, who had become outspoken about guns and mental illness.

Somewhere in those discussions, as Hurst struggled to find meaning, the idea of running for office came up. After months of weighing it with his family, Hurst made the break in February. He said farewell after an evening newscast, announced that he was running for office as a Democrat and moved to a basement apartment in Blacksburg with his dog.

Many people assume Hurst is running on the issue of gun control. The Pride Fund to End Gun Violence hosted him at an event in Washington last month, along with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ralph Northam rare recognition for a candidate in an obscure state district race.

But Hursts position is not what advocates on either side may think. Hes a gun owner, he said; Parker liked to shoot, too. Hes leery of steps to broadly restrict access to guns. Instead, he favors measures to treat mental illness and keep guns out of the hands of children or domestic violence offenders.

Even the standard Democratic call for universal background checks is too broad, he said: Im just not as matter-of-fact, black or white with guns as I think people expect or want me to be.

Guns are a nuanced issue in the district. Hunting and shooting are part of growing up here, but so is the memory of the 2007 Virginia Tech massacre, in which a mentally ill student shot and killed 32 people and wounded 17.

Hurst would much rather talk about raises for teachers, or his opposition to the Mountain Valley Pipeline. The need for more mental-health services. Better special-education programs. Unsexy topics that dont make the national news but that people in the community wrestle with every day.

What he learned from the depths of his personal tragedy, he said, is the importance of place. I came through the other side believing that I wanted to stay here and give back to the people who gave me such strength and support when I needed it, he said.

Emphasis on local issues

Yost, the Republican incumbent, has faced opposition before but never someone so high-profile or well funded. If it worries him, he doesnt show it.

At 31, Yost, like Hurst, seems mature for his years. Hes quiet in the General Assembly, seldom making speeches. With his round, tortoiseshell glasses and scruffy facial hair, Yost comes across as a young history professor.

He grew up on a farm in Giles County, went to the public schools and graduated from Radford with degrees in criminal justice. Ive never lived outside the boundaries of my district, he said.

Much of what he has done since jumping into politics in 2011 is rooted in local concerns that dont follow easy partisan patterns.

Yost worked in criminal justice for a time, in jail diversion and crisis intervention training helping the mentally ill get treatment instead of incarceration.

In the legislature this year, Yost sponsored bills to prohibit the death penalty for the severely mentally ill and to study ways that people in jail can get Medicaid services immediately upon release. The first stalled in committee; the second was signed into law.

He has also sponsored legislation to make it legal to farm hemp in Virginia which would help struggling farmers and favors increased education spending. In rural areas, he said, schools do much more than teach; theyre community centers.

But Yost is most definitely a Republican. Hes a loyal rank-and-file vote for the partys majority in the House of Delegates and thinks that government should have limits. Its his conservative outlook, and maybe his polite demeanor, that make him hesitant to even talk about Trump.

Federal issues dont have the impact here they do in other parts of the state, Yost said. Trump doesnt come up. We talk about our issues.

And more than anything, that intense local focus is Yosts secret weapon in the race against his hyper-articulate challenger. He has spent years grinding away at small-bore constituent services.

He and his aide scour the community columns in local newspapers for birthdays, anniversaries, awards, kids bagging their first buck and Yost sends that person a copy of the article with a hand-signed note of congratulations. Dozens, every month. During the school year, he writes to every student who lands on the A/B honor roll all 1,500 of them. I have great strength in my arm, he deadpanned.

In the evenings, knocking on doors for votes, Yost sees the benefit of that unglamorous work.

I had won the award and you sent me a letter, for the community service, said Pearisburg resident Connie Richardson, 66, when Yost asked for her support. And I really appreciated that.

Neighbor Scott Clark, 50, a state trooper, has known Yost most of his life and doesnt think much of Hurst coming from Roanoke to run.

He kind of is a carpetbagger, Clark said. Which I think youd probably hear echoed in most [places]. You might not in Blacksburg, but youd probably hear it over here. ... Theres a pretty fine dividing line. We dont like to be like Blacksburg, and Im sure they dont like to be like us.

Im a trigger

On the other side of Brush Mountain, Hurst stumped for votes in a Blacksburg neighborhood sweat-stained handkerchief in his back pocket, clipboard listing voter names, a tin full of Altoids.

He doesnt feel like an outsider, he said. Roanoke is only 30 minutes away; this was all part of his TV market. But hes quick to point out to people who come to the door and they all recognize him that he lives in town.

Hurst is ready for anything when he meets voters like this. Some have burst into tears, thinking back to the tragedy with Parker, perhaps conscious of Virginia Techs tragedy, as well.

Im a trigger for some people, he said.

At one house, two retired nurses told Hurst that they miss seeing him on TV.

Well, I know Im sweatier and not as made-up in person, he said. Just here more to listen than anything else. Thats what I used to do at the TV station as a reporter, and thats what I hope to do as a delegate, too listen to whats on your mind.

The two women Gayle Robertson, 71, and Lynn Juliano, 63 gave him an earful about their dislike of the Mountain Valley Pipeline. But beyond that, they said, pausing to find the words, things are just discouraging.

Just watching whats going on up in Washington, Juliano said. You know, the health care, and just ... anyway, things are not going the way I would like things to go.

Hurst nodded. You know, I was in an environment where I could let cynicism keep creeping in and feel like I was powerless to make direct change, he said. And instead I took a leap without a safety net to do something that Im passionate about.

You did, yeah, you did, Juliano said, and she and Robertson pledged their support.

With that, Hurst was off to the next house. He has knocked on thousands of doors with volunteers, more than 10,000, including over the mountain in Giles. Hurst isnt willing to write off that part of the district, thus the billboard on the highway.

But the morning after the billboard went up, a small red sign appeared in front of it: Re-elect Joseph Yost Delegate. Another was just up the road, and another, and another marching deeper into Giles County.

Rachel Chason contributed to this report.

Read the original here:
In a polarized Virginia district, differences between the Republican and the Democrat may surprise you - Washington Post

By Jessica Mathews By Jessica Mathews August 22 at 4:16 PM

The swift exodus of chief executives that collapsed the White House business councils last week reveals a strange and disquieting fact about American society: Our politics works better in the private sector than it does in the public one.

President Trump's two major CEO councils disbanded Aug. 16 after Trump was slow to condemn white supremacy groups. (Taylor Turner/The Washington Post)

With the exception of Kenneth Frazier of Merck, who cited personal conscience for his quick decision to step down after President Trumps response to the neo-Nazi protests and violence in Charlottesville, these resignations did not follow moral conviction. The CEOs were reacting to pressure from constituents their customers.

These men and women live in a separate universe from most Americans. They fly in private planes, live in gated communities and travel the world to tend global markets. It has been years, maybe decades, since any of them has had to spare a thought for the family budget other than where to invest the annual surplus. They dont worry about the mortgage or medical care or retirement.

Yet as distant as they are from how most Americans live, the leaders of even the largest enterprises tremble in the face of public opinion. Once a trend has taken hold, they know they have to act quickly.

In stark contrast, the elected representatives whose job it is to reflect their constituents thoughts and experiences, to know the price of a carton of milk and how to get a college loan, spent days in stunning silence. With a handful of exceptions, Republican condemnations of Trumps response Charlottesville were tweeted in the distant third person or the impersonal declarative (House Speaker Paul D. Ryan: We must be clear. White supremacy is repulsive.). Trumps name was not mentioned. Nor was a response offered.

By last Thursday, the congressional party was dug into a deep communal foxhole. CNN announced that it had invited all 52 Republican senators to appear on its morning show in a failed effort to find one who would do so. In this case, it is Republicans who are frozen, but if the facts were reversed, there is little doubt that Democrats would be doing the same.

The firms that raced to distance themselves from the president included Campbell Soup and Walmart, which are obviously vulnerable to brand damage or even a consumer boycott. But even hedge funds that cater to the uber-rich and companies that sell mostly to other businesses felt a greater need to respond to the public revulsion than did members of Congress. Because elected representatives face the ultimate public test of reelection, this seems paradoxical.

But election to Congress is now tantamount to a lifetime appointment. Last year, 97 percent of incumbent representatives and 93 percent of senators were reelected. These numbers (slightly above recent averages) include losses to primary challengers.

At some level, Americans seem to have absorbed this. A group of New York-based advocacy groups collected 400,000 signatures asking the heads of JPMorgan Chase and Blackstone to resign from one of Trumps councils. This political effort was presumably directed where the organizers felt it would have an impact: not to their congressman but to a corporate executive. Why?

There is some evidence that people have given up on the federal government. A poll has asked the same question every few years since 1958: Do you trust the government in Washington to do what is right, all or most of the time? Until the mid-1960s, 75 percent of Americans said yes, but the trust percentage fell below half in about 1972. So, although Americans have voted for drastic changes in leadership and ideology over the ensuing decades, anyone younger than 45 has lived their entire life in a country where the majority does not expect their government to do what they think is right.

Before you despair, note it wasnt that long ago that Washington did function. In four years of Lyndon Johnsons presidency, Congress passed nearly 200 major laws, including three revolutionary civil rights laws that transformed the nation the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act and the Fair Housing Act plus Medicare and Medicaid. Two Cabinet agencies,food stamps, Head Start and 35 national parks and protected areas were created. The essential Freedom of Information Act was passed and a great deal more from urban mass transit to international monetary reform.

Much has changed since then, some of which we cannot control especially globalization and job-destroying technological advances. But most of what has produced glaring inequality, an underperforming, overly costly health-care system, crumbling infrastructure and rising deficits is the result of conscious policy choices, and to practices, from gerrymandering to campaign finance rules, that have produced an immovable, unresponsive and unproductive Congress.

Threats from abroad quickly capture national attention. But for most people, such as myself, who are professionally concerned with national security, the greater anxiety these days is the long-term threat from domestic gridlock and the consequent loss of self-confidence that underlies a successful foreign policy. Quite apart from Trumpian chaos, this is a system in need of basic repair.

See the original post here:
Why CEOs are quicker than Republican legislators to denounce Trump - Washington Post

Cillizza: You've been openly critical of Trump for years. Why have so few Republican elected officials followed your lead?

Murphy: They have a lot more Republican primary voters to worry about than I do, I'm not the ballot!

That said, I am amazed after 30-plus years in this racket to see how many pols think being easily re-elected is the highest purpose they have in politics. It's not like we are asking these folks to land on Anzio beach or hold Pork Chop Hill ... all that is required is to show some guts against a blatant demagogue who is massively unprepared by temperament, knowledge or character to be President of the United States.

The threat, and now the problem, of somebody like that running amok in the Oval Office seems, at least to me, like something worth risking your re-election over. Yet our politics have become so careerist and tribal that way too many people seem to swallow their principles all too easily. It's very disappointing.

And I cannot image it's much fun to spend all of your time figuring out how to make yourself slide under a closed door to show you are both pro the "good" Trump and against the "bad" Trump at the same time. Of course after Trump is eventually driven from office, DC will be full of stories about the quiet yet brave patriots who courageously worked against Trump albeit from behind the scenes. Still, I have to applaud the exceptions; Lindsey Graham, Jeb Bush, Jeff Flake, Ben Sasse, John Kasich and a few more. The rest ought to study up on Vichy France.

Cillizza: Charlottesville. Is Trump's handling of what happened a real moment. As in, will Republicans look back and define his presidency as before Charlottesville and after it? If so, why? If not, why not?

Murphy: Yes, I think it was a true boiling-over point. I'm sure it did very little damage to Trump's hard core, but those folks are only enough to half-fill third-tier arenas in base GOP states, not hold the White House. And the energy of the anti-Trump forces is much higher now. Out here in California, they are beating their dreamcatchers into stabbing sticks. While there have been other Trump failures, it was this sad episode that truly revealed how Trump sees the world. He failed the big test of a President. He should have defended American values. Instead he proved he doesn't really understand what those values are. That has lit a very big political fuse.

Cillizza: What should Republican leaders -- in Congress and in the states -- do about Trump? Condemn? Censure? More?

Murphy: To their credit many did condemn Charlottesville, but it should have been far wider and it should have mentioned the President by name. On this issue subtlety is cowardice.

Cillizza: How much danger, in the long term, does Trump pose to the GOP if things continue as they have?

Murphy: Trump's numbers are horrible -- no surprise there after the seven months he's had -- and I don't know a single highly experienced GOP operative who is not deeply concerned about 2018 and the damage Trump is doing to our party.

That said, the future is unknown so I guess we'll have to wait and see. But if this isn't a complete smoldering train wreck, I don't know what one looks like. There remains a whiff of mystical faith in DC around Trump having the power to magically win after he proved the "experts," including me, wrong in 2016.

(But) the numbers show his win in 2016 was quite fluke-ish. He lost the popular vote by millions and only pulled his inside straight in the electoral college by a wafer-thin 78,000 or so votes out of nearly 14 million cast across Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. So his win was a bit of a card trick to begin with and his political strength today is much less than it was on election day in 2016. And demography is still marching against him.

Cillizza: Finish this sentence: "Donald Trump will be president until __________." Now, explain.

Murphy: Again, my crystal ball on Trump is 100% certified as badly cracked. But I'll try. "Donald Trump will be President until early 2019."

Here's why: First, he won't get better. There will be more Trump outrages, despite whatever staff shuffling occurs in the White House. Trump is the atomic clock of Trump craziness; he cannot change.

Second, I fear the GOP will have a very rough midterm election, particularly in the House. Although I want the GOP to win despite Trump, I'm pessimistic. I think (especially after Charlottesville and the next Trump Charlottesville-esque mess whatever that will be) that voting against Trump/the GOP will become a big social value for a lot of young, marginal voters in 2018. If these Democratic-leaning, presidential year voters show up to protest Trump in the midterms, we Republicans will face our worst turnout nightmare and we will lose the House.

If that happens, post-election Donald Trump will be alone, despised by his own party, a failure rebuked by the nation, and politically neutered even more than he is today. He'll channel-surf between reports of various D's and R's setting up to run against him for president in 2020. At that point I think President Trump will pine for the Tower. A resignation is far from impossible, if for no other reason than nothing is impossible with Trump. There is also the Mueller factor and whatever legal jeopardy his family could face. All unknown, but all potentially huge problems for him.

So, if anything, the timetable of trouble could speed up into a deal to leave office in 2018. But I think he'll want to fight out the midterms. If they go badly, I think he cuts his losses.

But this is all a wild guess and I've been wrong before.

Read the original:
Why one big-time Republican consultant thinks Trump won't be president by 2019 - CNN

A Republican state lawmaker in Idaho refused to back away Monday from claims that the deadly violence following a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, earlier this month might have been staged with the help of former President Barack Obama.

RepresentativeBryan Zollinger shared an article last week that suggested the Unite the Right marchwas orchestrated by Obama along with other leading Democrats, such as Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe, Charlottesville Mayor Michael Signer and billionaire donor George Soros.

Related: Donald Trump's Charlottesville response will continue to haunt him, says Watergate veteran

Keep up with this story and more by subscribing now

After his sharing of the article from a conservative site calledAmerican Thinker began to receive significant backlash on his Facebook page, Zollinger wrote that he thought the unsubstantiated piece was interesting and thought provoking and that some of the theories were plausible.

Despite the criticism from across Idaho and the country, Zollinger saidhe was not backing away from his belief that there was at least a kernel of truth in the article.

At first, I felt genuinely bad that maybe I had offended somebody, he said in an interview Monday with Idahos Post Register. Since then, the amazing amount of hate and the despicable things that have been said about myself, my wife, my kids, Ive doubled down.

American Thinker regularly posts articles with misleading claims. Its piece on Charlottesville questions whether the rallywas a set up to smear President Donald Trump as a racist.

What if Signer and McAuliffe, in conjunction with Antifa and other Soros-funded groups like Black Lives Matter, planned and orchestrated what happened in Charlottesville and meant for events to unfold roughly as they did? the article read.

White nationalist demonstrators hold shields as they clash with a group of counterprotesters in Charlottesville, Virginia, on August 12. Joshua Roberts/Reuters

Zollinger gave no suggestion of wanting to back away from sharing such unfounded speculation, even raising the possibility of direct involvement by Trumps predecessor.

[Obama] was a community organizer before he was the president of the United States, Zollinger said. Istill do think its plausible.

In Charlottesville, one woman died when a car, reportedlydriven by an individual with links to white supremacists, drove through a crowd of counterprotesters. In the aftermath, Trump received strong criticism, even from members of his own party, for blaming both sides for the violence. The president also said that there were very fine people on both sides, referring to the white nationalists and counterprotesters.

Original post:
Idaho Republican Insists It's 'Plausible' Barack Obama Staged Charlottesville White Nationalist Rally Violence - Newsweek

Still, the back-and-forth has been dramatic.

In a series of tweets this month, Mr. Trump criticized Mr. McConnell publicly, and berated him in a phone call that quickly devolved into a profane shouting match.

During the call, which Mr. Trump initiated on Aug. 9 from his New Jersey golf club, the president accused Mr. McConnell of bungling the health care issue. He was even more animated about what he intimated was the Senate leaders refusal to protect him from investigations of Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to Republicans briefed on the conversation.

Mr. McConnell has fumed over Mr. Trumps regular threats against fellow Republicans and criticism of Senate rules, and questioned Mr. Trumps understanding of the presidency in a public speech. Mr. McConnell has made sharper comments in private, describing Mr. Trump as entirely unwilling to learn the basics of governing.

In offhand remarks, Mr. McConnell has expressed a sense of bewilderment about where Mr. Trumps presidency may be headed, and has mused about whether Mr. Trump will be in a position to lead the Republican Party into next years elections and beyond, according to people who have spoken to him directly.

While maintaining a pose of public reserve, Mr. McConnell expressed horror to advisers last week after Mr. Trumps comments equating white supremacists in Charlottesville, Va., with protesters who rallied against them. Mr. Trumps most explosive remarks came at a news conference in Manhattan, where he stood beside Ms. Chao, the transportation secretary. (Ms. Chao, deflecting a question about the tensions between her husband and the president she serves, told reporters, I stand by my man both of them.)

Mr. McConnell signaled to business leaders that he was deeply uncomfortable with Mr. Trumps comments: Several who resigned advisory roles in the Trump administration contacted Mr. McConnells office after the fact, and were told that Mr. McConnell fully understood their choices, three people briefed on the conversations said.

Mr. Trump has also continued to badger and threaten Mr. McConnells Senate colleagues, including Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, whose Republican primary challenger was praised by Mr. Trump last week.

Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Flake Jeff Flake, who is WEAK on borders, crime and a non-factor in Senate, he tweeted last week. Hes toxic!

At a campaign rally in Phoenix on Tuesday, Mr. Trump alluded to Mr. Flake unfavorably, referring to him as weak on borders and weak on crime without mentioning him by name. He referred to Mr. McConnell only in passing, calling on him to abolish the Senate filibuster.

Senior Republican officials said before the rally that they would stand up for Mr. Flake against any attacks. A Republican super PAC aligned with Mr. McConnell released a web ad on Tuesday assailing Ms. Ward as a fringe-dwelling conspiracy theorist.

When it comes to the Senate, theres an Article 5 understanding: An attack against one is an attack against all, said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who has found himself in Mr. Trumps sights many times, invoking the NATO alliances mutual defense doctrine.

The fury among Senate Republicans toward Mr. Trump has been building since last month, even before he lashed out at Mr. McConnell. Some of them blame the president for not being able to rally the party around any version of legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act, accusing him of not knowing even the basics about the policy. Senate Republicans also say strong-arm tactics from the White House backfired, making it harder to cobble together votes and have left bad feelings in the caucus.

When Mr. Trump addressed a Boy Scouts jamboree last month in West Virginia, White House aides told Senator Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican from the state whose support was in doubt, that she could only accompany him on Air Force One if she committed to voting for the health care bill. She declined the invitation, noting that she could not commit to voting for a measure she had not seen, according to a Republican briefed on the conversation.

Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska told colleagues that when Mr. Trumps interior secretary threatened to pull back federal funding for her state, she felt boxed in and unable to vote for the health care bill.

In a show of solidarity, albeit one planned well before Mr. Trump took aim at Mr. Flake, Mr. McConnell will host a $1,000-per-person dinner on Friday in Kentucky for the Arizona senator, as well as for Senator Dean Heller of Nevada, who is also facing a Trump-inspired primary race next year, and Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska. Mr. Flake is expected to attend the event.

Former Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, a Republican who is close to Mr. McConnell, said frustration with Mr. Trump was boiling over in the chamber. Mr. Gregg blamed the president for undermining congressional leaders, and said the House and Senate would have to govern on their own if Mr. Trump cant participate constructively.

Failure to do things like keeping the government open and passing a tax bill is the functional equivalent of playing Russian roulette with all the chambers loaded, Mr. Gregg said.

Others in the party divide blame between Mr. Trump and Mr. McConnell. Al Hoffman, a former finance chairman of the Republican National Committee who has been supportive of Mr. McConnell, said Mr. McConnell was culpable because he has failed to deliver legislative victories. Ultimately, its been Mitchs responsibility, and I dont think hes done much, Mr. Hoffman said.

But Mr. Hoffman predicted that Mr. McConnell would likely outlast the president.

I think hes going to blow up, self-implode, Mr. Hoffman said of Mr. Trump. I wouldnt be surprised if McConnell pulls back his support of Trump and tries to go it alone.

An all-out clash between Mr. Trump and Mr. McConnell would play out between men whose strengths and weaknesses are very different. Mr. Trump is a political amateur, still unschooled in the ways of Washington, but he maintains a viselike grip on the affections of the Republican base. Mr. McConnell is a soft-spoken career politician, with virtuoso mastery of political fund-raising and tactics, but he had no mass following to speak of.

Mr. McConnell, while baffled at Mr. Trumps penchant for internecine attacks, is a ruthless pragmatist and has given no overt indication that he plans to seek more drastic conflict. Despite his private battles with Mr. Trump, Mr. McConnell has sent reassuring signals with his public conduct: On Monday, he appeared in Louisville, Ky., with Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, for a discussion of tax policy.

Mr. McConnells Senate colleagues, however, have grown bolder. The combination of the presidents frontal attacks on Senate Republicans and his claim that there were fine people marching with white supremacists in Charlottesville has emboldened lawmakers to criticize Mr. Trump in withering terms.

Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee rebuked Mr. Trump last week for failing to demonstrate the stability nor some of the competence required of presidents. On Monday, Senator Susan Collins of Maine said in a television interview that she was uncertain Mr. Trump would be the Republican presidential nominee in 2020.

There are few recent precedents for the rift. The last time a president turned on a legislative leader of his own party was in 2002, when allies of George W. Bush helped force Trent Lott to step down as Senate minority leader after racially charged remarks at a birthday party for Senator Strom Thurmond, Republican of South Carolina.

For the moment, Mr. McConnell appears to be far more secure in his position, and perhaps immune to coercion from the White House. Republicans are unlikely to lose control of the Senate in 2018, and Mr. Trump has no allies in the Senate who have shown an appetite for combat with Mr. McConnell.

Still, some allies of Mr. Trump on the right including Stephen K. Bannon, who stepped down last week as Mr. Trumps chief strategist welcome more direct conflict with Mr. McConnell and congressional Republicans.

Roger J. Stone Jr., a Republican strategist who has advised Mr. Trump for decades, said the president needed to take a scalp in order to force cooperation from Republican elites who have resisted his agenda. Mr. Stone urged Mr. Trump to make an example of one or more Republicans, like Mr. Flake, who have refused to give full support to his administration.

The president should start bumping off incumbent Republican members of Congress in primaries, Mr. Stone said. If he did that, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan would wet their pants and the rest of the Republicans would get in line.

But Mr. McConnells allies warn that the president should be wary of doing anything that could jeopardize the Senate Republican majority.

The quickest way for him to get impeached is for Trump to knock off Jeff Flake and Dean Heller and be faced with a Democrat-led Senate, said Billy Piper, a lobbyist and former McConnell chief of staff.

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A version of this article appears in print on August 23, 2017, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Presidents Feud With McConnell Becomes Hostile.

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McConnell, in Private, Doubts if Trump Can Save Presidency - New York Times