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Right now, congressional Republicans are in about the best possible position on health care: They showed that they can pass something (anything!) in the House, and now no one is paying any attention to it any more.

Its unlikely, though, that the Senate will end up doing nothing with the American Health Care Act, the Republican bill that passed the House earlier this month. Meaning that the party will again have to grapple with a complicated, deeply unpopular bill that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office figures will mean 23 million fewer people with health insurance in 10 years time.

New survey data from the Kaiser Family Foundation, though, serves as a reminder that pushing forward with the legislation could be politically problematic well past this year.

Only Republicans have a broadly favorable view of the legislation, with two-thirds of them holding that position. Democrats and independents, on net, view the AHCA more unfavorably than favorably. Only about 3-in-10 overall view it positively.

By contrast, nearly 50 percent of respondents held a positive view of the Affordable Care Act (better known as Obamacare) the legislation that the AHCA would replace. Three-in-10 hold strongly favorable views of Obamacare; 4-in-10 hold strongly negative views of the AHCA.

And thats why the AHCAs unpopularity is so problematic.

Obamacare is about as popular now as it has been at any point since its inception in 2010. Generally, opinions have been pretty consistently split, with about half the country viewing it negatively and half positively. The percent viewing it favorably now, though, is seven points higher than those viewing it unfavorably, one of the widest margins in the foundations polling.

Those views are not universally held, though. By party, theres a distinct split.

If that graph looks familiar to you, its because it strongly mirrors approval ratings for the man behind the name Obamacare, Barack Obama.

Theres a different scale there; Democrats like Obama more than Obamacare. But the pattern is the same: A broad partisan gulf, with favorable views rising among Democrats and independents over the last few years of Obamas time in office.

So far, were seeing a similar split in partisan views of Donald Trump. Republicans view him very positively and Democrats very negatively, without much movement up or down among either group.

So if the AHCA were passed and partisan views of it held in the way that views of Obamacare did? Congressional Republicans would be passing legislation that starts out less popular than Obamacare and which will likely be mired in the same partisan trenches over the length of its existence. Sure, theyll say, people will come to like the improved health-care plan that is much better than Obamacare. To which theres an easy response: As more people got coverage under Obamacare, views of the program didnt move much. It was only when the risk to Obamacare from Republican control of Washington emerged that the program became popular on net but even now, its only barely above water.

There is one key difference. A number of polls over the course of the last eight years determined that the Affordable Care Act was more popular than Obamacare indicating that views of the legislation were a function of partisan views of Obama himself. Perhaps views of the AHCA will be separated from views of Trump. After all, three-quarters of respondents in the foundations poll figured that none or only some of Trumps campaign pledges made it into the AHCA itself. His ownership of it is less obvious.

Oh, and theres another key difference: It has to pass. With poll numbers like these, that should certainly not be considered a certainty.

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A new reminder of the possible political disaster looming for Republicans on health care - Washington Post

Common Dreams

The Republican Party's Sickness of the Soul Common Dreams Sometimes people look at the cruelties in Republican policies and ask, How can these people live with themselves? Here's how: By telling elaborate lies and fictions so you don't have to face the cruelty and consequences of your own deeds every time ...

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The Republican Party's Sickness of the Soul - Common Dreams

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. The first speech of a marathon Memorial Day weekend went as well as Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.) could have hoped. He quoted his old boss, Ronald Reagan. He thanked the military for saving America, from its founding through those long years when communism threatened to establish atheist dictatorships around the world.

And after he wrapped, retirees in star-spangled polo shirts chased him down to thank him and to say how well hed done the other night on Fox News.

These people arent going to vote for Democrats, Rohrabacher said, strolling along the water on the way to his house. A lot of Republican women voted for Hillary. That is not going to translate into anything else next year. Trump is a very boisterous guy, and that was a turnoff for some people, but these are Reagan-type conservatives.

Democrats dont share that read on Rohrabachers district. In 2016, for the first time in 80 years, the Democratic presidential nominee carried Orange County, sweeping up districts including Rohrabachers beach-bound 48th. A stretch of pristine beaches and increasingly diverse suburbs, the 48th District had previously been one of the nations wellsprings of modern conservatism.

Down the ballot from Hillary Clinton, Democrats didnt recruit candidates to take advantage of Californias anti-Trump swing, and Rohrabacher kept his seat. But now, Democrats are trying to fix that and they view Rohrabacher, elected in 1988 and rarely challenged since, as a target.

Yet Rohrabacher, 69, is not behaving like a politician facing oblivion. Many of the 23 Republicans in districts that backed Clinton, or only narrowly backed Trump, have agonized over the American Health Care Act and grimaced when asked about the probe into possible Russian meddling in the election.

The reason: Like the north Atlanta suburbs where Jon Ossoff is trying to flip a seat for Democrats, Orange Countys coast is tempting Democrats with a rising electorate college-educated, rich, only two-thirds white.

Rohrabacher understands as much This is not a blue-collar area, he said but he does not acknowledge a larger political threat.

Rohrabacher, without question the most resolute supporter in Congress of closer ties to Russia, never grimaces. In an interview this weekend, and in the wake of stories about Russians sounding him out as a spy and colleagues joking that he was paid by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Rohrabacher simply restated his strategic theory: It is better for America to be friends with Russia than spit at it as an enemy.

I was hard-core anti-communist and anti-Soviet; I was never anti-Russian, said Rohrabacher, who paused the interview occasionally to say hi to neighbors on the walk home. The very same groups of people who are unrelenting in their hostility today wanted to be friends with Russia when it was run by atheistic communist dictators.

Democrats, who have put the 48th and other Orange County districts on their 2018 dream board, are convinced that Rohrabacher is busily un-electing himself.

He is who he is, but Republicans vote for him because hes a Republican, and weve never had much luck finding a challenger, said Fran Sdao, the chair of Orange Countys Democrats. This year, theyre coming out the woodwork.

Even lower-information voters, she suggested, could not miss the stories of Rohrabacher defending Trump or the Russian intrigue spilling into the paper every day. Hes gotten a lot more attention because of the Russia stuff.

Outside Orange County, Democrats cant quite agree on how big a part Russia should play in their 2018 comeback strategy. In the 48th District, its at least an irresistible hook. Los Angeles-area Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D), whose role on the House Intelligence Committee has made him a party star, has spent parts of congressional recesses introducing new candidates to party clubs; he did so for the Democrats favored candidate against Rohrabacher, Harley Rouda, earlier in May.

Rouda, a 55-year-old lawyer and businessman, had been in electoral politics for just a few weeks. If Hillary Clinton had won, I dont think Id be sitting here, Rouda said over coffee at a spot near Laguna Beachs sandy coast. If Romney was president, voters wouldnt be as engaged and enraged as they are now. Its about Trump and his cronies.

To take the House, Democrats are salivating over half a dozen California districts; in each one, theyre scouting for candidates who can run against the Republican majority by making their opponents infamous and sidestepping their own ideological swamps. Rouda, who donated $1,000 to John Kasichs presidential campaign, blends country club issues such as balancing the budget with left-wing issues such as a $15 minimum wage and a move toward single-payer health care.

Trump even praised the health-care system in Australia, he said.

Confidently, Rouda and Democrats speculate that simply informing Orange County voters who represents them in Congress would knock Rohrabacher out, and a few other Republicans besides. In 2010, Republicans found conservative districts that had been controlled by Democrats for generations falling their way, simply because they had candidates, money and a president to rally against.

Thats why raising enough money is so important, Rouda said. The Democrats tend to be very aware of his record; Republicans, I dont think, fully understand where he is. Most Republicans in this district are moderate. They do not want to see offshore drilling. They do believe in climate change. And we have a congressman who doesnt agree with them.

In some districts, embattled Republicans are adjusting by looking for political space. In Orange County, Rohrabacher sees no need. Over 24 hours of Memorial Day events, no voters came up to him to complain. A few encouraged the president to tweet less; more thanked the congressman for doing his job.

For many, the perception of that job has been shaped by a conservative media that has dug in against Democratic story lines. The Fox News segment that many constituents said theyd watched portrayed Rohrabacher as an avuncular victim of character smears, a surfer and public servant who had been attacked unfairly.

McCarthyism by its nature hurts people, makes it harder for them to do the jobs they do, Foxs Tucker Carlson said. Has this affected your life? I mean, youre running for reelection is this an issue in your campaign?

They have been putting out these hit pieces that are aimed at trying to convince people that I have been engaged in some type of illegal act or something, Rohrabacher replied. Its the same thing they are doing with Trump.

Later in the interview, Rohrabacher said hed been looking for proof that the coverage of Russia would amount to something. He cited the stories of Russia-linked hackers breaking into the Democratic National Committee allegations that did not convince him.

In The Washington Post interview Sunday, he asked how the newspaper had been able to run an article saying definitively that a murdered DNC staffer had nothing to do with the release of party documents to WikiLeaks and other sites.

I hope youre wrong, he said. The story says these various people had determined that there was a Russian connection to the hacking. Well, I havent seen any. Can you tell me any conclusion where the Russians were involved?

As he hustled to his next event, pausing at home to make (and share) an energy drink with yogurt, Rohrabacher explained that he knew too much about spycraft and intelligence to believe every accusation that blipped across the news.

There are people who work for the intelligence agencies who are very dedicated conservatives, right-wingers, patriots, he said. There are people who work for the agencies who are on the left. Just because they work for the agency, that doesnt mean you can always trust them. If an intelligence agency verifies this or that, I dont take that for granted.

Read more at PowerPost

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His district voted for Clinton, but this Republican congressman isn't worried - Washington Post

PHOENIX (AP) - U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake on Wednesday launched an effort to save the North American Free Trade Agreement even as President Donald Trump begins a renegotiation he promised during his election campaign.

The Arizona Republican said in an interview that the agreement known as NAFTA has been a huge boon to Arizona and the U.S. and that any honest accounting of the 23-year-old agreement shows that its been good for everybody. He said thats especially true in Arizona, where a boost in cross-border trade has increased jobs and economic growth. He said hes worried that an overhaul could essentially gut the positive effect of the trade deal.

The president campaigned on negotiating a new NAFTA deal with Canada and Mexico and called the current agreement a disaster. Aides signaled a potential pull out in April but Trump changed course and started the formal renegotiation process in mid-May.

Flake said he doesnt know what the president has in mind but could be supportive under the right circumstances.

If hes modernizing it, great, more power to him, Flake said. I think any honest accounting of NAFTA would show that its been good for everybody. Certainly good for Arizonas economy, good for the united States economy. When trade has gone from under $60 billion a year to over $600 billion a year, whats not to like?

The trade agreement has drawn criticism since it was being negotiated in the early 1990s, with some warning it would result in U.S. factory jobs moving to Mexico. The deal triggered a big boost in trade among the three counties when it went into effect in 1994, with farmers especially benefiting, but factory jobs did move south.

Flake hopes to gather success stories from Arizonans to help ensure any new agreement continues to spur job creation and growth. The effort is prompted in part by concerns that Trump will abandon the agreement.

In the campaign many times it was were going to rip it up - it was the worst trade deal ever negotiated, Flake said. Theres a lot of rhetoric that was tough.

There are other implications to pulling out of the deal, Flake said. They including influencing Mexican voters to move toward a populist president of their own, and putting pressure on migration by cutting employment in Mexico.

For us, obviously if Mexicos economy is better thats less pressure on the border, Flake said. The net of Mexican migrants is south rather than north. We have security arrangements that are better than they were, the Mexican economy is doing better, better rule of law, criminal justice reform is moving ahead that we worked with them on.

A lot of good things that we can point to, that if our trade relationship goes south, or sour I should say, then those things are in jeopardy, he said.

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Arizona Republican Sen. Flake highlighting NAFTA positives - Washington Times

Financially outgunned in the Virginia governors race GOP primary, Corey Stewart is trying to blow a hole in the conventional political wisdom that winning comes down to who racks up the biggest war chest.

The self-described Trump acolyte has been trying to make the most of his cash-strapped situation by turning to the Trump playbook, harnessing social media and harping on issues such as immigration that get the Republican base going.

On Wednesday he made the trek across the Potomac with a staffer and streamed through Facebook Live an attack against Ed Gillespie, the GOP front-runner, accusing him of being beholden to large corporations trying to undercut Americans with a stream of foreign workers.

He was the lobbyist on record for Tyson Foods when they smuggled in thousands of illegal aliens, taking American jobs and then, of course, exploiting these people you know, paying them next to nothing when they got here and making them work in inhumane conditions, Mr. Stewart said into a handheld camera phone. Not to mention the fact that the biggest victims here are those who are victims of crimes committed by illegal immigrants.

Mr. Gillespies campaign dismissed the attack as part of a constant stream of fabrication and falsehoods from Mr. Stewart.

Immigration has long been a thorny issue for Republicans a potentially powerful cudgel, as then-candidate Donald Trump proved in last years elections, but one that also invites charges of racism.

Its not the only area where Mr. Stewart, the chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, is following Mr. Trumps campaign playbook. Hes also trying to create the kind of online presence that made Mr. Trump the talk of the campaign in 2015, long before the first GOP primary.

I think that social media has transformed so many industries, but especially politics, Mr. Stewart said Wednesday after he launched his Facebook Live attack at Mr. Gillespie. You dont need $3 million to $3.8 million that Ed has raised in order to win a primary for [a] governors race anymore.

Mr. Stewart, 48, has remained loyal to Mr. Trump since getting fired as chairman of Mr. Trumps Virginia campaign over a dustup with the Republican National Committee. He signaled Wednesday he hopes to recreate some of the social media magic that helped Mr. Trump win the 2016 election.

But, unlike Mr. Trump, Mr. Stewart has consistently trailed in the polls and on the fundraising front.

Mr. Gillespie, who served as a top adviser to President George W. Bush, has raised about $3 million more than Mr. Stewart, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, and leads him by 20 percentage points in a Washington Post-Schar School poll released this month. Also in the GOP race is state Sen. Frank Wagner.

Searching for ways to make up ground, Mr. Stewart has turned in part to first-person riffs on social media that have been viewed by tens of thousands and feature him, among other things, knocking Establishment Ed for not taking a firmer stand against Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe on illegal immigration and against Democrats who want to tear down the states Confederate memorials.

While Mr. Stewart isnt the political neophyte Mr. Trump was when entering the GOP presidential primary, hes never run statewide in Virginia. Mr. Gillespie, however, ran a closer-than-expected battle to unseat U.S. Sen. Mark R. Warner, a Democrat, in 2014.

Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, said Mr. Stewarts strategy suggests he knows how difficult his path to the nomination is.

Hes trying to activate a base that is not terribly large using overheated rhetoric, divisive issues and wrapping himself in the Confederate flag, Mr. Rozell said. The latest statewide poll has Gillespie way up over Stewart right now. So Stewart has to count on most of his base showing up and most of Gillespies supporters sitting out the primary. Very, very long shot strategy.

This weeks immigration attack stems from a Washington Post report highlighting the work Mr. Gillespies firm, Quinn Gillespie and Associates, did on behalf of Tyson Foods after the chicken processing giant was prosecuted for hiring illegal immigrants.

Mr. Stewarts Facebook post read: LIVE! From Quinn-Gillespie lobbyists in DC to discuss the Washington Posts bombshell article about Eds complicity in Human Trafficking.

A jury acquitted Tyson Foods of the charges in 2003, and Abbi Sigler, a spokeswoman for Mr. Gillespie, said her boss wasnt involved in the matter anyway.

Tyson Foods retained Quinn Gillespie in 2001 to provide public relations services dealing with charges for which a jury later found the company not guilty, Ms. Sigler said. As The Washington Post reported, Tysons made clear the firm was not retained to lobby on the issue and Ed was not involved in the day-to-day work for them.

Mr. Gillespie has promised to stiffen immigration enforcement in Virginia, including encouraging state and local police to sign up to help federal officials and cracking down on so-called sanctuary cities that try to thwart enforcement.

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Corey Stewart, Republican candidate for Virginia governor, applies Trump playbook in election - Washington Times