LONDON As Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz announced on March 23 that he is running for president, his Virginia audience cheered. He dropped applause line after applause line on some 10,000 students at Liberty University, which bills itself as the largest Christian university in the world.
Cruz riffed, unimaginatively, on an imagine theme, asking the young audience to imagine a president who would repeal Obamacare and perform other feats. There was applause throughout. But one line prompted the students to erupt into a roaring, 30-second, standing ovation: Instead of a president who boycotts Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, imagine a president who stands unapologetically with the nation of Israel.
It brought down the house.
There can be little doubt. Evangelical Christian voters, a key component of the Republican Party base, are wild about Israel. They are also furious about what they see as President Barack Obamas rough treatment of the current custodian of the Holy Land, Netanyahu. This fervent evangelical support for Israel could help a GOP candidate seize the Republican Partys presidential nomination and then capture the White House.
Among conservative Republicans, according to a July 2014 Pew Research poll, 77 percent back Israel, while only 4 percent favor the Palestinians in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Among all Republicans and voters who lean Republican, 78 percent of white evangelical Protestants sympathize with Israel, compared again to just 4 percent who side with the Palestinians.
Evangelicals have a passion for Israel. Forty-six percent of white evangelicals believe that Washington is not supportive enough of Israel, according to an October 2013 Pew Research poll. Only 31 percent of Americas Jews feel the same way. The animating force behind Christian passion for Israel can be found in the Bible. Eighty-two percent of white evangelicals believe Israel was given to the Jews by God. Among Jews, only 40 percent find a divine hand behind a Jewish Israel. Many evangelicals believe biblical prophecy that Israels existence is necessary to set the stage for the return of Jesus Christ.
Evangelicals might also view Israel as a reliable steward of the Holy Land. Israel has maintained many Christian sites and keeps the areas accessible to visitors. Should Islamic extremists such as the Islamic State group, which is busy destroying historical artifacts ever seize control of a Palestinian state, results for sacred Christian sites could be catastrophic.
But support on the American right for Israel may also have to do with an attitude toward Islam informed by national security concerns. Pew found in a June 2014 survey that 72 percent of those describing themselves as steadfast conservatives believe the Islamic religion is more likely than others to encourage violence, compared to just 13 percent of liberals.
Traditionally, backing for Israel has been viewed as a lure for Jewish votes. That will still be true during the 2016 presidential cycle, particularly in the general election. This has long bolstered the Democratic Party, however. With Republican candidates advocating strong support for Israel, they could cause many Jewish voters to defect to the GOP, and undermine the Democratic nominee.
Jewish voters in Florida, which Obama won in 2012, counted for 5 percent of the states vote. Given the extreme tightness of the presidential contests there, a shift of Jewish voters to the Republican camp could turn the state from blue to red.
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GOPs road to power runs through Israel