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Overview

The South Carolina Republican primary is Saturday.Since 1980, with the exception of 2012, the winner of the Republican primary here has gone on to be the party's nominee. That year, Newt Gingrich finished ahead of Mitt Romney.

This is an open primary. Any registered voter that did not vote in the Democratic primary three weeks ago is eligible to participate.

Nikki Haley was elected twice as governor here, resigning halfway through her second term in January, 2017 to join the Trump Administration as U.N. Ambassador. Fast forward seven years and she is now Trump's only remaining major challenger for the Republican nomination.

Less prominent candidates Ryan Binkley and David Stuckenberg are also on the ballot, along with three others that have withdrawn from the race.

Trump has runwell ahead in the polls, leading 62% to 35% in the final 270toWin Average. An outcome close to this, while still showing significant support for Haley, will leave her with few, if any, delegates.

Live Results

Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

Delegates

There are 50 total delegates. 29 are allocated based on the statewide vote, with three delegates awarded on the vote in each of the state's seven congressional districts. In each case, it is winner take all.

Bookmark ouraggregate delegate count mapto keep track through the primary and caucus season as candidates accumulate delegates toward the 1,215 needed to win the Republican nomination.

A Note on Republican Delegate Allocations

South Carolina is the only state authorized by the national party to have a plurality winner take all allocation prior to March 15.

Other states can back into winner take all with a threshold set at no less than a majority of the vote. Where no candidate meets the criteria, some variation on a proportional allocation is offered, often subject to a minimum threshold.

Most of the upcoming Super Tuesday states have taken this approach. Some, like California, allocate all delegates based on the statewide vote. Others work like South Carolina, allocating a portion of the delegates based on the vote in each congressional district.

As a practical matter, with only two major candidates remaining, there will be a majority winner in most of the Super Tuesday states. Barring a shift in the race, it will be difficult for Haley to amass many delegates. In fact, Trump's team believes their candidate will clinch the nomination on March 12.

Bookmark the 2024 Presidential Election Calendar

Starting March 5, some states include the presidential primary alongside the primary for other offices (e.g., Congress, Legislature)

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Overview and Live Results: South Carolina Republican Primary - 270toWin - 270toWin

This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIMEs politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox.

In the mythologies of the modern conservative movement, no figure stands taller than Ronald Reagan. But his shadow is shrinking faster than a lot of Republicans realize.

Reagan was the voice that placed Barry Goldwaters name forward for the presidential nomination in 1964. He inaugurated what was then known as the Conservative Political Action Conferencewhich is now known as CPAC and starts todaywith a landmark speech in 1974 that employed the city on a hill rhetoric that would pepper so many of his remarks over the next 15 years. Once he was in the White House, Reagan was perhaps the most effective American Cold Warrior, helping guide almost a half century of antipathy between democratic Washington and communist Moscow to an end. Reagans agenda benefited from a sincere friendship with his Soviet counterpart, Mikhail Gorbachev, whom he ordered in Berlin to tear down this walleven over objections from the U.S. State Department and National Security Council. For close to 40 years, Republicans across the spectrum have found a way to somehow invite comparisons to The Gipper, including his Cold War victory over a geopolitical rival he branded The Evil Empire.

Reagan, it has to be said, was pretty spot-on when it came to his assessment of the then-Soviet Union and prescient about its next stage. Its heir, modern Russia, never fully shed its inclinations toward autocracy or foreign meddling. Its why even in the cooled rivalry between the two capitals there has never been a full thaw. Last weeks Munich Security Conference began hours after news broke of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalnys death. The German Chancellor devoted his entire speech at the Peace Through Dialogue confab to the threats from Moscow. Here in the United States, Navalnys death drew Reaganesque condemnation in stark moral terms from all corners of the political arena.

Well, nearly all corners.

Donald Trump, the former President and current Republican frontrunner for renomination, has stubbornly refused to condemn Russia or President Vladimir Putin for their role in Navalnys death in a remote arctic prison. In turn, he blamed Navalny for returning to Russia after an earlier attempt on his lifehe would have been better served staying away and talking from outside of the countryand then baselessly likened his own legal woes to those of Navalny, who as Putins chief critic never stood a shot at a fair trial in Russia.

Those comments came just days after Trumps admonition that Russia should feel free to attack any NATO member that isnt paying its fair share, further casting doubt on hisand, in turn, U.S.commitment to the defense alliance that requires any attack on a member be met with a response from all. I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want, Trump said.

For years, the party treated Trumps Putin adoration as something to be ignored or grudgingly tolerated. Thats no longer a tenable position. With Russian forces capturing Avdiivka while a desperate Ukraine waits for U.S. aid blocked by the House GOP Caucus, Trumps apologist posture toward Russia and the Republican Partys position are essentially indistinguishable; its a dynamic that has enormous consequences across the globe.

The clearest sign of the partys shift may be apparent at this weeks CPAC, where a whos who of conservative luminaries will deliver speeches, most of which are likely to either avoid mentioning or waive away inconvenient stories like Navalnys death, the stakes of Ukraines fight for self-determination, or the bombshell news that the GOPs drive to impeach President Joe Biden may have been largely orchestrated by Russian intelligence.

Trump has been consistently against helping Ukraine defend itself against the Russian invasion and onslaught. Back in 2019, Ukraines leader didnt bend to Trumps request to weaponize the justice system in Kyiv to hurt Biden, so this is personal.

Republicans have tried to have it both ways, striking a critique of Putins regime while saying Biden cannot counter Moscows aggression. Antagonizing Trump is not a good gambit, as so many vanquished rivals have learned the hard way. Its why Sen. J.D. Vance, an Ohio Republican, has aggressively tried to sour his new colleagues on spending in Ukraine, suggested Ukraine concede with land transfers to Russia, and most recently, floated the notion that the proposed money for Ukraine was actually a backdoor scheme to begin impeachment proceedings against Trump should he win. (No, really.)

Speaker Mike Johnson, whose grip on the Speakers gavel is weak given his partys razor-thin majority, has been offering his own master class in compliance. As long as Trump opposes sending desperately needed help to Ukraine, there will be no immediate votea reality that could complicate even keeping the government open in the coming weeks.

Thats not to say Trumps takeover is absolute. Down in her home state of South Carolina, former Gov. Nikki Haley has been on a slow-and-steady effort to block Trump from another nomination, starting with the states primary on Saturday. After nearly a year of prevaricating, Trumps former envoy to the United Nations has finally dropped the pretense of trying to be MAGA Minus the Red Hat. "Of course, many of the same politicians who now publicly embrace Trump privately dread him," Haley said. "They know what a disaster he's been and will continue to be for our party. They're just too afraid to say it out loud."

Haleys diagnosis is not wrong, especially in the norm-favoring Senate. Donors dont love Trump but see him as the most viable option these days to make Biden a one-termer. House lawmakers may harbor some of these same inclinations, but they fear their constituents who may decide defiance of Trump or his allies is sufficient justification for a primary challenge.

Which, taken as a snapshot, reveals a party far removed from Reagans soaring rhetoric: We raised a banner of bold colors; no pale pastels. Reagan viewed communism as a direct threat to what he saw as Americas greatness and called the Soviets the focus of evil in the modern world. The United States supported anti-communist efforts in Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Angola, and Cambodia. He told aides before the famous summit with Gorbachev in Reykjavik that he wanted to get rid of those atomic weapons, every one." And when Reagan got it wrongas he did when his administration engaged in the arms-for-hostages Iran Contra Affair that left only 12% of Americans believing he was telling the truth about an effort driven by a desire to confront communismhe fessed up. And when he left office, Reagan was the most popular President heading into retirement since FDR.

Trump is no Reagan in ways great and small. Trump defended Putin in the face of proof that Russian-linked operations meddled in the 2016 election; as he departed the Oval Office, highly classified documents related to that investigation went missing. While President, Trump shared sensitive intelligence documents with a Russian ambassador widely believed to be a spy. Where Reagan sought to spread democracy far and wide, Trump tried to hold onto power by subverting it at a rally that turned violent on Jan. 6, 2021.

And Republicans have gone along with all of it. They looked the other way on intelligence breaches, and failed to convict Trump during a record two impeachment trials. And, even in the face of evidence that their impeachment payback of Biden is based on an FBI informant now indicted for telling lies that he alleges started in Russia to hurt Biden, House Republicans say theyll plow forward regardless. The fact that the cornerstone of their case against Biden originated with Russian spooks and bogus claims of checks sent to Biden family members from Ukraine is inconsequential in their march to help Trumps chances of returning to Washington. And as Ukraine struggles in its fight against Russia, it seems those Republicans are ready to abandon the former Soviet republic because Trump has a grudge.

Its quite an act of intentional forgetting on the part of the Republican Party to set aside their lionized legend of Reagan in service of another TV talent, one who seems to hold Reagan-era precedents in contempt and share little of his admiration for democracy. Yet this is the current work of a large cut of the contemporary GOP. For a lot of conservatives, it has not been easy to get over their first crush, but they have another charismatic figure at the ready. Or at least one refusing to retreat.

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Originally posted here:
How Putin Co-Opted the Republican Party - TIME

A supporter of former President Donald Trump drives past campaign signs for Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley in Irmo, South Carolina. The state's Republican presidential primary is on Feb. 24. SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images hide caption

A supporter of former President Donald Trump drives past campaign signs for Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley in Irmo, South Carolina. The state's Republican presidential primary is on Feb. 24.

South Carolina votes Saturday in the state's Republican primary, and former President Donald Trump is expected to defeat the state's former governor, Nikki Haley.

Haley is trying hard to overcome the odds, spending millions of dollars on the airwaves, dwarfing what Trump and his allies are spending.

But even if she loses, Haley says she's sticking around.

"South Carolina will vote on Saturday," Haley said in a speech this week. "But on Sunday, I'll still be running for president. I'm not going anywhere."

Her road will perhaps be even more daunting after South Carolina, but before looking beyond the Palmetto State, let's take a look at the keys to winning the state and how it all works.

The primary is locally run at the county level and ultimately certified by South Carolina's State Election Commission. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET, and there are more than 2,000 polling precincts.

Fifty the most of any state so far. Still, after South Carolina's Republican primary, just 6% of the total number of delegates to the Republican National Convention will have been awarded. At this point, Trump leads Haley 63-17 in delegates. A candidate needs 1,215 to be the nominee.

Winner-take-all by statewide vote and based on how a candidate finishes in the state's seven congressional districts.

There have been very few reliable polls ahead of the South Carolina primary, so any data should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, in an average of the polls, Trump leads by about 30 percentage points.

There are four distinct political regions: the Lowcountry, Pee Dee, the Midlands and the Upstate. In 2016, Trump won the primary with 32.5%, and it was pretty spread out, with him winning all but two of the state's 46 counties. He narrowly lost Charleston County (Lowcountry) and Richland County (Midlands), which is home to Columbia, the state capital.

Haley is trying hard to remind voters of her record as South Carolina's governor, but demographically in a Republican primary against Trump, South Carolina is an uphill climb for her.

So far, Haley has done well with Republican-leaning independents, and Trump with self-described Republicans. But even in New Hampshire, where almost half were independents, Haley still lost by 11 percentage points.

And historically, South Carolina's GOP primary voters are more conservative and more religious. Perhaps most importantly, though, there have traditionally been far fewer independents than in New Hampshire.

In Iowa, 82% of caucusgoers identified as Republicans, and Trump won there by 30 percentage points. In New Hampshire, 50% of primary voters identified as Republicans, and there he won by 11 points.

Haley's team points out that, like New Hampshire, independents are allowed to vote in South Carolina's primary. But in 2016, 76% of South Carolina GOP primary voters were Republicans.

That makes Saturday a tough contest for Haley and it doesn't get any easier heading into Super Tuesday.

More:
What to know about South Carolina's Republican primary - NPR

The first-in-the-nation primary could be the last stand for the anti-Trump Republican.

Since 2016, a shrinking band of Republican strategists, retired lawmakers and donors has tried to oust Donald J. Trump from his commanding position in the party. And again and again, through one Capitol riot, two impeachments, three presidential elections and four criminal indictments, they have failed to gain traction with its voters.

Now, after years of legal, cultural and political crises that upended American norms and expectations, what could be the final battle of the anti-Trump Republicans wont be waged in Congress or the courts, but in the packed ski lodges and snowy town halls of a state of 1.4 million residents.

Ahead of New Hampshires primary on Tuesday, the old guard of the G.O.P. has rallied around Nikki Haley, viewing her bid as its last, best chance to finally pry the former president from atop its party. Anything but a very close finish for her in the state, where moderate, independent voters make up 40 percent of the electorate, would send Mr. Trump on an all-but-unstoppable march to the nomination.

The Trump opposition is outnumbered and underemployed. The former presidents polarizing style and hard-nosed tactics have pushed many Republicans who oppose him into early retirement and humiliating defeats, or out of the party completely. Yet, their long-running war against him has helped to frame the nominating contest around a central, and deeply tribal, litmus test: loyalty to Mr. Trump.

Gordon J. Humphrey, a former New Hampshire senator, was a conservative power broker during the Reagan era but left the party after Mr. Trump won the presidential nomination in 2016. This year, he has produced anti-Trump Facebook videos aimed at encouraging college students and independent voters who, polls show, are more likely to support Ms. Haley over Mr. Trump.

Its very big stakes, Mr. Humphrey, 83, said. If he wins here, Trump will be unstoppable.

Campaigning across the state this week for Ms. Haley, Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, a moderate Republican, argued that the man who remade the party in his image is not its best standard-bearer.

Trump does not represent the Republican Party, said Mr. Sununu as he campaigned with Ms. Haley at a rustic event space in Hollis, N.H. He does not represent the conservative movement. Trump is about Trump.

Large numbers of Republicans disagree. Mr. Trump, who was trailing in some primary polls only a year ago, now has support from nearly two-thirds of the party, according to an average of national polls by the data-driven news site FiveThirtyEight. In the Iowa caucuses on Monday, Mr. Trump demolished his rivals by nearly 30 percentage points, winning almost every demographic, geographic region and other slice of the electorate.

Elected Republicans have rallied around the former president. On Friday, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina endorsed Mr. Trump at a rally in Concord, N.H. Even Mr. Sununu Ms. Haleys most potent political backer in New Hampshire has acknowledged that he would support Mr. Trump if he wins the partys nomination for a third time.

Some of Mr. Trumps strongest opponents doubt that after so many defeats, they will be successful. Barbara Comstock, a longtime Republican official who was swept out of her suburban Virginia congressional seat in the 2018 midterm backlash to Mr. Trump, said she believed the former president would win the nomination. The only way the party will finally be rid of Mr. Trump, she said, is if he loses in 2024, an outcome she thinks could cost Republicans scores of congressional seats.

He has to lose and drag down even more people with him on the ballot and thats the only thing that changes it, said Ms. Comstock, who opposes Mr. Trump. You lose, and its bad, and you lost for a second time to a really weak guy.

Recent polling that shows Ms. Haley trailing Mr. Trump by double digits in New Hampshire underscores her uphill battle on Tuesday. Yet even if Ms. Haley can overcome the odds in New Hampshire, she faces the question of whats next.

A loss next month in a crucial matchup in her home state of South Carolina, where she also trails by double digits, could depress her momentum heading into March, when two-thirds of all Republican primary delegates are up for grabs.

But a victory would give her momentum heading into the Super Tuesday contests on March 5. Twelve of the 16 primaries on Super Tuesday allow independents or other voters to participate, a dynamic that has helped keep Ms. Haley competitive in New Hampshire.

The extraordinary nature of this primary race could alter those calculations. Some strategists say that if Ms. Haley does not win outright, she should hold on until the Supreme Court decides whether Mr. Trumps name will appear on the ballot in Colorado, Maine and other states. Democrats and some election officials have argued that his role in trying to overthrow the 2020 election should disqualify him for running again.

Still, the strong loyalty Mr. Trump continues to command within his own party has caused Ms. Haley and her backers to make a careful, and somewhat tortured, case for her nomination. Ms. Haley has continued to temper her attacks on Mr. Trump, casting her candidacy less as an existential choice about the future of democracy and more as a moment of generational change.

Speaking to reporters at a diner in Amherst, Ms. Haley cautiously drew a contrast between herself and Mr. Trump. This is about, do you want more of the same? Or do you want something different? she said.

Ron DeSantis, Ms. Haleys other rival, is largely skipping the state to campaign in South Carolina, the next primary in the calendar and one where the Florida governor believes he has a better chance of making a strong showing.

New Hampshire primary voters have a history of propelling underdog candidates, including in 2000, when John McCain appealed to independents and defeated George W. Bush, who, like Mr. Trump, was the heavy favorite. A record 322,000 voters are expected to turnout for the Tuesday primary, according to the New Hampshire secretary of state. The surge could portend a spike in participation from independents, who can participate in the primary. So-called undeclared voters can take part by choosing a ballot from either party at the polling place.

Part of the problem faced by the anti-Trump wing is one of simple mathematics. A majority of the Republican Party remains staunchly supportive of the former president. But many of the moderate and independent voters who oppose Mr. Trump have voted for Democratic candidates in several election cycles, decreasing the likelihood that they would back another Republican candidate.

These changes have occurred along class lines, with college-educated and higher-income voters largely flocking to the Democratic Party. Mr. Trumps populist appeals boosted white working-class support for Republicans.

Many of the college-educated moderates who used to buttress strategies like this for people like McCain in New Hampshire have self-deported from the Republican Party, said Representative Matt Gaetz, a stalwart Trump backer from Florida. Like, Nikki Haley Republicans arent actually even Republicans anymore.

In a campaign memo earlier this month, top Trump strategists accused Ms. Haley of creating a campaign designed to co-opt and take over a G.O.P. nominating contest with non-Republicans and Democrats.

Mr. Trump has echoed that message as he campaigned across New Hampshire in recent days.

Nikki Haley is counting on Democrats and liberals to infiltrate your Republican primary, he said on Wednesday night in Portsmouth. Ms. Haley, he said, is endorsed by all of the RINOs, globalists, Never Trumpers and Crooked Joe Bidens biggest donors.

Ms. Haley has countered that is a lie, noting that Democrats have not been able to change their votes for months and cannot vote in a Republican primary. Any registered Democrat wishing to vote in the Republican primary had to change their party affiliation by Oct. 6. Nearly 4,000 voters did so before the deadline, according to the states secretary of state.

But Ms. Haley has also defended her appeal to a broad spectrum of voters.

What I am doing is telling people what Im for, she said during her CNN town hall on Thursday night. If independents and conservative and moderate Republicans like that, I love that. If conservative Democrats are saying, I want to come back home to the Republican Party, because they left it, I want them back.

At an American Legion hall in Rochester, N.H., several formerly Republican voters who opposed Mr. Trump said they were no longer sure how to describe their political affiliation.

I am not particularly happy with the way the Republican Party is headed, said Kristi Carroll, 51, who described herself as a stay-at-home mother and who came to hear Ms. Haley. I am not sure I am even Republican anymore. I am trying to figure it out.

Ms. Carroll backed Mr. Trump in 2016 but not in 2020. And she doesnt plan on supporting him in 2024 even if the former president wins the partys nomination.

After Iowa, I am pretty nervous about the direction of the country, and I am nervous that if Haley doesnt get the nomination, then I will be voting for a Democrat, which is fine, as long as it is not Trump, Ms. Carroll said. Isnt that awful? I hate to be like that, but thats the truth.

A few rows behind her in the crowded room, Chuck Collins, 62, a retired Navy captain and engineer from Alton Bay, N.H., said he used to consider himself a Republican. After voting for Democrats in the last two presidential elections, he now calls himself an independent. Still, he believed a moderate Republican wing would eventually re-emerge.

We have to have two healthy parties, whether youre Republican or Democrat, Mr. Collins said. You have to have two teams to have a game.

Michael Gold contributed reporting from Portsmouth, N.H.

Original post:
For the Anti-Trump Wing of the G.O.P., It All Comes Down to Tuesday - The New York Times

We only care about damaging Donald Trump, said Schwartz. For better or for worse, the only thing you can do if you really want to stop Trump is to vote for Haley.

By his own admission, Schwartzs crusade is a long shot. As of October, when New Hampshire requires voters to select their party affiliation, just 3,500 people had switched their registration from Democratic to undeclared it will take many, many more undeclared voters to cast a ballot for Haley next week to make a noticeable dent in Trumps polling lead. History, moreover, is not on Schwartz side: Similar efforts to mobilize New Hampshires undeclared voters in 2020 and 2016 came up notably short. (Similarly, in 2008 Rush Limbaugh launched Operation Chaos to delay the Democrats settling on a nominee.)

But in our conversation, Schwartz explained why he thinks 2024 might be different.

The following has been edited for clarity and concision.

Is there any indication that your strategy is working?

I think the fact that over 3,500 Democrats became undeclared before the October deadline was one initial indicator. The other indicator is that weve heard in surveys that the top issue for over 90 percent of left-leaning undeclared voters is stopping Donald Trump. And then the third is that, anecdotally, I have been in so many conversations with people who say, Oh, Im a Democrat and I missed the registration deadline, but I wish I could have changed over to vote in the Republican primary. Almost all the undeclared voters that I have talked to and I talked to a lot of Democratic-leaning voters are considering voting in the Republican primary. Not all of them will get there, but we can bring a horse to water. We cant make them drink.

How much of your efforts were directed toward getting Democratic voters to switch their party affiliation to undeclared, and how much has been dedicated to persuading already undeclared voters to vote in the Republican primary for Haley?

I would say we made a very limited effort focused on Democrats, because everyone told us that the process was too complicated, and we werent going to get Democrats to become undeclared. We spent about $2,000 to send text messages to 38,000 people, and 3,500 Democrats switched to undeclared. Our focus has been on the 130,000 undeclared voters who voted in the 2020 Democratic primary, because theyre high-propensity voters in the primaries, and they can easily switch to vote in the Republican primary. Weve already spent over $500,000 on the undeclared voters.

What sort of messaging are you finding to be most effective with those voters?

You have to mention who people should vote for and at this point, thats Nikki Haley. You have to say that shes actually viable in the polls, because left-leaning undeclared voters will not vote in the Republican primary unless they think shes within a few points meaning they can make a difference and stop Trump.

Another very effective message from our testing is a comparison chart between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley on how they handled Jan. 6, how they approach racism and hatred in this country, and how they deal with military service and military veterans. Most left-leaning people have been barraged by the media to think that Trump and Haley are the same and theyre both MAGA one is just MAGA lite. What we are trying to explain is that if you think about the issues most important to our democracy, Haley and Trump are night and day.

And then the final message weve found effective is a more emotional message along the lines of Imagine how you will feel on January 23 if Trump loses, if he rages and sends angry tweets. People already know how angry they are at Trump, but everyone else is just complaining about it. Were actually giving people something concrete to do about it.

Are you finding that left-leaning undeclared voters have an instinctual opposition to voting for a Republican like Haley? Can you overcome that knee-jerk reaction?

When you first have the conversation with them, most people are disgusted by Nikki Haleys positions on abortion or climate change. I cant tell you how many times they say, Well, I wont vote for somebody who will pardon Donald Trump. My response to that is, So you would rather let the criminal win than help select the person whos going to pardon the criminal?

Were just trying to get people to see that if you write in Biden, youre throwing away your vote. If you write in Dean Phillips, youre not only throwing away your vote youre actually hurting Trumps competitors and therefore helping Trump win. For better or for worse, the only thing you can do if you really want to stop Trump is to vote for Haley.

The Democratic Party in New Hampshire has come out against your strategy. What do you make of their opposition?

They were opposed to Democrats becoming undeclared, which I understand although almost all those undeclared voters will go back to being Democrats after this primary. When I have said that Donald Trump is an existential and unique threat to our democracy, they have repeatedly said that Chris Christie and Nikki Haley are also existential threats to the planet and to our democracy, because of their positions on abortion and climate change. They have attacked me for taking a photo with the popular governor, Chris Sununu. So if you want extreme partisanship, I think theyre doing a good job of showing that.

Can you expect anything different, though? Is it reasonable to expect the Democratic Party of New Hampshire to get behind an effort to get people to vote for their opposition?

I would say that if youve spent 10 years saying that Donald Trump is a unique, existential threat to democracy, and then six months before the primary, you start saying that every Republican is a unique and existential threat, you have lost all of your credibility.

Trump has started alluding to efforts like yours in his stump speeches and citing them as examples of election interference. At a recent rally, he even called for Sununu to change the rules in New Hampshire to prevent Democrats and independents from voting in the Republican primary. Do you worry at all that youre playing into his efforts to discredit the outcome of the primary?

Its rich coming from Donald Trump, given that in 2020 he called upon Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary for the weakest candidate. I would also say that past attempts to change the rules have failed, and it is insulting to undeclared voters who have always voted and will continue to vote in the Republican primary. It shows a fear of undeclared voters and the power that they have, given that they are the largest voting bloc in New Hampshire.

It is a tactical mistake for him to say he doesnt want any undeclared voter to vote in the Republican primary. That may play well in other states, but it will not play well here in New Hampshire.

Trump is suggesting in his speeches that these efforts are being backed by shadowy Democratic interests. Can you say whos funding your efforts?

We raised $20,000 among family and friends when we launched this organization, and we have invested all of that money into voter data files and messaging campaigns. A couple of people who wanted to stop Trump saw our efforts, and they have given us $650,000.

I will say that, around November and December, we saw some very prominent businesspeople like Jamie Dimon and Reid Hoffman come out with a similar strategy of encouraging people to vote for Haley in the primary and Biden in the general. So this idea has caught on. Its not just taking hold among a fringe group.

After the primary, how will you know if your efforts have succeeded?

We only care about damaging Donald Trump. So even though we have very limited control of the results and how Nikki Haley performs, if she is able to close this race to within single digits, that shows its a competition. Thats one metric of success. We are also very data-driven, and we are doing a large randomized-control trial so we will be able to study if our efforts had any impact from a more academic perspective.

But is there a topline number of voters in the Republican primary that would indicate that left-leaning undeclared voters turned out in large numbers?

In 2012 and 2016, there were almost exactly 100,000 undeclared voters who voted in the Republican primary. In 2020, there were 130,000 undeclared voters who voted in the Democratic primary. So well view it as successful if approximately 130,000 undeclared voters vote in the Republican primary. We anticipate there will be about 160,000 registered Republicans.

So the turnout is superimportant. The only way you can beat Trump is with a large turnout, because hes going to get his core supporters, which will be somewhere between 100,000 and 130,000 voters. If the turnout is above 300,000 people, then an opponent has a chance to make it close.

If its successful, can this strategy travel to other states, or is it only viable in New Hampshire?

We envision this effort as a national effort but we also understand that if Trump wins by double digits in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the race is over and we will likely fold up. If, however, Nikki Haley can get this to a single-digit race well, South Carolina is a totally open primary, and the Democrats will have already voted on February 3. Michigan is a totally open primary.

If Nikki Haley can survive South Carolina which is a ruby-red Trump state then what we are most excited about is Super Tuesday. Virginia is a totally open primary with lots of voters who dont like Trump. Massachusetts is 61 percent independent and 30 percent Democratic. Colorado is a semi-open primary. Minnesota is semi-open primary. Vermont is an open primary. We think Nikki Haley, if she survived South Carolina, can win in all six of those states.

How likely do you think that is?

Some people will say that is a fantastical scenario. We know that it is an extremely narrow path, and we are realistic that Trump will likely be the nominee. But if Nikki Haley is going to win or have even a small chance of winning, this is what we think her narrow path will look like.

Read the original here:
Inside the campaign to get Democrats to vote for Nikki Haley - POLITICO - POLITICO