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Former President Trump’s muddled messages on early voting risk hurting Republicans as they look to revamp their strategy heading into 2024.

During a town hall interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity this week, Trump said he would encourage Republicans to do early voting. At the same time, he also sowed doubt over the approach — baselessly alleging people make “phony ballots” and claiming “a lot of bad things happen to those ballots.”

Those comments are a stark contrast to recent initiatives launched by the Republican National Committee (RNC) and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) to encourage GOP voters to cast their ballots early as they look to make up ground against Democrats in early voting.

“It’s not helpful. I think [Trump] raising questions about mail-in votes is a big part of why we don’t control the Senate and why we have such a slim majority in the House. It’s just ludicrous that the party wouldn’t be united in encouraging voters to vote early,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign.

Republicans are increasingly embracing early voting as a way to juice up GOP voter turnout as the party looks to change Republicans’ mindset over a strategy the former president has demonized.

Last month, the RNC launched a “Bank Your Vote” campaign that aims to encourage voters to vote early. A press release stated the initiative would “encourage, educate, and activate Republican voters on when, where, and how to lock in their votes as early as possible, through in-person early voting, absentee voting, and ballot harvesting where legal.”

Earlier this month, Youngkin and several Republican groups teamed up to launch the Secure Your Vote Virginia initiative aimed at encouraging Republicans and swing voters in the state to cast ballots early in person or vote by mail. The initiative comes ahead of Virginia’s state Legislature elections this November. 

A Virginia GOP strategist confirmed the Secure Your Vote Virginia initiative is a seven-figure effort and said they’ve been “very pleased with how the response has been” so far. 

“What Sean Hannity and [Florida Gov.] Ron DeSantis and Glenn Younkin and [Georgia Gov.] Brian Kemp are saying is the rules are the rules,” the strategist said, adding later, “Get off the sideline, don’t fight with one hand behind your back and follow the rules that are allowed and make sure you’re getting as many votes as you can.”

Republican secretaries of state — the top elections officials in their states — have also encouraged early voting, including in their campaigns. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s (R) office noted last December that the state broke records for midterm early voting turnout and midterm absentee mail ballots cast during the November election.

“Georgia voters have been utilizing early voting for several election cycles now, and successful campaigns like mine and Gov. Brian Kemp have always incorporated early voting into our campaign strategies— as would any candidate who actually wants to win,” Raffensperger said in a statement to The Hill. 

In Kentucky, Secretary of State Michael Adams (R) has encouraged early voting, and his office told The Hill that Republicans are having an edge over Democrats in using it.

“From 2020 through the May primary of this year, we’ve seen slightly more Republicans than Democrats take advantage of early voting — proportionate to our voter registration breakdown,” Michon Lindstrom, a spokesperson for Adams, told The Hill in an email.

Adams in May released unofficial early voting turnout numbers ahead of the gubernatorial primary, showing almost 42,000 Republicans and around 30,700 Democrats used no-excuse early voting.

Even Trump more recently this year was encouraging the use of early voting methods. 

Speaking to a crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in March, he said, “Republicans must compete using every lawful means to win. That means swamping the left with mail-in votes, early votes and Election Day votes. Have to do it. We have to change our thinking.”

But while Trump suggested to Hannity this week he would encourage early voting heading into 2024, he also suggested Republicans couldn’t entirely trust the process.

“I will, but those ballots get lost also, Sean,” Trump said when asked if he’d encourage his supporters to vote early. “You know, they send them in, and all of a sudden, they’re gone.”

Trump’s campaign for its part has said the former president has been straightforward on his view of early voting.

“He’s been very consistent in his messaging all campaign long. Even though it’s an imperfect system, we need to do whatever is allowed legally to ensure every vote is counted,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in an email to The Hill, pointing to his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference in March.

There, Trump said Republicans must be “swamping the left with mail-in votes, early votes and Election Day votes.”

Some Republicans have brushed off the muddled messaging, saying Trump’s comments to Hannity were one isolated interview.

“I don’t think it’s gonna be — that one interview and those comments — are going to be impactful,” said Republican strategist David Carney.

For candidates, “If that’s one of their major talking points, it could,” Carney said. “But we can’t win on one-day voting.”

But other members of the party see it differently, and they’ll need to fine-tune their strategy on voting to win competitive elections.

“When you have somebody like former President Trump talking about something in generalities, it can certainly serve to muddle the message,” said Allegheny County GOP chairman Sam DeMarco.

DeMarco, who’s part of the Pennsylvania GOP’s task force on mail-in voting, said Republicans in the state are getting involved in their own early voting efforts.

He said they “spoke to a number of different states who use mail-in ballots in early voting to try to glean and learn best practices from them. And we’re working to put a number of those in place here in Pennsylvania, and in particularly in Allegheny County.”

Political experts say Trump should have an incentive for changing his tune on early voting — especially if he wants to win the Republican presidential nomination again.

“I think it underscores what we’ve known all along, which is that, you know, Donald Trump … is not very disciplined” as a campaigner, explained Charles Stewart III, a political science professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.

“If he wants to win and if he’s convinced that they’re going — that Republicans are going to do better if they can … bank these votes, I think his messaging will come around, and it will be more focused,” he added.

Brett Samuels contributed.

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Trumps mixed message on early voting muddles Republican 2024 strategy - The Hill

This brand of moderate Republican governor has been edging ever-closer to extinction for some time. Larry Hogan was term-limited out in Maryland last year. Charlie Baker opted for a $3 million-per-year paycheck over a brutal primary against a Donald Trump-endorsed candidate in Massachusetts.

Now Chris Sununu is calling it quits in New Hampshire.

Fiscally conservative but more socially moderate Republican governors have long defied electoral odds in blue and purple states. Thats proved particularly true in the liberal bastion of New England, where three of the regions six governors were Republicans and executives of Baker and Bill Welds ilk ran Massachusetts almost uninterrupted for 30 years.

Until now.

Trumps rise accelerated the Republican Partys hard-right march, complicating the primary calculus for moderates. Democrats capitalized on both Baker and Hogans departures and on anger towards both Trump and the Supreme Court to win back corner offices in Massachusetts and Maryland last year. On Wednesday, race raters reacted to Sununus pending departure by shifting the New Hampshire governors contest to a toss-up. Democrats now see the state as their best chance for a gubernatorial flip in 2024.

And with Sununu exiting, the ranks of Republican governors of states where Democrats won in 2020 the likes of Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo and Vermont Gov. Phil Scott keep dwindling.

This is new territory for the Republican Party, veteran New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Mike Dennehy said.

Moderate Republican governors long found success in blue states, particularly in the Northeast, by appealing across party lines and providing a check on Democratic-led legislatures. In recent years, theyve consistently polled as some of the most popular state executives in the country. And theyve won reelection in their states by wide margins.

But Trump made it uncool and in some cases unelectable to do the one thing Republican governors have to do in bluer states: work across the aisle.

He also splintered the GOP base in even the bluest of states, fueling a race to the right that paved a pathway for more extreme candidates to win primaries.

It got to the point in Massachusetts where Baker the stratospherically popular two-term governor and vocal Trump critic ran a real risk of losing last years GOP gubernatorial primary to a conservative former state representative backed by Trump. And thats despite Republicans knowing Baker could have easily won a third term.

So rather than engaging in a potentially bruising primary, Baker and his lieutenant governor, Karyn Polito, stepped aside. Geoff Diehl won the Republican nomination over a more moderate political newcomer. And he promptly lost the general election to Democrat Maura Healey by nearly 30 points.

If Republicans can find candidates in the model of Sununu and Baker and Scott, they can remain competitive, Ryan Williams, a Republican strategist who worked with Sununus father and brother when they held elective office, said. But if they nominate people who formally served as Trumps campaign co-chair in a state, theyre going to lose.

Sununu faced both a different governing landscape in New Hampshire, where the two legislative chambers are almost evenly split between parties, and a different relationship with the GOP base. He called Trump fucking crazy at a glitzy Washington D.C. dinner last spring and still breezed through his gubernatorial primary that fall. He won reelection to a fourth two-year term in November by 15 points.

Yet Sununu opted out of running for a record fifth term on Wednesday, saying public service is not a career and that the time was right to step aside.

Obviously I think I could get reelected, Sununu said in an interview. But its just good for the system to have turnover, to have fresh faces, to have new ideas come to the forefront.

But Sununus exit threatens to grow the power vacuum that Baker and Hogan created in a region that was once a stronghold for both moderate Republicans and an increasingly bygone way of bipartisan politicking particularly if Scott, the Vermont governor who won a fourth term last year by his largest margin yet, also passes on running for a fifth.

I have Republicans in my Legislature. Im not forced to do anything. I just know its good business to work across the aisle when I can, its just a good way to get stuff done, Sununu said. Its too bad we dont have more folks that kind of work [bipartisanly]. It doesnt mean other folks wont in the future. But we were some pretty good examples of doing it.

Democrats who have been unable to unseat Sununu are now relishing in the Republicans decision to step aside. The left has longed for an open gubernatorial seat in New Hampshire and now sees the state as one of their best if not the best pickup opportunities in 2024.

But the primary between Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington and outgoing Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is already dividing the Democratic establishment in New Hampshire.

And Republicans are hardly writing the state off. Former state Senate President Chuck Morse, who ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate last year, jumped into the governors race just minutes after Sununu said he was out. Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte teased some big news in the coming days. State Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut is also eyeing the race.

Still, even with several quite capable candidates, former New Hampshire GOP Chair Fergus Cullen said hes warning his fellow Republicans not to underestimate the other side especially if Trump becomes the partys presidential pick again.

If Trump is the nominee and he loses New Hampshire by eight points again, its going to be hard for Republicans to retain control of the governors office, Cullen said. I had hoped Sununu would have just run to get us through the election.

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Sununu's exit spells the end of a whole breed of Republican governor - POLITICO

Establishment Republicans are looking to play a more assertive role in ensuring their preferred candidates win in competitive Senate primaries as they work to flip the upper chamber next year.

There’s broad consensus that candidate quality factored in to the party’s failure to take back the Senate in last year’s midterms, with a number of controversial candidates endorsed by former President Trump losing in key states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Georgia.

Now, GOP Senate leaders are doing whatever they can to prevent that from happening again in 2024. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the current head of the party’s campaign arm, has said he plans to be more active in recruiting candidates and selective in where the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) sends its support — a departure from his predecessor, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who argued it wasn’t his job to interfere in primaries.

In West Virginia, for example, Daines is backing Gov. Jim Justice (R) as he runs against fellow Republican Rep. Alex Mooney in the Senate primary. They’re both vying for the seat held by Democrat incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin, who hasn’t said whether he’s running for reelection. 

In Montana, Daines has been supportive of businessman Tim Sheehy, who is challenging incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester, and said he’d prefer to avoid a contentious primary as Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) weighs a bid that could potentially tee up an eventual Tester-Rosendale rematch of their 2018 Senate race. 

“Senate Republicans have seen the majority slip through their fingers in previous cycles. And they’re so close to regaining the majority, they can taste it. Republicans in 2024 have an opportunity to be on offense, and they’re going to be looking for candidates who can prevail in a general election,” said Jeff Grappone, who led communications for the Senate GOP Conference under Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), adding that candidate quality “has been an issue” for the party.

“It’s understandable after the last cycle, that there would be a desire to have a different approach, a winning approach, to go on offense and to not leave any opportunities on the table,” Grappone said. 

Given the narrow Senate margin, and “given how high the stakes are, I think it’s the right decision for the NRSC to get involved in primaries,” said GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak, although he added that the decision is “not without some risks.”

“A 50-50 Senate could be decisive one way or the other. If you just look at Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, those three — the GOP should be favored in all three of those states if we don’t blow it,” Mackowiak said, noting that states like Arizona and Wisconsin could also be pickup opportunities this time around. 

“There’s a pathway to Republicans gaining three or more seats this election cycle, and that would be significant. It’s the most advantageous map, Senate map, in my lifetime for Republicans,” Mackowiak said. 

The election handicapper Cook Political Report rates the Senate races for Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, Democrat Sherrod Brown’s seat in Ohio and Independent Kyrsten Sinema’s seat in Arizona as “toss up” states, while Tester’s seat in Montana and Democrat Bob Casey Jr.’s seat in Pennsylvania are among five posts rated “lean Democrat.”

Daines told CBS News last week that the NRSC plans to stay neutral in the Ohio Senate race, where three Republican candidates are now jostling for their party’s nomination in a competitive primary. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) became the latest Republican to announce his candidacy, joining businessman Bernie Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R).

“When you have three candidates [where] anyone could win the general election, we don’t stay up late at night worrying about that,” the Senate campaign arm’s chair said of Ohio in an interview with CBS News.

“But if we have a situation where a candidate may not be able to appeal across a broader spectrum, that’s where we’ll be more intentional to try to get candidates that can,” Daines said.

But Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide, said establishment Republicans may be setting themselves up for failure by getting involved in primary battles. 

“I think it’s a mistake for the party to get involved in primaries,” Darling said. “The party has a mixed record on picking preferred candidates and it doesn’t always work out for them”

 Darling added that the party’s involvement in primaries causes rifts between conservatives and the more establishment-wing candidates, creating problems for the eventual general election. 

“You end up having these primaries that are pretty, pretty rough-and-tumble, that end up dividing the party and giving ammunition to the Democrats to go after the conservative if the conservative ends up winning,” Darling said. 

Darling also raised concerns that the NRSC risks “trying to defeat somebody who may eventually win,” which could then create “a lot of distrust with leadership before these members potentially get elected.”

Other strategists shrugged off that concern, saying those candidates would have to win a general election first in order for that distrust to become a factor.

After a disappointing midterm cycle in which Republicans barely etched out a majority in the House and lost a chance to lead the Senate, many pointed to controversial Trump-backed candidates as at least partially responsible for the failed “red wave.”

Now, some Republicans are saying Trump should stay out of the primaries.

Daines told CBS News that he’s “getting on the same page” with the former president about endorsements and has endorsed Trump in his 2024 bid to get back to the Oval Office. 

Darling said endorsements from the former president are “huge” for congressional hopefuls.

“That’s a much more important endorsement than the Senatorial Committee or anybody sitting in the U.S. Senate today,” he said. 

CNN reported this week that Trump has told both Mooney in Montana and Rosendale, if he runs in West Virginia, that they’re unlikely to secure his endorsement.

“Certainly, Trump hurt us” in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona last year, Mackowiak said, but it’s “good news” that the former president now seems not to be getting behind “less electable candidates” in places like Montana and West Virginia. 

“It appears as though, at least as of now, he’s not going to be the problem he’s been in the past,” the GOP consultant said of Trump. 

The party has also appeared to breathe a sigh of relief that some controversial candidates from last year’s midterms are foregoing getting into next year’s races for both the House and Senate. 

Pennsylvania’s state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), who questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election during his 2022 gubernatorial bid, decided against a 2024 run for Sen. Bob Casey’s (D-Pa.) seat. Endorsed by Trump, Mastriano lost his race last year by 15 points. 

Others, though, could still jump into Senate races and complicate things for the establishment, like failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R), who is considering an upper chamber bid for Sinema’s seat. 

The Hill has reached out to the NRSC for comment. 

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Republicans to be more selective in choosing Senate candidates in 2024 - The Hill

Ron Brownstein

Brownstein's main concentration is on how Abbott and other southern governors have been usurping the federal government's powers in the area of immigration, based, as usual with such conservative projects, on theories based on the Constitution's saying what it doesn't say. But this kind of thing isn't limited to one issue or one state. Take what's going on in Alabama. Back in June, in a surprise ruling, the Supreme Court ruled that Alabama's new voting maps violated what's left of the Voting Rights Act. In its majority opinion, the Court strongly advised that the legislature draw up a new map with two majority-black congressional districts. The legislature went back, pondered the question, and promptly blew off the Supreme Court entirely, voting through a new map with one majority-black congressional district. From the Washington Post:

What the new map does is drain some black voters out of the pre-existing majority-black district into another pre-existing district that will now be 40 percent black, which is not a majority, even by Alabama math. But the Republicans are hanging their defiance on the fact that the Supreme Court had mandated a second majority-black district "or something quite close to it." (You have to love how the carefully manufactured conservative majority equivocates just enough to let the vote-suppressors get tricky.) The Democrats, of course, are planning another lawsuit.

Sooner or later, this Democratic administration is going to face a situation like the one Eisenhower had in Little Rock in 1957 and like the one Kennedy faced in Mississippi in 1962. The national government cannot stand idly by while a bunch of tinhorns take us all back to the Articles of Confederation, if not to the Confederate States of America. There will be hell to pay, but the price will be worth it.

Charles P Pierce is the author of four books, most recently Idiot America, and has been a working journalist since 1976. He lives near Boston and has three children.

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Greg Abbott and Republican Governors Are Reigniting the ... - Esquire

Republican Paul Melotik will represent Wisconsin's 24th Assembly District after winning a special election Tuesday.

Melotik defeated Democrat Bob Tatterson, with unofficial results showing he captured nearly 54 percent of the 12,023 votes cast.

The district covers parts of Ozaukee and Washington counties, plus a sliver of Waukesha County, to the north and west of Milwaukee. The special election fills the vacancy left when its previous representative, Dan Knodl, was sworn into a state Senate seat he won in an April special election.

In 2022, Tatterson ran against Knodl for the same Assembly seat in the reliably Republican district. In that race, he was defeated by a 22-point margin. In Tuesday's special election, he narrowed the margin to 8 points.

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Prior to the election, Charles Franklin, who directs the Marquette University Law School Poll,told WPR a Republican victory in the districtwas almost assured. But he said the margin of victory could offer perspective on how the area is changing.

"For Republicans, continued strength or even a growth in strength in this district might be a signal that some of the challenges they've faced especially in the Donald Trump era maybe are beginning to settle or reverse there," Franklin said. "So there is a tea leaf here to read on both sides of the equation. Are Republicans recovering a little bit in the suburbs, or are Democrats continuing to make gains in the suburbs?"

In the broadly conservative area, margins between Republican and Democratic candidates have become somewhat slimmer in recent years. Support for a Republican presidential candidate in Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties, known as the WOW counties, has declined since 2012 when GOP nominee Mitt Romney won the region by about 35 percentage points. Former President Donald Trump still won the WOW counties, but his margins were narrower: a cumulative 28 points in 2016 and 23 points in 2020. That decline has also been reflected in statewide races for governor and state Supreme Court.

Melotik is a businessman and a member of the Ozaukee County Board. With his victory, Republicans have a 64 to 35 majority in the state Assembly.

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Republican Paul Melotik wins special election for 24th Assembly ... - wpr.org