To win next week's election for governor, Republican Tom Foley will have to persuade hundreds of thousands of voters outside his own party that he is the best choice to lead blue state Connecticut.
Like other Republicans who run for office in traditionally liberal states, Foley has tried to walk the center line. He has focused his campaign message on topics that are important to all voters but not inherently partisan, such as job creation, the economy, and education. He has avoided ideological rhetoric as he attempts to appeal to the center.
A woman stopped Foley on the street during a campaign tour in Middletown last month and told him she was a registered Democrat, but planning to vote for him. Foley hugged her. "I love you," he said.
Thirty-six percent of registered voters in Connecticut are Democrats, compared to 20 percent who are registered Republicans, according to voter registration statistics released last week by The Secretary of the State's office. More than 40 percent of voters are unaffiliated.
Heading into the Nov. 4 election, Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, who defeated Foley by about 6,400 votes in 2010, has both the advantage of incumbency and the majority party nomination. But a Quinnipiac poll released this week showed that the two candidates are deadlocked at 43 percentage points each.
Foley's strategy has included bypassing the sort of social issues that can fire up the Republican base, but risk alienating party moderates. He received the endorsement of the Family Institute of Connecticut, a conservative social issue advocacy group, but on the campaign trail doesn't mention the hot-button policy issues important to that group. The group has said it endorsed Foley because he promised to veto an assisted suicide bill that would permit physicians to prescribe a lethal dose of medication to certain terminally ill patients.
"Nobody in Connecticut is talking to me about social issues," said Foley, a Greenwich businessman. Although he received the backing of the pro-gun Connecticut Citizens Defense League, Foley has avoided discussing firearms regulation, an issue that might be more divisive in Connecticut than anywhere else in the country in view of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting and the sweeping gun control legislation passed in response.
"Say your position and move on. Don't get stuck talking about it," said Thomas Rath, a former New Hampshire attorney general and longtime GOP strategist about how Republican candidates in liberal states should address polarizing topics. "If you've got a position, your position is what it is. Say it." Rath said it would be unwise to try to "craft a message in a really clever way."
Earlier this year, Foley struggled to give a straight answer on whether he would sign a repeal of the gun bill, saying during a debate that he would not repeal the law, but telling reporters afterwards that he was referring to the fact that a governor cannot single-handedly force a repeal. Foley has said he would sign a repeal measure if it won approval in the General Assembly, but the question is likely academic, as such a bill is unlikely to reach the governor's desk. Even Republican lawmakers who voted against the measure have said that repealing it is not among their legislative priorities.
Republican strategists say Foley's economic-focused message telling voters he has the business experience to manage the state budget, will prevent wasteful spending, and reduce the tax burden on job creators is a smart approach.
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As Republican In A Blue State, Foley Walks The Center Line