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Republican gubernatorial hopeful Rob Astorino, struggling for traction in his uphill fight against Gov. Cuomo, will deliver what some campaign aides see as a make-or-break speech next month outlining his vision for New York, aides said Sunday.

The planned Oct. 1 address at a morning breakfast of the Association for a Better New York, now being drafted with the help of several economic experts, including investment banker and CNBC analyst Larry Kudlow, is being compared by Astorinos strategists to the turning-point policy speech delivered by then-freshman state Sen. George Pataki to the Citizens Budget Commission just weeks before he defeated Gov. Mario Cuomo in 1994.

Its going to be a major address, said state GOP Chairman Ed Cox.

Pataki laid out a vision in that speech that was really important to the people of the state. He said what he was going to do. And I think Rob Astorinos speech will have the same impact, Cox said.

Jessica Proud, Astorinos spokeswoman, said it would be a very sobering speech with a very realistic picture of where the state is now and where it could be with a set of different policies.

Astorino, the Westchester County executive, gave a strong indication of what his speech will contain late last week at an evening meeting of the state Business Council, where he delivered a scathing and apparently effective critique of Cuomos economic policies, current New York economic conditions and the failure of the business community to fight for necessary reforms that left several Cuomo backers clearly uncomfortable, some in attendance said.

While Cuomo, who was endorsed by the council four years ago, addressed the same group the next day, he abruptly left the gathering without the expected endorsement, in part because of Astorinos presentation, sources said.

Some key Republicans arent happy that Astorinos new statewide television ad campaign, which, while effectively focusing on the states economic problems, doesnt say anything about who Astorino is or why he would make things better.

The ad assumes people know his story, but what most people know of him is what Cuomo taught them through [millions of dollars in] negative ads. Something has to change quickly or this is going to be a bloodbath, a top Republican official warned.

Former city Public Advocate Mark Green, a longtime Democratic activist who last week predicted Mayor de Blasio or even Attorney General Eric Schneiderman may challenge Cuomo for governor in four years, has another provocative forecast.

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Astorino set to deliver payoff speech outlining vision for state

SALT LAKE CITY First Congressional District candidates Rep. Rob Bishop and challenger Donna McAleer will square off Tuesday in the first prime-time debate put on by the Utah Debate Commission.

The commission, in cooperation with the state's major television stations and universities, will sponsor debates in the four races for Congress and attorney general contested in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 4 election.

The commission has come under some criticism for not inviting any third-party candidates. Only Democrats and Republicans made the commission's threshold for participation based on a name recognition poll it conducted.

"We're going to have the debates between people who have a shot at being elected so that people can make the decision between those two," former U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett, commission co-chairman, said Monday on KSL NewsRadio's "The Doug Wright Show."

"You won't have somebody who has undoubtedly something he or she thinks is very important to say, but that won't have any impact on the election," Bennett said.

The commission's board set the threshold at 10 percent, but taking into account the poll's 4 percent margin of error, candidates with 6 percent qualified. Only Democrats and Republicans reached that level.

The closest candidates who did not make it were Libertarian Andrew W. McCullough and Independent American Leslie Curtis, both of whom had 5.3 percent in the attorney general's race.

The commission conducted the survey early in the election season, but Scott Howell, commission co-chairman and a former Democratic state senator, said it's up to the candidates to work hard and get their names out there.

"You cannot be a genuine candidate unless you pay the price," Howell said on "The Doug Wright Show." "The debate commission will not be the campaign for third-party candidates."

McAleer, a Democrat, is making her second run at Bishop, a six-term Republican, in the 1st District. He easily beat her in 2012.

Link:
Debates ready to start, third-party candidates not included

When Republican Rick Scott ran for governor in 2010, he carried 52 of Florida's 67 counties, yet he barely beat Democrat Alex Sink.

How could that happen?

If you know your country, it's simple: A lot more people in suburbs, small cities and towns vote Republican and a lot more people in big cities vote Democrat.

Those numbers from 2010 are more revealing if you drill a little deeper.

First, Republicans are more likely to vote in nonpresidential election years like 2014 and 2010.

Republicans make up 35 percent of all voters in Florida, Democrats 39 percent. The other 26 percent are mostly registered with no party affiliation. But of those who actually voted in 2010, Republicans made up 44 percent, Democrats 40 percent and the rest 16 percent.

If a similar turnout happens in November, Scott will enjoy four more years in the Governor's Mansion.

Within Florida, some areas are bright red, such as Pensacola, Panama City, Fort Myers and Daytona Beach. Others are deep blue, like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Orlando. And others are purple, like the state as a whole: St. Petersburg, Tampa and Jacksonville.

The best predictor of what might happen between Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist is the 2010 election. No two elections are alike, but here's what happened four years ago:

Voter turnout was higher in more Republican counties than it was in Democratic counties. Statewide turnout was 48.7 percent, but it was higher than that in 41 of the 52 counties Scott won, compared with eight of the 15 counties Sink won.

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Bousquet column: It's all about turnout in Florida governor's race

BY DAVE McKINNEY Springfield Bureau Chief September 21, 2014 9:00PM

Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn speaks during an interview with The Associated Press Friday, Sept. 19, 2014, in Chicago. Quinn is running against Republican Bruce Rauner in the November general election. (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)

storyidforme: 72282323 tmspicid: 25363980 fileheaderid: 12841955

Updated: September 22, 2014 2:11AM

SPRINGFIELD After trailing Republican Bruce Rauner by double digits, Gov. Pat Quinn has brought the governors race to a statistical dead heat, new polling data released Sunday showed.

Among likely voters, the Winnetka Republican led Quinn by a 44 to 41 percent spread with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, according to automated polling done Thursday by We Ask America.

Libertarian Chad Grimm, whose campaign was permitted last week by a Sangamon County judge to remain on the Nov. 4 ballot, stood at 6 percent in the new poll.

We Ask Americas most recent polling on the race published Sept. 3 by Reboot Illinois had Rauner up on the incumbent Chicago Democrat by a 46 to 38 percent margin. An Aug. 6 poll done by the group for the Chicago Sun-Times had Rauner with a 13-point lead.

There is a lot of time left, but Mr. Rauner continues to lose ground, We Ask Americas chief operating officer Gregg Durham told Early & Often, the Chicago Sun-Times online political portal.

Whatever messaging Gov. Quinn has done is causing movement. But some of this movement is simply Democrats coming back home who early on werent so sure about staying with Gov. Quinn, Durham said.

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Statistical dead heatin governors race

Republican Resigns After Saying Women on Welfare Should Be Sterilized
Russell Pearce, former State Senator, resigns after saying that women on welfare should be sterilized http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2014/09/15/3567392/ru...

By: David Pakman Show

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Republican Resigns After Saying Women on Welfare Should Be Sterilized - Video