New Hampshire Senate: Are Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen really tied? (+video)
Washington Is Republican Scott Brown tied with Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire? Thats what a new poll from CNN/ORC International indicates. Its got the Granite State Senate race all locked up, 48 percent to 48 percent, with the election only seven weeks away.
Understandably, thats made the Republican Party leadership pretty excited. Mr. Brown began the race as an underdog, given that he was a senator from Massachusetts and until recently remained a Massachusetts resident. Plus, hes trying to oust an incumbent. So the degree of difficulty inherent in his attempt at a political comeback is high.
The Republican National Committee issued a press release highlighting this polls results, including its finding that, in New Hampshire, President Obamas favorability ratings are a bit worse than his national average, with 38 percent of New Hampshire likely voters approving of Obamas job performance and 60 percent disapproving.
Obama Is A Drag On Shaheen In New Hampshire, reads the RNC releases title.
But heres the kicker: There are three other new polls on the New Hampshire Senate race, and their results are all over the scatter plot. None of them match CNN/ORCs findings.
Two are partisan surveys. A poll for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee conducted by Kiley & Company has Senator Shaheen ahead of Brown by 51 to 43 percent. A poll for the pro-Brown political action committee Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire has Brown ahead, 46 to 44.
Then theres Rasmussen, an independent firm that uses automated polling methods. Theyve got Shaheen in front by 48 to 42 percent.
Whats all this mean? It probably indicates that Shaheen is still in the lead. At least, thats what the big polling averagers say. The RealClearPolitics average of major surveys has Shaheen up by 3.5 percentage points, 47.3 to 43.8. The Huffington Post Pollster average has Shaheen ahead 48.1 to 42.4.
Now, its possible that CNN picked up on a movement toward Brown that Rasmussen missed for some reason. Polling for Senate races in individual states is not going to be nearly as definitive as big national surveys.
But the CNN poll also showed that Browns favorables are under water, with 46 percent of respondents rating him favorably, and 48 percent unfavorably. Shaheens ratings are more positive: 54 percent favorable, and 42 percent unfavorable.
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New Hampshire Senate: Are Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen really tied? (+video)