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Former President Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign is underway, but he's not the only person battling for the Republican nomination: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, entrepreneur and "anti-woke" activist Vivek Ramaswamy and others make up a crowded GOP field currently led by the former president.

Meanwhile, however, Trump is up against several historic indictments, one of which pertains to his alleged attempts to interfere with the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, which resulted in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Another involves his alleged mishandling of classified documents at his private Florida resort. He was also indicted in Georgia on charges related to his actions during the 2020 election and is facing additional charges in New York for allegedly falsifying business records. With his competition and legal woes in mind, how likely is Trump to win the 2024 nomination?

DeSantis at one time appeared to be Trump's main competition. The governor was reelected during the 2022 midterms in a landslide, but has been besieged by a campaign that The Washington Post described in August as "almost uniformly negative."

As a result of DeSantis' lackluster performance, Trump still dominates the polls and is continuing to rise. A Nov. 16 Iowa State University poll with a 5.9% margin of error found DeSantis lagging far behind Trump in the crucial Iowa caucus, with only 18% of GOP respondents in the state likely to vote for him. The Florida governor also has competition on his tail, as Nikki Haley is catching up to him with 12%. Both of them are nowhere close to Trump, though, who received 54% in the poll, placing him in the drivers seat in Iowa. Nationally, FiveThirtyEights poll aggregate showed DeSantis trailing the former president by nearly 50 points as of Nov. 22.

There's nothing in the Constitution that prohibits an indicted person, or even a convicted felon, from running for president, and among Republicans, Trump gained in the polls following his first indictment in April. While this wasn't the case during his second indictment, he did get a boost after his third in August; according to a RealClearPolitics national poll aggregation cited by Intelligencer, Trump's support was at 53.9% on Aug. 1, the day he was indicted for the third time. As of Aug. 13, it had risen to 54.2%. This is despite the fact that a majority of Americans 65% classified Trump's Jan. 6-related indictment as "serious" in an ABC News/Ipsos poll. In all, FiveThirtyEights national aggregate has Trump holding a 60.2% lead among Republicans as of Nov. 22, far outpacing any other GOP candidate and representing a three-point jump since the beginning of November.

Trump's continued support could be partially because, given the multiple indictments now under his belt, "the novelty of a former leader of the United States being called a felon has somehow worn off," The New York Times reported. It has become clear from his steady polling numbers that "most Americans made up their minds about [Trump] long before prosecutors ... weighed in." So it appears that his indictments may not play a major factor in his getting the nomination unless the landscape changes drastically.

Haley, a former governor of South Carolina who previously said she wouldn't run if Trump did, was one of the first to enter the race and was described by the New Statesman as an extremist in moderate clothing. And while she started off slow, polls show her creeping up; while the aforementioned Iowa State poll shows her trailing DeSantis in the states primary, a Des Moines Register poll in October had her tied with the Florida governor.

Ramaswamy entered the race as a dark-horse candidate, and The Associated Press noted that his candidacy is still a longshot bid. However, his poll numbers have been rising, which made him the primary target at the GOPs first (and Trump-less) presidential debate. Ramaswamy, who wrote a book decrying woke-ism and pushed to eliminate affirmative action and various government agencies, is currently sitting at 6% in the Iowa State poll, coming in fourth place behind Trump, DeSantis and Haley.

Chris Christie has been the most vocal critic against Trump from the GOPs pack of candidates. Since the second indictment, Christie, a former prosecutor, has made many public remarks about Trump's handling of classified documents. What Christie is saying is "very, very important," Frank Bruni wrote in the Times. He's telling the unvarnished truth about Trump, and he's the only candidate doing that ... he's artfully, aggressively and comprehensively making the case against Trump. Christies poll numbers remain low, however; as of Nov. 22, FiveThirtyEights aggregate placed him at 2.8% nationally, a drop from the beginning of October. He is also polling at just 3% in the Iowa State poll, which could put his campaign in further jeopardy.

Trump has also lost a number of foes in the race, including his old second-in-command, former Vice President Mike Pence. The former vice president suspended his presidential campaign on Oct. 28, saying it was not my time. However, Trump likely never had much to worry about in that regard, as Pences campaign was besieged by financial struggles and consistently low national polling.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott also ended his bid for the presidency, announcing in an interview on Nov. 12 that the country was telling him, not now. Scott had entered the race trying to paint himself as a moderate Republican who is a supporter of "traditional conservative values." Like Pence, though, Scotts campaign saw low polling numbers and enthusiasm throughout its short run.

Neither Pence nor Scott endorsed anyone for president after suspending their campaigns.

In the 2022 midterms, Trump saw almost all of his endorsed candidates lose by large margins. "It's basically the third election in a row that Donald Trump has cost us the race, and it's like, three strikes, you're out," former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) told CNN.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) would also like to see a fresh face as the GOP's 2024 nominee and said in May she wants someone other than Trump or DeSantis at the top of the Republican ticket. Otherwise, "if that's the contest, Republicans are doomed," she declared.

And its not just politicians who dont want Trump to be the nominee. An April AP/NORC poll of 1,230 adults found that 44% of Republicans dont want the former president to run for the White House again, in addition to 63% of independents who felt the same. However, that same poll found that 86% of Republicans also felt that the indictments against Trump were politically motivated.

Quite a few Republicans. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the chair of the House Republican Conference, is one of the highest-ranking GOP members to publicly support Trump's 2024 bid. Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas, a physician who was previously Trump's medical adviser, tweeted, "President Trump is the greatest President I've ever seen. I'm on his side 100%!"

Other Republicans who have endorsed the former president include Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, 11 GOP senators, and 76 GOP House members, per Insider.The newly-elected speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is also a staunch supporter of Trump, and notably led efforts in 2020 to try and overturn then-President-elect Joe Bidens victory. Given that Johnson is now the de facto leader of the House of Representatives, his support of Trump could loom large as the election draws closer.

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Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican nomination? - Yahoo News

With assists from POLITICOs Congress team

Agrowing number of Republicans sound like theyre ready to cough up the nine votes needed to allow the stalled military promotions to move forward without a permanent rules change. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

TUBERVILLE ON CUSP OF DEFEAT ON HIS PENTAGON HOLDS

With precious little time left in the year, Democrats are gearing up to finally break through Sen. Tommy Tubervilles (R-Ala.) months-long blockade of military promotions.

Their goal to act before the holidays is purposeful, since the group of Pentagon picks hes been holding up will have to be reconsidered in committee next year unless the Senate acts. And a growing number of Republicans sound like theyre ready to cough up the nine votes needed to allow the stalled military promotions to move forward without a permanent rules change.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who sits on the Armed Services Committee, told us that he predicts enough Republicans would support the rules change in December to get it to the needed 60 votes.

I think when we actually get the opportunity to vote on this, I think were gonna have more people vote on it than we expect, Kelly said.

Your refresher: Its been nearly a year since the Alabama conservative began his hold on military promotions. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has not yet said exactly when he plans to call a vote on essentially bundling most military nominees to get them through the Senate a maneuver crafted to circumvent Tuberville that would expire at the end of the current two-year session of Congress.

Every day that goes by, this problem gets worse, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told reporters Tuesday. It would be nice if more than 400 of our military leaders could get their promotions and assignments to their next duty stations before Christmas. Were aiming for that. But this all rests with rounding up enough Republican votes to shut Tuberville down.

So which Republicans might flip? Tuberville spoke with his GOP colleagues during weekly Senate lunches Tuesday. As they left the room, several of them told reporters that its time to find a solution to Tubervilles one-man protest of a Biden administration policy that allows service members to travel for abortion access.

I can just simply say that in private conversations, many of my colleagues are very, very frustrated, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said Tuesday.

When asked when Republicans would like to see a change, she responded: There is no hard and fast deadline.

Some Republicans wont say yet where they stand on the vote.

Ive been opposed to Sen. Tubervilles hold since the beginning and I am taking a look at the proposed change, the standing order, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) told reporters Tuesday.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) also said he is open to voting on the resolution.

Who else to watch: Several other Senate Republicans have expressed frustration over Tubervilles hold and are seen by Democrats as potential yes votes. In addition to Ernst, Collins and Tillis, that group includes Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Todd Young (R-Ind.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).

Daniella Diaz and Joe Gould

A message from American Chemistry Council Chemistry Creates America Competes:

Powering the nations supply chain, the U.S. business of chemistry drives innovation in semiconductors, energy, healthcare, and more. But urgent action is needed! Already the most heavily regulated sector, Americas chemical industry faces growing regulatory overload. The Biden Administration and Congress must correct course and do a better job understanding the negative impact of additional, unduly restrictive regulations on a fragile supply chain and economy before its too late. Learn more Chemistry Creates, America Competes

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Nov. 28, where the Capitol is the most festive its been in a decade with no looming shutdown threat for now!

SANTOS EXPULSION WATCH: WHERES GUEST?

Reps. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) moved forward earlier Tuesday with their own proposal to expel embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) from Congress. Which leaves the House watching for Ethics Committee Chair Michael Guest (R-Miss.) to beat them with his own privileged resolution on the matter.

Welcome back to, as Olivia dubbed it in Mondays Huddle, the resolutionary war. House Republicans have already indicated that they wont support a measure to expel Santos introduced by Democrats but if Guest moves forward with his resolution, our reporting suggests that there would be enough votes to boot the indicted New Yorker.

House GOP leaders dont plan to whip their members on the Santos expulsion vote, according to two people who spoke to Olivia about Tuesdays Republican leadership meeting on condition of anonymity.

Remember: If all Democrats vote to boot Santos, then about 80 House Republicans would need to come on board to secure the two-thirds threshold needed for expulsion. Nearly 70 GOP members said ahead of Congress return that they plan to or strongly lean towards voting to oust him, according to POLITICOs whip count.

Daniella Diaz and Olivia Beavers

D.C.S HOTTEST LEADERSHIP ELECTION IS DPCC

When House Democrats come together for their weekly meeting on Wednesday, theres a leadership election on the schedule: a new co-chair of the DPCC, the caucus messaging arm.

Reps. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.) and Jason Crow (D-Colo.) are vying for the slot vacated by Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who stepped down from the position earlier this year weeks before launching his longshot bid for president.

In their bids to lock up colleagues votes, Trahan passed around Sweet Lydias Smores a tasty treat from her home base of Lowell, Mass. while Crow sent copies of Democracy Awakening by Heather Cox Richardson. (Yep, the same book that President Joe Biden was recently spotted picking up while on vacation.)

Crow also passed a card around Tuesday with his pitch touting his working class and national security background as well as his credentials as a former frontliner and Donald Trump impeachment manager.

Speaking with my colleagues over the past two months has been incredibly rewarding, Trahan said in a statement to Huddle. Win or lose, Im more confident than ever that House Democrats are prepared to defeat extremism and retake the majority next November.

Nicholas Wu

The gingerbread Capitol is back! (And it smells really good.)

Congressional interns are organizing in support of a ceasefire.

Is Christmas ruined?

QUICK LINKS

House GOP chaos might just give Senate GOP a fundraising edge, from Ursula Perano, Ally Mutnick, and Sally Goldenberg

Millions of U.S. apples were almost left to rot. Now, theyll go to hungry families, from Alan Jinich at NPR

Clay Higgins compares move to expel George Santos from Congress to crucifixion, from Mark Ballard at The Times-Picayune

How Patrick McHenrys convictions held the House when there was nothing to guide us, from Reese Gorman at The Washington Examiner

TRANSITIONS

Christopher Hadad has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.). He most recently was his economic policy adviser.

Dylan Sodaro is now chief of staff and Matt Rauschenbach is now press secretary for Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.). Sodaro most recently was deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) and Rauschenbach most recently was comms director for Amos congressional campaign.

Carolina Ferrerosa Young is now chief economic adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris. She most recently was economic policy adviser for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

Tanushri Shankar is now chief of staff for Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America. She most recently was deputy chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and is an Everytown for Gun Safety alum.

A message from American Chemistry Council Chemistry Creates America Competes:

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House is in session.

The Senate is in session.

WEDNESDAY AROUND THE HILL

11:30 a.m. Rep. Terri Sewell, Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Steven Horsford and CBC members will hold a press conference to push for Rosa Parks Federal Holiday. (House Triangle)

1 p.m. Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman and Ranking Member Ral Grijalva will hold a press conference to unveil the EXPLORE Act. (House Triangle)

2 p.m. The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia members will hold roundtable with family members of individuals being held hostage by Hamas. (2200 RHOB)

2 p.m. Sens. Rick Scott, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson, Mike Braun and Roger Marshall, as well as Reps. Scott Perry, Chip Roy, Bob Good and Andy Biggs will host a press conference on border security in the supplemental and appropriations bills. (Senate Radio-TV Gallery)

3:30 p.m. Select Committee on the Communist Party of China Chair Mike Gallagher will hold a White Paper Movement anniversary commemoration. (House Triangle)

A message from American Chemistry Council Chemistry Creates America Competes:

Our nations supply chain runs on the U.S. business of chemistry. When chemistry creates, America competes.

Semiconductors, automotive, healthcare, infrastructure, and energy all rely on chemistry. From EVs to smartphones, Americas chemical manufacturers power innovations we cant live without.

Unfortunately, regulatory overload and lack of coordination between the White House and its agencies is handicapping American chemistrys ability to create products that support national priorities, jeopardizing the economy and Americas ability to compete with countries like China. This tidal wave of unduly restrictive regulations could disrupt the supply chain for crucial technologies and everyday products.

President Biden and his administration need to understand how vital chemistry is to the supply chain when it comes to making the things America and the world cant live without. The Biden Administration and Congress must support policies that empower chemistry, promote American innovation, and strengthen U.S. competitiveness. Learn more Chemistry Creates, America Competes.

MONDAYS ANSWER: Carlton Huffman correctly answered that the text in yesterdays Huddle Trivia is attributable to Bobby Kennedys On the Mindless Menace of Violence speech following the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr.

TODAYS QUESTION from Carlton: In the aftermath of Dr. Kings assassination Robert Kennedy spoke eloquently about the path forward for civil rights and kept the peace in Indianapolis the night of April 4, 1968. What civil rights icon, pupil of Dr. Kings in non-violent protest, and future Presidential Medal of Freedom winner worked on RFKs 82 day quest for the White House?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [emailprotected].

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening.

Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.

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The Republicans to watch on Tuberville's blockade - POLITICO

MADISON (WKOW) -- On Tuesday, Speaker Robin Vos held a press conference announcing that Wisconsin's Republican-led Assembly was moving forward with a vote on a bill mimicking Iowa's nonpartisan redistricting model.

The announcement came sometime after Wisconsin Republicans floated threats to impeach Justice Janet Protasiewicz if she chose not to recuse herself from a lawsuit challenging the state's electoral maps, claiming Protasiewicz had a vested interest in the case after calling the maps "rigged."

Vos said the plan would serve as an alternative to impeachment and that Democrats should support the bill as it meets their demands for a more fair redistricting process.

Democrats immediately spoke against the bill, Governor Tony Evers among them, arguing that the state's Republican legislature could not be trusted to oversee the process and its decision to introduce the bill now raises flags.

The bill lacks a provision of the Iowa model that would allow the Supreme Court to draw the maps if the legislature can't agreea move motivated by the court's now-liberal majority.

"Of course, the red herring that they are throwing out is that this takes the Supreme Court out of the mix. That's actually not true, because we know under any circumstance, unfortunately, Wisconsin has been fairly commonplace that if the legislature and the governor can't agree to a map, it goes to the court", said Vos.

Vos clarified he never said he wanted to impeach Protasiewicz, stating the new bill was an opportunity to avoid wasting taxpayer dollars by bringing the lawsuit to trial.

However, on Wednesday, Vos contradicted himself, confirming he had developed a counsel of former Supreme Court justices to advise him on the possibility of impeaching Protasiewicz.

27 News spoke with Republican Representative Todd Novak about that decision, who said the Democrats' response contradicted their demands but said there would be time to get some members on board.

"Why bring the Supreme Court in. I think everybody's getting confused as the Iowa Constitution says the Supreme Court, our Constitution says the legislature does not involve the Supreme Court, and that was a recommendation from Legislative Reference Bureau to make it match our Constitution," said Novak.

Once the Assembly votes on the bill, it will go to the Senate for a hearing.

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Wisconsin Assembly to vote on Republican Iowa-style redistricting bill - WKOW

Your blatant efforts achieved your goal as the U.S. Attorney in Delaware today filed gun charges against our client charges that are unprecedented when not part of some other criminal conduct and have been found unconstitutional by a federal court of appeals and who reversed his earlier decision that such charges were not warranted, Lowell wrote. Your improper interference now affecting a federal prosecutor is a much greater threat to society than the 11 days that Mr. Biden possessed an unloaded gun.

The letter marks a major escalation in the fight between the presidents son and the Hill Republicans who have made him a focus of their recently announced impeachment inquiry targeting the president.

The letter also accuses the committees witnesses of violating federal laws protecting grand jury and tax information, and accuses Republicans of misusing their investigation to dump wholesale protected tax information about Mr. Biden into public view.

Tristan Leavitt, an attorney with the nonprofit group Empower Oversight, who represents one of the IRS whistleblowers, defended his client in a statement to POLITICO.

Here we go again, he said in a statement. Hunter Bidens attorneys have already made this argument to Judge Maryellen Noreika, who reviewed the whistleblower materials and rejected defense counsels baseless allegations, including their claims about grand jury secrecy violations. Taxpayer privacy laws are written by Congress, and it gave itself authority in those laws to hear disclosures about taxpayer information. Whether Congress decides to make that information public pursuant to its statutory process is up to them.

Spokespersons for the Republican chairs did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Nor did a spokesperson for Bidens legal team.

The tranche of material sent to the three committee chairs included a letter that Lowell sent on Aug. 14 of this year to prosecutors working on the Hunter Biden investigation, including the U.S. Attorney supervising the probe. That letter accused two IRS whistleblowers who worked on the investigation of illegally sharing information about the probe with Congress and the public, including in media interviews. That letter included exhibits containing multiple other communications that Hunter Bidens legal team sent to Justice Department officials over the course of the last year.

Lowell also said that the actions of the two IRS agents pressured the Justice Department to change its position in plea deal negotiations. Before one of the whistleblowers discussed the case on a national TV interview, the Justice Department was weighing a consensual non-prosecution resolution to all conduct under investigation, where the resolution proposed by both sides did not include any guilty plea, Lowell wrote. But one day after the interview aired, he added, prosecutors said they would require Biden to plead guilty to misdemeanor tax charges.

Link:
Hunter Biden's lawyer accuses House Republicans of ... - POLITICO

Today, the Florida Department of Law Enforcementannouncedthe arrest of Miami City Commissioner Alex Daz de la Portilla, a former Republican Majority Leader in the Florida Senate, on charges including money laundering, bribery, and criminal conspiracy. In response, the Florida Democratic Party has issued the following statement:

The corruption that Alex Daz de la Portilla is accused of is truly staggering, and shatters the trust voters have in elected officials, said FDP Chair Nikki Fried. There is no place for that kind of behavior in our democracy. We challenge our Republican counterparts to join us in a forceful condemnation of government corruption, regardless of political party.

Our political leaders have a responsibility to serve the public with integrity something that Commissioner Daz de la Portilla has failed to do. In light of the severity of these charges, the Florida Democratic Party calls for Commissioner Daz de la Portillas immediate resignation.

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Florida Democrats Respond to the Arrest of Republican Miami City ... - Florida Democratic Party