The Republican primary season kicks into high gear next month with a series of high-profile Senate contests that will help determine whether the GOP can take control of the upper chamber from Democrats in the midterm elections.
The May matchups some of which could evolve into runoff elections will show the strength of the GOP as it tries to hang on to seats in Nebraska, Georgia and Kentucky and to seize Democrat-controlled seats in North Carolina, West Virginia and Oregon.
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The GOP could potentially win the Senate in November, but the party could hurt its chances if primary voters make poor decisions in some upcoming primaries, said Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginias Center for Politics. Several states with Senate contests in May feature some classic insider-outsider matchups, and national Republicans are hoping the insider/establishment candidates get the nominations.
Republicans need to win six, net, to take the gavel away from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Nevada Democrat.
In its latest breakdown, the Center for Politics predicts Republicans will gain four to eight Senate seats.
Democrats, meanwhile, see the Senate races in Kentucky and Georgia as their best opportunities to pick up seats. They hope Republicans field candidates cut from the same cloth as some of their 2012 and 2010 nominees, including Sharron Angle in Nevada, Christine ODonnell in Delaware and Todd Akin in Missouri, who lost seats that some political observers felt Republicans would have won had they put forward better candidates.
But, with the Senate majority within reach, the Republican establishment has taken a stronger stand against conservatives and tea-party-fueled insurgents in primary races.
Indeed, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky told The New York Times last month that Republican incumbents would crush their tea party rivals in the primary season.
In 2010, they did not take the tea party seriously, said Jennifer Duffy, of the Cook Political Report. In 2012, they tried to work with them. They tried to nominate or get behind candidates that they could both agree on. And in 2014, they are just fighting back. They want the strongest general election candidate in place because they do have a shot at the majority.
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Republican hopes for Senate could hinge on winners of primaries