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September 1, 2022

In this issue: Boston Globe backs Doughty in GOP gubernatorial primary and a look at turnout in Ohios split primaries

The Boston Globe editorial board wrote that reasonable conservatives need to mobilize for Chris Doughty in the GOP gubernatorial primary and reset the Massachusetts state Republican Party by pulling it from the grip of Donald Trump.

Doughty faces former state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R), who Trump endorsed before Republican Gov. Charlie Baker announced he wouldnt seek re-election. Trump and Baker have criticized one another. Baker hasnt endorsed in the primary.

Before the Globe published its endorsement, Diehl said he refused to meet for an endorsement interview and called the papers editorial page essentially just a bulletin board for left-wing progressive talking points and utopian daydreams.

Doughty said at a July debate, Geoff cannot win running as an Alabama Republican in the state of Massachusetts. Doughty has emphasized his business background and says he is equipped to address the high cost of living in the state.

Diehl highlighted that he won 71% of the state party convention endorsement vote and criticized Doughty for voting for Hillary Clinton (D) for president in 2016. Diehl says his record includes keeping gas taxes low and has emphasized his opposition to mask mandates.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has campaigned for Doughty, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) has campaigned for Diehl.

As of 2021, 10% of the states registered voters were Republican, compared to 57% unenrolled and 32% Democratic (unenrolled voters can vote in party primaries in Massachusetts).

The primary is Sept. 6.

On Aug. 16, Alaska held top-four primaries and a special U.S. House election, the latter of which used ranked-choice voting. Certification is expected by tomorrow, and most battleground races have been called.

U.S House special general: Mary Peltola (D) won the election. On the final round of unofficial ranked-choice voting tabulation, Peltola had 51.5% of the vote to Sarah Palins (R) 48.5%. This election fills the term ending Jan. 3, 2023.

Before tabulation began, Peltola had 40% of first-choice votes, followed by Palin with 31% and Nick Begich III (R) with 28%. Write-in candidates received a combined 1.6% of the vote.

Write-in candidates were eliminated first as a batch. Then Begich was eliminated. The votes of those who chose eliminated candidates as first choices were redistributed to the voters second-choice candidates if they chose such. Watch a livestream of the tabulation from the Alaska Division of Elections here.

Peltola will be Alaskas first Democratic U.S. representative since Nick Begich Sr.Nick Begich IIIs grandfather. Begich Sr.s plane went missing while he was in office in 1972. Don Young (R) won a special election to succeed Begich. Young served until his death in March of this year.

Peltola, Palin, and Begich will meet again in the regularly scheduled general election for U.S. House in November. General elections for all offices below will be held Nov. 8 and will use ranked-choice voting as well.

U.S. House regular primary: As of Wednesday, The New York Times had called three of the four general election spots for Peltola, Palin, and Begich III. Peltola led with 37% of the vote, followed by Palin with 30%, Begich with 26%, and Tara Sweeney (R) with 4%.

Sweeney said shell withdraw from the race, meaning the fourth spot would go to the fifth-place finisher. As of Wednesday, that was Libertarian Chris Bye, who had 0.6% of the vote. Sept. 2 is the target election certification date, and Sept. 6 is the ballot certification date.

Alaska governor: Incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R), Bill Walker (Independent), Les Gara (D), and Charlie Pierce (R) advanced to the general election. Dunleavy had 41% of the vote, followed by Walker and Gara with 23% each and Pierce with 7%.

Dunleavy was elected governor in 2018. He succeeded Walker, who initially ran for re-election that year and withdrew weeks ahead of the general election. Gara served in the state House of Representatives from 2003 to 2019. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

U.S. Senate: Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), Patricia Chesbro (D), and Buzz Kelley (R) advanced to the general election. Murkowski had 45% of the vote, followed by Tshibaka with 39%, Chesbro with 7%, and Kelley with 2%.

Murkowski first took office in 2002. Tshibaka is a former commissioner at the Alaska Department of Administration. Chesbro is a retired teacher. Kelley is a retired mechanic.

Murkowski is the only Republican senator seeking re-election this year who voted guilty during former President Donald Trumps 2021 impeachment trial. Murkowskis endorsers include U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). Trump and the Alaska Republican Party endorsed Tshibaka.

Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R) said that he plans to run for governor of Louisiana in 2023. The Associated Press also listed U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, U.S. Rep. Garret Graves, state Treasurer John Schroder, and Attorney General Jeff Landry as possible Republican contenders.

AP wrote, Louisiana is the rare conservative state to have a Democratic governor. The moderate [Gov. John Bel] Edwards won hard-fought races in 2015 and 2019, but he is unable to seek a third consecutive term due to term limits. That means 2023 is a huge opportunity for Republicans to take control of the state that voted for Donald Trump by wide margins in the past two presidential contests.

According to the Louisiana Secretary of State office, 40% of registered voters are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 27% have a different affiliation. FiveThirtyEight gives the state a partisan leana measure of how the state votes compared to the country as a wholeof R+20.5.

Louisiana uses a majority-vote system in which all candidates, regardless of party, run in a preliminary election. If a candidate wins a majority of the vote, they win the election outright. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance to a second election.

Nungesser defeated Willie Jones (D) outright in 2019s preliminary election for lieutenant governor.

Edwards and Eddie Rispone (R) advanced from the preliminary gubernatorial election that year with 47% and 27%, respectively. Edwards won the final election 51.3%-48.7%.

Of the 17 states that elect governors and lieutenant governors separately, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Vermont have governors and lieutenant governors of different parties.

Due to redistricting-related court challenges, Ohio held two primaries this year. The first, its regularly scheduled primary, took place on May 3 for all except state legislative offices. State legislative primaries occurred on Aug. 2. Turnout in the May 2022 primary was comparable to 2018 and 2020 primary turnout, while state legislative primary turnout specifically was lower this year than in 2018 and 2020.

The chart below compares unofficial voter turnout numbers in the Aug. 2 primary with official turnout numbers in the May primary, along with the official turnout numbers in the states previous primary elections through 2012.

Ohios Aug. 2 primary had the lowest voter turnout in a statewide primary election in at least a decade, with 661,101 votes cast. A look at votes cast in General Assembly elections in previous years shows that fewer people voted in these primaries in 2022. Votes cast in state Senate elections were 38% of the 2020 figure and 46% of the 2018 figure. In state House elections, 2022 primary votes were 41% of the 2020 figure and 45% of the 2018 figure. The chart below shows the total votes cast in state House and state Senate elections in 2022, 2020, and 2018.

Note: Ohio holds elections for all state House districts and half its state Senate districts in even-numbered years.

The Ohio Redistricting Commissions state legislative maps underwent a lengthy legal challenge process involving several map submissions to the Ohio Supreme Court. A federal court order went into effect on May 28, selecting one of the submitted maps for use in the 2022 elections. The legal challenge to the legislative maps is ongoing before the state supreme court.

Ohio is one of two states that split its primaries this year due to redistricting legal challenges. Statewide turnout data is not yet available in New York, which held primaries on June 28 and Aug. 23.

Weve crunched some numbers to see how competitive Massachusetts Sept. 6 primaries are compared to recent cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

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Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 37 Ballotpedia News - Ballotpedia News

An archived version of Kirkmeyers campaign site from July 5 lists defending the sanctity of life, as a priority.

THORNTON, Colo. Republican State Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer is adamantly anti-abortion, but you wouldnt be to tell if you looked at her congressional campaign website these days.

Politico first reported this week that many national Republicans have scrubbed information about their anti-abortion positions from their campaign sites, following public opposition to the Supreme Courts ruling eliminating a constitutional right to abortion.

An archived version of Kirkmeyers campaign site from July 5 lists defending the sanctity of life, as a priority.

Im pro-life and I always have been, Kirkmeyer told 9News Wednesday, saying her only exception is to protect the life of the mother.

If you go back and look at everyones websites, not just mine, but you look at my opponents and other folks who are campaigning, theres a campaign that happens in the primary," she said. "And then things shift and everybody goes back and revises their webpages and they focus in on the things that they are going to focus in on.

On Wednesday, an abortion stance was also missing from Republican gubernatorial candidate Heidi Ganahls website. A former webpage listed Ganahls position as pro-life with exceptions for victims of rape, incest and to preserve the life of the mother. But as of Wednesday morning, that position wasnt listed on her page.

A campaign spokeswoman said she was in the process of updating Ganahls website anyway and updated it to include the pro-life stance Wednesday afternoon.

Kristi Burton Brown, chairwoman of the Colorado Republican Party, told 9News all Republican candidates are firmly pro-life.

Our Republican candidates are very clear were the pro-life party, she said. And Hispanic voters share that value with us. They are family values voters, and we stand for the whole family.

A recent poll from Unidos Mi Familia Vota found 74% of Colorado Latinx voters believe abortion should remain legal, despite their personal beliefs about abortion.

In Kirkmeyers race in Colorados new eighth congressional district, 38% of eligible voters are Latinx, the most in any congressional district in Colorado.

Ive probably hit at least 10,000 doors myself in talking to folks, and I can probably count on one hand the number of people whove asked me about abortion, Kirkmeyer said. Its usually the media who asks me the most.

Everyone makes changes [to their website]. My opponent made changes to her website I didnt notice anyone making comments about that, she said.

A search of the Wayback Machine internet archive of Kirkmeyers opponent Yadira Caraveos website congressional website didnt show any significant changes in policy positions.

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Republican candidate in CD-8 scrubbed abortion stance from her website - 9News.com KUSA

SMITHFIELD Five Republican candidates in the Sept. 13 primary are running for a chance at three seats in Smithfield.

The five-member School Committee has four-year staggered terms, with two members not up for election again until 2024. Members Anthony Torregrossa and Benjamin Caisse, both Democrats, are not up for election.

Chairperson Virginia Harnois, a Democrat, is not seeking re-election this year after 40 years on the School Committee, and School Committee Secretary Rose Marie Cipriano, a Republican, is also not seeking re-election after eight years serving the district.

The three top vote-earners from the Republican primary will face off against three endorsed Democrat candidates in the Nov. 8 election. Democrats include Aaron Bishop, Elizabeth Worthley and Kristina Fox. An independent, Edward Quattrini, is also running for School Committee.

Three of the five Republicans running for School Committee are endorsed, including incumbent Richard Iannitelli, Amanda Fafard and Jessica Sala. Unendorsed candidates are John Fabiano and Gary Alix.

Alix did not respond to calls for an interview.

Iannitelli, 65, previously served on the School Committee from 1994 to 2014, and returned to serve on the committee in 2018 wanting to contribute to the elementary school renovation project. He said he feels he still has something to contribute to the district, and hopes to serve another term.

With the bond project completed on time and within budget, Iannitelli said he is proud of the new learning capabilities at the fingertips of teachers and students.

50, 60 years takes a toll on structures. We cleaned up a lot of stuff while looking to the future, he said. Theres better lighting, better technology, new libraries, maker spaces and other rooms where teachers can bring kids to try out ideas.

All while in a pandemic, he added.

Iannitelli highlighted updated art rooms at the middle and high school, and said work will continue in those buildings, including the high school auditorium, with the same results.

It is another area where my experience will come in handy, he said.

Iannitelli said the elementary project beat back all the problems of a labor shortage and supply chain issues with very few snags. He said he does not anticipate many difficulties with the Boyle Athletic Complex project.

On education, Iannitelli said he wants to get back to the basics. He said he is concerned about COVID loss, after students have lost time in school over the past three years.

That has me concerned. Weve taken steps over the summer to make sure we continue to get kids back up to where they should be, he said.

He said education gaps are seen in all fields of study, though compared to the state, Smithfield is doing well on test scores. He said he wants to ensure no student is left behind, particularly those who are continually missing the mark.

I want to keep pressing on and moving forward for all the kids, he said.

Iannitelli, who is the president of Iannitelli Insurance Agency, said he brings experience and a reputation for listening to people no matter who they are or their position. He said he would like to restore the relationship and trust between the district and parents after a few difficult years.

Now is a really important time to set things straight again after a few crazy years. A lot of parents feel they have not been listened to, and a lot of parents are upset with the state of education, he said.

Iannitelli said he brings institutional knowledge to the school board after two incumbents retired . He said he knows how to run meetings, how the rules work, and has shared his knowledge with committee members and the public many times over the years.

When you know the ropes, you can get better at it, he said.

Fafard, 35, is a lifelong Smithfield resident and 2005 SHS graduate. She has three children who attend three schools in the district, including LaPerche and Pleasant View Elementary Schools and Gallagher Middle School. She is the co-chairperson of Smithfields Special Education Advisory Committee, Pleasant View PTO president, and also coached Smithfield girls basketball and softball.

Ive been around the town for a while. I take pride in saying Im from Smithfield, Fafard said.

She said as a School Committee member, she would like to improve relationships between faculty, staff and teachers while trying to give families back a voice. She said she would advocate for every child and parent and help to boost morale in town.

Parents feel they go to the School Committee and theyre not being heard, she said.

Fafard said she has a passion for special education, and in 2020, she gave up her career to go back to school to pursue a degree in special education to help implement programs and support services in Smithfield. She said it is important to work with children who have a range of learning abilities, much like her children, knowing that not every child fits into a square box.

Its important that, as a district, we expand that box, she said.

After working with administrators in the district, Fafard said Smithfields phenomenal teachers have not always felt their worth.

Its time to get our scores up, get children and staff mental health up, and improve buildings and programs, she said.

While the elementary schools look incredible, Fafard noted, she would also like to see the secondary education buildings in the district improved. She said the middle and high school remain pretty much the same since her father graduated from high school, and are outdated.

Its time to bring the other schools up to match, she said.

Updating schools will keep students and faculty in the district, she added. For those who do not have children in the schools and feel that investing in the school does not apply to them, she said a good district keeps house values high.

Everyone in town benefits from it, she said.

Sala, 41, has lived in Smithfield for 35 years and works at Fidelity Investments. Her three sons all attend Smithfield schools, and she said she became interested in serving on the school board after attending meetings the last couple of years.

She said there is room for improvement, and she would continue to bring transparency, and oversight to the curriculum, and get parents more involved than in the past.

Sala said she is excited for upcoming projects, such as the Boyle Athletic Complex, to be completed. She said the district did great work on the elementary schools, but the high and middle schools are also in need of repair. After graduating from Smithfield High School in 1998, she said much looks the same in the high school.

A big amount of money comes from the town budget and taxpayer dollars to our schools. I want to ensure the best use for our taxpayers, Sala said.

Sala said she wants to ensure the district focuses on the fundamentals of education, and does not remove any critical programming. She also wants Smithfield schools to focus on career opportunities in addition to college planning.

I want to put confidence in kids that there is nothing wrong in taking that path after high school. We need a focused effort in career planning as well. It is equally needed and valued as when you graduate to go off into a trade, she said.

Sala said she loves Smithfield, and has a vested interest in seeing the schools do well.

I think people really value and have pride in the town. I think thats really important, she said.

Fabiano, 39, is a recent graduate of the Police Academy, working at the Warren Police Department. A lifelong Smithfield resident and SHS graduate, he said he and his wife want to see the education in Smithfield improve.

Over the past few years, he said, the district has stumbled on education, and needs to get back to the basics. All three of his children are in the Smithfield school system.

Its best to stick to reading, writing and arithmetic, Fabiano said.

He said hes looking for students to have more freedom in school, and said students are getting pushed toward an agenda that the country was not founded on.

I think we should be a free society, and special interest groups are getting ahold of things and pushing their agenda, forcing their role on things and I dont think that is right, he said.

Fabiano said parents are not happy with the state of education, and said he is disappointed in how the $45 million elementary school project was done. Particularly, he said, he wanted to see air conditioning added in schools.

Supt. Dawn Bartz said each elementary school has air conditioning in the libraries, maker spaces, learning labs and main offices, while some classrooms, like rooms without windows, have units. She said central air throughout the buildings is not part of the project.

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Meet the candidates of the Republican primary for School Committee - Valley Breeze

Things appear to be looking up for Democratic Senate candidates.

As recently as a few months ago, Republicans were widely viewed as the favorites to take control of the Senate after the crucial US midterm elections this November. Given the current 50-50 split, Republicans only need to flip one seat to regain the majority in the upper chamber.

But now, the nomination of several controversial Republican candidates and a recent string of Democratic legislative victories have many election forecasters reconsidering their predictions. Democrats appear better positioned to keep the Senate now than at any other point of this election cycle, although experts emphasize that the outlook could significantly shift again before November.

Democrats have the benefit of a favorable Senate map this year, as they are not defending any seats in states carried by Donald Trump in 2020.

Democrats prospects have also been aided by Republicans failure to recruit top candidates in several states, including incumbent governors Doug Ducey of Arizona and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire. Instead, vulnerable Republicans were able to secure nominations in a number of key battleground states, often with the help of Trumps endorsement.

In Georgia, the former professional football player Herschel Walker has attracted scandal for failing to acknowledge the existence of two secret children and abusing his ex-wife. Walker has acknowledged the abuse, saying he was suffering from mental illness at the time.

In Pennsylvania, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz has alienated voters because of his past dubious health claims and his longtime residency in New Jersey before deciding to run for office.

In Ohio, author JD Vance has struggled to gain his footing, most recently being criticized because his now-shuttered non-profit dedicated to combating opioid addiction promoted the work of a doctor with ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

As Republican candidates have stumbled, Democrats have enjoyed a wave of wins on Capitol Hill.

Last week, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, a sweeping spending package that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in investments aimed at reducing the countrys planet-heating emissions and lowering Americans healthcare costs.

The supreme courts decision to overturn Roe v Wade, ending the federal right to abortion access, appears to be driving voters to the polls as well. On Tuesday, Democrat Pat Ryan won a hotly contested special congressional race in New York after running a campaign focused on protecting abortion rights.

Republican Senate candidates have indicated that abortion rights could be a weakness for them in the November elections. Blake Masters, who is running against Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona, altered his campaign website this week to delete some language expressing support for severe abortion restrictions.

All of those developments seem to be resonating in several key Senate races. According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have pulled slightly ahead in Ohio and Georgia, while the partys candidates in Pennsylvania and Arizona have opened larger leads of eight to nine points.

Retirements, recruitment failures and vicious primaries coupled with Trumps endorsements have left Republicans with a roster of flawed and deeply damaged candidates, while Democrats are running strong, battle-tested incumbents and challengers who are backed by their own unique coalition of voters, Christie Roberts, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a memo late last month.

Even senior Republicans have acknowledged that the tide has turned against them in the battle for the Senate. The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, said on Monday that the partys chances of regaining control of the chamber were 50-50.

Weve got a 50-50 Senate right now. Weve got a 50-50 nation, McConnell said at a business luncheon in Kentucky. And I think the outcome is likely to be very, very close either way.

Election forecasters have similarly picked up on this shift in momentum. FiveThirtyEights forecast model now says that Democrats are slightly favored to maintain control of the Senate, while the Cook Political Report updated its Senate prediction to toss-up last week.

I would have said, before primaries began in earnest at the start of May, that Republicans had at least a 60% shot of flipping Senate control, said Jessica Taylor, Cooks Senate and governors editor. We now see it as a pure toss-up, and I can see anywhere between Democrats picking up one seat to Republicans picking up three.

Democrats are not throwing away this new advantage, instead making a point to highlight their opponents weaknesses. One anti-Trump group aired an ad featuring Walkers ex-wife, Cindy Grossman, describing how he once held a gun to her head and threatened to kill her.

The Ohio Democratic party bought the abandoned website of Vances defunct non-profit, adding a greeting to the homepage reading, This site no longer exists because JD Vance is a fraud.

Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania has gone to increasingly humorous lengths to troll his opponent. At one point, Fettermans campaign circulated a petition calling for Oz to be inducted into New Jerseys Hall of Fame. Fetterman has even gone so far as to enlist the help of celebrities like Nicole Snooki Polizzi, from the reality television show Jersey Shore, to film ads encouraging Oz to come home to New Jersey.

Senate Democratic candidates have also enjoyed somewhat of a cash advantage in recent months. The DSCC reported a $10m haul in July, marking the fourth month in a row that the group outraised its counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The NRSC recently cut its ad buys in three battleground states, sparking questions about potential financial difficulties, although the committee fiercely pushed back against that speculation.

Weve invested in building our grassroots fundraising program, which has paid dividends this cycle and will benefit the NRSC and the party as a whole for cycles to come, Chris Hartline, the NRSCs communications director, said on Monday. We work closely with every one of our campaigns and will continue to do so.

But even if Democrats do manage to keep control of the Senate, Republicans are still favored to take back the House, partly because of their success in redistricting. If Congress is divided after the midterms, Democrats will face severe hurdles in trying to advance their legislative agenda.

Under that scenario, I expect [House] Republicans to overreach week in and week out, passing one form of extreme legislation after another when theyre not trying to investigate the Biden administration. All of which is going to die a quick, painful death in the Senate, said Jim Manley, who served as a senior adviser to Harry Reid, the late Senate Democratic leader.

Although it may be difficult to pass bills, a Democratic Senate majority could still reap significant rewards for Biden, particularly when it comes to presidential nominations. If another supreme court seat opens up between now and 2024, a Democratic Senate would help Biden add another liberal justice to the bench.

While there might not be much of a chance for legislating because the House will be dominated by extremists, it doesnt mean nothing can get done, Manley said. Maybe theres going to be a chance or two to try and work on a bipartisan basis after some negotiation, but the Senate I think would spend most of their time under such a scenario confirming judicial nominees.

Although things are looking up for Democrats now, experts caution that November is still a political eternity away, and Republicans have historical trends working in their favor. The presidents party usually loses seats in midterm elections, and Bidens approval rating has now been underwater for roughly a year, which could be enough for Republicans to flip the Senate.

While things are better for Democrats, it could swing back. This could just be a blip on the radar. I would not be shocked if thats the case and we sort of returned to a midterm stasis, where the party out of power has the momentum, Taylor said. But even if Democrats can cut into that some, it could mean keeping the Senate.

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As Republicans stumble could Democrats really hold on to the Senate? - The Guardian US

Here are five takeaways from a key primary night in Florida and New York:

It would have been easy to write Nebraska off as a fluke, after Democrats ran better than expected in a House race there last month. But then came Minnesota, where Democrats again beat expectations. And then, in New York on Tuesday, the dam broke.

Well, shit, one Republican strategist texted late Tuesday, as results from a Hudson Valley special election filtered in.

It would have been a victory for Democrats if theyd even kept it close. Instead, Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro in a district that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020, but that would have appeared to favor Republicans in a normal midterm climate.

Overall, on the last major primary night of the year, the winds appeared to be shifting in Democrats favor.

It can be tempting to read too much into special elections. Theyre not always predictive of results in the fall, and Republicans this year have overperformed in some places, too. In June, the GOP won a South Texas House seat that had been held by a Democrat.

But that was before Roe shook the political landscape. Ever since, its been nothing but one sign after another that Democrats while still widely expected to lose the House in November might not be in for the all-out drubbing once predicted.

The New York race to succeed Democrat Antonio Delgado in a New York House district is likely a better indicator than the House races in Minnesota or Nebraska. For one thing, its the most current data we have. But more than that, its a competitive district where both parties spent real money and tested their general election messaging abortion for Democrats, the economy for Republicans. It was about as close to a November test run as were going to get.

This is a Republican versus a Democrat. Theyre not crazy. No ones off the wall, said Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic strategist based in New York. Thats why its a good test.

Democrats passed and then some.

If Pat Ryan out-and-out wins, or even comes within 5 points of beating Molinaro, all projections of a red wave are completely overblown, said New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Reinish, a former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). This race is really a canary in a coal mine.

In a midterm cycle dominated by Donald Trump, it was a House race in Florida on Tuesday that laid bare more clearly than anywhere just how much Republicans are willing to stomach in their service to the former president and his fiercest allies.

Not even a federal investigation into whether Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) had sex with a 17-year-old girl and paid her for it (Gaetz has denied any wrongdoing) was enough to dent his MAGA celebrity. Not even close.

Gaetz, a Trump favorite, beat his closest opponent by more than 40 percentage points.

With the primaries all but finished now, Trumps midterm record is not without blemishes. There was his humiliation in Georgia in May. His preferred candidates lost gubernatorial races in Idaho and Nebraska. And in New Hampshire, Trump-world failed to find any prominent Republican to run against the incumbent governor, Chris Sununu. Sununu, who called Trump fucking crazy at the roast-style Gridiron Club dinner this year, is likely to easily win re-nomination in his primary next month.

But for the most part from J.D. Vances victory in the Ohio Senate primary in May to Rep. Liz Cheneys (R-Wyo.) ouster in Wyoming last week the midterms belonged to the former president.

Gaetz was the icing on the cake.

In general, probably the former president has maybe even a better win-loss record than some people would have expected, said Mark Graul, a Republican strategist who worked on George W. Bushs 2004 campaign.

If Trump-ism is ever going to flush its way through the Republican Party, he said, the lesson of this years primaries is that its going to take more than one election cycle.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis political muscle was on full display Tuesday night, as candidates he endorsed won a handful of key state legislative races and a wave of school board seats, which were a main focus for the governor in the final weeks of the 2022 midterm.

DeSantis biggest legislative win was Republican Kiyan Michael, who is running for a Jacksonville state House seat. Michael was running against more established and better funded politicians, including a former state representative.

DeSantis did not endorse until late in the race, but his support gave Michael immediate momentum to overcome her Republican rivals. She ended up securing 47 percent of the vote in a three-way primary.

DeSantis also backed Florida Senate candidate Blaise Ingoglia and Jonathan Martin, both Republicans. The impact of the governors endorsement was felt long before Election Day because it cleared a potentially crowded field in both races.

For the final weeks of primary season, DeSantis put an outsized effort, including contributions from his personal political committee, into local school boards across the state. Its part of his broader agenda to reshape Floridas education system.

It worked. Of the 30 school board candidates that got DeSantis formal support, 21 won their election bids Tuesday night.

Florida Republicans, with DeSantis taking the lead, have poured thousands of dollars into school board races this election cycle, elevating those generally sleepy races into top midterm targets for the GOP, and putting at times surprised Democrats on underfunded defense.

Defense contractor Cory Mills boasted that he would make the media shed real tears after news accounts reported on how his company sold tear gas used on Black Lives Matters demonstrators. Mills has also questioned the legitimacy of President Joe Bidens win in 2020.

Anna Paulina Luna, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, alleged last year that a handful of her rivals were engaged in a conspiracy to kill her.

Both are poised to join the Republican caucus in Congress after winning their respective primaries for Floridas 7th and Floridas 13th congressional districts. The contests in both races were noisy, bitter and expensive.

The GOP candidates are likely to win in November because the districts were reshaped to favor Republican candidates under a controversial new congressional map championed by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Currently Republicans hold a 16-11 edge in Floridas congressional delegation. After adding one seat due to population growth, the new map is projected to give the GOP a 20-8 margin in the next session of Congress.

The result was that Republicans vying for the new seats shifted even further to the right.

It didnt work for all candidates. Laura Loomer, a far-right activist who has been kicked off social media platforms for anti-Islamic posts, came close to knocking off longtime GOP incumbent Rep. Dan Webster. But Webster buoyed by votes in his home county managed to beat her by a few thousand votes in the race for Floridas 11th congressional district. Another candidate Martin Hyde said FBI agents would have wound up in a body bag if they had searched his home like they did Mar-a-Lago. But longtime incumbent Rep. Vern Buchanan soundly thrashed Hyde in the GOP primary for Floridas 16th congressional district.

Everything we know about the overturning of Roe v. Wade is that it will likely be a major motivator for Democrats in the fall.

What abortion does not appear to be given Nikki Frieds wipeout in the Florida gubernatorial primary on Tuesday night is singularly determinative.

Fried, the state agriculture commissioner once heavily promoted as the future of the Democratic Party in the state had spent much of the primary campaign casting her opponent, Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), as at best untrustworthy on the issue. Crist, a former Republican governor of the state before morphing into an independent and, eventually, a Democrat, said during his U.S. Senate run in 2010 that he would advocate for pro-life legislative efforts.

Even days before this years primary, when asked if he was pro-life, Crist responded, Im for life, arent you? before adding, Ive been pro-choice in every single decision Ive made that affects a womens right to choose.

So, whats more important to Democrats than Roe?

Electability, it seems.

I think the litmus test question in this race is who is the candidate who can best defeat DeSantis, which is a strategic question that I think most Democratic voters are applying, said Fernand Amandi, a veteran Democratic pollster and consultant in Florida.

Crist is widely considered an extreme longshot in the general election against DeSantis, even among Democrats.

But paradoxically, while Crist needed to survive the politics of abortion to win on Tuesday, its that same thing that he will need to be competitive at all in November.

If not for Roe, Amandi said, Im not certain that the Democrat would have a chance.

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Democrats gain momentum: 5 takeaways from the last big primary night of 2022 - POLITICO