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Texas-based drag queen Kylee Ohara Fatale slams the effort by Republican lawmakers to ban drag and attack the trans community in her state. (Kylee Ohara Fatale/Mark Mayr)

Within the space of just a few days, two Texas Republicans introduced separate piece of legislation targeting drag performers who perform in front of minors.

Its part of a wave of legislation across red states that Republicans say are about protecting children.

But Texas drag queen Kylee Ohara Fatale sees through the rhetoric she says its a distraction technique to mask the real target.

That is, of course, to attack the trans community as well as trans youth, Kylee tells PinkNews.

These bills are not to protect children as they say because, if that was the case, we shouldnt be having conversion therapy.

We wouldnt have Hooters being allowed to let children into their restaurant restaurants that are showing sexualised images and sexualised objects that kids can still go to these days.

Conservative legislators in over a dozen states including Texas have proposed measures that would restrict drag performances. A majority outright ban what Republicans deem sexual public performances by male and female impersonators in the presence of minors.

This language could very easily, many believe, be used against trans people.

I really hate it the vague wording in a lot of these drag bills are literally attacking trans people, Kylee says. That makes me so scared because my trans sisters cant even go speak in church or sing in church because basically now that [would be] illegal.

Its easy to target the weird looking group drag queens but essentially were like crazy party clowns, she adds.

Its easy to target us and make us out to be the villains because its so hard for the outside person to understand drag.

And by then doing this and united in this knotted front of hate to attack drag queens, they can sneakily throw in all these bills that are actually to damage and attack the trans community.

For Kylee, drag has been life changing. It allowed her to figure out who she was, to embrace her gayness.

Drag showed me, personally, that what I was living the first 23 years of my life was the drag, and then this is the real me.

While Kylee worries about Texas potentially following Tennessees lead, by actually passing legislation that would stop drag queens from performing, she knows shed be OK.

For me, drag is a job. At the end of the day, if God forbid, knock on wood, these drag bills passed and Im out of a job, its not going to affect how I exist.

If these bills pass, for most trans people, it is literally going to affect how they exist. Its basically making being trans illegal. Its the erasure of the trans community.

Over the past year, Texas has made headlines for governor Greg Abbotts continued attacks on the affirming families of trans youth in the state. In February 2022, Abbott ordered the states child protective services toinvestigatehealthcare providers and families of trans kids who help them medically transition in any way.

The order led to parentsliving in fearthat their kids would be ripped away from them, and a legal battle that made it all the way to theTexas Supreme Court.

Republicans in the state have repeatedly lashed out at gender-affirming healthcare both for trans youth and trans adults. Theyve also banned trans youth fromparticipating in school sportsand introduced legislation rolling back discussions on LGBTQ+ topics in schools, also known as aDont Say Gay or Trans bill.

In March alone, two Republican lawmakers introduced separate anti-drag bills.

Republican congressman Steve Toth filed a bill that would ban drag performances and create a cause of action that would allow people who attended a drag show as a child totake the performer to court.

Bryan Slaton, a Republican state representative with ahistory of attacking drag, filed a bill that would make it a felony if a drag performance occurred in the presence of a minor.

When it comes to the fight for LGBTQ+ and trans rights, Kylee says the best thing that anyone can do is be seen. Its a big reason why she calls herself the pop of colour, the POC of Texas because shes the loudest thing in the room visibly if not audibly when she shows up in bright kaleidoscopic garb.

Thats why Im always so colourful with everything I do so that people can look at me, so that I can speak on the issues that are near and dear to my heart, which of course, inclusion as well as just stopping all queer hate, she says. Hate is such a foolish emotion, especially when it comes to human beings. Were all the same on the inside.

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Drag queen points out the huge flaw in Republican anti-drag logic - PinkNews

US supreme court

Texas senator claims court dominated 6-3 by conservatives after ruthless GOP power plays must remain independent

The Republican senator Ted Cruz, whose party defied convention to delay then rush conservatives on to the supreme court, has introduced a constitutional amendment to stop Democrats expanding the court in response.

The Democrats answer to a supreme court that is dedicated to upholding the rule of law and the constitution is to pack it with liberals who will rule the way they want, Cruz said.

The supreme court should be independent, not inflated by every new administration. Thats why Ive introduced a constitutional amendment to permanently keep the number of justices at nine.

There is no constitutional provision for how many justices sit on the court.

Democrats say the current court is not independent of the Republican party.

In 2016, when the conservative Antonin Scalia died Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, held the seat open until a Republican president, Donald Trump, could replace a Democrat, Barack Obama, and nominate Scalias replacement. Neil Gorsuch filled that seat.

In 2020, Democrats were helpless again when Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal lion, died shortly before the presidential election and McConnell changed course, rushing Amy Coney Barrett on to the court before Trump lost to Joe Biden.

Those changes and the replacement of the retiring Anthony Kennedy with Brett Kavanaugh produced a court dominated, 6-3, by conservatives.

Conservative justices including Coney Barrett and Clarence Thomas have claimed not to be influenced by political considerations.

Coney Barrett notably did so, saying the court is not comprised of a bunch of partisan hacks, while standing next to McConnell at a political studies centre named for the Republican leader.

Among conservative rulings passed down by the new super-majority, a May 2022 decision saw the court side with Cruz in a case concerning personal loans to campaigns. The three liberal justices said the ruling paved the way for corruption.

But the Dobbs decision of last year, removing the right to abortion, most enraged Democrats and progressives.

On the left, plans have been floated to increase the size of the court and thereby redress its ideological balance.

Writing for the Guardian last year, David Daley, author of Ratf**ked: Why Your Vote Doesnt Count, said: The courts hard-right majority has neither popular support for its agenda nor institutional legitimacy.

It is the product of a hostile takeover of the courts 50 years in the planning by conservatives who have long understood that unpopular policies can be thrust upon Americans by an unaccountable and unelected judiciary.

The court must be expanded and reformed to counter a rightwing power play that threatens to remake American democracy and life itself.

Biden ordered a commission to study options for reform. It found bipartisan support for term limits for justices but reported profound disagreement on whether the court should be expanded. Biden has said he is not a fan of expanding the court.

Cruzs amendment has little chance of passing a Democratic-held Senate but 10 Republican senators supported it nonetheless.

Josh Hawley of Missouri said: For years the left has been desperate to pack the court to promote their radical agenda. We must ensure that we stay true to the courts founding principles, maintain the precedent of nine justices, and keep the Democrats from their brazen attempts to rig our democracy.

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Republican Ted Cruz introduces bill to block US supreme court expansion - The Guardian

WASHINGTON The chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell, has repeatedly undercut a central claim Republicans make as they seek sharp cuts in federal spending: Government spending is driving the nations still-hot inflation rate.

Republican lawmakers say spending programs signed into law by President Biden are pumping too much money into the economy and fueling an annual inflation rate that was 6 percent in February a decline from last years highs, but still well above historical norms. Mr. Powell disputed those claims in congressional testimony earlier this month and in a news conference on Wednesday, after the Fed announced it would once again raise interest rates in an effort to bring inflation back toward normal levels.

Asked whether federal tax and spending policies were contributing to price growth, Mr. Powell pointed to a decline in federal spending from the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

You have to look at the fiscal impulse from spending, Mr. Powell said on Wednesday, referring to a measure of how much tax and spending policies are adding or subtracting to economic growth. Fiscal impulse is actually not whats driving inflation right now. It was at the beginning perhaps, but thats not the story right now.

Instead, Mr. Powell along with Mr. Biden and his advisers says rapid price growth is primarily being driven by factors like snarled supply chains, an oil shock following Russias invasion of Ukraine and a shift among American consumers from spending money on services like travel and dining out to goods like furniture.

Mr. Powell has also said the low unemployment rate was playing a role: Some part of the high inflation that were experiencing is very likely related to an extremely tight labor market, he told a House committee earlier this month.

But the Fed chairs position has not swayed congressional Republicans, who continue to press Mr. Biden to accept sharp spending reductions in exchange for raising the legal limit on how much the federal government can borrow.

Over the last two years, this administrations reckless spending and failed economic policies have resulted in continued record inflation, soaring interest rates and an economy in a recessionary tailspin, Representative Jodey C. Arrington, Republican of Texas and the chairman of the Budget Committee, said at a hearing on Thursday.

Republicans have attacked Mr. Biden over inflation since he took office. They denounced the $1.9 trillion economic aid package he signed into law early in 2021 and warned it would stoke damaging inflation. Mr. Bidens advisers largely dismissed those warnings. So did Mr. Powell and Fed officials, who were holding interest rates near zero and taking other steps at the time to stoke a faster recovery from the pandemic recession.

Economists generally agree that those stimulus efforts carried out by the Fed, by Mr. Biden and in trillions of dollars of pandemic spending signed by Mr. Trump in 2020 helped push the inflation rate to its highest level in 40 years last year. But researchers disagree on how large that effect was, and over how to divide the blame between federal government stimulus and Fed stimulus.

How Times reporters cover politics.We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.

One recent model, from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the University of Maryland and Harvard University, estimates that about a third of the inflation from December 2019 through June 2022 was caused by fiscal stimulus measures.

Much of that stimulus has already made its way through the economy. Spending on pandemic aid to people, businesses and state and local governments fell sharply over the last year, as emergency programs signed into law by Mr. Biden and former President Donald J. Trump expired. The federal budget deficit fell to about $1.4 trillion in the 2022 fiscal year from about $2.8 trillion in 2021.

The Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington estimates that in the first quarter of 2021, when Mr. Bidens economic aid bill delivered direct payments, enhanced unemployment checks and other benefits to millions of Americans, government fiscal policy added 8 percentage points to economic growth. At the end of last year, the center estimates, declining government spending was actually reducing economic growth by 1 percentage point.

Still, even Biden administration officials say some effects of Mr. Bidens and Mr. Trumps stimulus bills could still be contributing to higher prices. Thats because Americans did not immediately spend all the money they got from the government in 2020 and 2021. They saved some of it, and now, some consumers are drawing on those savings to buy things.

Increased consumer spending from savings could be pushing the cost of goods and services higher, White House economists conceded this week in their annual Economic Report of the President, which includes summaries of the past years developments in the economy.

If the drawdown of excess savings, together with current income, boosted aggregate demand, it could have contributed to high inflation in 2021 and 2022, the report says.

Some liberal economists contend consumer demand is currently playing little if any role in price growth placing the blame on supply challenges or on companies taking advantage of their market power and the economic moment to extract higher prices from consumers.

High prices are not being driven by excess demand, but are actually being driven by things like a supply chain crisis or war in Ukraine or corporate profiteering, said Rakeen Mabud, chief economist for the Groundwork Collaborative, a liberal policy organization in Washington.

Other economists, though, say Mr. Biden and Congress could help the Feds inflation-fighting efforts by doing even more to reduce consumer demand and cool growth, either by raising taxes or reducing spending.

Mr. Biden proposed a budget this month that would cut projected budget deficits by $3 trillion over the next decade, largely by raising taxes on high earners and corporations. Republicans refuse to raise taxes but are pushing for immediate cuts in government spending on health care, antipoverty measures and more, though they have not released a formal budget proposal yet. The Republican-controlled House voted this year to repeal some tax increases Mr. Biden signed into law last year, a move that could add modestly to inflation.

Republican lawmakers have pushed Mr. Powell on whether he would welcome more congressional efforts to reduce the deficit and help bring inflation down. Mr. Powell rebuffed them.

We take fiscal policy as it comes to our front door, stick it in our model along with a million other things, he said on Wednesday. And we have responsibility for price stability. The Federal Reserve has the responsibility for that, and nothing is going to change that.

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Republicans Say Spending Is Fueling Inflation. The Fed Chair Disagrees. - The New York Times

Mike Gallagher, a 39-year-old former Marine, is widely viewed as a rising star in the GOP thanks to his vocal stance on China policy and prolific fundraising. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

A public break with former President Donald Trump has been career suicide for many an ambitious GOP lawmaker in recent years. It might just be a boon for Rep. Mike Gallagher.

Top party officials in D.C. and back home in Wisconsin maintain the fourth-term congressman and new head of the China Select Committee represents their best shot at flipping the battlegrounds Senate seat in 2024.

There is just one thing they have to do first: convince him to run.

The 39-year-old former Marine is widely viewed as a rising star in the GOP thanks to his vocal stance on China policy and prolific fundraising. Beyond that, key Republicans say his criticism of Trump might just bolster his credibility with the very voters theyve lost in recent cycles. His nomination would be a strong indication the party is shifting gears and learning the lessons from 2022.

Gallagher has been evasive about his plans. But people close to him say hes not inclined to challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a formidable campaigner and fundraiser in her own right. And they also recognize that Gallaghers break with Trump over Jan. 6, and recent insistence that the former president lost [his] support, will be tricky to navigate, particularly in a potentially messy primary, given Trumps immense sway over the party in recent years.

Should Gallagher pass on the contest, it could not only hurt Republicans chances of claiming the Senate in 2024, it would further underscore the hurdles the party faces in finding a winning electoral formula in a post-Trump world.

In their bid to oust Baldwin, senior Wisconsin Republicans are eager to find a candidate who can bring back the independent and moderate Republican voters in key suburbs who broke with the former president in 2020 and several of his top picks in 2022.

There are some signs that the former presidents grip on the GOP is beginning to slip. He has failed to scare away other presidential primary candidates and recent polling shows hed face stiff competition from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, among other potential contenders. In Wisconsin, where Ted Cruz beat Trump in the 2016 GOP primary, DeSantis led Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup with Biden, according to a Marquette Law Poll from late January. But Trumps standing in national primary polls has improved since then. And an impending indictment in a hush-money case has compelled many in the party to rally around the former president once more.

One Wisconsin Republican close to Gallagher, who was granted anonymity to talk about their private conversations with him, brushed off the notion that his public break with Trump would hurt him significantly in a future GOP primary. The person noted that the congressman didnt vote to impeach Trump or approve an independent commission to investigate the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Instead, the person said Gallaghers relatively lean legislative record on Wisconsin issues is his biggest vulnerability.

He hasnt been all that focused on whats been going on at home, said the Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations. If theres an Achilles heel, its there, not Trump.

Gallaghers profile in the party has risen rapidly since he was first elected to Congress in 2016, the same year Trump took the White House especially in his role as a leading voice on China policy. He burnished his hard-nosed stance as Trump took aim at Chinas unfair trading practices and other malign activities, though the economic fallout from the ensuing trade war fell on U.S. agriculture, a top industry in Gallaghers home state. Asked if he supported Trumps recent campaign proposal that would levy more tariffs on Chinese goods, something that has raised alarm among some other farm state Republicans, the new head of the House China Select Committee said he wasnt aware of the former presidents proposal to overhaul U.S. trade with China.

Despite his tensions with Trump, many Republicans are now openly suggesting Gallagher may be the partys best chance to oust Baldwin, the battle-tested incumbent Democrat, who has already amassed a huge war chest.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who is leading Senate Republicans effort to flip the chamber and has suggested he will help tap more mainstream candidates this cycle, did not hide his enthusiasm about the prospect of the congressman joining the race.

Mike Gallagher would be a great candidate, Daines said. Hes the kind of candidate that with his distinguished service and then time in Congress, could win both the primary and general election.

If Mike got in, everybody would know thats the total package, said Brian Schimming, the states Republican party chair.

Trumps specter looms, however. Republicans in Wisconsin expect the former president to campaign there around the time of the state GOP convention in June, if not earlier. And Republicans hold their national convention in Milwaukee in July 2024.

For now, Gallagher insists that he is focused on his high-profile new post as the House GOPs preeminent China hawk, and not any potential future campaign.

Wisconsin Republicans close to the congressman describe him as whip smart, but also incredibly risk averse and extremely deliberative, sometimes to a point where hes slow to make decisions. They expect him, however, to likely leave the House after his current or following term in Congress, given his push early in his congressional career to limit House members to six terms in office.

Those Republicans say Gallagher, who beat his last Democratic challenger by 30 points in one of the few semi-swing regions left in the state, is more interested in a 2028 bid to replace Ron Johnson, should the states current GOP senator retire as expected, or a possible 2026 gubernatorial run, rather than facing Baldwin, whose own retail politics and fundraising skills make her an intimidating foe.

Should a Republican other than Trump win the White House in 2024, Gallagher, a one-time foreign policy aide to former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walkers presidential campaign, may be inclined to pursue a role in the administration, according to a Wisconsin GOP lawmaker and another Republican who was granted anonymity to speak openly about their private conversations with Gallagher. A role like national security adviser, Navy secretary or secretary of State would allow him to better deploy his expertise on China and foreign policy.

The opportunities for Mike become pretty wide, said one of the Republicans.

As the Wisconsin GOP field waits on Gallagher to make his 2024 plans known, Baldwin has been making moves of her own. Shes preparing to formally launch her campaign shortly after Wisconsins closely-watched state supreme court race April 4, according to two people familiar with the plans who were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. Long able to shake the national Democratic brand, Baldwin has consistently outperformed fellow Democrats in the state, including in Gallaghers home district in the northeast, which spans the city of Green Bay, nearby suburbs and vast stretches of dairy farms, small towns and tribal lands.

Despite Baldwins past campaign success, senior Wisconsin Democrats believe her upcoming reelection race will be much closer, and won or lost on the margins like most statewide contests in recent years. Baldwins longtime aide Scott Spector is poised for a senior role in her reelect effort according to the two people with knowledge of the campaign plans.

Other possible GOP challengers who may jump in should Gallagher choose not to run include former state Sen. Roger Roth, who won the states Republican primary for lieutenant governor last August, according to people familiar with the plans.

Current Reps. Bryan Steil and Tom Tiffany, who has recently been traveling more within the state, have also been floated as possible candidates, especially if redistricting squeezes some members out of their seats. (Since the news of Trumps possible indictment, Steil and other House GOP members have rushed to defend the former president through letters and on Twitter. Gallaghers office has meanwhile avoided the subject, tweeting about student loans and local school sports state champions.) Trumps former White House chief of staff Reince Priebus was heavily involved in the midterms, sparking questions as to whether he was laying the groundwork for a run of his own.

David Clarke, a Trump acolyte and former Milwaukee Sheriff; former GOP Rep. Sean Duffy; former Senate and gubernatorial candidate Kevin Nicholson; and Eric Hovde, a wealthy Republican businessman who waged an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2012 are other names that have come up in conversations with GOP officials.

But another Wisconsin Republican acknowledged that many of those candidates have already used up a lot of their political capital in prior races. Its not a very deep bench.

Gallagher now appears to be keeping everything in play.

Asked earlier this month on Capitol Hill if he had any interest in challenging Baldwin next year, Gallagher said, My sole focus is on the select committee on the CCP not thinking about 2024.

He took a few steps and added: And providing the best constituent services for northeast Wisconsin.

Here is the original post:
Republicans' best hope for Wisconsin Senate is a Trump critic - POLITICO

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Its time for us to revisit the Glenn Youngkin-for-president chatter.

Since the last time I looked at this, several noteworthy things have happened.

a. Hes appeared on a CNN town hall, with mixed reviews.

b. Hes met with major donors, most recently in Dallas.

c. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has raised his own national profile, not always in useful ways. (Calling Russias invasion of Ukraine a territorial dispute may please the growing isolationist camp with the Republican Party but was quickly denounced by what remains of those who consider Ronald Reagan their ideological guidepost.)

d. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley has formally announced her candidacy and others have moved closer to doing so.

e. And, oh yes, the presumed frontrunner former President Donald Trump has said hell be indicted (although his prediction of a Tuesday indictment didnt come to pass and neither did a Wednesday one).

So where do things with Youngkin stand now? There are two basic questions: Will Youngkin run? And does he stand a chance? I have zero insight into the former but I will attempt to analyze the latter. To do this, we must think like Republicans (this will be easier for some of you than others).

By multiple measures, enthusiasm for Trump seems lower than it was but remains significant enough that he consistently leads polling for the Republican nomination. There are those who believe that an indictment will actually help him. Ill confess I find this a mystery. Of the possible cases against Trump, this one is said to be legally the weakest. Those who make that argument (and some of them have been Democrats) point out that in 2011 former Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards was indicted on six felony charges for allegedly using campaign funds to cover up an affair. Edwards was found not guilty on one charge; the jury deadlocked on the others and the case was never brought back. Politically, though, Edwards was finished. Democrats now never mention his name; he is considered a great embarrassment to the party.

Why is the Republican reaction to Trump possibly getting indicted on what may be essentially the same charges so different? I dont recall Democrats lamenting that the case against Edwards was politically motivated; they considered him a slimeball and wanted nothing to do with him. I would not have predicted that Republicans, the party of family values, would be the party more forgiving of a candidate allegedly having an affair (and with a porn star!). In any case, Trump seems to remain popular with a significant portion of Republicans and an indictment, if it comes, may not change that. Politically, it seems clear: Trump will not fall of his own accord. He will only be brought down if Republicans dramatically change their minds and that may not happen until other Republicans try to take him down. Youngkin will not be that candidate; that is not his nature. He recently told columnist George Will: Ive made it through two years without calling anyone a name. Youngkin would surely be happier if someone else did that dirty work. Given his almost nonexistent standing in the polls, Youngkins best chance would be if both Trump and other, better-known candidates self-destructed and the party went searching for alternatives. That scenario, though, requires someone to go after Trump. Who will that be?

Trump does best when he doesnt have to win a majority of the vote, only a plurality. He never won a majority of the popular vote in either of his presidential campaigns. More importantly, he didnt start winning a majority of the vote in the 2016 Republican primaries until after the contest was nearly done and all but a few candidates had dropped out. Remember, he initially lost the Iowa caucuses, where he took just 24.3%, the second-lowest share for any Republican second-place candidate ever in the Iowa caucuses. In New Hampshire, he won with just 35.2% of the vote, the second-lowest percentage ever for a winner on the Republican side of the New Hampshire presidential primary.In South Carolina, he won with just 32.5% of the vote, the lowest percentage ever for any winning candidate on either side in the states presidential primary. Nevertheless, those primaries were considered decisive because Trump did win but he won only because the vote was so split among other candidates. If Republicans want to defeat Trump, they need to unite around a single candidate but thats not happening for the same reason it didnt happen in 2016. Everyone thinks they should be the one.

Heres where the scenario for Youngkin becomes more complicated. Its easy to see Trump winning the nomination: Hes the frontrunner. Its easy to see DeSantis winning the nomination: Hes the next-strongest. Its also easy to see one of the other well-known candidates catching fire and finding a path to the nomination Haley, for instance, or former Vice President Mike Pence. Id rank the likelihood of those scenarios in that order: Trump first, DeSantis second, another well-known candidate third. Its not impossible for someone else to ride a groundswell of support to the top, but a lot harder to imagine. It would involve an intensive campaign, and Republicans becoming dissatisfied with both Trump and DeSantis and the other second-tier candidates. Thats possible, of course lots of things are possible but historically improbable. A win in either Iowa or New Hampshire is not predictive; weve seen Iowa losers (such as Trump in 2016) go on to win the nomination. Weve seen candidates who didnt win either one go on to win the nomination (Joe Biden in 2020). However, not since Jimmy Carter in 1976 have we seen someone win the nomination who wasnt part of the national conversation as a serious contender well before the first votes were cast. Even Trump was a frontrunner in the polls by the late summer of 2015. If Youngkin runs, hell be attempting something that hasnt been done for a long time.

The election calendar works against any Virginia governor who wants to seek the presidency: As soon as the governor is sworn in, he or she would have to start running. You can argue that Youngkin already is, but what hes really done so far is flirt with the notion, and try to raise his national profile. An actual campaign would require a lot more time commitment. Lets set aside the question of how forgiving Virginians might or might not be about that. Heres the real catch: We have General Assembly elections this November, and all 140 seats are up for grabs. The balance of power in both chambers is on the line. Virginia Republicans need Youngkin here at home; he is reasonably popular and is arguably their best asset in these elections. He wont be, though, if hes in Montgomery County, Iowa, and not Montgomery County, Virginia. Youngkin also needs these Virginia elections to go well. If Democrats win both chambers, thats hardly an endorsement of his leadership. On the other hand, if Republicans can hold the House and win back the Senate, then Youngkin has a potentially powerful talking point nationally: Look how I flipped Virginia. The question is: By November 2023, would that be too late? Is it possible for him to hold back and not launch a campaign until after the legislative elections? Hed have just under three months before the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 5, 2024. The great philosopher Jerry Reed said it best in his classic treatise East Bound and Down: Weve got a long way to go, and a short time to get there.

Biden is not particularly popular but hes also a good example of the principle of two campers being chased by a bear. The one camper doesnt need to be faster than the bear, just faster than the other camper. Biden doesnt need to be popular, he just needs to be seen as a safer choice than the Republican nominee. Weve reelected unpopular presidents before. Thats why some Democrats are hoping Trump is the Republican nominee again; they think hell be easier to beat in 2024 than he was in 2020, and he got beaten then.

My sense is that voters are hungry for generational change, and yet another campaign between Biden and Trump doesnt satisfy that desire. A different and younger Republican nominee might. DeSantis may have the same appeal to some that Trump does, just without Trumps liabilities. But he may also have many of the same disadvantages. He seems to be an angry man. Maybe thats what some Republicans want, but is that really what Americans overall want? More to the point, is it what swing voters want? Columnist Will pondered that question when he wrote favorably of Youngkin and unfavorably of DeSantis: One can consider DeSantiss dislikes admirable but still wonder: Do most Republicans, does the nation, want another president defined by truculence? American politics, indeed American life, has become unhealthily president-centric. It would become even more so with a president who, having campaigned as a brawler, could claim a mandate for incessant interventions in cultural disputes best conducted below the presidency. Political parties, though, often nominate candidates who arent in their best interest.

This ventures away from fact-based opinion into purely speculative opinion but my sense is that people are weary of politics. Thats one of the reasons some voted for Biden over Trump; they wanted a president they didnt have to think about every day. If some now regret that choice, its because of Bidens policies, not his absence of insults on Twitter. Id be willing to gamble that a younger, more optimistic Republican nominee, especially one fresh to the national scene, would be the partys strongest choice. Youngkin would sure fit that bill. So, too, would some others such as Haley and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. If we were still in the era of the proverbial smoke-filled room, I could see one of those three getting named the party nominee. Thats not how nominations are decided these days, though.

Ultimately, my analysis hasnt changed since I first looked at this last summer: The odds remain against Youngkin. But if he wants to run, hell be following the lead foot of that great philosopher Reed: We gonna do what they say cant be done.

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What are Gov. Youngkin's chances of winning the Republican ... - Cardinal News