Mediaboss Marketing

The cheering is still echoing in my ears and bits of brightly colored confetti are stubbornly clinging to my head. Not since the raucous celebration in Times Square of the end of World War II has there been euphoria to rival what the House Republicans triggered last week.

At the very last minute, in Perils of Pauline fashion, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., aided by an outpouring of Democratic votes, managed to delay a partial government shutdown until March.

Wow! Johnsons hat trick rivals the achievements of such legislative masters as Kentucky Sen. Henry Clay in the 1830s and House Speaker Sam Rayburn in the 1950s. This is the stuff of legend: For all 29 days of February, no one in America need worry that the government will run out of money.

Of course, there are naysayers. Marjorie Taylor Greene is openly talking about an effort to oust Johnson. The Georgia GOP firebrand told Politico, I dont think hes safe right now. The only reason hes speaker is because our conference is so desperate.

New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who chairs the House Republican Conference and is openly auditioning to be Donald Trumps running mate, voted against the temporary funding extension. She was joined in her apostasy by more than 100 other House Republicans.

It is easy to get a glimmer of the future. Maybe Johnson will hang on as speaker until the November elections. Or maybe the nation will be treated to another motion to vacate and another enervating series of roll call votes to pick a new sucker sorry, I meant to type speaker.

Poet T.S. Eliot declared, April is the cruelest month. That may especially be the case in Washington if Johnson and Co. cannot figure out a way to navigate through the coming March government funding crises.

Meanwhile, House Republicans in their ideological zeal seem determined to reject any compromise immigration bill being negotiated in the Senate. Johnson wants to delay any immigration legislation until Donald Trump is again president.

So what if Johnson is poised to reject the first serious effort in years to control the chaos on our southern border? So what if Johnson is willing to let aid to Ukraine go down the tubes as part of a package deal on immigration?

The House Republicans are living in a fairy tale world. Alas, the fairy tale is taken from the Grimm Brothers and the Republicans are emulating Rumpelstiltskin, stomping their feet through the ground when they dont get their way.

Reality check: There is no coherent strategy for House Republicans to prevail, with their fragile three-vote majority, when the Democrats control the Senate and the White House. That may explain why they are banking on divine intervention in the form of a second Trump presidency.

Of course, the House Republicans have a glorious opportunity to impeach someone, for some ill-defined constitutional offense, if imperiled GOP incumbents in swing districts somehow go along. Will it be Joe Biden or a Cabinet member like Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas or Attorney General Merrick B. Garland?

Personally, Im betting on Colonel Mustard in the conservatory with the lead pipe.

All this ineffectual maneuvering by the House Republicans gives rise to a political question: Does a congressional party ever pay a price at the ballot box for sheer incompetence?

History is littered with the sad tales of presidents who have stumbled. Think of Herbert Hoover with the Great Depression, Jimmy Carter with the Iranian hostage crisis and that Trump fellow with COVID-19.

Even second-term presidents can pay a serious price for their reign of error: Nancy Pelosi originally became House speaker after the 2006 elections because of George W. Bushs mishandling of the Iraq War and Hurricane Katrina.

We know that individual members of Congress are vulnerable for their personal misdeeds.

GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert, who has a strange idea of proper decorum in a theater, had to move to a safer Colorado House district after she became a laughingstock for her own personal performance while attending Beetlejuice in Denver.

It is a virtually certain bet that New Jersey Democrat Robert Menendez will not be returning to the Senate next year after federal agents, according to a criminal indictment, found nearly $500,000 in cash and 13 gold bars in a raid on his home.

And, in these polarized times, dozens of congressional incumbents, particularly Republicans, live in mortal terror of a primary challenge based on a handful of votes plucked out of context by a militant challenger.

That said, it is hard to find an example of a political party punished at the polls for its inability to manage a congressional majority.

Yes, in his 1948 presidential upset, Harry Truman successfully ran against the Republican 80th do-nothing Congress. But in contrast to 2024, then-Republican House Speaker Joe Martin was legislatively adept and merely disagreed with Trumans political agenda.

Many factors could cost the Republicans control of the House this November. Final redistricting decisions in states like New York and North Carolina will play a major role. And, assuming Trump is at the top of the GOP ticket, the presidential election will dominate everything.

But there is scant evidence that blundering ineptitude by an entire party will be a voting issue. To understand how ill-suited the House Republicans are to actually running anything requires a knowledge of Capitol Hill that an overwhelming majority of voters have no interest in acquiring.

So as the House Republicans spend 2024 lurching from one self-inflicted disaster to another, enjoy the spectacle of a party that couldnt govern straight. But dont expect it to matter in November.

Walter Shapiro is a staff writer for The New Republic and a lecturer in political science at Yale. He is a veteran of USA Today, Time, Newsweek and The Washington Post.

Excerpt from:
Will voters punish total incompetence? House Republicans are about to find out - Roll Call

Republican presidential candidates seized on the Hamas attack on Israel Saturday to try to lay blame on President Biden, drawing a connection between the surprise assault and a recent hostage release deal between the United States and Iran, a longtime backer of the group.

Former President Donald J. Trump, who has frequently presented himself as a unflinching ally of Israel and who moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv in 2018, blamed Mr. Biden for the conflict.

While campaigning on Saturday in Waterloo, Iowa, he said the attacks had occurred because we are perceived as being weak and ineffective, with a really weak leader.

On several occasions, Mr. Trump went further, saying that the hostage deal was a catalyst of the attacks. The war happened for two reasons, he said. The United States is giving and gave to Iran $6 billion over hostages.

In exchange for the release of five Americans held in Tehran, the Biden administration agreed in August to free up $6 billion in frozen Iranian oil revenue funds for humanitarian purposes. The administration has emphasized that the money could be used only for food, medicine, medical equipment that would not have a dual military use.

A senior Biden administration official responded to the comments by Mr. Trump as well as to criticism by other Republican candidates by calling them total lies and accusing the politicians of having either a complete misunderstanding of the facts or of participating willingly in a complete mischaracterization and disinformation of facts.

Another Biden administration official, Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said in a statement, These funds have absolutely nothing to do with the horrific attacks today, and this is not the time to spread disinformation.

Mr. Trump, the G.O.P. front-runner, was not alone in assailing Mr. Biden, as the entire Republican field weighed in on the attacks on Saturday.

In a video posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida faulted the Biden administration for its foreign policy decisions in the Middle East.

Iran has helped fund this war against Israel, and Joe Bidens policies that have gone easy on Iran has helped to fill their coffers, he said. Israel is now paying the price for those policies.

In a statement issued through the White House, Mr. Biden pledged solidarity with Israel and said that he had spoken with Benjamin Netanyahu, the countrys prime minister.

The United States unequivocally condemns this appalling assault against Israel by Hamas terrorists from Gaza, and I made clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that we stand ready to offer all appropriate means of support to the Government and people of Israel, Mr. Biden said.

Yet while the G.O.P. candidates rallied around Israel on Saturday, there is a divide in the party between foreign policy hawks and those who favor a more isolationist approach.

In addition to criticizing Mr. Biden on Saturday, former Vice President Mike Pence had harsh words for fellow Republicans who prefer a more hands-off approach to conflicts abroad.

This is what happens when @POTUS projects weakness on the world stage, kowtows to the mullahs in Iran with a $6 Billion ransom, and leaders in the Republican Party signal American retreat as Leader of the Free World, Mr. Pence wrote on X. Weakness arouses evil.

Other Republican candidates, including Nikki Haley, who was an ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Trump, and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina denounced the attacks as acts of terrorism.

Make no mistake: Hamas is a bloodthirsty terrorist organization backed by Iran and determined to kill as many innocent lives as possible, Ms. Haley said in a statement.

Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey echoed the criticism of his Republican rivals in a social media post, calling the release of $6 billion by the Biden administration to Iran idiotic. Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota and Mr. Hutchinson similarly sought to connect the attack with the release of humanitarian funds for Iran.

Vivek Ramaswamy, the biotech entrepreneur, called the attacks barbaric and medieval in a post on X.

Shooting civilians and kidnapping children are war crimes, he wrote. Israels right to exist & defend itself should never be doubted and Iran-backed Hamas & Hezbollah cannot be allowed to prevail.

Michael Gold contributed reporting from Waterloo, Iowa, and Nicholas Nehamas from Keosauqua, Iowa.

Read more here:
Trump and Other GOP Candidates Use Israel-Gaza to Criticize Biden - The New York Times

A short window is all we need in the House to reinstate Kevin McCarthy and change the rule, Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) told POLITICO.

Duarte also said he thought the Biden administrations positions and our disarray in the House, were factors in the timing of the attacks.

Israel attacks have moderates holding out for the one person who can truly unite us: Kevin McCarthy, according to a third House GOP lawmaker.

McCarthy is aware and grateful of the growing effort to reinstate him, but hes not engaging at this point, this lawmaker added.

The attempt to reinstall McCarthy faces long odds. Two strong candidates are running active campaigns with only days to go before voting, and many dozens of Republicans have already made endorsements. There is little reason to think the basic math for McCarthy has changed for McCarthy since last Tuesday.

Republicans behind the push, however, believe the urgency to address the terror attacks and aid Israel could pressure the eight House Republicans who voted against McCarthy earlier this week to switch their stance. The third House GOP lawmaker said the members behind the push are still livid at the Republicans who voted against McCarthy, a staunch Israel supporter, and are using this moment to show how wrong they were.

McCarthy played an active role in the House GOP response to the attacks Saturday, railing against the Biden administrations actions and noting the House is currently unable to move major legislation without a speaker.

There is nothing the House can do until they elect a speaker, and I dont know if that happens quickly, McCarthy told Fox News.

Lawmakers are also are looking into outlining more clear powers for acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry in the short-term or possibly by electing him speaker outright.

The House could take other actions to get around McHenrys restrained role, including voting him in as a speaker pro tempore, thus shedding his acting title to give him more authority while Republicans figure out who they want to lead them. If McHenry attempts to act, on Israel legislation or any other, without broader authority from the House, he risks being challenged on the floor and votes to overturn his actions.

The push for McCarthy or McHenry are more palatable options for many vulnerable Republicans, especially those in Biden districts, who are not closely aligned with either of the current candidates Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

A major complicating factor is that both Democrats and Republicans in the House have made clear that they are interpreting McHenrys role in its narrowest form, which at this point would limit him from bringing legislation to the floor before a speaker is elected.

There is no precedent for how broadly McHenry can exert powers within the House, and that has driven some Republicans to explore other paths to move legislation to bolster Israel in the coming days or weeks.

Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) said Saturday that she will introduce legislation to supplement funding for Israels Iron Dome missile defense system and is urging Republicans and Democrats to quickly bring this bill to the floor.

Our disunity in Capitol Hill is weakening Americas position as a global leader and hindering our ability to respond to atrocities committed by Hamas on the Israeli people, Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.) said Saturday. We must stop these political games and show leadership during this international emergency.

But that as seen in January is not a swift process. House Republicans are expected to host a candidate forum on Tuesday and hold a closed door, secret ballot internal election on Wednesday. With neither candidate close to the 218 votes needed to clinch the gavel, it is not yet clear when it could reach the floor for a final vote.

Other House Republicans have called for McHenry and House GOP conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to move up the speaker election thats slated to begin next Wednesday.

We need to have a forum Sunday or Monday, Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.) posted on X Saturday.

We are paralyzed as a body, Alford added. World events dictate urgency.

Read more:
Some Republicans making bid to bring back McCarthy to move on aid to Israel - POLITICO - POLITICO

WASHINGTON To Rep. Mike Collins, China is a bigger threat to the United States than Russia. So the Georgia Republican has voted against providing military aid to Ukraine as he advocates for doing more to arm Taiwan, the self-governed island thats at risk of military aggression from Beijing.

For Collins and other Republican lawmakers, Taiwan and Ukraine are effectively rivals for a limited pool of U.S. military assistance. But thats not necessarily how Taiwan and many of its supporters see it. They view Taiwans fate as closely linked to that of Ukraine as it struggles to push back a Russian invasion.

They say China is watching closely to see if the United States has the political stamina to support an ally in a prolonged, costly war. The U.S. aid to Ukraine also has led to weapons manufacturers stepping up production something that could benefit Taiwan in a clash with China.

Read More: Taiwan's Civilian Soldiers, Watching Ukraine, Worry They Aren't Prepared to Defend Their Island

Ukraines survival is Taiwans survival. Ukraines success is Taiwans success, Taiwans diplomat in the U.S., Hsiao Bi-Khim, said in May at the Sedona Forum hosted by the McCain Institute.

Still, Taiwan has been careful not to weigh in on the U.S. debate about continued funding for Ukraine, which has become a divisive political issue after initially having strong bipartisan support.

Asked about Congress removing Ukraine funding from a temporary spending measure that prevented a U.S. government shutdown on Oct. 1, Taiwans diplomatic office responded with discretion.

Taiwan is grateful to have strong bipartisan support from the U.S. We will continue to work with the U.S. to maintain the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office said in a statement emailed to The Associated Press.

But Congress refusal to include the aid raises alarm bells in Taiwan. said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund. She noted that the Taiwanese government has argued that Ukraines victory is existential for Taiwan.,

These worries exist even though most Republicans who seek to end U.S. support for Ukraine are still very pro-Taiwan and willing to do more to help defend Taiwan, she said.

Taiwan is the thorniest issue in the frayed U.S.-China relationship. Beijing claims sovereignty over the island, which lies roughly 100 miles (160 kilometers) off the mainlands southeastern coast, and vows to seize it, by force if necessary, to achieve national reunification. The United States wants a peaceful resolution and has a security pact with the island, supplying it with military hardware and technologies to prevent any forced takeover by Beijing.

Read More: Both Wary of War, Taiwans Voters Eye China and China Eyes Taiwans Voters

China's military actions near the island have fueled concerns over armed attacks. President Joe Biden has said he would send troops to defend Taiwan in case of war, while Chinese President Xi Jinping has demanded the U.S. respect his country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Collins traveled to Taiwan on his first overseas trip as a congressman. When he returned, he called for timely weapon deliveries to the island, especially since as much as $19 billion worth of weapons sold to Taiwan have been delayed.

These delays are primarily a result of a U.S. manufacturing backlog and a distracted Biden administration with weapons deliveries to Ukraine taking preference over Taiwan, Collin said. We must get serious about offering support to our ally Taiwan because ultimately when it comes to countering China, our interests align.

Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center of Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, disagrees with that logic.

It's not a zero-sum game, he said. Taiwan supports the U.S. aid to Ukraine. They understand that the deterrence message works.

And on a practical level, Bowman said, the aid for Ukraine is helping the U.S. expand its weapons production, which will both benefit Taiwan and enhance U.S. military readiness.

Read More: China Plays Long Game With Softer Response to Taiwan President Visiting U.S.

Rep. Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican who in April led a congressional delegation to Taiwan as chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said support for the island has not diminished on the Hill.

Throughout the conversations about aid to Ukraine, I have not heard a single person take a swipe at Taiwan," McCaul said at a recent National Day celebration hosted by Taiwans representative office in Washington.

Glaser said the Chinese leadership is unlikely to discount the U.S. support for Taiwan, even when U.S. support for Ukraine is waning, but it is likely to exploit any failure to fund Ukraine in a disinformation campaign to sow doubts among the Taiwanese people about the U.S. commitment to their defense.

In a social media post, Hu Xijin, a retired chief editor of the Communist Party-run Global Times newspaper and now a political commentator, said this month that most U.S. overseas military interventions have rotted if the U.S. fails to cinch a rapid victory.

Read more here:
Some Republicans Want Less Aid for Ukraine and More for TaiwanBut Taiwan Doesn't - TIME

If youre new to Utah, be prepared to be struck by two things: Its magnificent redrock and its equally red political landscape.

Im Robert Gehrke, a political columnist for The Salt Lake Tribune. Ive covered government and elections in this state for more than 25 years and Im going to help get you oriented, and hopefully understand, some of the forces that shape Utah politics.

Buckle up.

Well start our journey looking at a fairly broad measurement:

According to data published by the state in May, 52.4% of voters are registered Republicans, 13.8% are Democrats, 28.2% are unaffiliated and the remaining 5.6% belong to a third party.

That level of GOP registration is the highest it has been since at least 2014, and over that same span the unaffiliated registration has trended downward. Democratic registration trended slowly upward until 2021 and has dipped slightly since.

Part of that may be because some number of Democrats and unaffiliated voters (we dont know for sure how many) have aligned with the GOP so they can vote in the partys primary elections. Republicans in Utah have closed primaries meaning you have to be registered with the party to vote, and for many seats those primaries are the most consequential elections.

We should also note that, while nearly three out of 10 voters dont ascribe to either major party, when Y2 Analytics pressed these independent voters after the 2022 on which party they are most in tune with, 53% said it was the Republican Party and 38% said Democrat. So the GOP seems to have an advantage, even among those independent voters.

Members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints werent always die-hard Republicans, but since the 1960s they have become one of the most reliable GOP voter blocs in the country.

Whole books could be written (and have been) about the evolution, but to oversimplify it, Republican allegiance grew largely out of cultural divides civil rights, abortion, Equal Rights Amendment, same-sex marriage and so forth.

In the 2020 election, 62% of LDS voters supported Donald Trump according to Y2 Analytics post-election poll, which is only marginally higher than the 58% that Trump finished with. But among active LDS members, support was even stronger, with 71% saying they had voted for Trump.

Roughly the same margin translated into the race for governor that year, with Spencer Cox receiving 72% of the vote among active LDS, compared to 63% of the vote he received among all voters.

According to the most recent U.S. Religion Census a major nationwide survey of faiths the percentage of Utahns who are LDS has fallen slightly from 72% in 1990 to 65% in 2020, that massive voting bloc is still a decided advantage for Utah Republicans.

And in June, the LDS Church warned its members against straight-ticket voting, saying that blindly casting a ballot for one political party without weighing individual candidates and their position on important issues is a threat to democracy and inconsistent with the faiths teachings.

As you can guess, the simple math in Utah has made it almost impossible for a Democrat to win a statewide race. The last to do so was Jan Graham, who was elected attorney general in 1996. Scott Matheson won as governor in 1980, and Frank Moss, in 1970, was the last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate. Lyndon Johnsons win in 1964 was the last time a Democratic presidential candidate won the state.

From 2000 to 2020, we have had six presidential races twice with a GOP incumbent, twice with a Democrat and twice it was an open seat. Over the course of those elections, the Republican candidate prevailed by an average margin of 63% to 29%.

That 34% disadvantage which might have been higher if independent candidate Evan McMullin hadnt received 21.5% in 2016 is a decent approximation of the hole every Democrat who runs statewide is staring up from.

So weve established that the state is somewhere between two-thirds and 70% Republican or GOP-leaning. But there are pockets that are less staunchly conservative.

In the last six presidential elections, there are three counties that have been won by Democrats Summit, Salt Lake and Grand. That said, Mitt Romney won all three when he was the GOP presidential nominee and Trump won Grand in 2016, so theyre a light shade of blue bordering on purple.

Theres also a distinct urban-rural divide in the state. Utah has five counties that we might consider urban Utah, Salt Lake, Davis, Weber and Washington.

Taken together, those five counties went Republican in the last four presidential elections by an average margin of 35%, so better than two-to-one. Pretty dang red. Thats nothing, though, compared to the rural neighbors that backed Republican nominees by a margin of 52%, or a three-to one margin.

Based, again, on the last four presidential contests, the five most Republican counties are:

5. Millard (+71.1% R margin)

4. Sevier (+72.4% R margin)

3. Uintah (+73.7% R margin)

2. Duchesne (+74.1% R margin)

1. Piute (+75% R margin)

And here are the five most Democratic counties (or at least the least Republican ones):

5. Weber (29% R advantage)

4. San Juan (9.9% R advantage)

3. Salt Lake (Even)

2. Grand (2% D advantage)

1. Summit (11.3% D advantage)

But isnt Salt Lake County blue? Well, because when Romney won the county in 2012 by 20 points, the numbers are a bit skewed. Take that one race out and Salt Lake leans Democratic by 6.7%.

Read more:
Republicans rule in Utah. But how red is the Beehive State? - Salt Lake Tribune