Mediaboss Marketing

The reality, Norris wrote, is:

Since the early 1980s, on issue after issue from abortion; secular values; civil rights; racial, homosexual and gender equality; gun control; cosmopolitanism; and environmentalism the pool of social conservatives adopting traditional views on these moral and social identity issues has been shrinking in size within the U.S. national electorate, from majority to minority status. They are running down an up escalator.

With their backs to the wall, Norris argued, conservatives have capitalized on

institutional features of U.S. elections that allow Republicans to seek to dismantle checks on executive power including the extreme decentralization of electoral administration to partisan officials with minimal federal regulation, partisan gerrymandering of districts, overrepresentation of rural states in the U.S. Senate and Electoral College, partisan appointments in the judiciary, primary elections rallying the faithful in the base but excluding the less mobilized moderate independents, the role of money from rich donors in elections and campaigns and so on and so forth. The Trump presidency exacerbated these developments, but their roots are far deeper and more enduring.

Nicholas Stephanopoulos, a law professor at Harvard, noted in an email that state policy outcomes are becoming more bimodal liberal or conservative, rather than centrist than in previous eras and that the misalignment between public policy and public opinion is pervasive in modern American politics, particularly in red states where public policy is far more extreme and conservative than the public wants.

In theory, the hostility of average voters to extreme issue stances can pressure politicians to move toward the center, Stephanopoulos contended, but this aligning impact of general elections can be reduced through tactics like gerrymandering, which make it unlikely that even large swings in public opinion will much alter the composition of the legislature.

In addition, in Stephanopouloss view, in a highly polarized era, the pressure to moderate in order to win general elections faces growing counterpressure to take immoderate positions in order to win primaries:

Theres little that could persuade many voters to ever support the other side. And while general elections might be aligning, theyre pitted against many misaligning forces: the views of activists and donors, the need to win the primary election to be re-elected, pressure from legislative leadership, politicians own often extreme ideologies and so on. Its no surprise that the misaligning forces are often stronger.

Bruce Cain, a political scientist at Stanford, made the argument by email that given the clustering of communities along political, cultural and social lines in the United States presently and the dispersion of powers in American federalism, we should expect our state and local laboratories to yield a wide dispersion of products, especially when they are given more freedom to experiment.

So why dont all states converge on the national median, as revealed by the polls? Cain asked and answered that there are real public opinion differences across states and local communities, especially on hot-button social issues.

Ultimately, Cain continued, if elected officials and judges get too far out of alignment with voters, they will get the message in the form of surprising electoral outcomes, as recently occurred in Wisconsin. Democrats in the 70s and 80s experienced the same on busing, crime and welfare.

See the article here:
Opinion | The Republican Strategists Who Have Carefully Planned All of This - The New York Times

The only thing red in our district is our sun burns, said state Sen. Alexis Calatayud, a Miami-area Republican who voted against the abortion bill last week when the full Senate approved it.

Calatayud said she voted against the measure because thousands of her constituents in the blue stronghold of Miami dont support such a restrictive law. Despite being a Republican, shes still beholden to the will of the voters.

Republicans hold supermajorities in the Florida Legislature, so the few GOP lawmakers who reject the measure have no power to stop or even slow its passage. But their opposition shows how abortion remains a tough issue for the party, especially after Republicans nationally underperformed in the 2022 midterms in part because the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade energized Democratic and swing voters.

That dynamic was much different in Florida, however, Republicans picked up seven new GOP members in the state House and four in the Senate. DeSantis also won the state by historic margins, even in traditionally Democratic areas like Miami.

When Florida lawmakers last year passed a 15-week ban on abortions that offers no exceptions for victims of rape and incest, only one Republican, state Rep. Rene Coach P Plasencia of Orlando, voted against it. He later resigned a few months before he was term-limited out of office.

House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell (D-Tampa) said the difference this year is that more Republicans are realizing the consequences of the six-week ban, which does have exceptions for victims of rape, incest and human trafficking up to 15 weeks of pregnancy.

They know and understand, like we do, that at six weeks most women dont even know theyre pregnant, Driskell said. This is effectively an outright ban.

At least 12 other states have enacted six-week bans, including neighboring Georgia. The Florida bill, once DeSantis signs it into law, will effectively end the states reputation as a safe haven for people seeking abortions in the South. Since the Supreme Court struck down Roe last year, at least 4,000 people have traveled to Florida to get abortions from as far away as Texas and Alabama, where abortion is prohibited at any stage of pregnancy.

In addition to its exceptions, the six-week ban includes a provision that would give $5 million to the state Department of Health for programs that promote causes such as contraception, and $15 million for programs that support mothers who give birth.

Republican state Rep. Mike Caruso of Delray Beach told POLITICO he will vote no Thursday on the six-week ban, while GOP Rep. Traci Koster of Tampa previously rejected the bill during a March committee vote. She did not respond to requests for comment this week.

I dont think the bill takes into consideration certain religious rights, Caruso said on Wednesday. And based on that, and some other things, Im going to be down on the bill.

Several faith-based groups filed legal challenges last year against the states 15-week abortion ban, arguing that it violates the constitutional right to freedom of speech and religion, among other things.

I do not like this bill, Caruso said.

The Republicans who vote against it, however, are unlikely to face any blowback from their caucus. The vast majority of the 84 House Republicans are expected to vote for the six-week ban, and Florida GOP Speaker Paul Renner told reporters on Wednesday that some Republicans in Democratic districts must still represent their constituents.

We have members who will likely not be able to support the bill because they are a good representative of their district. And thats not where their district is. Renner said. We respect those differences in our caucus.

See more here:
DeSantis wants a 6-week abortion ban. These Republicans say no. - POLITICO

Data:Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) office and Ballotpedia; Note: Districts where there was no opponent in the 2022 midterm election are not included; Chart: Alice Feng/Axios

Nine of the top 10 wealthiest congressional districts are represented by Democrats, while Republicans now represent most of the poorer half of the country, according to median income data provided by Rep. Marcy Kaptur's (D-Ohio) office.

Why it matters: The last several decades have ushered in a dramatic political realignment, as the GOP has broadened its appeal to a more diverse working class and Democrats have become the party of wealthier, more-educated voters.

By the numbers: 64% of congressional districts with median incomes below the national median are now represented by Republicans a shift in historical party demographics, the data shows.

Zoom in: Democrats are still competitive and have held on to a number of swingy, middle-income districts, including Kaptur's in Ohio. She is one of only five House Democrats representing districts won by former President Trump.

Between the lines: The relationship between geography, education, income and politics is complex and experts point to education as a stronger indicator of party affiliation.

The big picture: Class politics has become a driving force in the past several elections, supercharged by Donald Trump's populist plea to middle-class, blue collar workers in 2016.

What they're saying: While House Democrats expanded broadband internet, capped the cost of insulin, and cut child poverty in half, Republicans did everything they could to stop them from helping middle- and working-class families," DCCC spokesperson Tommy Garcia told Axios, criticizing Republicans aims to cut federal spending.

See the original post here:
Dramatic realignment swings working-class districts toward GOP - Axios

Since House Republicans first won their narrow majority in the midterm elections, Ive been stressing that their far-right members will be the biggest hindrance to Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and his ability to govern as speaker. I can now say that I was myopic. While McCarthys inability or unwillingness to rebuff the far right is an ongoing problem, it wont be the sole reason his speakership eventually collapses.

As it turns out, McCarthy is also just as bad at managing everyone else in his caucus, including the members of his own leadership team. And if he cant get everyone on the same page, and fast, the global economy stands to be the biggest loser of the GOP power struggle.

The current drama is that Republicans have yet to agree on a budget. President Joe Biden, well aware of the divisions among the GOP on this matter, has said he wont negotiate with Republicans over raising the debt ceiling until he can see their full budget plan. And, according to The New York Times, McCarthy has no confidence in Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, the chair of the Budget Committee.

But apparently, thats not the extent of McCarthys beef with Arrington. During the drawn-out struggle for the speakers gavel in January, Arrington reportedly floated the name of Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La. That trial balloon went nowhere, not least because Scalise the House majority leader, who has long been McCarthys No. 2 reportedly discouraged members from floating his name as an alternative.

As for budget negotiations, Arrington told reporters last month that the GOP was readying a term sheet with its conditions for raising the debt ceiling. McCarthy told reporters, I dont know what hes talking about. Convinced Arrington cant pull together a budget, McCarthy regards him as incompetent, the Times reported.

Ouch.

Scalise, meanwhile, isnt exactly one of McCarthys favorite people right now. According to the Times, late last month he reportedly gave the rest of leadership assurances that the Parents Bill of Rights was on course for easy passage. But in the end, five Republicans voted against it which would have been enough to tank it if some Democrats hadnt been absent. And Republicans meant that bill to be one of the major parts of their agenda.

Beneath the obvious Mean Girls atmosphere in the Capitol, several bits of intrigue are playing out. Theres a certain irony in Arringtons disenfranchisement. Since the Republican Revolution in 1994, the House GOP has often chafed at the centralization of power in the hands of the speaker. One of the proposed solutions has been to devolve power back to the committees, whose chairs used to rule over them as their personal fiefdoms.

McCarthys response hasnt been empowering chairs like Arrington, though, even as he has made himself more vulnerable to being ousted as the price for his gavel. Instead, McCarthy has tapped Rep. Garret Graves, R-La., to be the point person on the debt ceiling negotiations. Its also a weird choice, one most likely based more on McCarthys personal loyalty than on any particular skill Graves brings to the table. Its unlikely to win him any points among the rest of the rank and file, nor is the perception that he's trying to find someone else to catch the blame for the failure to produce a budget.

Meanwhile, theres a rich tradition in Congress of rivalry between the top-ranked members in a caucus (see: Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., vs. Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md.). One senior House GOP aide told NBC News that they were surprised to see the tensions spilling out into the open. But its no secret Scalise and McCarthys teams have always kinda been at odds, the aide said.

Its less surprising that Scalise hasnt made obvious plays for the gavel. Everything Ive ever heard or read about him portrays him as affable and well-liked by his colleagues, including those across the aisle. Thats the kind of reputation one doesnt toss aside casually with ill-timed schemes. And whatever the reason for his false confidence ahead of the vote on the Parents Bill of Rights, his previous role as minority whip must mean he knows he doesnt have the support to take out his boss yet. No, it makes much more sense for Scalise to simply bide his time as the pressure on McCarthy most likely increases over the coming weeks. Theres a dwindling window for McCarthy to right the ship and Im not sure he should count on First Mate Scalise to back him in event of mutiny.

House Democrats probably have a good bit of schadenfreude about this ongoing mess. The internal strife at the top has left the Republican agenda moving in slow motion over these first almost 100 days. On some of the things youd think would be priorities, such as immigration, the GOPs disarray has kept off the floor bills that would force Democrats to take votes that could be used in political attacks.

McCarthys lack of skill at moving his caucus forward could otherwise be seen as the feel-good event of the spring except theres the looming debt ceiling crisis. Because while his ineffectiveness in most policy areas is a benefit for the Americans who would be most affected by the draconian cuts the GOP is pushing, a failure to lift the debt ceiling would have repercussions for us all.

Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for MSNBC Daily.

Follow this link:
How Speaker Kevin McCarthy is alienating House Republicans - MSNBC

House Republicans are in a fix. They had a simple, devious plan: take the debt limit hostage, and institute massive changes to the federal budget. But they cannot agree on either the list of demands for the former, or the specific budget changes they want for the latter. The New York Times reports that, with deadlines approaching, the party caucus cant even decide on whether or not to balance the budget, much less the specific ways to get there. The newest demand is that the country be put on a path towards a balanced budget, an approximately meaningless phrase. Axios reports that this has strengthened Democrats decision to play hardball: demanding a clean debt limit increase and no negotiations on the budget until Republicans can present their own offer.

Thats Republicans for youequal parts wildly extreme and so chaotically stupid that they cant even decide what extreme thing to do. We should expect nothing less from this party.

One aspect of this story is the utter intellectual debasement of the conservative movement. Its policy apparatus used to be dominated by Ayn Rand acolytes like former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, who advanced a nakedly plutocratic agenda of welfare and social insurance cuts, deregulation, and tax cuts for the rich. His plans as written relied on ludicrous magic asterisk assumptions to get acceptable budget numbers. But at least there was a discernible program there: hand money to the rich by cutting social programs and blowing up the deficit.

More from Ryan Cooper

Donald Trump proved there was basically no organic appetite for this agenda in the conservative base, when he won the 2016 Republican primary promising to protect Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Ryan eventually snuck out of town.

While in office, Trump allowed his staffers to propose massive welfare cuts, and actually did pass giant tax cuts for the rich, because he paid almost no attention to policy details. And one does still hear Randian notions from some GOP members of Congress. But much of the rest of the party is clearly not that keen on the old program anymore, particularly regarding Medicare and Social Security. Cutting those programs is nightmarishly unpopular, particularly with the base of seniors at whom the GOP targets their nostalgic MAGA messages. More importantly, Trump has returned to his old stance in his primary campaign against Ron DeSantis, who was a die-hard welfare cutter when he served in the House. Trump still rules the GOP, and the rest of the party is loath to cross him.

More importantly still, a large and growing swath of Republicans simply do not know or care about budget details. National conservative attention revolves around people like Reps. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), Lauren Boebert (R-CO), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA)loud, incurious idiots who say paint-blisteringly extreme things to get attention, typically accusing Democrats of imagined heinous crimes. Greene in particularwho was previously best known for filming herself chasing after a school shooting survivor shouting delirious conspiracy nonsense and threats at himis virtually a shadow Speaker of the House now.

A large and growing swath of Republicans simply do not know or care about budget details.

Many up-and-coming Republicans plainly now view national office as a springboard to stardom in right-wing mediathe Congress-to-podcast circuit, as it were. Former Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), who spent most of his staff money on comms rather than policy, was only a few steps ahead of the trend. (It seems he was also ahead of the curve with his alarming fixation on Nazi memorabilia, given the reporting about Republican megadonor Harlan Crows collection of Hitler possessions.)

So for the extreme right that dictated terms to McCarthy so he could become Speaker, the budget and the debt limit are almost entirely performative identity signifiers. They do want enormous spending cuts, because thats the most conservative thing to do (read: its the opposite of what Democrats want). But they are basically indifferent to the detailed implications. So if cutting Social Security and Medicare is off-limits, as well as the military and the Trump tax cuts, the Republican far right naturally assumes theyll balance the budget by cuts elsewhere.

The problem is that, as the Congressional Budget Office pointed out in March with an air of palpable exhaustion, it would be impossible to achieve that even if the GOP zeroed out every single other program in the entire federal government.

All this stuff is just so boring on the right. Fussy details about the actual size of government programs and agencies or the duties of holding federal office or elementary arithmetic are for blue-haired social justice warrior communists. Passing a responsible budget or not defaulting on the national debt doesnt get you on Fox News or boost your podcast subscriptions. Indeed, it might hurt those things if an opportunistic pundit or politician decides to denounce you as a RINO for doing whats right for the country. The conservative movement is on to harder stuff now, chasing the dragon of boycotting Bud Light, book and abortion bans, vicious transphobia, kicking Black people out of the state legislature for speaking out of turn, and pardoning a convicted murderer if his victim was liberal. Annoying technical responsibilities just dont make for compelling television that can produce conservatives favorite emotional state, namely fits of apoplexy.

So instead of ironing out some compromise deal, thus far conservatives have reacted to the impossibility of their set of priorities by bitter infighting and mutual recriminations. McCarthy reportedly is deeply distrustful of both his lieutenant House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), because the extreme right tried to get him instead of McCarthy into the Speakers chair, and Budget Committee chair Jodey C. Arrington (R-TX), because he is incompetent and kept going to reporters with plans that didnt have McCarthys backing.

It turns out to be quite difficult to operate a political party made up of 75 percent crack-brained yahoo attention hounds, whose voters are egged on by a media apparatus that has trained its audience to demand the impossible and punish the sell-outs who cant deliver, in the words of Alex Pareene.

As a closing comment, readers might be surprised to learn that these kinds of high-stakes battles over the debt limit and the budget werent a thing for most of American history. The debt limit only dates back to 1917, and nobody even thought to take it hostage for decades. When the possibility did arise, the Gephardt rule ensured for many years that when the House passed a budget, it also automatically raised the debt ceiling as necessarylike how a functioning country would do it.

On the budget side, before 1980 there was no such thing as a government shutdown. If Congress failed to pass a budget, then all the agencies and programs kept on operating on their status quo track, with the assumption that sooner or later the legislature would get around to it and authorize the required funding. But in 1980, Jimmy Carters attorney general Benjamin Civiletti, with the cramped, hyper-literalist, and politically idiotic style of reasoning that is so characteristic of the elite liberal legal establishment, issued an opinion declaring it illegal to continue operating the government without a budget.

Both of these things can and should be resurrected. The debt ceiling ought to be abolished, either through Congress or Joe Biden declaring it unconstitutional. Attorney General Merrick Garland ought to return to the previous interpretation of budget laws, and Democrats in Congress should reinforce it as soon as possible. The fewer policy grenades Republicans have in their arsenal, the better.

Visit link:
Republicans' Self-Inflicted Budget Impasse - The American Prospect