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A simple dollars-to-dollars comparison likely understates the hole some Republican candidates find themselves in. Generally, candidates can buy television ads at a cheaper rate than outside groups so a dollar from a candidate effectively buys more eyeballs than a dollar from an ad buy backed by a super PAC or a national party committee.

I heard a rumor that campaigns need money to run ads. I dont know if that rumor is true, but if it is then we have the reason why Kari Lake isnt up on TV, said Barrett Marson, an Arizona Republican operative who worked for a super PAC supporting one of Lakes primary opponents and who has been critical of the electability of the statewide GOP ticket.

There has been a dearth of advertising on the Republican side of this race, Marson continued. About the only message TV viewers really get of Kari Lake is her own earned media interviews, which often are not positive.

Lake herself has downplayed the importance of ads as a cornerstone of a successful campaign. She told POLITICO in a recent interview that she was not a huge believer in running TV ads, cutting them off at the end of a contentious primary in which her opponent was outspending her 17-to-1 and then winning the nomination anyway.

I think Im a unique candidate in that I didnt need to run as much advertising to let people know who I am, because they already knew who I was, Lake said in the interview.

She has, however, gotten significant air cover in the state from the RGA for the final weeks of the election, which Marson notes could be a difference maker in a close campaign. The RGA has also sidestepped dealing with the state party, routing millions of dollars worth of spending through the Yuma County Republican Party. That allows the county party to coordinate with the Lake campaign and critically, get a lower ad rate.

While theres a big gap in spending in Arizona, theres little separating Lake and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Katie Hobbs in public polling. Polling averages show them separated by less than a point, and POLITICO forecasts the race as a tossup.

The same, however, can not be said for Mastriano in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Josh Shapiro has clobbered him on the airwaves for months largely without a response, as Shapiro ran up a fairly comfortable lead in recent polls.

Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano stands after concluding his speech during a campaign stop in Erie, Pa. on Sept. 29, 2022.|David Dermer/AP Photo

Mastriano has largely been abandoned by national Republicans his campaign adviser even tried to pick a fight with the RGA for not backing him and an in-state group that was running ads attacking Shapiro apparently cut bait in September.

Mastriano, did, however, launch his first TV ad of the general election last week, in what his campaign called a million-dollar buy skipping most of the far-right talking points he regularly espouses on the trail or in interviews and instead focusing on his military service.

Still, hes being dramatically outspent, in no small part due to Shapiros significant fundraising advantage.

Mastriano didnt have to run a lot of TV in the primary, and Josh Shapiro has had more than $20 million [on air] and Mastriano has had nothing, said Chris Nicholas, a veteran GOP consultant in the state. Through the end of the election, Shapiros total is expected to be even higher: at least $35 million since he launched his campaign.

Even so, Nicholas noted that a spending gap of that size normally means a race is over but that was not the case this year. For Mastriano, running TV ads no matter when you start to do it is a positive, even if it is belated, he said.

Dixon, the Michigan gubernatorial candidate, is also not on television herself, and she has been trailing significantly in recent polls. Instead, her campaign has largely relied on an allied super PAC called Michigan Families United, which was the only Republican entity on air for the month of September.

She has relied on the group to a heavy degree, both in the primary and in the general election. Dixons site at one point contained an unusually extensive memo, which was shared with POLITICO, entitled television, radio, and digital advertising. It laid out specific ad themes that would be helpful for the campaign. Her website also currently links to a Google Drive folder that has over an hour of b-roll footage, which is useful for outside ad makers.

Read more:
Republicans are chasing key governorships. There's one big thing missing. - POLITICO

This is a rush transcript of "The Five" on October 12, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

JESSE WATTERS, FOX NEWS HOST: Hello, everybody. I'm Jesse Watters, along with Judge Jeanine Pirro, Harold Ford, Jr., Dana Perino, and Greg Gutfeld. It's five o'clock in New York City and this is THE FIVE.

President Biden losing touch with reality with just 27 days to go until the midterms. After decimating American energy, letting inflation ramp up to record highs, allowing a historic flow of migrants to cross the border and unleashing a violent crime surge under his watch. Biden is delusional enough to think America loves what he's doing.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Look what I've gotten done. Name me a president in recent history has gotten as much done as I have in the first two years. Not a joke. You may not like what I got done, but the vast majority of American people do like what I got done. And so, I just, it's, it's a matter of can you do the job? And I believe I can do the job. I've been able to do the job. I've got more done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATTERS: Not a joke. If Biden thinks he's so great, why are so many vulnerable Democrats afraid to be seen in public with the guy. And get this. Biden actually thinks the Republican Party has nothing to campaign on.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: What's the Republican platform to run? What are they running on? What are they for? The first thing they said they're going to do is get rid of the Inflation Reduction Act. And so, what's that do? They're going to raise drug prices, raise medical costs again, be sure that we're going to no longer be able to have the ability to have tax credits for weatherizing your homes, saving money?

JAKE TAPPER, HOST, CNN: Right.

BIDEN: I mean, I don't know what they're for.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATTERS: Even Bernie Sanders is begging Democrats to actually listen to the people who get them elected and focus on top polling issues that voters actually care about. A concept that Democrats just seem not to be able to grasp.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D-VT): I think the Supreme Court's decision was an outrage. It has to be an important issue in this campaign, but it cannot be the only issue. Poll after poll shows what everybody understands to be true. Working people are hurting. They're worried about the economy. They're worried about inflation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATTERS: All right, so Joe Biden comes out and says, everybody loves what I've done. How is that going to play.

HAROLD FORD, JR., FOX NEWS CO-HOST: Well, it's good to be back.

WATTERS: Nah, it's good to be back here.

GREG GUTFELD, FOX NEWS CO-HOST: You can't say you agree with us because you're first.

FORD: I agree. I think I'm going to agree with a lot of where the table is going to go, but I do think, I do think that Biden -- Biden has done some things. I thought the best part of what he said there was, look, you may not agree with everything I've done, but the Inflation Reduction Act had a lot of energy incentives.

We should do more in energy. We should be drilling more here to increase our domestic supply, not only for ourselves, but even for allies around the globe.

The CHIPS Act which is going to allow us to make Javelins here and the conduct -- the semiconductors that go into that. That's a national security issue. Gun reform.

Who would've thought a Democrat with working with the Republicans in the House and the Senate could get a gun reform bill as he's been able to do an infrastructure. Some of the Republicans who voted against the infrastructure bill are now applying for money to have the infrastructure money brought to their district, which I think is a good thing. Even if you didn't vote for it, you ought to be able to help your constituents and help your districts.

Finally, I think he's right in one regard about what the Republicans are for. You look at what Rick Scott has released. He released a plan I think called renewal -- the renewal plan for America that McCarthy has the commitment to America.

When Newt Gingrich did this in '94 they all ran on a contract with America. If you look at some of the differences between the two, one raises taxes, one raises prescription drug prices. So, I do think, you know, Republicans have some explaining to do is you would say preferably in politics and we'll see if they're able to do it.

I think the best thing about all of this is Republicans, whether it's one or two things they're standing for, they at least have a moniker out there. And they have to defend that moniker if that's what they want to do. And Democrats have a moniker.

Where, you're right, Jesse, is that they're not probably half the Democrats want Biden there campaigning with them. They all want him to raise money, but not everyone wants him with them campaigning. We'll see how it works out in the next -- next three or four weeks.

But I know this. This race is tight in the Senate, 50 seats where what Republicans were supposed to win eight, 10 weeks ago. There's no doubt abortion and reproductive rights have narrowed that. I still think Republicans have an advantage in the House, but I think it's a jump ball in the Senate and we'll see what happens.

WATTERS: You know, Harold rattles off a bunch of things. They got passed. I mean, anybody can cook a lot of meals. But if people don't think it tastes very good, then so what?

JEANINE PIRRO, FOX NEWS CO-HOST: You know what it reminds me of when Joe says that everybody loves him? It's like if a -- if a girl breaks up with her boyfriend and she doesn't say anything bad about the boyfriend, you know, but she's broken up with him and she's onto a new guy. But the boyfriend keeps saying she loves me. She loves me. She only says good things about me. She still loves me.

No, she doesn't. She's onto the next guy, but that's like Joe Biden in this country.

WATTERS: Yes.

PIRRO: You know?

FORD: I agree with that.

PIRRO: They're like onto the next guy. But what I think that, I think that Bernie Sanders is smart, but Bernie Sanders always understood, I think the working people. He understands it's about the economy. He's smart enough to tell the Democrats that that's what you have to focus on.

And what the Republicans have to focus on is crime and the border. And every day I just see it and I just say it can't get any worse. It can't get any worse, but every day it does get worse. So, I think that, you know, Joe Biden is I don't think he's going to end up running in 2024, but I also think that the party is running from him more than are sticking with him.

WATTERS: Jeanine and Bernie Sanders both make great points, is that if you have the number one issue --

(CROSSTALK)

FORD: You don't think my --

WATTERS: -- by a mile, which is the economy. The Democrats don't even talk about the economy.

DANA PERINO, FOX NEWS CO-HOST: However, Bernie Sanders not that smart because --

PIRRO: Thanks.

PERINO: -- the bill that they gave, the bill that Biden passed was basically the blueprint from Bernie. And what did that result in? Increased inflation.

WATTERS: You're right. He always gets at of stuff.

PERINO: So, it's like what Bernie Sanders wants to do is to spend more money.

WATTERS: Yes.

PERINO: He wants, I think that's not, that's not very smart.

WATTERS: Good point. I take out what I said about him.

PERINO: Now but he is -- he is smart to be able to say, I'm not -- I'm not Biden, I would be different. You got to do this or that. And he tries to be both things, all things to all people.

WATTERS: Yes.

PERINO: But he's not. We actually know what he really is for, which is not what Americans are for. Biden's presidency is getting a one-star Yelp review, but he's looking at it saying, I'm -- I'm doing great. And I think when he gets his clips, because you used to call them clips, you know, like all the newspaper articles, they give him a folder in the morning.

It seems like they just put all the good stuff. Like the five articles that they can find that make things look really good. However, the other -- the other thing that's happening here is that a midterm election when you have one party rule, that means it's a check on one party rule, and it's a referendum on Biden. It's not a choice between Biden and Trump or whoever else.

So, people are going to say, well, what can the Republicans do? The number one thing the Republicans want to do if they take back the majority, is to stop bad things from happening. That's the number one job, and then they can start to talk about what they are for.

The House, if the Republicans take over, they're going to pass so many bills and Biden is going to ignore them. And you know what happens that night as soon as it's called, who has the majority in the Senate and who has the majority in the House, the first thing that happens is we're onto the 2024 election.

WATTERS: And last night, Greg, he said that he hasn't decided yet whether he's running or not.

GUTFELD: Yes. Well, he didn't know what they were talking about. When he says that Republicans have nothing to run on, he's wrong. They can run on him.

PERINO: Yes.

GUTFELD: And they could run on the Democrats who continued to deny that will claim that crime doesn't exist, that inflation is a mirage and that the border is secure. Their strategy is like a drug addict in an intervention. It's just I'm, well, nothing happening here.

Twenty twenty-two has been like a long exercise in denial. But the big story, one of the two big stories, Biden begged the Saudis not to cut oil production until days before the midterms.

PERINO: Yes.

GUTFELD: And why would he do that? It smells just like, I mean, it's a -- it's almost just like the hiding the laptop. It's like, here's a big problem, let's bury it, hide it, or delay it so it won't hurt us politically.

So, he didn't really care that the Americans were -- Americans were suffering at the gas pump. He just didn't want it to affect the Democrats. That's kind of sleazy. It sounds a lot like bearing the laptop to me.

And lastly, you know what's happening tomorrow is another January 6th hearing. And I dropped my pen.

PERINO: How about that?

GUTFELD: So, in the midst of this economic malaise, crime waves. We've got a war going on. It's like washing your windows as your house is on fire. Why are they doing this? I think that everybody who -- people should just not watch that hearing symbolically to say like, we've had enough of this crap. We've had enough of this circus. We've got real problems here. And none of them are political.

There are actually real personal family economic problems. We don't look at our problems politically the way you do. That's the problem. That's why I think Democrats are better on the outside and Republicans are better on the inside.

Like when the Republicans in power, they actually attack things that Americans want, like crime and like the border. Democrats are really good at attacking Republicans.

WATTERS: Yes, they are.

GUTFELD: So, keep them on the outside. That's the way it goes. It's like - - it's like a nice little.

WATTERS: A lot of analogies there.

GUTFELD: Yes, none of them made sense.

WATTERS: Are you -- are you going to be excited to watch the January 6th hearings tomorrow?

FORD: I probably won't watch them tomorrow, but I do think holding someone accountable for what happened that day is something that should be --

(CROSSTALK)

WATTERS: Do you think doing the January 6th hearings on the same days the inflation number drops, is good or bad politics?

FORD: Probably good politics.

WATTERS: You think it's good politics?

(CROSSTALK)

FORD: I'm going to go --

PERINO: Well, remember it got you late.

FORD: It's probably good school if we do that.

PERINO: They were supposed to -- but remember, Jesse, they were supposed to have this hearing two weeks ago, but then the hurricane happened. And they moved it so that they wouldn't get blown out on coverage.

GUTFELD: Literally.

WATTERS: Blown out. Very well done.

PERINO: Thank you.

WATTERS: A lot of good analogies around the table.

PIRRO: Yes.

WATTERS: Dating.

GUTFELD: Yes.

WATTERS: Yelp reviews.

GUTFELD: That's a great dress, by the way.

WATTERS: It is a great dress. We're going to talk a lot about that dress.

FORD: I agree with that too. That's a great dress.

WATTERS: OK, now she's getting uncomfortable. We're going to move on. Coming up next, Biden's migrant whipping hooks just got more scandalous. Damning new e-mails on what the White House knew before smearing the agents.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FORD: Brand new details surrounding the now infamous whip gate controversy. We saw President Biden and others in administration falsely accusing border patrol agents of whipping Haitian migrants. It turns out it was just horse reins and those agents were later exonerated after an investigation.

But before the White House had all the facts, both President Biden and Vice President Harris were slamming the agents involved.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: To see people treat it like they did horses, really running them over, people being strapped. It's outrageous. I promise you those people will pay.

Link:
'The Five' on Biden's first two years, his claims about Republicans - Fox News

About a month ago, Bill Clinton said Democrats still had a chance to hold on to the House and Senate, but itd be a real challenge. We have to note the Republicans always close well, the former president said. Why? Because they find some new way to scare the living daylights out of swing voters about something.

There is no doubt that this is a key chapter in the GOPs election playbook, and the party follows it faithfully. The thing voters are supposed to be terrified of changes the last time a Democratic president saw a midterm cycle, the scary thing was Ebola, which Republicans promptly forgot about after the 2014 elections but the underlying strategy remains the same.

Headed into the 2022 cycle, the original plan appeared to be scare the living daylights out of swing voters by talking about critical race theory, immigrants, transgender athletes, or transgender athletes who are also immigrants talking about critical race theory. But as The Wall Street Journal reported this week, Republicans have instead settled on a message focused on crime.

Republicans in competitive House and Senate districts are hitting Democrats with a barrage of ads focused on voters increased fears about the surge in violent crime in recent years, with the issue playing a central role in many tight races. Republicans have called Democrats too tolerant of crime after social-justice protests in 2020 swept through the country over policing abuses, and they have criticized some Democrats support of measures such as eliminating cash bail.

If this sounds at all familiar, youve either seen the avalanche of ads, or youve seen some of the recent coverage. NBC News reported last week that Republicans have unleashed a barrage of negative ads in the final weeks of the midterms that hammer Democrats on crime.

The Associated Press added, The issue of crime is dominating advertising in some of the most competitive Senate races, including those in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, along with scores of House and governors campaigns.

The thinking behind the strategy is obvious: Much of the public is concerned about an increase in crime rates a trend that began during the Trump era and since Democrats are currently in office, GOP officials and candidates are telling the public to simply blame the party in power for the fact that many are feeling less safe.

Take some hysteria from conservative media outlets like Fox News, add a hearty dose of defund the police lies from Republicans who know better, and were left with a potent election season message custom-made to scare the living daylights out of swing voters.

Itd be even better if it were fair and accurate, but its not. Lets keep some factual details in mind:

1. The evidence of soaring crime rates is dubious. The latest data from the FBI actually showed a decline in violent crime, and while there are legitimate concerns about the figures being incomplete, there are other recent reports pointing in similar directions.

2. Republicans may need to take a long look in the mirror. As Dana Milbank explained in his latest column:

Earlier this year, the centrist Democratic group Third Way crunched the 2020 homicide figures and found that per capita homicide rates were on average 40 percent higher in states won by Trump than by Joe Biden. Eight of the 10 states with the highest homicide rates have been reliably red states for the past two decades. Republican-led cities werent any safer than Democratic-led cities. Among the 10 states with the highest per capita homicide rates Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, Missouri, South Carolina, New Mexico, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee most were in the South and relatively rural. The findings were broadly consistent with other rankings of states (and counties) by violent crime.

3. The GOP seems awfully selective about its crime-related interests. Many of the Republicans trying to leverage crime as a campaign issue are the same Republicans who appear wholly indifferent to serious crimes such as the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and Donald Trumps alleged felonies. Take Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, for example.

4. If Republicans were serious about crime, theyd have to get serious about guns. And the GOP simply has no intention of doing that.

5. The GOP has a credibility problem on the issue. Only one major political party in recent years has raised the prospect of defunding law enforcement while opposing increased federal funding to local police departments. Ill give you a hint: Its not the Democratic Party.

6. The role of race in this strategy is hardly subtle. Take one look at the kind of ads Republicans have aired in Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race targeting Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who is Black and it becomes painfully obvious that race is playing a key role in the GOPs strategy.

7. Republicans want to highlight crime without proposing real solutions. The House GOPs Commitment to America offered some vague and dishonest platitudes, but voters expecting Republicans to actually address crime rates through meaningful governing solutions are going to be disappointed.

Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MSNBC political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "The Impostors: How Republicans Quit Governing and Seized American Politics."

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The problem(s) with the Republicans election focus on crime - MSNBC

The Republican Partys chances for taking control of the U.S. Senate after Novembers midterm elections are continuing to improve, with betting market PredictIt now favoring the GOP over Democrats.

Republicans reached a 52% chance of winning the Senate on Wednesday and stayed at that mark on Thursday, according to PredictIt data. Thats the highest level since Aug. 1, which was the last time that the GOP was favored. (Note that PredictIt says the sum of all oddscan be higher than 100%, or $1, especially when they have been changing rapidly, because they reflect most recent trades.)

Democrats had been enjoying an edge for more than two months, as shown in the chart below. Analysts had attributed the advantage in large part to Democratic-leaning voters becoming more energized after the Supreme Courts June 24 decision overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion-rights case.

Related:Democrats raise more money than Republicans in 9 out of 10 competitive Senate races, channeling voter energy after Roe overturned

While Democrats have focused on abortion rights in their midterm campaigns, Republicans have seized on raging U.S. inflation. On Thursday, the latest reading for the consumer price index showed high inflation persisting, with so-called core CPI climbing to a new cycle peak. Stocks DJIA, -1.34% dived early Thursday after the reading but then finished sharply higher.

To be sure, other forecasts still suggest Democrats will maintain their grip on the 50-50 Senate, which they currently control only because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tiebreaking votes. FiveThirtyEight currently gives a two-in-three chance for that chamber of Congress staying blue.

Cowen Washington Research Group continues to see the most likely scenario being a Democratic-controlled Senate and a Republican-run House, said Chris Krueger, a Cowen analyst and managing director, in a note this week. But the Senate comes down to a handful of coin-flip races in swing states, he added.

Related: These 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate in 2023

And see: Senate control may not be determined until December. Heres why.

Plus: Sen. Lindsey Grahams corporate donors find themselves linked to his controversial abortion bill. Why everyones playing gotcha with political spending.

The additional charts below showkey Senate races to watch, as well as the performance of each party in a generic congressional ballot.

Read the rest here:
Betting markets now see Republicans winning Senate in midterm elections, as GOP slightly favored for first time in 2 months - MarketWatch

In 2011, the new House Republican majority, egged on by Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy and led by radical Tea Party rightists such as Jason Chaffetz, brought the U.S. to the brink of a default. The disaster was headed off by a last-minute compromise between Speaker John Boehner, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and President Barack Obama. A breach of the debt ceiling, meaning the loss of the full faith and credit of the United States, would have been catastrophic. But Chaffetz and many of his colleagues were more than willing to make that happen. In the aftermath, Chaffetz said, We werent kidding around. We would have taken it down.

As it was, the brinkmanship and delays had severe effects. The Dow fell 2,000 points in the months that followed, and borrowing costs for the federal government increased by an estimated $18.9 billion over 10 years, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Chaffetz is now long gone from the House, but the Tea Party radicalswho a few years later formed the Freedom Caucus because the existing right-wing caucus, the Republican Study Committee, was not right-wing enoughhave moved from the fringe to the center among House Republicans. And if Republicans capture a majority in next months midterm election, they will make the Tea Party group look like milquetoast moderates. The prospect of default, along with extended government shutdowns and disruptions and a hamstrung administration, will loom large.

If there is one timeworn clich about elections, it is that the next one is the most significant in our lifetime. There is reason to believe it is true this time. Although the outcomes remain uncertain, one thing is clear: If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives, the country will face a series of fundamental challenges much greater than we have had in any modern period of divided government, including a direct and palpable threat of default and government shutdown. The Republican majority will be more radical, reckless, and willing to employ nuclear options to achieve its goals than any of its predecessors have been, and its leadership, starting with McCarthy, will be either compliant or too weak to head off catastrophe.

From the November 2022 issue: Bad losers

Primaries in New Hampshire have underscored this threat. MAGA radicals were the big winnersDon Bolduc, slammed by GOP Governor Chris Sununu as a conspiracy-theory extremist, prevailed as the Republican Senate nominee, and Trumpists Karoline Leavitt and Bob Burns carried the nominations for the two House seats. Saying flatly that Trump won in 2020 and calling for scrapping the FBI, these candidates are outside any reasonable definition of the mainstreambut they are the rule, not the exception, in this years Republican primary contests for nomination to both federal and state key offices.

Earlier in the year, Republicans were bullish on a sweeping midterm victory, akin to what they achieved in 2010. Those exuberant expectations have been dampened in recent months, especially in the aftermath of the Supreme Courts Dobbs decision, and some of the extremist candidates face uphill battles to win (for example, the Cook Political Report moved the New Hampshire Senate race and one of those two House races from toss-up to leaning Democrat after the victories of Bolduc and Leavitt.) But after redistricting, and given the range of seats that could change parties, the odds remain reasonably strong that Republicans can still win back the House majority, if only by a slim margin.

When it comes to the House, FiveThirtyEight has found that so far, at minimum 117 House Republicans with at least a 95 percent chance of winning are full-blown election deniers or questioners, a good leading indicator of radicalism and a willingness to ignore facts and embrace fantasy. In turn, they are willing, if not eager, to blow up institutions and government itself to accomplish their goals.

The current members of the Freedom Caucus make up barely a fifth of all House Republicans, but they represent a rogues gallery of bombastic pot stirrers and insurrectionist enablerspeople such as Scott Perry, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs, Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Louie Gohmert, and Mo Brooks. In the 118th Congress, they will make up more of their party in the House. Their goals include impeaching Joe Biden, Merrick Garland, Alejandro Mayorkas, and more; investigating Hunter Biden, Anthony Fauci, and others; but also crippling the FBI and blocking further investigation or prosecution of Trump and his allies, stopping all future Biden policies, and likely fighting for a nationwide ban on abortions, repeal of the Affordable Care Act, tough immigration policies, and more.

One house of Congress can do a lot on its ownincluding investigations, subpoenas of individuals, resolutions of contempt, and impeachment. Of course, the House cannot remove anyone from office without the Senate, and it cannot legislate on its own. But it can block legislation and use its veto power to demand change. No question, the House Republicans will block any legislative initiative from the Biden administration. Worse, though, would be the ways they could employ the power of the purse.

That starts with the debt ceiling. An anachronistic policy necessity, used only by Denmark and the U.S., raising the debt ceiling requires periodic action by Congress to maintain the full faith and credit of the United States; the failure to do so when the ceiling is reached would mean a default. Although both parties have played partisan games with the debt ceiling, they have always made it through, even if we came dangerously close during the Obama presidency. In 2011, McConnell said, I think some of our members may have thought the default issue was a hostage you might take a chance at shooting. Most of us didnt think that. What we did learn is this: Its a hostage worth ransoming.

Edward Geist: Nuclear strategists know how dangerous the debt fight is

McConnell and his House counterpart Boehner did use the debt ceiling threat to get some concessions on spending. The concessions demanded by the new MAGA extremist radicals will be non-negotiable. And this time, if Republicans win, a lot more members will be ready to push us over the cliffand the speaker, McCarthy, with no ability or willingness to stop their juggernaut. Of course, other major disruptions could occur, including government shutdowns and costly investigations. But it is the tangible threat of default that looms largest.

What to do? One thing is clear. If the Republicans prevail in November, the lame-duck session becomes an opportunity to take this threat off the table once and for all. The way to do so is by making permanent, perhaps via reconciliation, the ironically named McConnell Rule. The rule was raised by the Senate Republican leader a decade ago to allow the president to raise the debt ceiling. It allows Congress to pass a joint resolution blocking the action, but contains a provision where the president is able to veto that resolutionmeaning, in this instance, that a president would need only one-third of support plus one of the two houses of Congress to avoid default.

We have moved into a new and frightening era in American politics and governance, one when radicals intent on a revolution and craving major disruption will be not just a vocal minority but potentially dominating a governing body. We cannot risk the full consequences of that brutal reality.

Originally posted here:
What Happens to the Economy If Republicans Win the Midterms? - The Atlantic