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In the final push to Election Day, Democrats and Republicans are battling for the parent vote and the range of issues American parents face have left both sides thinking they hold the advantage.

Republicans remain concentrated on parental rights in helping dictate school curriculums and policies, as it proved a winning strategy in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. Facing a Republican sweep in the midterms, progressives decided they had to devote resources to winning over parents, but have opted to focus on financial assistance to stymie the costs of skyrocketing inflation.

"Parents are a really powerful voting bloc," Ailen Arreaza, North Carolina program director at ParentsTogether, a nonprofit advocating for progressive policies, told Newsweek. "Your identity as a parent really defines so many of the decisions that you make, from what you buy, where you live, and who you vote for."

Democrats and Republicans have predominately focused the final stretch of the midterm cycle on inflation, crime, abortion rights and the situation at the southern border. Yet, a new poll released by ABC News/Washington Post on Sunday found that "education and schools" is the second most important issue for voters, with 77 percent calling it "highly important."

GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin's win in Virginia in 2021 suggested that Republicans were likely to sail into Congress on a massive red wave this year. Youngkin's "parents matter" campaign successfully clinched him the governorship in a state that has historically favored Democrats. In the months that followed, leading Republican figures like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dominated headlines as they passed school-focused legislation, most notably the so-called "Don't Say Gay" bill, which they argued would give parents control over their children's education.

In response to a growing list of concerns, advocacy groups like Moms for Liberty, which has more than 100,000 members, were founded. In the 1 1/2 years since the Florida-based group launched, Moms for Liberty has cemented its position as a leading opponent of critical race theory and gender theory in public education and remote learning.

"All parents want to see their children be successful and live in a free country and be proud to be American," Tiffany Justice, co-founder of Moms for Liberty, told Newsweek. "2022 is the year of the parent. You have an increase in an extremely informed voting bloc of parents and I think it's going to be a change-maker in the midterms."

GOP campaigns in battleground states have picked up on this sentiment. Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, has promised to restrict what teachers can teach "on day one," while J.D. Vance, the GOP Senate candidate in Ohio, wrote that "we must give parents resources to control their kids' education," on his website.

While Republicans have been successful in building a broader coalition of support by advocating for parental rights, Democratic strategist Carly Cooperman said, "Democrats in some places were slow to catch up to these sentiments."

Democrats have closed the gap of the "red wave" many predicted coming in the midterms, according to new polls, and control of the Senate could come down to a handful of races. In tight races, voter turnout is critical and Arreaza stressed the need for Democrats to market their policies to parents.

"It's important for Democrats to really tap into the parent identity, to speak specifically and directly to parents in the same way that Republicans and conservatives have been doing, with real solutions about what families need," Arreaza said.

While Republicans are focused on parental control in classrooms, Arreaza argued the control parents are really looking for is financial control. As groceries and consumer prices rise amid high inflation, the cost of raising a family has also increased and that financial burden is precisely what Arreaza believes Democrats need to target.

"What parents really need are solutions that will support families and those solutions exist. Democrats have brought them forward," she said.

This month, Senate Democrats made one last push to enshrine a version of President Joe Biden's child tax credit, which provided families with up to $3,600 per child, before Republicans are likely to take one or both chambers of Congress.

Wisconsin Democratic Senate candidate Mandela Barnes also called for an expansion of the child tax credit and increased access to affordable child care, tweeting that his GOP opponent, incumbent Senator Ron Johnson, "thinks working to make sure that Wisconsinites have access to high-quality, affordable child care is not his responsibility."

The top voting issue remains the economy, and polls repeatedly indicate that voters are looking for solutions to the rising cost of living. A poll released by the National Parents Union this year found that 74 percent of parents are extremely or very concerned about rising costs for gas and food, making inflation the top issue concerning parents.

"The weight of the world is on parents' shoulders right now and it's unsustainable," Keri Rodrigues, co-founder and president of the National Parents Union, said in a press release for the survey. "American families are being squeezed and are rightfully frustrated by what is going on in the economy and in schools when all we ever wanted was to provide a better quality of life than what we had growing up for our children.

"It is critical that elected and school leaders find ways to actively listen to and engage parents to find solutions that will ease the strain on American families," Rodrigues said.

As a central part of their agenda, Democrats are also pushing for universal prekindergarten and paid family leave, but neither policy, nor the child tax credit, made it into the Inflation Reduction Act signed by Biden this summer. Pennsylvania Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman argued that Americans would have paid family leave "if we had one more Democratic vote in the Senate."

"Pennsylvania is Democrats' best chance to pick up a seat. I would be that vote," he tweeted last October.

Cooperman said polls show there is wide support among parents across party lines for a child tax credit and paid family leave, but that despite the popularity of those policies, "the Republican Party has shown little interest in expanding social programs in a permanent way."

While the GOP's apathy toward those policies should offer Democrats an edge on the parent vote, Republican strategist Jay Townsend told Newsweek that under the current political climate, oftentimes "anger trumps satisfaction." So, parents who are unhappy with today's schools or feel as though their rights as parents have been undermined may still be more inclined to vote for Republican candidates who have addressed those specific concerns.

But Cooperman stressed that the vote of parents is still up for grabs because the voting bloc cares about both having a say over their children's education and financial support for families.

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Democrats, Republicans Battle Over How to Win the Parent Vote - Newsweek

House Republicans have launched their legislative agenda for the next Congress. The Commitment to America is fairly brief, pretty unspecific, and filled with standard Republican platitudes around tax cuts and curbing wasteful spending. Kevin McCarthy, who will probably be Speaker if his party wins, calls it a new direction for America. What would Republicans do with control of the House?

We dissect whats in the Commitment to America, and look at its famous predecessor. Representative James Comer, who will likely chair the House Oversight Committee if Republicans win, explains what he plans to do in the role.

John Prideaux hosts with Charlotte Howard and Idrees Kahloon.

Runtime: 41 min

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What would Republicans do with a majority in the House of Representatives? - The Economist

September 30, 2022

National Journal reports [i]n 2020, Republicans depended on candidates of color, women, and veterans to claw back House seats. The party is looking to them to deliver again this cycle.

NJ: In fact, candidates and operatives credit the shift towards diversity largely to two white men: McCarthy and NRCC Chair Tom Emmer. McCarthy and Emmer have made it a priority to recruit candidates that look like their districts. Theyve relied on House members to help them figure out who would be a good fit..

In case you missed it

Republicans count on candidates of color to expand the House map

National Journal

By Mini Racker

September 30, 2022

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/718981/republicans-count-on-candidates-of-color-to-expand-the-house-map/?unlock=T3JRIAC8ANTTLO6K

On Wednesday, as Hurricane Ian bore down on the Florida district Anna Paulina Luna is likely to represent next year, she remained down the street from one of the last few open gas stations in the county.

A lot of my constituents could not leave, she said. And so I stayed.

Luna sees herself as a normal person trying to represent other normal people in Congress. Part of that has to do with her identity as a mixed-race Hispanic American. Growing up, she didnt consider it unusual that her dad spoke Spanish or that the elote man sold street corn alongside the local ice cream man.

But running for office, she began to realize how unique her perspective was. She was raised by a single mother. As a child, she had firsthand experience with the crime that disproportionately affects low-income minority communities; she recalled once seeing a man slumped over his steering wheel at an intersection and later overhearing her dad saying the man had been shot.

[My Hispanic identity] makes me a lot more passionate in regards to fighting to really correct this stereotype thats been put on to Hispanicsthat all Hispanics are quote-unquote illegal, she said. I actually get ticked off when I see that, because its not true. But then I also feel that immigrants are being used. If youre gonna come here, come here the correct way, cause youre gonna get hurt in the process.

In 2020, Republicans depended on candidates of color, women, and veterans to claw back House seats. The party is looking to them to deliver again this cycle.

Republicans doubling down on recruiting diverse, unique, interesting candidates was the biggest single game-changer in 2020, said Targeted Victory Vice President Sam Oh, who works with several nonwhite members of Congress. It shows candidates matter and every seat can be up for grabs. Their ability to raise money compared to what you would think is the kind of more prototypical or classic, traditional Republican candidate is a game-changer.

Now, the list of GOP congressional nominees of color is even longer. It includes at least 32 Latinos, 23 Black Americans, 12 Asian Americans, and three Native Americans.

Nineteen of them are running in districts The Cook Political Report deems competitive. Half a dozen of those are freshmen seeking reelection. One newcomer, John Gibbs, ousted a more moderate Republican in Michigans 3rd District. The other dozen represent GOP pick-up opportunities, positioning House Republicans to increase diversity in their ranks.

If you look at Juan Ciscomani in Arizona, Allan Fung in Rhode Island, George Logan in ConnecticutI mean, those candidates are putting those seats on the map for Republicans, Oh said. If you called me about Rhode Island or Connecticut five months ago, I wouldnt have thought those were serious deals. But were spending money there. That just shows the field is pretty expansive.

Party leaders are pouring some of the biggest sums into districts where people of color have become the partys nominees. A recent tally found that the Kevin McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund has spent the most in general-election independent expenditures in Indianas 1st District, where Republicans see promise in Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green. Green, like other nonwhite Republicans, wants to be judged by her accomplishments rather than the color of her skin. But when it comes to deflecting Democratic attacks, her identity as an African American and Asian American woman doesnt hurt.

Part of this is [that] its not about what people campaign on, its what the voters perceive, said Greens general consultant, Tim Edson. Theres a lot of voters used to only white men running for office. And [Green] has a white man running against her in a very diverse district. Theres something to be said when voters look around and see hes trying to attack her as against this group or against that group. Shes a very accomplished minority woman.

I just think it makes it a little harder for people like [her Democratic opponent] Frank Mrvan to run that playbook, Edson continued. People are like, No, this is actually somebody that I can vote for and its a vote I can feel good about.

Democrats have encountered minefields when theyve tried to paint other Republicans of color negatively. In the competitive race in Californias 45th District, Democrat Jay Chen was forced on defense after he suggested Rep. Michelle Steel needs an interpreter. Despite the fact that Chen, like Steel, is Asian American, he received heavy criticism after her campaign labeled the comment as racist.

Luna said that she has faced ignorant comments on the campaign trail, with one journalist suggesting she looked too white to be Hispanic.

Theres certain things that we understand culturally, but Im not going to go around with a sombrero on my head and say Arriba! she said, noting that many Americans still have a lot to learn when it comes to talking about mixed-race candidates.

She also mentioned how, on the night of the Republican primary, her Democratic opponent said Luna wants to support supreme extreme ideas.

I thought about that, and was like, This is kind of interesting branding that theyre using, because when youre talking about fast food, its kind of a joke. You have the extreme chipotle taco at Taco Bell and all that, she said. And then I looked it up, and [Extreme Supreme] was actually a brand of guacamole. And this came shortly after Jill Biden made the comment about Hispanics being unique as breakfast tacos.

In addition to their ability to defang criticisms from Democrats and the media, Republicans of color can reach voters that other Republicans cant.

[Green has] been working hard at that outreach, whether its visiting small businesses, going to churches, just going out to community events where often you might not have Republicans, Edson said. Where they feel out of place and dont think they can go in and be effective advocates for themselves, shes at ease. This is her community and its a place where shes comfortable campaigning.

Other Black Republicans also suggested that they can help stretch the partys tent.

My journey in the political realm is an example of what our country offers, said Gibbs, echoing the American-Dream messaging diverse new members rode to Congress in 2020. My grandparents were sharecroppers in the South, and my parents didnt go to college. But both my sisters and myself all have masters degrees.

Voters will come up and ask me, How do we get more Black folks in the Republican Party? he added.

What I can add to our party is basically the eyes of a Black Republican, said Army veteran Wesley Hunt. Because thats just inherently different from a white persons perspective; it just is.

Unlike Green and Gibbs, Hunt doesnt face a competitive race in November. Instead, he faced most of the competition in a crowded GOP primary in Texass 38th, a deep-red majority-white district near Houston.

Nine white guys and me running in our Republican primary, he said.

At one campaign event, a young man approached Hunt and asked if hed speak to his grandfather on the phone. When Hunt agreed, the older man sounded teary.

Wesley, Im 82 years old, Hunt recalled him saying. I used to be a very racist person and bigoted person against Black people. And youre the first Black person Ive ever voted for, because you share my same values. And Im sorry, about maybe the way Ive treated Black people in the past, but not only have you given the world hope, you have given me hope in myself that I can overcome my racism.

That kind of story is what I hear more often than not, Hunt added.

Hunt won his 10-way primary with 55 percent of the vote. If all goes as expected, hell head to Congress next year. He said he does not plan to try to join the Congressional Black Caucus due to the expectation that he would back certain legislation.

Given where the Democrats are right now, I just dont see that as a possibility, he said.

Congressional Republicans, on the other hand, have welcomed him.

When Im on the Hill, I hear every single time, Im really glad youre running. We absolutely need more people of color in our partywe both need it and we want it, because we want to look like America.

Who tells him that?

White men, Hunt said. I dont want to say any names because I dont want to make them feel uncomfortable. But Im glad that they felt comfortable with telling me that. Thats a good thing.

In fact, candidates and operatives credit the shift towards diversity largely to two white men: McCarthy and NRCC Chair Tom Emmer. McCarthy and Emmer have made it a priority to recruit candidates that look like their districts. Theyve relied on House members to help them figure out who would be a good fit, instead of just depending on consultants as some Republicans did in the past.

They do a good job, Gibbs said. Theyre starting with a small pool, so its a little bit tricky. Theres not a whole lot of Black Republicans out there to begin with.

Originally posted here:
National Journal: Republicans count on candidates of color to expand the House map - National Republican Congressional Committee

The midterms are only six weeks away, and Republicans keep trying to find a midterm issue to run on. Since the fall of Roe v. Wade in June, anti-abortion messaging has become an election liability; South Carolinas Republican senator, Lindsey Graham, tried to regain control of the narrative by introducing a 15-week abortion ban, but few of his Republican colleagues would (or could) get on board. Same-sex marriage, which recently hit a new approval rating of 71 percent, is another culture-war talking point off the table. And then theres the absolute third rail that Republican Senate candidates like (most recently) Blake Masters and Don Bolduc cant stop talking aboutprivatizing Social Security and Medicareeven though that, too, is wildly unpopular. Republicans seem to be in disarray.

The platforms of this Republican Party arent just unpopularoften, they seem nonexistent. This shouldnt come as a surprise. Policy wasnt a focus of Donald Trumps presidency; tweeting was. In 2020, Republicans didnt write a new policy platform at all. But now, two policy-less years later, Republicans find themselves in an unenviable position: They need to figure out how to win a midterm with little in the way of an agenda, and not much Trump. Can the party of Trump win without Trump?

What does the GOP stand for? Even Tucker Carlson cant answer that. In a segment praising the newly elected, far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (or Girlbossolini), the Fox News juggernaut told his viewers on Monday, House Republicans just spelled out what theyre running onits a document called the Commitment to America Have you heard of it? No, you probably havent. You probably havent read it. Nobody really cares. Why? Because there is nothing real in it. Congratulations House Republicans: Youve lost Tucker Carlson.

To read the rest, subscribe to The Atlantic.

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Republicans Keep Trying to Change the Subject - The Atlantic

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES

The last few weeks have been tumultuous for the issues of climate change and immigration. Record-setting summer temperatures, historic floods and devastating hurricanes have raised the stakes for the climate-change provisions contained within the Inflation Reduction Act. Meanwhile, Republican governors in Florida and Texas have attracted media attention for paying to transport migrants and asylum seekers to liberal areas of the country.

These two issues arent obviously linked, but they have one major commonality: They rank among the most partisan in the United States. Those on the left care a great deal about climate change, while those on the right are more likely to identify immigration and border security as an important issue.

In light of recent developments in both these areas, we decided to focus the fifth wave of our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll on climate change and immigration. Using Ipsoss KnowledgePanel, weve been asking the same group of about 2,000 Americans what they feel are the countrys most important issues. In our latest poll, inflation or increasing costs, crime or gun violence and political extremism or polarization continued to appear on Americans list of most important issues, as theyve ranked among the top three in each wave of our survey since we began polling in late April. But climate change (20 percent) and immigration (19 percent) were next in our most recent wave, as the chart below shows.

Few issues had a wider partisan split than climate change or immigration. Overall, 36 percent of Democrats and just 5 percent of Republicans ranked climate change as a top issue facing the country. Conversely, 38 percent of Republicans and 6 percent of Democrats cited immigration as a top concern. This split has appeared consistently across all five waves: In each, 21 percent to 36 percent of Democrats have named climate change as a top issue, and 32 percent to 38 percent of Republicans have said the same of immigration.

When it comes to climate change, Americans are divided by party on more than simply its importance. When asked how much of climate change is caused by humans, 88 percent of Democrats and just 35 percent of Republicans said that it was entirely or mostly caused by humans, with independents between the two at 65 percent. When asked whether the U.S. should pass regulations related to climate change that were more strict, less strict or about as strict as they are today, 76 percent of Democrats, 43 percent of independents and only 17 percent of Republicans wanted stricter regulations.

And when asked to choose between two approaches to dealing with climate change, 89 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents supported prioritizing changes today that would reduce the effects of climate change before they happen, while 57 percent of Republicans preferred adjusting to climate change as its happening to minimize disruptions to daily life. Willie Yelverton, a 50-year-old Black man from Pennsylvania who identified as a Democrat, told us that even seemingly mundane changes would be important to reducing the impact of climate change. [The government will] need to institute standard issue tax breaks for reusable materials, he said. Therell have to be bans on goods that dont have a path to be recycled and or reused going forward. Those are small line items, but its a very tough pill to swallow.

However, we did find more agreement across party lines when it came to legislative action to address climate change. We asked Americans whether they supported three climate-change measures included in the Inflation Reduction Act, which became law last month (we asked this without referring to the Inflation Reduction Act by name). As the chart below indicates, Americans across the political spectrum were at least somewhat receptive to them.

Overall, more than 60 percent backed each of the three proposals, which included an increased emphasis on developing and using alternative energy sources, increased government regulation on corporations carbon emissions and giving tax credits to corporations that reduce carbon emissions. This included a majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents, too, save for increasing government regulation of business carbon emissions although a plurality of Republicans still backed this idea (47 percent). Despite decently strong support for these proposals, Americans were largely unfamiliar with the Inflation Reduction Act, with only 38 percent stating that they were very or somewhat familiar with it.

We also found that, regardless of party, a respondents concern about climate change related to whether he or she had experienced unusual climate events. Republicans displayed a striking worry gap based on experience: Forty-six percent of those who had encountered extreme weather in the past five years said they were worried about climate change, compared with just 17 percent who hadnt (a gap 8 percentage points larger than the one seen among Democrats, who already had a majority of respondents express worry about climate change independent of their experiences). A 61-year-old man from Florida who identified as a person of color and a Republican said he had recently experienced an extreme weather event, noting particular concern over the obvious destruction of natural resources due to excessive heat, diminished water reserves and unusual number of heat domes impacting climate across multiple continents.

With the media spotlight hovering over immigration, partisan divides toward immigration should also come as little surprise. When we asked if rules surrounding legal immigration should become more strict, less strict or remain about the same, a plurality of Republicans (43 percent) preferred stricter rules, while 36 percent preferred the status quo, and 12 percent backed looser regulations (the remainder didnt know or skipped the question). By comparison, only 11 percent of Democrats favored more restrictive rules, with 73 percent split evenly between wanting things to remain about the same or become less strict.

Meanwhile, Republicans were more unified on the issue of illegal immigration, as 78 percent said they wanted stricter rules toward those entering the country without proper authorization, compared to just 24 percent of Democrats who said the same. Michael Ritchie, a 27-year-old white man from Texas who identified as a conservative-libertarian independent, told us he wanted the government to incentivize legal immigration and disincentivize immigrants entering the country without legal permission. I don't think there can ever be enough boots on the ground, per se, to completely secure the border, he said. But creating new policies or revamping immigration policies that would keep people from coming here simply for free rides or anything like that, but also make it easier for people to come here legally.

That aligns with another finding in our poll: Among the 1 in 5 respondents who named immigration as a top issue facing the country, 95 percent said undocumented immigration was a bigger issue for the country, compared with just 1 percent who said legal immigration. The federal government abandoned its duty to protect our borders. The flow of immigration outside the proper process is a symptom that anything can cross it without control, said a 41-year-old Hispanic man from New York who identified as Republican.

And unlike the policy ideas to tackle climate change, Americans were more split on the best ways to address immigration concerns. When we asked whether respondents supported or opposed five immigration-related proposals, the only one that received majority support was the U.S. accepting more refugees from Ukraine.

But as weve seen in other polls, Americans view refugees differently based on where theyre from, as only 45 percent overall wanted to accept more refugees from Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Republicans were far and away most supportive of expanding the border wall between the U.S. and Mexico (80 percent) and further restricting the number of visas given out (62 percent), while solid majorities of Democrats opposed these ideas (75 percent and 60 percent, respectively). Outside of supporting an increase in Ukrainian refugees and opposing the building of a border wall between the U.S. and Canada, independents were split pretty evenly on these proposals.

Of course, its not as if these issues stand apart from each other. A 24-year-old multiracial woman from California who identified as a Democrat said, [Climate change] will have such a large impact on Americas future, yet its turned into a political issue with so much disinformation being spread. People are refusing to make the changes necessary to reverse climate change because of politicians who tell them lies. Others tied immigration to issues such as health care. Illegal immigration is a burden on the health care, judicial, education, etc. systems in the U.S. Even legal immigration hurts the U.S. with overpopulation, said a 63-year-old white man from New York who identified as a Republican.

And how these issues motivate or persuade voters to back one party or the other will be of vital importance when voters go to the polls in November. With fewer than six weeks until the midterms, 46 percent of respondents told us they were certain or almost certain to vote, up from 42 percent back in the first wave in the spring. And among those likely voters, Democrats and Republicans are about evenly split on the generic ballot, with 41 percent saying that they plan to vote for a Democrat and 40 percent planning to vote for a Republican (which is within the margin of error). Still, 17 percent of likely voters told us they intended to vote for a third-party option or didn't know how they planned to vote.

Based on their highly partisan nature in todays political environment, climate change and immigration may not immediately jump out as issues that help undecided voters make up their minds. But well get a firmer answer to this question next month, when we take a closer look at which issues voters are thinking about the most when they cast their ballots.

Art direction by Dan Dao. Copy editing by Maya Sweedler. Story editing by Santul Nerkar.

Original post:
Do Democrats And Republicans Agree On Anything About Climate Change And Immigration? - FiveThirtyEight