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For Matthew, the Queens death is double edged: Theres cause for celebration in the sense that it might kickstart the end of the monarchy but its frustrating because I darent say that to anyone but my wife!

He admits crafting several Facebook posts arguing that the death of Queen Elizabeth II ought to preempt the UKs transition to a republic but has shied away from pressing send. A lot of people seem very emotional at the moment and I dont want to be the target of a massive pile-on by trolls, said Matthew (not his real name).

Other republicans admit they feel bullied into supporting something they dont believe in. I feel unable to express an opinion without being branded disrespectful, so therefore Ive been funnelled into complying with the countrys grief, said Aisha, who also requested a pseudonym.

As someone who believes the monarchy is an outdated concept that compromises our democratic right and signifies colonialism, I am suddenly being turned into the bad guy for deciding not to celebrate that aspect of the Queens life.

People blur the line between her as a person who did a lot of amazing things and her as a queen, and thats where they get defensive, she said.

However, groups representing the views of Britains republicans say that now is not the time to be cowed into suppressing their beliefs.

Aware of supporters electing to self-censor and hearing reports of others admitting they are too petrified to air their views for fear of being cancelled, the main republican campaign group is actively pushing calls to abolish the monarchy.

Obviously people will be careful not to cause offence, but this is also a public office that needs to be debated, said Graham Smith, spokesperson for Republic, which is campaigning to replace the monarchy with an elected head of state. People still have every right to say whatever they think they shouldnt feel cowed. But there is a lot of concern, particularly on social media, about being censored or saying the wrong thing.

As coverage of the Queens death continues to dominate broadcast schedules, Smith anticipated ambivalence would become the overriding response for millions during the days ahead. There is an appetite for a lot of this, but there will be a point where people feel its going too far or going on for too long. Theres going be a lot of people switching over to Netflix and other streaming channels.

The saturation point for many, he envisaged, would be the middle of this week and although he anticipated overt republican and anti-monarchy sentiment to decline around the Queens funeral, he expected a resurgence soon after, when many predict the UK will enter a different era of debate over the future of its royal family.

Smith believes admiration for the Queen has largely repressed republicanism, with the issue likely to be imbued with renewed energy. The Queen was the monarchy for most people and has been all our lives. Charles will not inherit that level of deference and respect, and this really does change the whole dynamic, he said.

It was notable, the group said, that even during the hours immediately following the announcement of the Queens death on Thursday evening, it received a rise in support. Republic recorded more than 2,000 new followers during the 24 hours after the announcement. Were also getting an influx of people signing up to us, added Smith.

Although polls have consistently shown that the vast majority of Britons back the monarchy republicans have long accepted they had no chance of changing the system while the Queen was alive support for the monarchy has been falling.

Charles is a very different kettle of fish. If support was dropping anyway, its not going to go up, said Smith.

Polling ahead of the celebrations for the countrys first-ever platinum jubilee earlier this year suggested that 62% of Britons said they supported the monarchy. A decade earlier, however, the same polling company YouGov reported that figure was 11 points higher, at 73%. YouGov polling also revealed that almost a quarter 22% of people in the UK now support abolishing the monarchy, a pronounced increase from a decade earlier.

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King Charles is a different kettle of fish: Britains republicans believe their time will come - The Guardian

The NRCC also will air ads for the first time in three open seats: $2.7 million in a new district in North Carolinas Research Triangle, where Republican Bo Hines faces Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel; $2.6 million in a newly created district in the northern Denver suburbs, where Republican Barb Kirkmeyer is challenging state Rep. Yadira Caraveo; and $3.4 million in an open district in northeastern Ohio, where Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes faces Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert.

These buys give insight into what Republican strategists see as the clearest path to taking back the House. Additional spending is expected in the next two months.

We are continuing to expand the playing field deeper into Democrat-held territory and look forward to prosecuting the case against every one of these vulnerable Democrats, NRCC Chair Tom Emmer said in a statement.

The committee also upped its investment in Republican-held turf, too.

It will spend $2.2 million in its first ad buy to defend Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.). And the NRCC increased its spending to protect Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.), Mike Garcia (R-Calif.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Steve Chabot (R-Ohio). All hold districts that Biden carried in 2020, leaving them increasingly vulnerable.

The NRCC also added to existing reservations in another eight districts currently held by Democrats, including Reps. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) and Angie Craig (D-Minn.), as well as districts currently held by retiring Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) and Conor Lamb (D-Pa.). It will also spend another $1.9 million to target Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and $1 million against Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.).

New NRCC spending:

Additional investments (with GOP-held seats in bold):

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House Republicans add $28M to fall TV reservations - POLITICO

Kevin McCarthy has promised to fulfill a Commitment to America if Republicans take back the House in November: The American Dream will be revived, he says. The nation will be made safe and free, and everything will get back on the right track. But what would a GOP return to power really look like? One word: Payback.

For all the minority leaders pseudo-inspirational campaign promises, priority number one for a Republican majority appears to be revenge. Not only would McCarthy likely gavel a range of partisan investigations, from inquiries into Hunter Biden to a political probe into the January 6 committee. His majority might also attempt to mount impeachments against President Joe Biden and, according to Semafors Kadia Goba, several other administration officials, including Attorney General Merrick Garland, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona.

Much of this growing vendetta appears to be coming from the furthest right flank, including Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has already repeatedly pushed for Bidens impeachment. (By her own account, Greene also drafted articles of impeachment last month against Garland following the FBI raid on Donald Trumps Florida home.) But McCarthy has consistently refused to stand up to radicals in his party like Greene, instead coddling them while casting out Trump critics like Liz Cheney. Theres no reason to think he wouldnt continue to do so should he assume the speakership, especially since McCarthy himself teased a Garland probe after the Mar-a-Lago search.

Its fair to assume, then, that a Republican-led House would waste little time getting to work on Trumps behalf. As Politico pointed out Thursday, as much as 60 percent of the GOP caucus next year will have served only since 2017, roughly the beginning of the Trump era. That could mean a majority in the lower chamber that is, at best, barely in touch with Biden and, at worst, harbors an open hostility toward him. Republicans claim thats because the president has made no attempt at outreach across the aisle. McCarthy has been ignored for two years, vilified to some degree, as Republican Representative Tom Cole complained to Politico. I think theyll probably learn to regret that. Of course, that's rich coming from Republicans, when 147 of those on Capitol Hill, including McCarthy, voted against certifying Bidens 2020 victory, even after pro-Trump insurrectionists stormed Congress. Many of them still cant bring themselves to acknowledge Bidens presidency as legitimate, let alone do anything that could be construed as bipartisan. There will be gridlock if Republicans take one or both chambers that much is certain. But itll be hard to blame Biden for it, given the GOP's stated intent to use their power to settle scores on behalf of Trump.

None of this is to say Biden or his administration are or should be above congressional oversight. Members of both parties have raised legitimate questions about, say, the execution of the withdrawal from Afghanistan and its aftermath. But politically motivated impeachments and probes into Trump-backed conspiracy theories have less in common with the congressional inquiries Democrats launched after taking the House in 2018, during Trump's presidency, and more in common with the Republicans ceaseless investigations into Hillary Clinton at the tail end of Barack Obamas presidency. McCarthy doomed his previous shot at the speakership when he essentially admitted, in 2015, that the Benghazi probe was meant, at least in part, to tank Clintons political standing. Seven years later, such acknowledgements have perhaps become the surest path to the gavel.

Before exacting any kind of payback, McCarthys party obviously has to score sweeping wins in midterms first. And while the odds remain in the GOP's favor, there are no guarantees. The GOP has already revised its forecast for the Senate as Democrats continue to build momentum, Republicans struggle with fundraising, and Mitch McConnell frets over candidate quality. The GOP has maintained its optimism about retaking the House, but voter outrage over abortion-rights rollbacks and concerns about the future of democracy could throw a wrench in the party's plans. Could the specter of House Republicans retaliating on behalf of Trump for the next two years be yet another electoral wildcard?

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House Republicans Threaten Biden With the Hillary Clinton Treatment - Vanity Fair

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Way back in the summer of 2016, a phenomenon appeared in several political polls that nobody in the American media could explain. Donald Trump seemed to be performing exceptionally well among Hispanic voters in Florida. It was bizarre, so bizarre that everyone knew it could not be happening. It was scientifically impossible. If there's one thing that every reporter in America understood, it was that Donald Trump hated Hispanics like the devil hates holy water.

Some believed Trump was planning a national ban on picante sauce. That's how deep and implacable his hatred was and yet, according to whatjournalists refer to as "the data", actual Hispanics seem to like Donald Trump. Cognitive dissonance is the term that describes what happened next. How could the numbers show something that couldn't be happening? So, the Miami Herald looked into it and their conclusion was fairly straightforward: Hispanic voters in Florida were mentally ill and also evil.

As one Miami Herald columnist put it, "Donald Trump's Cuban-American followers suffer from "Cuban Supremacy Syndrome." It's an old national ailment of the soul." So, that was the diagnosis, something called Cuban Supremacy Syndrome, a serious but previously unknown medical condition like ADHD or long COVID. Someone better call a doctor. This could be fatall. But before the medical establishment could intervene to save Hispanic voters from themselves, this ailment spread like the virus it was, first from Florida, then to Texas and then across the country.

By 2020, it was endemic. In the presidential election that year, Donald Trump, the guy who wanted to build a wall, became the first Republican in history to win Zapata County, Texas. Zapata County, Texas is approximately 94% Hispanic (94%) and he won. For the Democratic Party, this was an emergency made worse by the fact that there were no Cubans in Zapata County, Texas. It's pretty much all Mexican-American, so Cuban Supremacy Syndrome could not be the cause of it. And that's what a man calledEduardo Gamarracame to the rescue.

JD VANCE SAYS TIM RYAN 'BENDS THE KNEE' TO BIDEN, INSISTS 'MAGA REPUBLICAN' COMMENTS ARE DIVIDING AMERICANS

Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters at a rally to support local candidates on Sept. 3, 2022 in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Now, Gamarrais a blue-eyed college professor from Florida who has somehow convinced news organizations that he is the world's authority on what recently arrived poor people from Central America really think and he had a new diagnosis. Gamarra, NBC News reported, found a "casual link between misinformation and disinformation and how Spanish speakers have voted in recent elections."

Of course, it was obvious Putin did it, just like Putin caused inflation and monkeypox and that war in Europe. According to Professor Gamarra, Hispanic voters were just too stupid to realize what was going on. They had no idea they were being fooled. They're just too dumb to Democrats. This explanation made perfect sense, of course, and they bought it. A survey last month from WPA intelligence found that more than half of CNN and MSNBC viewers now believe that "disinformation is compelling Hispanic voters to vote Republican." Here's NBC News.

REPORTER: It's a phenomenon that's having real world effects. In Florida, 40% of Cuban Americans say they don't believe President Joe Biden was legitimately elected and given that Latinos spend more time on social media than their non-Hispanic White counterparts, it's a problem that's not going away, but it's not just happening in Florida. In Texas, Democratic strategists are sounding the alarm about a wave of misinformation aimed at Latinos heading into 2022.

Did you hear that? Democratic strategists are sounding the alarm that Latinos spend so much time staring glassy-eyed at their phones that they now have questions about the fairness of the last election. How to fix this? Obviously, we're going to need a lot more censorship to keep this disinformation away from all those gullible Latinos. Someone get Mark Zuckerberg on the phone immediately. It's hilarious.

The bad news about the Democratic Party, obviously, is that it has become authoritarian. The good news is it remains ridiculous.

NINTH CIRCUIT SENDS CASE CHALLENGING CALIFORNIA'S 'DRACONIAN' GUN LAW TO LOWER COURT, CITING SCOTUS RULING

These are people who believe their own improbable propaganda. It sets up the real explanation. So, what is the answer? Why exactly are Hispanic voters moving to the right? They definitely are. The latest Fox News polling shows that 72% of Hispanic voters are not satisfied with the direction the Democrats are taking in the United States. Why? Why is that? What problem do Latino voters have with the Democratic Party?

Well, the answer might be as obvious as it seems. They just don't like what we've got now. It is entirely possible that, like all normal people, Hispanic voters have come to despise the entitled urban liberals who run everything, and why wouldn't they despise them? Those people are absurd. Not a single word they utter is sincere ever and everything they touch turns to filth. We can give you countless examples of this, but we're going to pull one from today's news.

Washington, D.C. Council member Brianne Nadeauhas long promised to love and protect illegal aliens in Washington, D.C and thanks to her and many like her local government, the District of Columbia is now a "sanctuary city." That's how much they love illegal aliens,Brianne Nadeauespecially. She loves them and yet the moment actual illegal aliens showed up in Washington, D.C., sent by the governor of Texas,Brianne Nadeau became completely hysterical about it. Watch this.

BRIANNE NADEAU: It's been said, but it's worth reiterating that the governors of Texas and Arizona have created this crisis and in many ways, the governors of Texas and Arizona have turned us into a border town.

DOUBLE RAINBOW OVER BUCKINGHAM PALACE AFTER DEATH OF QUEEN ELIZABETH II: A 'LASTING SYMBOL'

They've turned us into a border town. Really? Why is that bad? What's wrong with border towns? Weren't you just telling us, Brianne Nadeau, how great border towns are, so much diversity, so much strength.

But as it turns out, and this probably won't shock you, Brianne Nadeaudidn't mean any of it.Brianne Nadeaudoesn't want illegal aliens in her neighborhood any more than the overwhelmingly Hispanic voters of Zapata County, Texas, want them in theirs. So, what would that makeBrianne Nadeau?Well, a disgusting little hypocrite. You knew that already. A lot of Hispanic voters are learning it now. So, there's that: the basic repulsiveness of Democratic Party leaders by the way, nearly all of whom are openly hostile to the historic Christianity of Latin America that a lot of immigrants still believe in. But then there's also crime.

Crime is the big one. It seems likely that more than any other issue, crime, the increase in crime in the United States, is moving Hispanic voters to the right. They see, as we all see, liberals aggressively encouraging crime. Crime destroys their neighborhoods. Crime destroys the lives of the weakest and these voters, like all voters watched Nancy Pelosi call MS-13children of God at the same moment thatMS-13members were hacking Salvadoran immigrants to death with machetes. Remember when Pelosi said that? Here it is.

NANCY PELOSI: We're all God's children. There's a spark of divinity in every person on Earth and so when the president of the United States says about undocumented immigrants, these aren't people, these are animals, you have to wonder, does he not believe in the spark of divinity, the dignity and worth of every person?

JD VANCE SAYS TIM RYAN 'BENDS THE KNEE' TO BIDEN, INSISTS 'MAGA REPUBLICAN' COMMENTS ARE DIVIDING AMERICANS

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks at a press conference. (Getty Images)

So, they watch someone who clearly doesn't actually believe in God, invoke God repeatedly to defend something that's completely indefensible. Just a year before Pelosi's heartfelt tribute toMS-13an MS-13 gang member stabbed a man outside Washington more than 100 times and then beheaded him and ripped out his heart. That was a child of God? No, Trump was right. That was an animal. Hispanic voters can see that. Most of them did not go to Yale Law School to their great credit.

Just days ago, a man calledJose Solano Landaetabeheaded a mother on the street in Silicon Valley. Her two young children watched as he murdered her and who was this man? We reached out to the San Mateo County Sheriff's Office officials to learn more about him. We asked, was he here in the country illegally? And here's the response that we got. "I'm sorry, I'm not able to share that information."

Why is that? Well, we can guess why, because, of course, there's a very high chance that this man was in the country illegally and not by accident. Democrats have suspended border enforcement to win the love of Hispanic voters. What they apparently did not realize because they're not super bright, is that Hispanic voters don't want violent lunatics in their neighborhoods either. They're not into beheading people. Who knew?

There's one other factor that may be moving this large and centrally important group of voters to the right. People whose families have immigrated from the third world may be more sensitive than most to the importance of the rule of law. The rule of law is the one thing that America has always had that the rest of world has not. That's why people come here and most immigrants consider it important still. Liberals do not consider it important. They're working to end it. Equal protection under the law is disappearing.

HUNTER BIDEN SAID HE WOULD BE 'HAPPY' TO INTRODUCE BUSINESS ASSOCIATES TO TOP CCP OFFICIAL

At every level of American life, Liberals apply an obvious double standard and that double standard is based on race. That would be matters of education and employment, obviously, but also matters of law enforcement and criminal justice. Liberals put up with certain behavior from some people that they would never accept in other people. That is the definition of unfairness, but you see it every single day. Remember the arrest of that Dominican bodega owner in New York, the guy who was violently assaulted by a man whose girlfriend tried to rob the store? The bodega owner tried to defend himself, and he stabbed his attacker, as most people would.

Authorities in New York charged that man with murder and sentenced to jail and everyone could tell this was a double standard. Would an elderly Black bodega owner had been arrested for stabbing a Dominican attacker? Obviously not. No one said it, but everyone saw it and everyone understood the unfairness of that, including Hispanic voters. Why would they like it? If they wanted to live in a deeply unfair society, they would have stayed in the countries their ancestors came from, but they came here because it's a fair society. That's the main appeal of America, not a robust economy, but the fact that we're all equal under the law.

That's the one thing other countries don't have and we do or did. So, there's a double standard and everyone sees it and it's not just the level of bodega owners, it goes to the very top of the Democratic Party, to its top candidates. In South Carolina, for example, Democrats have nominated a Senate candidate, U.S. Senate, called Krystle Matthews. Krystle Matthews was caught on tape recently by James O'Keefe's group, Project Veritas, openly advocating for punishing people because they're the wrong skin color. Not exaggerating. Here's the tape.

MATTHEWS:My district is slightly Republican and its heavily White. I'm no stranger to White people, I'm from a mostly White town and let me tell you one thing: You oughta know who youre dealing with, like, you gotta treat them like s---, I mean, thats the only way theyll respect you.

BIDEN TO ADDRESS DNC RECEPTION FOLLOWING BACKLASH OVER 'MAGA REPUBLICAN' RHETORIC ABOUT MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Got to hurt White people or they won't respect you. She said that. That video is real and yet somehow no one seems to have noticed. Krystle Matthewsis not on the front page of The New York Times this morning. There was no Justice Department investigation into her. That's weird and everyone knows it's weird, but it's hardly the only shocking news story that's not being covered as a news story. Also missing from mainstream coverage is this video from Memphis of young criminal promising to murder White people because of their skin color.

MAN: He already shot a White old man. Im fixin to shoot a White old lady while her grandkids are in the car

So, that video was recorded just a day after the rampage, the murder rampage in the same city Memphis, committed by a felon called Ezekiel Kelly. Ezekiel Kelly, like so many people who've committed murder recently, was let out of jail early. but no one in charge in the Democratic Party in Memphis even bothered by that. In fact, while he was killing people, a state representative in Tennessee, a Democrat called Antonio Parkinson, complained that the real problem was police might hurt Ezekiel Kelly. That was his main concern. "This is unbelievable. Ezekiel Kellywill probably be killed tonight at the hands of police. We are losing our children," he wrote.

Really? That's your concern? So, in all three of these stories, we've just reminded you of the bodega owner in New York,Krystle Matthewsin South Carolina, the anti-White violence in Memphis, no one's noticing. Joe Biden's DOJis standing back and doing nothing. In other words, they're allowing violent race hate to flourish in the United States at the same time they are telling you White supremacy is the biggest threat we face. This is terrifying on many levels, but above all, once again, it is an attack not on any specific ethnic group, but on a principle that protects all of us and that's the principle of equal justice under the law.

MEMPHIS LIVESTREAM MASSACRE SUSPECT EZEKIEL KELLY FREED AFTER PLEA DEAL IN PRIOR SHOOTING: INDICTMENT

If you move to the United States from Latin America hoping to live under a fair justice system, this might bother you and a lot of people are bothered. They didn't want to live in Honduras. That's why they moved here and yet no one in Washington on either side, the Democrats who are making this possible, the Republicans who are still yammering on about criminal justice reform seem to understand this. But you know who does understand? The Hispanic immigrants. They understand it very well. They see that it's not safe anywhere. Anywhere, not just in the so-called bad neighborhoods, but in the so-called nice neighborhoods, the ones they live in or want to live in. This video is from Sunday. It was taken in a Chicago suburb called Lakeview. Three men attack a woman on the sidewalk in front of her home. Watch this.

You see that? That's not some scary neighborhood a roll-em-up neighborhood. That's the neighborhood you live in, or you want to live in. That's the neighborhood you picture when you think middle America. It's a nice, leafy neighborhood. That could be your daughter attacked on the sidewalk in front of your house. That's happening and it's going to get a lot worse if we don't pull back now, but they're not pulling back. The Democratic Party is doubling down. In January, police in the state of Illinois will be banned from removing trespassers from your property. The Democrat-controlled legislature just passed that law. Effectively, they have legalized home invasions and there will likely be many more of those because starting next year, the Safety Act just passed in Illinois will let violent felons out of jail with no bail actual violent felons, people who committed crimes like second degree murder and arson and kidnaping.

What will happen then? Well, I think we know because it's been tried in other places like New York City, where people are regularly shot, beaten and robbed in public, People who could not be held behind bars because Democrats decided that was mean. They're worried about the criminals and not worried about you. And once again, to restate, if you siloed Hispanic voters into this one specific group whose concerns are totally different from everyone else's you're missing the thread. That's not true. Hispanic voters like every other voter, every voter of every race, they don't like crime and violence, but it's everywhere. These clips are all from the last month.

VULNERABLE DEMOCRAT WHO PREVIOUSLY WELCOMED BIDEN WON'T SAY IF SHE'LL ATTEND FRIDAY EVENT WITH PRESIDENT

REPORTER ON SHOOTING IN BROAD DAYLIGHT: People sitting outside suddenly scrambled to get out of the way as one man pops out of the sunroof and another out of the passenger window. They both start shooting.

REPORTER ON BRUTAL SUCKER PUNCH: An arrest is made in this brutal, cowardly sucker punch at the Kings Plaza Mall. Police say 21-year-oldJahiem Davisis facing assault charges.

REPORTER ON DISABLED MAN ROBBED ON THE BUS: Surveillance video from the S40 MTA bus caught the incident on August 13th that shows the suspect walking up to a 64-year-old victim who is sitting in that wheelchair. Cops say he grabbed $250 from the man.

REPORTER ON BASEBALL BAT ATTACK:A man got into a dispute with some others at that location. One of them hit him with a baseball bat and another punched him in the face.

REPORTER ON RECENT MOPED ROBBERIES: Surveillance video caught them as they went up to a 28-year-old victim and her friend. The two were walking on the sidewalk when the duo went up to them and tried to grab, according to detectives, the victim's necklace from her neck. Police say the trio rode onto the sidewalk and the passengers from the dirt bike jumped off and forcibly removed a Rolex watch from the victim's wrist.

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What country is this? It didn't used to be America. This is not organic. We didn't used to live like this. Liberals did this. They did this on purpose. They created more crime. It didn't just happen, and the numbers couldn't be clearer on that. Any Republican running for office this cycle, which is to say the month after next, who wasn't running on this, is an idiot because everyone knows it's happening of all colors.

Just today local media in New York reported that a 21-year-old tourist was kidnaped and raped on a subway platform by a stranger. Are you shocked by that? You shouldn't be. That's what happens when you stop enforcing the law. That's what happens when you put the interests of criminals above those of citizens. Everyone can see what's happening, no matter what color they are. Democrats should not be surprised when they are punished for this.

Tucker Carlson currently serves as the host of FOX News Channels (FNC) Tucker Carlson Tonight (weekdays 8PM/ET). He joined the network in 2009 as a contributor.

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TUCKER CARLSON: Behind the 'disinformation' about Latino support for Republicans - Fox News

Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Something weve written about pretty extensively at FiveThirtyEight is the fact that Democrats are on the upswing. Whether its special elections or the generic ballot, which asks voters which party theyd support in an election, Democrats standing has steadily improved since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in Dobbs v. Jackson, in June.

This is especially true in the Senate, where Democrats currently have a 70 percent chance of winning in the 2022 FiveThirtyEight midterm election forecast.

Are Republicans in trouble in the Senate?

It certainly seems Minority Leader Mitch McConnell thinks thats the case. In August, he said at a Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Kentucky that I think theres probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different theyre statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.

So lets talk Senate races and the GOPs best pickup chances, along with the races where they might be surprisingly weak (and yes, those often might be the same races). Lets start with the four most competitive Senate seats that are the GOPs best pickup opportunities this year Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and New Hampshire as well as two other Senate seats they need to hold onto Pennsylvania, which is an open seat, and Wisconsin, where Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is seeking reelection, although that seat is currently rated as a toss-up in our forecast.

First up, whats going on with Wisconsin? Could Republicans lose it?

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): Yes, Republicans could absolutely lose Wisconsin. According to the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, the race is a toss-up: Johnson has a 51-in-100 chance of winning, and Democrat Mandela Barnes has a 49-in-100 chance of winning.

And if you use the Lite version of our forecast which mostly uses just polls, no fundamentals or expert race ratings Barnes is leading, with a 72-in-100 chance of winning.

The big question is whether those polls, which have generally shown Barnes ahead, get better for Republicans. Weve seen only a few polls out of Wisconsin so far this year, so the picture there is fuzzier than in other states.

sarah: So few polls that we dont even have a polling average yet! (For curious readers, our criteria is: at least five polls from three different pollsters conducted this year.)

In other words #trustthepolls but with a healthy dose of skepticism when it comes to Wisconsin?

nrakich: Yes, polls in Wisconsin were notoriously bad in 2020. Our final polling average had Biden leading by 8.4 percentage points in Wisconsin, and he ended up winning by less than 1 point.

alex (Alex Samuels, politics reporter): From what polling Ive seen, Johnsons approval numbers leave a lot to be desired. A June Marquette University Law School had his favorability at just 37 percent among registered voters, with 46 percent saying they viewed the two-term senator unfavorably. That same poll also showed a tight race between Johnson and Barnes, with the latter narrowly ahead, 46 percent to 44 percent.

But I definitely dont think we should count Johnson out. The national climate is still probably on his side, for one, and hes defeated formidable opponents before. (Back in 2016, he narrowly bested three-term Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.)

nrakich: I dont know, Alex. I think Johnson is a pretty weak candidate. He has made some conspiratorial comments about vaccines, and he was allegedly involved in the effort to throw the 2020 election to Trump. He did win in 2016, but I think he just got lucky Wisconsin banked hard to the right that year, as Hillary Clinton can attest.

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst): Well, Im not so sure, Nathaniel. Johnson is a Republican incumbent in a state that has a small lean toward the GOP, in a midterm in which Democrats hold the White House. Those sorts of conditions dont usually work out for the challenging party. In fact, earlier this year, for CNN, former FiveThirtyEighter Harry Enten looked at midterms dating back to 1982 and found that incumbent senators in circumstances like Johnsons have won 86 of 87 times since then.

alex: What could also work in Johnsons favor is that Republicans are looking to paint Barnes as too liberal and out of touch with the states politics. In August, I wrote about why Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar is a sort of bogey(wo)man for Republicans, so if the GOP can successfully tie her brand of firebrand progressivism to Barnes, then he could be in real trouble considering what Nathaniel said earlier about Wisconsin only narrowly going for Biden in 2020.

sarah: Indeed, Alex! In fact, FiveThirtyEights video team did a whole video on Barnes and how hes trying to cast himself as more of a moderate to voters.

But lets talk over the other seat that Republicans technically control Pennsylvania although its an open-seat race, with Sen. Pat Toomey retiring. How do things look for Republicans there?

geoffrey.skelley: Pennsylvania is problematic for the GOP, as our forecast currently gives Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman about a 4-in-5 shot of winning over Republican Mehmet Oz.

Toomeys retirement produced a highly competitive Republican primary, which Oz barely won, and Fetterman now holds an 8-point lead in the polls. But like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania has a slight Republican lean, so this really should be ground the GOP is better positioned to hold.

sarah: Pennsylvania is another state, though, where the polls werent exactly on target in 2020. Although as weve written extensively at FiveThirtyEight, just because the polls miss in one election, doesnt mean theyll miss in the following election or even in the same direction!

nrakich: This race has been a big surprise for me. Id have thought that Ozs more liberal past positions on issues like abortion and gun control would be helping him in a general election. Instead, hes had trouble improving his image after a really nasty Republican primary.

alex: Oz also isnt very well-liked in the state. A poll by AARP/Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research in June, for instance, found that his favorability rating among likely voters in Pennsylvania was 33 points underwater 30 percent favorable to 63 percent unfavorable.

Fetterman, on the other hand, had a net-positive favorability rating of 10 points: 46 percent to 36 percent. And the survey was taken prior to the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, so Im wondering if some Republicans and women, who were also not particularly keen on Oz, per the survey have since soured on Oz even more.

sarah: I am curious, though, how big of a problem Fettermans health is going to be for him in the general election. (He suffered a stroke in May.) The Pittsburgh Post-Gazettes editorial board wrote on Monday that if Fetterman isnt able to debate Oz, it should raise serious questions about whether hes up for the task of being a U.S. senator.

Its a challenging situation to discuss sensitively, and Ozs campaign definitely hasnt always done that, but Fettermans health could be a real liability for him this fall. Fetterman, for the record, told Politico on Wednesday that he plans to debate Oz.

geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, no one should be writing off Oz. Besides the fact that Pennsylvania has a slight Republican lean, its possible Oz could better consolidate support among Republicans and move into a more competitive position in the coming weeks.

Two recent polls from Emerson College and Susquehanna Polling and Research found that Republican voters were likelier to be undecided than Democrats, so if those voters come home to Oz, the race could get a lot tighter. Both of those polls also found a closer race than our polling average, instead finding Fetterman with a 4- to 5-point edge.

sarah: But OK. The two Senate races weve talked about so far are in states where Republicans currently have control. Lets talk about some of their best pickup opportunities, starting with Georgia.

alex: I know some recent polls have given Republican Herschel Walker a slight edge over Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, but I think itll be hard to take down the incumbent. For one, Walker has been dogged with not-so-great headlines that suggest he did not disclose all of his children, despite previously chastising absent Black fathers. He also has exaggerated his business and academic record. Moreover, Warnock has continued to be a fundraising behemoth, raising more than $17 million in the second-quarter of the year, compared with Walkers $6.2 million.

This race is tricky, though, because the national environment will probably be better for the GOP and Walker is relatively well liked in the state.

nrakich: If Republicans want to win the Senate, they basically have to defeat Warnock. Case in point: According to the build-your-own version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, if Democrats win Georgia, they have a 91 percent chance of holding the Senate:

Put another way, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast, Georgia also has a 15 percent chance of being the tipping-point state in the Senate, or the state that decides control of the chamber which is more than the tipping-point odds of any other state in our forecast.

geoffrey.skelley: Theres a real push and pull here with Georgia, though. The state obviously is more politically competitive now than its been in a long time, which is helpful to Warnock. He is also a decently popular senator who could benefit at least a little bit from incumbency.

However, Georgia is also a state with a racially polarized electorate that is, as we say, highly inelastic because it just doesnt have a lot of swing voters. Historically, when major races like Senate and governor are on the ballot at the same time in Georgia, they usually wind up with pretty similar results. So with Republican Gov. Brian Kemp ahead by about 5 points in the polls and Warnock leading by roughly 2 points, that 7-point gap would be an especially large gap between the two contests if it holds.

And thats a big if. Im inclined to think the races will converge as we get closer to November. And whether Kemp or Warnock loses ground is very important to keep an eye on. As things currently stand, Warnock needs some Kemp voters in order to win reelection, and given how polarized Georgias electorate is, Im not sure there will be a ton of those.

sarah: The one thing I think thats a little challenging with Georgia is how much its shifted toward Democrats. In other words, a lot could come down to turnout, and it looks as if enthusiasm (on both sides of the aisle) might be high again this year.

alex: If Kemp has a strong performance against his Democratic opponent, Stacey Abrams, could he help pull Walker across the finish line, Geoffrey?

geoffrey.skelley: Alex, thats a difficult question to answer. Kemp is pretty popular, so he can definitely help buoy the GOP ticket. Ultimately, I dont think the Senate and gubernatorial races are going to completely converge, but if its a difference of 2 to 3 points by Election Day, thats probably good news for Walker, whereas if its like 5 points or more, thats good news for Warnock.

alex: Its also possible that we get another runoff! Another candidate on the ballot Libertarian Chase Oliver could siphon off votes from both candidates, and if neither clears 50 percent of the vote in November, the top two vote-getters will go head-to-head on Dec. 6.

geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, the Senate race looks to have about a 1-in-5 shot of going to a runoff. The forecast gives a slight edge to Walker in a runoff, but we obviously saw Democrats win both Senate runoffs in January 2021 by running ahead of where they were in the November vote, which was at odds with most of Georgias recent electoral history, so it would be far from a sure thing for the GOP.

sarah: Lets talk about Nevada, the other Senate race Republicans are heavily targeting as a pickup opportunity. Is Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, like Warnock, perhaps in trouble?

alex: There are plenty of reasons to believe this race might not be as safe for Democrats as some polls suggest. For one, as weve reported before, Nevada is a pretty transient state, and according to The New York Times, the states share of registered Democrats has dropped. Moreover, Biden won Nevada by only a little over 2 points in 2020, so its very possible that Republicans do better here in a favorable midterm year. The COVID-19 pandemic and the business shutdowns that came with it were also particularly devastating to Nevadas tourism industry. That, plus low approval ratings for Biden, have definitely put Cortez Masto on the defensive.

nrakich: Yeah, she is actually the second-most vulnerable Democrat after Warnock, per our forecast. She has just a 63-in-100 chance of winning.

sarah: And, as Alex said, Nevada is maybe more challenging for Democrats than they realize, since it has been shifting away from Democrats in recent presidential elections.

geoffrey.skelley: Nevada definitely has a couple trends potentially working in the GOPs favor. For instance, Latino voters shifted to the right in 2020, although it varied from place to place. But still, Nevada has a sizable Latino population, and moreover, only a small share of Nevadas white population has a four-year college degree, which is significant considering that we know education is a big dividing line among white voters, with non-college-educated whites moving toward Republicans.

alex: Ill be curious to see which way Latino voters in the state swing, though, Geoffrey. Whats working in the GOPs favor is that Trump gained support among Latino voters, as you said; plus, like the rest of the country, inflation and concerns about the economy continue to be a top concern among Latino voters. If Republican Adam Laxalt can tap into that disillusionment and discontent, hell definitely make the race more competitive. But Cortez Masto, the first Latina to serve in the U.S. Senate, so far has a slight edge with Latino voters in the state, according to one poll.

sarah: What do we know about Laxalt as a candidate? We talked about this a little with Georgia and Pennsylvania, but part of the problem for Republicans in the Senate this cycle seems to be an issue of candidate quality. Does Laxalt fit into this mold?

nrakich: Not really, Sarah. He has some extreme views, like believing the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. But unlike Walker and Oz, he has experience as an elected official he won the Nevada attorney generals office in 2014.

geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, Laxalt is probably one of the least problematic candidates the GOP has nominated. He has an electoral track record, as Nathaniel mentioned, for one thing.

alex: Im curious how much the Dobbs decision will play a role in whether Cortez Masto ultimately prevails. Shes reportedly telling voters that a GOP-led Senate could lead to a national law banning abortions, and polls suggest that Nevadans also favor abortion rights at higher rates than the national average.

Per a July survey from The Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights, roughly 90 percent of the states registered voters believe abortions should be legal at least some cases. It also found that abortion rights were the most motivating issue to 17 percent of the states voters second only to the economy, at 40 percent.

sarah: There are two more Senate races we should talk about: Arizona and New Hampshire. Theyre also pick-up opportunities for the GOP, although perhaps a little bit more of a stretch for Republicans, at least according to the forecast. Republicans have about a 1-in-4 shot of winning Arizona and a 1-in-5 shot of winning New Hampshire.

So uh, what do we make of the Senate race in Arizona?

geoffrey.skelley: Blake Masters won the GOP primary with Trumps backing and millions of dollars in support from billionaire tech megadonor Peter Thiel. But Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has regularly led in the polls, where he currently has an 8-point lead.

Kelly has a combination of things working for him at the moment. First, hes raised a prodigious amount of money that Masters simply cannot match on his own. In fact, this has created conflicts within the GOP, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell wants Thiel to keep spending money on Masterss behalf, but so far, Thiel appears unwilling. Second, Kelly seems to be winning at least a small portion of Republican voters in Arizona, and he leads among independents as well. A Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research poll from last month found Kelly attracting about 10 percent of GOP voters, which would make him tough to beat if that comes to pass.

alex: Whats interesting to me about this race is that, on paper, it should be an easy get for Republicans. Kelly won the special election that got him into Congress in 2020 by 2 points, and Biden barely eked out a win that same year. But I think candidate quality will definitely play a role in this race, and Masters is carrying a lot of baggage. Just to name a few things: He once said that Black people, frankly are to blame for gun violence in the U.S., has promoted the debunked great replacement theory and once argued that Iraq and al-Qaida did not constitute substantial threats to Americans.

geoffrey.skelley: Some of this is stuff Masters said when he was younger, but I suspect part of the issue is that hes only 36 years old, so these controversial comments are not really that far in the past!

nrakich: Yeah, I feel more confident in the forecasts prediction of a Kelly win in Arizona than, say, Fetterman in Pennsylvania. Kelly has a kings ransom in campaign cash (hes raised more than $54 million), and the polls in Arizona in 2020 were pretty accurate.

sarah: OK, that leaves us with one last state to discuss: New Hampshire. The primary there hasnt yet happened yet, but how are things looking for Republicans?

nrakich: New Hampshire is the least competitive of the races weve discussed here, and honestly, its hard to see it flipping unless Republicans have already flipped places like Georgia and Nevada. Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan has an 80-in-100 chance of winning.

One complication here is that New Hampshire hasnt held its primary yet, as you noted, Sarah, and it looks like far-right candidate Don Bolduc could defeat more establishment-flavored state Senate President Chuck Morse.

Consider that the latest poll from the University of New Hampshire, conducted in late August, gave Bolduc 43 percent and Morse 22 percent. Since then, the establishment Republicans have spent heavily on Morses behalf, so the final result could be tighter. But if Republican primary voters elect Bolduc, Republican party leaders could write off New Hampshire completely.

alex: Republicans seem to have struggled to find a likable, well-known candidate who everyone could coalesce around especially after Gov. Chris Sununu decided against running for U.S. Senate and instead decided to seek reelection.

An August survey by Saint Anselm College Survey Center found that 39 percent of Republican voters were still undecided ahead of next weeks primary. But, similar to Arizona, I think this could be an easier pickup opportunity for Republicans: Per the poll, Hassan has an underwater approval rating in the state 44 percent who approve versus 51 percent who disapprove, with only 39 percent saying she deserved to be reelected.

geoffrey.skelley: We do have some recent evidence, though, that Democrats can win a Senate race in New Hampshire even in a bad midterm. Take Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. She held onto her seat in 2014 despite a red wave.

sarah: OK, phew weve run down six of the big Senate races this year. What are folks concluding thoughts on the GOPs path to winning back the Senate or Democrats chances to holding on?

alex: This should be an easy year for Republicans, but problematic candidates with little to no political experience may well cost the party their chances of winning the chamber back.

nrakich: Completely agreed about the weaker candidates, but Im also struck by the tough path Republicans have to picking up even one seat. They need to defeat at least one of what looks like a formidable quartet in Warnock, Kelly, Cortez Masto and Hassan, while also not losing any of their own seats.

Thats hard to do, so I think the FiveThirtyEight forecasts current estimation of a 70 percent chance of a Democratic hold sounds right to me.

geoffrey.skelley: Republicans may have an uphill battle to a Senate majority, considering the political environment isnt proving to be as advantageous for the GOP as we might have expected (at least so far). Theyve also nominated some weaker candidates, as Alex mentioned.

Still, I think theres reason to believe some of these races, like Arizona and Pennsylvania, are going to be closer than they currently appear to be. Our forecast definitely keeps that in mind, too. Its why Id love to see more polls, especially in Wisconsin.

More polls, please the constant FiveThirtyEight refrain.

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What Is Republicans Path To Winning The Senate? - FiveThirtyEight