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In this issue: Takeaways from five states primaries and former V.P. Pence to campaign for Kemp

Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Oregon held primaries on May 17.

Pennsylvania Senate: As of Thursday morning, the race remained too close to call. Mehmet Oz led with 31.2% of the vote, while David McCormick received 31.1% and Kathy Barnette received 24.7%. Seven candidates ran in the primary. Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not run for re-election.

Under state law, any election with a vote margin within 0.5% is subject to an automatic recount. If applicable, the secretary of state must order the recount by May 26. It must start by June 1 and be completed by June 7.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Oz in April. Former candidate Sean Parnell, whom Trump initially endorsed before Parnell withdrew, endorsed McCormick. On May 12, Trump issued a statement opposing Barnette, who rose in recent polls.

Three independent race forecasters rate the general election either Toss-up or Tilt Republican.

North Carolinas 11th: State Sen. Chuck Edwards defeated incumbent Madison Cawthorn and six others in the Republican primary for North Carolinas 11th Congressional District. Eight candidates were on the ballot. Edwards received 33.4% of the vote to Cawthorns 31.9%.

Cawthorn is the second U.S. representative to seek re-election and lose a primary this year. Rep. David McKinley (R) lost to Rep. Alexander Mooney (R) in West Virginias 2nd Congressional District. The two ran in the same district following redistricting. In addition, Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) remained on the ballot in Ohios 7th District after he unofficially withdrew. Max Miller won that primary. Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) of Oregons 5th is trailing challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner as of Thursday morning and may become the third House member to lose a re-election bid.

Trump endorsed Cawthorn on March 31. Following Cawthorns claims in late March 2022 that Washington lawmakers hold orgies and use cocaine, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) endorsed Edwards.

Three independent forecasters rate the general election either Safe or Solid Republican.

Pennsylvania Governor: State Sen. Doug Mastriano won against eight candidates. Mastriano received 44% of the vote. Former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta was second with 20%.

Mastriano campaigned on his opposition to COVID-19 measures and said he would defend election integrity. Mastriano said voting fraud was prevalent in the 2020 election. On Feb. 15, the U.S. House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach subpoenaed Mastriano, citing a November 2020 tweet and his presence outside the Capitol on the day of the breach. Trump endorsed Mastriano on May 14.

The 2022 primary featured the largest number of candidates in a Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial primary since at least 1978. Incumbent Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited. Forecasters view the general election as a Toss-up or Tilt or Lean Democratic.

Idaho Governor: Incumbent Gov. Brad Little defeated seven other candidates. Little received 53% of the vote to Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachins 32%.

According to the Idaho Presss Betsy Russell, a lieutenant governor hadnt challenged an incumbent governor in a primary in Idaho since 1938. Idaho is one of 17 states where the lieutenant governor is elected separately from the governor instead of on the same ticket.

Trump endorsed McGeachin in the primary. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund and the Idaho Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Little.

Twice in 2021, McGeachin issued executive orders related to COVID-19 measures while Little was out of state. The first banned mask mandates. The second expanded a prohibition against state entities requiring vaccination or testing. Little rescinded both orders when he returned to Idaho.

Independent forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican.

Weve been tracking Trumps 2022 endorsements. The May 17 primary results (so far) bring Trumps primary endorsement record to 73 wins (96%) and 3 losses. Aside from McGeachin and Cawthorn, Nebraska gubernatorial endorsee Charles Herbster lost last week.

U.S. Senate

U.S. House

At least 30 state legislatorseight Democrats and 22 Republicanslost in primaries on May 17. Including those defeats, 44 state legislative incumbents have lost to primary challengers this year. This number will likely increase: there are 42 primaries or primary runoffs featuring incumbents that remain uncalled or undecided.

Across the nine states that have held primaries, 4.7% of incumbents running for re-election have lost.

That 4.7% loss rate is the highest compared to previous cycles in these nine states. In 2020, 3.3% of incumbents running for re-election lost primaries. In 2018, 4.3% lost in primaries.

Of the nine states that have held primaries so far, one had a Democratic trifecta, five had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these nine states, 1,114 seats are up for election, 18% of the nationwide total.

The Washington Examiners Kate Scanlon wrote about Mastrianos perceived gubernatorial general election prospects:

Trump offered his endorsement to Mastriano on Saturday after it became clear he was the front-runner in the race. The move was seen as a hedge, as Trumps selection for the Senate, television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, was in a tight three-way race with businessman David McCormick and conservative commentator Kathy Barnette, who surged in polling in the final days of the race. Barnette and Mastriano ran campaigns in tandem, endorsing one another.

Some state Republicans were concerned Mastriano would hurt Republicans chances of winning not just the governors mansion but the Senate race and some congressional contests. They attempted to coalesce the field around former Rep. Lou Barletta, arguing he was better positioned to defeat Shapiro in November.

Politicos David Siders said Mastrianos prospects may be better than some observers think, referencing Trumps performance in the state:

Everything about Pennsylvanias swing state electorate suggests Mastriano is a dead man walking.

Except for this: Lots of Republicans and Democrats alike felt exactly the same way about Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential primary, back when establishment Republicans were praying for anyone other than Trump to win the nomination and some of Hillary Clintons advisers were salivating over the prospect of running against Trump. The climate for Democrats in this midterm election year is no better than it was then. In fact, its worse. And Pennsylvania is a swing state for a reason. Trump only lost Pennsylvania by about 80,000 votes in 2020. He won the state four years earlier.

Fox News Paul Steinhauser described what he saw as both the strength and limitation of Trumps influence in Tuesdays primaries:

The [Senate primary in Pennsylvania] is proving another test of Trumps immense sway over the GOP. Sixteen months removed from the White House, the former president remains the most popular and influential politician in the Republican Party as he plays a kingmakers role in this years primaries and repeatedly flirts with another presidential run in 2024.

Trump was a winner in Pennsylvanias GOP gubernatorial primary, as state Sen. Doug Mastriano bested a crowded field of contenders. Mastriano was already the polling front-runner when the former president endorsed him on Saturday.

Trump was also a big winner in North Carolinas Republican Senate primary in another crucial race in a general election battleground where the GOPs defending an open seat.

Trumps clout couldnt pull controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorne over the top in the Republican primary in North Carolinas 11th Congressional District, however. Even with Trumps backing in the final days heading into the primary, Cawthorne whos made plenty of enemies in the GOP in his short year and a half on Capitol Hill came up short to state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who enjoyed the backing of many of the partys establishment.

In Idaho, far-right Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin handily lost her bid to oust incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little. Trump endorsed McGeachin last autumn, but did little to actively support her.

Alaska Survey Research published the first poll weve seen of Alaskas top-four U.S. House special primary. The poll included 12 of the 48 candidates by name.

Weve colored in the names below based on party affiliation (blue for Democrats, red for Republicans, and gray for independents). Affiliation was not included in the poll.

The polls margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points.

Former Governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), and 2020 U.S. Senate candidate Al Gross (I) top the results. A cluster of candidates are within the margin of error for fourth place, including North Pole City Councilmember Santa Claus (I), former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D), Anchorage Assemblymember Christopher Constant (D), former Assistant Secretary of the Interior Tara Sweeney (R), and state Sen. Josh Revak (R).

Sweeney and Revak co-chaired former Rep. Don Youngs (R) statewide re-election campaign. Young died in March.

The special primary is June 11, and the special general election is Aug. 16. The regularly scheduled primary will also be held Aug. 16.

In addition to top-four primaries, Alaska will use ranked-choice voting for both general elections.

Alaska Survey Research tested four general election scenarios. Each included Begich, Gross, and Palin, with someone different in the fourth spot. In each RCV simulation, Begich and Gross were left standing in the 3rd round, with Begich taking a majority.

On Saturday, the Minnesota Republican Party endorsed Scott Jensen for governor. According to the Star Tribune, it was a heated endorsement fight that started with a crowded field of contenders and featured multiple rounds of balloting. Kendall Qualls, who finished second in the voting, announced after the GOP convention that he was dropping out of the race.

Jensen, a physician who served in the state Senate from 2017 to 2021, has campaigned on his opposition to vaccine and mask requirements.

Gov. Tim Walz (D) is seeking re-election. The primaries are Aug. 9.

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R) announced hell be campaigning for Gov. Brian Kemp (R) at a rally on May 23. Pence said Kemp is one of the most successful conservative governors in America.

Kemp faces former U.S. Sen. David Perdue (R) and three others in the May 24 primary. Trump endorsed Perdue in December, saying, Kemp has been a very weak Governorthe liberals and RINOs have run all over him on Election Integrity, and more.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitutions Greg Bluestein said Pences upcoming rally appearance illustrates a growing proxy fight in Georgia between establishment forces backing Kemp and the Trump loyalists who want to remake the state Republican Party in the former presidents mold. Bluestein said Pences endorsement deepen[ed] a split with Donald Trump as each maneuvers for a possible 2024 White House run.

Pences announcement followed news that Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), and former President George W. Bush (R) would campaign for Kemp. Ricketts and Ducey are co-chairmen of the Republican Governors Association (RGA), and Christie is a former RGA chairman.

Alabama holds primaries on May 24. Weve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

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Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 23 (May 19, 2022) Ballotpedia News - Ballotpedia News

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) called on her Republican colleagues on Thursday to denounce the great replacement theory, which sprung into the national spotlight this week after a gunman who allegedly espoused the racist conspiracy shot 13 people in Buffalo, N.Y., 11 of whom were Black.

Some former President Trump-aligned Republicans have come under fire in the wake of the shooting, which killed 10, for past comments implying that Democrats and other top figures have tried to empower minorities through immigration policy at the expense of white individuals.

Pelosi speaking at a press conference on the steps of the Capitol alongside members of the congressional Black, Asian and Hispanic caucuses said violence must be stopped and emphasized the Democratic push for firearm background checks, before asserting that current circumstances are being compounded by the replacement theory.

Its an extremely alarming and despicable idea and it must be rejected by anyone who claims to embrace our American ideals, Pelosi said. Its spread by social media algorithms where people find people who think the way they do, in an evil way, promoted on top television networks yes, it is.

She then turned to her colleagues across the aisle.

And tragically, as has been mentioned here by leading political figures. Why isnt everyone in this Congress saying I reject replacement theory? Pelosi said, eliciting applause from the Democrats surrounding her.

House GOP leadership rebutted allegations hurled by Democrats that accused their rhetoric of contributing to white supremacy following the Buffalo shooting, regarding them as all politics. Rank-and-file members of the conference also dismissed accusations that leadership was entertaining white nationalism.

But while Democrats have been vocal in their vehement opposition to the right-wing theory, Republicans for the most part have been silent on the topic.

And on Wednesday night, nearly all House Republicans voted against the Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act, which leadership brought up in the aftermath of the shooting. President Biden on Tuesday called the deadly attack domestic terrorism.

The bill passed in a 222-203 vote, with only one Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) supporting the measure.

Pelosi, during her weekly press conference earlier on Thursday, commented on the GOPs opposition to the bill, saying Republicans dont even vote for domestic terrorism prevention.

Isnt that sad? she added.

Pelosi on Thursday, during remarks from the steps of the Capitol, tied the conspiracy to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, saying the riot had the same racist elements to it and replacement theory background to it.

America, open your eyes to this hateful replacement theory that is taking lives and taking a toll on the spirit of democracy in our country, she later added, after reading a section of the poem I Have No Other Country by Israeli poet Ehud Manor.

See the article here:
Pelosi calls on Republicans to denounce great replacement theory - The Hill

In the era of Donald Trump, a major plank of the modern Republican Party platform is outright racism. Whether its the leader of the free world telling four congresswomen of color to go back to the totally broken and crime-infested places from which they came, a U.S. senator saying he wasnt afraid of the January 6 rioters but would have been worried if they were Black Lives Matter protesters, a U.S. congresswoman speaking at event put on by a white nationalist, the complete and total hysteria over the idea of children being taught about systemic racism, or a prime-time conservative hosts regular white-power hour, this hateful little ecosystem just loves to appeal to the lowest common denominator by demonizing anyone who isnt white. But when their actions actually have consequences? And it turns out their hate speech matters? And people have the audacity to suggest theyre part of the problem? Well, they really get their noses out of joint.

Take, for instance, New York representative Elise Stefanik. Following the horrifying mass shooting in a Buffalo grocery store that left 10 dead after a gunman allegedly targeted Black people, The Washington Post and other outlets thought it was important to note that Stefanik, the third-ranking House Republican, among other conservatives, had previously echoed the great replacement rhetoric (the conspiracy theory that liberal politicians are trying to replace white Americans with nonwhite immigrants). In a series of Facebook ads highlighted in a tweet Saturday by Representative Adam Kinzinger, Stefaniks campaign claimed in September 2021 that Democrats were letting undocumented immigrants into the country in an attempt to ultimately silence Republican (read: white) voters. Radical Democrats are planning their most aggressive move yet: a PERMANENT ELECTION INSURRECTION, reads one of the ads, with an accompanying image of migrants reflected in Joe Bidens sunglasses. Their plan to grant amnesty to 11 MILLION illegal immigrants will overthrow our current electorate and create a permanent liberal majority in Washington. At the time they ran, Albanys Times Union, the congresswomans hometown paper, called the ads despicable, and blasted her in an editorial, writing that she isnt so brazen as to use [Nazi-inspired] slogans themselves; rather, she couches the hate in alarmist anti-immigrant rhetoric thats become standard fare for the party of Donald Trump. As The New York Times reported over the weekend, Payton Gendron, the 18-year-old white suspect in the Buffalo shooting, had posted a hate-filled manifesto online, in which he wrote of his plan to shoot Black shoppers and went on racist, anti-immigrant rants arguing that white Americans are at risk of being replaced by people of color. Kind of like the ads run by one Elise Stefanik!

The congresswoman, though, did not appreciate any insinuation whatsoever that someone might have actually taken her words to heart, and in a statement released on Sunday, a senior adviser, Alex deGrasse, insisted that the implication or attempt to blame the heinous shooting in Buffalo on the congresswoman is a new disgusting low for the Left, their Never Trump allies, and the sycophant stenographers in the media. The shooting was an act of evil and the criminal should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. He added, Despite sickening and false reporting, [the] congresswoman has never advocated for any racist position or made a racist statement, a claim that is obviously not true at all. On Monday, Team Stefanik followed that up with a press release accusing the media of disgraceful, dishonest, and dangerous smears.

Stefanik, of course, is far from the only member of her party to push racist rhetoric intended to rile up the base. As the Post notes, Pennsylvania Republican representative Scott Perry, current chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus,saidduring a subcommittee hearing concerning migration from Central America last year that many Americans believe were replacing national-born Americannative-born Americansto permanently transform the political landscape of this very nation. Senator Ron Johnson has suggested that Democrats want to remake the demographics of America to ensure theirthat they stay in power forever. Texas lieutenant governor Dan Patrick has declared that the revolution has begun and Democrats are trying to take over our country without firing a shot by allowing immigrants to enter the country who will vote for Democrats to thank the Democrats and Biden for bringing them here. Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance has claimed Democrats want to let in 15 million immigrants into the U.S. to shiftthe democratic makeup of this country so Republicans [will] never win a national election in this country ever again.

And, of course, we cant forget the fear-mongering, hateful commentary that appears on Fox News on a daily basis, which has included Laura Ingrahams claim that Democrats want to replace you, the American voters, with newly amnestied citizens and an ever-increasing number of chain migrants; Jeanine Pirros that Democrats immigration policies are a plot to remake America, to replace American citizens with illegals who will vote for the Democrats; and basically everything that comes out of Tucker Carlsons mouth

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Republicans Are Furious People Remember Theyve Been Pushing the Racist Great Replacement Rhetoric for Years - Vanity Fair

DES MOINES, Iowa Five Iowa House Republicans received money from theIowa State Education Association (ISEA) PACin January, right before the start of the 2022 legislative session, according to their campaign finance disclosure statements.

The Iowa House of Representatives and Iowa Senate remain deadlocked overSF 2369, a bill that would create an education savings account program capped at 10,000 students. The ESAs are called Student First Scholarships and are one of Gov. Kim Reynolds top priorities.

The Student First Scholarships would be implemented during the 2022-2023 school year. Scholarships would be worth 70 percent of the states per-pupil spending, currently $5,359, for qualified education expenses defined in the bill, such as non-public school tuition, textbooks, curriculum, tutoring, non-public online education, and vocational education.

A student must be enrolled in a public school for the 2021-22 school year and have a household income that does not exceed 400 percent of the federal poverty level or have an individualized educational plan to be eligible. The scholarships in the first year will be capped at 10,000.

The remaining 30 percent will be reallocated to school districts that participate in operational sharing among districts.

The Iowa Senatepassed the bill in March. However, the Iowa House has not voted on the bill and is the primary reason the legislature is still in session into mid-May.

The Iowa State Education Association has been firmly against school choice measures and is registered opposed to SF 2369. The Iowa Torch checked the campaign financial disclosure statements of every Iowa House Republican and found five who received money from the ISEA PAC.

The Iowa House Republican receiving the largest donation from ISEA PAC was the Iowa House Education Committee Chair, State Rep. Dustin Hite, R-New Sharon,who received $2500 on January 9, 2022.

Hite is being challenged in the newIowa House District 88in the June 7 Republican Primary by Helena Hayes of New Sharon, endorsed by The FAMiLY Leader on Thursday.

State Rep. Megan Jones, R-Sioux Rapids,received $1000 from ISEA PAC on January 7, 2022. She is running in the newIowa House District 6and is running unopposed in the June 7 Republican primary.

State Rep. Brent Siegrist, R-Council Bluffs,received $1000 from ISEA PAC on January 9, 2022. He is not running for re-election.

State Rep. Brian Lohse, R-Bondurant,received $500 from ISEA PAC on January 6, 2022. He is running unopposed in the Republican primary in the newIowa House District 45.

State Rep. Jane Bloomingdale, R-Northwood,received $500 from ISEA PAC on January 6, 2022. Bloomingdale has a primary challenger in the newIowa House District 60. Deb Hild of Clear Lake is attempting to unseat her for the Republican nomination.

Read more:
Five Iowa House Republicans took money from teachers' union PAC - The Iowa Torch

The massacre by a white supremacist gunman of Black shoppers at a Buffalo grocery store has drawn renewed scrutiny of Republican figures in the US who have embraced the racist great replacement theory he is alleged to have used as justification for the murders.

Born from far-right nationalism, the extremist ideology expounding the view that immigration will ultimately destroy white values and western civilization has found favor not only with media figures, such as the conservative Fox News host Tucker Carlson, but a host of elected politicians and others seeking office.

Those who have convinced themselves Democrats are operating an open-door immigration policy to replace Republican voters with people of color and keep themselves in power permanently include Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, chair of her partys House conference, and JD Vance, the Donald Trump-approved Republican nominee to represent Ohio in the US Senate.

After the Buffalo shooting, the pair are among those receiving blowback for embracing the conspiracy theory that the killer referred to repeatedly in an online manifesto authorities believe he posted to justify the attack.

Citing despicable Facebook advertisements promoting great replacement theory Stefanik utilized in 2021, in which she said radical Democrats are planning their most aggressive move yet: a permanent election insurrection, the Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger blasted his House colleague.

Did you know: @EliseStefanik pushes white replacement theory? The #3 in the house GOP @Liz_Cheney got removed for demanding truth. @GOPLeader should be asked about this, he said in a tweet, referring to Wyoming Republican Cheneys ousting by the House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, over her place on the 6 January panel.

Kinzinger, of Illinois, is the only other Republican on the House committee looking into Donald Trumps efforts to overturn his election defeat to Joe Biden. He also attacked Stefanik this week for a tweet in which she accused Democrats of being pedo grifters meaning pedophiles for providing baby formula for immigrant babies at the southern border during a national shortage.

Meanwhile Vance, who credits the former presidents endorsement for helping him to victory in last weeks Ohio primary, is another vocal exponent of the discredited theory.

Youre talking about a shift in the democratic makeup of this country that would mean we never win, meaning Republicans would never win a national election in this country ever again, he claimed at a campaign event in Portsmouth last month.

Josh Mandel, who was defeated by Vance, went even further in an interview on Breitbart in October.

This is about changing the face of America, figuratively and literally. They are trying to change our culture, change our demographics and change our electorate. This is all about power, he said, without acknowledging that only US citizens can vote, and the path to citizenship can take legal immigrants many years.

In a study of the history of great replacement theory in Republican circles, Vice notes that it isnt new to American politicians. In 2017, the Iowa congressman Steve King, a fierce Trump loyalist, said in a tweet: We cant restore our civilization with somebody elses babies.

Arguably the biggest rightwing apologist for great replacement theory, however, is Carlson, the Fox News host.

On his show last year, he stated: Demographic change is the key to the Democratic partys political ambitions. In order to win and maintain power, Democrats plan to change the population of the country.

His nefarious stance, the Washington Post columnist Greg Sargent wrote: exposes the ideological underbelly of the broader right-wing populist nationalist movement that he and his defenders champion.

Buffalo was not the first time a mass shooter with white supremacist motivations had cited great replacement theory. It also featured in the manifesto of a gunman who slaughtered 51 Muslims at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, in March 2019.

After the Christchurch murders, the UK-based Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), a counter-extremist organization, issued a report that found the once-obscure ideology was promoted so effectively by the far right that it became ingrained in political discourse, and that social media references doubled in four years to more than 1.5m Twitter mentions alone.

Its shocking to see the extent to which extreme-right concepts such as the great replacement theory and calls for remigration have entered mainstream political discourse and are now referenced by politicians who head states and sit in parliaments, Julia Ebner, the reports co-author, said at the time.

The effect of the backlash against US politicians promoting the theory following the Buffalo attack remains to be seen. The pugilistic Stefanik, for example, was not backing down on Sunday, making no mention of the massacre in her home state as she retweeted criticism of Democrats over the baby formula shortage.

Her only social media comment to date, a single tweet on Saturday, failed to acknowledge the race of most of the victims, or the circumstances or motivation for the shooting.

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Scrutiny of Republicans who embrace great replacement theory after Buffalo massacre - The Guardian US