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Last week, the Wisconsin Supreme Court chose political maps proposed by Republicans in the Legislature, entrenching the states extreme partisan gerrymander for another decade yet, for now, the maps are unlikely to create a veto-proof Republican majority and are still subject to legal challenges.

No matter what the courts do with the maps moving forward, however, they will be in place for this falls midterm elections where no matter how well Democrats do statewide in the races for governor and U.S. Senate, Republicans are expected to maintain their large majority in the Legislature. But, according to Marquette University research fellow John Johnson, the seats Republicans would have to win to override the veto pen of Democratic Governor Tony Evers, if he wins reelection, are unlikely to flip.

This, he says, is because rather than prioritizing the maps to get past the veto, Republicans focused on making sure vulnerable Republicans in districts that have changed demographically since the previous maps were set in 2011 remain in their seats.

A veto proof majority is unlikely and in fact if anything, even slightly less likely now than it was under the old maps, Johnson says. I suspect the Republican party recognized that its really unlikely youd have a scenario where theyd win a supermajority under any maps without also winning the governors seat. So without optimizing for a supermajority, they were shoring up Republican-held seats they were concerned were trending in the wrong direction.

According to a Marquette University analysis, under the new map Republicans are expected to increase their majority in the state Assembly from the current 61 seats to 63 three seats short of a 66 seats needed to claim a veto-proof, two-thirds majority

Johnson uses election results from the 2016 presidential election, 2018 gubernatorial election and 2020 presidential election to predict how the maps will play out. He says that in the 99 Assembly districts across the entire state, only three are truly competitive the 73rd and 74th districts in Northern Wisconsin near Superior, which are currently held by the retiring Reps. Nick Milroy (D-South Range) and Beth Meyers (D-Bayfield), and the 94th district near La Crosse, held by Rep. Steve Doyle (D-Onalaska).

The 66th seat Republicans would need to flip in order to gain a supermajority, Johnson says, is the 71st district near Stevens Point, which is held by Rep. Katrina Shankland and unlikely to be won by Republicans.

But the highly contentious maps are also likely to face legal challenges from voters who object to the way they handle minority voters around Milwaukee and the extreme partisan gerrymander it entrenches.

The state Supreme Court had initially selected maps proposed by Evers, which also leaned Republican but were more competitive than the 2011 maps or Republican legislators recent maps, which the court eventually chose. Evers maps also included seven majority Black districts in the Milwaukee area, one more than in the old maps. On an appeal from the Legislature, the U.S. Supreme Court said the state court didnt provide enough evidence for why the seven majority Black districts were required under the federal Voting Rights Act (VRA) and sent the case back, saying it needed to show why the seventh district was needed or choose a different map.

In his concurring opinion, conservative Justice Brian Hagedorn the crucial swing vote who initially sided with the courts liberals in picking Evers maps, then flipped once the U.S. Supreme Court sent those maps back to the state wrote that its possible the chosen maps wont survive a challenge under the VRA.

The record, such as it is, does not sufficiently support the conclusion that the Legislatures maps violate the VRA, he wrote. Perhaps a court deciding a VRA challenge on a more complete record would reach a different result. But I cannot conclude a violation is established based on the record we have before us. That means that in light of the Supreme Courts clarified instructions, the Legislatures state senate and state assembly maps are the only legally compliant maps we received.

Mel Barnes, an attorney for progressive legal group Law Forward, says there will likely be a challenge to the maps under the VRA and if successful the Milwaukee area districts would be redrawn even though Law Forward, which argued in the state lawsuit over the new maps, disagrees that the record was insufficient to prove the seventh district was required.

I think that Justice Hagedorn very much left the door open to a Voting Rights Act challenge here, she says. While we believe there was plenty of evidence in the record showing that those districts were required, the court has a responsibility to comply with the VRA in the maps it selects. The VRA is still the law of the land and I think that the court in this decision abdicated its responsibility to apply those protections.

I think the Wisconsin Legislatures decision to reduce the number of Black majority districts after the census data showed us the Black population grew is really indefensible, she continues. The Legislatures districts have very high percentages of Black voters in several of its districts and I think those districts could be challenged under the VRA in federal court.

There are also two federal court cases that were brought last year and put on hold while the state court chose the new maps. Barnes says that this week Law Forward attorneys told the federal courts it wants to keep those suits open while it strategizes for whats next.

She also says a lawsuit against the partisan gerrymander could still happen in the state court system. A federal challenge centered on partisan gerrymandering is impossible because the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that partisan issues are not a federal concern.

While the maps give Republicans a firm hold on the Legislature for the foreseeable future, Johnson says Wisconsin will change in unpredictable ways over the next decade. Suburban Milwaukee seats that were safely Republican in 2011 have now flipped, for example.

Gerrymanders grow stale over the course of a decade, he says. Its not actually predictable how the winds will change over the course of the decade. I expect us to be surprised by which seats are competitive in 2028.

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New maps unlikely to give Republicans veto-proof majority and open to voting rights challenges - Wisconsin Examiner

Protesters outside of an abortion clinic. Sarah McCammon/NPR hide caption

Even without the U.S. Supreme Court weighing in - and with Roe v. Wade still officially the law of the land - Republican lawmakers managed to shut down abortions in Kentucky for more than a week. That was until abortion rights advocates won a court order on Thursday allowing them to resume the procedure.

"This is where patients would come after their procedure," Tamarra Wieder, Kentucky state director for Planned Parenthood Advocates of Indiana and Kentucky, said on Wednesday as she stood behind an empty nurses' station in her Louisville health center. "Generally all of the beds would be full on a procedure day. There is nobody in here, and it has been empty since last week."

A 'temporary reprieve'

Abortion providers in Kentucky say they're now resuming abortion services after a federal judge issued the order temporarily blocking a new state law known as House Bill 3, which had halted abortions there since the middle of last week.

But they acknowledge it may be a fleeting victory and a preview of what's likely coming next, if the Supreme Court overturns Roe and other precedents guaranteeing abortion rights, as many observers expect.

"We know it's a temporary reprieve and it's heartbreaking to see how this is going to play out. You begin to feel the dominoes cascade," Wieder said. "It's not going to last long."

Tamarra Wieder testifies during a hearing on a bill that would ban abortion after 15 weeks at the Capitol Annex in Frankfort, Kentucky, on March 10, 2022. Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal/USA Today Network via Reuters hide caption

'Impossible' to comply

HB 3 includes a ban on abortion after 15 weeks, modeled after a Mississippi law that is currently before the Supreme Court, and includes layers of new regulations which clinics say are impossible to comply with on short notice. It took effect immediately under an emergency provision after Republican lawmakers voted to override Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear's veto on April 13.

Both of the two health centers that offer abortions in Kentucky said they had no choice but to shut down abortion services after the regulations took effect. Those regulations include rules for abortion pills and providers, requirements for collecting patient information, and regulations around the handling of fetal remains.

Heather Gatnarek is an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union of Kentucky, which represents the EMW Women's Surgical Center, also in Louisville. She said state health officials haven't had time to develop the necessary forms and other protocols for compliance.

"At this point, it's impossible for the clinic to comply or to take steps for compliance because we need things from the state of Kentucky that they haven't created yet," Gatnarek said.

Beshear called the new law an "unfunded mandate" because of the heavy role the state will need to play in complying with the regulations. But he said Kentucky health officials will comply if the courts ultimately uphold the law.

On Thursday afternoon, a federal judge issued an order temporarily blocking HB 3, after both the ACLU and Planned Parenthood filed federal lawsuits challenging it.

In a response filed earlier in the week, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a Republican, had argued that clinics are not required to "comply with forms and regulations that do not yet exist." But abortion providers disagreed with that interpretation, saying they can't take the risk of facing heavy fines, or jail time for violating some parts of it.

Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron speaks during a news conference in Frankfort, Ky. Timothy D. Easley/AP hide caption

Stopping abortion through bans or through rules

Republican state Rep. Nancy Tate, who opposes abortion rights, sponsored the proposal.

"People accuse me of trying to stop abortions, and personally, they're absolutely right," she said in an interview with NPR. "I would dearly love to stop abortions in the Commonwealth of Kentucky as well as everywhere else."

But until then, Tate argued the law would make patients safer. Abortion rights groups say the procedure already is heavily regulated, and that the law would only make it inaccessible.

The past week has been almost a trial run of what's likely ahead for many states with Republican-dominated legislatures, if the Supreme Court allows them to ban most or all abortions.

Abortion-rights opponents have employed a multi-pronged strategy designed to ban abortion as quickly and completely as the courts will allow, and to prepare for the anticipated Supreme Court ruling. This year, Republican lawmakers in states including Arizona, Florida, Idaho, and Oklahoma, have passed a wave of new abortion restrictions many modeled after those in Texas or Mississippi.

Since September, Texas Republicans have succeeded in blocking most abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy, under a new state law that relies on private citizens to enforce it through lawsuits.

Abortion-rights supporters chant their objections at the Kentucky Capitol on April 13, 2022 in Frankfort, Ky., as Kentucky lawmakers debate overriding the governor's veto of an abortion measure. Bruce Schreiner/AP hide caption

Abortion-rights supporters chant their objections at the Kentucky Capitol on April 13, 2022 in Frankfort, Ky., as Kentucky lawmakers debate overriding the governor's veto of an abortion measure.

The 'long game'

For patients in Louisville who were unable to obtain abortions in Kentucky in recent days, the nearest alternative was more than two hours away in Indiana. Planned Parenthood staff said appointments there were filling up fast in the days after HB 3 took effect.

Erin Smith is executive director of the Kentucky Health Justice Network, which spent more than $100,000 dollars last year helping low-income people pay for abortions, and travel. Smith said they're on pace to exceed those numbers this year, and thinking about new strategies for responding to an increasingly restrictive legal landscape around abortion.

"We are going to have to just restructure. We're going to have to think long game," Smith said. "We're going to have to make plans, like, hey, maybe we should charter a bus. Maybe it takes that."

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How Kentucky Republicans blocked all abortions for more than a week - NPR

North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) is not a good person.

For starters, hes a liar. During his 2020 campaign, he claimed that in 2014 he was on his way to the Naval Academy when a car crash left him paralyzed from the waist down. He has also noted that he was a successful businessman. But both claims were lies. Cawthorn had already been rejected from the Naval Academy before the car accident occurred and, according to tax records, the real-estate investment firm that he founded in 2019 claimed no income.

But that didnt matter to his constituents, who were pleased to elect the youngest member of Congress believing him to be an astute real estate businessman who was on his way to serving the country before an unfortunate twist of fate.

But Cawthorn didnt stop there. Since taking office, hes claimed that he was training for the 2020 Paralympic Games until his disability began to worsen, causing him to opt out. The problem with the statement is that no one in the Paralympics was familiar with Cawthorns possible participation. While the statement isnt necessarily false, its most likely untrue. Let me explain. Before I got married, I would tell women I was dating that I was well on my way to playing in the NBA until an unfortunate knee injury ruined my basketball dreams. If you asked anyone in the NBA, they would give you some of the same stunning, quizzical looks that Ketanji Brown Jackson gave during her Supreme Court confirmation hearing. But that doesnt mean I didnt believe that my training wasnt going to get me to the league.

My assessment of Cawthorn is not a personal reflection: One of the lawmakers former staff members has called him a bad person and a habitual liar.

As far as the candidate himself, I mean, hes just a bad person, former staffer Lisa Wiggins said in a secretly recorded phone call with David Wheeler, the president of a political action committee called Fire Madison Cawthorn.

Hes a habitual liar and hes going to say and do anything he can to your face but behind your back, hes completely opposite, she added.

Joe Raedle via Getty Images

Wiggins went on to note that his district office was littered with alcohol bottles and added that there was more liquor in his office than water, because he treats the place like a frat house.

Which is ironic, considering he was caught lying about Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) being an alcoholic when she doesnt even drink. And we cant forget the whale of a whopper (maybe?) he told about being invited to orgies and seeing Congress members doing cocaine in front of him. He was finally reprimanded for this statement by his fellow Republicans.

But heres the rub. Despite all of these tall tales that would likely sink a Democrats political future and all but ensure that they would be a one-term politician, Cawthorn is merely in a tight race for his seat.

This appears to be the way for the Republican Party: Candidates can be as vile, despicable, untrustworthy, horrid, deplorable, unpatriotic and whatever other adjectives one would use to describe Florida Sen. Ted Cruz, as they want while Democrats are forced to be the parents in the room. Currently, Democrats are facing tough questions around inflation, the war in Ukraine, gas prices, housing prices and climate change. As it stands, Republicans latest hustle appears to be blaming President Joe Biden for everything from Russias invasion of Ukraine (they claimed it only happened because Biden is weak) to high gas prices (hes holding back production of oil in the United States).

The shots against the president were so bad that Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) came to his defense after the House Republicans official Twitter account tweeted a photo of Biden walking away from a podium with the caption: This is what weakness on the world stage looks like.

Its not just an attempt to undermine the presidency. It falls in line with what appears to be the Republican agenda: tear the country apart while pushing wild conspiracy theories and manufactured beefs. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) has said that Muslims dont belong in government; mass shootings in Parkland, Sandy Hook and Las Vegas were staged; and California wildfires were not natural events but were actually started by secret Jewish space lasers and she believed all of this before she was elected to Congress.

Currently, the junior varsity Trump, Ron DeSantis, is in a fight with Disney over his states draconian and mind-numbingly stupid Dont Say Gay bill. While America has its eyes on the unprovoked war in Ukraine, the Florida governor is in an all-out war with The Greatest Place on Earth.

Because Congress is not a unified front, Democrats are busy governing the country and putting out Jewish laser forest fires that Republicans keep starting. Congress has never been a happy home, but what used to be outliers to a fundamental way of thinking have now become the basis of the aluminum foil party. Theyre wasting time fighting imaginary wars against so-called cancel culture (which does not exist) and wokeism, which for the uninitiated can easily be defined as anything that goes against GOP doctrine. By tearing down the fourth wall of decorum, Republicans have created a playroom that allows for meltdowns, temper tantrums, out-there theories and unsubstantiated statements, which enables them to be full-bodied politicians who can present however they choose.

The party that once prided itself as fiscally responsible or closer to God than the rest of us is now the party of insurrections, crusades against critical race theory and defending Russian President Vladimir Putin and they arent losing voters because of it. Its like one day the Republican party had a spine albeit a significantly crooked spine that pointed to archaic jurisprudence and racism but a spine nonetheless, and then Donald Trump took office and blunt, off-the-cuff, unadulterated and unfiltered soundbites became the new GOP.

This isnt the party that former president and GOP god Ronald Reagan exemplified; in fact, Reagan probably wouldnt sit at this Republican cafeteria table. But this is the shakily built political landscape that we live in, in which up is down and the right is allowed to be not only batshit crazy but potentially criminal.

Currently, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz is facing accusations that he had sex with a 17-year-old girl and engaged in sex trafficking. Not only has he not resigned from office, but hes one of the most outspoken politicians in Congress. Ohio Sen. Jim Jordans entire time in public office will forever be shrouded by the claims from former Ohio State wrestlers that, during his time as an assistant wrestling coach, Jordan knew that the student athletes were being sexually assaulted and did nothing to stop it. And dont forget that in 2018, Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore was so allegedly predatory that The New Yorker reported that he was banned from a local mall because he preyed on teens and he barely lost his election.

But Im sure there is an explanation as to how Republicans lost their moral compass. If we could only get access to Hillary Clintons emails or Hunter Bidens laptop, Im sure wed find it.

Continued here:
Republicans Temper Tantrums Should Hurt Them At The Ballot Box. Instead, Theyre Hurting Democrats. - HuffPost

Although analysts disagree on the magnitude of the coming Republican midterms rout, few believe that Democrats will retain their House majority. Despite a few losses during redistricting, Republicans need to net only five more seats to win the Speakers gavel.

The Senate landscape is a bit more uncertain for the GOP. Whereas Democrats are defending four incumbents in competitive seats, Republicans have two vulnerable incumbents and three open seats in states that could go either way. Former President Trumps controversial endorsements in some of these primaries may be dividing, more than uniting, Republicans, which could prove problematic come the November elections. Still, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is spending widely to maximize the chances of Senate Republicans netting the one more seat they need to make him the chambers majority leader.

But even if the Republicans win majority control in both chambers of Congress in November, what exactly will they have won?

Without question, Republicans will win the three most cherished legislative powers: control over the legislative agenda; committee chairmanships; and investigatory discretion. But they may get more than they bargain for, and Trumps power may grow in Washington, even in absentia.

This means that shortly after the new Congress is sworn into session, House Republicans are likely to shut down the Jan. 6 commission and launch an investigation into Hunter Bidens financial activities. Part of the purpose is to downplay the insurrectionist (and possibly criminal) activities of fellow Republicans, while attempting to normalize the allegations of nepotistic corruption by Trump with a whataboutism strategy for President Bidens family. Despite what House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) says, some Republicans are champing at the bit to impeach Biden to discredit him in advance of 2024.

This issue sheds light on McCarthys other problem. He believes winning will make him Speaker, but with the possibility of more far-right members joining his conference, his elevation to the position is likely to garner some challenges including perhaps, one from Mar-a-Lago. And even assuming McCarthy wins the gavel, a Republican majority with fewer institutionalists is likely to make controlling the agenda in the House difficult. Plenty of pests may spoil this partys unity picnic.

While a future Majority Leader McConnell will not likely be able to advance much policy in a closely divided Senate, the Republicans would be in position to obstruct, and possibly defeat, several of Bidens nominees to the federal courts. Still, herding McConnells conference around a single political agenda when Sen. Rick Scott of Florida has released his own proposals already and a few Trump-boosting senators (Ted Cruz of Texas, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Josh Hawley of Missouri and Tim Scott of South Carolina) may launch presidential runs, could prove exasperating at best.

And lets face it, neither McCarthy nor McConnell is currently well-regarded. According to a recent survey by The Economist-YouGov, they have higher net negative approval ratings (McCarthy is at -15 percent and McConnell is at -31 percent) than Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who is at -12 percent, and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who is at -8 percent. Do they believe that more high-profile obstructionism will make voters like their party more next year?

Further, if culture war issues are all that are on the Republicans policy agenda, will the public persist in blaming Biden and the Democrats first-year spending spree for high inflation and a faltering economy, or will they be reminded of why they wanted Trump out of the White House?

Republicans winning congressional majorities on the backs of conspiracy-believing populists who are committed to overturning the last election and working with like-minded state officials to rig future elections is not a positive outcome for the country even if you prefer conservative policies over liberal ones. Because, as Juleanna Glover and Kalee Kreider explained earlier this year, Whats really on the ballot isnt one party or another; its democracy itself.

But even aside from this high-minded appeal, the bizarre truth of the 2022 midterm elections is that the Republican Party may be better served by losing. Losing, which might be defined as giving up a couple more Senate seats to the Democrats and netting fewer than 20 House seats, likely would undercut Trumps boss-like power in the party and allow the GOP to position itself more favorably as the out-party in 2024.

It should be recalled that the shellacking the Republicans gave the Democrats in 2010 didnt help them secure the White House in 2012. McCarthy and McConnell may want to be careful what they wish for this November.

Lara M. Brown is director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University. Follow her on Twitter @LaraMBrownPhD.

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A GOP win is a loss for everyone including Republicans - The Hill

No one can say they werent properly informed. The Democrats weaponized impeachment, Ted Cruz said on his podcast earlier this year. They used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. Whats good for the goose is good for the gander. This reveals the underlying cynicism of these pending efforts. Republicans are warning in advance that this is all really just political payback for Trumps impeachments.

To some, this will look like standard operating procedure, GOP rule akin to what House Republicans did after retaking the chamber in 2010, when they quickly launched seemingly hundreds of bogus investigations aimed at weakening the Obama administration and, later, the Democrats expected 2016 nominee, Hillary Clinton. These inquiries, whether they were examining the Fast and Furious gun-walking scandal or the assault on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, were never really about uncovering the truth. They were about doing political damage and feeding red meat to the GOP base. Republican voters want their elected officials to wage total war on Democrats about the kinds of things that Carlson and other Fox News hosts whine about every evening. The Republican base is even more radical now than it was during the Obama years, when it stopped short of passing unwarranted articles of impeachment. Kevin McCarthy will wave through any move to impeach the president, however illegitimateand regardless of the chances of removal in the Senate. Otherwise, he would be ousted from his leadership role.

The distant silver lining is that all this may backfire. The good news for Democrats is that impeachment is one of the few processes in our politics in which the public has the time and space to truly deliberate on the merits and come to something resembling a reasoned assessment of the facts, wrote Paul Waldman in The Washington Post earlier this year. Impeaching Biden might ultimately rescue him from a public sentiment standpoint, particularly given how ridiculous such charges are likely to be.

See more here:
The Republicans Are Going to Spend Two Years Impeaching Joe Biden Over and Over Again - The New Republic