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Rep. Tom Rices (S.C.) loss to state Rep. Russell Fry last week marked the first primary defeat among the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump, invigorating other Trump-backed challengers as the political futures of four more incumbents who voted to impeach hang in the balance.

The marquee race will be Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) versus Trump-endorsed candidate Harriet Hageman, an attorney and former national committeewoman for the Republican National Committee who also has the support of more than 100 House Republicans, including Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.).

But before the Cheney-Hageman race on Aug. 16, primaries on Aug. 2 in Michigan and Washington state will test the strength of Trump endorsements against Reps. Peter Meijer (Mich.), Dan Newhouse (Wash.) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (Wash.).

Frys outright win of the vote in the solidly red South Carolina district encompassing Myrtle Beach came as a surprise to some political observers. Rice outraised Fry and spent nearly three times what Fry did on his campaign. Internal surveys from the Fry campaign and a Trafalgar poll showed Fry with double-digit leads over Rice, though not enough to avoid a runoff. But on primary day, he won 51 percent of the vote.

That could be a good sign for MAGA challengers in the four upcoming races, all of whom can point to bright spots in polls. But not all are well-positioned in terms of fundraising.

A January poll of Michigans 3rd Congressional District sponsored by the Democratic abortion rights group EMILYs List found former Trump political appointee John Gibbs with an initial 13 percent support to 26 percent for Meijer, who was elected in 2020.

But after being informed of Meijers impeachment vote and Trumps endorsement for Gibbs, Gibbs shot to the lead with 37 percent support to 19 percent for Meijer.

Getting that message out, however, takes money, and Meijer a member of the wealthy and recognizable family whose name is that of an eponymous supermarket chain is in a better financial position. He had $1.5 million in cash on hand at the end of the last reporting period on March 31, compared with $81,935 for Gibbs.

Still, the Gibbs campaign is incredibly confident, campaign manager Taylor Frasier said in a statement.

Like Tom Rice, Peter Meijer has been a rubber stamp for RINO Republicans his entire SHORT career, Frasier said.

Meijer, who will face a more Democratic-leaning district if he wins his primary, focused on his military service and legislative resume in his first campaign ad released last week, and is projecting confidence about the race.

Every district is different, every challenger is different But were very mindful of what weve seen in other races, Meijer told CNN following Rices loss last week.

Loren Culp, a former small-town police chief in Republic, Wash., is also severely lagging in fundraising in his race against incumbent Newhouse, despite an endorsement from Trump. Newhouse, who was first elected in 2014, had $928,319 in his campaign account as of the end of March, while Culp had just $23,544.

But internal polls from the Culp campaign make him optimistic about a path to victory.

The most recent poll from April by Spry Strategies found Culp leading the primary field with 28.1 percent support and Newhouse in second place with 22.6 percent support. That would push them to the general election due to Washingtons nonpartisan top-two primary system. Head-to-head, Culp led Newhouse 38.3 percent to 37.3 percent, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

The electorate is moving to the right and becoming more conservative in this already very conservative district, Culp said in a statement. This presents a problem for Mr. Newhouse because hes lost his base voters who supported Mr. Trump in the 2020 election.

Tom Rices race is very informative of what is going on across the country including right here in Washington State, Culp added.

Newhouse has mostly stayed out of the national spotlight and steered away from Trump-related topics. In a campaign video posted on the front page of his website, he used footage from an April appearance on Tucker Carlsons Fox News show talking about a bill to stop China from buying U.S. farmland.

The Trump-backed challenger in the other Washington race is in a much better financial position.

At the end of the last fundraising reporting period on March 31, retired Green Beret Joe Kent had $1 million, while Herrera Beutler, who was first elected in 2010, had $2 million.

A May poll from the Trafalgar Group found Kent leading the primary field with 27.6 percent to 21.9 percent for Herrera Beutler.

The Cheney-Hageman race will be the most watched and most expensive.

Two recent polls from PACs opposing Cheney show Hageman with a strong lead among likely Wyoming GOP primary voters.

A May 24-25 WPA Intelligence poll sponsored by Club for Growth PAC found Hageman with 56 percent support to 26 percent for Cheney. A June 1-2 poll by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates from Wyoming Values PAC similarly found Hageman at 56 percent support and Cheney at 28 percent.

Cheney, however, has been a fundraising giant. She raised $10.1 million for her race as of March 31 the seventh-highest sum of all House candidates and had $6.8 million in her campaign account.

Hageman has raised enough to be very impressive in a typical House race, but lags behind Cheney with $2 million raised and $1 million in the bank at the end of March. She is also being supported by several outside PACs, including the House Freedom Caucuss PAC.

This month, Cheney aired her first television ads, featuring testimonials from voters calling her a statesman and praising her commitment to working on legislation.

Hagemans ads have focused mostly on her Wyoming roots and President Biden rather than on her opponent.

One GOP member who voted to impeach Trump, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), did not have a Trump-endorsed primary challenger. Results for his June 7 top-two nonpartisan primary are still being counted, but he is currently in the lead among Republicans to face Democrat Rudy Salas in the general election.

Four of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach are not running for reelection: Reps. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), Anthony Gonzalez (Ohio), Fred Upton (Mich.) and John Katko (N.Y.).

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Challengers against pro-impeachment Republicans smell blood in the water - The Hill

Ramesh PonnuruBloomberg Opinion

President Joe Bidens job approval is lower than Barack Obamas or Donald Trumps at this point in their presidencies. Each of those predecessors saw his party lose control of the House of Representatives in his second year in office.

Midterm elections typically go badly for the party in power. Its opponents are aggrieved, its supporters disappointed at worst or complacent at best. But the Democrats are facing an additional challenge this year: an issue environment that accentuates their weaknesses.

Inflation is unquestionably the top issue for American voters right now. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 50% of voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on handling it, while only 31% had more faith in the Democrats. Its a big advantage, and its not a fluke.

Inflation has been dormant for a long time in the U.S.: ABC News had not conducted a poll on which party was most trusted on dealing with the problem since the George H. W. Bush administration. It turns out that the Republicans had roughly the same advantage 30 years ago, too.

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It may be, then, that Democrats arent just suffering because inflation has been high on their watch or even because Biden (like the Federal Reserve and many economists) clearly underestimated how long it would stay high. The public could just be primed to trust Republicans on the issue, the way its primed to trust Democrats on, say, Medicare.

Democrats are trying to build their own reputation as inflation-fighters presumably that is a key reason Biden wrote an op-ed about the subject for the Wall Street Journal but also want to get voters to put a higher priority on other issues that are more favorable to their party. Abortion and gun violence top that list.

The same ABC/Post poll found the Democrats with a 10-point advantage on abortion, and many polls suggest they are in sync with public opinion in seeking stricter regulation of guns. On both issues, however, intensity has often been on the side of conservatives.

Democrats are also eager to make a campaign issue out of former President Donald Trump, and his disgraceful effort to stay in power after losing the 2020 election. But this tactic failed last year in Virginia, where Trump is less popular than he is nationally. It seems unlikely that it is going to move voters more this fall.

Republicans, of course, can also try to elevate other issues. They have been blaming progressive prosecutors for rising rates of violent crime and for public disorder, and think San Franciscos recent recall of its district attorney illustrates the potency of this issue. (The ABC/Post poll found that Republicans have a 12-point advantage on crime.) They have also laid the groundwork to attack Bidens immigration policies if conditions at the U.S.-Mexico border get visibly worse.

The issues Republicans want to highlight inflation, crime, and illegal immigration all fit into a larger conservative story about government. Each of them involves a failure by the government at a core task: maintaining the value of the currency, suppressing violence, regulating the border.

They thus reinforce public suspicions about the competence of government and, therefore, about ambitious proposals for government-directed social change. They threaten the publics sense of stability, order and control the very things conservative politicians specialize in offering, if they can avoid coming across as radicals themselves.

Democrats spent several months trying to enact a Build Back Better agenda with high-flown rhetoric about a once-in-a-generation opportunity to enact transformational policies that lift up peoples lives. With voters upset about prices at the gas pump, that kind of talk now seems laughable. So, increasingly, does the prospect that Democrats will keep their majority in the US House.

Ramesh Ponnuru is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the editor of National Review and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

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The Republicans' three-pronged strategy to win back the House, by Ramesh Ponnuru - Press of Atlantic City

There are worrying signs that Democrats have been conditioned to believe that the key to their success comes through periodic collapsethat there is a perverse comfort to be taken in the courting of imminent disaster. At the moment, Democrats hopes for the midterms lie in the potential galvanization of voters that might (or might not) follow the gutting of reproductive freedom. And across the country, Democrats are trying to help extremist candidates win GOP primaries in the hopes that those candidates will be less competitive in the general elections. Larry Summers believes that whipping inflation will require higher unemployment rates, and Democrats are listening. Even the strange reluctance among national Democrats to rise to the defense of the LGBTQ community, amid the daily genocidal rhetoric of Republicans, suggests that theyre counting on some amount of mayhem to inspire a normalcy-inducing backlash. Its quite depressing to live in a political system where one party can only ascend to power on the backs of the victims the other party leaves behind.

Any solution must begin with a commitment to evening the asymmetries between the parties structure and strategies. Democrats need their own equivalent of the Federalist Society and their own plan to remake the judiciary and retrieve all the civil rights that are about to be stolen. They need to start staking out long-term transformative goals and define themselves in the same way the GOP has for generations, as a party with a wholesale commitment to a specific vision of the world. And they need to get their voters excited about casting their ballots at all levels of governmentand then embrace a politics that works harder between election days.

But more immediately, Democrats should stop talking about the GOP they wish existeda party that, in their imagining, up until recently was reasonable and only went astray when Trump came to powerand start talking in stark, unforgiving terms about the GOP that actually exists: a party that committed itself to the decades-long labor of fulfilling the very projects that now threaten to bring a new round of mayhem and harm. Its nice that voters seem to turn to Democrats whenever there is a multitude of casualties, but Democrats need to break this cycle if they ever want to possess the durable power necessary to reverse the maladies that will soon be unleashed.

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The Democrats Theory of Change: Wait for the Republicans to Screw Up - The New Republic

Republicans want you to believe that inflation in the United States is not part of a global problem but is 100% President Joe Bidens fault.

Just check out their recent over-the-top rhetoric. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., has blamed Biden for creating raging inflation. In a tweet, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, called inflation #BidenFlation, saying it was caused by Bidens policies. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., even made a speech on the Senate floor last week focused on inflation, in which he detailed the rising prices of goods, gas, etc., all leading to the crescendo that it was Biden and the Democrats' fault.

What the GOP has left out of all its speeches, television appearances and tweets slamming Biden is even a hint of a proposal to reduce prices.

But what the GOP has left out of all its speeches, television appearances and tweets slamming Biden is even a hint of a proposal to reduce prices. Even worse than the GOP not having a plan of its own, though, is Republicans determination to block Bidens efforts to help Americans. Theyve opposed his agenda to lower child care costs, create affordable housing and more. Biden made that very point in his June 14 speech about his plans to address inflation, in which he declared that Republicans in Congress are doing everything they can to stop my plans to bring down costs on ordinary families.

Theres no disputing that prices in our nation rose 8.6% in May since last year at that time, the highest rate since 1981. Food prices have risen over 10% since May 2021, and gas prices have skyrocketed. Just about everything we use on a daily basis costs more.

Biden candidly acknowledged this reality in last weeks speech, noting that inflation is sapping the strength of a lot of families. He said he understands firsthand what this is like, noting that when he was a child growing up in a blue-collar family, it mattered if the price of food went up.

A convergence of issues has caused this spike in inflation. The well-documented supply chain issues that followed Covid shutdowns drove up prices. Some of it was fueled by us, consumers who unleashed our pent-up demand to travel and buy goods after things reopened. More demand equals higher prices. Russias attack on Ukraine added to higher gas prices, which contribute to higher prices for goods, since it costs more to transport them.

This is in no way a Biden-caused problem unless Republicans are telling us he caused inflation worldwide, which they very well might say before November. A Pew Research Center report released just last week documented that in 37 of the 44 nations with advanced economies, the average annual inflation rate in the first quarter of this year was at least twice what it was in the first quarter of 2020. In fact, the United States during the first quarter of this year was 13 of 44 in terms of inflation, far eclipsed by countries such as Italy, Israel, Spain, Greece and Turkey.

This leads us to the hard reality that theres no easy solution for inflation; if there were, Biden wouldve flipped that switch months ago. And cynical Republicans know that.

At least Biden does have a plan, which, like the causes of inflation, is multifaceted.

At least Biden does have a plan, which, like the causes of inflation, is multifaceted.

With respect to gas prices, in addition to releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to increase supplies, the president last week sent a letter to U.S. oil companies demanding that they increase the production of oil and to stop unfairly profiting on Americans' need for gas. He even threatened to use all reasonable and appropriate Federal Government tools and emergency authorities to increase refinery capacity and output in the near term.

In his speech last week, Biden noted that on food costs, he was working closely with our European partners to get 20 million tons of grains locked in Ukraine out onto the market to help bring down food prices. The president also explained his efforts to reduce other household costs to offset the higher gas and food prices, such as capping the cost of insulin at $35 a bill for which passed the House in March but still has not passed the Senate due to lack of Republican support.

So where is the GOP plan to address inflation? Republicans have had plenty of time to come up with one, given that they have been screaming since last summer that Biden caused inflation.

Heres the best I can find: In May, Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, laid out his plan. The most effective thing Joe Biden can do to solve the inflation crisis he created is resign, Scott said. Then theres McCarthy, who earlier this month offered the following proposal as his solution to rising costs: I call on Speaker Pelosi and House Democrats to hold a prime-time hearing on the out-of-control inflation their policies have created.

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., the third-ranking member of the House GOP, isnt even pretending her party has a plan. She recently said of inflation, House Republicans will address these crises when we earn back control of the House this November. Sure, America, lets trust the party of tax cuts for the wealthy to look out for the rest of us.

We all get how politics works. The party out of power blames the party in power for everything thats bad. But in this case, inflation is directly impacting the lives of all Americans. Its time Democrats and the media press every Republican who blames Biden for inflation to answer this simple question: What is the GOP plan to reduce it? Americans deserve an answer.

Dean Obeidallah, a lawyer, hosts "The Dean Obeidallah Show" on SiriusXM radio's Progress channel. He has written for The Daily Beast, CNN.com and other publicationsand is a co-creator of the annual New York Arab-American Comedy Festival.

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Republicans would rather blame Biden for inflation than help fix it - MSNBC

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A Texas House candidate and police officer backed by former President Donald Trump and top Texas Republicans has been indicted on a charge of impersonating a public servant, according to authorities.

Dallas police said Friday that Frederick Frazier was placed on administrative leave after the department was notified that a Collin County grand jury indicted him. Impersonating a public servant is a third-degree felony.

Frazier turned himself in to the Richardson jail Friday and posted bond, said Teddy Yoshida, a spokesperson for the Richardson Police Department.

It is unclear what the specific allegations against Frazier are, and a spokesperson for the Collin County district attorneys office was not immediately available for comment.

Responding to the indictment, Fraziers campaign blamed his Republican primary runoff opponent, Paul Chabot, who had suggested Frazier posed as a city code compliance officer to get Chabots campaign signs taken down at a Walmart. In a statement, Fraziers campaign said Chabot, who has run for office multiple times before, is trying to overturn the results of that election by bringing up trumped complaints to law enforcement and testifying before a grand jury.

Frederick Frazier is looking forward to having the opportunity to defend himself in court, where we are confident jurors will see through Chabots lies in the same way that voters have five times before, the statement said.

John Thomas, Chabots consultant, issued a statement on Fraziers indictment:

An independent grand jury was empaneled and determined that Mr. Frazier committed multiple felonies. In fact, it was the Rangers and the McKinney PD who uncovered the felonies. Fraziers lying and deceit knows no limits. He committed crimes and refuses to fess up. He is a disgrace to himself and to those who dawn a badge in law enforcement. Paul Chabot demands Frazier have one shred of decency and immediately drop out of the race as its crucial that both a Republican and candidate with integrity represent the people of the 61st district.

Frazier easily won the Republican primary runoff last month for House District 61, an open seat in Collin County that leans Republican. A well-known advocate for law enforcement in Austin, Frazier had the backing of Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and state House Speaker Dade Phelan. The Democratic nominee in the race is Sheena King.

During the runoff, Chabot spoke out about the alleged theft of dozens of his campaign signs. In one incident, Chabot said a Walmart store manager told him someone claiming to work for city code compliance came in and told the store to take down Chabots signs because they were illegally placed. Chabot said he reported that to the police.

The Texas Rangers ultimately looked into his claims. Chabot later obtained a report from the Rangers through a public records request that said the agency investigated Frazier in February for alleged criminal violations of Impersonating a Public Servant and potentially related Theft.

At the time, Fraziers campaign consultant, Craig Murphy, said his candidate denied any wrongdoing and called Chabots claims frivolous.

Texas Scorecard and Steven Monacelli, a freelance journalist who extensively covered the campaign sign controversy for Rolling Stone, were among the first to report Friday that Frazier had been indicted.

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Republican Texas House candidate in Collin County charged with impersonating public servant - The Texas Tribune