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WASHINGTON For the past month or so, Republicans have insisted that the U.S. economy is in a recession, a period of reduced economic activity that can be politically devastating for the party in power.

Then, on Friday, the U.S. Labor Department announced the economy added half a million jobs last month, pushing the national unemployment rate down to 3.5% almost as low as it has ever gotten, and a strong indication that the economy is not, in fact, in a recession.

Still, Republicans insisted at a press conference on Friday, where they bashed Democrats plans to pass a major domestic policy bill, that theres a recession going on.

Were in a recession and this [bill] is going to make it worse, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said.

HuffPost asked the five Republican senators at the presser how Julys job growth could happen in a recession. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) pointed out that in the first and second quarters of the year, the U.S. saw negative growth in gross domestic product, an important economic metric.

The definition of recession is negative GDP growth in two successive quarters, Cassidy said.

Cassidy has a point: If you do a Google search for the definition of the word recession, the top dictionary result calls it a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

But economists dont use a simple rule of thumb to figure out when the economy is in recession they follow the determinations of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private nonprofit organization thats served as custodian of the business cycles ups and downs since the 1960s.

The NBER describes a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across industries. Quarterly GDP is a factor, but the most important measures are personal income and payroll employment. Those metrics both show growth.

In a Frequently Asked Questions page on its website, the NBER explicitly rejects the two-quarters definition, stating that GDP could decline by relatively small amounts in two consecutive quarters without warranting the determination that economic activity had peaked and begun to fall. The GDP readings this year showed modest declines for somewhat technical reasons, such as decreases in private inventory investment by businesses.

A tricky thing about the recession debate is that the recession determination comes many months after the fact, following revisions to the governments various monthly reports on jobs, income, consumer spending and manufacturing. So even after a recession starts, theres no official declaration until later.

Now, just because theres strong job growth, that doesnt mean people should be happy with the economy. Consumer prices have been rising at the fastest pace in decades, including at a 9.1% rate in June. Consumers are especially buffeted by volatile prices for food and gas, and consumer sentiment, as measured by surveys, has been remarkably low. Surveys also show that voters believe the economy is in a recession, and Republicans want those voters on their side.

Im very pleased that weve got strong job growth, but were in a recession, Cassidy said.

At the same time, some of the voters who tell pollsters they think the economy is in recession could be saying so because they have heard Republicans say it so many times on TV. Since a bad economy could benefit Republicans in Novembers election, they have an incentive to paint as dire a picture as possible, and less incentive to present a more nuanced, more truthful picture.

Whats strange is that Republicans are exaggerating economic problems when the public already strongly dislikes whats going on. And there is a real risk of recession around the corner, with the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in order to bring inflation down.

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) offered his own recession metric: Recession, to me, is when I go back home and the community bankers say, Hey, Doc, whats going on? Business is slowing down. Why are people afraid to invest?

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) noted that labor force participation numbers are still below pre-pandemic levels. And if you talk to families, they are having a harder and harder time keeping up, he said.

Graham suggested that questioning his economic analysis amounted to media bias against Republicans. If a Republican were in charge, you wouldnt be asking that question, he said.

Graham, in particular, should know that economic data is not pointing unequivocally toward recession. In response to a query from the South Carolina Republican this week, the head of the Congressional Budget Office an economist named Phillip Swagel told him its too soon to say theres a recession.

It is possible that, in retrospect, it will become apparent that the economy moved into recession sometime this year, Swagel wrote. However, that is not clear from data that were available at the beginning of August.

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Republicans Say Economy Is In Recession After It Added Half A Million Jobs In July - HuffPost

Its no secret that Disney involves itself in politics, whether guests like it or not. When youre a huge corporation, its just smart business to try and garner favor from lawmakers and influence policy. That said, Disney has come under fire for their involvement in politics as of late. The FBI has gotten involved, fans have called for a boycott, and Floridas governor, Ron DeSantis, seems to have declared war on the House of Mouse. This all culminated in a decision by Disney to suspend all campaign donations (Republican and Democrat), at least temporarily.

Many Republicans have criticized Disneys political involvement despite being the biggest beneficiary of Disney campaign dollars. Historically, Disney has given much more to Republicans than they have to Democrats. Even in the 2022 election cycle, Republicans have benefited from Disney dollars much more than Democrats have. Disney has donated $400,00 to the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, and The Republican Party of Florida got $255,000.

Meanwhile, Disney has given the Florida Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee $85,000 this cycle, and the Florida Democratic Party, $25,000.

Before their infamous battles over HB 1557 and SB 4C, Disney had given $50,000 to Friends of Ron DeSantis and $3,000 to the now-aborted gubernatorial campaign of Democratic Sen. Annette Taddeo, but no money to the gubernatorial campaigns of Democratic U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist or Democratic Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.

Some speculate that Disney will withdraw support from Republicans after its feud with DeSantis but that seems unlikely, given the history of Republican control in the state. Time will tell as August draws on. This is the time when Disney has typically begun its final round of cash contributions to campaigns and committees. However, its unclear if the company is ready to reverse its decision to suspend Florida donations, or if they will reverse their support of Republican candidates when they do.

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Republicans Benefit Most from Disney Campaign Donations, Could That Change? - DisneyDining

The Arizona Republican Party has fallen.

That was Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers take after he lost his bid for a state Senate seat Tuesday.

Ive joked and said the party has taken Kabul and Im on the last plane out to Uzbekistan, he said by phone Friday during a layover en route to Israel as part of a trip to learn how desert farming techniques and desalinated water and distribution systems could work in Arizona.

Candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump won big in the states Republican primary this week, including former state Sen. David Farnsworth, the fellow Mesa Latter-day Saint who beat Bowers. Farnsworth has said he believes the 2020 election was fraudulent, but state audits and Arizona Republicans have found no evidence that fraud effected the outcome.

Bowers, a conservative, was censured by the state party following his testimony in front of the Jan. 6 committee about being pressured to help overturn the states election results in 2020. Bowers testified that his refusal to help overturn the election was motivated by his faith and belief in upholding the Constitution. He said he and his family have been harassed since he refused to go along with the scheme.

Bowers said he called Farnsworth and wished him and Arizona the best, but hes unsure if the party will come together after a divisive primary.

The party in Arizona is dysfunctional and now they want everybody to turn around and step into lock step, he said.

Anytime you have an attitude that you have to destroy your enemies in the primary, and even the party has that attitude, and then to come back and say now were going to join all together. ... I think thatll be a challenge, he said.

A longtime Republican stronghold, Arizona has seen Democrats win statewide in recent years against Trump and Trump-aligned candidates. Whether or not 2022 continues that trend remains to be seen, but Bowers believes the new Arizona Republican Party is more extreme.

I frankly think they are very extreme and its not so much in the policies as it is in the attitude, he said. Theres a difference between being a conservative and being more radical, less tolerant.

Conservative is principle-based and institution-based, things that are lasting and of importance over generations, he said.

Bowers said he sees frightening developments in the (Arizona) House, which I love and want to protect, and worries the state legislature could see a brain drain in staff.

It will be a sea change, he said.

Bowers said he intends to speak his piece, but said he found it liberating that he no longer needs to worry about the party. He plans to finish his term as Arizona House Speaker and then go where the good Lord needs me.

See more here:
Rusty Bowers and the future of the Arizona Republican Party - Deseret News

Multiple potential candidates forthe GOP's 2024 presidential primary race support former President Donald Trump's plot to make it easier to purge civil servants deemed disloyal to their prospective administrations,AxiosrevealedWednesday.

Noah Bookbinder, president and CEO of the government watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW),respondedwith alarm to the new reporting.

"It is distressing that leading contenders from one of our major political partiesnot just Donald Trumpare reportedly committed to undercutting nonpolitical government employees, another step to significantly weaken our system of checks and balances," he said.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, confirmed they "support using a measure like Schedule F to reform the federal bureaucracy," according toAxios' Alayna Treene.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis along with Sens. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Rick Scott, R-Fla., "wouldn't speak to Schedule F specifically, but they showed openness to the approach," Treene noted.

Meanwhile, former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., declined to comment.

Shortly before losing the 2020 presidential election, Trump signed anexecutive orderto create a new Schedule F category of federal employees who are easier to fire.

Though President Joe Biden rescinded the order, if Trump runs again in two years and wins, he is expected to revive the plan to reclassify thousands of workers, which has beencondemnedas "authoritarianism 101" and "a fascist takeover of our government."

Donald Moynihan, a professor at Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public Policy, recentlywroteforSlatethat "Schedule F would burn down the civil service system. It would be a government of the lawless leading the incompetent."

Fears about a Republican administration taking such action have grown since U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, last week unveiled the Public Service Reform Act, which he said would "empower federal agencies to swiftly address misconduct and remove underperforming or ill-willed employees."

AsCommon Dreamsreported, Don Kettl, professor emeritus and former dean of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, said of Roy's move that "this is obviously a huge and major change, an effort to gear up a major assault on the federal employment system."

Kettl also warned that such efforts "aren't just Trump necessarily, and if Republicans take control of Congress following the midterms, this may very well go from idea to specific action."

Democratsand a few Republicansin Congress have responded with efforts to protect federal workers.

As U.S. Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va.,wrotein late July forThe Washington Post:

Our federal workforce consists of roughly two million federal employees hired based on their acumen, and they work each day for the American peopleserving in myriad capacities to improve this nation and America's posture abroad. These impartial civil servants research vaccines, help families in the wake of hurricanes and deadly fires, and inspect our food[s] to ensure they are free of disease. They deserve protection from political interference from a president who would place preserving his power above following the law.

Congress must assert itself and ensure no future president can repeat what Trump has already tried to do once, and now is reportedly planning to do again. For nearly two years, I have been trying to warn congressional leadership that protecting our 139-year, merit-based, civil service is fundamental to protecting our democracy.

That is why I have introduced the Preventing a Patronage System Act. The bipartisan legislation, co-sponsored by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), was passed by the House this month but has yet to be taken up by the Senate.

Though Sens. Ben Cardin, D-Md., Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., Tim Kaine, D-Va., Alex Padilla, D-Calif., Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., and Mark Warner, D-Va.,introducedthe legislation in the upper chamber on Tuesday, it would require GOP support to reach Biden's desk.

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Not just Trump: Other 2024 Republicans back purge to replace career federal workers with loyalists - Salon

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Senate Republicans who supported the China competition bill are smarting after Sen. Joe Manchin announced a tax and spending deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, but they say they don't regret their votes.

"I think it's a lousy idea, it's going to make inflation worse," Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said Thursday of the package Manchin and Schumer plan to advance via a procedural tool called reconciliation. "There's a bad faith element to it."

But asked if he regrets voting for the China bill, Graham said, "It's not I regret, it's cause we, you know, that's a problem."

Earlier this month, Republicans were threatening to kill the China competition bill it was stuck in committee as long as Democrats continued working on passing a party-line social policy bill via reconciliation. But top Republicans, including Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, green-lighted the China bill after Manchin, D-W.Va., made a statement appearing to pour cold water on efforts to include climate, energy and tax provisions in the legislation.

Senate Republicans argued Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., was willing to "look you in the eye and lie to you" when he previously indicated he wouldn't agree to climate, energy and tax provisions in a reconciliation bill. (Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

HOUSE PASSES CHINA COMPETITION BILL, SENDS IT TO PRESIDENT BIDEN'S DESK

But just hours after the Senate cleared the China bill, also known as CHIPS, Wednesday, Manchin and Schumer, D-N.Y., announced a package with all those provisions, including more than $400 billion in spending and $739 billion in tax increases.

Cornyn lit into Manchin in a conversation with reporters Thursday, saying that such a move from Manchin and Democrats will "poison the well" of cooperation.

"It was a complete flip-flop. Everything he said he was against, now he's for," Cornyn said. "I just wonder what the transaction was that got him to yes."

I regret it when people want to look you in the eye and lie to you. But that's a lesson learned, and it won't happen again

BIDEN URGES CONGRESS TO PASS FAR FROM PERFECT MANCHIN DEAL: PUT POLITICS ASIDE, GET IT DONE

Cornyn said, "I regret it when people want to look you in the eye and lie to you. But that's a lesson learned, and it won't happen again." He also argued that the China bill and the reconciliation bill are "not connected," despite explicitly connecting them just weeks ago.

"The CHIPS bill is necessary to shore up an existential threat to our economy and our national security, and that stands on its own merit," Cornyn said.

Asked about how he connected them before, Cornyn said, "There was previously a statement that they weren't going to try to raise taxes. They misrepresented that. But that doesn't mean that the CHIPS bill is unimportant."

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, green-lighted fellow Republicans to vote for the Senate's China bill when he thought Democrats wouldn't move forward on climate, energy and tax legislation. But shortly after the China bill passed, Democrats did just that. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

MANCHIN, SCHUMER AGREE TO VASTLY PARED BACK VERSION OF BUILD BACK BETTER

Manchin, meanwhile, told reporters Thursday that he does not think he pulled a fast one on Republicans.

"No. You know, I sure hope they don't feel that way. I mean, I understand that they are, but I don't know why," he said.

The senator also defended the substance of the bill, and said Republicans should support it if they put aside partisanship.

Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, slammed the Manchin-Schumer reconciliation Thursday, but said he doesn't regret his vote on the Senate's China bill. (Alex Brandon/Pool/AFP via Getty Image)

WHAT'S IN THE MANCHIN-SCHUMER TAX HIKE AND CLIMATE CHANGE BILL?

"I would hope they would look at it with, let's say, with clear lenses," Manchin said.

Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, whose state is expected to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the China bill, slammed the Schumer-Manchin deal. But, he said, "CHIPS is really important to Ohio."

Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., said he's "very disappointed in the backsliding that's occurred." But he said he would not engage in a "hypothetical" about if he would have voted for the China bill if he knew Schumer and Manchin were about to announce a deal.

Democrats, meanwhile, say their bill will help the economy, decrease inflation and position the U.S. better for the 21st century.

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"The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will make a historic down payment on deficit reduction to fight inflation, invest in domestic energy production and manufacturing, and reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40% by 2030," Schumer and Manchin said in a joint statement.

"This is the action the American people have been waiting for.This addresses the problems of today high health care costs and overall inflation as well as investments in our energy security for the future," President Biden said of the bill in a statement Wednesday.

The Senate will likely begin floor proceedings on the Manchin-Schumer deal next week.

Fox News' Kelly Phares contributed to this report.

Tyler Olson covers politics for Fox News Digital. You can contact him at tyler.olson@fox.com and follow him on Twitter at @TylerOlson1791.

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Republicans who voted for China bill charge Manchin flip-flopped and lied on spending and tax hike measure - Fox News