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Ramesh PonnuruBloomberg Opinion

President Joe Bidens job approval is lower than Barack Obamas or Donald Trumps at this point in their presidencies. Each of those predecessors saw his party lose control of the House of Representatives in his second year in office.

Midterm elections typically go badly for the party in power. Its opponents are aggrieved, its supporters disappointed at worst or complacent at best. But the Democrats are facing an additional challenge this year: an issue environment that accentuates their weaknesses.

Inflation is unquestionably the top issue for American voters right now. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 50% of voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on handling it, while only 31% had more faith in the Democrats. Its a big advantage, and its not a fluke.

Inflation has been dormant for a long time in the U.S.: ABC News had not conducted a poll on which party was most trusted on dealing with the problem since the George H. W. Bush administration. It turns out that the Republicans had roughly the same advantage 30 years ago, too.

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It may be, then, that Democrats arent just suffering because inflation has been high on their watch or even because Biden (like the Federal Reserve and many economists) clearly underestimated how long it would stay high. The public could just be primed to trust Republicans on the issue, the way its primed to trust Democrats on, say, Medicare.

Democrats are trying to build their own reputation as inflation-fighters presumably that is a key reason Biden wrote an op-ed about the subject for the Wall Street Journal but also want to get voters to put a higher priority on other issues that are more favorable to their party. Abortion and gun violence top that list.

The same ABC/Post poll found the Democrats with a 10-point advantage on abortion, and many polls suggest they are in sync with public opinion in seeking stricter regulation of guns. On both issues, however, intensity has often been on the side of conservatives.

Democrats are also eager to make a campaign issue out of former President Donald Trump, and his disgraceful effort to stay in power after losing the 2020 election. But this tactic failed last year in Virginia, where Trump is less popular than he is nationally. It seems unlikely that it is going to move voters more this fall.

Republicans, of course, can also try to elevate other issues. They have been blaming progressive prosecutors for rising rates of violent crime and for public disorder, and think San Franciscos recent recall of its district attorney illustrates the potency of this issue. (The ABC/Post poll found that Republicans have a 12-point advantage on crime.) They have also laid the groundwork to attack Bidens immigration policies if conditions at the U.S.-Mexico border get visibly worse.

The issues Republicans want to highlight inflation, crime, and illegal immigration all fit into a larger conservative story about government. Each of them involves a failure by the government at a core task: maintaining the value of the currency, suppressing violence, regulating the border.

They thus reinforce public suspicions about the competence of government and, therefore, about ambitious proposals for government-directed social change. They threaten the publics sense of stability, order and control the very things conservative politicians specialize in offering, if they can avoid coming across as radicals themselves.

Democrats spent several months trying to enact a Build Back Better agenda with high-flown rhetoric about a once-in-a-generation opportunity to enact transformational policies that lift up peoples lives. With voters upset about prices at the gas pump, that kind of talk now seems laughable. So, increasingly, does the prospect that Democrats will keep their majority in the US House.

Ramesh Ponnuru is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the editor of National Review and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

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The Republicans' three-pronged strategy to win back the House, by Ramesh Ponnuru - Press of Atlantic City

There are worrying signs that Democrats have been conditioned to believe that the key to their success comes through periodic collapsethat there is a perverse comfort to be taken in the courting of imminent disaster. At the moment, Democrats hopes for the midterms lie in the potential galvanization of voters that might (or might not) follow the gutting of reproductive freedom. And across the country, Democrats are trying to help extremist candidates win GOP primaries in the hopes that those candidates will be less competitive in the general elections. Larry Summers believes that whipping inflation will require higher unemployment rates, and Democrats are listening. Even the strange reluctance among national Democrats to rise to the defense of the LGBTQ community, amid the daily genocidal rhetoric of Republicans, suggests that theyre counting on some amount of mayhem to inspire a normalcy-inducing backlash. Its quite depressing to live in a political system where one party can only ascend to power on the backs of the victims the other party leaves behind.

Any solution must begin with a commitment to evening the asymmetries between the parties structure and strategies. Democrats need their own equivalent of the Federalist Society and their own plan to remake the judiciary and retrieve all the civil rights that are about to be stolen. They need to start staking out long-term transformative goals and define themselves in the same way the GOP has for generations, as a party with a wholesale commitment to a specific vision of the world. And they need to get their voters excited about casting their ballots at all levels of governmentand then embrace a politics that works harder between election days.

But more immediately, Democrats should stop talking about the GOP they wish existeda party that, in their imagining, up until recently was reasonable and only went astray when Trump came to powerand start talking in stark, unforgiving terms about the GOP that actually exists: a party that committed itself to the decades-long labor of fulfilling the very projects that now threaten to bring a new round of mayhem and harm. Its nice that voters seem to turn to Democrats whenever there is a multitude of casualties, but Democrats need to break this cycle if they ever want to possess the durable power necessary to reverse the maladies that will soon be unleashed.

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The Democrats Theory of Change: Wait for the Republicans to Screw Up - The New Republic

Republicans want you to believe that inflation in the United States is not part of a global problem but is 100% President Joe Bidens fault.

Just check out their recent over-the-top rhetoric. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., has blamed Biden for creating raging inflation. In a tweet, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, called inflation #BidenFlation, saying it was caused by Bidens policies. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., even made a speech on the Senate floor last week focused on inflation, in which he detailed the rising prices of goods, gas, etc., all leading to the crescendo that it was Biden and the Democrats' fault.

What the GOP has left out of all its speeches, television appearances and tweets slamming Biden is even a hint of a proposal to reduce prices.

But what the GOP has left out of all its speeches, television appearances and tweets slamming Biden is even a hint of a proposal to reduce prices. Even worse than the GOP not having a plan of its own, though, is Republicans determination to block Bidens efforts to help Americans. Theyve opposed his agenda to lower child care costs, create affordable housing and more. Biden made that very point in his June 14 speech about his plans to address inflation, in which he declared that Republicans in Congress are doing everything they can to stop my plans to bring down costs on ordinary families.

Theres no disputing that prices in our nation rose 8.6% in May since last year at that time, the highest rate since 1981. Food prices have risen over 10% since May 2021, and gas prices have skyrocketed. Just about everything we use on a daily basis costs more.

Biden candidly acknowledged this reality in last weeks speech, noting that inflation is sapping the strength of a lot of families. He said he understands firsthand what this is like, noting that when he was a child growing up in a blue-collar family, it mattered if the price of food went up.

A convergence of issues has caused this spike in inflation. The well-documented supply chain issues that followed Covid shutdowns drove up prices. Some of it was fueled by us, consumers who unleashed our pent-up demand to travel and buy goods after things reopened. More demand equals higher prices. Russias attack on Ukraine added to higher gas prices, which contribute to higher prices for goods, since it costs more to transport them.

This is in no way a Biden-caused problem unless Republicans are telling us he caused inflation worldwide, which they very well might say before November. A Pew Research Center report released just last week documented that in 37 of the 44 nations with advanced economies, the average annual inflation rate in the first quarter of this year was at least twice what it was in the first quarter of 2020. In fact, the United States during the first quarter of this year was 13 of 44 in terms of inflation, far eclipsed by countries such as Italy, Israel, Spain, Greece and Turkey.

This leads us to the hard reality that theres no easy solution for inflation; if there were, Biden wouldve flipped that switch months ago. And cynical Republicans know that.

At least Biden does have a plan, which, like the causes of inflation, is multifaceted.

At least Biden does have a plan, which, like the causes of inflation, is multifaceted.

With respect to gas prices, in addition to releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to increase supplies, the president last week sent a letter to U.S. oil companies demanding that they increase the production of oil and to stop unfairly profiting on Americans' need for gas. He even threatened to use all reasonable and appropriate Federal Government tools and emergency authorities to increase refinery capacity and output in the near term.

In his speech last week, Biden noted that on food costs, he was working closely with our European partners to get 20 million tons of grains locked in Ukraine out onto the market to help bring down food prices. The president also explained his efforts to reduce other household costs to offset the higher gas and food prices, such as capping the cost of insulin at $35 a bill for which passed the House in March but still has not passed the Senate due to lack of Republican support.

So where is the GOP plan to address inflation? Republicans have had plenty of time to come up with one, given that they have been screaming since last summer that Biden caused inflation.

Heres the best I can find: In May, Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, laid out his plan. The most effective thing Joe Biden can do to solve the inflation crisis he created is resign, Scott said. Then theres McCarthy, who earlier this month offered the following proposal as his solution to rising costs: I call on Speaker Pelosi and House Democrats to hold a prime-time hearing on the out-of-control inflation their policies have created.

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., the third-ranking member of the House GOP, isnt even pretending her party has a plan. She recently said of inflation, House Republicans will address these crises when we earn back control of the House this November. Sure, America, lets trust the party of tax cuts for the wealthy to look out for the rest of us.

We all get how politics works. The party out of power blames the party in power for everything thats bad. But in this case, inflation is directly impacting the lives of all Americans. Its time Democrats and the media press every Republican who blames Biden for inflation to answer this simple question: What is the GOP plan to reduce it? Americans deserve an answer.

Dean Obeidallah, a lawyer, hosts "The Dean Obeidallah Show" on SiriusXM radio's Progress channel. He has written for The Daily Beast, CNN.com and other publicationsand is a co-creator of the annual New York Arab-American Comedy Festival.

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Republicans would rather blame Biden for inflation than help fix it - MSNBC

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A Texas House candidate and police officer backed by former President Donald Trump and top Texas Republicans has been indicted on a charge of impersonating a public servant, according to authorities.

Dallas police said Friday that Frederick Frazier was placed on administrative leave after the department was notified that a Collin County grand jury indicted him. Impersonating a public servant is a third-degree felony.

Frazier turned himself in to the Richardson jail Friday and posted bond, said Teddy Yoshida, a spokesperson for the Richardson Police Department.

It is unclear what the specific allegations against Frazier are, and a spokesperson for the Collin County district attorneys office was not immediately available for comment.

Responding to the indictment, Fraziers campaign blamed his Republican primary runoff opponent, Paul Chabot, who had suggested Frazier posed as a city code compliance officer to get Chabots campaign signs taken down at a Walmart. In a statement, Fraziers campaign said Chabot, who has run for office multiple times before, is trying to overturn the results of that election by bringing up trumped complaints to law enforcement and testifying before a grand jury.

Frederick Frazier is looking forward to having the opportunity to defend himself in court, where we are confident jurors will see through Chabots lies in the same way that voters have five times before, the statement said.

John Thomas, Chabots consultant, issued a statement on Fraziers indictment:

An independent grand jury was empaneled and determined that Mr. Frazier committed multiple felonies. In fact, it was the Rangers and the McKinney PD who uncovered the felonies. Fraziers lying and deceit knows no limits. He committed crimes and refuses to fess up. He is a disgrace to himself and to those who dawn a badge in law enforcement. Paul Chabot demands Frazier have one shred of decency and immediately drop out of the race as its crucial that both a Republican and candidate with integrity represent the people of the 61st district.

Frazier easily won the Republican primary runoff last month for House District 61, an open seat in Collin County that leans Republican. A well-known advocate for law enforcement in Austin, Frazier had the backing of Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and state House Speaker Dade Phelan. The Democratic nominee in the race is Sheena King.

During the runoff, Chabot spoke out about the alleged theft of dozens of his campaign signs. In one incident, Chabot said a Walmart store manager told him someone claiming to work for city code compliance came in and told the store to take down Chabots signs because they were illegally placed. Chabot said he reported that to the police.

The Texas Rangers ultimately looked into his claims. Chabot later obtained a report from the Rangers through a public records request that said the agency investigated Frazier in February for alleged criminal violations of Impersonating a Public Servant and potentially related Theft.

At the time, Fraziers campaign consultant, Craig Murphy, said his candidate denied any wrongdoing and called Chabots claims frivolous.

Texas Scorecard and Steven Monacelli, a freelance journalist who extensively covered the campaign sign controversy for Rolling Stone, were among the first to report Friday that Frazier had been indicted.

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Republican Texas House candidate in Collin County charged with impersonating public servant - The Texas Tribune

Mayra Flores was sworn in as the first Mexican-born member of Congress this week. And she did it as a Republican running in a Texas district that has only ever elected Democrats.

Flores, a 30-something mother of four, told me she was brought up with strong conservative values that focused on faith, family and hard work.

She won nearly 51% of the vote against her Democratic opponents 43% in the special election to replace Democrat Filemon Vela, who retired before his term ended.

She even earned the vote of Texas transplant and billionaire Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO, who revealed on Twitter he had just made his first-ever vote for a Republican candidate:I voted for Mayra Flores first time I ever voted Republican. Massive red wave in 2022.

Flores will serve out the remainder of Velas term and must face Democratic nominee Vicente Gonzalez in Novembers general election to keep the seat. While her initial term will be short-lived (and she has a tough fight ahead of her in the general), her victory signifies the growing shift of Hispanic voters connecting with a more conservative message.

The voters in Flores34thcongressional district are 84.5% Hispanic. Flores, who hails from the northeastern state of Tamaulipas, Mexico, and came to the US legally with her family when she was six years old, is a respiratory care worker and the wife of a border patrol agent. Her campaign never shied away from the issue of border security and her belief that everyone can earn the American Dream.

People want you to understand the things that are really impacting their lives, like inflation, education policies, the border crisis, which is literally in our backyard, escalating crime and the drug crisis, said Flores in an interview with The Post.

We need a legal immigration system that works not what we have going on here everyday in the district, she said of the flood of migrants entering the southern border daily.

Flores said she got involved with her local Republican party several years ago when she realized she lined up with their views on faith, education and border security.

She said Hispanic voters see themselves as Americans, while Democrats see Hispanic voters as an ethnic voting bloc. Because of that they felt entitled to our vote, Flores said. The problem is they do not represent our values of faith, community, work ethic or the desire to seek better opportunities.

Although Flores Rio Grande Valley district has been controlled by the Democrats for more than a century, the partys support here is steadily beginning to erode. While Obama won here by a whopping 22.1% just 10 years ago, Biden took it by just 4.2%.

Cameron County which is 85 percent Hispanic and located on the border has swung 14.3 percentage points toward Republicans in less than two years. Biden took that county by 13.2 percentage points; Flores won it by 1.1%.

Flores remarkable victory is reminiscent of the 2010 red wave, when Republican House candidates in the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania swept seats that Democrats had held for generations. The media and the Democratic Party never expected Hispanics to vote Republican in the same way they never expected legacy blue-collar Democrats to flip parties in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. But they did.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Democrats have taken these voters for granted. They always believed they were entitled to their vote in the same way they believed for years they were entitled to the working class white vote, but when you stop talking to voters about things they care about kitchen table issues like inflation, crime, the cost of gas or utilities and securing the border you lose them, he said.

While Flores was talking about those issues in the closing days of the election, her opponent was running on [the Capitol riot of] January 6. That showed how out of touch Democrats are in understanding what people are worried about right now, McCarthy said.

Flores victory is part of a larger trend in states with high Hispanic populations where Republicans are bagging local races. Last year the GOP took two heavily Hispanic mayoral races in Texas. Javier Villalobos defeated a Democrat-backed candidate in the border city of McAllen, while Mattie Parker bested a Democrat in Fort Worth who had endorsements from Beto ORourke and Julin Castro, both of whom ran for president in 2020.

When Flores faces Gonzalez in November, the newly drawn lines of the 34thdistrict will favor Democrats. But she said she is undaunted by that challenge.

Nothing is impossible when you work hard. We have it in us and were going to work really hard to earn everyones votes. And Im confident that were going to win that reelection in November because no one will be able to outwork us, she said.

Flores said she was honored to earn not just Musks vote but the support of everyone who has sent her to the US Capitol. Now, she wants to be their voice in Washington.

Prior to me running, no one really cared about what Texas district 34 had to say, she said.

I ran because I wanted to give back to this amazing country thats given me so much. Ive accomplished the American dream and I just want all our children to also accomplish the American dream. I ran because I didnt want that to slip away. I won because people heard that in me.

When I get to congress my job is supposed to focus on the issues that matter to my constituents, not whats important to people in Washington, DC.

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Why Mexican-born Rep. Mayra Flores is the future of the Republican party - New York Post