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House Majority Leader Steve Scalise speaks ata news conference withother Republican House leaders and lawmakers following a GOP caucus meeting at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 10, 2023. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Republicans now hold a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, the first time they have controlled the chamber in four years. The GOPs first weeks in power have been marked by drama most notably by Kevin McCarthys protracted, 15-ballot victory to become House speaker.
As the new Congress gets underway, heres a look at the expectations that Republicans in the United States have for the next two years, as well as their views on key issues and the future of the Republican Party, based on recent Pew Research Center surveys.
This Pew Research Center analysis examines key attitudes among Republicans in the United States as the 118th Congress gets underway. All findings are drawn from previously published surveys and other studies by the Center. Links and methodological information about each study are included in the text of this analysis.
Republicans, like Democrats, have modest expectations for the 118th Congress. In a Center survey conducted shortly after the 2022 midterm elections, fewer than half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (44%) said congressional Republicans would be successful in getting their programs passed over the next two years. However, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents were not much more optimistic that their programs would advance: 48% said President Joe Biden would be successful in passing his agenda.
Republicans have become somewhat less optimistic about their partys future. In November, before the protracted debate over Rep. McCarthys speaker bid, about two-thirds of Republicans (65%) said they were optimistic about the partys future. That was 9 percentage points lower than after former President Donald Trumps election defeat in 2020 and 18 points lower than after the 2018 midterm elections.
Republicans are largely united in their views on government, national defense and policies involving race. Pew Research Centers 2021 political typology study found that Republican-aligned groups in the typology shared support for smaller government, a strong national defense anda rejection of the view that the country needs to do a great deal more to address racial inequities. Large majorities in all of the GOP-oriented groups said the government is doing too many things that would be better left to business and individuals; that government policies should be aimed at maintaining the United States status as the lone military superpower; and that White people derive little benefit from their race.
There are fissures in the GOP coalition. The same typology study found fissures in the GOP coalition, including over economic fairness, tax policy, and in views of abortion and same-sex marriage. For example, in one of the four Republican-oriented typology groups Ambivalent Right a majority had a positive view of the impact of legalizing same-sex marriage. Two other groups were divided, while a majority of Faith and Flag Conservatives said it was bad for society.
Republicans have soured on many national institutions in recent years. Fewer than half of Republicans and Republican leaners say technology companies, banks and other financial institutions, K-12 public schools, labor unions, colleges and universities, and large corporations have a positive effect on the way things are going in the country, according to a fall 2022 survey. The share of Republicans who say banks have a positive impact has fallen 25 points since 2019 (from 63% to 38%) and the decline has been similar in Republicans views of large corporations (from 54% to 26%).
The Supreme Court remains popular among Republicans. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans and Republican leaners (73%) expressed a favorable view of the high court in a survey conducted last August, shortly after a term that included the overturning of Roe v. Wade. That was 8 points higher than in January 2022. By contrast, just 28% of Democrats and Democratic leaners viewed the Supreme Court favorably in August, 18 points lower than at the start of last year and a decline of more than 40 points since 2020. The result: the largest partisan gap in the more than three decades of polling on the high court.
Conservative Republicans have an especially negative view of China. In a survey conducted last spring, 82% of U.S. adults expressed an unfavorable view of China, including 89% of Republicans and 79% of Democrats. However, conservative Republicans stood out for their criticism: 93% expressed an unfavorable view of China, including nearly two-thirds (64%) who said they had a very unfavorable view far higher than any other ideological group. And in a Center survey last fall, conservative Republicans were far more likely than moderate or liberal Republicans or Democrats to regard Chinas military power, as well as its economic competition with the U.S., as very serious problems.
On immigration policy, Republicans overwhelmingly prioritize securing the U.S.-Mexico border. While majorities in both parties have long viewed increased security along the U.S.-Mexico border as an important goal for U.S. immigration policy, Republicans were more than three times as likely as Democrats (72% vs. 22%) to say this is very important in a survey conducted last August. Republicans also were far more likely than Democrats to say it is very or somewhat important to increase deportations of people in the country illegally, and they were less likely to favor creating a path to legal status for those in the U.S. illegally.
Before the midterms, the share of Republicans with a positive view of Trump had slipped. In an October 2022 survey, most Republicans expressed a warm view of the former president, but the share saying this as measured by a feeling thermometer ranging from 0 to 100 had fallen since 2020. Six-in-ten Republicans said they had warm feelings toward Trump in October, down from 67% a year earlier and 79% in April 2020, during Trumps unsuccessful reelection campaign.
Republicans and Democrats have more dislike for the opposite party than in the past. Since the mid-1990s, partisan antipathy has risen substantially among members of both parties. In a survey conducted last year, 62% of Republicans said they had a very unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, nearly triple the share who said this in 1994. A smaller majority of Democrats had very unfavorable views of the GOP (54%), but this share has also tripled since the mid-1990s.
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How Republicans view their party, key issues as 118th Congress begins ...
Another spending fight looms between the White House and Congress, reviving similar stalemates in 2011 and 2013 under President Barack Obama.
Then, as now, Congress was divided -- a Republican House and a Democratic Senate -- and the White House had a Democratic president.
Then, as now, ascendant House Republicans sought to use must-pass spending and debt legislation to negotiate priorities they said their voters wanted, such as major spending cuts and, in 2013, an effort to stop the Affordable Care Act.
The U.S. does not take in enough money in taxes or other revenue to pay for its expenses, so it must borrow to cover the rest -- and on Thursday, the U.S. hit its current debt limit of approximately $31.4 trillion. The Treasury Department has begun what Secretary Janet Yellen called "extraordinary measures" to keep the federal government funded and give Congress more time to act.
Last week, Yellen wrote to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that she didn't expect the department's "cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted before early June."
That timeline sets the stage for a fierce political fight, with Republicans portraying Democrats as out-of-control spenders -- racking up debts upon debts upon debts -- and Democrats responding that the GOP, which holds the House, is unable to responsibly govern by paying the country's bills for the military, Social Security and much more.
All the while, the Treasury says, the country is pushed closer to the brink of major economic consequences if it runs out of "extraordinary measures" and can't borrow money.
"This has become a political football because it's so easy to pass back and forth and get points for hitting the other side," said one House Democratic aide, granted anonymity to speak candidly. "There's less incentive to actually solve problems when there's a chance to have a news cycle hitting the other side on it."
A "football" is what the White House says they don't want, citing how Congress has usually addressed the debt limit in a bipartisan fashion, under presidents of both parties and even when Republicans controlled the House and Senate.
"Congress is going to need to raise the debt limit without -- without -- conditions and it's just that simple," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said earlier this month.
And while Jean-Pierre has since said there are ongoing conversations between the White House and members of both parties, "Attempts to exploit the debt ceiling as leverage will not work," she told reporters this month. "There will be no hostage taking."
McCarthy, R-Calif., has insisted that he would not support any debt limit increase without reducing spending back to fiscal year 2022 levels. He has pointed to the most recent election results.
"Republicans were elected with a mandate from the American people in the midterm elections. We campaigned on the fact that we were going to be serious about spending cuts. The Senate has to recognize we're not going to budge until we see meaningful reform with respect to spending," he said on Fox News over the weekend, referencing negotiations with the Senate.
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., echoed that in an appearance on ABC's "This Week."
"The Republicans were largely elected to get control of reckless funding. That's the mission that their voters have given them. So, when President [Joe] Biden says he's going to refuse to negotiate with Republicans on any concessions, I don't think that's right," Bacon said.
"I want our side to negotiate with the Democrats in good faith," he said, "but President Biden has to also negotiate."
President Joe Biden speaks from the White House on April 14, 2021.
Andrew Harnik/AP, FILE
Lawmakers and congressional aides who spoke with ABC News say they bristle over the pall over the prospect of negotiations but admit that they see political advantages for each party.
"I think members, especially the Republican side, are very pressured right now to be able to rationalize not just to themselves but to their constituents what $31.4 trillion means to the country in debt. And if they just blindly go forward with the same old, same old, they're not doing their job," former Rep. Mike Bishop, R-Mich., told ABC News. "That's exactly what their constituents will tell them. So, for every opportunity you have to address the issue of spending, you really, as a member, gotta take advantage of it."
Former Rep. David Jolly, R-Fla., who has since left the party, predicted that "House Republicans will play hardball." Jolly added that concessions by McCarthy would be an "early broken promise" to the more conservative members whom he persuaded to vote him in as speaker.
President Biden, too, could see political upside in holding his line, some in his party say.
"Biden won't need to negotiate as long as the public continues to understand that MAGA Republicans in the House are to blame for the looming crisis. They have done a good job so far. It will help him in the reelect to run in 2024 against a Republican House that's out of control," said one Senate Democratic aide.
The modern era of spending and debt limit fights traces back to the 2010 midterms, when Republicans retook the House in what was the largest gain for a party in the chamber since 1938. Conservatives demanded the Obama administration tackle deficit reduction in order to raise the borrowing limit.
In the summer of 2011, after months of fractious wrangling, Obama told reporters that "crisis" had been averted -- the U.S. government's debt limit would be raised, ensuring it could continue to borrow money to pay its bills, in exchange for major spending cuts sought by Republicans.
"It ensures also that we will not face this same kind of crisis again in six months or eight months or 12 months," Obama said then. "And it will begin to lift the cloud of debt and the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over our economy."
Even so, the fiscal fight had tiptoed close to the cliff of the Treasury exhausting its resources, leading Standard & Poor's to downgrade the credit rating of the United States government for the first time ever.
Two years later, Obama was again celebrating a breakthrough with Congress over the government's spending and debt limit.
This time -- in the wake of Obama's 2012 reelection and Democrats picking up seats in the House and Senate -- a standoff with the House GOP majority ended in the conservative lawmakers conceding on almost all of their demands, with both parties in the Senate hammering out a deal.
"We've got to get out of the habit of governing by crisis," Obama said at the time.
Mitch McConnell looks to President Joe Biden after Biden arrived at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport in Hebron, Ky., Jan. 4, 2023.
Patrick Semansky/AP, FILE
A 2013 ABC News poll showed that 54% of Americans agreed with Obama's handling of the issue and only 40% agreed with Republicans' handling.
However, that disapproval didn't appear to bring with it any broader voter reaction, with the GOP seeing gains in the 2014 midterms.
Since then, the debt limit has either been paused or increased eight times, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center, with Congress largely choosing to simply extend the debt limit rather than hold a vote on raising it.
"It should be done in a bipartisan way. It always has been," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on CNN last week, seeking to play down the possibility of another bruising battle.
"I think Republicans learned their lesson," he said then. "They suffered, we won the election after that [in 2012], and they will hopefully come and work with us."
With the debt ceiling looming again as a priority and a problem, some other lawmakers are getting frustrated.
"I've blamed both sides for a long time," one House Republican said. "It's an inherent problem that we must get serious about."
The House Democratic aide took this view: "I think both sides will run aggressive messaging on this and, in the end, both will get blamed. Voters tend to channel anger at who is 'in charge.' In this instance, that includes a bipartisan group of leaders because of the current divide."
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Biden and Republicans seem set for debt ceiling fight, reviving fraught ...
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The White House is refusing to negotiate with hardline Republicans on raising the debt ceiling because it believes enough of them will eventually back off their demands, as a growing chorus of investors, business groups and moderate conservatives warn of the dangers of edging towards a default.
The high-stakes deadlock is widely expected to last for months, and could come down to the last minute as each side tests the other ahead of June when the U.S. government might be forced to default on paying its debt.
As the White House calls for House of Representatives Republicans to lift the debt ceiling to avoid economic chaos, it plans to highlight their threats to spending programs and the global economy, aides and allies of President Joe Biden say.
"Leading congressional Republicans have themselves admitted in the past that default would trigger an economic collapse, killing millions of jobs and decimating 401k plans," White House spokesperson Andrew Bates told Reuters. "But hardline MAGA Republicans are now advocating for this outcome."
The U.S. government hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Thursday, a figure that reflects money already spent by the government. House Republicans want cuts to government programs
before they will approve a higher ceiling; a similar demand sparked a 2011 credit rating downgrade and chaos in financial markets.
But the White House's strategy has its risks, given the unpredictable nature of the hardline Republicans in the House, some Democrats say.
Certainly there are segments of the House Republican caucus, and in the broader sort of conservative atmosphere, that are fairly explicitly making the case that it wouldnt be the worst thing to not come to a deal with Democrats, said Tobin Marcus, who served as an economic adviser to then Vice President Biden during a 2011 debt ceiling fight.
Republicans call the idea of a default alarmist.
"We're not going to default on the debt. We have the ability to manage servicing and paying our interest. But we similarly should not blindly increase the debt ceiling," Representative Chip Roy, a leading conservative, told Reuters.
The game of chicken comes as the White House prepares Biden's expected re-election campaign. Biden, 80, is expected to announce in February that he plans to run for a second term, and aides plan to focus on the rock-solid labor market, falling costs and threats from "extreme" Republicans.
The debt ceiling fight could help Biden here, some strategists say.
Some aides think he has plenty to gain from being seen as "the adult in the room" facing an opposition willing to tank the economy. Democrats are planning to deploy that theme in the 2024 election even if an agreement is reached quickly on the debt ceiling.
The White House is also flagging Republicans' vague plans to prioritize some federal spending over others as the debt limit nears, and suggestions from others that spending on Social Security be targeted.
Biden on Monday dismissed some lawmakers as "fiscally demented."
Meanwhile, the economic picture remains mixed.
Biden and top U.S. officials have repeatedly said they believe the economy's growth can slow to more sustainable levels, without putting people out of work. The so-called "soft landing" is what the Federal Reserve is aiming for as well, though they have conceded that goal may be elusive.
Retail sales fell the most in a year in December, suggesting growth is ebbing in the consumption-driven U.S. economy. Factory output, a barometer on the president's goal to revive U.S. manufacturing, also recorded its biggest drop in nearly two years last month.
Biden didn't mention these figures when they were released, but praised a different economic report also released on Wednesday on producer prices that showed progress in taming inflation, the administration's top economic concern.
"We've got the most vibrant economy in the world right now - in the world," Biden said in a political speech on Monday. "We're doing better than any other major nation in the world today."
Trillions in spending authorized in the first two years of Biden's presidency is expected to be distributed over the coming years, which the White House says will help U.S. growth and stave off recession.
A failure to raise the debt ceiling could have the opposite effect.
"From both an economic and a financial perspective, a failure to raise the debt ceiling would be an unmitigated disaster," said David Kelly, chief global strategist for JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) funds.
"While a failure to increase the debt ceiling is the most immediate fiscal threat to the economy and markets in 2023, damage could also be done either by continuing to neglect deficits altogether or by inflicting very sharp fiscal tightening on an economy which is now thoroughly hooked on the drugs of monetary and fiscal stimulus."
Reporting by Trevor HunnicuttEditing by Heather Timmons and Alistair Bell
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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