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Two longtime New York City fixtures are enmeshed in a hotly contested primary fight for the Republican nomination in the race to succeed Mayor Bill de Blasio, a Democrat.

A poll released last week by WPIX-Channel 11, NewsNation and Emerson College showed Curtis Sliwa, founder of the crime-prevention group Guardian Angels, ahead of Fernando Mateo, a politically connected entrepreneur and longtime advocate for taxi drivers and bodega owners, by 33% to 27%, with 40% of thoseRepublican registered voters who were polled still undecided.

Despite its closeness, the June 22 Republican primary between the former friends turned foes hasnt garnered much public attention. Democratic voters outnumber Republicans citywide by more than 6 to 1.

The lack of competitiveness in political races over the past decade spurred a voter-outreach effort earlier this year to get Republican and independent voters to re-enroll as Democrats so they can have a say in the primary race that will likely decide the next mayor. During the outreach, Democrats saw a net gain of nearly 12,000 registered voters, according to the citys Board of Elections.

Still, both Republicans insist they can win the general election. They said they think enough votersespecially moderate Democratswill vote across party lines because of the crime surge that has plagued the city since the Covid-19 pandemic struck last year.

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New York Republicans Hope Public Safety Will Give Them Edge in Mayoral Race - The Wall Street Journal

Hello and welcome to Tuesday.

Life in the Sunshine State Floridas campaign season for 2022 is just starting to get up and running and this emerging story is well so Florida.

The contender Anna Paulina Luna, an up-and-coming Republican candidate for Congress who lost last year to Charlie Crist by about 6 percentage points, has already announced she is making another go for the seat now that Crist is running for governor. Crists seat is seen a potential Republican pickup opportunity since it could get reshaped during redistricting. Luna last year was able to win the Republican primary with support from Rep. Matt Gaetz and Turning Points Charlie Kirk.

Serious allegations But Luna late last week sought a stalking injunction against one of her likely GOP primary challengers and she told authorities that he and two other potential candidates conspired to kill her. In her request for an injunction shared with Playbook, Luna wrote I do not feel safe and I am currently in fear for my life. The document states she has turned over information to law enforcement including screen shots of text messages and that her opponents are working to take me out.

Response The Tampa Bay Times did a lengthy story Monday and William Braddock, the pending candidate that Luna got a temporary injunction against, told the news organization bluntly: This woman is off her rocker and she does not need to be representing anyone. Braddock speculated that Luna herself could wind up getting charged for filing a false police report. Amanda Makki, who lost to Luna in last years primary and was listed in the injunction request as working with Braddock, called the allegations nonsense.

Not everything is public One caveat is that information shared to local law enforcement has not been made public yet and James Blair, a spokesman for Luna, told the Times that he was confident the facts will be public at the appropriate time.

WHERE'S RON? Gov. DeSantis is scheduled to be in Tallahassee for a meeting with the Florida Cabinet.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Florida Playbook will not publish on Friday, June 18. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Monday, June 21. Please continue to follow POLITICO Florida.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: [emailprotected]

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SERIOUS ALLEGATIONS Anna Paulina Luna says potential political opponents conspired to kill her," by Tampa Bay Times Romy Ellenbogen: On May 26, [Matt] Tito and [Anna Paulina] Luna got into disputes while appearing on a radio show together. Tito pressed Luna on having photos taken in uniform after she left military service a discussion point that Braddock called in and brought up. In the petition, Luna mentions May 26 as a day when Braddock sought out interaction with her and coordinated with Tito. After the show, Tito said he told Luna there were no hard feelings, but he said she yelled at him and told him not to do that again. He said Saturday that Luna should suspend her campaign and drop out of the race, calling her unfit for office. He said hes talking to a lawyer about a defamation claim because she named him in her petition for injunction. 'Her goal was to embarrass us, it was to get us to keep us out of the race, to intimidate us,' Tito said."

WHO DO YOU TRUST? Florida Realtors sponsoring 2022 ballot measure to block trust fund sweeps, by POLITICOs Matt Dixon: A political committee setup by the Florida Realtors is sponsoring a 2022 ballot measure that aims to prevent future sweeps to affordable housing trust funds, an issue that pitted housing advocates against legislative leadership during the 2021 legislative session. The proposal is being sponsored by Floridians for Housing, a political committee the Florida Realtors have already stocked with $5 million, according to state election records. Florida Realtors is the largest trade organization for real estate agents in the state.

STRATEGY Rubios play for anti-China vote, by Axios Lachlan Markay: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is making a play for China hawks in Florida as he braces for a competitive re-election fight next year, records show. Why it matters: Hostility toward communism drove a significant number of Latino voters in Florida into the Republican column in 2020. The Rubio campaigns focus on China can capitalize on that trend and a wider and widening American mistrust of Beijing. Whats new: Rubio allies have spent the past year quietly building a list of voters motivated by anti-China sentiment. Now his campaign is openly hitting up their inboxes. Rubio campaign emails with subject lines such as, 'Dems <3 China,' and, 'Is it time to stand up to Communist China?' have started going out to a list maintained by a nonprofit group called Stand Up to China.

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 10: Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee Chariman Marco Rubio (R-FL) listens during a hearing on June 10, 2020 in Washington, DC. The committee is examining the implementation of the CARES Act, which has handed out billions of dollars of government-backed forgivable loans to small-business owners if they keep employees on their payroll. (Photo by Al-Drago-Pool/Getty Images) | Al Drago/Getty Images

DEMINGS TIME Rep. Val Demings continues to make the media rounds following her announcement that she would challenge Sen. Marco Rubio. Demings went on MSNBC on Monday where she called it shameful that Rubio supported efforts by Gov. Ron DeSantis and other governors to cut off supplemental unemployment benefits that were authorized by Congress to run until September. Demings also appeared on Crooked Medias Pod Save America, where she repeated her position that I do not support defunding the police and that vulnerable Black and brown communities dont want less resources but want to be treated with dignity and respect.

JUST AN OVERSIGHT? Exclusive: Nikki Frieds campaign site was liberal in English, moderate in Spanish until she was questioned, by Newsweeks Adrian Carrasquillo: Nikki Fried, Florida's agriculture commissioner, a rising star among state Democrats who hopes to defeat Governor Ron DeSantis next year if she wins the primary, sounds like a tried and true progressive on her English-language website. She touts being an advocate for criminal justice reform, taking on the NRA, and fighting to protect the environment. But as of Friday, all of that was missing from her Spanish-language website. Asked about the discrepancy by Newsweek, Fried's team quickly added the language in Spanish and fleshed out her biography on the page within two hours of the initial request for comment.

BUILDING UP Fried adds staff to Florida gubernatorial campaign, by POLITICOs Bruce Ritchie: Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the only statewide elected Democrat, is adding campaign staff amid her bid to unseat Gov. Ron DeSantis. The details: Fried announced Monday her campaign is hiring Aria Branch of the Perkins Coie law firm as legal adviser and Evelyn Prez-Verda as senior adviser on Latino issues. Prez-Verda advised the 2020 Democratic presidential campaigns of Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden on Latin American policy and messaging. Kevin Cate of CATECOMM will serve as lead ad maker and media adviser. Cate worked for Tom Steyers Democratic presidential campaign in 2019 and was senior adviser to former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum in his losing effort against DeSantis for governor in 2018.

RIPPLE EFFECT Orlando State Rep. Kamia Brown to run for state Senate to succeed Randolph Bracy, by Orlando Sentinel Steven Lemongello: The reshuffling of Central Florida politics following U.S. Rep. Val Demings run for U.S. Senate continues, with state Rep. Kamia Brown, D-Orlando, filing to run for state Senate. Brown, 40, is running in the district currently represented by state Sen. Randolph Bracy, who is vacating his seat to run for Congress to succeed Demings.

IMPORTANT LOCAL RACES Is 2022 the year Florida parents wake up to school board politics? by Tampa Bay Times Jeffrey Solochek: The past year opened eyes, [Sarasota County School Board member Bridget] Ziegler said. Having taken more active roles in their childrens schooling, parents of all political persuasions started paying more attention, she noted, and in many cases got frustrated. They started watching board meetings online. And when the meetings reopened, some began attending to speak out. Many took issue with boards decisions on resuming in-person classes, mandating masks and offering lessons that might have gone unnoticed before. I believe youre going to see parents show up in waves at the ballot box, where, in a typical year, large numbers of voters pass over school board races, Ziegler said. And I think youre going to see lots of people in their 30s or so run for office.

ITS WINDOW DRESSING DeSantis much-touted Florida EVerify immigration law snares no one, by Orlando Sentinels Gray Rohrer: Private employers in Florida have been required to use E-Verify, a federal system for checking the legal status of a potential hire, since the start of the year. But there have been no complaints made to the state agency in charge of enforcing the law in the five and a half months its been in effect. A Department of Economic Opportunity spokeswoman told the Orlando Sentinel there have been no complaints and no enforcement measures taken against any employers since the provisions affecting private businesses took effect Jan. 1.

SENDING A MESSAGE DeSantis signs two bills in Surfside synagogue, emphasizes his support for Israel, by Miami Heralds Marie-Rose Sheinerman and Ana Ceballos and Tampa Bay Times Kirby Wilson: Nearly 300 people gathered at the Shul of Bal Harbour, a sprawling Orthodox synagogue, to greet Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday as he signed into law two bills of particular importance to the South Florida Jewish community one authorizing a local emergency medical service and another mandating a moment of silence in schools. The governor also took the opportunity to make it clear how strongly he supports Israel. He promised shortly after taking office to become the most pro-Israel governor in America.

Florida gets another legal challenge to new elections rules, by News Service of Floridas Jim Saunders

Shevrin Jones says Governor, GOP ginning up faux outrage over critical race theory, by Florida Politics Ryan Nicol

TRAVEL AGENT Senator Rick Scott doesnt get why Biden hasnt visited border, says its not that hard, by Newsweeks Cammy Pedroja: Florida Senator Rick Scott took aim at President Joe Biden's handling of the border crisis on Monday morning, saying I don't get why he won't go to the border, it's not that hard. The first-term Republican senator and former Florida Governor appeared on Fox Business Network's Mornings with Maria, giving an account of how the current immigration crisis is affecting his state. Scott blamed Biden's policies directly for several alleged effects of the border crisis, including human trafficking and increased fentanyl overdoses. My heart goes out to all the people who are being trafficked. It's all caused by Joe Biden and the things that are happening to American citizens because of what Joe Biden has done, Scott said.

A MAGICAL PLACE Armed at Disney World: More tourists caught with concealed guns during pandemic, by Orlando Sentinels Gabrielle Russon: Disney World, the biggest theme park resort on the planet, has seen a spike of people arrested and charged with carrying concealed firearms over the past year, despite being closed for months and operating at reduced capacity because of the COVID-19 epidemic. Some guests are forgetting about their handguns in purses, backpacks, fanny packs, or in one case, a diaper bag, where Orange County deputies found two guns at Epcot last summer. A handful of times, visitors left their weapons in their pockets or strapped to their waist, unaware that Disney bans guns, as they strode up to security.

FACE TIME Vaccinated visitors soon can take off masks at Disney World, by The Associated Press: Walt Disney World in Florida is making it easier to see smiles again, but guests still cant hug the characters. Starting Tuesday, face masks will be optional for visitors to the theme park resort who are vaccinated, though Disney workers wont require proof of vaccination, the company said on its website. Visitors who arent fully vaccinated still will need to wear face masks indoors and on all rides and attractions. Because vaccines arent yet available for children under age 12, they too will have to mask up still.

DeSantis faces questions about cruise industry during bill signing in South Florida, by WPLGs Glenna Milberg

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GOP candidate for Congress says Republicans plotting to kill her Florida Realtors to push citizen initiative The DeSantis crackdown that isn't -...

The IRS is back in Republicans crosshairs following a ProPublica report based on the confidential tax records of the wealthiest Americans.

Republicans have long disliked the tax-collection agency, and have been critical of President BidenJoe BidenFormer Rep. Rohrabacher says he took part in Jan. 6 march to Capitol but did not storm building Saudis picked up drugs in Cairo used to kill Khashoggi: report Biden looking to build momentum for Putin meeting MOREs proposal to give the IRS significantly more resources. Now, GOP lawmakers are amplifying their attacks on the IRS in light of an unauthorized disclosure of tax data to ProPublica, arguing that it undermines taxpayers ability to have confidence in the agency.

This is an astonishing breach of trust that should make taxpayers very concerned, Rep. Kevin BradyKevin Patrick BradyOn The Money: House Democrats line up .5T in spending without budget | GOP takes aim at IRS | House Democrat mulls wealth tax Republicans open new line of attack on IRS To address labor shortages, Congress should try a return-to-work bonus MORE (Texas), the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, told reporters Friday.

He said he expects to bring up the disclosure this coming week with Treasury Secretary Janet YellenJanet Louise YellenTreasury, IRS announce tool to help non-filers register for child tax credit Republicans open new line of attack on IRS Why the Democrats need Joe Manchin MORE, who is scheduled to testify at an annual hearing on the president's budget.

ProPublica published a report Tuesday detailing how prominent U.S. billionaires like Jeff BezosJeffrey (Jeff) Preston BezosOn The Money: House Democrats line up .5T in spending without budget | GOP takes aim at IRS | House Democrat mulls wealth tax What will Elon Musk and Richard Branson do about Jeff Bezos flying into space? Republicans open new line of attack on IRS MORE and Elon MuskElon Reeve MuskOn The Money: House Democrats line up .5T in spending without budget | GOP takes aim at IRS | House Democrat mulls wealth tax What will Elon Musk and Richard Branson do about Jeff Bezos flying into space? Republicans open new line of attack on IRS MORE in certain years have paid little-to-no federal income taxes. The article also found that the richest Americans paid little in taxes when compared to their wealth gains.

It is unclear who provided the tax information to ProPublica or how it was obtained.

We do not know the identity of our source. We did not solicit the information they sent us, ProPublica wrote. The source says they were motivated by our previous coverage of issues surrounding the IRS and tax enforcement, but we do not know for certain that is true. We have considered the possibility that information we have received could have come from a state actor hostile to American interests.

It is illegal for federal employees to make unauthorized disclosures of tax-return information. Administration officials said the matter has been referred to several agencies, including the inspectors general for the Treasury Department, the FBI and the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia.

While lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have raised concerns about the nature of the disclosure, Republicans in particular have been hammering the issue.

Prior to the ProPublica report, Republicans had been criticizing proposals in Bidens $1.8 trillion American Families Plan to increase compliance with tax laws by providing the IRS with an additional $80 billion over a decade and to increase the amount of information that financial institutions report to the agency about account activity. Republicans are using the ProPublica article to step up their criticisms of those proposals.

"This most recent publication of taxpayer data is especially concerning in light of the Administrations proposal to provide the IRS with a massive amount of unprecedented mandatory funding aimed partly at mandating collection of additional private and personal information from everyday Americans through financial institutions, including detailed information about their checking and savings accounts," Senate Finance Committee Republicans said in a letter Friday to the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA).

Conservatives predicted that the disclosure of the tax documents would doom Bidens IRS enforcement proposal.

I think this kills the effort, said Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist.

Brady said the disclosure to ProPublica has close to dealt a death blow to the White White Houses plans.

Republicans said that the recent disclosure of wealthy Americans' tax records is not the first time that there has been an unauthorized disclosure of tax information.

GOP lawmakers also speculated about the motivations behind the disclosure, given that the article comes as Democrats are pushing to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations to pay for Bidens infrastructure proposals. Republicans generally are opposed to Democrats proposals to raise taxes on the rich and corporations.

It looks political at this time when this information is being used even today to advance the Democrats narrative that the wealthy individuals dont pay enough of their taxes, Rep. Lloyd SmuckerLloyd Kenneth SmuckerGOP's Gohmert, Clyde file lawsuit over metal detector fines Republicans open new line of attack on IRS House GOP fights back against mask, metal detector fines MORE (R-Pa.) said at a Ways and Means Committee hearing on Thursday.

Its not new for Republicans to criticize the IRS, particularly when a Democrat is in the White House.

The agency was a major target of conservatives during the Obama administration following a 2013 report from TIGTA that found the agency had subjected Tea Party groups applications for tax-exempt status to extra scrutiny.

A subsequent report in 2017 from the inspector general found that there were also left-leaning groups subjected to extra scrutiny.

Republican strategist Ford OConnell said the Tea Party controversy of the Obama era is still on the minds of many GOP voters, and that attacking the IRS in the wake of the ProPublica report makes sense politically for Republicans.

If the goal is to fire up the base before 2022, certainly just uttering the letters I-R-S will do that, he said.

Many working-class Republicans are no fans of the rich, but they do believe its only a matter of time before the taxman cometh for them, OConnell said.

Democrats have also expressed concerns about the disclosure of tax information, and are supportive of investigations. But they have also sought to put a focus on the contents of the ProPublica article, arguing that its findings highlight the need to raise taxes on the rich.

Administration officials have defended the White House proposal to increase the amount of information banks report to the IRS, saying it would help collect more of the taxes already owed.

Mark Mazur, deputy assistant secretary for tax policy at Treasury, said at Thursdays Ways and Means hearing that the proposal would help the IRS better focus on situations of gross noncompliance that deserve some attention.

Democrats also pushed back on GOP suggestions that there was a politically motivated leak of tax data.

This fits a pattern of trying to stoke distrust of the IRS and limit its ability to fully and fairly administer the tax laws, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard NealRichard Edmund NealRepublicans open new line of attack on IRS Ireland, loved by Biden, is obstacle to tax deal Bottom line MORE (D-Mass.) said in a statement.

It is disheartening that such unsubstantiated accusations are being made at a time when we are seeking to provide the IRS with funding and staffing to address noncompliance by the wealthiest taxpayers.

Excerpt from:
Republicans open new line of attack on IRS | TheHill - The Hill

The humorist and author Mary Lasswell once wrote that God made Texas on his day off, for pure entertainment, because you can find a little bit of everything and a lot of nothing here.

Texas has embarked upon a campaign to make it more difficult for registered voters to cast their ballots.

Thats a fitting epitaph for the ongoing battle over voting rights in the nations second-largest state, which has taken a turn toward the surreal over the past two weeks. But for as laughable as the apparent implosion of Texas Republicans voter suppression efforts might be, theyre also a sobering reminder of the continuing impact of the U.S. Supreme Courts evisceration of the federal Voting Rights Act in 2013.

Lets start at the beginning. Like a handful of other states in which Republicans control all three branches of government, Texas has embarked upon a campaign to make it more difficult for registered voters to cast their ballots at least putatively in response to never-substantiated claims about fraud and other malfeasance during the 2020 election (in which, it should be noted, former President Donald Trump won Texas by over 630,000 votes).

At the forefront of that campaign is the misleadingly named Election Integrity Protection Act, or, as its referred to locally, SB7. The Texas Senate passed SB7 shortly after 6:00 a.m. on the Sunday of Memorial Day weekend, after voting on party lines to expedite consideration of the measure and to allow for last-minute addition of un-debated amendments. Among other things, the bill would:

Democrats in the Texas House managed to block final passage of the bill by staging a walk-out which deprived the lower chamber of a quorum on the last day of its scheduled legislative session (the Texas legislature is, believe it or not, only a part-time concern). Because of the timing, the move effectively killed the bill, at least for the moment.

Something strange has happened in the intervening fortnight: Some Republican members of the Texas legislature appear to be having second thoughts.

But Governor Abbott, who, in response, has threatened to defund the legislature by vetoing its budget (never mind the state constitutional questions such a move would provoke), has also suggested that hell add the bill to matters he directs the legislature to take up in a special session that hes likely to call for later this summer. In the immediate aftermath of the Democratic walkout, then, it seemed like only a matter of time before SB7 would make its way to the Governors desk for signature.

But something strange has happened in the intervening fortnight: Some Republican members of the Texas legislature appear to be having second thoughts. The ban on Sunday morning voting was chalked up to a typo. The provision allowing judges more easily to overturn election results has since been described by one of the bills sponsors (who claimed not to know who had added that provision to the bill) as horrendous. And the list goes on. Even the staunchest defenders of the bill have had trouble defending its most controversial provisions now that theyve been subjected to meaningful (which is to say, any) public scrutiny.

There are, of course, two possible explanations for these lawmakers after-the-fact recriminations: Theyre either telling the truth (and so were about to railroad through significant voting restrictions of which they were unaware); or theyre not (and are unwilling to defend provisions publicly that they were all too happy to support privately).

We may never know which is more accurate. But the larger point here is that this is no way to run a railroad and its certainly no way for the nations second-largest state to revise its election laws. Indeed, before 2013, most of this nonsense would not have been possible.

Under the Voting Rights Act of 1965, Texas was a preclearance jurisdiction. In English, that meant that, every time the state wanted to change its election laws, it needed the changes to be pre-cleared by the Justice Department to ensure that the changes were not an effort to unlawfully or unconstitutionally deprive individuals of their right to vote. If the Justice Department rejected proposed changes, states could challenge that decision in federal court. But the preclearance regime exerted powerful leverage on states to avoid such mischief when it came to rewriting the rules for voting, since they would never get the last word.

In 2013, though, the Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, effectively gutted the Voting Rights Act when it held that the formula the statute used for identifying preclearance jurisdictions was unconstitutional at least in part because it had not been updated in years and in part because, by treating states differently, it deprived them of their equal sovereignty under the Constitution. Although the majority opinion in Shelby County, written by Chief Justice John Roberts, invited Congress to fix the coverage formula to put the preclearance regime back on firm constitutional footing, it did so knowing that political obstacles especially the shadow of the filibuster in the Senate rendered such reform a dead-letter.

And so, here in 2021, while the filibuster continues to prevent the Senate from taking up federal election reforms passed by the House, the mischief that the VRA was enacted to prevent is, instead, flourishing as states enact, or come perilously close to enacting, voting restrictions that their supporters refuse to publicly defend.

For 50 years, the Voting Rights Act made it much harder for state legislatures to play such transparent partisan politics with our right to vote. Until and unless Congress restores it, though, its up to us the voters to hold our state representatives responsible for using the fiction of election abuses as justification for the suppression of votes that are perfectly legal, but that they just dont like.

Steve Vladeck is a professor of law at the University of Texas School of Law whose teaching and research focus on federal jurisdiction, constitutional law and national security law. He is co-editor-in-chief of the Just Security blog (@just_security) and co-host of "The National Security Law Podcast" (@nslpodcast).

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Texas Republicans clearly didn't read the election bill they almost passed - MSNBC

Republicans dont like President Biden very much. Among Republicans, his approval rating sits somewhere between 10 and 20 percent in most recent surveys, and his disapproval rating hovers between 75 to 90 percent.

On the one hand, theres nothing that unusual about members of the other party holding disproportionately negative attitudes about the president. Democrats similarly really disliked former President Trump. Bidens topline approval rating also isnt that bad hes currently at 53 percent approval and 41 percent disapproval, per FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker thanks to positive opinions of the president among Democrats (overwhelmingly) and independents (albeit marginally).

Yet, there is something different about GOP opposition to Biden, something that has only emerged as a trend in recent years: Most Republicans dont just disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president they strongly disapprove of his job performance.

We looked at presidential approval polling data from the first six months of presidencies dating back to George W. Bush and found that, compared to Bushs early tenure, fewer Americans from the opposing party are lukewarm in their disapproval of the president. Meanwhile, the share of respondents who say they strongly disapprove of the president has trended upward during Trump and Bidens time in office. Consider that only around 3 in 10 Democrats strongly disapproved of Bush during the first six months of his presidency, but more than 6 in 10 Republicans have expressed strong disapproval of Biden over the first roughly five months of his time in office.

Average share of Americans from the party thats out of office who strongly or somewhat approved or disapproved of the presidents performance during the first six months of his first term

Bidens approval ratings based on polls released as of June 9, 2021.

To avoid overweighting any one pollster, approval ratings were calculated based on an average of polls from each pollster.

Source: Polls

Perhaps unsurprisingly, given his abysmal overall approval rating, Trump had the most damning strong disapproval rating, on average, with 72 percent of Democrats saying they disapproved of his job as president. But Biden isnt that much better off than Trump, as a similar share of the Republicans who disapprove of Biden do so strongly.

Members from the other party were once more willing to give a new president some benefit of the doubt early on or at least, their opposition was not quite so baked in, as the figures for both Bush and Barack Obama suggest. Whats more, there hasnt been a corresponding change in how strongly the presidents own party feels about him. Members of the presidents party overwhelmingly support him, but there hasnt been an uptick in those who say they strongly approve of him.

This lack of crossover support for presidents in their first term in office points toward one of the most animating forces in American politics today: Increased disdain and hatred of ones political opponents, known as negative partisanship. As the chart below shows, opinions about the other party have become far more unfavorable since the late 1970s. In other words, its not that surprising that Americans are far less likely to approve of and more likely to intensely dislike presidents from the other party right from the moment they take office.

Such hostile sentiments reflect a world in which each major party increasingly believes the other poses a threat to the countrys well-being. Consider that in 2019, the Pew Research Center found that about three-fourths of Americans thought that Democrats and Republicans not only disagreed over plans and policies, but that they also couldnt agree on basic facts. This is certainly borne out in attitudes toward the economy: Democrats thought the economy was immediately doing worse once Trump took office, while Republicans immediately thought it was getting worse after Biden won the 2020 election. And in the lead-up to the 2020 contest, Pew also found that about 9 in 10 of both Biden and Trump supporters felt that the victory of the other partys presidential nominee would lead to lasting harm, a sign of how each side increasingly finds the other to be an unacceptable political alternative.

Looking ahead, such deep dislike will likely keep Republicans opposed to Biden regardless of his administrations actions. It also means that like Trump, Biden will likely have to rely on his own partys support to buoy his overall numbers. So far, Biden has managed to pull that off with approval from around 90 percent of Democrats, but fierce Republican opposition might mean that his overall approval rating moves only by small degrees, like Trumps, making it hard for him to crack the mid-50s overall.

Now, its possible that a major crisis could weaken Democratic approval toward Biden, much like the onset of the Great Recession helped take Republican approval of Bush below 70 percent for much of the end of his presidency. However, Trumps overall approval rating and approval among Republicans remained relatively unchanged amid the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the fact that a majority of Americans didnt think Trump was handling the coronavirus response well.

So as Biden closes in on six months in office, its clear that attitudes toward his presidency are sharply polarized, with Republicans intense dislike of Biden reflecting what we know about the deep antipathy that Americans feel toward the opposing party even in the first few months of a presidents time in office. Those are sentiments that are likely to keep both camps more firmly entrenched in their partisan camps moving forward.

Mary Radcliffe contributed research.

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Republicans Really, Really Dislike Biden. But Its Not Just About Him. - FiveThirtyEight