Mediaboss Marketing

Arizona candidates for Senate: Republican Sen. Martha McSally (left) and Democrat Mark Kelly.(Photo: The Republic, Arizona Daily Star)

From the Republican uh-oh department: Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is sliding in the polls, dropping four percentage points in a month.

McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.

While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSallys 42%, in May its now 51%-38%.

The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly.

McSally is doing terribly, pollster Mike Noble told me on Monday. Theres no way to find a bright spot on that one.

And thats not even the bad news for McSally.

The bad news comes from Maricopa County, where Republicans rule.

At least, they did rule, until Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally there in 2018 -- stealing 88 mostly-suburban precincts that normally would go to the Republican nominee.

Arizona Sen. Martha McSally has lost ground to Democrat Mark Kelly, according to the latest tracking poll from OH Predictive Insights.(Photo: OH Predictive Insights)

McSally's declining supportlies within the 4 percent margin of error inthe May tracking poll, a blend of live and automated calls made betweenMay 9 to May 11.Buther Maricopa County numbers are a disaster.

In May 2019, this same tracking poll showed Kelly up over McSally, 46%-41%, among likely voters in Maricopa County.

In May 2020, Kelly has climbed to 54% in Maricopa County while McSally has dropped to 36%.

Just think about that for a moment. Kelly has gone from a five-point advantage in Maricopa County to an 18-point cruise.

Polling shows Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is getting killed in the one place she must win.(Photo: OH Predictive Insights)

Thats a stunnerwhen you consider that Maricopa County in recent years always hasgonefor Republicans (well, except for now-ex-state Superintendent Diane Douglas and McSally).

Morestunning still: the fact that the state's most populous countyis the one place that McSally must win if she wants to hang onto that Senate seat yet she has done nothing to appeal to the independents and moderate Republican voters who likely will decide this race.

"Maricopa County is the key for Republicans winning," Noble said. "It'sthekey to Trumps re-election but its also key for the Senate seat. Maricopa County is where the battle is at and right now its not going well for McSally."

Ive never understood McSallys strategy why she decided to become a Donald Trump pocket pal when it was obvious she lost in 2018 because she campaignedas a Donald Trump pocket pal.

Now shes facing a campaign thatwill be solely a referendum on Trump.

Whose approval rating, by the way, now stands at 45% in Arizona, according to the poll.

Of course, the four-point drop in McSallys numbers over the last month could be attributable to the campaign ads that are pummeling her.

The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump conservative super PAC run in part by George Conway, began running attack ads against McSally two days before this poll went into the field. Democratic groups have been beating her up on the airwaves since last fall.

Republicans, meanwhile, have beenmostly silent on the campaign front. The Senate Leadership Fund, run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, plansto spend $9.2 million to try to boost McSally but not until the fall.

Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, faced with possible loss of the Senate, recently pushed the panic button,announcingplans tomove ahead in June with a $5.7 million ad campaign to try to save the appointed senator who nowtrails by double digits.

Me? I'm wondering what took them so long.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com.

Read or Share this story: https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2020/05/19/sen-martha-mcsally-slides-new-poll-and-thats-not-even-bad-news/5218402002/

Continue reading here:
New poll shows Sen. Martha McSally losing ground to Mark Kelly and that's not even the bad news - AZCentral

Follow CleanTechnica on Google News.

May 19th, 2020 by Steve Hanley

The Republican party has allowed itself to be captured lock, stock, and barrel by the fossil fuel industry. While ordinary people struggle to pay their bills after being laid off because of the coronavirus, Republicans are putting together a $750 billion lifeline for oil and gas companies. Theres no money for day care, school lunches, or health insurance, but there is always money for Big Oil.

It used to be that corruption in government was a bad thing. President Eisenhower had to fire Sherman Adams, his chief of staff, after he accepted expensive gifts a vicua coat and an oriental rug from Bernard Goldfine, a Boston textile manufacturer who was under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission. Today, the corruption is right out in the open and the perpetrators dare anyone to say anything about it. Their contempt for the rule of law is on full public display and they are proud of it.

One of the things Republicans are best at is concocting a good cover story. In politics, it is called talking points, but in reality it is simply telling the same lie over and over and over again until it becomes perceived as the truth. After all, if every Republican member of the House and Senate is parroting it and if the talking heads at Faux News are bleating about it nonstop, it has to be true, right?

The coronavirus pandemic has knocked the stuffing out of the global economy. Businesses large and small are failing. Workers with no income are facing evictions. State and local governments that depend on sales tax revenue are in danger of going bankrupt. And it you think this is bad, the Republican spinmeisters say, just wait till you see the damage the Green New Deal will do! That was pretty much the headline for a recent article in the Washington Examiner, an extreme right wing publication.

According to the New York Times, Elizabeth Harrington, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, wrote in an opinion piece for The Hill that Democrats think a pandemic is the perfect opportunity to kill millions more jobs with carbon-cutting plans. Yup, you got that right, Liz. Democrats are all about slashing employment so people wont have to take time off from work to vote.

Recently, Mercedes Schlapp, a senior Tramp campaign adviser, told Fox Business that Joe Biden supports rainbow and unicorn deals like the Green New Deal that would raise energy prices and harm an already-ailing economy. These Republican nut jobs never explain why the nations largest utility companies are racing to build solar power plants and wind farms if their cost of producing electricity is so much higher. In what alternate universe do these people live? Do they ever spend two seconds asking themselves if the venomous words dripping from their lips are true?

All around the world, people are noticing the skies are clearer than they were before as a result of lower carbon emissions during the coronavirus shutdowns and they like what they see. The Republicans claim the only way to keep the skies clear is to destroy the economy. Horse puckey! Any number of climate advocates say the Green New Deal, the transition to renewable energy, and the EV revolution will create millions of well-paying employment opportunities in the US and around the world.

So what are Republicans scared of? Among other things, they worry their primary source of campaign contributions will dry up as the fossil fuel industry declines. They are more concerned with self preservation than doing their job, which is representing the best interest of the people they work for. Many years ago, Jack Kennedy wrote a book called Profiles In Courage, in which he lauded political leaders who made hard choices that benefited the country even when doing so went against their own self interest.

What we have today is a bunch of entitled whiners who think staying in power is more important than anything else, especially governing. If they wrote a book, it would be called Perspectives In Cowardice. The conundrum is that Republicans have taught themselves to loathe government. That compels them to become part of it so they can blow it up from inside, something the Cowardly Liar of Pennsylvania Avenue has done at every opportunity. Rather than lead, he lashes out at every target he can think of China, WHO, Europe, NATO, Iran, and Nancy Pelosi being only the top items on a very long list. Sociopaths are never wrong and never feel the slightest concern for the suffering of others.

The Republicans line of attack is going to be that the Democrats are trying to create a massive Green New Deal thats going to create a lot of spending at a time when we just cant afford that, Ron Bonjean, a veteran Republican operative, tells the New York Times. Hes right in one sense. After the Republicans are done ladling out money to help their friends like the $55 million that went to prop up two private aircraft companies, whose owners are big contributors to Republicans, and $1.5 trillion tax cuts for the the wealthy there wont be much money left over for other things like providing access to healthcare for all Americans, even those who cant trace their roots back to northern Europe.

Mark Jacobson of Stanford has published several treatises about how renewable energy can lower global carbon emissions and create millions of jobs. Heres a synopsis of his findings:

Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries. The roadmaps call for a 100% transition of all-purpose business-as-usual (BAU) energy to wind-water-solar (WWS) energy, efficiency, and storage by 2050 with at least 80% by 2030. Our studies on grid stability find that the countries, grouped into 24 regions, can match demand exactly from 2050 to 2052 with 100% WWS supply and storage. We also derive new cost metrics. Worldwide, WWS energy reduces end-use energy by 57.1%, aggregate private energy costs from $17.7 to $6.8 trillion/year (61%), and aggregate social (private plus health plus climate) costs from $76.1 to $6.8 trillion/year (91%) at a present value capital cost of $73 trillion. WWS energy creates 28.6 million more long-term, full-time jobs than BAU energy and needs only 0.17% and 0.48% of land for new footprint and spacing, respectively. Thus, WWS requires less energy, costs less, and creates more jobs than does BAU.

Here are few things to note. One, he and his colleagues say the transition to zero carbon energy will be expensive, about $73 trillion. Wow! Thats a lot of money! Shouldnt we run and tell the king? Thats what Republicans would do. But if you look at his plan as an investment, it more than pays for itself. Jacobson says fuel cost will decrease by about $10 trillion a year. Right there, his plan pays for itself in just a decade. But wait. Theres more. The indirect social costs from lower sea levels, less drought, better health outcomes for people, and the like will drop by nearly $70 trillion a year.

Hello? Is anyone listening? Doing nothing will cost many times more than doing something. And, Jacobson says, a clean energy revolution will add almost 30 million more jobs worldwide than continuing on with the business as usual model we have now. This is a no-brainer, people. If someone told you a $100,000 investment in your property would save you $10,000 a year forever, you would take that deal in a heartbeat, wouldnt you?. So why arent people lining up to support Jacobsons plan?

Because some very wealthy people and powerful corporations dont like what it will do their bottom line. For this the world should suffer? And yet for reasons that are inexplicable, ordinary people with functioning brains insist on voting for people who wouldnt pour water on them if they were on fire. Why is that?

Its because Republicans, with an assist from Faux News, are very, very good at telling lies over and over again. They insist that any government policies that makes life better for ordinary people are socialism and socialism is what led Castro, Pol Pot, Mao Zedong, Josef Stalin, and other monsters to exterminate millions of their own citizens. I had a workman in my home recently who had fled Cuba in the 60s, and he told me explicitly that the Green New Deal would lead to the assassination of many Americans because thats what happened in Cuba when Castro came to power.

Come on, America. You know better than to swallow this codswallop. If COVID-19 has taken a sledgehammer to the economy, climate change will take a wrecking ball to it. We could learn much from rereading The Three Little Pigs. We have built an economy of straw and it is going to get clobbered by climate change in the not too distant future.

We need to take intelligent steps to build a stronger, more resilient economy starting today. Lets stop believing the nattering nabobs of negativism. America has always been strongest when it looks forward, not backward. Lets stop looking in the mirror and plan for a stable, sustainable future instead.

Tags: economic impact of climate change, green new deal, mark jacobson

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his homes in Florida and Connecticut or anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. You can follow him onTwitter but not on any social media platforms run by evil overlords like Facebook.

Continued here:
Lies Republicans Tell Themselves And You About The Green New Deal - CleanTechnica

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

So far, Americans have largely supported using social distancing to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. According to a Washington Post/University of Maryland poll published this week, most Americans agree that its necessary to wear a mask, stay at home when possible, avoid gatherings and keep 6 feet away from others in public. And while Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say these measures are important, sizable majorities in both parties still agree that they are necessary. But while Americans are mostly on the same page about current social distancing measures, there are also signs that they increasingly disagree about where the crisis is headed, with Democrats saying the worst is yet to come and Republicans saying the worst is behind us.

According to a CNN poll released this week, nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us, while only about a quarter of Republicans said the same. This marked a 15 percentage-point drop among Democrats since CNN last asked the question in April, and a 44-point drop among Republicans. A YouGov/Economist poll also found a similar divide this week; 58 percent of Democrats said the pandemic is going to get worse compared with only 20 percent of Republicans. (The pollster included a third choice, We are currently in the worst part of the pandemic, which just over 20 percent of both Democrats and Republicans chose.) And a daily tracking poll conducted by Navigator Research also found that between mid-April and early May, the share of Americans who thought the worst was yet to come declined sharply. However, that number has been ticking back up again since May 4, which may reflect increased concern that the virus will spread as more states begin to ease restrictions on businesses and public gatherings.

The polls this week also show that Americans are adjusting their expectations about when the need for social distancing is likely to end. According to the Washington Post/University of Maryland poll, two-thirds of Americans think that it will be at least the end of July before people can safely gather in groups of 10 or more, up from 45 percent who thought so a month ago. This months total includes 80 percent of Democrats and 54 of Republicans. And this weeks YouGov/Economist poll found that a 47 percent plurality including a third of Republicans and almost two-thirds of Democrats believe it will be at least September before it is safe to end social distancing measures.

Concerns about catching the virus have stayed fairly consistent over the month of May so far. According to FiveThirtyEights coronavirus poll tracker, the share of Americans who say they are somewhat or very concerned that they or someone they know will get sick stayed mostly steady at about 68 percent.

And the share of Americans who say theyre concerned about the viruss impact on the economy has also stayed about the same hovering at around 87 percent for the past six weeks.

The share of Americans who approve of Trumps handling of the virus response, however, has declined about 4 points over the past month, though in the shorter term his rating remains essentially unchanged, with 43.3 percent approving of the job hes doing handling the pandemic this week and 43.5 percent approving last week.

Attitudes toward Trumps handling of the crisis are, expectedly, very partisan, with a majority of Republicans approving and a majority of Democrats opposed. Feelings seem to be more mixed about leaders outside the federal government, however according to a new Pew Research poll, state and local officials, on average, continue to enjoy more bipartisan support than Trump. However, Republicans appear to be souring on local and state officials work faster than Democrats are. For instance, since March, the share of Republicans who think their local elected officeholders are doing a good or excellent job has declined by 12 points, while the share of Democrats who say the same has remained unchanged at 66 percent. Likewise, Republican approval of the job state officials were doing declined by 12 percentage points, while Democratic approval dropped by only 5 points. Additionally, Republicans, who were more likely than Democrats to rate public health officials such as those at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention favorably in March were less likely to do so now. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans said health officials are doing a good or excellent job, down 16 points since March, while about three-quarters of Democrats felt health officials were doing a good job in both polls.

However, at this point, the majority of Americans are not yet frequenting public places despite growing disagreement on where the coronavirus crisis is headed next. A Morning Consult poll conducted last week asked Americans about whether theyre going to public places and socializing with others, and it didnt find much of a partisan gap in reported behavior. So for now at least, it seems like many Americans are staying put, although that might change in the coming weeks.

According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker, 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.0 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -8.4 points). At this time last week, 43.3 percent approved and 51.4 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -8.1 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 44.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.4 percent, for a net approval rating of -7.1 points.

In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.7 percentage points (48.9 percent to 41.2 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.9 points (48.5 percent to 40.6 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.8 points (48.6 percent to 40.8 percent).

Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.

CORRECTION (May 15, 2020, 10:01 a.m.): A previous version of this article reversed President Trumps job approval numbers: 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job hes doing and 52.0 percent disapprove, not the other way around.

Excerpt from:
Democrats Say The Worst Of The Coronavirus Is Yet To Come. Republicans Say The Worst Is Over. - FiveThirtyEight

Republicans appeared poised to win two congressional seats one in Wisconsin and one in California in special election races that are being watched closely as preludes to the general election in November as many states will move to mail-in voting amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In Wisconsin, the Republican Tom Tiffany notched an easy victory, in a reliably red district. In California, early results indicated the Republican Mike Garcia is on track to retake a seat that Democrats had flipped in 2018. Both seats will be up for election again in November.

The California vote was based almost entirely on mailed-in ballots, and the full results likely wont be clear for days. Officials will accept ballots postmarked by election day, even if they arrive up to three days later.

Whoever wins the California special election would fill the seat of the former US representative Katie Hill, who resigned amid scandal in late 2019. The circumstances of Hills resignation she quit amid allegations that she had an affair with a staffer, and after private photos of her had been published online without her consent had brought national attention to the race. Donald Trump, who endorsed Garcia and alleged that the election was rigged because of the opening of a new voting center in the district, also ensured that the race was closely watched, especially by Democrats who believed it would be a referendum on the president.

On Wednesday morning, Garcia, a former navy fighter pilot, was ahead of the Democratic California state legislator Christy Smith by 55.9% to 44.1%, preliminary results from the California secretary of states office said.

It is looking extremely good, Garcia said on a conference call. I wont give a victory speech tonight. Well save that for hopefully tomorrow night as the data comes in.

Smith earned the endorsements of Barack Obama and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Hills unpopularity in the district, post-scandal, had been a hurdle for her campaign. Prior to the election, the Cook Political Report changed its assessment of the race from lean Democratic to a tossup as the pandemic shut down traditional campaigning through door-knocking and town halls.

Regardless of the outcome, Democrats are hopeful about Smiths chances in the November election. The electorate will be very different then, said Rose Kapolczynski, a Democratic strategist based in Los Angeles. And I still think Smith will have a strong chance.

It is wise to avoid projecting too much about the November elections based on this race, said Paul Mitchell, with the campaign research firm Political Data Inc. To do so would be like predicting the championship based on the results of two-on-two basketball game before the finals, Mitchell said.

Traditionally, older, white, and Republican voters are overrepresented in special elections, Mitchell said. Younger and minority voters, who lean Democratic, are more likely to vote in larger numbers in November.

In Wisconsin, Tiffany, a state senator endorsed by Trump, easily won a special congressional election in a heavily conservative, rural Wisconsin district. But Democrats are likely to watch his margin of victory and consider it evidence of that partys gains if Tiffanys opponent Tricia Zunker performs better than the 20-point defeat the Democrats faced in district in 2018. Preliminary results show Tiffany leading by 14 points.

For Trump to win re-election, red areas have to get redder to balance out blue areas getting bluer, said the Wisconsin Democratic party spokeswoman, Courtney Beyer.

But Tiffany dismissed the argument. Any time you lose by 14 points, I dont think thats a moral victory, he said. This is a decisive victory here.

Tiffany will replace the former reality TV star Sean Duffy, a Republican who retired in September. The district has been vacant since Duffys retirement.

Zunker, the president of the Wausau school board, was trying to become the first Native American from Wisconsin elected to Congress. She pulled in big-name endorsements including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, but the numbers were against her. The district has been under Republican control since 2011 and was redistricted to more heavily favor Republicans.

Read more here:
Republicans appear on track to win two congressional seats - The Guardian

WASHINGTON Top Republicans are evoking concerns about the rising national debt to pump the brakes on coronavirus relief, and Democrats are crying foul.

House Democrats are eyeing a vote as early as Friday on a $3 trillion package that includes aid to state and local governments, assistance for essential workers, an extension of unemployment benefits beyond July and another round of direct payments for families.

"We're taking a look at what we've already done we've added about $3 trillion to the national debt and assessing the effectiveness of that before deciding to go forward," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told reporters Tuesday. "If we reach a decision along with the administration to move to another phase, that'll be the time to interact with the Democrats."

He said the House bill "is not something designed to deal with reality but designed to deal with aspirations this is not a time for aspirational legislation."

Full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak

The budget deficit is projected to rise to a record $3.7 trillion in fiscal year 2020, according to the Congressional Budget Office, although the U.S. continues to borrow at record low interest rates.

Let our news meet your inbox. The news and stories that matters, delivered weekday mornings.

Democrats say Republicans are using the issue now as a pretext to reject additional relief, arguing that they weren't concerned about the debt when they passed the $1.9 trillion tax law or other coronavirus aid measures that helped businesses.

"Well, it's interesting to see what they're saying, becoming now, renewing their fiscal hawk positions that they can barely remember. I have confidence in going big with what we do," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Monday on MSNBC's "All In with Chris Hayes."

"When I saw them give a $2 trillion addition to the national debt in order to give 83 percent of the benefits to the top 1 percent, that was so irresponsible in terms of it did nothing for the economy except heap mountains of debt on our children," she said.

The budget deficit fell sharply during Barack Obama's presidency amid demands from congressional Republicans. But it rose by hundreds of billions of dollars after the GOP took control in 2017 and passed tax cuts and struck deals to increase spending.

The Democrats' new legislation, which is backed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., includes nearly $1 trillion in aid to state and local governments to cover expenses related to the coronavirus and to pay health care workers and teachers. McConnell and other Republicans have used the growing debt to pour cold water on the push.

On the Senate floor Wednesday, Rick Scott, R-Fla., sounded the alarm about the fiscal situation as he railed against "bailing out" states facing budget woes during the pandemic.

"Our national debt and deficits already at unsustainable levels have skyrocketed as Congress has spent almost $3 trillion to address this crisis," Scott said. "At some point, we need to start thinking about the impact this spending will have on our country's financial future and the future of our children and grandchildren."

The battle is less partisan among governors.

"As Congress reconvenes, delivering urgent state fiscal relief must be a top priority. Each day that Congress fails to act, states are being forced to make cuts that will devastate the essential services the American people rely on and destroy the economic recovery before it even gets off the ground," Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a joint statement Wednesday. "This is not a red state or blue state crisis. This is a red white and blue pandemic. The coronavirus is apolitical."

Republicans are digging in their heels less than six months before an election that will shape the U.S. recovery from the coronavirus, foreshadowing political roadblocks that the apparent Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, would have to deal with if he is elected president. The outcome will affect whether the country pursues fiscal restraint or major stimulus efforts to recover from the coronavirus calamity.

Download the NBC News app for full coverage and alerts about the coronavirus outbreak

A task force announced Wednesday by Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., includes some figures who have downplayed the deficit in pursuit of national goals: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Stephanie Kelton, an economics and public policy professor at Stony Brook University in New York. The task force features progressives and moderates who will recommend policy to the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee.

Ocasio-Cortez said Democrats should ignore GOP debt warnings.

"It's absolutely a bad-faith argument," she said in an interview. "They were not concerned about the deficit when they wanted half a trillion dollars that would be leveraged into $4 trillion for Wall Street and their donor buddies. And honestly, you know what? If they are that concerned about the deficit, I'm happy to meet them halfway and roll back the $2 trillion tax cut that they passed just two years ago.

"Aside from that, they don't get to just start whining about the deficit the moment we actually get on the cusp of helping working people," she said.

Sahil Kapur is a national political reporter for NBC News.

Read more:
Democrats accuse Republicans of 'bad faith' as they invoke national debt to pause pandemic aid - NBCNews.com