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Letter to the editor: Republicans need to learn to fight - TribLIVE

Mr. Easter starts with "Grand Forks Republicans, running on shaky ground on the citys north side, didnt yield an inch on election night. ..." and later goes on to call District 42 "a dependable Democrat stronghold." However, District 42, which includes UND and several nearby neighborhoods on the north side of Grand Forks, has largely remained unchanged since 1990 and has never been a Democratic stronghold during that time.

From 1992 to 2020, only one time (2012) did the Democrats win all three legislative seats in District 42. By way of comparison, Republicans have controlled all three seats five times (1994, 1996, 2004, 2016, and 2020). Republicans aren't sitting on "shaky footing;" they are returning to their long periods of dominance in the district. District 42 represents a solid Republican district, which rarely sends a Democrat to represent them in Bismarck. The relevant question Mr. Easter should be asking is not why Democrats lost, but rather, why does District 42 trust Republicans to represent them?

The answer is simple: District 42 Republicans run quality candidates that relate to, listen to, and deliver for their constituents. The District 42 Republican candidates in 2020, Curt Kreun, Emily OBrien and Claire Corey, resonate with all three of the major constituent blocks of District 42 students, working families, and retired citizens. To address their constituents needs, District 42 Republicans are committed to a platform of Jobs, Education and Taxes.

Jobs are critically important to voters. As a student, you need an economy primed to hire you to pay off your student loans, and a growing economy to create plenty of entry-level jobs with growth opportunities. Working families cant afford to survive on entry level pay, and need a vibrant economy for more opportunities and better pay. Retired citizens look toward the future and fear that without jobs in Grand Forks, their children and grandchildren will be forced to leave for Minneapolis. They want to make seeing their family a daily activity and not a rare privilege.

Education has immediate importance for college students, and District 42 Republicans run candidates that understand UND and college students. Working families need a strong public education system to prepare their children for an ever-changing economy, and to equip them for career-paying jobs. District 42 Republicans run candidates that understand not only the importance of public education, but how to actually deliver on quality education. For the retired citizen, the education system is an important benefit for their grandchildren.

While taxes may not be an immediate concern for many college students, they understand the importance of fiscal tax responsibility and how it relates to their future opportunities. For the working families, tax policies are an immediate concern. A 1% property tax hike or a 1% income tax change is the difference between affording a home and being stuck in the apartment. Every dollar matters to working families, and more of their income they are able to keep eases the transition towards family life. A 1-point tax cut on a familys taxes is roughly $600 in their pockets, which helps their budget in a real way. Retired citizens often fear having to reduce their standard of living as a result of diminished income. An increase in their property tax can force them from their home of 40 years and sacrifice their independence.

The success of the District 42 Republicans is not a mystery. They have a diverse set of experiences that resonate with the districts residents, they are honest with their constituents, and they deliver on their campaign promises.

Curt Kreun is a state senator from Grand Forks. Emily OBrien and Claire Cory are members of the state House of Representatives and also are from Grand Forks. All three are Republicans who represent District 42.

EDITORS NOTE: This piece, as submitted, omitted a phrase from the Heralds Nov. 25 report about the District 42 legislative race. The passage, as written by the Herald, was: Eight years ago, it was a dependable Democratic stronghold, referring to the fact that all three delegates from District 42 were Democrats. Four years prior to that, two Democrats represented the district.

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Viewpoint: Republicans on firm footing in District 42 - Grand Forks Herald

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How do we get out of this?

Thats the question preoccupying the right these days. The specific this varies, but what unites all the concerns is the mess Donald Trump has made.

For Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the this is the embarrassing mess in Georgia, where many gettable Republican voters believe theres no point in returning to the polls for the Senate runoff next month.

Hence one of the great ironies of 2020: For two years, Democrats falsely claimed that Republicans had stolen the governors race from Stacey Abrams with voter suppression. Now, because of the presidents tantrum, Republicans are poised to give away two Senate seats and control of the Senate by actually suppressing their own vote with equally false claims of fraud. Even Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, the Trump loyalist who defeated Abrams, is now said to be in on a conspiracy to hand the state to Joe Biden.

For the Republicans whod like to be president, the this theyre trying to extricate themselves from is Trumps captivity of the party.

In 2016, the GOP was trapped in a game-theory version of the parable often attributed to Aesop of belling the cat. Its in the collective interest of all the mice to put a bell on the cat, but its not in the self-interest of any individual mouse to be the one to do it. Each Republican presidential candidate wanted Trump out of the race, but none wanted to volunteer for the political suicide mission to get rid of him at least not until it was too late. By threatening to run again in 2024, Trump has put the presidential hopefuls in the same predicament they faced in 2016.

Even if Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and the rest actually believes the fawning things they say about Trump, none believe them so strongly that they would like to see him maintain his hold on the party and block their paths. But none of them wants bell duty because Trumps ability to slaughter mice is far greater than it was in 2016. They helped build a better mousetrap and now have no idea how to dismantle it.

But this doesnt end there. As Trump and his apparatchiks pull the party down around them, theyre lashing out not just at the democratic system, but at the right itself. Fox News (where I am a contributor) is now a hive of villainy in Trumps eyes for not reading from the approved script. The thinking seems to be that what America and the right need most in the years ahead is a right-of-center media fully committed to a definition of conservatism that begins and ends as a Trump cult of personality, eagerly trafficking in the conspiratorial phantasms that sustain the soon-to-be-former president.

Among many conservatives, Trumps destructive response to his defeat is seen as the problem. That is certainly a problem. But its downstream of the original sin of embracing Trump in the first place. To borrow again from Aesop, it was clear he was a scorpion from the outset.

Progress means getting nearer to the place you want to be, C.S. Lewis observed. And if you have taken a wrong turn, then to go forward does not get you any nearer. If you are on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road; and in that case, the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive man.

The best solution to the rights predicament is to turn around and head back in the right direction they skipped in 2016. But politics is the art of getting the crowd to follow you. And the people who followed Trump down this path understandably fear that if they turn around now, nobody will follow them.

Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief of The Dispatch and the host of The Remnant podcast. His Twitter handle is @JonahDispatch

Categories:Jonah Goldberg Columns | Opinion

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Jonah Goldberg: Republicans need to find a way out of this mess - TribLIVE

Optimism about the economy has taken a nosedive among Republicans. But the economy did not drive the change. The presidential election did.

After President Trumps loss to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., more than 40 percent of Republicans who were polled for The New York Times said they expected their family to be worse off financially in a years time, up from 4 percent in October. Democrats expressed a rise in optimism though not as sharp as the change in Republican sentiment.

The new polling, by the online research firm SurveyMonkey, reaffirms the degree to which Americans confidence in the economys path has become entwined with partisanship and ideology. In the days after the election, for the first time since Mr. Trump took office in 2017, Democrats and independent voters expressed higher levels of confidence in the economy than Republicans did.

Democrats in November were nearly three times as likely as they were in October to say they expected good or very good business conditions in the country over the next year. They were more than twice as likely as they were in October to say they expected continuous good times economically over the next five years.

Republicans were actually more likely to say that they were doing well in November, compared to October. But nearly three in four said they expected periods of widespread unemployment or depression in the next several years, up from three in 10 in October.

Nancy Veits, a Republican voter in Los Angeles County, said the economy was a major factor in her decision to vote for Mr. Trump. A retired small-business owner, Ms. Veits, 81, said that she appreciated the presidents commitment to deregulation and that she feared for the economy after his departure.

The economy was working, she said. I think that under Biden its going to be more difficult.

David Keyston, a survey respondent in Waco, Texas, has a similar set of concerns. He runs his own nonprofit business distributing books about alternative health and healing. Business was good before the pandemic, he said, and has actually improved since the virus began to spread.

Mr. Keyston, 66, said that he didnt like Mr. Trumps penchant for Twitter or his demeanor in office. But he said he liked many of Mr. Trumps policies, like his tax cuts and his promise to build a border wall and to keep the United States out of wars. And he said Mr. Trump had managed the economy well both before and during the pandemic.

I think hes tried under the circumstances to do the best he can to maintain some level of economic stability, he said.

Now, Mr. Keystons outlook has turned more dour. He worries that Mr. Biden will impose new restrictions that will cripple the economy, including a nationwide lockdown, a charge that Mr. Trump repeatedly leveled against Mr. Biden, though Mr. Biden did not call for such a lockdown.

A lockdown will kill this country, Mr. Keyston said.

Big partisan shifts in confidence have become common following elections in recent decades. Republicans economic sentiment fell when Barack Obama was elected president in 2008, then soared when Mr. Trump was elected in 2016. Republicans self-reported confidence remained well above Democrats for the entire Trump administration, until the election caused the pattern to reverse again.

It reflects what weve seen in the survey data the whole time, which is that everyone is tying their own political beliefs to their views of the economy, said Laura Wronski, a research scientist for SurveyMonkey. Its just kind of crazy to see how entrenched these beliefs are.

Democrats views of the economy have also shifted after elections, but generally less than Republicans, a pattern that was particularly stark this year. Ms. Wronski said enthusiasm among Democrats might have been tempered because they did not see the election as an unmitigated victory.

Janet Garrow, a survey respondent in Seattle, said that she thought Mr. Biden would do a better job with the economy than Mr. Trump, but that she didnt expect a quick rebound from the pandemic-induced recession.

I think the economic impact is devastating, and its going to take people decades to recover, she said.

A retired judge, Ms. Garrow, 67, said her own finances are stable. But she said the economy wasnt working for many Americans even before the pandemic.

There was a lot of stagnation, she said. Sure, you might have had a job, but did your wage or your salary go up with what your cost of living really was?

Ms. Garrow, a Democrat, said she supported many of Mr. Bidens signature policy proposals, such as raising taxes on the wealthy and making public colleges free to students from middle-class families.

Perhaps more surprising, some of Mr. Bidens proposals earn support from Republican voters. More than four in 10 Republicans support raising taxes on people earning more than $400,000 a year. Three-quarters of Republicans support a proposal to guarantee paid sick leave to workers during the coronavirus pandemic.

Liberal economists with links to Mr. Biden say the results show the popularity of his plans and the challenges of reaching out to supporters of Mr. Trump whose economic hopes were low before he won the 2016 election.

We live in a country where, for all of our lives, we have seen economic inequality increase across incomes, across wealth, across firms, said Heather Boushey, an economist whom Mr. Biden said on Monday he would name to his Council of Economic Advisers. A lot of communities have been left behind. People have become frustrated.

One of the things about Donald Trump is he acknowledged that reality, she said. It would be important for people on both sides of the aisle to continue to acknowledge that.

William Spriggs, the chief economist for the A.F.L.-C.I.O. labor federation, said that the polling reflected the partisan politics now embedded in economic confidence surveys, and that it offered a message to Mr. Biden on the importance of pushing for policies like paid leave that have attracted Republican opposition in Washington.

We absolutely need it, on a zillion levels, Mr. Spriggs said. I think this is going to be the challenge for the administration because things like this, which Americans understand are common sense, doesnt mean its politically feasible. The Republicans who are in office thumb their nose at these polls. The issue is, will the administration take them on?

George R. Hood, a survey respondent in northern Kentucky, said he identified as a political moderate, not a liberal. But he said the country needed to invest more in public health, education and other priorities, and he said it made sense to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy in order to pay for that spending.

I just dont see the socioeconomic situation improving unless were willing to spend a little more money, he said.

About the survey: The data in this article came from an online survey of 3,477 adults conducted by the polling firm SurveyMonkey from Nov. 9 to Nov. 15. The company selected respondents at random from the nearly three million people who take surveys on its platform each day. Responses were weighted to match the demographic profile of the population of the United States. The survey has a modeled error estimate (similar to a margin of error in a standard telephone poll) of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, so differences of less than that amount are statistically insignificant.

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After Biden Win, Nations Republicans Fear the Economy Ahead - The New York Times

Since the election, surveys have consistently found that about 70 percent to 80 percent of Republicans dont buy the results. They dont agree that Joe Biden won fair and square. They say the election was rigged. And they say enough fraud occurred to tip the outcome.

Those numbers sound alarmingly high, and they imply that the overwhelming majority of people in one political party in America doubt the legitimacy of a presidential election. But the reality is more complicated, political scientists say. Research has shown that the answers that partisans (on the left as well as on the right) give to political questions often reflect not what they know as fact, but what they wish were true. Or what they think they should say.

Its incredibly hard to separate sincere belief from wishful thinking from what political scientists call partisan cheerleading. But on this topic especially, the distinctions matter a lot. Are Republican voters merely expressing support for the president by standing by his claims of fraud in effectively the same way Republicans in Congress have or have they accepted widespread fraud as true? Do these surveys suggest a real erosion in faith in American elections, or something more familiar, and temporary?

Its one thing to think that you dont trust the guys in Washington because theyre not your party, said Lonna Atkeson, a political scientist at the University of New Mexico. But its a whole other thing if you think, Well, gee, they didnt even get there legitimately.

She suggested, however, that these results be taken with something between alarm and skepticism.

Tracking surveys, which ask people the same questions over time on topics like the direction of the country or the economy, showed a lot of Republicans responding immediately after the election as if they believed the president had lost. Among Republicans, consumer confidence swiftly dropped, as did the share saying they thought the country was headed in the right direction.

Those results, which mirror past elections, suggest many Republicans knew Mr. Biden would become president. But they dont tell us much about whether Republicans believe he won fairly.

In one survey released today by YouGov and Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists who monitor the state of American democracy, 87 percent of Republicans accurately said that news media decision desks had declared Mr. Biden the winner of the election. That rules out the possibility that many Republicans simply arent aware of that fact.

Still, only about 20 percent of Republicans said they considered a Biden victory the true result. And 49 percent said they expected Mr. Trump to be inaugurated on Jan. 20 a belief thats unreasonably optimistic at this point, said Brendan Nyhan, a Dartmouth political scientist who is part of the research group. Digging deeper, he added, only about half of the group expecting Mr. Trump to be inaugurated also said he was the true winner. The other Republicans expressed instead some uncertainty about the outcome.

Theres a set of people who are true believers that Donald Trump won the election and is going to be inaugurated, but thats a relatively small set, he said. Theres also a small set of people who acknowledge Joe Biden won, but not nearly as many as you would hope.

And theres a lot of people who are at different degrees of acceptance in between.

In that group, political scientists say there are also people who give the equivalent of the party line answer to survey takers, regardless of their real beliefs.

The evidence is strong that a number of people out there, even if they know the truth, will give a cheerleading answer, said Seth Hill, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego. Part of the presidents base appears eager to stick it to the establishment, he said. If those voters interpret surveys about the elections legitimacy as part of that establishment, he said, its quite possible they will use this as another vehicle to express that sentiment.

For other voters, what they sincerely believe and what they want to be true may well be the same thing. And politics can be inseparable from that reasoning.

Research has shown that supporters of the winning candidate in an election consistently have more faith that the election was fair than supporters of the losing candidate do. This pattern is true of both Democrats and Republicans. And when the parties fortunes flip in subsequent elections, peoples answers flip, too.

Even if the magnitudes are bigger now, this tendency to respond in this way has just been with American politics since weve been asking about it, said Michael Sances, a professor at Temple University.

A series of surveys by Morning Consult even suggests that Mr. Bidens win in the election caused Democrats to revise their beliefs about the fairness of past elections. Respondents were asked before the November election if they believed presidential contests going back to 1992 were free and fair. In most of these years, about 65 percent to 70 percent of all registered voters said yes.

But when people were asked these questions again after this years election, Democratic faith in the 2016 election jumped 22 percentage points. It jumped 11 points for the 2000 election.

And so we may not have to wait too long for a clearer answer to whether Republicans have truly lost faith in elections. If their candidates win both Senate runoff races in Georgia in January, a contest with outsize national importance, perhaps Republicans across the country will decide that elections are fair after all.

One interpretation of this pattern is that our regularly alternating election outcomes mean that no one side gets wedded for too long to the idea that the whole enterprise is broken.

But all of these researchers emphasized that there was something new this year: One candidate in this election, the sitting president, has refused to concede and is himself working to undermine the results.

In 2000, people had the sense that there was an unfairness in the process that had to do with technology; it wasnt driven by partisan politics, said Betsy Sinclair, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis. And there was a sense that we could fix that problem, she said, with updated voting machines and new legislation.

The dispiriting thing for political scientists looking at 2020 is this isnt a technical problem, she said. There isnt an engineering solution. This is a much more complicated problem that has to do with the incentives of elites to stoke anger in the American population. Thats not something we can solve by coming up with a different ballot casting process.

It will take more time, she said, before we know if the presidents messages will leave a lasting impression on Republicans. Its clear that they have had an effect in the immediate term. One recent experiment found that among Mr. Trumps supporters, people shown Twitter messages by the president attacking democratic norms lost confidence in elections.

In another recent survey experiment conducted by Brian Schaffner, Alexandra Haver and Brendan Hartnett at Tufts, supporters of Mr. Trump were asked shortly before Election Day how they would want him to respond if he lost, depending on the degree of the loss: if they would want him to concede and commit to a peaceful transfer or power, or resist the results and use any means to remain in office.

About 40 percent wanted him to take the latter option if he lost in the Electoral College and lost the national popular vote by only a percentage point or two. But roughly the same share wanted the president to contest the election even if he lost the popular vote by 10 to 12 points. That suggests, Mr. Schaffner said, that a significant share of the presidents supporters dont necessarily believe the election was fraudulent. Rather, they were prepared to support the presidents contesting of the election no matter what.

Other evidence shows that Republicans actually felt fairly good about how their votes were handled this year. In a large Pew survey, 72 percent of Trump voters said they were confident their vote was accurately counted. And 93 percent said voting was easy for them. That paints a different picture of how these voters view the electoral process that played out closest to them, even as many said elections this year werent run well nationally.

Voters have often said in surveys that they have more confidence in elections in their community or state than they do in voting across the country. That may be a useful insight for this moment, too: It means that the presidents sweeping claims about election fraud wont necessarily dissuade Republicans in Georgia in January. They probably have more faith in their local election workers and precinct offices than these surveys suggest they have for the country.

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Most Republicans Say They Doubt the Election. How Many Really Mean It? - The New York Times